Miss Lonelyhearts Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, CTM said: 80 was saying they adjust for strength of teammates. I know they do that in Qbase but I don't think they do anything like that in DVOA and was too lazy to look. Maybe you know off top of head? Not like in Qbase where it's anything but regression-derived, no. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyes Of Adam Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 3 hours ago, CTM said: I said it in my first post. If your goal here is to point out that it's not perfect, I already conceded that. Just because it's not perfect doesn't mean it's not worthwhile. It's better than what we had specifically because it adjusts for opponent and has a more appropriate definition of success as well as context. It's also better than the "eye test" and is probably the best measurement we have today. So I don't really want to argue semantics, I also agree its worthwhile and has value. Most statistics have value, the key to any stat or metric is to understand it and use it properly. I think calling out a DVOA or a DYAR as a metric to state whether a QB is good, or will be good, or to compare QB's is not the right way to use it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyes Of Adam Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Matt39 said: Any of the QB's who are ahead of Darnold in DVOA/DYAR not passing the eye test? His ranking to date is pretty in line with his performance while weighted against the other 31 QB's. He's had 3 meltdown games essentially (one huge meltdown) which he's now making up for against soft opponents. The guys ahead of Darnold have been better quarterbacks. Jets fans seem to have a tendency to not watch other teams it seems. Its funny you say this. Dak is put out there as an MVP candidate, and has a far superior DVOA/DYAR. Dak has had an incredibly soft schedule, and is playing with a world class line, a true top flight RB and fantastic receiving threats. Dak damn well better be a better QB than Darnold under those circumstances. The reality is we have no idea what Dak or Sam would do if the roles were reversed, but its extremely lazy analysis to just ignore the vast difference in the two scenarios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 52 minutes ago, Eyes Of Adam said: So I don't really want to argue semantics, I also agree its worthwhile and has value. Most statistics have value, the key to any stat or metric is to understand it and use it properly. I think calling out a DVOA or a DYAR as a metric to state whether a QB is good, or will be good, or to compare QB's is not the right way to use it. Why cause it says Sam stinks and you dont like that? Theres value in the metric. How the QB is performing in a sophisticated and apples to apples fact base manner is a solid foundation of which to start your analysis. Of course you then have to balance other factors like strength of teammates vs the understanding that the QB is normally the single biggest factor in overall unit performance. Theres certainly some predictive creative leeway there, but it's not as large as you might think unless of course it's extremely bad or extremely good. I can buy the state of the Jets line a few weeks back was so bad that it significantly inhibited Darnold. I think the changes they have made recently have made them competent enough that they are no longer a legitimate excuse. Even if / when Baltimore eats them alive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyes Of Adam Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, CTM said: Why cause it says Sam stinks and you dont like that? Theres value in the metric. How the QB is performing in a sophisticated and apples to apples fact base manner is a solid foundation of which to start your analysis. Of course you then have to balance other factors like strength of teammates vs the understanding that the QB is normally the single biggest factor in overall unit performance. Theres certainly some predictive creative leeway there, but it's not as large as you might think unless of course it's extremely bad or extremely good. I can buy the state of the Jets line a few weeks back was so bad that it significantly inhibited Darnold. I think the changes they have made recently have made them competent enough that they are no longer a legitimate excuse. Even if / when Baltimore eats them alive If I believed the metric had the ability to isolate the appropriate variables, I would take what it said about Sam as a means to analyze him, I don't, which is kind of the point of this thread.... Stats and metrics can be cherry picked to suit peoples points, that is bad math and bad analysis. I'm generally not a fan of that, and try to find math and stats I believe in based on, the math I believe in...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Eyes Of Adam said: If I believed the metric had the ability to isolate the appropriate variables, I would take what it said about Sam as a means to analyze him, I don't, which is kind of the point of this thread.... Stats and metrics can be cherry picked to suit peoples points, that is bad math and bad analysis. I'm generally not a fan of that, and try to find math and stats I believe in based on, the math I believe in...... The math you believe in eh? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, CTM said: The math you believe in eh? Like this was ever gonna go any different than the hundred other times some goofball looked at the FAQ and misread 'take with a grain of salt' as 'throw out the window.' 