#90 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 A new version came out today. Can someone please post it? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prime21 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Menu ESPN SCORES NFL Home Free Agency Draft Scores Schedule Standings Stats Teams Top Stories for All 32 NFL Nation Power Rankings Football Power Index Injury Wire Monday Night HQ Rumors Transactions Chalk Odds Expert Picks PickCenter Pro Bowl Tickets Insider Kiper's 2017 Big Board: A post-combine shake-up play Foster could still be top-10 pick (0:59) Facebook Twitter Facebook Messenger Pinterest Email comment 8:07 AM ET Mel Kiper Jr.Football analyst The NFL combine is over, and we're 43 days from the 2017 draft, which means it's time for an update to my Big Board. The changes in this edition include a shake-up among the top wide receivers, the re-entry of a quarterback who had been included during the season, and the rise -- more than 10 spots -- of an SEC pass-catcher. Come back next week for Mock Draft 3.0, and check out Todd McShay's third mock here. Here we go: One asterisk denotes a junior, and two asterisks denote a redshirt sophomore for the 2016 season. 1. *Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M Previous rank: 1 Garrett ran a ridiculous 4.64 40-yard dash and had a 41-inch vertical jump and 10-foot-8 broad jump, all at 6-foot-4, 272 pounds, at the combine. He cemented his stock as my No. 1 prospect, he'll stay at No. 1 to the Browns in Mock Draft 3.0. Garrett had a frustrating 2016 season, hampered by a high ankle sprain he suffered in late September, and his 8.5 sacks were down from his freshman total of 11.5 and sophomore total of 12.5. When he's on, he's a brilliant, natural pass-rusher. 2. Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama Previous rank: 2 Allen was one of the top two or three defenders in the country the past two seasons. After having 12 sacks in 2015, he had 10.5 more in 2016, including one in Alabama's national title game loss. I wrote in October about Allen's performance against Texas A&M, in which he had a signature sack and returned a fumble for a touchdown. Defensive end, defensive tackle -- at 6-3, 286 pounds, Allen can play anywhere on the line, and in a 4-3 or 3-4 defense. Plus, coach Nick Saban loves him. 3. **Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford Previous rank: 5 A third-year sophomore, Thomas has steadily risen over the past year and now he's in the mix to be a top-five pick. He put up solid numbers at the combine and showed off the explosion that I saw on tape. Thomas plays like a veteran, causing disruptions in both the running and passing games. He had eight sacks in 2016 while playing end, but at 6-3, 273 pounds, he could move inside and play tackle. The versatility is what stands out. And he has some speed -- he ran a 4.69 40, and check out this fumble return. 4. **Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State Previous rank: 7 At the combine, Lattimore ran a 4.36 40 and had a 38.5-inch vertical and 11-foot broad jump, all three ranking in the top 10 among defensive backs. He's an athletic phenom who doesn't have a ton of experience. Lattimore (6-0, 193) was a first-year starter in 2016 who struggled with a hamstring injury during his first two years in Columbus (and it did tighten up on him at the combine). He was fantastic, standing out in a group of talented defenders and posting four interceptions, including a pick-six. He tackles well and locked down receivers he matched up against. The 2017 cornerback class could be special, and Lattimore is at the top. 5. Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama Previous rank: 3 I'm not dropping Foster too much after his bizarre ejection from the combine, and I don't see him dropping past the top 10 in the draft. He is a big-time inside linebacker who might have been Alabama's best linebacker in 2015. Yes, better than Reggie Ragland, who went in the second round to the Bills in the 2016 draft. Foster (6-0, 229) has more range, runs sideline to sideline and is a more complete player. He's a terrific blitzer too, and recorded five sacks in 2016. I expect him to follow in the footsteps of inside linebackers from Alabama who have gone in the first round, such as Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower and C.J. Mosley. 6. *Jamal Adams, S, LSU Previous rank: 4 Adams put up solid safety numbers at the combine, running a 4.56 40 with a vertical jump of 31.5 inches at 6-0, 214. He was a huge part of LSU's defensive success the past few seasons, even if it doesn't show on the stat sheet; he had one interception, one sack and one forced fumble this past season. He has great bloodlines -- his dad, George Adams, was the No. 19 overall pick in the 1985 NFL draft. He is built for today's NFL as a versatile safety who can play in the box effectively, make tackles against the run and move to the edges and track slot receivers. 7. *Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU Previous rank: 6 A 4.51 40 is a great time for a 240-pound back, but Fournette's 28.5-inch vertical turned some heads, and not in a good way. I still see plenty of explosion when I watch his games. He struggled with a gimpy ankle in 2016 and played in only seven games. Fournette has an incredible combination of speed and power that can make him look like a varsity player hanging with the JV. Mileage was a concern heading into last season, but that's not an issue now. He had a whopping 300 carries in 2015 -- for 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns -- and only 129 in 2016. 8. *Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan Previous rank: 11 Charlton's measurements -- 6-6, 277 with 34¼ arms -- really stood out at the combine, and he tested well. He plays with good leverage for his height, has active hands and takes ideal angles when rushing the passer. Charlton can play on his feet, which means he could fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. He was the best defensive player on the field in Michigan's loss to Ohio State in late November, with 2.5 sacks and nine total tackles, showing off a full arsenal of pass-rushing moves. He finished the season with 9.5 sacks despite missing two games with an ankle injury. 9. *Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State Previous rank: 8 Cook (5-10, 210) is a home run hitter who can turn small creases into massive gains. He finished the 2016 season with 100-yard rushing performances in nine of his last 10 games, including 145 rushing yards and 62 receiving yards in the Orange Bowl win over Michigan. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry -- after averaging 7.4 in 2015 -- and had 33 receptions for 488 yards. With good hands and the ability to find and pick up blitzes, he's versatile. He had a whopping 40 total touchdowns in the past two seasons. 10. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama Previous rank: 21 Howard moves up a few more spots here after standing out at Senior Bowl practices and having a great combine (he ran a 4.51 40 at 6-6, 251, among many other impressive measurements). He wasn't a prolific pass-catcher at Alabama, including only 37 catches last season, but he has all the tools scouts look for in an NFL tight end. He can stretch the deep middle of the field and become a more dynamic weapon. He could be a playmaker in the NFL. Three of his seven career touchdowns came in national title games. 11. Takkarist McKinley, DE, UCLA Previous rank: 12 Pac-12 offensive tackles had nightmares last season about McKinley, who is a dominant speed rusher. At 6-2, 250, he's not huge, but his explosion off the line is suited for today's NFL. He ran the third-fastest 40 among defensive linemen (4.59). A former junior college player, McKinley really came on as a senior, recording 10 sacks and three forced fumbles. McKinley impressed me with his motor too, even while dealing with multiple injuries. 12. **Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State Previous rank: 14 Hooker didn't take part in drills at the combineafter having surgery in January to repair a torn labrum in his left hip and repair sports hernias, but measuring in at 6-1, 206 will help him. Like his teammate Lattimore, Hooker was another third-year sophomore and first-year starter in 2016. He has incredible range and was the best center-field-type safety I saw last season. He had seven interceptions and returned three of them for touchdowns. He was all over the field for the Buckeyes. 13. Haason Reddick, OLB, Temple Previous rank: NR Reddick just keeps rising -- his stock has moved up as much as anybody in this class. I pegged him at No. 30 to the Steelers in Mock Draft 2.0, but that was before he was one of the combine MVPs, with a 4.52 40, 36.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-1 broad jump, all of which ranked in the top three among defensive linemen. Some teams might see Reddick (6-1, 237) as an inside linebacker, but I think he also could play outside in a 3-4. He'll get in the backfield -- he had 21.5 tackles for loss last season. Reddick is also fundamentally sound, which is a big plus. 14. *John Ross, WR, Washington Previous rank: NR Ross is my new No. 1 receiver, but it's not justbecause of his combine-record 4.22 40. It's partially due to the fact that the other top receivers, Clemson's Mike Williams and Western Michigan's Corey Davis, didn't run at the combine and we don't yet have true 40 numbers for them (Davis isn't having a pro day, either). And so I feel comfortable putting Ross, who was on my Big Board during the season, in the top spot. After major knee injuries cost him most of the 2014 season and all of 2015, Ross had a sensational 2016 season with 81 catches for 1,150 yards and 17 touchdowns. Ross isn't very big -- 5-11, 188 -- but he's not a guy who has to play in the slot. He can play outside at the next level. 