Combine throwing velocity true measure of arm strength.

[Villain The Foe]

4 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

#velocityscore.  lol

#QBArmsAreLikeCarsThatHaveTopSpeedsThatYouKnowBeforePuttingOnTheRoad. lol

 

Im realising that this is actually entertaining for you guys, which is why you're contributing your thoughts. I never knew that when I look at my Jeep and knowing the top speed of my car without having to test that on the Autobahn that it's the same as a football player and his arm. It seems like that information is already available. I guess the 3-cone, 20 yard splits, 40 yard dashes and everything else comes standard. 

 

lol. It's been a while Dom. 

[Villain The Foe]

3 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

How anyone would pick Allen over him is mind boggling 

That's what I said. However, he is short. 

[#27TheDominator]

17 minutes ago, flgreen said:

I always wonder when people who talk about getting their info from "scouts reports", where they get the NFL scouts reports.  To my knowledge teams don't allow their scouts to give reports to the general public.

Are they talking about bloggers as expert NFL scouts?  The talking heads on ESPN?

I am not sure.  I read draft profiles. I assume that and the talking heads are what most people reference. 

There have been a few real ones leaked.  The Pats report on Johnny Manziel was classic.  The Cowboys draft board was leaked in 2016.  In 2010 some reddit user found the Raiders draft book.  At least one of their scouts rated Gronkowski the best player in that draft.  They are much more interesting than the talking heads

[#27TheDominator]

9 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

#QBArmsAreLikeCarsThatHaveTopSpeedsThatYouKnowBeforePuttingOnTheRoad. lol

 

Im realising that this is actually entertaining for you guys, which is why you're contributing your thoughts. I never knew that when I look at my Jeep and knowing the top speed of my car without having to test that on the Autobahn that it's the same as a football player and his arm. It seems like that information is already available. I guess the 3-cone, 20 yard splits, 40 yard dashes and everything else comes standard. 

 

lol. It's been a while Dom. 

Maybe it is like when pitchers are in the bullpen.  Some are soft tossing, but hey THEY CAN ONLY THROW 49 MPH! None of this has anything to do with Mayfield as a prospect, but keep tooting that horn.

[Untouchable]

21 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

How anyone would pick Allen over him is mind boggling 

I’d say the complete opposite 

Why so many are willing to just totally disregard the knocks against Mayfield all in the name of “passion” is just goofy as hell to me.

Being 6’0 at QB puts you at a big disadvantage in the pros. That’s not opinion, it’s fact. Otherwise, aside from Brees, Wilson and to a much lesser extent Mike Vick, why the hell do you have to go back all the way to the days of Fran Tarkenton to find a consistently successful sub-6’2 QB in the NFL?

I’ll tell you why, because 6’2 has long been considered the cut-off for acceptable height at the QB position.

The only guy at 6’1 or smaller who has been consistently able to play from the pocket at an elite level is Drew Brees...that’s it. Out of the entire 50+ year modern era of football, there’s one.

Seattle has to constantly roll Wilson out of the pocket just to set him up with open lanes in the passing game. Why? Because being 5’11 at QB behind a bunch of 6’5 linemen is a detriment anyway you slice it.

And that’s just the stature thing, not even getting into both the on the field and off the field crap with Mayfield. There are definitely concerns there with Mayfield, not much different than Manziel. Only difference is that Mayfield is a more polished passer at this stage than Johnny. Otherwise...same size, same “passion”, same arm, same Heisman resume, same maturity issues, came from the same uber-simplistic offense, etc.

Why anyone would want to give up 3 2nd round picks for that when the QB who was essentially grown in a lab with generational arm talent and a squeaky clean off field persona is standing right next to him is what boggles my mind. Especially considering that the Jets are a northeastern team that routinely plays outdoors in sh*t conditions during the winter months.

[detectivekimble]

10 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

It's interesting that Russel Wilson threw the ball at 55 while Andy Dalton the previous year threw it at 56.  Yet Dalton is known as having a soft arm and Wilson's arm is considered average-to-good.

Some of these guys don't let it rip at the Combine because they're so concerned with accuracy.  Lamar Jackson was really taking a lot of the ball just to put the ball on the spot.

[Villain The Foe]

23 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Maybe it is like when pitchers are in the bullpen.  Some are soft tossing, but hey THEY CAN ONLY THROW 49 MPH! None of this has anything to do with Mayfield as a prospect, but keep tooting that horn.

This isnt pitching and this isnt a Lambo going slower than a Jeep. The comparison was simply a poor one for numerous reasons. 

#1. You can pretty much find out the speed/horsepower of a particular car without having to personally test it. 

#2. Just because a Jeep goes faster than a Lambo doesn't mean that the lambo top speed is slower than the jeep, it means that the Lambo simply went slower at that time. 

#3. Maybe this wasn't a competition like a race (Lambo vs Jeep) but more of what each player was simply capable of when throwing the football. 

With your position it would be on you to "prove" that a player was purposely throwing much slower than his actual ability (or trying to throw a knuckleball with a football). But of course you cant, which validates this as a terrible comparison. 

As for Mayfield being a prospect, I dont know how me saying that this is Jifs opinion and not fact or how his and your view will be accepted along with dismantling this poor comparison is suddenly a way to toot a horn. 

Im just proving the point that if you guys thought that this was pointless you guys would have moved on already. Obviously this isnt as pointless as you guys tooting the pointless horn would like to put on. You guys simply dont want others to talk about what we want to talk about which is pretty immature. 

But if it is pointless, please prove it by letting me have this last word and you finding your way to another thread worth your time and not writing another comment in this pointless thread. 

(lets watch what happens from here). Lets see how pointless this truly is....or if you're just talking #sh*t 

[SMC]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

100%.  You can see game speed vs. clocked speed.  Michel is a good example of this, he looks a lot faster on the field than he did on his 40.  Chubb ran faster if I'm not mistaken and there is no way that's the case in pads on the field.