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, Miss Lonelyhearts said: Like this was ever gonna go any different than the hundred other times some goofball looked at the FAQ and misread 'take with a grain of salt' as 'throw out the window.' Lol!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 All 32 teams use PFF. Some use it more than others, but they all use PFF services. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, CTM said: Why cause it says Sam stinks and you dont like that? Theres value in the metric. How the QB is performing in a sophisticated and apples to apples fact base manner is a solid foundation of which to start your analysis. Of course you then have to balance other factors like strength of teammates vs the understanding that the QB is normally the single biggest factor in overall unit performance. Theres certainly some predictive creative leeway there, but it's not as large as you might think unless of course it's extremely bad or extremely good. I can buy the state of the Jets line a few weeks back was so bad that it significantly inhibited Darnold. I think the changes they have made recently have made them competent enough that they are no longer a legitimate excuse. Even if / when Baltimore eats them alive The problem with PFF is that they require judgement. Someone is determine if a pass is a big time throw or a pass was turnover worthy. On this board alone we couldn’t agree if Darnold under threw Robby in the end zone game 1 versus the bills. I personally like football outsiders better because they have less human touch. They also account for the strength of the opponent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, GreenFish said: All 32 teams use PFF. Some use it more than others, but they all use PFF services. They all use the charting data because it's cheaper than paying an assistant to do it. They don't use the grades because they're more expensive than buying toilet paper at the store. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, GreenFish said: The problem with PFF is that they require judgement. Someone is determine if a pass is a big time throw or a pass was turnover worthy. On this board alone we couldn’t agree if Darnold under threw Robby in the end zone game 1 versus the bills. I personally like football outsiders better because they have less human touch. They also account for the strength of the opponent. The judgment isn't really the problem. I trust them to watch the plays and record what happens. The problem comes in where they arbitrarily assign numeric weights to things and then try to do quantitative analysis of the fake numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 hours ago, CTM said: 80 was saying they adjust for strength of teammates. I know they do that in Qbase but I don't think they do anything like that in DVOA and was too lazy to look. Maybe you know off top of head? They adjust for the strength of the opponent. It’s in the long version of the DVOA explanation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: The judgment isn't really the problem. I trust them to watch the plays and record what happens. The problem comes in where they arbitrarily assign numeric weights to things and then try to do quantitative analysis of the fake numbers. That’s fair. I just don’t trust people to apply judgement consistently. Humans are bad at that. We see it on the field every weeks with these damn refs. There actually stats might be more useful than their grades though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: And even that isn't a fix. Adjusting for situation works when the inputs are stats but not when it's charting data. If anything it only exacerbates the fact that the numbers are pseudo-quantitative in the first place. Have to agree. I’ve always looked at PFF as qualitative data. Useful for cross-referencing with the good stuff for sure though. If they were doing cross-tabulations that would be one thing but they have all these resources dedicated to scoring and they don’t go much deeper than simple nominal and ordinal stuff. EDIT: I don’t check PFF enough apparently. Had no idea they did stuff beyond the player scores. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, GreenFish said: That’s fair. I just don’t trust people to apply judgement consistently. Humans are bad at that. Correct, that’s why we use measures to test levels of error, significance...etc. FO uses those, PFF doesn’t. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: The judgment isn't really the problem. I trust them to watch the plays and record what happens. The problem comes in where they arbitrarily assign numeric weights to things and then try to do quantitative analysis of the fake numbers. Wait they actually run regressions? If so I’m not seeing the problem. Survey analysts run regressions on coder-determined scales based on questionnaire answers all the time (i.e. level of partisanship of a respondent). In those instances both the question and the scale are based on levels of discretion and quite often the results come out just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASH1962 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 7 hours ago, themeangreenkillingmachine said: I still don’t know what DVOA or DYAR stand for. how about at least telling us that? Don't feel bad my friend, I have no idea either LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 55 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said: Have to agree. I’ve always looked at PFF as