Kirwan on Fitz

[nyjunc]

one thing he says is Geno is 4-10 against AFC east(which isn't true he's 4-7 which is 36%) but Fitz has a longer track record in the AFC east and his record is 9-18(33%)

[Sperm Edwards]

Kirwin may have no idea and may only be getting his info from the same published sources we've read.  He wouldn't be the first. However, iif he is right about the total offer being closer to what we thought it was a month or more ago, then that $11M figure that was recently leaked - that Fitzpatrick has turned down - may just be the guaranteed portion of the Jets' current offer, rather than the annual amount of the Jets' current offer. As in ~$7M/year x 3 years with $11M guaranteed. 

Even if it's the annual rate, if/when he's re-signed the team shouldn't need to move around enough to clear $11M this year. I'm sure there still would be 2nd/3rd years on any deal, even if as low as $0 of it was guaranteed. As such, the Jets could (and likely would) throw Fitzpatrick a signing bonus to lessen this year's cap number. They'd still have to free up some more space for 2016, but not nearly as much as people think. Not unless it's literally a 1 year deal for $11M or more, without so much as a team option for 2017, and I'd be surprised to see that happen.

[RutgersJetFan]

4 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Another Fitz thread there is already 1 started Ryan Fitzpatrick MERGED

 

Tsk tsk. Hasn't Max told you like a billion times to stop telling people what they should or shouldn't post? Then you apologize like a frightened puppy, only to do it again soon enough.

[Smashmouth]

3 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

This is a respectable position iif you're making a case to pay Fitz. It wouldnt convince me though. 

Fitz  went 1-6 against teams who scored 21 or more points with the jets which means that he lost 85% of those games. 

For his career, he's 8-50 in those cames lifetime and in the last four years he's 2-24 in those games, losing 92% of the time over the past 4 seasons leading up to be a Jet. 

This is Ryan Fitzpatrick in a nutshell.

 

He can talk about all those exotic stats until he's blue in the face. However, this is a straight forward fact that his career historically will support. The Jets face 5 playoff teams and a Bills team that swept them in their first 6 weeks to start the season. If Fitz is the QB and if any of those playoff teams score 21 or more points the Jets have an 8% chance of winning the game based on Fitz last 4 years, or a 15% chance of winning the game based on his entire career including last season. And that's against any team that scores those points. Now take into consideration that we're playing the seahawks, steelers, cardinals, chiefs and bengals. All teams (outside of the chiefs) known for their offensive ability to put up points. 

The Jets based on Fitz own career stats could start the season 1-5 heading into their match up against the Ravens. 

 

I dont care how much Nick Foles or Sam Bradford are being paid. Everyone outside of those organizations who follows football knew that those contracts were stupid to begin with, so why should the Jets use that as some sort of measuring stick when it was idiotic in the first place? 

Those deals were so idiotic that not only did those teams swap their QB's then pay them crazy money, but those same teams both mortgaged their future in order to pick #1 and #2 in the draft this year to draft.....quarterbacks! 

 

 

 

actually that's a run first defensive minded football team that really didn't play good defense at times. Its obvious no matter who is at the QB position the Jets are not going to be flinging the ball all over the field putting up video game type numbers. The Jets run a ball control offense and try to play mistake free football controlling the clock. 31 Td's in such an offense is quite the accomplishment no need to throw 30 - 1 yard TD's like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady do every year. Not to compare but its a fact Tom and Peyton have some padded stats in the TD category since all they do is throw the football 50 times a game.

That being said The Jets are not getting a Tom Brady or a Peyton manning anytime soon because they simply do not run that type of offense and I suspect Bowles never will so don't hold your breath.

[ylekram]

3 hours ago, flgreen said:

Obviously I did.  My apologies 

thanx but no need

[Villain The Foe]

3 hours ago, ylekram said:

nope. 1-5. geno gets credit for oakland

The starter gets the credit for the outcome. But whatever, that 1 retraction only help you sleep at at night. lol

So instead of Fitz losing 85% of those games last year he lost 83% of them. Instead of his lifetime win/loss stat being 8-50, its officially 8-49. Good job! 

 

[Villain The Foe]

3 hours ago, bitonti said:

 

the free market exists, whether we believe in it or not 

 

the stat crunching you do to justify not paying Fitz is based in truth. He's a bad starter but a starter nonetheless.  

A free market means that you're "free" to believe what a particular commodity is worth to you. The market isnt only considered a free one when you're jumping out the window on prices. 

