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On 9/26/2022 at 1:57 PM, Green Ghost said:

I remember reading here how dumb it is to take a RB high in the draft. Everyone said it was a waste of resources, you could get similar value picking one in the middle rounds.
 

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Meh, that's mostly in reference to taking one in the top 10 of round 1, not top 10 of round 2. I feel the same way about a center. Can be a great pick as you get closer to ~30 overall, but inside the top 10 it's a terrible waste of resources. RBs (like centers) aren't $20-40MM/year positions. 

Here's the other reason, which you're not considering because he's only had 2 games of starter-touches: RBs get injured like no other position. You don't know how durable a RB's going to be long term until you see it happen. Hopefully Hall holds up really well, but if he is constantly banged up as he gets 8-10 games into this season, or multiple seasons into his career, then you'll get a reminder why people don't like taking RBs early.

Other reason is they're rarely worth big $ on a second contract, so you're talking about investing a high pick for just 4 years plus maybe a year of franchise tagging. Alternative is a massive contract the team regrets a year or two before the guaranteed big-money seasons are behind them. Depends when they start their careers, but even top RBs mostly hit a wall by age 29 or year 6 whichever happens first.

I was behind taking Hall there & was excited when they did - not just the high pick, but the other 5th round pick used to move up to get him - because they had so many draft picks, you can start only so many rookies at the same time, and the team was still in need of playmakers on offense (and with draft picks, drafting one doesn't mean having one; you don't have one until you see it on an NFL field). I really liked Carter, who was Capt. Tacklebreaker as a rookie, but he certainly didn't look like some 300-400 touch RB. So if they only ended up having Hall for 4-5 years, then let him go as they seek a new young RB, I was still good with it. 

Thrilled with this pick.

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28 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Other reason is they're rarely worth big $ on a second contract, so you're talking about investing a high pick for just 4 years plus maybe a year of franchise tagging. Alternative is a massive contract the team regrets a year or two before the guaranteed big-money seasons are behind them. Depends when they start their careers, but even top RBs mostly hit a wall by age 29 or year 6 whichever happens first.

Yup.

They often lure franchises and their fans into emotional decisions as they become extremely popular and the early production gives you a false idea of how they'll play going forward. You sort by running back salaries in any given season and there's always a few horror stories near the top - We've seen Lev Bell, David Johnson, Zeke, Gurley get absurd contracts which have blown up in the faces of those teams - McCaffery and Barkley are great but they've missed way too many snaps to be worth what their teams are paying. 

It's a position where you need to be ruthlessly sensible. Thankfully we're a long way away from that and can just enjoy Hall in the mean time. I have been surprised how much better he's been that Carter tbh, he's a massive upgrade on what we have.

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