The Illusion of Draft AnalCysts

[Adoni Beast]

Richard Sherman who sometimes I feel is smart and eloquent and sometimes a phony blowhard makes a great point here.

http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/19455/seahawks-cb-richard-sherman-draft-analysts-are-talking-to-a-bunch-of-sheep

I've never listened to Kiper who looks loke a sleazy ambulance chasing lawyer or McShay who looks like that annoying virgin no girl would sleep with in high school and became an annoying prinicipal. I never hated Mayock but sometimes he's so off base he's that drunk relative who you just smile and laugh at when he tells you his new big business idea after asking to borrow money.

[Larz]

its ok richard, you weren't a first round pick because they are big dummies and so are we

 

it depends on who you listen to.  there is gil brandt, jeremiah, charles davis, bucky brooks

agreed kiper just gets his info from other people, but he invented the business of TV talking head draft guy

[Adoni Beast]

It's mostly guesswork and the ones they get right are obvious. I just don't like the whole "expert" titles that go along with their job. They have no real inside info or football expertise.

[Beerfish]

Yeah,except the dumb ass draftniks also at times draft far better than established gms and football people, see the john idzik disaster vs the the average noodle head draft follower.

[Irish Jet]

WalterFootball, who are the worst out there, have us drafting Spriggs at #20, they had us taking him at #51 a few days ago. They have us taking Cardale Jones in the 3rd. A lot of people have him going undrafted!

I’m not saying this can’t happen, but there’s just no level of consistency. You have people grading hypothetical picks and talking definitively about  prospects we can’t be sure will/will not adapt. It’s become an industry in itself.

I’m more invested in this one than I have been for years, for reasons I’m not quite sure of. I enjoy watching the prospects, seeing the next generation of players and wondering how they’ll adapt. Everyone draws their own conclusions but you can only take an educated guess. It’s slightly different when you mortgage a draft or trade away guys like Mo because you’re dealing with definitive implications. They are moves I’d absolutely hate but even then it might work out better. 

There are guys we could draft that would have me pretty annoyed, but ultimately I’m clueless to what will happen in the long run. It’s sort of a game in itself - You invest yourself in seeing the guys you want go to your team, then try and convince yourself the guy you actually took is any good. It’s fun in its own way I guess. 

Just don’t draft another defensive lineman in the first ffs.
 

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

The NFL draft isn't any different from anything else. There's good information out there, and there's bad information out there. Being able to tell the difference is your responsibility.

[Adoni Beast]

32 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

WalterFootball, who are the worst out there, have us drafting Spriggs at #20, they had us taking him at #51 a few days ago. They have us taking Cardale Jones in the 3rd. A lot of people have him going undrafted!

I’m not saying this can’t happen, but there’s just no level of consistency. You have people grading hypothetical picks and talking definitively about  prospects we can’t be sure will/will not adapt. It’s become an industry in itself.

I’m more invested in this one than I have been for years, for reasons I’m not quite sure of. I enjoy watching the prospects, seeing the next generation of players and wondering how they’ll adapt. Everyone draws their own conclusions but you can only take an educated guess. It’s slightly different when you mortgage a draft or trade away guys like Mo because you’re dealing with definitive implications. They are moves I’d absolutely hate but even then it might work out better. 

There are guys we could draft that would have me pretty annoyed, but ultimately I’m clueless to what will happen in the long run. It’s sort of a game in itself - You invest yourself in seeing the guys you want go to your team, then try and convince yourself the guy you actually took is any good. It’s fun in its own way I guess. 

Just don’t draft another defensive lineman in the first ffs.
 

I saw that Cardale Jones in the 3rd and couldn't believe it either. What a joke. I'd take every other QB in this draft but him. 

[PepPep]

I mean, duh, I agree with Sherman about these 'expert' analysts. But the fact is, they DO have more information b/c in part, its their job to sit there and research it- every year. I'd like to see Sherman's mock and how WRONG he will be. Fact is most fans don't want and don't have the time to sit around researching each team's needs and who each team has been scouting and what position they want to address, etc., etc. 

