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Sanchez Vs. Pennington/Favre

villain_the_foe

By villain_the_foe
in NY Jets Forum

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villain_the_foe

villain_the_foe

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Many Jet fans have stated that Sanchez isnt "progressing". These are the same Jet fans who rooted for Pennington and Brett Favre during their years as Jets .

Lets put their best Jet years to a comparison.

Pennington 2002: Games 15 Comp. 275 Yards 3,120 TD's 24 INT's 6 Sacks 22 QB rating 104.2

Favre 2008: Games 16 Comp. 343 Yards 3,472 TD's 23 INT's 22 Sacks 30 QB rating 81 (Probowler)

Sanchez 2011: Games 13 Comp. 242 Yards 2,859 TD's 26 INT's 11 Sacks 28 QB rating 83.1

Sanchez is the 2nd QB to throw 20+ TD's with Schotty as OC. Sanchez will pass both Favre and Pennington for total TD's in a season and also has a shot at Passing Namath as well (26) which I think he'll get. Sanchez after today holds the record for most Rushing TD's in a season by a Jets QB. Sanchez will most likely pass Pennington's best year (2006) in total yards of 3,352 and could possibly surpass Favre's total yards as well.

If (when) the Jets make the playoffs Sanchez will be the first Jets QB to take his team to 3 straight playoff appearances, doing so in his first 3 years as a pro.

Whether people want to accept it or not, Sanchez is putting up one of the best seasons by a Jets QB in Jets history, and he's doing so under a ground and pound offensive philosophy and with the worst O.C. in Schotty. Sanchez has just 1 pass for 40+ yards this year. ONE! This stat in itself can explain why it seems like opposing defenses can jump routes. Sanchez had eight 40+ yards pass plays his rookie year and 10 his 2nd year. However, Sanchez is on on pace to better his stats in pretty much every major QB category this year, just as he did in year 2.

With that said, this is the same QB thats getting boo'ed though he's the first Jets QB to play in 2 afc championship games as a jet....and did it back to back at that. Oh, and he did it in his first two years in the pros.

The Jets offense is #1 in the redzone this year, which before anyone gives Schotty's credit given his strength of "small ball", this obviously has more to do with Tom Moore than anything. No wonder Rex decided to keep Moore around. Schotty days are numbered.

Sanchez for 3 straight years has shown that he's clutch in pressure situations and also knows how to put together a winning streak both in regular season play and twice in the playoffs.

Sanchez is the best QB this team has had in respects to talent and youth since Joe Namath. With all the love that Pennington and Namath receives from this fanbase im surprised how divided people are with Sanchez, especially given the obvious fact that he's not even a veteran in this league yet has already showed a very important QB trait such as the ability to be clutch.

We're always trying to get rid of him. His first year he was a "bust", his second year people wished we would have drafted Josh Freeman, this year people wish we would trade for Peyton Manning. Yet through all this Sanchez has done nothing but win football games in the clutch come crunch time. Sanchez today looked like he changed his mode. Some of us caught it today with his "attitude" on the sidelines. Sanchez know's that he's in the playoffs right now. Dude went out and had a 4 TD game for the second time in 3 weeks and has totaled in that 3 week span 9 TD's and 1 INT with a 3-0 record and a 6th seed spot during crunch time.

Sanchez is a good but streaky Quarterback that tends to be at his best with his back against the wall or at home (lost just one game at home this year).

Also, big up to Shonn Greene, another rejected Jet who's quietly having his best season and like his quarterback has been playing clutch during crunch time with his 2nd consecutive 100 yard game and a 50+ yard receiving day.

Sorry for interrupting our regularly scheduled program of "Peyton Manning: offseason trade of the century" and "Tebowdom: The man, The icon, The legend". Oh, and lets not forget the honorable mention " Josh Freeman: Top 100 NFL player"

.

