Sanchez in best position to succeed

[NIGHT STALKER]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/trainingcamp10/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=5476409

Like Brett Favre, I skipped Mankato, Minn., and Vikings training camp. Seeing the Vikings without Favre wouldn't have been worth the travel investment.

Instead, it was fun visiting three players among the next wave of potential franchise quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford of the Lions, Mark Sanchez of the Jets and Sam Bradford of the Rams. Sanchez might be the least talented of the trio, but it's easy to see why he will be the most successful early in his career.

The Jets are loaded on offense.

Like Ben Roethlisberger with the Steelers in 2004, Sanchez came to the right team at the right time. For years, the Steelers were making playoff runs with a running game, a great defense and a strong-willed coach in Bill Cowher. When Tommy Maddox went down with an injury, Roethlisberger stepped in and helped carry the team to a 15-1 record and a trip to the AFC title game.

Roethlisberger was asked to throw 21 passes a game because the Steelers could run the ball well. A 66 percent thrower that season, Roethlisberger completed 14 passes per game and has now grown into one of the game's top five quarterbacks.

Sanchez can't match Roethlisberger's size or throwing skills, but he should actually put up better stats than Big Ben this year. The reason is the surrounding cast. Newcomers Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson add a 50-plus-reception wideout and an accomplished pass-catching running back to a receiving corps that also has Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and tight end Dustin Keller.

As you know if you follow me, I give a lot of credence to the "Theory of 50," although it also works if you call it the "Theory of 48.'' The theory states that if you combine the number of completions with the number of rushing attempts per game, a good offense will come out with a total of 48 to 50. A great offense will have 52 or more.

The 2009 Jets offense might not have been great, but Sanchez averaged 13 completions a game and the Jets had 38 rushing attempts a game. They went to the AFC Championship Game.

With five potential 50-plus-catch options, Sanchez could easily add five completions per game to his totals. Edwards and Holmes are on one-year contracts. Tomlinson is an aging running back going year-to-year. The Jets plan to run the ball every bit as much as they did a year ago, and it would be a surprise if Sanchez doesn't complete more than 60 percent of his passes this season.

He's worked on his throwing to the left, a mechanical problem that plagued him in 2009. One of the subtle keys to his development this season is the use of motion packages. Sanchez was too raw and inexperienced to make the calls to put receivers in motion last year. Now, he can use Edwards as a flanker, put him in motion and hit him in stride with throws he couldn't execute last season.

"Sometimes, it's just a matter of sending you in and say, 'Just go play,''' Sanchez said in camp. "I think that comes with learning the system and feeling comfortable. You also need to let things go. You just need to get to the next play if you have a bad run play or an interception or incompletion. You just need to let it go. You can analyze the error but don't have paralysis by analysis.''

Sanchez threw an interception for a touchdown early in Monday night's Jets-Giants preseason game. He put that mistake behind him and moved the offense well for the next few series, showing his growth.

Stafford has a stronger arm than Sanchez, but it will take him a couple more seasons to come close to being as successful. As the first pick in the 2009 draft, he landed on a Detroit Lions team that went 0-16 the year before.

As a rookie, he was doomed from the start. Stafford completed 20 passes a game, but he was usually playing from behind and was constantly pressured. His completion percentage was 53.3. He threw 20 interceptions and only 13 touchdowns.

The Lions did get Stafford some help. Tight end Tony Scheffler should pull some coverage away from wide receiver Calvin Johnson, and Nate Burleson is a threat at split end that wasn't there last season.

Stafford would drop back and not have many places to go with the ball last season.

"We should be able to get a little more single coverage on guys this year,'' Stafford said. "Last year, teams would double Calvin Johnson and have two guys on Brandon Pettigrew and we struggled to find an answer as a third. We also have a back [Jahvid Best] who can be a home run hitter. That should help.''

As he reviewed the film, Stafford was amazed by how boxed in the offense was. Not only did teams put a cornerback and a safety on Johnson, but they would buzz a linebacker near him to completely make it impossible for a pass to be thrown to him. It's amazing Johnson caught 67 passes for 984 yards with that type of attention.

Bradford doesn't have a Calvin Johnson-type receiver. He does have one of the best runners in game in Steven Jackson, but the receiving corps is pretty anonymous. Donnie Avery offers some quickness from the flanker position, but he has averaged only 50 catches for 632 yards in his first two seasons. Laurent Robinson is an intriguing split end, but he has only 55 catches in three seasons. There really isn't a solid pass-catching tight end.

Bradford has excellent accuracy and touch on his throws. But too often, Rams receivers aren't open enough to be targeted. He's also playing behind a suspect offensive line.

Bradford and Stafford don't show any signs of jealousy, but they sure wouldn't mind being in Sanchez's shoes behind center.