I think the reason they dont clock their fast ball is because most of the time, you dont need your fast ball to complete a pass. I would assume, the harder you throw the more room for error...errand pass or harder to catch, etc.  What is more important is your ability to process and time the throw with accuracy.  Hence why Chadwick was able to have a long career in the NFL with the weakest arm I've ever seen.  

I guess what I'm getting at is, yes, these dudes love data but mph really doesnt tell you anything about the QB nor does it have any accuracy in predicting future success.

 

 

Completely agree with you on all this. 

One addendum is that scouts/teams do have data on arm speed that is not used at the Combine to the extent it relates to the release.  That's what the scouts/teams care most about.  The eye test can tell you if the prospect can make the outside throws to the right and left (the hardest throws to make rather than the deep ball), but the scouts can time the release of the throw because that is important to determine how quickly a prospect can act on a decision he's made.  It's a matter of seconds, not MPH.

[Villain The Foe]

24 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

I’d say the complete opposite 

Why so many are willing to just totally disregard the knocks against Mayfield all in the name of “passion” is just goofy as hell to me.

Being 6’0 at QB puts you at a big disadvantage in the pros. That’s not opinion, it’s fact. Otherwise, aside from Brees, Wilson and to a much lesser extent Mike Vick, why the hell do you have to go back all the way to the days of Fran Tarkenton to find a consistently successful sub-6’2 QB in the NFL?

I’ll tell you why, because 6’2 has long been considered the cut-off for acceptable height at the QB position.

The only guy at 6’1 or smaller who has been consistently able to play from the pocket at an elite level is Drew Brees...that’s it. Out of the entire 50+ year modern era of football, there’s one.

Seattle has to constantly roll Wilson out of the pocket just to set him up with open lanes in the passing game. Why? Because being 5’11 at QB behind a bunch of 6’5 linemen is a detriment anyway you slice it.

And that’s just the stature thing, not even getting into both the on the field and off the field crap with Mayfield. There are definitely concerns there with Mayfield, not much different than Manziel. Only difference is that Mayfield is a more polished passer at this stage than Johnny. Otherwise...same size, same “passion”, same arm, same Heisman resume, same maturity issues, came from the same uber-simplistic offense, etc.

Why anyone would want to give up 3 2nd round picks for that when the QB who was essentially grown in a lab with generational arm talent and a squeaky clean off field persona is standing right next to him is what boggles my mind. Especially considering that the Jets are a northeastern team that routinely plays outdoors in sh*t conditions during the winter months.

The only thing goofy is the same stone-aged rhetoric. 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/baker-mayfield-height-advanced-stats-metrics-analytics-profile/

Quarterback Height and Baker Mayfield’s Range of NFL Outcomes

Who should be the first quarterback taken in the 2018 NFL Draft? It’s a polarizing group including Josh Allen and his rocket arm, Baker Mayfieldwith his prolific resume, and the refined NFL “prototype” quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, among others. These are the big four that are seemingly in consideration for the top signal caller taken in the NFL Draft based on their respective advanced stats, metrics, and analytics prospect profiles.

It’s no secret by now that the Underworld supports Baker Mayfield and #NeverJoshAllen, but there is a certain infatuation with Allen among NFL scouts and analysts. The Allen supporters often knock Mayfield’s height, calling him “undersized” at 6 feet and 5/8 of an inch (compare to Josh Allenwho is 6 feet 4 and 7/8 inches). The natural question that follows is whether short quarterbacks are outperformed by their taller counterparts in the NFL.

Short Quarterback Archetype

To investigate this, we’ll ask a few key questions. For the sake of this analysis, I’m using 6-1 and under as “short” since that is where Mayfield slots in when rounded to the nearest inch. To quell any concerns of this arbitrary cutoff, the primary driver is data sample size. Since I’m using only quarterbacks drafted in the top three rounds (no more because Mayfield will have a high draft pedigree, no less because sample size). PlayerProfileralso uses data that goes bac

 

The “short” quarterbacks that meet all of the above criteria (draft pick in parentheses): Michael Vick (1.01), Johnny Manziel (1.22), Drew Brees (2.01), Russell Wilson (3.12), Colt McCoy (3.21), and Cody Kessler (3.31). Having Brees in the “short” sample is going to help, but he was only one pick away from the first round and is shorter than Mayfield. Russell Wilson, although a third round pick, is the only quarterback in this sample under 6 feet tall. That all said, we still have a small sample of “short” quarterbacks, but the results can still be helpful when used in the context of other data. Let’s answer my key questions now.

Short on Opportunity?

The process to answer this one is pretty simple: divide each quarterback’s games played by the number of games they’ve been in the league, discounting any full seasons missed due to injury (e.g., Teddy Bridgewater in 2016). I did not, however, discount Carson Palmer‘s 2003 season, for example, where he was a rookie and never took the field while he was learning behind Jon Kitna. The results are an intriguing start to this investigation.

Height	Seasons	Games Played	Game %
6-1 and Under	48	550	71.6%
6-2	85	840	61.8%
6-3 to 6-4	107	991	57.9%
6’5″ and Over	186	2143	72.0%

It’s notable that a lot of excellent quarterbacks are exactly 6-5 including Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan. The tallest group is brought down only by Charlie Whitehurst, who has somehow been in the league since 2006 and appeared in only 26 (14.8-percent) games. There are undoubtedly a lot of great, tall quarterbacks, it’s not obvious that tall quarterbacks get more opportunities. The two worst performers in the short group are Colt McCoy (35 games over 8 years) and Cody Kessler (12 games over 2 years). Both were late third round picks, so I wouldn’t call that shocking by any means.

Short on Production?

This is a question that we won’t care as much about at PlayerProfiler, so I won’t spend much time on it. To figure this one out, I simply took a crude average of each quarterback’s passing yards per game and summed all passing touchdowns divided by 16 games per season. The same goes for rushing production. I am aware of a few major holes in this method, but the sheer volume of data makes it very cumbersome to compile all the necessary data to do this properly. For example, if Drew Brees threw 250 yards per game in both 2016 and 2017, and Russell Wilson threw 200 yards per game in 2017, we take the average of 233.3 yards per game for that group.

