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New York Jets Mafia Game Thread

Bleedin Green

By Bleedin Green
in Mafia Game Forum

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Doggin94it

Doggin94it

Posted
Posted
I almost did :)... I just can't bring myself to after the way you jerked me around last year. Seems eerily similar to be honest. Everything you said made perfect "sense" then too.

BTW, remember what I did to win that game? Fake finder lying about identifying a guilty at endgame, so the town lynched an innocent and my mafia team won?

That's exactly what I'm worried about here, and why Vic needs to go today.

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Vicious89x

Vicious89x

Posted
Posted
BTW, remember what I did to win that game? Fake finder lying about identifying a guilty at endgame, so the town lynched an innocent and my mafia team won?

That's exactly what I'm worried about here, and why Vic needs to go today.

And when I die you'll get lynched because you're the god father. I'd recommend our vig to shoot this scum once I go.

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SMC

SMC

Posted
Posted

Outside the Axis, the 3 choices are WP, JT, Norway. From those 3, I'll chose:

Vote: WoodyPaige

Pac said he won't vote for the Doc (whom he won't reveal), so that means Woody isn't the Doc.

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slats

slats

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Again, run the damn numbers, Slats.

We have 10 players. An innocent lynch and 1 NK puts us at 8. That means, without a serial to bail us out tomorrow and unless the mafia is a 3-man team, tomorrow is endgame - we lynch an innocent, they kill one, and its 3 scum v. 3 town = game over, mafia wins.

Lynching the SK doesn't save us anything - it costs us.

This is basic math.

10 players. Likely 6 town, 3 scum, 1 SK.

Lynch the SK, and it's 5 town, 3 scum tomorrow.

Lynch scum, and it's either 4-2-1 or 5-1-1, with 4-2-1 being the more likely result - which is no better than 5-3.

Lynch random innocent, and it could be 4 town, 3 scum, 1 SK, or the SK could do us a favor and it's 5-2-1. 4-3-1 is the worst case scenario. Certainly worse than 5-3.

Math aside, lynching an innocent should stand out as the worst possible scenario - not something we should be working towards. And then once I do run the numbers, it's true! Lynching scum is obviously best, but taking out the SK is second best. Keeping him around in the hope that he'll hit scum doesn't really work as a plan for me. The SK could possibly extend the game, but he's more likely to end it quicker in favor of the scum.

I'm in favor of lynching Vic primarily because the more I think of his reveal, the less I like it. I don't like the spoon-fed Tony Richardson ID. I don't like the "bleeds green/doesn't bleed green" investigation result. I'm not looking to lynch him to exonerate myself - although I see that as a secondary benefit. If he's lynched and comes up as a sane cop, then I'd think the town would have to trust you & I as clean after, ironically, having a major hand in lynching the guy who cleared us.

And CTM, this goes to your lack of town power roles thing, too. I don't think there'd be so few town power roles, a SK, and a godfather - do you?

But again, that's secondary. I'd hope he comes up scum if we lynch him, and sort it out from there.

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CTM

CTM

Posted
Posted
CTM, no apparent traction on JT. Interesting that he's ready to jump on board to lynch potential cop though. Not at all surprising. Thoughts?

I want to see what it looks like when everyone else votes. Right now I like Woody better then Jets Things, but JT's bus is moving awfully slow..

Truth be told, I don't have much on either though..

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Jets Things

Jets Things

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Posted

I'm in favor of lynching Vic primarily because the more I think of his reveal, the less I like it. I don't like the spoon-fed Tony Richardson ID. I don't like the "bleeds green/doesn't bleed green" investigation result.

CTM, no apparent traction on JT. Interesting that he's ready to jump on board to lynch potential cop though. Not at all surprising. Thoughts?

Why is that not surprising? And do I need any other reasoning other than what slats said above? This isn't the first time in this game I've suspected Vic of scummy behavior. Check back on my votes.

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Doggin94it

Doggin94it

Posted
Posted
10 players. Likely 6 town, 3 scum, 1 SK.

Lynch the SK, and it's 5 town, 3 scum tomorrow.

Lynch scum, and it's either 4-2-1 or 5-1-1, with 4-2-1 being the more likely result - which is no better than 5-3.

Lynch random innocent, and it could be 4 town, 3 scum, 1 SK, or the SK could do us a favor and it's 5-2-1. 4-3-1 is the worst case scenario. Certainly worse than 5-3.

Math aside, lynching an innocent should stand out as the worst possible scenario - not something we should be working towards. And then once I do run the numbers, it's true! Lynching scum is obviously best, but taking out the SK is second best. Keeping him around in the hope that he'll hit scum doesn't really work as a plan for me. The SK could possibly extend the game, but he's more likely to end it quicker in favor of the scum.

The numbers are right but the conclusion is wrong.

Lynch the SK, and it's 5 town, 3 scum.

That makes tomorrow endgame, because if we lynch an innocent (dropping us to 4-3), the game is over (mafia kills a townie, 3-3, mafia wins).