[Bruce Banner]

He's worked on his throwing to the left, a mechanical problem that plagued him in 2009

I don't buy this. Most of his INTs were to the left because he kept trying to force the ball to Braylon and Braylon was mostly on the left.

[Aten]

I don't buy this. Most of his INTs were to the left because he kept trying to force the ball to Braylon and Braylon was mostly on the left.

It's a coincidence that more of his picks went to the left than to the right. It's not a coincidence that all of them went to the sides instead of over the middle, and that's not a product of forcing the ball to Braylon or anything else mental. It's his arm.

[Matt39]

It's a coincidence that more of his picks went to the left than to the right. It's not a coincidence that all of them went to the sides instead of over the middle, and that's not a product of forcing the ball to Braylon or anything else mental. It's his arm.

No, it's not.

[Bruce Banner]

It's a coincidence that more of his picks went to the left than to the right. It's not a coincidence that all of them went to the sides instead of over the middle, and that's not a product of forcing the ball to Braylon or anything else mental. It's his arm.

No INTs over the middle. Did you watch the last preseason game.

[Aten]

No INTs over the middle. Did you watch the last preseason game.

I'm talking about last season.

[GodWearsAGrayHoodie]

Matthew Stafford of the Lions, Mark Sanchez of the Jets and Sam Bradford of the Rams. Sanchez might be the least talented of the trio, but it's easy to see why he will be the most successful early in his career.

I agree with this. He is the least talented of the three, but he will have the most success.

[Matt39]

I agree with this. He is the least talented of the three, but he will have the most success.

Bradford isnt more talented than Sanchez.

Gimmick offense is college. No thanks.

[Fifth Amendment]

Bradford isnt more talented than Sanchez.

Gimmick offense is college. No thanks.

Agree. I'm not a Sanchez fan, but Bradford is even worse.

[Fifth Amendment]

I don't buy this. Most of his INTs were to the left because he kept trying to force the ball to Braylon and Braylon was mostly on the left.

Agree. IIRC 12 of the INTs were intended for Braylon.

[Aten]

Agree. IIRC 12 of the INTs were intended for Braylon.

Braylon was the target on ten interceptions last year, and that includes the Browns. Even if it didn't, Cotchery was the intended receiver on seven picks, so it's not like the numbers remotely justify the theory that the interceptions were caused by something that can be stopped like flipping a switch.

[Fifth Amendment]

Braylon was the target on ten interceptions last year, and that includes the Browns. Even if it didn't, Cotchery was the intended receiver on seven picks, so it's not like the numbers remotely justify the theory that the interceptions were caused by something that can be stopped like flipping a switch.

Thx. not sure where I got 12 from. Where'd you get the stat?

Didn't mean to imply that the INTs could be curtailed by flipping a switch. They were caused mostly by bad decision making and poor game management IMO. I know it was just a preseason game, but that first pass was indicative of the type of throw that Sanchez supposedly spent all off season learning not to make. For his sake, I hope he tightens up b/c the Jets wont even sniff the playoffs if MS doesn't step his game up considerably. Sanchez is perceived as a weak link now, and teams aren't going to sit back and let you guys run the ball 37 times a game anymore. You don't have the RBs to handle a workload like that even if they did. The offense will have to be more balanced, and MS will have to make plays in the passing game on a consistent basis. I hope he's up for it. Just not against the Dolphins.

[Aten]

Thx. not sure where I got 12 from. Where'd you get the stat?

Well, unless you actually sat there and 'R'd twelve specific plays, at least two of which didn't really happen, it's probably because you were guessing. Stat is from FO Almanac.

[Fifth Amendment]

Well, unless you actually sat there and 'R'd twelve specific plays, at least two of which didn't really happen, it's probably because you were guessing. Stat is from FO Almanac.

Def not a guess. And it'd take a year and a half to review all of Sanchez' picks. I got it from FO, they made a specific reference to the # of picks intended for Edwards, bad memory did me in.

[slats]

Didn't mean to imply that the INTs could be curtailed by flipping a switch. They were caused mostly by bad decision making and poor game management IMO. I know it was just a preseason game, but that first pass was indicative of the type of throw that Sanchez supposedly spent all off season learning not to make. For his sake, I hope he tightens up b/c the Jets wont even sniff the playoffs if MS doesn't step his game up considerably. Sanchez is perceived as a weak link now, and teams aren't going to sit back and let you guys run the ball 37 times a game anymore. You don't have the RBs to handle a workload like that even if they did. The offense will have to be more balanced, and MS will have to make plays in the passing game on a consistent basis. I hope he's up for it. Just not against the Dolphins.

Haha! I hadn't realized teams were just sitting back letting the Jets run the ball 37 times a game. Sucks they're not going to allow that anymore. Damn.