Height	PaYds/Gm	PaTD/Season	Carries/Gm	RuYds/Gm	RuTDs/Season
6-1 and Under	187.5	16.4	3.3	16.2	1.6
6-2	183.1	12.8	3.0	11.9	1.4
6-3 to 6-4	201.1	13.8	2.8	12.2	1.5
6-5 and Over	201.9	15.5	2.5	9.0	1.1

As with opportunities or percentage of games played, there are no massive differences. The taller quarterbacks certainly have a higher passing output in terms of yardage, but the shorter quarterbacks threw more touchdowns. The shorter quarterbacks also had better rushing output, which makes sense intuitively, as it’s easier to be athletic (speed, quickness, burst) at 6-1 than at 6-6, so it’s not a big surprise that the statistics indicate that the shorter quarterbacks are more mobile. Even with Drew Brees in the short group, the rushing output looks a good percentage better than any other group. This is all fine for our purposes, because Baker Mayfield is mobile — he just scrambles with a pass-first mentality. So far, so good.

Short on Efficiency?

This is one of the reasons why PlayerProfiler exists. Efficiency metrics are much more telling of the quality of a player’s performance than counting statistics, which also depend on volume. This is also where Mayfield shined in college at the University of Oklahoma, as he was incredibly efficient in both of his last two seasons, posing over 11.0 yards per attempt and over 12.0 adjusted yards per attempt (factoring in touchdowns and interceptions). He completed over 70-percent of his passes in both seasons and thew 83 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in that span.

Notes: Play Action Pass Completion Percentage is only available for 2017, and Pressured Completion Percentage is only available for 2016 and 2017.

Height	CMP%	Red Zone CMP%	Deep Ball CMP%	Play Action CMP%	Pressured CMP%
6-1 and Under	64.6%	50.5%	44.2%	76.9%	30.7%
6-2	60.4%	54.8%	37.1%	60.3%	33.8%
6-3 to 6-4	59.1%	50.7%	32.8%	59.3%	29.5%
6-5 and Over	60.5%	52.2%	32.2%	58.3%	28.2%

When we look at completion percentages, which could be influenced by things like batted balls at the line of scrimmage, the short quarterbacks typically fare as well or better than their taller counterparts. Of the ones with the largest sample of data available (Completion %, Red Zone Completion %, and Deep Ball Completion %), the short quarterbacks stack up well.

 

The interesting note here is that the short quarterbacks drop off in the red zone, which can partially be explained away by a lack of red zone weapons for the two biggest players in the sample, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, from 2013-2017. Jimmy Graham was the only real red zone weapon for either of these quarterbacks during that stretch. With the exception of Doug Baldwin in 2015 (14 TDs), no player on either team besides Graham reached 10 receiving touchdowns in a season. Intuitively, taller quarterbacks would be more likely to have stronger arms, and thus more likely to have a good deep ball. However, the numbers favor the shorter quarterbacks in terms of deep ball accuracy, and it gets worse as quarterbacks get taller. Interestingly, short quarterbacks don’t appear to have limitations that hinder their NFL performance.

Short on Metrics?

This being PlayerProfiler.com, we have to look at the advanced metrics to see how efficient players really are. The signature metric of PlayerProfiler.com is Production Premium, which filters out non-standard situations such as the 2-minute drill and “garbage time” to measure a player’s efficiency compared to other players in the same position across the league in standard situations. Positive values indicate above-average efficiency, whereas negative values indicate below-average efficiency. True Passer Rating (available for only 2017) is the familiar Quarterback Rating with non-pressured throwaways and dropped passes factored out. Pressure Attempts Per Game and Receiver Yards After the Catch (YAC) Per Target are also available for only 2017.

Height	AY/A	Fantasy Points per Dropback	Production Premium	Total QBR	True Passer Rating	Pressure Attempts per Game	Receiver YAC per Target
6-1 and Under	5.9	0.43	6.2	62.5	89.4	6.1	3.1
6-2	5.8	0.37	-8.7	52.7	88.6	5.5	3.1
6-3 to 6-4	5.8	0.40	-7.2	48.3	86.0	5.5	2.8
6-5 and Over	5.8	0.39	-6.3	52.1	91.8	5.4	2.8

Short quarterbacks don’t seem to be at any disadvantage to their taller peers when it comes to advanced efficiency metrics. The most interesting takeaways in this set to me are Total QBR, Pressure Attempts per Game, and Production Premium. In Total QBR, which isolates a quarterback’s overall contribution to his team’s win probability by measuring efficiency and clutch factor, the short quarterbacks fare very well. This indicates that they are valuable to their teams and also do things to help their team win games, even if it doesn’t show in the passing yardage or other raw counting stats.

k through 2013, so any quarterback that retired before 2013 does not have the same data available, and they are excluded as a result.

While Pressure Attempts Per Game is available for only 2017, it is interesting that there is a noticeable gap between the shortest group and the others. The three short quarterbacks charted (Brees, Wilson, and Kessler) in 2017 also did not invite pressure, which is a positive sign that the short quarterbacks fare as well or better in most metrics while under pressure slightly more.

Even more interestingly, short quarterbacks are the only group with a positive Production Premiums. This isn’t to say that all short quarterbacks are efficient or all tall quarterbacks are not, but it may indicate that short quarterbacks are less likely to struggle at the NFL level, perhaps because NFL front offices are more sure of the short prospects when drafting them. It’s hard to draw that conclusion on a data set of this size, but it’s certainly promising and hints that short quarterbacks are probably not limited by their size at the NFL level.

Baker Mayfield on the Browns

It’s probably their best move to take him first overall, though they may also be well-served to draft the best defensive player available at 1.01 and Mayfield at 1.04 if they think they can do so. Mayfield is one of the most productive and efficient quarterback prospects in the history of the NFL . One of the biggest knocks on him around the NFL community is his height, which doesn’t seem to be a problem given historical trends and the raw data and advanced metrics on PlayerProfiler.com.

All things considered, Mayfield’s resume and the relative success of short quarterbacks in today’s NFL amount to a strong case for him to be the first quarterback taken this year, and the first overall pick. Whichever team ends up taking Mayfield in 2018 is likely to have a short but effective professional quarterback for years to come.