The free market is about maximizing your dollar potential. Some people know how to do that, the rest try to justify the poor spending (Nick Foles, Sam Bradford). 

[ylekram]

7 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

The starter gets the credit for the outcome. But whatever, that 1 retraction only help you sleep at at night. lol

So instead of Fitz losing 85% of those games last year he lost 83% of them. Instead of his lifetime win/loss stat being 8-50, its officially 8-49. Good job! 

 

this isn't baseball. it has very little meaning to me. however, I know, you know, and the whole board knows that if geno pulled off the victory in Oakland, you wouldn't credit the victory to fitz. lets keep it real,vtf

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, ylekram said:

this isn't baseball. it has very little meaning to me. however, I know, you know, and the whole board knows that if geno pulled off the victory in Oakland, you wouldn't credit the victory to fitz. lets keep it real,vtf

8-49. 

[ylekram]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

8-49. 

9-0

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, ylekram said:

9-0

No playoffs. 

[ylekram]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

No playoffs. 

you got me there. but I think that changes this year, for the jets anyways

[Villain The Foe]

6 minutes ago, ylekram said:

you got me there. but I think that changes this year, for the jets anyways

Well, I'll be anticipating your response or silence come week 17 if Fitz finds a team this year! 

[ylekram]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

Well, I'll be anticipating your response or silence if Fitz finds a team this year! 

its all but written in stone that fitz will sign with the jets. you know this

[Rangers9]

Look you're talking about giving the guy maybe 2 years max at probably 20 mil or10 per. After that maybe a few incentives. It's not going to break the bank when you have an over 150 mil cap.There are no guarantees that he isn't going to suck. We all know that. But based on last year when he was good. And he played well with Houston, too. It's worth taking an educated gamble. It's a lot less of a risk percentage wise than starting Geno who did get a chance and a lot of chances. Guys who didn't get a chance were good Qbs who ended up as 3rd stringers or on practice squads and never even got one start. So what's the big deal. If Fitz is terrible then the great Geno can come in and save the season. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one. 

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Smashmouth said:

actually that's a run first defensive minded football team that really didn't play good defense at times. Its obvious no matter who is at the QB position the Jets are not going to be flinging the ball all over the field putting up video game type numbers. The Jets run a ball control offense and try to play mistake free football controlling the clock. 31 Td's in such an offense is quite the accomplishment no need to throw 30 - 1 yard TD's like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady do every year. Not to compare but its a fact Tom and Peyton have some padded stats in the TD category since all they do is throw the football 50 times a game.

That being said The Jets are not getting a Tom Brady or a Peyton manning anytime soon because they simply do not run that type of offense and I suspect Bowles never will so don't hold your breath.

Are you saying the Jets run this antiquated offense because they choose to? and not because they don't have a QB to execute anything better?

[ylekram]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Are you saying the Jets run this antiquated offense because they choose to? and not because they don't have a QB to execute anything better?

right on the money. in case you didn't notice the qb depot has been close for the jets for quite some time now

[Villain The Foe]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

Phillip Rivers went 3-10 against teams who scored 21 or more points, meaning he lost 77% of those games.

Drew Brees went 4-9 against teams who scored 21 or more points.

Eli Manning went 3-9 against teams who scored 21 or more points.

Russell Wilson went 1-7 against teams who scored 21 or more points (including the playoffs).

Even Aaron Rodgers only went 3-4 in such games.

Most teams lose most of the games they play when their Defense allows 21 points or more.

It's things like this that make me question your analytical skills, as even a cursory glance at other QB's shows this isn't a valid criticism, and isn't even a specific reflection on the QB himself, but on the Defense (primarily) and the ability of the offense (as a whole) to score high numbers of points in a game (second) in which their defense is performing poorly.

A great example of how numbers, when willfully manipulative/dishonest intent is in play, and without context or detail, can be less than useless.

No, that's NFL QB's not named "Tom Brady" in a nutshell.

 

Wow! Great response by the way. First time I seen a Fitz supporter be presented with facts and they go dig up some facts of their own instead of responding with "Geno sucks". 

 

Back on topic. Whats their career percentage? Also, have any of those guys while accumulating these percentages make the playoff's? Maybe win some superbowls? 