15. *Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford Previous rank: 16 McCaffrey's 4.48 40 and 37.5-inch vertical should eliminate any doubts about his athleticism. He's going to be a really good pro. The Stanford offense was built around him for the past two years. He runs, catches passes, blocks and returns kicks and punts. With 590 carries for 3,622 yards and 82 catches for 955 yards the past two seasons, he has shown that he can carry the load. McCaffrey (5-11, 202) has incredible balance and could be an every-down back in the NFL. And it helps that he played in a pro-style offense at Stanford. His father, Ed, had a long NFL career as a wide receiver, and his brother, Max, was a good receiver at Duke. 16. *Mike Williams, WR, Clemson Previous rank: 9 Williams is expected to run at Clemson's pro day later this week, and he could jump back above Ross among receivers. A 40 in the low 4.5s is probably good enough for teams. On the field, Williams is a special receiver who measured 6-4, 218 at the combine. He made some fantastic catches in the national title game, finishing with eight receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown. Williams put behind the scary neck injury that prematurely ended his 2015 season, and he was Deshaun Watson's go-to target in 2016. He finished with 98 catches for 1,361 yards and 11 touchdowns. 17. *Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan Previous rank: 18 One of the most productive receivers in the country over his career, Davis is a big-time playmaker with skills that will translate to the next level. He had 331 catches for 5,278 yards and 52 touchdowns in his career, and he led the country in receiving touchdowns with 19 in 2016. Davis has ideal size (6-3, 209) and length to be a great NFL wideout. I think he could be a lead option for an offense. He was considered one of the hardest workers on his team, too, and he really studies the game. Like I mentioned earlier, however, we still don't know his true speed -- an ankle injury kept him out of drills at the combine. 18. *Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina Previous rank: 10 I don't see a potential top-five talent at quarterback in this draft, but that doesn't mean a QB-needy team won't be desperate and pick one in the top five. I projected Trubisky, my top-ranked QB, to go No. 2 to San Francisco in Mock Draft 1.0 and 2.0. In his first year as the full-time starter, Trubisky (6-2, 222) completed 68.2 percent of his passes and had 30 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. He throws a nice ball, has some touch and velocity and is mobile too. Experience is a question mark: He just doesn't have a lot of tape. 19. *Budda Baker, S, Washington Previous rank: NR The Huskies have been producing some stellar talent lately, and Baker could end up being the best of the bunch. If he were bigger, I think he'd be a top-15 pick, but the 5-10 frame will scare off a few teams. Baker is a great, versatile football player, though, who could play in the slot, play deep safety or help in run support in the box. He had two interceptions and three sacks last season, and he ran a 4.45 40 at the combine. Wherever he lands in the draft, I expect to see him on my Rookie Big Board throughout the 2017 season. 20. **David Njoku, TE, Miami (Fla.) Previous rank: 22 No longer a sleeper at this point, Njoku put on a show at the combine. He ran a 4.64 40, had a 37.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-1 broad jump at 6-4, 246. The third-year sophomore was fantastic down the stretch of the Hurricanes' 2016 season, with seven touchdowns over the last six games; he had just two career touchdowns before that. Njoku is among the most athletic tight ends in recent years. He could be a weapon in the NFL. 21. *Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee Previous rank: NR Barnett was stellar after a slow start to the 2016 season, with 13 sacks. That put him at 33 in his three years at Tennessee. Barnett (6-3, 259) is an all-around defender who beats double-teams, makes plays in the running game and gets after quarterbacks. I see him as a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, not a 3-4 outside linebacker, but that shouldn't hurt his value. 22. Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU Previous rank: 20 White was impressive in his limited time at the Senior Bowl -- no receiver could get separation against him. He hurt his ankle in the middle of the week and didn't practice after that or play in the game, but I feel comfortable bumping him up a round after his solid senior season and how he looked against the wideouts at the Senior Bowl. White (5-11,192) could have been a Day 3 pick a year ago but made the right decision to return to school. His six career interceptions, including two in 2016, are fewer than you'd like to see from a first-round cornerback, but his ball skills are OK. He needs to catch some of the throws he breaks up. 23. *Garett Bolles, OT, Utah Previous rank: 23 Bolles started only one season for the Utes after coming over from a junior college, but he was tremendous in 2016. Playing left tackle for the Utes, he showed that he's a great run-blocker who can drive defenders off the ball at the snap. Bolles (6-5, 297) is a mauler, but he has nice feet too. His 4.95 40 at the combine was second among offensive lineman. Bolles needs to work on his technique and improve his pass blocking, but he could be the first tackle taken in April. 24. *Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson Previous rank: NR I've had Watson at No. 10 to the Bills in both Mock Draft 1.0 and 2.0, but this is his first appearance in the Big Board since the regular season. He really had an up-and-down 2016 season, and I thought he took a step back in decision-making from his stellar sophomore season. His 17 interceptions -- and 30 over the past two seasons -- are worrisome. But then you watch him play like he did in the national title game win over Alabama -- 36-of-56 passing for 420 yards, 43 rushing yards, four total TDs -- and you see a potential top-five pick. At 6-2, 221, Watson doesn't have ideal size, but he has the arm strength, toughness and athleticism to play for a long time. He just needs to put it all together consistently. 25. Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida Previous rank: 15 Injuries to both ankles caused Davis (6-1, 238) to miss a few games late in the season, and he didn't work out at the combine. But he is a steady, reliable linebacker with a nose for the football. He could play inside or outside linebacker in the NFL, but he's not a pass-rusher, though he did have 5.5 sacks the past two seasons. Davis is an every-down linebacker at the next level -- he can cover tight ends and backs in the passing game -- and fits what teams are looking for these days. He could play all three positions in a 4-3 defense or the inside in a 3-4. I love his intangibles too; he has tremendous character. The wonky-tonkiest, nitty-grittiest, most analytically correct MVP debate of all time! play NBA MVP contenders (1:22) Facebook Twitter Facebook Messenger Pinterest Email comment 10:52 AM ET Henry AbbottTrueHoop, NBA This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's March 27 Analytics Issue. Subscribe today! This year's MVP debate has no clear-cut favorite -- the players with the gaudy stats don't have the win totals, and vice-versa. So ... who should it be? We assembled some of the world's foremost basketball minds from the analytics community to answer the question. JEREMIAS ENGELMANN: Here goes: Steph Curry should be the MVP. Since 1985, no player has won the MVP whose team didn't finish third or better in its conference. And with LeBron slowly fading -- his blocks are down, his turnovers are at a career high -- my vote goes to a player from the team that currently sports the best point differential of all time, the Warriors. It's always tough to select a single best player from a team this great. And on paper, if you combined their counting stats, Curry and Kevin Durant, before his MCL sprain, were about equal. But what gives Curry the nod, even before Durant's injury, is that we know he can reach unprecedented heights of team success without Durant. Just look at Curry's +/- per 48 minutes this season compared to the other league leaders. His on/off (+15.6) dwarfs that of Durant (+7.8). The Warriors simply play at their best when Curry is on the court and suffer significantly more when he sits. And while it's true that Curry is playing a hair worse than last season, it's unfair to compare him to standards he himself set in a season in which he was voted unanimous MVP. He would be on course to have the best 3-point shooting season of all time if it weren't for his own 2015-16 campaign. 3-point attempts vs. 3-point percentage* *Minimum 200 3-point attempts Curry is the best at what every team in today's NBA is trying to do: take and make as many 3s as possible. DEAN OLIVER: ? RAJIV MAHESWARAN: ? "Curry's best at what every team's trying to do: take and make as many 3s as possible." Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN NBA Insider, co-creator of real plus-minus DO: Would anyone throw any other player into the mix beyond Jimmy Butler, Curry, Durant, Draymond Green, James Harden, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook? BEN ALAMAR: I looked at each team's raw net efficiency without its MVP candidate(s). The chart here suggests the Thunder are a really strong D-League team when Westbrook is off the court, while the Warriors and Spurs are pretty good teams. Team efficiency without its MVP *Net points allowed/100 possessions HENRY ABBOTT: Ben, you're stirring up some debate here. I see your point about Westbrook's essential nature. But I also notice as you go further right on the chart, the teams tend to get better! If the best teams have multiple stars ... is the most valuable player one who can recruit/coexist/maintain long-term relations with other stars? And, thinking with the aid of unhealthy amounts of caffeine, if Westbrook had more of that, would he still be playing with Durant? DO: Westbrook has pushed the envelope of what any player has done; using 45 percent of his team's possessions is the highest I've ever seen. And you don't see players working that much offensively who maintain their defense as much as he does. Usually guys who shoot a ton see their D fall off a lot (see Kobe Bryant). On the opposite end from Westbrook is Kawhi. The Spurs do well without Leonard because they develop players and will give anyone starting minutes so that they know how to play together. I'd hate to give credit to Westbrook for having a system built so much for him, because that implicitly takes away from Leonard, who is the best player on a team built for