May 12th is Happy St. FitzMagic Day!

[32EBoozer]

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/05/09/may-12-could-dust-off-free-agent-market/

May 12 could dust off free-agent market

Free agency opened two months ago today. In three days, the market could get a kick in the butt. Even if the shelves are largely empty.

May 12 is the date on which free-agent signings don’t count toward the determination of compensatory draft picks. For a team that signs a free agent after May 12, it doesn’t reduce its potential haul of compensatory picks. For a team that loses a free agent after May 12, the move doesn’t increase its compensatory selections.

The formula never applies to players who were released, like former Texans running back Arian Foster. But for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and defensive end Greg Hardy, for example, signing either or both as of May 12 means that there will be no impact on their news team’s (or teams’) compensatory selections in 2017. And, in turn, there will be no bump for the Jets and/or the Cowboys.

Appearing earlier in the day on PFT Live, Lions G.M. Bob Quinn predicted that there could indeed be some activity later this week — but he added that he doesn’t anticipate the Lions making any moves. Either way, check back on Thursday to see if anything happens.

We hope you’ll check back repeatedly before then. Because we’d prefer not to become free agents the Arian Foster way.

[joewilly12]

[slats]

This date has no effect on the Jets. It's for other teams who might be interested in signing him. If there are any. 

[Sperm Edwards]

12 minutes ago, slats said:

This date has no effect on the Jets. It's for other teams who might be interested in signing him. If there are any. 

Well it means anyone who thought the Jets were maybe just going to accept defeat and release Mo outright can put this fantasy to bed. 

It also means the Jets wouldn't have potentially lost a compensatory pick by signing him prior to that date (which was discussed here as recently as the past ~10 days). Now in 2 1/2 days we will know with 100% certainty that no one else was going to sign him if we didn't, so any lost compensatory pick would have been purely imaginary.

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, slats said:

This date has no effect on the Jets. It's for other teams who might be interested in signing him. If there are any. 

Yep... forgot that it doesn't apply to a team resigning their own FA

[77DRAFT]

Fitz is looking for min. 14 mil.  as of now, if he sticks to that price, he is essentially retired.  He has a neg value to the Jets, hope Mac sees that.

[Jetster]

15 hours ago, 77DRAFT said:

Fitz is looking for min. 14 mil.  as of now, if he sticks to that price, he is essentially retired.  He has a neg value to the Jets, hope Mac sees that.

Who the hell would sign Fitz to a 14 million $ contract? Seriously. So many teams have drafted QBs lately. More QBs were drafted this year than the last 10 drafts. Bill Obrien chose Hoyer over Fitz? (Probably injury related with the broken leg) but still. Just roll through the other 31 teams & try to imagine any one of those teams giving Fitz 14 mill. Back up $s are anywhere from 3-7 million. 

The Jets are the only team that would name him a starter in 2016. I want a bigger arm with the offensive weapons we have now. If he'll play for 7 for 1 year than fine, but I'm not adding cap $s next year for a stopgap QB.

[Dcat]

17 hours ago, slats said:

This date has no effect on the Jets. It's for other teams who might be interested in signing him. If there are any. 

Sure it does.

Per Over-The-Cap, if another team signs Fitz by 5/12, we'll likely get a 4th round comp pick for losing Snacks.  If no one signs him by that date, then our 3 qualified UFA acquisitions (Forte, McLendon, Jarvis Jenkins) will negate all 3 qualified UFA losses (Ivory, Snacks D. Davis) and the Jets get nada in the form of 2017 comp picks.  

 

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

[32EBoozer]

49 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Sure it does.

Per Over-The-Cap, if another team signs Fitz by 5/12, we'll likely get a 4th round comp pick for losing Snacks.  If no one signs him by that date, then our 3 qualified UFA acquisitions (Forte, McLendon, Jarvis Jenkins) will negate all 3 qualified UFA losses (Ivory, Snacks D. Davis) and the Jets get nada in the form of 2017 comp picks.  

 

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

Maccagnan is very confident in getting a 4th rd. Comp pick next year.

He said as much when explaining why he traded a 2017 4th for a 2016 5th.

I trust Jason @ OTC but I'm hoping MacDaddy has the inside scoop on this one.

[Dcat]

4 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Maccagnan is very confident in getting a 4th rd. Comp pick next year.

He said as much when explaining why he traded a 2017 4th for a 2016 5th.

I trust Jason @ OTC but I'm hoping MacDaddy has the inside scoop on this one.

Nope.  Jason's site is right.  As it stands, he already has 2 too many comp picks (34) when the max is 32.  If Fitz is unsigned by 5/12, we are done.  No comp picks.  

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

Sure it does.