Rivers giving his team a 23% chance of winning such a game  isnt like Fitz 15% with the Jets

Brees giving his team a 31% chance of winning such a game, especially when you play 13 total games where the opponent scored 21 or more points is the difference between Brees and Fitz 15% 

Manning giving his team a 25% chance of winning such a game when he played 12 total games where the opponent scored 21 or more points is the difference between Manning and Fitz 15%

Rodgers giving his team a 43% chance of winning such a game when playing in 7 just like Fitz did, shows the difference between Rogers 3-4 record and Fitz 1-6 record with the Jets. (15%)

Wilson giving his team a 12.5% chance of winning such a game against teams like Green Bay, Cincy, Carolina, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis while STILL MAKING THE PLAYOFFS is much different than Fitz 15% chance of winning against teams like Philly, New England, Oakland, Buffalo, Buffalo (again), Houston and Jacksonville. And please note, all of those teams mentioned (outside of St.Louis) under Russell Wilson are PLAYOFF TEAMS, which shows the level of competition. Only NE was a playoff team on Fitz list. Big difference. 

 

As a side note, I respect this effort. You didnt Geno bash, you didnt get all emotional, you went out and found some stats to present. Thats respectable. Please make sure to pass the message along to the other people so things like this can occur more often. 

 

You most definitely get props for that!

[Villain The Foe]

16 minutes ago, ylekram said:

its all but written in stone that fitz will sign with the jets. you know this

I see my boy Geno at OTA's. Fitz meanwhile is playing golf protecting his feelings somewhere! lol. 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

9 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Wow! Great response by the way. First time I seen a Fitz supporter be presented with facts and they go dig of some facts of their own instead of responding with "Geno sucks". 

 

Back on topic. Whats their career percentage? Also, have any of those guys while accumulating these percentages make the playoff's? Maybe win some superbowls? 

Rivers giving his team a 23% chance of winning such a game  isnt like Fitz 8% chance over the past 4 seasons. 

Brees giving his team a 31% chance of winning such a game, especially when you play 13 total games where the opponent scored 21 or more points is the difference between Brees and Fitz 8% 

Manning giving his team a 25% chance of winning such a game when he played 12 total games where the opponent scored 21 or more points is the difference between Manning and Fitz 8%. 

Rodgers giving his team a 43% chance of winning such a game when playing in 7 just like Fitz did, shows the difference between Rogers 3-4 record and Fitz 1-6 record. 

Wilson giving his team a 12.5% chance of winning such a game against teams like Green Bay, Cincy, Carolina, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis while STILL MAKING THE PLAYOFFS is much different than Fitz 15% chance of winning against teams like Philly, New England, Oakland, Buffalo, Buffalo (again), Houston and Jacksonville. And please note, all of those teams mentioned (outside of St.Louis) under Russell Wilson are PLAYOFF TEAMS, which shows the level of competition. Only NE was a playoff team on Fitz list. Big difference. 

 

As a side note, I respect this effort. You didnt Geno bash, you didnt get all emotional, you went out and found some stats to present. Thats respectable. Please make sure to pass the message along to the other people so things like this can occur more often. 

 

You most definitely get props for that!

past four seasons. The argument sank right there. Compare Fitz last year as a Jet. Otherwise this is an exercise in futility.

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

past four seasons. The argument sank right there. Compare Fitz last year as a Jet. Otherwise this is an exercise in futility.

I'll change it right now. 

[Villain The Foe]

2 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

past four seasons. The argument sank right there. Compare Fitz last year as a Jet. Otherwise this is an exercise in futility.

Hey, updated. Go read! 

[Smashmouth]

28 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Are you saying the Jets run this antiquated offense because they choose to? and not because they don't have a QB to execute anything better?

yes the jets run a ball control offense

Why did Gary Kubiak take over the reigns in Denver with a QB who had thrown 94 TD's the previous 2 years and turn that into a ball control offense ? Time of Possession, Rested Defense, SB victory.

These high end offenses don't win many SB's complete teams do and sound strategy does.

how many SB's did Peyton Mannings 94 TD's get ?

[Villain The Foe]

3 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

yes the jets run a ball control offense

Why did Gary Kubiak take over the reigns in Denver with a QB who had thrown 94 TD's the previous 2 years and turn that into a ball control offense ? Time of Possession, Rested Defense, SB victory.

These high end offenses don't win many SB's complete teams do and sound strategy does.

Because that QB wasnt the same QB who threw those 94 TD's the previous 2 years. 

[Smashmouth]

18 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

I see my boy Geno at OTA's. Fitz meanwhile is playing golf protecting his feelings somewhere! lol. 

you're boy Geno

LOL

One of the worst QB's in the history of this team and this league and he's you're boy ?

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

you're boy Geno

LOL

One of the worst QB's in the history of this team and this league and he's you're boy ?

