Jets highly unlikely to sign Anderson

[Dcat]

9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Hopefully we can get creative in free agency so that we'll pick up a compensatory pick for Robby.  

and that would happen only if we lose more UFAs than we get.  I'd hate to limit Joe Douglas in FA for the mere possibilities of getting a comp pick. If he wants to pick up an equal number or more UFA than the team loses, I'll be OK.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Dcat said:

and that would happen only if we lose more UFAs than we get.  I'd hate to limit Joe Douglas in FA for the mere possibilities of getting a comp pick. If he wants to pick up an equal number or more UFA than the team loses, I'll be OK.

It's not just about the number of FA's picked up.  It's an algorithm that also factors in the contracts they sign.

So, for instance, if we let go of Robby and bring in a UFA WR that's about half the cost, and that's the only UFA we bring in, we could still net a compensatory pick out of the deal.

[Dcat]

5 hours ago, choon328 said:

100% true about my disdain for Robby but it doesn't make my argument invalid.  I was correct in my assertion last off-season that the Jets should've traded Robby and signed John Brown. Some of RA's catches impressed me this past season but again he's wildly inconsistent.  He's at a point where he's not going to get better then what he's shown.  

Do you realize that the bolded sentence is sheer nonsense?  As Sam improves, so will Robby and the rest of the Jets weapons.  Might as well stop reading right there.  Not worth reading an extraordinarily biased view.  Yup... you "know" he's not going to get better.  LMAO.  

[Dcat]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

This gets washed out through sample size.  If Robby was getting overthrown by 10 feet all the time for 4 straight years by multiple different QBs, that would have been noticed by now.  

I sure as hell noticed him being overthrown often this past season.  People don't want to say it, but Darnold was inaccurate as heck this season.  (Yet we all notice it with Mayfield.)

[Dcat]

41 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's not just about the number of FA's picked up.  It's an algorithm that also factors in the contracts they sign.

So, for instance, if we let go of Robby and bring in a UFA WR that's about half the cost, and that's the only UFA we bring in, we could still net a compensatory pick out of the deal.

Fact:  In the last 5 years, only teams whose UFA acquisitions were fewer than their losses got comp picks.  No teams who had equal or more acquisitions got any.  Contract amounts and the like are mostly used for determining the round of the comp pick.  Although it is technically possible that a team with equal losses and gains can get a comp pick, it never happens.  I'd rather not put a limit on UFA pick ups if we lose Robby and others.  If it ends up less, then fine, otherwise no comp pick. Oh well. Not a reason to let Robby go. 

[RobR]

46 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's not just about the number of FA's picked up.  It's an algorithm that also factors in the contracts they sign.

So, for instance, if we let go of Robby and bring in a UFA WR that's about half the cost, and that's the only UFA we bring in, we could still net a compensatory pick out of the deal.

I don't think that is correct. Contract value, playing time, and even off season awards will factor into what round you get a comp pick but they still cancel each other out on a one for one basis regardless of the contract signed.

[choon328]

24 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Do you realize that the bolded sentence is sheer nonsense?  As Sam improves, so will Robby and the rest of the Jets weapons.  Might as well stop reading right there.  Not worth reading an extraordinarily biased view.  Yup... you "know" he's not going to get better.  LMAO.  

He's been the same player the last 2 seasons and there has been zero progression in his game. None whatsoever and any statement to the contrary is patently false. There is no indication that he will get better as a player but there is plenty of indication that he has plateaued as a professional WR. 

In his last 30 games he has:

20 games we're he's failed to gain 50 yards receiving. 

11 games where he failed to gain 25 yards receiving

18 games where he failed to record more than 3 receptions

9 games where he had 2 or less receptions. 

So let's review:

The past 2 seasons he has failed to record 50+ yards receiving in 66% of the games he's played in and 25 or less yards in 37% of those games. 

He's failed to record more than 3 receptions in 60% of the games he's played and 2 rec or less in 30% of those games. 

How can anybody suggest he's been a focal point of this offense? This past season, at best, he was the 3rd option behind Crowder and Bell. Demaryius Thomas averaged 3.27 rec and 5.27 targets per game and Anderson averaged 3.25 receptions and 6 targets per game. Pretty comparable target and reception share and that's where him being a 4th option at times comes into play. 

[choon328]

56 minutes ago, Dcat said:

I sure as hell noticed him being overthrown often this past season.  People don't want to say it, but Darnold was inaccurate as heck this season.  (Yet we all notice it with Mayfield.)

According to NextGen stats here are the Jets WR's ranked by separation defined as: 

Average Separation (SEP)

The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion

Crowder - 3.0

Thomas - 2.5

Anderson - 2.2 (117th in the NFL)

This is Anderson's biggest issue.  He can not beat man coverage unless he runs a Go route. 

WR's ranked by Cushion defined as:

Average Cushion (CUSH)

The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets.

Crowder - 6

Thomas - 5.8

Anderson -4.3 (Last in the NFL)

You would think with Anderson's speed they would play off him but bc he's weak and can not run anything but a Go route your best bet is to hit him off the line and throw the timing off with the QB. Other teams are not scared of hin running any other patterns that's for sure. 