I want the Jets to have a more balanced attack, and believe that they will. They didn't add Santonio Holmes to block. But to say the Jets don't have the backfield to do that again this year is just silly. They did it last year with Washington gone before mid-season, and Thomas Jones carrying the load almost the whole year. This year, they've got Greene and LT to split carries, and added the most hyped FB to ever play pro football in John Conner. Brad Smith and Joe McKnight will rush the ball, too. Jets won't be running 60% of the time this year, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they rush 55% of the time.

[Fifth Amendment]

Haha! I hadn't realized teams were just sitting back letting the Jets run the ball 37 times a game. Sucks they're not going to allow that anymore. Damn.

I want the Jets to have a more balanced attack, and believe that they will. They didn't add Santonio Holmes to block. But to say the Jets don't have the backfield to do that again this year is just silly. They did it last year with Washington gone before mid-season, and Thomas Jones carrying the load almost the whole year. This year, they've got Greene and LT to split carries, and added the most hyped FB to ever play pro football in John Conner. Brad Smith and Joe McKnight will rush the ball, too. Jets won't be running 60% of the time this year, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they rush 55% of the time.

35 rushes per game comes out to 560 carries. LT can give you 100 or so. Greene 300 or so. That leaves 10 carries per game for Brad Smith b/c McKnight is a bad joke at this point. The numbers don't add up. Even if they did, you'd be talking about Greene as a worn down shell of the back who was bulldozing his way thru opposing defenses late last year.

Second, take a look at your schedule. The Pats, Fins, Ravens, Vikings, Bengals, Browns and Steelers all have good run defenses. You're not going to run your way to the playoffs this year. Sanchez will have to make plays consistently, something he wasn't asked to do last year. There's a scouting report on the Jets, and it reads, "crowd the LOS, force Sanchez to beat you", and that'll be the strategy that teams use against the Jets. You might think you'll be able to duplicate the success you had last year running the ball, but don't say I didn't warn you.

[Boozer76]

I don't buy this. Most of his INTs were to the left because he kept trying to force the ball to Braylon and Braylon was mostly on the left.

Wow, that's just pure nonsense. He may not have Brett Favre's arm but he certainly doesn't have any sort of deficiency in arm strength. His arm is PLENTY strong enough to make every throw in the NFL. The reason he threw so many picks is simply because he's a rookie.

[slats]

35 rushes per game comes out to 560 carries. LT can give you 100 or so. Greene 300 or so. That leaves 10 carries per game for Brad Smith b/c McKnight is a bad joke at this point. The numbers don't add up.

Again, I expect the Jets to want to pass more, but you're severely underestimating how many carries LT can give us. I expect him to average over 10 a game. He'll handle most third downs, most goal line carries, plus a series or two a game. He's going to get a lot of touches.

[gangreenman]

Again, I expect the Jets to want to pass more, but you're severely underestimating how many carries LT can give us. I expect him to average over 10 a game. He'll handle most third downs, most goal line carries, plus a series or two a game. He's going to get a lot of touches.

I agree. If I had to guess Id say Greene averages about 13-15 carries per game, LT gets 7-10 carries (about 12-14 touches) per game, and McKnight and Smith to combine for 3-5 carries per game.

[aec4]

Not to be picky, but if you are going to be a journalist, you can't be wrong with facts. Sanchez did NOT throw a pick 6 against the Giants.

[Mandarinia]

It's a coincidence that more of his picks went to the left than to the right. It's not a coincidence that all of them went to the sides instead of over the middle, and that's not a product of forcing the ball to Braylon or anything else mental. It's his arm.

It's not his arm, it's him not looking for defenders. Sanchez is right handed so he's facing the right side of the field. He doesn't see the left side of the field. His arm is more then fine.

[Sharrow]

I stopped reading after he said Rapelisberger was a top 5 QB.

[BroadwayJ667]

It's a coincidence that more of his picks went to the left than to the right. It's not a coincidence that all of them went to the sides instead of over the middle, and that's not a product of forcing the ball to Braylon or anything else mental. It's his arm.

Shenanigans on that one. I haven't seen any sign of trouble throwing to his left because of his arm. It is a known fact that quarterbacks struggle throwing across their body until they learn the technique to do it. It is far from easy. You have to turn your body to the throw in order to execute it. In addition you have to step through it for the pass to be effective.

That pass he threw to Braylon in the championship game certainly didn't look like it was lacking anything

[Integrity28]

Not to be picky, but if you are going to be a journalist, you can't be wrong with facts. Sanchez did NOT throw a pick 6 against the Giants.

This.

[Aten]

That pass he threw to Braylon in the championship game certainly didn't look like it was lacking anything

The bomb? Seriously?

[Fifth Amendment]

Again, I expect the Jets to want to pass more, but you're severely underestimating how many carries LT can give us. I expect him to average over 10 a game. He'll handle most third downs, most goal line carries, plus a series or two a game. He's going to get a lot of touches.