With the SK still alive, though (4-3-1), if we lynch an innocent (3-3-1) the game is not necessarily over. Because even when the mafia kills a townie (2-3-1), if the serial kills a mafioso (2-2-1), the game goes on. Of course, if the Serial misses and kills an innocent, then we lose 1-3-1. But the odds would favor the serial hitting mafia (50-50, actually), and losing 1-3-1 isn't any worse than losing 2-3-1.

And if we lynch an innocent today, the serial absolutely will not kill tonight (unless he's dumb). If he kills tonight, then he doesn't get a chance to kill tomorrow night unless we get it right tomorrow (in other words, he gets only one more kill in the game).

If he holds off tonight, he's guaranteed a chance to kill tomorrow night (i.e., he gets one more kill in the game).

So, whether he kills tonight or tomorrow night, unless we lynch scum one of the two days, the Serial will only have one kill left. So, the only smart thing for him to do would be to save it until the odds are more in his favor - i.e. tomorrow night, when there are less players to choose from.

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slats

slats

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CTM, no apparent traction on JT. Interesting that he's ready to jump on board to lynch potential cop though. Not at all surprising. Thoughts?

I think either Woody or JT is likely scum. I have very little on either. The problem with that is if we lynch either one of them and we're wrong, we get next to no info. I also suspect Vic. The upside with Vic is that if we lynch him and he turns up innocent, at least we should come away with some info.

If you want to give me something compelling on JT - I'm listening.

I'm out to the hospital then work, should be back in a couple hours depending on my workload. I'll save my vote 'til then.

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ZachEY

ZachEY

Posted
Posted
I think either Woody or JT is likely scum. I have very little on either. The problem with that is if we lynch either one of them and we're wrong, we get next to no info. I also suspect Vic. The upside with Vic is that if we lynch him and he turns up innocent, at least we should come away with some info.

If you want to give me something compelling on JT - I'm listening.

I'm out to the hospital then work, should be back in a couple hours depending on my workload. I'll save my vote 'til then.

That's the thing. You never get much on him or JT. At some point you have to take a chance on them. I'm currently leaning JT over Woody, and Woody over Vic. So, that's where I sit.

If vic comes back cop, he's yet to give us a confirmed guilty, we've got troubles, and with only Doggin/slats, the former of which has drawn godfather suspicion from the potential cop himself, we've got ourselves a mess on our hands moving forward if Vic isn't scum. Because, then we lose Pac by proxy, and sure, he's the likely target, but if they're both good, game over.

This just doesn't taste right.

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CTM

CTM

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The fact that no one besides CTM and I are even willing to put a vote on JT now makes me question him even more. If he's got partners, they know what's up, and are likely avoiding him.

Yeah, that's what I meant about his bus moving slowly..

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slats

slats

Posted
Posted
The fact that no one besides CTM and I are even willing to put a vote on JT now makes me question him even more. If he's got partners, they know what's up, and are likely avoiding him.

Yeah, that's what I meant about his bus moving slowly..

I'm begging you guys for something I can run with on JT. What do you have besides "gut feeling" at this point?

Vic's role reveal is the scummiest thing I've personally got right now. The believability of Pac's makes Vic's worse. What do you think is the likelihood that both Pac and Vic are on the up & up? If they are, Bleedin went out of his way to put a lot of dissimilar flavor in two remarkably similar roles.

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CTM

CTM

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The most intriguing part of the idea of not lynching one of our cops is that it probably assures that they both survive the night.

The doc can then protect SMC Slats or Doggin, to keep a confirmed innocent alive..

And we can debate directing who the cops investigate to try and see if the scum will kill one of them to clear out a confirmed innocent or have them investigate one another

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CTM

CTM

Posted
Posted

Food for thought:

Here's Vic's first post after Bleedin's Jets babe death scene on day 1

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1238477&postcount=806

Hopefully our cop comes up with something tonight. I think slats is a prime suspect here.

Here's Vic's first post after Bleedin's morning scene, night 1

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1240884&postcount=920

When I was converted over in the zombie game... the scum wanted to get rid of JiF asap. This was due to his "renegade" sort of style. JiF marches to the beat of his own drum and it can be advantageous to the town and detrimental to the scum. Scum (as EY stated) will sometimes use someone to manipulate and steer the town into certain directions. Looking back at the posts I think we can lay-off on slats. It smells to much like bait IMO. A lot of us were publically questioning him and it seems like a well thought out move by scum to NK JiF.

So either this was a well thought out plan by Vic, from day 1, or he's being honest. Also - in the zombie game, EY gave him back his results too early, he came into thread and announced he thought SMC was innocent, seemingly out of the blue. Our scum team hadn't put the NK in yet so when I saw this post, I interpreted as him potentially being the cop so I NK'd SMC since he was a confirmed innocent (I would've NK'd Vic, but I was hoping to convert him)

Again, either Vic has gotten a lot better at this game since then, or he's being honest..