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CTM

CTM

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If you're going to pad Sanchez's TD total by adding in his rushing scores, why not add the 6 fumbles he has lost to his INT total?

or try not comparing him to the worst player in the history of team sports, chimpoko punington

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villain_the_foe

villain_the_foe

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If you're going to pad Sanchez's TD total by adding in his rushing scores, why not add the 6 fumbles he has lost to his INT total?

Because Fumbles arent interceptions, but like interceptions they're turnovers. Rushing TD's are still TD's.

You cant pad TD totals with TD's, It just "is", however you can pad interceptions with fumbles in order to undermine the fact that he really didnt throw that many INT's, you just wanted him to look bad. Im not interested in hating on Sanchez, just showing the stats for what they are....which are pretty good for a 3rd year QB yet jet fans keep bitching all the way through the playoff run.

You're smarter than that bro.

P.S. If you noticed, I also gave Chad and Brett their rushing TD's as well to keep it honest. How about accepting the fact that Sanchez has 26 TD's and not looking for an excuse to hate.

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JohnnyHector

JohnnyHector

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Because Fumbles arent interceptions, but like interceptions they're turnovers. Rushing TD's are still TD's.

You cant pad TD totals with TD's, however you can pad interceptions with Fumbles.

You're smarter than that bro.

P.S. If you noticed, I also gave Chad and Brett their rushing TD's as well to keep it honest. How about accepting the fact that Sanchez has 26 TD's and not looking for an excuse. Then again, this isnt Tim Tebow we're talking about here.

Apparently I'm not smarter than that, because when people cite QB's passing stats, I would find it odd to add rushing TD's to the total. I guess I must have missed the celebration for Cam Newton breaking Peyton Manning's rookie TD record.

If you want to go through the futile effort of favorably comparing Sanchez's 2011 performance in the No Defense League to the historically bad QB carousel post-Namath, he's not even in the same stratosphere as Ken O'Brien was in '85/'86... you know, in his 2nd and 3rd years as an NFL starter.

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villain_the_foe

villain_the_foe

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Apparently I'm not smarter than that, because when people cite QB's passing stats, I would find it odd to add rushing TD's to the total. I guess I must have missed the celebration for Cam Newton breaking Peyton Manning's rookie TD record.

If you want to go through the futile effort of favorably comparing Sanchez's 2011 performance in the No Defense League to the historically bad QB carousel post-Namath, he's not even in the same stratosphere as Ken O'Brien was in '85/'86... you know, in his 2nd and 3rd years as an NFL starter.

I do, because this is what the league is now. The bottomline is that his stats are his stats.

And I didnt know that Cam broke Peytons Rookie TD record. Thats f'ing awesome! Dude is the real deal you know this right? I mean we're not talking Tebow here. Im talking about "legit".

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AVM

AVM

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Old man Favre had a busted throwing arm. Had he been healthy as Sanchez has been, those numbers would be significantly different. We'd also have another AFC-E championship, and who knows what else.

It's already been said best. Mark is what he is. Maybe being pissed off will help. I'll believe it when I see it (long term).

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Jets Voice of Reason

Jets Voice of Reason

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If you're going to pad Sanchez's TD total by adding in his rushing scores, why not add the 6 fumbles he has lost to his INT total?

This times a million. It's not like they didn't happen... I don't know exactly how many points have directly resulted from Sanchez turnovers and/or how many points he's cost the team from scoring with red zone turnovers, but i'd say the number is pretty high for a QB.

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JohnnyHector

JohnnyHector

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I do, because this is what the league is now. The bottomline is that his stats are his stats.

His stats are his stats in the context of the NFL in 2011, but aside from being measured in terms of the same categories, have little-to-no correlation to the performance of prior Jets QB's, especially not those before 2004, when the illegal contact crackdown started.

And I didnt know that Cam broke Peytons Rookie TD record. Thats f'ing awesome!

He didn't, as he only has 15 TD passes to Manning's 26. That was my point.

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JustInFudge

JustInFudge

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This times a million. It's not like they didn't happen... I don't know exactly how many points have directly resulted from Sanchez turnovers and/or how many points he's cost the team from scoring with red zone turnovers, but i'd say the number is pretty high for a QB.