everyone. I don't mean to pick on Westbrook; I respect him a ton for how hard he works. But the triple-double thing is overrated. He leads the NBA in defensive rebounds off free throws by a wide margin -- 76 compared to the guy in second, with 59. James Harden is doing a bit of the same thing; he has 49. After that, among point guards, Rajon Rondo has 18. These are the easiest rebounds to get and don't need a point guard to get them. That being said, Westbrook is still the best rebounding guard in the league without this. "If we eliminate Russ, let's not do it because his team lost Durant." Kevin Pelton, ESPN NBA Insider BA: I'll agree with Dean that Westbrook's triple-doubles aren't really important. But I would say that his likely being the first player to finish a season with an assist percentage and usage percentage over 40 percent (and he'll be over 50 percent in AST percent) on a team that we project to win 46 games is relevant -- particularly since this team would be in Nets territory without him. RM: For those of us under 6 feet, we're going to have to add Isaiah Thomas to the list, and frankly, we're going to have to let him win. JE: ? DO: I really wish I was allowed to be sarcastic right now, but Henry is watching everything we say ... RM: ? DO: Instead, I'll go with James Harden for now. A few reasons: He's had the most great games of anyone. By net points added in a game, he's had 13 games of 10+, which is close to what Steph's pace was last year. He comes out as the best offensive player in RPM (and a few methods) ... DO: He is also adding a lot through his passing. His ability to draw defenses has made Montrezl Harrell and Clint Capela into dunking machines around the rim, with both having significant increases in the number of shots at the rim they take. An extra three to four more layups at 70-plus percent per game is a lot of points ... DO: And he is a dominant scorer. His half-court efficiency is 119 points produced per 100 possessions. His half-court effective FG percentage is only 50 percent -- far lower than Steph Curry's 55 percent, which is the best of the candidates, but Harden closes the gap through drawing shooting fouls, which he does more than anyone. If you calculate a true shooting percentage [which incorporates 2- and 3-pointers and free throws], he closes the gap, 59 percent to 58 percent. For a player using 37 percent of his team's possessions, that is ridiculous ... JE: ? DO: And yes, defense is always the main criticism of Harden. It is still valid, but Mike D'Antoni has tasked Harden with getting stops more, and that's helping. Now if he gets burned, he knows he is more on an island, so he does a little better with it. I love defense -- far more than offense -- but I don't hold individual D against players as much in award voting. Defense is a lot about system, and I think the Warriors' guys, for instance, do get the benefit of being in a very good defensive system. Kawhi Leonard is a major defensive force who is also helped by system. "Harden deserves the lion's share of credit for the Rockets outperforming expectations." Sachin Gupta, Consultant and former VP of basketball operations with the 76ers HA: Well, that didn't win the sarcasm award. RM: Is it the case that a player who moves their team from a +1 to a +7 in some arbitrary measure is better than someone who moves their team from a +10 to a +12? I think the intuition is that the two points from 10 to 12 are certainly much harder than from 1 to 3 and possibly harder than from 1 to 7. I think these things unfairly push down Curry/Durant/LeBron compared to Harden/Westbrook. It's not that I'm advocating for one over the other, but pointing out that our lack of knowledge about the probably varying relative difficulty of marginals in our measures hinders our ability to converge on an answer. DO, JE: ? "LeBron is playmaking, but he isn't creating nearly as much value." Ben Alamar, Director of sports analytics at ESPN, former employee of the Thunder and Cavaliers DO: Let me go off Rajiv's comment and add a couple of things. Adding 2 ppg to a .500 team adds about seven wins. Adding 2 ppg to a 65-win team adds about four wins (based on Pythagorean math). But those four wins, going from 65 to 69, are more valuable in terms of a chance to win a championship than going from 41 to 48 wins. Deciding which is more valuable there is purely subjective. It's a choice, not an analysis. BA: I admit that I really want the answer to be Westbrook. The story is incredibly compelling. Unfortunately, I just don't think that is the right answer. I don't think the MVP has to come from the best team, but it's hard to make the case that it should come from a team that has only a 2 percent chance to make the conference finals (according to BPI), so with a heavy heart I take Westbrook off my list. So that leaves me with LeBron, Harden, Leonard or a Warrior to be named later. Given my earlier argument against Steph, I'll also remove the Warriors collectively. Oh, I forgot that Rajiv put up Thomas for consideration. Thomas is literally dead last among point guards in defensive RPM ... so I'll just leave that there ... JE: ♨ BA: Next, I'll eliminate LeBron because I think a player's own career provides some context for this discussion. While he is taking on more playmaking responsibilities, he isn't creating nearly as much value (win shares per 48 minutes) as in seasons past. SACHIN GUPTA: Rajiv, I thank you for standing up for vertically challenged people everywhere. My family and I appreciate it ... RM: ✊ "For those of us under 6 feet, we're going to have to add Isaiah to the list." Rajiv Maheswaran, CEO of Second Spectrum, a firm that applies machine learning to player-tracking data SG: But as Jeremias alluded to, you'd have to go back to 1988 to find an MVP who wasn't on a top-four team; Michael Jordan was in a class of his own that year. There isn't anyone like '88 Jordan this year, so I think it's fair to say the race should be down to players on the true championship-contending teams. Which still somehow leaves six legitimate candidates. DO: ? KEVIN PELTON: I agree with Dean that deciding how to define value is a choice, not an analysis, but let me dissent from everyone else who's spoken up on that choice. If we're going to eliminate Russ, let's do it because his impact on his team isn't considered MVP-level in metrics based on plus-minus, not because his team lost Durant and therefore can't compete at a championship level. BA: I think the MVP is the player who adds the most to a team's chances to compete for a championship. Under this definition, Westbrook is out, because the Thunder have a zero percent chance to win the championship without him and near zero with him, so from that perspective he just doesn't add much value. From the other end of the spectrum, this definition also eliminates Curry and Durant, because I don't think their odds of competing for a championship -- getting to the Finals -- change dramatically in the absence of one of them. So I return again to Leonard and Harden. DO: I think the question of making teammates better is an important one this year (if not all years). This is one of the reasons I like Harden -- he is making his bigs measurably better this year. Having metrics for how guys make their teammates better is still a challenge. Doable, but hard. JE: ? HA: I suspect when an MVP is announced -- and the counting stats end up winning the day -- most of us will think something like, "Well, that's a silly choice." DO: Well, I don't think it will be "silly" if it's Harden, Curry or Leonard. Or even Durant or LeBron. If it's Westbrook, I'll be disappointed. I wouldn't call it silly, but I'd say that people are falling for storyline over substance. And an overly simple storyline at that. If Westbrook wins, it is because people are falling for the stats that are lying. (Unless, obviously, things change in the last two months of the season.) HA: ? ? KP: While I seem to be the most open to Westbrook's candidacy here, I'm going to go with Harden for a reason we haven't discussed much yet: minutes played. Value is a product of both quality and quantity of play, and Harden -- who ranks second in the league in minutes among our candidates -- has the edge in the latter category. To head off the objection that this is unfair to the Warriors' candidates because of their blowouts, I'll note that Harden still averages more minutes (38.6) in games decided by 10 points or fewer than Durant (37.5) or Curry (35.7). Basically, given Harden's superior volume, I think you have to make the case that someone else is dramatically more effective on a per-minute basis. And I haven't seen a persuasive case for that yet. BA: ? RM: But if defense is going to be used, Durant/LeBron/Kawhi should get a big boost over the others. From the metrics I'm looking at, Durant stands out here. SG: I'm going with Harden too. I think it's fair to give slightly more credit to offense, and there's already a DPOY award to reward individual defenders. Going with even a slight 55/45 weight of offense/defense in RPM, Harden emerges as the league leader in RPM wins thus far, which also takes into account Kevin's point of the added value of playing more minutes. Additionally, I think Harden also deserves the lion's share of the credit for the Rockets largely outperforming expectations -- ESPN's Summer Forecast pegged them as a 41-win 8-seed, while many team ratings now have them looking more like a 56-win 3-seed. BA: ? JE: ? RM: After a conversation with Ben, I'm going to split my vote between Isaiah and KD. Isaiah maximizes "valuable" if you consider salary, and pre-injury KD maximized "valuable" if you consider marginal probability of winning the championship. I'm not sure of the latter, and I think cases can be made for Steph and Kawhi. JE: ? BA: Finally making a choice: Kawhi Leonard. First, on a macro level, if the criteria is, as I suggested, that the MVP is the player who adds the most to his team's ability to compete for a championship, then Leonard is the clear answer. I think we can agree that neither the Rockets nor Spurs would be competing for a title without their MVP, and right now, BPI gives the Spurs a 16 percent chance to get to the Finals and the Rockets only 5.7 percent. This macro level (and assumption-filled) analysis is supported by some additional skill-specific metrics. Harden