Also, is this arrogant jerk blaming THE FANS??? The fans are SHEEP for being interested in the draft and NFL football in the off-season? Is he suggesting that fans actually BELIEVE and AGREE with everything Kiper and McShay predict? Its all a guessing game. Sherman needs to not insult the intelligence of the fans. 

Every time Sherman says anything smart, anything meaningful he follows it up with an ignorant, egotistical rant that typically involves insulting fans or fellow players. He undermines all the positives that come out of his mouth with all the garbage that follows right after. This millionaire needs to shut his mouth and sit down b/c without the fans and their allegiance, there would be no NFL.      

[PepPep]

9 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

I saw that Cardale Jones in the 3rd and couldn't believe it either. What a joke. I'd take every other QB in this draft but him. 

Why? 

[Adoni Beast]

I don't like his lack of games playes, system he was in, his lack of touch on throws, poor mechanics and footwork. I'm just not a fan. But what do I know? I'm a amateur and this guesswork, just like everyone else here and on espn.

[Villain The Foe]

On 4/24/2016 at 3:19 PM, Larz said:

its ok richard, you weren't a first round pick because they are big dummies and so are we

 

it depends on who you listen to.  there is gil brandt, jeremiah, charles davis, bucky brooks

agreed kiper just gets his info from other people, but he invented the business of TV talking head draft guy

Precisely why he cant be taken seriously. 

[Adoni Beast]

1 hour ago, Villain The Foe said:

Precisely why he cant be taken seriously. 

It's like they say if you can't do somethinf teach it, and Kiper couldn't teach either because he doesn't know anythinf about football, so he just made up a job and convinced a network that he is a draft expert. He's a talking head spewing out mostly obvious or complete fabricated pieces of information that teams purposely feed him.

[nyjbuddy]

I find more validity in the NFL Network guys, Mayock, DJ, Charles Davis, than the ESPN guys than Kiper, McShay (though really good).  It is a lot of work that they do put in though and to me they are pretty good at it.  If you think about it, every year about 3000+ draft eligible players come out of college (FBS / FCS not counting the other divisions).  They need to evaluate guys like Carson Wentz, Noah Spence as well as Jared Goff, Joey Bosa.  They also need to look into guys like Matt Cassel, who didn't play much at USC but still has had a 10 year NFL career.  They need to dwindle that list down to about 750 of draftable prospects.  These are the guys that will get drafted or possibly sign a UDFA deal.  Then they have to grade and rank these players based off of hours of game film, interviews, research, etc.  Then determine their own board of top 100 or top 50 or top whatever number based on their own scouting ability.  (For most fans this is the point of involvement, after the top 50 or so are determined.) After they determine their board, to create a mock draft, they use what they hear around the league to determine which players are being talked about by what team.  A lot of it is smokescreens and personal opinion rather than truthful information.  This is what separates the good from the bad.  Its the connections around the league and reading between the lines that determine which source to trust.  For example, Jeremiah last year was correct on 29 out of the 32 first round picks.  McShay had 28 of 32 and had 17 picks within a 2 draft position difference.

As for whether or not these player stick around the NFL?  Here are the percentages of the number of years in the league by draft round (taken from 2014 [past decade], http://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around):

Round	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.7	93.5	83.9	77.4	71.0
2	96.8	96.1	83.9	74.2	41.9
3	96.9	75.1	62.5	37.5	18.8
4	91.4	74.3	54.3	34.3	17.2
5	81.1	56.8	37.8	24.3	16.2
6	70.2	57.5	35.3	20.9	10.6
7	58.3	45.8	31.3	21.7	16.7

Seems like the top 50 is pretty good at sticking around for at least 4 years.  Compared to NFLPA average career of 3.3 years and the NFL's claim of a 6 years average, I'd say the talent evaluators are doing a pretty good job of identifying which players are worth investing a 1st/2nd round pick for vs a later round pick.  To even get drafted these guys are in the top 10% of possible draft eligible players.  To be a first rounder, you need to be in the top 2%.  To be able to decipher the top 2% with 80+% accuracy is pretty impressive.