Per Over-The-Cap, if another team signs Fitz by 5/12, we'll likely get a 4th round comp pick for losing Snacks.  If no one signs him by that date, then our 3 qualified UFA acquisitions (Forte, McLendon, Jarvis Jenkins) will negate all 3 qualified UFA losses (Ivory, Snacks D. Davis) and the Jets get nada in the form of 2017 comp picks.  

 

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

This was my count as well last week after fully counting everyone. Wish I saw this page on Jason's site, as it would have saved me from looking this stuff up myself.

Jarvis Jenkins. We traded a 4th round pick next year so we could offer Jarvis Jenkins a 2-year contract. Jarvis Jenkins, who we'll cut after 1 year if we/he can't justify his near-$4M cap number in 2017 to back up Williams + Mo or Sheldon (or Williams + Mo and Sheldon). Particularly if the team now does work out a lt deal with Mo after whiffing on getting value for trading him again.

This signing of a UFA who counts in the comp pick formula, IMO, shows me how much they were all-in on dealing Mo. Not because he's nearly as good as Mo, or to start for us, but rather it looks like the plan (after trading Mo) was to go Williams/Sheldon, and wanted Jenkins as a starter-worthy stopgap in case of injury, in case Sheldon got suspended, or to just rotate a cheaper guy in instead of trying to find playing time for all 3 of our must-start DEs for a premium price. Especially in a year we don't even have a good+known starting QB again. 

As right as we played league-wide perception of Fitzpatrick's worth, and Ferguson's value as well, we got it equally wrong on others' perceptions of Mo's worth. The casualty of that misread is trading a 4th round pick and millions for a 1-2 yr contract for Jenkins to be a backup.

So now we have a 4th string DE-DT that counts millions against the cap, potentially for only 1 season, for whom we used another of next year's 4th round draft picks (we've now used both of them). 

[Dcat]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This was my count as well last week after fully counting everyone. Wish I saw this page on Jason's site, as it would have saved me from looking this stuff up myself.

Jarvis Jenkins. We traded a 4th round pick next year so we could offer Jarvis Jenkins a 2-year contract. Jarvis Jenkins, who we'll cut after 1 year if we/he can't justify his near-$4M cap number in 2017 to back up Williams + Mo or Sheldon (or Williams + Mo and Sheldon). Particularly if the team now does work out a lt deal with Mo after whiffing on getting value for trading him again.

This signing of a UFA who counts in the comp pick formula, IMO, shows me how much they were all-in on dealing Mo. Not because he's nearly as good as Mo, or to start for us, but rather it looks like the plan (after trading Mo) was to go Williams/Sheldon, and wanted Jenkins as a starter-worthy stopgap in case of injury, in case Sheldon got suspended, or to just rotate a cheaper guy in instead of trying to find playing time for all 3 of our must-start DEs for a premium price. Especially in a year we don't even have a good+known starting QB again. 

As right as we played league-wide perception of Fitzpatrick's worth, and Ferguson's value as well, we got it equally wrong on others' perceptions of Mo's worth. The casualty of that misread is trading a 4th round pick and millions for a 1-2 yr contract for Jenkins to be a backup.

So now we have a 4th string DE-DT that counts millions against the cap, potentially for only 1 season, for whom we used another of next year's 4th round draft picks (we've now used both of them). 

exactly.  Mac fokced this one up. I'll give him a pass on it this time, but geez, if you and I can figure out how this works by reading over-the-cap, then Mac should be able to do so as well.  How hard is it keeping in mind the balance between UFAs acquired and lost?  Really, you don't need to be a math major to do this.

[Savage69]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

exactly.  Mac fokced this one up. I'll give him a pass on it this time, but geez, if you and I can figure out how this works by reading over-the-cap, then Mac should be able to do so as well.  How hard is it keeping in mind the balance between UFAs acquired and lost?  Really, you don't need to be a math major to do this.

Screw Ron Wolf and Charlie Casserly why Woody doesn't ask Max to use JN to find the right poster for his GM is beyond me.. Use of Woody's private suite would all Max would ask..

[CrazyCarl40]

6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This was my count as well last week after fully counting everyone. Wish I saw this page on Jason's site, as it would have saved me from looking this stuff up myself.

Jarvis Jenkins. We traded a 4th round pick next year so we could offer Jarvis Jenkins a 2-year contract. Jarvis Jenkins, who we'll cut after 1 year if we/he can't justify his near-$4M cap number in 2017 to back up Williams + Mo or Sheldon (or Williams + Mo and Sheldon). Particularly if the team now does work out a lt deal with Mo after whiffing on getting value for trading him again.