and Leonard have similar usage rates (34 percent for Harden, 31 percent for Leonard), yet Leonard is a more efficient scorer by PER and has a higher 3PT percentage. Leonard has a higher offensive rating (122 to 119) and WS/48 (0.281 to 0.256). Then, in terms of defense, there is no comparison: Leonard leads Harden 101 to 107 in defensive rating and has a higher steal and block percentage. Harden is having a great season, but Leonard is creating more value for his team and gets my vote for MVP. "Leonard is the best player on a team built for everyone." Dean Oliver, VP of data science with TruMedia Networks, author of 'Basketball on Paper' DO: Not the easiest to read, but here is a plot of how individual net points above replacement have increased over time. You can see CP3 was with KD up until the injury and led the race into December -- and you can see who leads now. Net points above replacement HA: Looks like our final scoreboard is: three votes for Harden (Oliver, Pelton, Gupta), one each for Kawhi (Alamar) and Curry (Engelmann) and a half vote for pre-injury Durant and Thomas (Maheswaran). Which means zero votes combined for Westbrook, James, CP3 and Jimmy Butler -- which, by the way, would make one hell of a pickup team. All stats current through March 7. If not Tony Romo, then who starts at QB for Texans? play Romo alternatives scary for Texans, Broncos (1:53) Facebook Twitter Facebook Messenger Pinterest Email comment 11:12 AM ET Sarah BarshopESPN Staff Writer HOUSTON -- It has been nearly a week since the Houston Texans traded Brock Osweiler to the Cleveland Browns and they still don’t have a starting quarterback. The widely speculated option for the Texans is Tony Romo, who is still under contract with the Dallas Cowboys while being widely linked to the Texans and Denver Broncos, either by a trade or after he is released. There also have been reports that Fox is interested in Romo as an analyst if he is done playing. The Texans are more interested in Romo if he is an available free agent and reportedly do not want to trade for him. Romo, who turns 37 next month, has an extensive injury history and has played in only five games in the past two seasons. So if Romo doesn’t work out, either because he doesn’t want to play football, chooses Denver, or the price is not right for the Texans, who else is out there? The smart money has the Texans turning to Tom Savage and drafting a quarterback. But if they did need to sign a veteran, who is still available? Tom Savage: One option for the Texans is to go with the guy already on their roster. Savage played well at times in his two starts for Houston last season, but he is still an unknown commodity because he hasn’t had many opportunities to start. Savage was injured in 2014 and 2015 and didn’t have the option to win the starting job last season after the Texans signed Osweiler. Even if Houston signs Romo, given his injury history, they will need a reliable backup. That should be Savage. 2017 draft pick: With the No. 25 pick in the draft, it won’t be easy for the Texans to trade up if they see the guys they want falling off the board. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, UNC’s Mitch Trubisky and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer are widely expected to be taken fairly early on Day 1. The Texans could draft Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes if they believe he is worthy of that pick. But if they don’t get Romo, they could find it necessary to make sure they get their guy, regardless of what they have to do to trade up. Jay Cutler: Cutler has a very strong arm and would be able to take advantage of the Texans’ offensive weapons, but he might clash with head coach Bill O’Brien. Although he is the biggest name on the market after Romo, I can’t see him being the right fit in Houston. Jimmy Garoppolo: The fourth-year player is not a free agent, but because he is playing behind Tom Brady, there was speculation that he would be available in a trade. However, the Patriots' asking price is reportedly two first-round picks (2017 and 2018), which is too much for the Texans. Houston already doesn’t have a second-round pick in 2018 after including it in the trade of Osweiler. Robert Griffin III: Like Romo, Griffin spent most of last season injured, but Griffin has a lot less upside. In five games, he completed 59.2 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and three interceptions. Griffin, a former Heisman Trophy winner at Baylor, has a history of serious knee injuries and it would not make sense for Houston to sign him. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick has a history in Houston and could return. But Fitzpatrick’s days as a starter are likely over after posting a league-low 69.6 passer rating last season. Fitzpatrick already said he would not be returning to the New York Jets, but he could be a reliable backup somewhere next season. That’s probably not what Houston needs, though, unless they turn to Savage and don't draft a quarterback, so it’s tough to see him returning to the Texans. The rest of the field: Colin Kaepernick, Mark Sanchez, Aaron Murray, Chase Daniel, Josh McCown, Case Keenum, Shaun Hill, Matt McGloin, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Geno Smith, Dan Orlovsky, Josh Johnson, Christian Ponder, Thaddeus Lewis, T.J. Yates, Kellen Moore, Ryan Nassib, David Fales, Bruce Gradkowski, Austin Davis and Charlie Whitehurst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insider Kiper's 2017 Big Board: A post-combine shake-up play Foster could still be top-10 pick (0:59) Facebook Twitter Facebook Messenger Pinterest Email comment 8:07 AM ET Mel Kiper Jr.Football analyst The NFL combine is over, and we're 43 days from the 2017 draft, which means it's time for an update to my Big Board. The changes in this edition include a shake-up among the top wide receivers, the re-entry of a quarterback who had been included during the season, and the rise -- more than 10 spots -- of an SEC pass-catcher. Come back next week for Mock Draft 3.0, and check out Todd McShay's third mock here. Here we go: One asterisk denotes a junior, and two asterisks denote a redshirt sophomore for the 2016 season. 1. *Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M Previous rank: 1 Garrett ran a ridiculous 4.64 40-yard dash and had a 41-inch vertical jump and 10-foot-8 broad jump, all at 6-foot-4, 272 pounds, at the combine. He cemented his stock as my No. 1 prospect, he'll stay at No. 1 to the Browns in Mock Draft 3.0. Garrett had a frustrating 2016 season, hampered by a high ankle sprain he suffered in late September, and his 8.5 sacks were down from his freshman total of 11.5 and sophomore total of 12.5. When he's on, he's a brilliant, natural pass-rusher. 2. Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama Previous rank: 2 Allen was one of the top two or three defenders in the country the past two seasons. After having 12 sacks in 2015, he had 10.5 more in 2016, including one in Alabama's national title game loss. I wrote in October about Allen's performance against Texas A&M, in which he had a signature sack and returned a fumble for a touchdown. Defensive end, defensive tackle -- at 6-3, 286 pounds, Allen can play anywhere on the line, and in a 4-3 or 3-4 defense. Plus, coach Nick Saban loves him. 3. **Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford Previous rank: 5 A third-year sophomore, Thomas has steadily risen over the past year and now he's in the mix to be a top-five pick. He put up solid numbers at the combine and showed off the explosion that I saw on tape. Thomas plays like a veteran, causing disruptions in both the running and passing games. He had eight sacks in 2016 while playing end, but at 6-3, 273 pounds, he could move inside and play tackle. The versatility is what stands out. And he has some speed -- he ran a 4.69 40, and check out this fumble return. 4. **Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State Previous rank: 7 At the combine, Lattimore ran a 4.36 40 and had a 38.5-inch vertical and 11-foot broad jump, all three ranking in the top 10 among defensive backs. He's an athletic phenom who doesn't have a ton of experience. Lattimore (6-0, 193) was a first-year starter in 2016 who struggled with a hamstring injury during his first two years in Columbus (and it did tighten up on him at the combine). He was fantastic, standing out in a group of talented defenders and posting four interceptions, including a pick-six. He tackles well and locked down receivers he matched up against. The 2017 cornerback class could be special, and Lattimore is at the top. 5. Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama Previous rank: 3 I'm not dropping Foster too much after his bizarre ejection from the combine, and I don't see him dropping past the top 10 in the draft. He is a big-time inside linebacker who might have been Alabama's best linebacker in 2015. Yes, better than Reggie Ragland, who went in the second round to the Bills in the 2016 draft. Foster (6-0, 229) has more range, runs sideline to sideline and is a more complete player. He's a terrific blitzer too, and recorded five sacks in 2016. I expect him to follow in the footsteps of inside linebackers from Alabama who have gone in the first round, such as Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower and C.J. Mosley. 6. *Jamal Adams, S, LSU Previous rank: 4 Adams put up solid safety numbers at the combine, running a 4.56 40 with a vertical jump of 31.5 inches at 6-0, 214. He was a huge part of LSU's defensive success the past few seasons, even if it doesn't show on the stat sheet; he had one interception, one sack and one forced fumble this past season. He has great bloodlines -- his dad, George Adams, was the No. 19 overall pick in the 1985 NFL draft. He is built for today's NFL as a versatile safety who can play in the box effectively, make tackles against the run and move to the edges and track slot receivers. 7. *Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU Previous rank: 6 A 4.51 40 is a great time for a 240-pound back, but Fournette's 28.5-inch vertical turned some heads, and not in a good way. I still see plenty of explosion when I watch his games. He struggled with a gimpy ankle in 2016 and played in only seven games. Fournette has an incredible combination of speed and power that can make him look like a varsity player hanging with the JV. Mileage was a concern heading into last season, but that's not an issue now. He had a whopping 300 carries in 2015 -- for 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns -- and only 129 in 2016. 