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CTM

CTM

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Posted

The more I think about it, I think I want to let this play out 1 more day.

I think the rest of the axis of evil should be looked into tonight, cause frankly all of us being alive doesn't make sense. Pac should investigate EY and Vic should investigate me. And yes I'm being selfish, but I'm more suspicious of Vic and if he comes back innocent with me I will feel better about him seeing as tomorrow may be sell out day for scum..

Further I think the doc should flipa coin between our cops on who to protect..

I'm going to unvote vote Woody, to push this along

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Doggin94it

Doggin94it

Posted
Posted
The fact that no one besides CTM and I are even willing to put a vote on JT now makes me question him even more. If he's got partners, they know what's up, and are likely avoiding him.

Yeah, that's what I meant about his bus moving slowly..

Well, there's the two of you . . .

Then there's me, and I'm not voting JT for the same reason I wasn't voting Woody (BTW, what exactly is "pressuring" JT going to do if you'll both leap off of him for saying "roleless townie" the same way you leapt off of Woody?) - I think we need to lynch Vic

There's JT, and he's obviously not going to vote for himself

There's Pac SMC and Vic (all currently voting Woody)

And there's Norway, who's grasped the fact that we can't let the cop-cop situation last another day.

So I guess the only one you can really think is scummy is Norway - and in my mind, he's the guy whose vote is least scummy, because its most likely to help the town.

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Doggin94it

Doggin94it

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Posted
The more I think about it, I think I want to let this play out 1 more day.

I think the rest of the axis of evil should be looked into tonight, cause frankly all of us being alive doesn't make sense. Pac should investigate EY and Vic should investigate me. And yes I'm being selfish, but I'm more suspicious of Vic and if he comes back innocent with me I will feel better about him seeing as tomorrow may be sell out day for scum..

Further I think the doc should flipa coin between our cops on who to protect..

I'm going to unvote vote Woody, to push this along

I'd actually prefer for them to investigate each other, since if they both come back innocent, then either they are both innocent, or one of them is a godfather.

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Doggin94it

Doggin94it

Posted
Posted
Food for thought:

Here's Vic's first post after Bleedin's Jets babe death scene on day 1

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1238477&postcount=806

Here's Vic's first post after Bleedin's morning scene, night 1

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1240884&postcount=920

So either this was a well thought out plan by Vic, from day 1, or he's being honest. Also - in the zombie game, EY gave him back his results too early, he came into thread and announced he thought SMC was innocent, seemingly out of the blue. Our scum team hadn't put the NK in yet so when I saw this post, I interpreted as him potentially being the cop so I NK'd SMC since he was a confirmed innocent (I would've NK'd Vic, but I was hoping to convert him)

Again, either Vic has gotten a lot better at this game since then, or he's being honest..

Or he's scum being coached

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SMC

SMC

Posted
Posted
Food for thought:

Here's Vic's first post after Bleedin's Jets babe death scene on day 1

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1238477&postcount=806

Here's Vic's first post after Bleedin's morning scene, night 1

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1240884&postcount=920

So either this was a well thought out plan by Vic, from day 1, or he's being honest. Also - in the zombie game, EY gave him back his results too early, he came into thread and announced he thought SMC was innocent, seemingly out of the blue. Our scum team hadn't put the NK in yet so when I saw this post, I interpreted as him potentially being the cop so I NK'd SMC since he was a confirmed innocent (I would've NK'd Vic, but I was hoping to convert him)

Again, either Vic has gotten a lot better at this game since then, or he's being honest..

SOB

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CTM

CTM

Posted
Posted
I'd actually prefer for them to investigate each other, since if they both come back innocent, then either they are both innocent, or one of them is a godfather.

That is almost certainly setting up a scenario where both say the other is guilty..

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ZachEY

ZachEY

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Posted
I'd actually prefer for them to investigate each other, since if they both come back innocent, then either they are both innocent, or one of them is a godfather.

That's not a bad idea.

My only fear is that they're going to come back screaming bloody murder, and we'll be at this again...

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CTM

CTM

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Or he's scum being coached

I don't know how many people on day 1 would tell Vic to make sure he gives away obv cop tells like he did in the zombie game with anticipation that he was going to fake claim

It's certainly possible, and I probably would've, maybe you.. But i'm not sure who else..

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CTM

CTM

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Posted
That's not a bad idea.

My only fear is that they're going to come back screaming bloody murder, and we'll be at this again...

I suggested it a while back but reconsidered. If doggin is right and 1 of them are scum, this is almost exactly what they will do...

OR, the scum will oie and say innocent as a wifom to look more innocent..

I'd rather have them commit to you and my alignment as if 1 of them is scum, they will be in sell out mode..

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CTM

CTM

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I suggested it a while back but reconsidered. If doggin is right and 1 of them are scum, this is almost exactly what they will do...

OR, the scum will oie and say innocent as a wifom to look more innocent..

I'd rather have them commit to you and my alignment as if 1 of them is scum, they will be in sell out mode..

oie = lie

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