[Dcat]

18 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Good thread. Surprised this got buried. A 62 for Allen is sick. Just unreal. 

Probably surprising to many, Mayfield's 60 is 2nd highest this combine and would have been tops in last years combine which featured Mahomes and 2016 which had Paxton Lynch.  

Mayfield also scored great on the modernized wonderlic as well, putting up the 2nd highest score ever by a qb. 

Over 60 qb's have taken this version since 2012. I would post the article but im on my phone. 

https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/3/24/17159640/baker-mayfield-wonderlic-test-draft

I wouldnt be surprised if he's actually drafted 1st overall. 

but does he throw at 62 mph for a 10 yard out pattern or bubble screen?  

This is reminding me of Browning Nagle, who had a powerful arm but never used it correctly at the right times.  Receivers and running backs couldn't handle the velocity on those shorter throws and Nagle could never get it right..

[SMC]

42 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

How anyone would pick Allen over him is mind boggling 

Mayfield is the size of a RB at a position that has a bullseye on it.  That's why teams would pick Allen over him. 

Coaches believe they can coach up to maximize Allen's physical gifts.  Mayfield simply doesn't have that.  It's the same in baseball with pitchers.  Finesse pitchers have success in MLB, but they'll never be 1st rounders.  Why? Because teams rather would take the physical freak with a canon and teach him how to pitch.

[Villain The Foe]

3 minutes ago, Dcat said:

but does he throw at 62 mph for a 10 yard out pattern or bubble screen?  

This is reminding me of Browning Nagle, who had a powerful arm but never used it correctly at the right times.  Receivers and running backs couldn't handle the velocity on those shorter throws and Nagle could never get it right..

You know who shows a lot of screens? Josh Rosen. So far I've been able to find that 23% of Mayfield passes were screens. Im trying to find the percentage of the other QB's, and if the numbers are similar watch folks explain it away and go back to "height'.  

[Dcat]

3 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

We understand what you're saying and its cool that you feel this way. However, is it okay with you that we continue to talk about it here in this thread? I mean damn, the entire offseason folks have been drooling over Josh Allens arm and it seems that we have some data on him as well as a few other QB's. If its not "official" then cool, but every year we talk about velocity as part of the offseason conversation. 

Is it okay that we continue to talk about it here brother? You've made your point known and there are plenty of other threads regarding different topics. It's the offseason brother, loosen up man. 

the whole velocity thing soured me on Watson last year.  Boy, was I stupid for buying into that crap.  Not going to make the same mistake twice.

[Dcat]

6 minutes ago, SMC said:

Mayfield is the size of a RB at a position that has a bullseye on it.  That's why teams would pick Allen over him. 

Coaches believe they can coach up to maximize Allen's physical gifts.  Mayfield simply doesn't have that.  It's the same in baseball with pitchers.  Finesse pitchers have success in MLB, but they'll never be 1st rounders.  Why? Because teams rather would take the physical freak with a canon and teach him how to pitch.

Should we trust the Jets coaching to teach him well?  I don't.  

[Villain The Foe]

8 minutes ago, Dcat said:

the whole velocity thing soured me on Watson last year.  Boy, was I stupid for buying into that crap.  Not going to make the same mistake twice.

No measurement in shorts should sour you from what you saw on the field. That's not the fault of the test. 

Baker Mayfield ran a 4.8 40 yet the guy's game speed is much faster when scrambling. Antonio Brown ran a 4.47 40 but we all know that this guy is arguably the fastest player on the field at any given time. They're measurements Dcat, nothing for you to make a huge decision on. 

For the folks who got burnt making a decision like that on Watson and NOT wanting him, how many folks do you think could (I said could) get burnt because of Josh Allen in shorts????

It goes both ways my friend. Lamar Jackson had a 49 on his velocity, go look at any highlight film and you'll see a guy who can throw more than half the field. Now, one would probably say "Well villain if you know this then why hold a conversation on it?". My answer would be: for the same reason why we hold conversation every year on measurements. Lets not just isolate the velocity numbers as it being the only thing here that can not reflect on the field. However, on a general point...it does show what these guys can do. 

Never disregard a player that you seen on the field simply because of a bad score. This is how guys like Watson and Joe Haden (bad 40 time) get slept on. 

[jetsons]

4 hours ago, Thai Jet said:

BUT he's NOT 6' 4".

That's why to some he's not the consensus overall... I would Still draft him Ahead of the others.

[Untouchable]

18 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

The only thing goofy is the same stone-aged rhetoric. 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/baker-mayfield-height-advanced-stats-metrics-analytics-profile/

Quarterback Height and Baker Mayfield’s Range of NFL Outcomes

Who should be the first quarterback taken in the 2018 NFL Draft? It’s a polarizing group including Josh Allen and his rocket arm, Baker Mayfieldwith his prolific resume, and the refined NFL “prototype” quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, among others. These are the big four that are seemingly in consideration for the top signal caller taken in the NFL Draft based on their respective advanced stats, metrics, and analytics prospect profiles.

It’s no secret by now that the Underworld supports Baker Mayfield and #NeverJoshAllen, but there is a certain infatuation with Allen among NFL scouts and analysts. The Allen supporters often knock Mayfield’s height, calling him “undersized” at 6 feet and 5/8 of an inch (compare to Josh Allenwho is 6 feet 4 and 7/8 inches). The natural question that follows is whether short quarterbacks are outperformed by their taller counterparts in the NFL.

Short Quarterback Archetype

To investigate this, we’ll ask a few key questions. For the sake of this analysis, I’m using 6-1 and under as “short” since that is where Mayfield slots in when rounded to the nearest inch. To quell any concerns of this arbitrary cutoff, the primary driver is data sample size. Since I’m using only quarterbacks drafted in the top three rounds (no more because Mayfield will have a high draft pedigree, no less because sample size). PlayerProfileralso uses data that goes bac

 

The “short” quarterbacks that meet all of the above criteria (draft pick in parentheses): Michael Vick (1.01), Johnny Manziel (1.22), Drew Brees (2.01), Russell Wilson (3.12), Colt McCoy (3.21), and Cody Kessler (3.31). Having Brees in the “short” sample is going to help, but he was only one pick away from the first round and is shorter than Mayfield. Russell Wilson, although a third round pick, is the only quarterback in this sample under 6 feet tall. That all said, we still have a small sample of “short” quarterbacks, but the results can still be helpful when used in the context of other data. Let’s answer my key questions now.