Sure, LT can give you more than 6 carries a game. But he is nowhere near as effective as Shonn Greene as a runner. He's not an ideal 3rd down back b/c he doesn't pick up blitzes well, and he's not an ideal goal line back b/c he doesn't move piles or generate yds without a decent sized hole. IMO there will have to be a balancing act between doing whats necessary to win games tactically (using Greene) and doing whats necessary to succeed over the course of the year strategically (keeping Greene fresh).

That's where Sanchez comes in. If he can shoulder more of the load on his arm, then that solves alot of problems, both tactically and strategically. Question is, can he shoulder that load, and will the coaches trust him enough to let him try? The easy answer is yes, but if he doesn't play significantly better than he did in 09, then it's back to the drawing board.

[Bruce Banner]

Wow, that's just pure nonsense. He may not have Brett Favre's arm but he certainly doesn't have any sort of deficiency in arm strength. His arm is PLENTY strong enough to make every throw in the NFL. The reason he threw so many picks is simply because he's a rookie.

I haven't said one word about arm strength.

[Jbro22]

Usually people say Claytons a joke and don't even entertain his articles. Kinda surprised.

[Fifth Amendment]

Usually people say Claytons a joke and don't even entertain his articles. Kinda surprised.

He is a jokespert. A joke until he says something that people want to hear, then he's an expert.

[#27TheDominator]

Sure, LT can give you more than 6 carries a game. But he is nowhere near as effective as Shonn Greene as a runner. He's not an ideal 3rd down back b/c he doesn't pick up blitzes well, and he's not an ideal goal line back b/c he doesn't move piles or generate yds without a decent sized hole. IMO there will have to be a balancing act between doing whats necessary to win games tactically (using Greene) and doing whats necessary to succeed over the course of the year strategically (keeping Greene fresh).

Are you kidding? The guy is fine at the goal line. Even in his two sh*tty seasons he's gotten double digit TDs.

[NIGHT STALKER]

Are you kidding? The guy is fine at the goal line. Even in his two sh*tty seasons he's gotten double digit TDs.

Exactly...lol. The guy's forte his entire career is goal line scoring.

[slats]

Sure, LT can give you more than 6 carries a game. But he is nowhere near as effective as Shonn Greene as a runner. He's not an ideal 3rd down back b/c he doesn't pick up blitzes well, and he's not an ideal goal line back b/c he doesn't move piles or generate yds without a decent sized hole. IMO there will have to be a balancing act between doing whats necessary to win games tactically (using Greene) and doing whats necessary to succeed over the course of the year strategically (keeping Greene fresh).

That's where Sanchez comes in. If he can shoulder more of the load on his arm, then that solves alot of problems, both tactically and strategically. Question is, can he shoulder that load, and will the coaches trust him enough to let him try? The easy answer is yes, but if he doesn't play significantly better than he did in 09, then it's back to the drawing board.

You're trying to hard.

LT carried the majority of the load in San Diego last year with 223 carries. I'm suggesting he can carry the ball 160 times this year - on a team with a much better line, and much more of a commitment to the run. This is not a stretch. I know LT's production has gone down in recent years, that's why he's taking on a part time role here. Also don't get where he's not good at pass blocking. The guy's spent his career on the field on passing downs. He can pick up the blitz, and be a viable safety valve. The guy's also never had fewer than 10 TD's in a season, including last year when his total number of carries dropped from 292 (his previous low for a season) to 223. The guy gets in the end zone. There is no balancing act here between Greene and LT, they have different skill sets and they'll be used accordingly.

Greene is a bulldozer, and I don't expect that kind of production out of LT. I do think he'll get his average back over 4.0, and manage another dozen TD's, though.

You'll see a shift to more passing this year, too, There will be more short passing with LT, and then you've got Braylon here for the whole year, and Santonio returning week 5. You won't see the 60/40 split, though, probably closer to 55/45. But it'll be a noticeable uptick.

[Jetsfan80]

Also don't get where he's not good at pass blocking. The guy's spent his career on the field on passing downs. He can pick up the blitz, and be a viable safety valve.

I agree. Just look at the 1:53 mark of this video. LT knows how to pick up the blitz.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmyNzJQN0I&feature=search

[slats]

I agree. Just look at the 1:53 mark of this video. LT knows how to pick up the blitz.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmyNzJQN0I&feature=search

I hope he does another one of these now that he's in NY. I could totally be his dancing uncle in a new version.

[greenerdaze]

Wow, that's just pure nonsense. He may not have Brett Favre's arm but he certainly doesn't have any sort of deficiency in arm strength. His arm is PLENTY strong enough to make every throw in the NFL. The reason he threw so many picks is simply because he's a rookie.

A rookie with lousy protection.

Sanchez was running for his life more often than not.