You can't pay a man $15 million per year to be a straight line runner. 

[Dcat]

57 minutes ago, choon328 said:

He's been the same player the last 2 seasons and there has been zero progression in his game. None whatsoever and any statement to the contrary is patently false. There is no indication that he will get better as a player but there is plenty of indication that he has plateaued as a professional WR. 

In his last 30 games he has:

20 games we're he's failed to gain 50 yards receiving. 

11 games where he failed to gain 25 yards receiving

18 games where he failed to record more than 3 receptions

9 games where he had 2 or less receptions. 

So let's review:

The past 2 seasons he has failed to record 50+ yards receiving in 66% of the games he's played in and 25 or less yards in 37% of those games. 

He's failed to record more than 3 receptions in 60% of the games he's played and 2 rec or less in 30% of those games. 

How can anybody suggest he's been a focal point of this offense? This past season, at best, he was the 3rd option behind Crowder and Bell. Demaryius Thomas averaged 3.27 rec and 5.27 targets per game and Anderson averaged 3.25 receptions and 6 targets per game. Pretty comparable target and reception share and that's where him being a 4th option at times comes into play. 

But you are evaluating him in an inept offense.  You could do the exact same thing for Darnold and reach the same conclusions as you do for Robby.  Nope, I don't agree .  I think he has a lot of upside so I disagree with your prediction that he has topped out already.  That's ok. You're entitled to your view!

[Jetsfan80]

12 hours ago, RobR said:

I don't think that is correct. Contract value, playing time, and even off season awards will factor into what round you get a comp pick but they still cancel each other out on a one for one basis regardless of the contract signed.

That makes zero sense.  If all those things are factored in, then comp picks should never be a 1:1 situation.  I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, only that that would be a really stupid system.  

[Jetsfan80]

11 hours ago, Dcat said:

But you are evaluating him in an inept offense.  

Robby is part of the reason the offense has been so inept, because he's a WR2 trying to play the WR1 role.  He's not a solution, because paying him big money hinders our ability to pair him with a true WR1.  JD isn't going to pay Robby $13M+ per season THEN also go and use a 1st round pick on a WR.  That just doesn't happen in the NFL.  

[sec101row23]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That makes zero sense.  If all those things are factored in, then comp picks should never be a 1:1 situation.  I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, only that that would be a really stupid system.  

Those things most certainly are factored into the equation.   
 

The basics of the compensatory system

Again, all the material in this section is summarized from an OverTheCap article on the topic, or in some cases, from their original source.

1. To qualify for compensatory picks, you need to lose more (or better) free agents than you sign from other teams

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); [generally speaking,] he must sign during the UFA signing period 

There are some detailed exceptions to these rules, but they are not really important to this summary.

2. Each qualifying free agent must be assigned a value based on his contract, playing time and postseason honors, and that value corresponds to a round in the draft.

• Start with the actual APY of the contract signed.
• Subtract from the actual APY any money that the compensatory formula does not count. It has been determined that workout bonuses, incentives, and salary escalators are the most common money figures that the compensatory formula does not count.
• Adjust the APY by applying a coefficient based upon the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps the player took in his first year under the contract.
• Apply a positive coefficient to each UFA that obtained postseason honors

3. Once an adjusted APY has been determined, each UFA is given a value that either (i) assigns him as a CFA to a particular round ranging from the 3rd to the 7th, or (ii) does not qualify him as a CFA at all

The system for doing this is quite complex, but you don’t really have to understand it. OverTheCap publishes a cancellation chart on which they show their projected value for every free agent who changes teams in an off season. At any given point in the free agency period, you can click to this chart and see the status of any NFL team you are interested in.

4. Finally, once each team’s list of CFAs lost and gained are determined and valued, one-to-one cancellations are applied. Cancellations work as follows:

• A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained.
• If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value.
• A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out.

Any team that has more CFAs lost than CFAs gained will then be eligible for compensatory picks for the CFAs lost that were not cancelled out by CFAs gained.

[Dcat]

I don't get the comp pick discussion.  Fact: No team who acquired a greater number of Qualified UFAs than they lost has gotten a comp pick in the last 8+ years.  If you acquire the same or more Qualified UFAs, you are shut out of the comp pick distribution even if there are some exceptions in the rules.

The idea that Robby will yield us a comp pick is merely a possibility, not a certainty and it would be unwise to tie Douglas to a limited number of UFA acquisitions just because we may or may not lose/gain a comp pick in the following year.

[Philc1]

On 2/17/2020 at 9:44 AM, genot said:

He had Falk for three games, and a QB who was seeing ghosts against the Pats and Jaguars. That's close to 1/3 of the season with well below average, at best QB play. He would have had a thousand yards plus if Mccown didn't get hurt. Petty couldn't hit the broad side of a barn

End of the day he statistically wasn’t even the Jets best WR last year

[DirtyJersey]

On a winning team, Anderson is a #3 option, who runs go routes & post routes all day.  He can be cheaply replaced with the fastest guy available after rnd 4.