Short on Opportunity?

The process to answer this one is pretty simple: divide each quarterback’s games played by the number of games they’ve been in the league, discounting any full seasons missed due to injury (e.g., Teddy Bridgewater in 2016). I did not, however, discount Carson Palmer‘s 2003 season, for example, where he was a rookie and never took the field while he was learning behind Jon Kitna. The results are an intriguing start to this investigation.

Height	Seasons	Games Played	Game %
6-1 and Under	48	550	71.6%
6-2	85	840	61.8%
6-3 to 6-4	107	991	57.9%
6’5″ and Over	186	2143	72.0%

It’s notable that a lot of excellent quarterbacks are exactly 6-5 including Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan. The tallest group is brought down only by Charlie Whitehurst, who has somehow been in the league since 2006 and appeared in only 26 (14.8-percent) games. There are undoubtedly a lot of great, tall quarterbacks, it’s not obvious that tall quarterbacks get more opportunities. The two worst performers in the short group are Colt McCoy (35 games over 8 years) and Cody Kessler (12 games over 2 years). Both were late third round picks, so I wouldn’t call that shocking by any means.

Short on Production?

This is a question that we won’t care as much about at PlayerProfiler, so I won’t spend much time on it. To figure this one out, I simply took a crude average of each quarterback’s passing yards per game and summed all passing touchdowns divided by 16 games per season. The same goes for rushing production. I am aware of a few major holes in this method, but the sheer volume of data makes it very cumbersome to compile all the necessary data to do this properly. For example, if Drew Brees threw 250 yards per game in both 2016 and 2017, and Russell Wilson threw 200 yards per game in 2017, we take the average of 233.3 yards per game for that group.

Height	PaYds/Gm	PaTD/Season	Carries/Gm	RuYds/Gm	RuTDs/Season
6-1 and Under	187.5	16.4	3.3	16.2	1.6
6-2	183.1	12.8	3.0	11.9	1.4
6-3 to 6-4	201.1	13.8	2.8	12.2	1.5
6-5 and Over	201.9	15.5	2.5	9.0	1.1

As with opportunities or percentage of games played, there are no massive differences. The taller quarterbacks certainly have a higher passing output in terms of yardage, but the shorter quarterbacks threw more touchdowns. The shorter quarterbacks also had better rushing output, which makes sense intuitively, as it’s easier to be athletic (speed, quickness, burst) at 6-1 than at 6-6, so it’s not a big surprise that the statistics indicate that the shorter quarterbacks are more mobile. Even with Drew Brees in the short group, the rushing output looks a good percentage better than any other group. This is all fine for our purposes, because Baker Mayfield is mobile — he just scrambles with a pass-first mentality. So far, so good.

Short on Efficiency?

This is one of the reasons why PlayerProfiler exists. Efficiency metrics are much more telling of the quality of a player’s performance than counting statistics, which also depend on volume. This is also where Mayfield shined in college at the University of Oklahoma, as he was incredibly efficient in both of his last two seasons, posing over 11.0 yards per attempt and over 12.0 adjusted yards per attempt (factoring in touchdowns and interceptions). He completed over 70-percent of his passes in both seasons and thew 83 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in that span.

Notes: Play Action Pass Completion Percentage is only available for 2017, and Pressured Completion Percentage is only available for 2016 and 2017.

Height	CMP%	Red Zone CMP%	Deep Ball CMP%	Play Action CMP%	Pressured CMP%
6-1 and Under	64.6%	50.5%	44.2%	76.9%	30.7%
6-2	60.4%	54.8%	37.1%	60.3%	33.8%
6-3 to 6-4	59.1%	50.7%	32.8%	59.3%	29.5%
6-5 and Over	60.5%	52.2%	32.2%	58.3%	28.2%

When we look at completion percentages, which could be influenced by things like batted balls at the line of scrimmage, the short quarterbacks typically fare as well or better than their taller counterparts. Of the ones with the largest sample of data available (Completion %, Red Zone Completion %, and Deep Ball Completion %), the short quarterbacks stack up well.

 

The interesting note here is that the short quarterbacks drop off in the red zone, which can partially be explained away by a lack of red zone weapons for the two biggest players in the sample, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, from 2013-2017. Jimmy Graham was the only real red zone weapon for either of these quarterbacks during that stretch. With the exception of Doug Baldwin in 2015 (14 TDs), no player on either team besides Graham reached 10 receiving touchdowns in a season. Intuitively, taller quarterbacks would be more likely to have stronger arms, and thus more likely to have a good deep ball. However, the numbers favor the shorter quarterbacks in terms of deep ball accuracy, and it gets worse as quarterbacks get taller. Interestingly, short quarterbacks don’t appear to have limitations that hinder their NFL performance.

Short on Metrics?

This being PlayerProfiler.com, we have to look at the advanced metrics to see how efficient players really are. The signature metric of PlayerProfiler.com is Production Premium, which filters out non-standard situations such as the 2-minute drill and “garbage time” to measure a player’s efficiency compared to other players in the same position across the league in standard situations. Positive values indicate above-average efficiency, whereas negative values indicate below-average efficiency. True Passer Rating (available for only 2017) is the familiar Quarterback Rating with non-pressured throwaways and dropped passes factored out. Pressure Attempts Per Game and Receiver Yards After the Catch (YAC) Per Target are also available for only 2017.