8. *Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan Previous rank: 11 Charlton's measurements -- 6-6, 277 with 34¼ arms -- really stood out at the combine, and he tested well. He plays with good leverage for his height, has active hands and takes ideal angles when rushing the passer. Charlton can play on his feet, which means he could fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. He was the best defensive player on the field in Michigan's loss to Ohio State in late November, with 2.5 sacks and nine total tackles, showing off a full arsenal of pass-rushing moves. He finished the season with 9.5 sacks despite missing two games with an ankle injury. 9. *Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State Previous rank: 8 Cook (5-10, 210) is a home run hitter who can turn small creases into massive gains. He finished the 2016 season with 100-yard rushing performances in nine of his last 10 games, including 145 rushing yards and 62 receiving yards in the Orange Bowl win over Michigan. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry -- after averaging 7.4 in 2015 -- and had 33 receptions for 488 yards. With good hands and the ability to find and pick up blitzes, he's versatile. He had a whopping 40 total touchdowns in the past two seasons. 10. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama Previous rank: 21 Howard moves up a few more spots here after standing out at Senior Bowl practices and having a great combine (he ran a 4.51 40 at 6-6, 251, among many other impressive measurements). He wasn't a prolific pass-catcher at Alabama, including only 37 catches last season, but he has all the tools scouts look for in an NFL tight end. He can stretch the deep middle of the field and become a more dynamic weapon. He could be a playmaker in the NFL. Three of his seven career touchdowns came in national title games. 11. Takkarist McKinley, DE, UCLA Previous rank: 12 Pac-12 offensive tackles had nightmares last season about McKinley, who is a dominant speed rusher. At 6-2, 250, he's not huge, but his explosion off the line is suited for today's NFL. He ran the third-fastest 40 among defensive linemen (4.59). A former junior college player, McKinley really came on as a senior, recording 10 sacks and three forced fumbles. McKinley impressed me with his motor too, even while dealing with multiple injuries. 12. **Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State Previous rank: 14 Hooker didn't take part in drills at the combineafter having surgery in January to repair a torn labrum in his left hip and repair sports hernias, but measuring in at 6-1, 206 will help him. Like his teammate Lattimore, Hooker was another third-year sophomore and first-year starter in 2016. He has incredible range and was the best center-field-type safety I saw last season. He had seven interceptions and returned three of them for touchdowns. He was all over the field for the Buckeyes. 13. Haason Reddick, OLB, Temple Previous rank: NR Reddick just keeps rising -- his stock has moved up as much as anybody in this class. I pegged him at No. 30 to the Steelers in Mock Draft 2.0, but that was before he was one of the combine MVPs, with a 4.52 40, 36.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-1 broad jump, all of which ranked in the top three among defensive linemen. Some teams might see Reddick (6-1, 237) as an inside linebacker, but I think he also could play outside in a 3-4. He'll get in the backfield -- he had 21.5 tackles for loss last season. Reddick is also fundamentally sound, which is a big plus. 14. *John Ross, WR, Washington Previous rank: NR Ross is my new No. 1 receiver, but it's not justbecause of his combine-record 4.22 40. It's partially due to the fact that the other top receivers, Clemson's Mike Williams and Western Michigan's Corey Davis, didn't run at the combine and we don't yet have true 40 numbers for them (Davis isn't having a pro day, either). And so I feel comfortable putting Ross, who was on my Big Board during the season, in the top spot. After major knee injuries cost him most of the 2014 season and all of 2015, Ross had a sensational 2016 season with 81 catches for 1,150 yards and 17 touchdowns. Ross isn't very big -- 5-11, 188 -- but he's not a guy who has to play in the slot. He can play outside at the next level. 15. *Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford Previous rank: 16 McCaffrey's 4.48 40 and 37.5-inch vertical should eliminate any doubts about his athleticism. He's going to be a really good pro. The Stanford offense was built around him for the past two years. He runs, catches passes, blocks and returns kicks and punts. With 590 carries for 3,622 yards and 82 catches for 955 yards the past two seasons, he has shown that he can carry the load. McCaffrey (5-11, 202) has incredible balance and could be an every-down back in the NFL. And it helps that he played in a pro-style offense at Stanford. His father, Ed, had a long NFL career as a wide receiver, and his brother, Max, was a good receiver at Duke. 16. *Mike Williams, WR, Clemson Previous rank: 9 Williams is expected to run at Clemson's pro day later this week, and he could jump back above Ross among receivers. A 40 in the low 4.5s is probably good enough for teams. On the field, Williams is a special receiver who measured 6-4, 218 at the combine. He made some fantastic catches in the national title game, finishing with eight receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown. Williams put behind the scary neck injury that prematurely ended his 2015 season, and he was Deshaun Watson's go-to target in 2016. He finished with 98 catches for 1,361 yards and 11 touchdowns. 17. *Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan Previous rank: 18 One of the most productive receivers in the country over his career, Davis is a big-time playmaker with skills that will translate to the next level. He had 331 catches for 5,278 yards and 52 touchdowns in his career, and he led the country in receiving touchdowns with 19 in 2016. Davis has ideal size (6-3, 209) and length to be a great NFL wideout. I think he could be a lead option for an offense. He was considered one of the hardest workers on his team, too, and he really studies the game. Like I mentioned earlier, however, we still don't know his true speed -- an ankle injury kept him out of drills at the combine. 18. *Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina Previous rank: 10 I don't see a potential top-five talent at quarterback in this draft, but that doesn't mean a QB-needy team won't be desperate and pick one in the top five. I projected Trubisky, my top-ranked QB, to go No. 2 to San Francisco in Mock Draft 1.0 and 2.0. In his first year as the full-time starter, Trubisky (6-2, 222) completed 68.2 percent of his passes and had 30 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. He throws a nice ball, has some touch and velocity and is mobile too. Experience is a question mark: He just doesn't have a lot of tape. 19. *Budda Baker, S, Washington Previous rank: NR The Huskies have been producing some stellar talent lately, and Baker could end up being the best of the bunch. If he were bigger, I think he'd be a top-15 pick, but the 5-10 frame will scare off a few teams. Baker is a great, versatile football player, though, who could play in the slot, play deep safety or help in run support in the box. He had two interceptions and three sacks last season, and he ran a 4.45 40 at the combine. Wherever he lands in the draft, I expect to see him on my Rookie Big Board throughout the 2017 season. 20. **David Njoku, TE, Miami (Fla.) Previous rank: 22 No longer a sleeper at this point, Njoku put on a show at the combine. He ran a 4.64 40, had a 37.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-1 broad jump at 6-4, 246. The third-year sophomore was fantastic down the stretch of the Hurricanes' 2016 season, with seven touchdowns over the last six games; he had just two career touchdowns before that. Njoku is among the most athletic tight ends in recent years. He could be a weapon in the NFL. 21. *Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee Previous rank: NR Barnett was stellar after a slow start to the 2016 season, with 13 sacks. That put him at 33 in his three years at Tennessee. Barnett (6-3, 259) is an all-around defender who beats double-teams, makes plays in the running game and gets after quarterbacks. I see him as a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, not a 3-4 outside linebacker, but that shouldn't hurt his value. 22. Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU Previous rank: 20 White was impressive in his limited time at the Senior Bowl -- no receiver could get separation against him. He hurt his ankle in the middle of the week and didn't practice after that or play in the game, but I feel comfortable bumping him up a round after his solid senior season and how he looked against the wideouts at the Senior Bowl. White (5-11,192) could have been a Day 3 pick a year ago but made the right decision to return to school. His six career interceptions, including two in 2016, are fewer than you'd like to see from a first-round cornerback, but his ball skills are OK. He needs to catch some of the throws he breaks up. 23. *Garett Bolles, OT, Utah Previous rank: 23 Bolles started only one season for the Utes after coming over from a junior college, but he was tremendous in 2016. Playing left tackle for the Utes, he showed that he's a great run-blocker who can drive defenders off the ball at the snap. Bolles (6-5, 297) is a mauler, but he has nice feet too. His 4.95 40 at the combine was second among offensive lineman. Bolles needs to work on his technique and improve his pass blocking, but he could be the first tackle taken in April. 24. *Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson Previous rank: NR I've had Watson at No. 10 to the Bills in both Mock Draft 1.0 and 2.0, but this is his first appearance in the Big Board since the regular season. He really had an up-and-down 2016 season, and I thought he took a step back in decision-making from his stellar sophomore season. His 17 interceptions -- and 30 over the past two seasons -- are worrisome. But then you watch him play like he did in the national title game win over Alabama -- 36-of-56 passing for 420 yards, 43 rushing yards, four total TDs -- and you see a potential top-five pick. At 6-2, 221, Watson doesn't have ideal size, but he has the arm strength, toughness and athleticism to play for a long time. He just needs to put it all together consistently. 25. Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida Previous rank: 15 Injuries to both ankles caused Davis (6-1, 238) to miss a few games late in the season, and he didn't work out at the combine. But he is a steady, reliable linebacker with a nose for the football. He could play inside or outside linebacker in the NFL, but he's not a pass-rusher, though he did have 5.5 sacks the past two seasons. Davis is an every-down linebacker at the next level -- he can cover tight ends and backs in the passing game -- and fits what teams are looking for these days. He could play all three positions in a 4-3 defense or the inside in a 3-4. I love his intangibles too; he has tremendous character.