qualitative data. Useful for cross-referencing with the good stuff for sure though. If they were doing cross-tabulations that would be one thing but they have all these resources dedicated to scoring and they don’t go much deeper than simple nominal and ordinal stuff. EDIT: I don’t check PFF enough apparently. Had no idea they did stuff beyond the player scores. Their actual stats are pretty solid. They have something called accuracy +. Basically they distinguish between a pass they is on the money versus a pass that is slightly off target and so forth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyes Of Adam Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 15 hours ago, CTM said: The math you believe in eh? Yeah, I mean, I am honestly trying to have an intelligent convo here. I have said I believe these are fantastic stats for measuring the offensive system, but not relevant for individual players. I believe in normalizing dependent variables if you are going to compare metrics. I am trying to understand from people who do believe in these metrics, for individual performance, or even more importantly, some predictive capabilities, why they believe in them if they are not normalized for really, really important dependent variables. I'd be happy to just say hey, Darnold sucks and it doesnt matter how good of a line we build, or WR's we get, he will always suck and we are wasting our time. I am just not there like you and others appear to be. Just trying to have some good conversation here, not its good enough. Oh, and happy Thanksgiving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 32 minutes ago, Eyes Of Adam said: I'd be happy to just say hey, Darnold sucks and it doesnt matter how good of a line we build, or WR's we get, he will always suck and we are wasting our time. I am just not there like you and others appear to be. Literally nobody is saying this. Nobody appears to be saying this. These are descriptive statistics. They tell you what happened. Jameis Winston is second in the league in passing yards this year. Nobody confuses this as being tantamount to an assertion that he's the second-best quarterback in football. If you can't get past this it's because you don't really want to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyes Of Adam Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 41 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: Literally nobody is saying this. Nobody appears to be saying this. These are descriptive statistics. They tell you what happened. Jameis Winston is second in the league in passing yards this year. Nobody confuses this as being tantamount to an assertion that he's the second-best quarterback in football. If you can't get past this it's because you don't really want to. Not sure why you're so angry brother, its all good. Have a good thanksgiving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 In 4 years when Darnold is the same age that Dak is now, we will watch Sam put up monster #s a and win huge games. We will be so glad the Jets QB search is long over. Someone will have paid Dak by that point. We will watch them win fantasy football games but not playoff games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 21 hours ago, Eyes Of Adam said: Not sure why you're so angry brother, its all good. Have a good thanksgiving. Hey we don't do politics here. I deleted that photo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyes Of Adam Posted November 29, 2019 Author Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Maxman said: Hey we don't do politics here. I deleted that photo. I don't think I posted any photo in this post did I? I definitely didn't intend to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Maxman said: In 4 years when Darnold is the same age that Dak is now, we will watch Sam put up monster #s a and win huge games. We will be so glad the Jets QB search is long over. Someone will have paid Dak by that point. We will watch them win fantasy football games but not playoff games. In four years we'll also be paying Sam Darnold 30 million or more per season. Keep that in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyes Of Adam Posted November 29, 2019 Author Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Warfish said: In four years we'll also be paying Sam Darnold 30 million or more per season. Keep that in mind. I can only hope that Darnold is good enough to justify that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 16 minutes ago, Maxman said: In 4 years when Darnold is the same age that Dak is now, we will watch Sam put up monster #s a and win huge games. It's going to take four years until Darnold's performance and unavailability stop costing us the season before we actually have any huge games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: It's going to take four years until Darnold's performance and unavailability stop costing us the season before we actually have any huge games? No, he will be four years in on a playoff stretch by that point in time. Doesn't matter, you won't be on the forums to share the joy with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Stats that don’t support your narrative: bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 hours ago, Warfish said: In four years we'll also be paying Sam Darnold 30 million or more per season. Keep that in mind. I can only hope we would be so lucky to have a QB worth paying $30m to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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