Its the highest in the league...something like 42 pts the last I checked.

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Damaged89

Damaged89

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This times a million. It's not like they didn't happen... I don't know exactly how many points have directly resulted from Sanchez turnovers and/or how many points he's cost the team from scoring with red zone turnovers, but i'd say the number is pretty high for a QB.

66. They mentioned it on the cbs broadcast. Good for highest in the league.

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stoicsentry

stoicsentry

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I calculated it out, and it looks like for the 2nd straight year, Sanchez's TD/INT ratio will improve +8. Year 1 - 12/20 (-8), Year 2: 17/13 (+4), Year 3: ~26/~14 (+12). Not bad. If that's where he ends and he can continue to improve at about half the rate he's currently going at, we're looking at a very good career.

His completion percentage has improved +1% (year 1 to year 2) and then +2% on top of that (year 2 to 3). Still it's at 56.8% so that's not so good. He needs to get that up to 60% bare minimum. Ideally, I'd re-sign L.T. and Burress if possible to give some continuity for the first time in his career. Then again, he's been with Holmes for more than a year and for whatever reason he's still not communicating well with him.

QB rating improved +12 (year 1 to 2) from 63 to 75, and +8 so far (year 2 to 3) from 75 to 83. Hopefully he finishes around 85 QBR and next year's target should be 90+.

Avg. per pass has barely moved since he made it to the league (6.7 in year 1, 6.5 in year 2, back to 6.7 now). Would be nice to get that above 7, but we're going to have to see more downfield shots.

The rushing touchdowns are pretty cool... year 1: 3, year 2: 3, year 3: 5 so far... hopefully another before it's over. He's obviously not a rushing QB in the vein of Vick or Tebow, so this stat is very interesting. He sure has a nose for the end zone, and it's nice to know he can create that when a play breaks down in the red zone.

Biggest knock is obviously the fumbles, 6 lost this year. 3 of them were against the Ravens, and I just don't think there was anything he could do about those. Fundamentally I don't think ball security is much of a problem for him, but I guess he needs better awareness of when the pocket is collapsing.

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JohnnyHector

JohnnyHector

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His completion percentage has improved +1% (year 1 to year 2) and then +2% on top of that (year 2 to 3). Still it's at 56.8% so that's not so good. He needs to get that up to 60% bare minimum.

Avg. per pass has barely moved since he made it to the league (6.7 in year 1, 6.5 in year 2, back to 6.7 now). Would be nice to get that above 7, but we're going to have to see more downfield shots.

The league average during his tenure is a comp pct of nearly 61% and a Y/A exceeding 7.0. He needs to improve and not by an insignificant measure.

Biggest knock is obviously the fumbles, 6 lost this year. 3 of them were against the Ravens, and I just don't think there was anything he could do about those. Fundamentally I don't think ball security is much of a problem for him, but I guess he needs better awareness of when the pocket is collapsing.

I would say ranking 7th/5th/7th in most fumbles suggests a trend...

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stoicsentry

stoicsentry

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The league average during his tenure is a comp pct of nearly 61% and a Y/A exceeding 7.0. He needs to improve and not by an insignificant measure.

Sure, but the league average is wildly higher due to the likes of Brees, Peyton, Eli, Brady, etc. I'd be more interested in the mode than the mean.

I would say ranking 7th/5th/7th in most fumbles suggests a trend...

Supposing that's true, yes... but 1) I'm more interested in fumbles lost than total fumbles, and 2) Most of Mark's fumbles this year came from being absolutely mauled within 2 seconds of taking the snap... that's an o-line issue now and to an extent a pocket awareness one more than a ball security one. In his first 2 years, Sanchez played very fast and loose with the football. That was especially true when the play broke down and he was scrambling/rushing. I don't see that from him this year, do you?