The wonky-tonkiest, nitty-grittiest, most analytically correct MVP debate of all time! play NBA MVP contenders (1:22) Facebook Twitter Facebook Messenger Pinterest Email comment 10:52 AM ET Henry AbbottTrueHoop, NBA This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's March 27 Analytics Issue. Subscribe today! This year's MVP debate has no clear-cut favorite -- the players with the gaudy stats don't have the win totals, and vice-versa. So ... who should it be? We assembled some of the world's foremost basketball minds from the analytics community to answer the question. JEREMIAS ENGELMANN: Here goes: Steph Curry should be the MVP. Since 1985, no player has won the MVP whose team didn't finish third or better in its conference. And with LeBron slowly fading -- his blocks are down, his turnovers are at a career high -- my vote goes to a player from the team that currently sports the best point differential of all time, the Warriors. It's always tough to select a single best player from a team this great. And on paper, if you combined their counting stats, Curry and Kevin Durant, before his MCL sprain, were about equal. But what gives Curry the nod, even before Durant's injury, is that we know he can reach unprecedented heights of team success without Durant. Just look at Curry's +/- per 48 minutes this season compared to the other league leaders. His on/off (+15.6) dwarfs that of Durant (+7.8). The Warriors simply play at their best when Curry is on the court and suffer significantly more when he sits. And while it's true that Curry is playing a hair worse than last season, it's unfair to compare him to standards he himself set in a season in which he was voted unanimous MVP. He would be on course to have the best 3-point shooting season of all time if it weren't for his own 2015-16 campaign. 3-point attempts vs. 3-point percentage* *Minimum 200 3-point attempts Curry is the best at what every team in today's NBA is trying to do: take and make as many 3s as possible. DEAN OLIVER: ? RAJIV MAHESWARAN: ? "Curry's best at what every team's trying to do: take and make as many 3s as possible." Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN NBA Insider, co-creator of real plus-minus DO: Would anyone throw any other player into the mix beyond Jimmy Butler, Curry, Durant, Draymond Green, James Harden, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook? BEN ALAMAR: I looked at each team's raw net efficiency without its MVP candidate(s). The chart here suggests the Thunder are a really strong D-League team when Westbrook is off the court, while the Warriors and Spurs are pretty good teams. Team efficiency without its MVP *Net points allowed/100 possessions HENRY ABBOTT: Ben, you're stirring up some debate here. I see your point about Westbrook's essential nature. But I also notice as you go further right on the chart, the teams tend to get better! If the best teams have multiple stars ... is the most valuable player one who can recruit/coexist/maintain long-term relations with other stars? And, thinking with the aid of unhealthy amounts of caffeine, if Westbrook had more of that, would he still be playing with Durant? DO: Westbrook has pushed the envelope of what any player has done; using 45 percent of his team's possessions is the highest I've ever seen. And you don't see players working that much offensively who maintain their defense as much as he does. Usually guys who shoot a ton see their D fall off a lot (see Kobe Bryant). On the opposite end from Westbrook is Kawhi. The Spurs do well without Leonard because they develop players and will give anyone starting minutes so that they know how to play together. I'd hate to give credit to Westbrook for having a system built so much for him, because that implicitly takes away from Leonard, who is the best player on a team built for everyone. I don't mean to pick on Westbrook; I respect him a ton for how hard he works. But the triple-double thing is overrated. He leads the NBA in defensive rebounds off free throws by a wide margin -- 76 compared to the guy in second, with 59. James Harden is doing a bit of the same thing; he has 49. After that, among point guards, Rajon Rondo has 18. These are the easiest rebounds to get and don't need a point guard to get them. That being said, Westbrook is still the best rebounding guard in the league without this. "If we eliminate Russ, let's not do it because his team lost Durant." Kevin Pelton, ESPN NBA Insider BA: I'll agree with Dean that Westbrook's triple-doubles aren't really important. But I would say that his likely being the first player to finish a season with an assist percentage and usage percentage over 40 percent (and he'll be over 50 percent in AST percent) on a team that we project to win 46 games is relevant -- particularly since this team would be in Nets territory without him. RM: For those of us under 6 feet, we're going to have to add Isaiah Thomas to the list, and frankly, we're going to have to let him win. JE: ? DO: I really wish I was allowed to be sarcastic right now, but Henry is watching everything we say ... RM: ? DO: Instead, I'll go with James Harden for now. A few reasons: He's had the most great games of anyone. By net points added in a game, he's had 13 games of 10+, which is close to what Steph's pace was last year. He comes out as the best offensive player in RPM (and a few methods) ... DO: He is also adding a lot through his passing. His ability to draw defenses has made Montrezl Harrell and Clint Capela into dunking machines around the rim, with both having significant increases in the number of shots at the rim they take. An extra three to four more layups at 70-plus percent per game is a lot of points ... DO: And he is a dominant scorer. His half-court efficiency is 119 points produced per 100 possessions. His half-court effective FG percentage is only 50 percent -- far lower than Steph Curry's 55 percent, which is the best of the candidates, but Harden closes the gap through drawing shooting fouls, which he does more than anyone. If you calculate a true shooting percentage [which incorporates 2- and 3-pointers and free throws], he closes the gap, 59 percent to 58 percent. For a player using 37 percent of his team's possessions, that is ridiculous ... JE: ? DO: And yes, defense is always the main criticism of Harden. It is still valid, but Mike D'Antoni has tasked Harden with getting stops more, and that's helping. Now if he gets burned, he knows he is more on an island, so he does a little better with it. I love defense -- far more than offense -- but I don't hold individual D against players as much in award voting. Defense is a lot about system, and I think the Warriors' guys, for instance, do get the benefit of being in a very good defensive system. Kawhi Leonard is a major defensive force who is also helped by system. "Harden deserves the lion's share of credit for the Rockets outperforming expectations." Sachin Gupta, Consultant and former VP of basketball operations with the 76ers HA: Well, that didn't win the sarcasm award. RM: Is it the case that a player who moves their team from a +1 to a +7 in some arbitrary measure is better than someone who moves their team from a +10 to a +12? I think the intuition is that the two points from 10 to 12 are certainly much harder than from 1 to 3 and possibly harder than from 1 to 7. I think these things unfairly push down Curry/Durant/LeBron compared to Harden/Westbrook. It's not that I'm advocating for one over the other, but pointing out that our lack of knowledge about the probably varying relative difficulty of marginals in our measures hinders our ability to converge on an answer. DO, JE: ? "LeBron is playmaking, but he isn't creating nearly as much value." Ben Alamar, Director of sports analytics at ESPN, former employee of the Thunder and Cavaliers DO: Let me go off Rajiv's comment and add a couple of things. Adding 2 ppg to a .500 team adds about seven wins. Adding 2 ppg to a 65-win team adds about four wins (based on Pythagorean math). But those four wins, going from 65 to 69, are more valuable in terms of a chance to win a championship than going from 41 to 48 wins. Deciding which is more valuable there is purely subjective. It's a choice, not an analysis. BA: I admit that I really want the answer to be Westbrook. The story is incredibly compelling. Unfortunately, I just don't think that is the right answer. I don't think the MVP has to come from the best team, but it's hard to make the case that it should come from a team that has only a 2 percent chance to make the conference finals (according to BPI), so with a heavy heart I take Westbrook off my list. So that leaves me with LeBron, Harden, Leonard or a Warrior to be named later. Given my earlier argument against Steph, I'll also remove the Warriors collectively. Oh, I forgot that Rajiv put up Thomas for consideration. Thomas is literally dead last among point guards in defensive RPM ... so I'll just leave that there ... JE: ♨ BA: Next, I'll eliminate LeBron because I think a player's own career provides some context for this discussion. While he is taking on more playmaking responsibilities, he isn't creating nearly as much value (win