Height	AY/A	Fantasy Points per Dropback	Production Premium	Total QBR	True Passer Rating	Pressure Attempts per Game	Receiver YAC per Target
6-1 and Under	5.9	0.43	6.2	62.5	89.4	6.1	3.1
6-2	5.8	0.37	-8.7	52.7	88.6	5.5	3.1
6-3 to 6-4	5.8	0.40	-7.2	48.3	86.0	5.5	2.8
6-5 and Over	5.8	0.39	-6.3	52.1	91.8	5.4	2.8

Short quarterbacks don’t seem to be at any disadvantage to their taller peers when it comes to advanced efficiency metrics. The most interesting takeaways in this set to me are Total QBR, Pressure Attempts per Game, and Production Premium. In Total QBR, which isolates a quarterback’s overall contribution to his team’s win probability by measuring efficiency and clutch factor, the short quarterbacks fare very well. This indicates that they are valuable to their teams and also do things to help their team win games, even if it doesn’t show in the passing yardage or other raw counting stats.

k through 2013, so any quarterback that retired before 2013 does not have the same data available, and they are excluded as a result.

While Pressure Attempts Per Game is available for only 2017, it is interesting that there is a noticeable gap between the shortest group and the others. The three short quarterbacks charted (Brees, Wilson, and Kessler) in 2017 also did not invite pressure, which is a positive sign that the short quarterbacks fare as well or better in most metrics while under pressure slightly more.

Even more interestingly, short quarterbacks are the only group with a positive Production Premiums. This isn’t to say that all short quarterbacks are efficient or all tall quarterbacks are not, but it may indicate that short quarterbacks are less likely to struggle at the NFL level, perhaps because NFL front offices are more sure of the short prospects when drafting them. It’s hard to draw that conclusion on a data set of this size, but it’s certainly promising and hints that short quarterbacks are probably not limited by their size at the NFL level.

Baker Mayfield on the Browns

It’s probably their best move to take him first overall, though they may also be well-served to draft the best defensive player available at 1.01 and Mayfield at 1.04 if they think they can do so. Mayfield is one of the most productive and efficient quarterback prospects in the history of the NFL . One of the biggest knocks on him around the NFL community is his height, which doesn’t seem to be a problem given historical trends and the raw data and advanced metrics on PlayerProfiler.com.

All things considered, Mayfield’s resume and the relative success of short quarterbacks in today’s NFL amount to a strong case for him to be the first quarterback taken this year, and the first overall pick. Whichever team ends up taking Mayfield in 2018 is likely to have a short but effective professional quarterback for years to come.

I don’t need a bunch of analytical data to tell me whether or not the odds are stacked against a sub-6’2 QB being successful at the pro level.

They are, period.

You don’t draft a 6’0 QB in the Top 5 of the draft simply because of a rare exception such as Brees, just like you don’t draft a 5’8 WR in the Top 5 of the draft just because of a rare exception like Steve Smith.

And as far as the maturity concerns go, QB is the absolute LAST position where you want those questions. You can deal with it from an ultra-talented passrusher or a diva 1500 yard receiver, but you sure as hell don’t want that with the face and unmitigated leader of your entire franchise.

Not too many other potential Top 3 picks at QB have video evidence of them trying to drunkenly run from the cops or footage of them grabbing their dick and talking trash to the opposing sideline. Let’s not treat these incidents as if they amount to nothing.

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, Untouchable said:

I don’t need a bunch of analytical data to tell me whether or not the odds are stacked against a sub-6’2 QB being successful at the pro level.

They are, period.

I know, I know...

[SMC]

22 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Should we trust the Jets coaching to teach him well?  I don't.  

That's a completely different question.  I have no faith in the Jets coaching staff.  The point is, generally speaking, the coaching staff has faith in itself to coach as do other staffs.  That's why they take the more physically gifted player.

[FidelioJet]

18 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Should we trust the Jets coaching to teach him well?  I don't.  

Then why bother at all? If the Jets can't coach then why even draft anyone.

I am sorry, I don't mean to call you out - it's just this narrative that the Jets coaching is so poor that it couldn't possibly develop a franchise QB is just silly.  They have profesional NFL - lifetime coaches on their staff - guys that know the position and know how to develop it...

We heard it with Sanchez until he was terrible on other teams, we heard it with Geno until he was terrible on other teams.  We've drafted QB's poorly.  Mac missed on Petty and Hack - they could have gone anywhere and would have been awful.  

I have total faith that if we draft the right guy we'll develop him the right way.

[#27TheDominator]

41 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

This isnt pitching and this isnt a Lambo going slower than a Jeep. The comparison was simply a poor one for numerous reasons. 

#1. You can pretty much find out the speed/horsepower of a particular car without having to personally test it. 

#2. Just because a Jeep goes faster than a Lambo doesn't mean that the lambo top speed is slower than the jeep, it means that the Lambo simply went slower at that time. 

#3. Maybe this wasn't a competition like a race (Lambo vs Jeep) but more of what each player was simply capable of when throwing the football. 

With your position it would be on you to "prove" that a player was purposely throwing much slower than his actual ability (or trying to throw a knuckleball with a football). But of course you cant, which validates this as a terrible comparison. 

As for Mayfield being a prospect, I dont know how me saying that this is Jifs opinion and not fact or how his and your view will be accepted along with dismantling this poor comparison is suddenly a way to toot a horn. 

Im just proving the point that if you guys thought that this was pointless you guys would have moved on already. Obviously this isnt as pointless as you guys tooting the pointless horn would like to put on. You guys simply dont want others to talk about what we want to talk about which is pretty immature. 

But if it is pointless, please prove it by letting me have this last word and you finding your way to another thread worth your time and not writing another comment in this pointless thread. 

(lets watch what happens from here). Lets see how pointless this truly is....or if you're just talking #sh*t 

I am talking sh*t?  That's a good one.

NONE OF THIS HAS THE SLIGHTEST THING TO DO WITH MAYFIELD AS A PROSPECT.  In fact, I continually post on here about a scout last offseason who said that Mayfield has a very strong arm that would make them forget about Darnold and Rosen.  Unfortunately, I have not been able to find the link.

This is about a "test" an "event" and a "velocity score" which is none of those things. It is, at best, a point for conversation.

You believe in it?  That's all I need to know, but Baker Mayfield being a success or failure in the NFL will neither prove it's validity or stupidity.