I would also like to hear your thoughts about the fact that Sanchez' TD/Int ratio has risen +8 from year 1 to 2 and is projected to raise an additional +8 from year 2 to 3. However bad his rookie season was (bad, but not the worst ever), increasing that ratio +8 and +8 again in 2 straight years is impressive, isn't it?

I'm not even trying to argue that Sanchez is top 15 in the league. He probably isn't. What I am trying to argue is this: 1) he has progressed this season, not regressed, 2) the progression from year to year has been reasonable, 3) as long as the improvement continues at a reasonable rate, it's well worth it to stick with him as QB.

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villain_the_foe

villain_the_foe

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His stats are his stats in the context of the NFL in 2011, but aside from being measured in terms of the same categories, have little-to-no correlation to the performance of prior Jets QB's, especially not those before 2004, when the illegal contact crackdown started.

He didn't, as he only has 15 TD passes to Manning's 26. That was my point.

Oh, I thought your point was Sanchez not having 26 TD's because fumbles are now interceptions. Sorry for not following bro. I'll try better.

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JohnnyHector

JohnnyHector

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Sure, but the league average is wildly higher due to the likes of Brees, Peyton, Eli, Brady, etc. I'd be more interested in the mode than the mean.

Assuming you meant the median (as the mode offers no value for the purpose of this discussion), it's not much of a departure from the mean. You're neglecting that for every Manning, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, there's a Jamarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, and Blaine Gabbert. It's a little more skewed this year than the last two, with 18 teams coming in below the average, but that doesn't excuse being ranked 25th in the league.

Supposing that's true, yes... but 1) I'm more interested in fumbles lost than total fumbles, and 2) Most of Mark's fumbles this year came from being absolutely mauled within 2 seconds of taking the snap... that's an o-line issue now and to an extent a pocket awareness one more than a ball security one. In his first 2 years, Sanchez played very fast and loose with the football. That was especially true when the play broke down and he was scrambling/rushing. I don't see that from him this year, do you?

I see a guy that puts the ball on the turf more than most of his contemporaries, regardless of the reason. I think total fumbles are more meaningful in looking for a trend, as the recovery of said fumble is out of the QB's control more often than not. He's started over 50 NFL games and his inability to identify from where the pressure is coming is still alarmingly bad at times.

I would also like to hear your thoughts about the fact that Sanchez' TD/Int ratio has risen +8 from year 1 to 2 and is projected to raise an additional +8 from year 2 to 3. However bad his rookie season was (bad, but not the worst ever), increasing that ratio +8 and +8 again in 2 straight years is impressive, isn't it?

It's not something I generally pay a whole lot of attention to, as it represents such a small subset of his overall pass attempts. Does he have more than 2 TD's of over 20 yards? Half of his TD passes have come in goal-to-go situations. For all of the bellyaching about Schottenheimer holding back Sanchez, he's the one dialing up the short passes in the red zone that have buoyed Sanchez's TD total.

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stoicsentry

stoicsentry

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Assuming you meant the median (as the mode offers no value for the purpose of this discussion), it's not much of a departure from the mean. You're neglecting that for every Manning, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, there's a Jamarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, and Blaine Gabbert. It's a little more skewed this year than the last two, with 18 teams coming in below the average, but that doesn't excuse being ranked 25th in the league.

I see a guy that puts the ball on the turf more than most of his contemporaries, regardless of the reason. I think total fumbles are more meaningful in looking for a trend, as the recovery of said fumble is out of the QB's control more often than not. He's started over 50 NFL games and his inability to identify from where the pressure is coming is still alarmingly bad at times.

It's not something I generally pay a whole lot of attention to, as it represents such a small subset of his overall pass attempts. Does he have more than 2 TD's of over 20 yards? Half of his TD passes have come in goal-to-go situations. For all of the bellyaching about Schottenheimer holding back Sanchez, he's the one dialing up the short passes in the red zone that have buoyed Sanchez's TD total.

You're going to throw out TD/INT ratio as a measure of a QB? Seriously? OK, please comment on his QBR or suggest a stat that you prefer.

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