shares per 48 minutes) as in seasons past. SACHIN GUPTA: Rajiv, I thank you for standing up for vertically challenged people everywhere. My family and I appreciate it ... RM: ✊ "For those of us under 6 feet, we're going to have to add Isaiah to the list." Rajiv Maheswaran, CEO of Second Spectrum, a firm that applies machine learning to player-tracking data SG: But as Jeremias alluded to, you'd have to go back to 1988 to find an MVP who wasn't on a top-four team; Michael Jordan was in a class of his own that year. There isn't anyone like '88 Jordan this year, so I think it's fair to say the race should be down to players on the true championship-contending teams. Which still somehow leaves six legitimate candidates. DO: ? KEVIN PELTON: I agree with Dean that deciding how to define value is a choice, not an analysis, but let me dissent from everyone else who's spoken up on that choice. If we're going to eliminate Russ, let's do it because his impact on his team isn't considered MVP-level in metrics based on plus-minus, not because his team lost Durant and therefore can't compete at a championship level. BA: I think the MVP is the player who adds the most to a team's chances to compete for a championship. Under this definition, Westbrook is out, because the Thunder have a zero percent chance to win the championship without him and near zero with him, so from that perspective he just doesn't add much value. From the other end of the spectrum, this definition also eliminates Curry and Durant, because I don't think their odds of competing for a championship -- getting to the Finals -- change dramatically in the absence of one of them. So I return again to Leonard and Harden. DO: I think the question of making teammates better is an important one this year (if not all years). This is one of the reasons I like Harden -- he is making his bigs measurably better this year. Having metrics for how guys make their teammates better is still a challenge. Doable, but hard. JE: ? HA: I suspect when an MVP is announced -- and the counting stats end up winning the day -- most of us will think something like, "Well, that's a silly choice." DO: Well, I don't think it will be "silly" if it's Harden, Curry or Leonard. Or even Durant or LeBron. If it's Westbrook, I'll be disappointed. I wouldn't call it silly, but I'd say that people are falling for storyline over substance. And an overly simple storyline at that. If Westbrook wins, it is because people are falling for the stats that are lying. (Unless, obviously, things change in the last two months of the season.) HA: ? ? KP: While I seem to be the most open to Westbrook's candidacy here, I'm going to go with Harden for a reason we haven't discussed much yet: minutes played. Value is a product of both quality and quantity of play, and Harden -- who ranks second in the league in minutes among our candidates -- has the edge in the latter category. To head off the objection that this is unfair to the Warriors' candidates because of their blowouts, I'll note that Harden still averages more minutes (38.6) in games decided by 10 points or fewer than Durant (37.5) or Curry (35.7). Basically, given Harden's superior volume, I think you have to make the case that someone else is dramatically more effective on a per-minute basis. And I haven't seen a persuasive case for that yet. BA: ? RM: But if defense is going to be used, Durant/LeBron/Kawhi should get a big boost over the others. From the metrics I'm looking at, Durant stands out here. SG: I'm going with Harden too. I think it's fair to give slightly more credit to offense, and there's already a DPOY award to reward individual defenders. Going with even a slight 55/45 weight of offense/defense in RPM, Harden emerges as the league leader in RPM wins thus far, which also takes into account Kevin's point of the added value of playing more minutes. Additionally, I think Harden also deserves the lion's share of the credit for the Rockets largely outperforming expectations -- ESPN's Summer Forecast pegged them as a 41-win 8-seed, while many team ratings now have them looking more like a 56-win 3-seed. BA: ? JE: ? RM: After a conversation with Ben, I'm going to split my vote between Isaiah and KD. Isaiah maximizes "valuable" if you consider salary, and pre-injury KD maximized "valuable" if you consider marginal probability of winning the championship. I'm not sure of the latter, and I think cases can be made for Steph and Kawhi. JE: ? BA: Finally making a choice: Kawhi Leonard. First, on a macro level, if the criteria is, as I suggested, that the MVP is the player who adds the most to his team's ability to compete for a championship, then Leonard is the clear answer. I think we can agree that neither the Rockets nor Spurs would be competing for a title without their MVP, and right now, BPI gives the Spurs a 16 percent chance to get to the Finals and the Rockets only 5.7 percent. This macro level (and assumption-filled) analysis is supported by some additional skill-specific metrics. Harden and Leonard have similar usage rates (34 percent for Harden, 31 percent for Leonard), yet Leonard is a more efficient scorer by PER and has a higher 3PT percentage. Leonard has a higher offensive rating (122 to 119) and WS/48 (0.281 to 0.256). Then, in terms of defense, there is no comparison: Leonard leads Harden 101 to 107 in defensive rating and has a higher steal and block percentage. Harden is having a great season, but Leonard is creating more value for his team and gets my vote for MVP. "Leonard is the best player on a team built for everyone." Dean Oliver, VP of data science with TruMedia Networks, author of 'Basketball on Paper' DO: Not the easiest to read, but here is a plot of how individual net points above replacement have increased over time. You can see CP3 was with KD up until the injury and led the race into December -- and you can see who leads now. Net points above replacement HA: Looks like our final scoreboard is: three votes for Harden (Oliver, Pelton, Gupta), one each for Kawhi (Alamar) and Curry (Engelmann) and a half vote for pre-injury Durant and Thomas (Maheswaran). Which means zero votes combined for Westbrook, James, CP3 and Jimmy Butler -- which, by the way, would make one hell of a pickup team. All stats current through March 7.
If not Tony Romo, then who starts at QB for Texans? play Romo alternatives scary for Texans, Broncos (1:53) Facebook Twitter Facebook Messenger Pinterest Email comment 11:12 AM ET Sarah BarshopESPN Staff Writer HOUSTON -- It has been nearly a week since the Houston Texans traded Brock Osweiler to the Cleveland Browns and they still don’t have a starting quarterback. The widely speculated option for the Texans is Tony Romo, who is still under contract with the Dallas Cowboys while being widely linked to the Texans and Denver Broncos, either by a trade or after he is released. There also have been reports that Fox is interested in Romo as an analyst if he is done playing. The Texans are more interested in Romo if he is an available free agent and reportedly do not want to trade for him. Romo, who turns 37 next month, has an extensive injury history and has played in only five games in the past two seasons. So if Romo doesn’t work out, either because he doesn’t want to play football, chooses Denver, or the price is not right for the Texans, who else is out there? The smart money has the Texans turning to Tom Savage and drafting a quarterback. But if they did need to sign a veteran, who is still available? Tom Savage: One option for the Texans is to go with the guy already on their roster. Savage played well at times in his two starts for Houston last season, but he is still an unknown commodity because he hasn’t had many opportunities to start. Savage was injured in 2014 and 2015 and didn’t have the option to win the starting job last season after the Texans signed Osweiler. Even if Houston signs Romo, given his injury history, they will need a reliable backup. That should be Savage. 2017 draft pick: With the No. 25 pick in the draft, it won’t be easy for the Texans to trade up if they see the guys they want falling off the board. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, UNC’s Mitch Trubisky and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer are widely expected to be taken fairly early on Day 1. The Texans could draft Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes if they believe he is worthy of that pick. But if they don’t get Romo, they could find it necessary to make sure they get their guy, regardless of what they have to do to trade up. Jay Cutler: Cutler has a very strong arm and would be able to take advantage of the Texans’ offensive weapons, but he might clash with head coach Bill O’Brien. Although he is the biggest name on the market after Romo, I can’t see him being the right fit in Houston. Jimmy Garoppolo: The fourth-year player is not a free agent, but because he is playing behind Tom Brady, there was speculation that he would be available in a trade. However, the Patriots' asking price is reportedly two first-round picks (2017 and 2018), which is too much for the Texans. Houston already doesn’t have a second-round pick in 2018 after including it in the trade of Osweiler. Robert Griffin III: Like Romo, Griffin spent most of last season injured, but Griffin has a lot less upside. In five games, he completed 59.2 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and three interceptions. Griffin, a former Heisman Trophy winner at Baylor, has a history of serious knee injuries and it would not make sense for Houston to sign him. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick has a history in Houston and could return. But Fitzpatrick’s days as a starter are likely over after posting a league-low 69.6 passer rating last season. Fitzpatrick already said he would not be returning to the New York Jets, but he could be a reliable backup somewhere next season. That’s probably not what Houston needs, though, unless they turn to Savage and don't draft a quarterback, so it’s tough to see him returning to the Texans. The rest of the field: Colin Kaepernick, Mark Sanchez, Aaron Murray, Chase Daniel, Josh McCown, Case Keenum, Shaun Hill, Matt McGloin, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Geno Smith, Dan Orlovsky, Josh Johnson, Christian Ponder, Thaddeus Lewis, T.J. Yates, Kellen Moore, Ryan Nassib, David Fales, Bruce Gradkowski, Austin Davis and Charlie Whitehurst.