Oh, and I will post wherever the **** I like.

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

I am talking sh*t?  That's a good one.

NONE OF THIS HAS THE SLIGHTEST THING TO DO WITH MAYFIELD AS A PROSPECT.  In fact, I continually post on here about a scout last offseason who said that Mayfield has a very strong arm that would make them forget about Darnold and Rosen.  Unfortunately, I have not been able to find the link.

This is about a "test" an "event" and a "velocity score" which is none of those things. It is, at best, a point for conversation.

You believe in it?  That's all I need to know, but Baker Mayfield being a success or failure in the NFL will neither prove it's validity or stupidity.

Oh, and I will post wherever the **** I like.

Thanks for proving my point tho.

[JoJoTownsell1]

 

Just now, Untouchable said:

I don’t need a bunch of analytical data to tell me whether or not the odds are stacked against a sub-6’2 QB being successful at the pro level.

They are, period.

You don’t draft a 6’0 QB in the Top 5 of the draft simply because of a rare exception such as Brees, just like you don’t draft a 5’8 WR in the Top 5 of the draft just because of a rare exception like Steve Smith.

And as far as the maturity concerns go, QB is the absolute LAST position where you want those questions. You can deal with it from an ultra-talented passrusher or a diva 1500 yard receiver, but you sure as hell don’t want that with the face and unmitigated leader of your entire franchise.

Not too many other potential Top 3 picks at QB have video evidence of them trying to drunkenly run from the cops or footage of them grabbing their dick and talking trash to the opposing sideline. Let’s not treat these incidents as if they amount to nothing.

Mayfield is a special player. He could very easily become a pro bowl caliber QB. But you are right, most teams are going to have him way down their draft board because of his height/off the field/Maturity concerns. Which is why  you are correct that it is unlikely the Jets moved up to 3 to get Mayfield. Odds are the Jets/browns/Broncos/Giants/Bills/Cards top 3 ranked QBs will be Allen/Darnold/Rosen. 

There is a fine line between moxie and trouble. I tend to think Mayfield is all moxie and will not be Manziel part 2, but when you are a NFL GM, the last thing you want on your resume is that you traded up for a kid that turned out to be too short and was suspended for getting arrested. 

I won't be upset if we get him, but I just don't see it as an option. It's why I think the Jets moved up to 3 and not 4. I am sure the Browns were more than willing to move down from 4 to 6. 

[#27TheDominator]

PS: It's an analogy, not a comparison.  If you can't follow it, that's not on me.  Your "Point #2" is exactly what I am saying and it is LITERALLY THE ONLY THING THE OURLADS sh*t TELLS YOU.

 

[Villain The Foe]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

PS: It's an analogy, not a comparison.  If you can't follow it, that's not on me.  Your "Point #2" is exactly what I am saying and it is LITERALLY THE ONLY THING THE OURLADS sh*t TELLS YOU.

 

Hey, relax brother. This is a pointless thread. However, it is captivating though you must admit. 

I kinda miss this between us!  It's been a while. 

 

How you been though. I feel like we haven't spoken in some time. Hope you and the fam are well. Too bad we never got up for a Knicks game. 

[#27TheDominator]

52 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

 

#2. Just because a Jeep goes faster than a Lambo doesn't mean that the lambo top speed is slower than the jeep, it means that the Lambo simply went slower at that time. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Thanks for proving my point tho.

 

[#27TheDominator]

Just now, Villain The Foe said:

 

How you been though. I feel like we haven't spoken in some time. Hope you and the fam are well. Too bad we never got up for a Knicks game. 

Pretty good.  My son is 3 months, so lack of sleep and a tortured wife.  The usual  You still in Germany?  Hope you and yours are doing well.   

[Dcat]

7 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Then why bother at all? If the Jets can't coach then why even draft anyone.

I am sorry, I don't mean to call you out - it's just this narrative that the Jets coaching is so poor that it couldn't possibly develop a franchise QB is just silly.  They have profesional NFL - lifetime coaches on their staff - guys that know the position and know how to develop it...

We heard it with Sanchez until he was terrible on other teams, we heard it with Geno until he was terrible on other teams.  We've drafted QB's poorly.  Mac missed on Petty and Hack - they could have gone anywhere and would have been awful.  

I have total faith that if we draft the right guy we'll develop him the right way.

I admire your confidence! Seriously, I do.  Can you share some of it with me?  I need some.

[Dcat]

27 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

No measurement in shorts should sour you from what you saw on the field. That's not the fault of the test. 

Baker Mayfield ran a 4.8 40 yet the guy's game speed is much faster when scrambling. Antonio Brown ran a 4.47 40 but we all know that this guy is arguably the fastest player on the field at any given time. They're measurements Dcat, nothing for you to make a huge decision on. 

For the folks who got burnt making a decision like that on Watson and NOT wanting him, how many folks do you think could (I said could) get burnt because of Josh Allen in shorts????

It goes both ways my friend. Lamar Jackson had a 49 on his velocity, go look at any highlight film and you'll see a guy who can throw more than half the field. Now, one would probably say "Well villain if you know this then why hold a conversation on it?". My answer would be: for the same reason why we hold conversation every year on measurements. Lets not just isolate the velocity numbers as it being the only thing here that can not reflect on the field. However, on a general point...it does show what these guys can do. 

Never disregard a player that you seen on the field simply because of a bad score. This is how guys like Watson and Joe Haden (bad 40 time) get slept on. 

I have no problem with Allen in shorts. My problem is the tape of some of the games from his play last fall.  Oy Vey.  so bad. That's why I'm leery of him.

I will never let a low velocity from a radar gun sway me again.  Nor will I let myself be enamored with a high velocity.  I'm sure that if they measured velocity back in the 90's, that Browning Nagle had one of the highest.  Sadly, he used that on short out patterns and was out of the league relatively quickly.   

[Villain The Foe]

4 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

 

Mayfield is a special player. He could very easily become a pro bowl caliber QB. But you are right, most teams are going to have him way down their draft board because of his height/off the field/Maturity concerns. Which is why  you are correct that it is unlikely the Jets moved up to 3 to get Mayfield. Odds are the Jets/browns/Broncos/Giants/Bills/Cards top 3 ranked QBs will be Allen/Darnold/Rosen. 