This signing of a UFA who counts in the comp pick formula, IMO, shows me how much they were all-in on dealing Mo. Not because he's nearly as good as Mo, or to start for us, but rather it looks like the plan (after trading Mo) was to go Williams/Sheldon, and wanted Jenkins as a starter-worthy stopgap in case of injury, in case Sheldon got suspended, or to just rotate a cheaper guy in instead of trying to find playing time for all 3 of our must-start DEs for a premium price. Especially in a year we don't even have a good+known starting QB again. 

As right as we played league-wide perception of Fitzpatrick's worth, and Ferguson's value as well, we got it equally wrong on others' perceptions of Mo's worth. The casualty of that misread is trading a 4th round pick and millions for a 1-2 yr contract for Jenkins to be a backup.

So now we have a 4th string DE-DT that counts millions against the cap, potentially for only 1 season, for whom we used another of next year's 4th round draft picks (we've now used both of them). 

Not to beat a dead horse, but it would have made just as much sense to bring back Bowen or Douzable, who were both more than capable of handling those snaps. It would have cost a lot less in money and in potential compensatory picks. I mean, I like Matt Forte as a player, like 5 years ago. Signing him now at his price tag when they could have had a comparable back in the 2nd or 3rd round for much cheaper seems silly to me too. But, sometimes you can't see the forest.

[JiFtheOracle]

Geno, Petty, Hack - ride or die.

Bye bye Fitz, thanks for a fun season.  Nice knowing ya!

[munchmemory]

4 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Not to beat a dead horse, but it would have made just as much sense to bring back Bowen or Douzable, who were both more than capable of handling those snaps. It would have cost a lot less in money and in potential compensatory picks. I mean, I like Matt Forte as a player, like 5 years ago. Signing him now at his price tag when they could have had a comparable back in the 2nd or 3rd round for much cheaper seems silly to me too. But, sometimes you can't see the forest.

Said the same thing when we signed him.  I'll be in shock (happy) if he makes it through the season or has a kick ass year.  This is such a Jet signing.

[Sperm Edwards]

47 minutes ago, Dcat said:

exactly.  Mac fokced this one up. I'll give him a pass on it this time, but geez, if you and I can figure out how this works by reading over-the-cap, then Mac should be able to do so as well.  How hard is it keeping in mind the balance between UFAs acquired and lost?  Really, you don't need to be a math major to do this.

If he really thought we were still getting a 4th rounder after he signed 3 UFAs that cancel the 3 UFAs we lost, then it's gross negligence. Hopefully the scout part of Maccagnan shines and this kid Shell pans out. That would majorly soften the blow of purely wasting a 4th rounder (and millions in cap space) for a 4th string DE-DT. Or hopefully something unannounced has changed from the way the formula has worked every single year for every single team prior to the 2017 draft.

On the heels of this, I also have to admit that I'm a bit nervous that Elway is now alluding to Lynch not needing to sit for 1-2 full years like many/most said, and Kubiak is also expecting him to pick things up pretty quickly based on what he's seen so far in minicamp. Hopefully they're full of wind doing fluffy PR and in Lynch is really just a strong-armed meathead who will totally suck. 

[Sperm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Not to beat a dead horse, but it would have made just as much sense to bring back Bowen or Douzable, who were both more than capable of handling those snaps. It would have cost a lot less in money and in potential compensatory picks. I mean, I like Matt Forte as a player, like 5 years ago. Signing him now at his price tag when they could have had a comparable back in the 2nd or 3rd round for much cheaper seems silly to me too. But, sometimes you can't see the forest.

See, the Forte signing I'm fine with. Same with Powell. Especially for a team who wants to bring along a young QB; a RB in that mold will be of immense help to that cause. What is more questionable than Forte or Powell is Forte and Powell, since not signing/re-signing either one would have resulted in a compensatory pick (not to mention the pair will count some $10M on next year's cap). Then signing Jenkins on top of that cost another draft pick.

RB is a young man's position and RBs come out every year,. Also I agree with you: Douzable would have cost nothing and is more than adequate as a 4th stringer (unless Bowles just hated him or there's something else we don't know about him). 

Trading away both a 4th and a 5th round pick (which are now trade-able) next year, to sign 2 veteran backups for about 2 years each, is not good use of those draft pick assets. Particularly for a GM whose formative training - and main qualification for the GM position - was his years of experience in grading college talent, who looks like he knows how to find good talent with those picks. You trade mid-round picks away to get veteran starters, not veteran backups. 

Anyway, I can rationalize the two RBs when we're trying to build up a project QB, since doing so is just that important. But it's no slam dunk decision to sign both, and the Jenkins signing on top of that makes the package look like just a waste of draft picks.