Integrity28 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I want to trade back with the Saints. Take OJ Howard with the #11, and Christian McCaffrey with the #31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C Mart Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 2 hours ago, #90 said: A new version came out today. Can someone please post it? Thanks! It'll change 4 more times before the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Integrity28 said: I want to trade back with the Saints. Take OJ Howard with the #11, and Christian McCaffrey with the #31. That would be a great infusion of talent to the offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, C Mart said: It'll change 4 more times before the draft. The more it changes the more he improves his chances of being able to point back to when he was right about something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Komba Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Only thing about OJ Howard is that he's not great at any particular thing. He's solid at everything. Very athletic but he's not going to blow away safeties covering him. He's also not a devastating blocker. One positive about him however is that he's solid at everything and that does have value. Personally I think Tight End is such an intricate position that I would generally try to sign one in free agency. The Miami tight end is very athletic though.. He's excellent as a pass catcher and not a give up as a blocker. Evan Engram is another great option. Despite being only above the 230's he's a VERY good blocker and has no problem handling bigger guys. Might struggle as a complete inline blocker against the biggest guys, but everything is there with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thadude Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Taco rated at 8 and OJ Howard at 10 been saying it all along they are beasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thadude Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Komba said: Only thing about OJ Howard is that he's not great at any particular thing. He's solid at everything. Very athletic but he's not going to blow away safeties covering him. He's also not a devastating blocker. One positive about him however is that he's solid at everything and that does have value. Personally I think Tight End is such an intricate position that I would generally try to sign one in free agency. The Miami tight end is very athletic though.. He's excellent as a pass catcher and not a give up as a blocker. Evan Engram is another great option. Despite being only above the 230's he's a VERY good blocker and has no problem handling bigger guys. Might struggle as a complete inline blocker against the biggest guys, but everything is there with him. If howard wasn't playing on a loaded Alabama team and was a #1 option on another team he'd be competing for Garrett for 1 overall And he's an excellent blocker Sorry if you don't think he's great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thadude Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Btw I like Engram too but he's Enunwa we need a tight end who can block in-line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJoTownsell1 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, Komba said: Only thing about OJ Howard is that he's not great at any particular thing. He's solid at everything. Very athletic but he's not going to blow away safeties covering him. He's also not a devastating blocker. One positive about him however is that he's solid at everything and that does have value. Personally I think Tight End is such an intricate position that I would generally try to sign one in free agency. The Miami tight end is very athletic though.. He's excellent as a pass catcher and not a give up as a blocker. Evan Engram is another great option. Despite being only above the 230's he's a VERY good blocker and has no problem handling bigger guys. Might struggle as a complete inline blocker against the biggest guys, but everything is there with him. He's great at everything when it comes to being a tight end. He's a better tight end prospect as Vernon Davis and Davis went 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thadude Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said: He's great at everything when it comes to being a tight end. He's a better tight end prospect as Vernon Davis and Davis went 6th. Njoku is more like Davis. Howard is like Jimmy Graham but with blocking abilty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Komba Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said: He's great at everything when it comes to being a tight end. He's a better tight end prospect as Vernon Davis and Davis went 6th. Howard is not better than Davis was... Davis had ELITE measurables. I don't even think Vernon's times will be seen again. Howard has solid speed, nothing amazing. And his blocking is only OK. I'm just not comfortable in taking a player that high who's just solid at everything. Especially at a position that has so many details like the tight end position. I think even Belichick called the tight end position one of the toughest to play in the NFL from a mental standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thadude Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, Komba said: Howard is not better than Davis was... Davis had ELITE measurables. I don't even think Vernon's times will be seen again. Howard has solid speed, nothing amazing. And his blocking is only OK. I'm just not comfortable in taking a player that high who's just solid at everything. Especially at a position that has so many details like the tight end position. I think even Belichick called the tight end position one of the toughest to play in the NFL from a mental standpoint. Howard had the fastest 40 ever for his ht/wt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Komba Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, thadude said: Howard had the fastest 40 ever for his ht/wt Actually I do take back some critique about Howard. I hadn't realized his 3 cone and shuttle were so good and that impresses me more. I have to watch him more though because I don't remember thinking he's next level. His tape didn't hit me like Jamal Adams. Adams is a superstar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJoTownsell1 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 20 minutes ago, thadude said: Njoku is more like Davis. Howard is like Jimmy Graham but with blocking abilty Agreed. That's why I'm not a big fan of njoku in the first round. Reminds me too much of Johnny Mitchell. OJ Howard has that "special" feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said: Agreed. That's why I'm not a big fan of njoku in the first round. Reminds me too much of Johnny Mitchell. OJ Howard has that "special" feel. Johnny Mitchell with his head on straight would be huge in today's NFL. Hell, even as a nutbag he'd probably have a huge career now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Integrity28 said: I want to trade back with the Saints. Take OJ Howard with the #11, and Christian McCaffrey with the #31. The bulk of the first round talent is on defense, I get were sick of taking defenseman with 1st round picks, but this draft is really stout at D with the top 20 prospects all being close enough to elite. I love that trade idea, but give me Taco Charlton at 11, and Takarist McKinley at 32, and the Jets have their 2 starting OLB for the next 5 years, Mauldin, and the other dude can be special teams players, and hey Taco, or Takarist need a breather subs where they belong. Taco is big enough to be the set the edge OLB, and play the run game, and versatile enough to be a pin your ears back pass rusher when it calls for it, while Takarist would be the true edge rusher specialist with a non stop motor, Jets would give QB's nightmares with those 2 outside, Lee inside, and The big 3 on the dline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thadude Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 The bulk of the first round talent is on defense, I get were sick of taking defenseman with 1st round picks, but this draft is really stout at D with the top 20 prospects all being close enough to elite. I love that trade idea, but give me Taco Charlton at 11, and Takarist McKinley at 32, and the Jets have their 2 starting OLB for the next 5 years, Mauldin, and the other dude can be special teams players, and hey Taco, or Takarist need a breather subs where they belong. Taco is big enough to be the set the edge OLB, and play the run game, and versatile enough to be a pin your ears back pass rusher when it calls for it, while Takarist would be the true edge rusher specialist with a non stop motor, Jets would give QB's nightmares with those 2 outside, Lee inside, and The big 3 on the dline! Taco is going to be a good edge rusher. I think we play more 4-man fronts which will help because he's really a 4-3 DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thadude Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Agreed. That's why I'm not a big fan of njoku in the first round. Reminds me too much of Johnny Mitchell. OJ Howard has that "special" feel. I think Njoku is really a second round pick too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On March 15, 2017 at 2:33 PM, Integrity28 said: I want to trade back with the Saints. Take OJ Howard with the #11, and Christian McCaffrey with the #31. This list also makes me want to just take the best pass rusher at #6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cant wait Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 6 hours ago, slats said: This list also makes me want to just take the best pass rusher at #6. I'm not sure how to feel about thomas, at his size he seems like he could almost be a aaron donald type but his athleticism suggests he's capable of playing almost any DL or LB position. There are quite a few nice looking pass rushers in the draft so it's definitely an option early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost420 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Kiper is a hack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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