There is a fine line between moxie and trouble. I tend to think Mayfield is all moxie and will not be Manziel part 2, but when you are a NFL GM, the last thing you want on your resume is that you traded up for a kid that turned out to be too short and was suspended for getting arrested. 

I won't be upset if we get him, but I just don't see it as an option. It's why I think the Jets moved up to 3 and not 4. I am sure the Browns were more than willing to move down from 4 to 6. 

The problem with this is this...

The Jets had to move down for Mayfield because the possibility of Mayfield being there is possible. If the Jets truly wanted a player, A SPECIFIC player, then going to #1 would have guaranteed it. 

We all know that the Jets are going QB. However, if Darnold and Rosen go 1 and 2 do folks honestly believe that the Jets are not strongly considering Mayfield at #3. Are we that dilute in our thinking that we think that the Jets are simply thinking Allen 100% of the way? 

When it comes to the stigma that comes with short QB's that's undeniable, but has the stigma been proven false? Many times. Some folks will go back to history and say "Look at the amount of QB's that are at this height or shorter", well there were a ton of QB's that could have done something but that was taken away from them given their height. They were either not played or were told to switch their position and they did so. That same situation most like happened the other way as well as coaches seen a tall strong football player and instantly thought "QB". The kid could have been a Tight End but nope, he's 6'4 and the most athletic player so we're going to put him at QB because his arm is good enough and pass rushers either cant catch him or aren't strong enough to bring him down. 

It happens all the time. The stigma of short QB's isnt the argument. In all honesty this isnt even an argument, Mayfield is proving that he's more than the stigma would suggest. 

[Villain The Foe]

9 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Pretty good.  My son is 3 months, so lack of sleep and a tortured wife.  The usual  You still in Germany?  Hope you and yours are doing well.   

Germany has great I have to admit. My wife is pregnant as well. She's due in July with our first. Pretty excited about that. We just moved into our new flat about 3 weeks ago and im fighting the urge to put anything NY Jets in my little one's room as im putting everything together in there. 

I've been hearing the stories about the first year with a newborn and the lack of sleep you'll receive. Im just trying to enjoy my last couple months of freedom before then.

[Villain The Foe]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

I have no problem with Allen in shorts. My problem is the tape of some of the games from his play last fall.  Oy Vey.  so bad. That's why I'm leery of him.

I will never let a low velocity from a radar gun sway me again.  Nor will I let myself be enamored with a high velocity.  I'm sure that if they measured velocity back in the 90's, that Browning Nagle had one of the highest.  Sadly, he used that on short out patterns and was out of the league relatively quickly.   

Im not saying that you have a problem with Allen. I guess I should have clarified. What im saying is "How many folks will get burnt by how awesome Allen looks in shorts and throwing 80 yard bombs at pro day's etc.". We see it right now Dcat, folks are disregarding his numbers in college and are basing their position on potential and upside. Then we turn on the combine and pro day and we're all blown away by his arm talent. 

Let me not act like I wasn't blown away. I thought his Pro day and combine were superb, but did it change my mind of what I seen from his games on video? No. When I see a guy that needs every excuse in the book in order for him to be a great pick (Allen) I tend to stay away. When I see a guy that has every person trying to discredit what he did on the field based on frivolous things such as height (Mayfield) I tend to gravitate to that. 

 

Lets keep in mind that this is all pre-hindsight. If Mayfield ends up being a HOF'er that doesn't mean that I need to come and rave about how I was correct. It simply meant that what he did on the field was legit. If Allen ends up being a HOF'er that doesn't mean that folks should act like "Potential and upside" is a great excuse to ignore performance on the field. IT's not. 

This is what I mean in comparison to Watson. Dont let a velocity test sway you from what you saw with your own eyes on the field. At the end of the day it's about the football player. 

[Dcat]

1 minute ago, Villain The Foe said:

Im not saying that you have a problem with Allen. I guess I should have clarified. What im saying is "How many folks will get burnt by how awesome Allen looks in shorts and throwing 80 yard bombs at pro day's etc.". We see it right now Dcat, folks are disregarding his numbers in college and are basing their position on potential and upside. Then we turn on the combine and pro day and we're all blown away by his arm talent. 

Let me not act like I wasn't blown away. I thought his Pro day and combine were superb, but did it change my mind of what I seen from his games on video? No. When I see a guy that needs every excuse in the book in order for him to be a great pick (Allen) I tend to stay away. When I see a guy that has every person trying to discredit what he did on the field based on frivolous things such as height (Mayfield) I tend to gravitate to that. 

 

Lets keep in mind that this is all pre-hindsight. If Mayfield ends up being a HOF'er that doesn't mean that I need to come and rave about how I was correct. It simply meant that what he did on the field was legit. If Allen ends up being a HOF'er that doesn't mean that folks should act like "Potential and upside" is a great excuse to ignore performance on the field. IT's not. 

This is what I mean in comparison to Watson. Dont let a velocity test sway you from what you saw with your own eyes on the field. At the end of the day it's about the football player. 

^This.  A million times ^this.

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, Villain The Foe said:

Germany has great I have to admit. My wife is pregnant as well. She's due in July with our first. Pretty excited about that. We just moved into our new flat about 3 weeks ago and im fighting the urge to put anything NY Jets in my little one's room as im putting everything together in there. 

I've been hearing the stories about the first year with a newborn and the lack of sleep you'll receive. Im just trying to enjoy my last couple months of freedom before then.

Congrats, brother.  Big job, but everybody wants to help.  My little dude is super cool, but I am sure everybody thinks that.  You won't sleep and when you do, you will feel like you are slacking.  Enjoy!

[Villain The Foe]

10 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Congrats, brother.  Big job, but everybody wants to help.  My little dude is super cool, but I am sure everybody thinks that.  You won't sleep and when you do, you will feel like you are slacking.  Enjoy!

Congrats to you and yours as well man. That's a beautiful thing.