[Smashmouth]

1 minute ago, Villain The Foe said:

Because that QB wasnt the same QB who threw those 94 TD's the previous 2 years. 

He absolutly was ....Kubiak took over the offense and changed it. Peyton no longer ran the offense like he did in previous years and it obviously affected him.

[Smashmouth]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

stop the bullsh*t Villain we discussed this and you even gave me credit in the thread now you're using it against me ? That's pretty petty sh*t./ BTW how did he do in the SB ?

[Villain The Foe]

2 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

He absolutly was ....Kubiak took over the offense and changed it. Peyton no longer ran the offense like he did in previous years and it obviously affected him.

Dude, you should  be banned from all quarterback talk! lol. Im gonna excuse myself now! 

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

stop the bullsh*t Villain we discussed this and you even gave me credit in the thread now you're using it against me ? That's pretty petty sh*t./ BTW how did he do in the SB ?

Relax, im throwing rocks! 

Take a joke bro!

[Smashmouth]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

Dude, you should  be banned from all quarterback talk! lol. Im gonna excuse myself now! 

So a guy who threw 94 TD's just fell off the face of the earth in one off season ? No my friend its you who needs to be Banned because all you see is one thing. Kubiack changed that offense and It simply did not Fit Manning at ALL.

[Villain The Foe]

2 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

So a guy who threw 94 TD's just fell off the face of the earth in one off season ? No my friend its you who needs to be Banned because all you see is one thing. Kubiack changed that offense and It simply did not Fit Manning at ALL.

Dude, stop. 

[Colgateman]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Prove it.  With numbers, not hot air.  Because I don't think you can.

Then, prove that Geno Smith in his two years was better at "not giving the opponent a short field" than Fitz was in 2015.

Because I don't think you can.

If you can't prove those two things, it's just what I said at the start, typical fan hyperbole.  I.e. Bullsh*t.

Okay defensive rankings for the following elite quarterbacks teams:

Phillip RIvers- San Diego Chargers, 20th ranked defense 

Drew Brees- 31st ranked defense, which gave up 45 passing touchdowns

 Eli manning- Giants 32 ranked defense, which couldn't hold on to leads to save their life. The giants would of won 11 games had games ended 2 minutes earlier and their defense didn't have to go on the field again, Example: Cowboys game, Saints game, Jets game, and Patriots game. 

Even though these teams defense sucked, The Chargers were the 4th best passing team, and had the 9th ranked offense

Drew Brees led saints had the best passing game, and second ranked offense

and Eli's Giants had the 7th, also the 8th ranked offense

So from those numbers, these guys losing was not a fault of their own, as I already told you, it was the fault of their defense, which as you asked for the numbers support.

Now on to the second part of what I told you:  Russell Wilson having a terrible offensive line

According to PFF Wilson's line was the 30th ranked one, with the 27th ranked pass protection. Seattle allowed Wilson to get sacked 46 times, not even counting the amount of times Russell Wilson was able to escape instant pressure, and Russell Wilson was still the second most pressured quarterback of 2015, behind Teddy Bridgewater. 1:11 in this video is the perfect example of what Russell Wilson went through all of last year https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1knwLceAAa0

How can a quarterback under pressure run a successful 2 minute drill?

So, that debunks your Wilson theory.

On to my last point: Aaron ROdgers played without his top target all year:
Jordy Nelson tore his ACL before the season even began http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000514941/article/jordy-nelson-out-for-2015-season-with-knee-injury

Randall Cobb played with a ACL sprain for half the year.

How do you expect a quarterback to win big games without a top target? It is obvious teams can't get into shootouts without the guy who makes their offense tick, isn't it?

So there, I proved it for you with numbers, and also things that happened.

[Colgateman]

20 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

He absolutly was ....Kubiak took over the offense and changed it. Peyton no longer ran the offense like he did in previous years and it obviously affected him.

Holy ******* Hell.

So Kubiak changing the offense caused Peyton Manning to throw 17 interceptions in 8 games?

Manning declined, you baboon.

[Villain The Foe]

18 minutes ago, Colgateman said:

 

 Eli manning- Giants 32 ranked defense, which couldn't hold on to leads to save their life.

Unless of course its Fitzpatrick and the Jets, which the Giants did hold their position. It was Tom Coughlin making a dumb decision to go for it on 4th and 2 instead of taking the chip field goal which is what sent that game into overtime. 

If Tom Coughlin didnt put his team in a bad spot and New England would have accepted the ball in overtime we wouldnt even be having this Fitz conversation.