How Do the Jets Win a Game?/Patriots

[varjet]

Heading into the Draft, I thought it would be interesting to analyze what the Jets need to do to win more than 4 games this season.  I think this should probably inform the draft picks.

Its easy to say "we improved," but so did many teams.  Our 2022 opponents look like a particularly rough slog.  But the best analysis usually involves taking a complex situation and breaking it up into manageable pieces.   So let's take each of our opponents, one-by-one, and figure out how the Jets are going to beat them, on offense and defense.  I do not have the expertise of many of you, but I can try and look at these situations from a gut perspective.  

Let's start with the teams that we play 2x next season.  First stop:  The Patriots. 

Jets Offense:  BB is the best DC in football.  Patricia and anyone else just manages the practices.   They will be strong against the run and look for cover man-to-man.  Yes, they lost JC Jackson, but they will look for a cover CB in round 1/2.    Maybe EM can beat the Patriots' coverage-no one else is.  Hopefully the plan is to be able to run on this defense, which is always hard, but that is the only way we are going to score points on this team and keep our defense off the field.

Next Steps:  We got some TEs and OL to help here.  If we want to make progress against the Patriots, another RB (like a Breece Hall) is critical.   For every opponent I will say another/better WR, but maybe for the Patriots we don't need that this much, because they will cover whomever we get.  

Jets Defense:  Mac Jones is not scaring anyone deep, and McDaniels is gone.  But when you look at the middle of the Jets defense, in terms of stopping the run and the intermediate passing game, the Jets currently lack the run stopping DT (unless QW steps up, which I think he does ($)) and LB.  Whitehead will help, but the defense will really depend on Joyner/Davis stepping up and staying on the field.  

Next Steps: This defense needs help if we want any chance of beating the Patriots at least once.    A LB like Muma or Dean could make a critical difference, as will more depth/ability at S.  We need to stop their running game and TE/RBs receiving.  I don't see the NFL's worst defense last year having the players to do that this year, against the Patriots.

2022 Projection:  Maybe 1-1, if the Jets add the right players before Labor Day.  

 

[The Crusher]

Play them  on a windy day, 

[Hael]

Pats took a bit of a hit in FA as they lost their best player on O (Mason is one of the best guards in the league), and of course an elite CB (making their overall cb situation a problem).  Next year they will be vulnerable in the air.  Of course we likely won't have an elite WR to really take advantage of that (like Diggs did).  As usual they will likely make up for it somewhat (they always look bad in FA and then they draft ok and take on a few smart cuts/mid season trades).

Overall i'm expecting a sidegrade from the team that dropped 50 on us last year.  Jones will likely always be a problem for Saleh's defense, so yea, you want to play them in crappy weather.  But in all honestly its a particularly terrible matchup!  ZW against a BB defense is the stuff of nightmares.

 

[Hex]

Jets probably have to beat the Pats with defense. BB's defense is going to be good for a while, but the offense is questionable. That's the big reason on why they mauled us each game last season, because our defense sucked.

[varjet]

28 minutes ago, Hex said:

Jets probably have to beat the Pats with defense. BB's defense is going to be good for a while, but the offense is questionable. That's the big reason on why they mauled us each game last season, because our defense sucked.

I agree with this, and for these two games, 1/8.5 of the season, that would require drafting more defense ( and more than Edge).

I think we see a lot of that 

[PepPep]

You DO NOT draft with the Patriots in mind. I repeat. You DO NOT draft with the Patriots in mind. Focus on building your team the way you want it to be- to compete with ANY opponent. We also play the Phins and Bills twice. Should we then draft based on their roster? What if they change their roster the following year? This is the kind of mistake JD made (potentially) when he drafted James Morgan. I don't see him making that mistake again.   

RIGHT NOW, the Jets need Edge and WR help. I think they are looking to come away with two starters from those positions. It seems like JD prefers a vet WR and would rather trade for one, so we may see that happen before/during the draft. The Jets also need Safety and LB help but IMO that is secondary. I think they feel ok with Joyner, Davis, Nas, Pinnock, Parks, and Riley...along with Whitehead at SS as a pair going into the season. I think LB is more important but the Jets will be ok to continue developing Sherwood and Quincy as long as they can bring in another young LB with upside- does not have to be early in the draft. 

So we will see the Jets looking at value (top talent on their board) with a particular eye on Edge, WR and LB with the first 4 picks in the draft- IMO! And most importantly, they will be looking to TRADE. Trade for a proven WR (I still have hope for DK), trade for future draft assets (2023 1st round pick via move down from pick 10), trade for a specific player who they are targeting in the draft (Burks makes sense if he slides).    

[PFSIKH]

Shaq Mason was a good player and is a loss.  However, his performance over the past few years has been up or down.  He has not been as consistent.

As far as the run D, it has been bad for two years.  

I agree with your point about Bill.  If not the best, he is on the Mount Rushmore of defensive geniuses in the NFL.  This team has been Top 10 in points allowed the past two seasons and no one has confused this team's D being elite.  With that being said, Bill can get 8-10 wins out of this team.

This team is clearly in the second tier of the AFC.  Whether it can push for the next tier will reside in the players drafted this year or the past few finally stepping up along with Jonnu, Godchaux and Agholor proving their worth after getting some good money last year.  

 

 

[UntouchableCrew]

I would say that we need to. Getting swept for the 7th year in a row by a very "ordinary" team that seems to be in decline would be a bad sign for this regime.

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

What about the other 15 games?  You don't build a team to beat one opponent.  

[Larz]

Ground and pound.  Don’t turn it over  hit 2-3 shots a game  

win the hidden yards on specials 

Stop the run and win with pass rush on 3rd down on defense. 

edge, DT, WR, RB probably fairly close to the first 4 picks 

 

[PrincetonJetsFan]

I don't post much (if ever), but I do read this board religiously. I don't think the OP is suggesting that we "draft with the Patriots in mind" ... just that we discuss each of our opponents in the upcoming season, figure out how we match up & maybe (since it's the pre-draft silly season) consider which draft picks would be especially helpful in the context of that particular opponent.

I'm actually looking forward to this series of threads ... it's something different, and hopefully draws out some more interesting & thoughtful posts. (But not from me ... I've nothing to add, I've got lots to learn ... and I'm easily amused.)

[Larz]

15 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I would say that we need to. Getting swept for the 7th year in a row by a very "ordinary" team that seems to be in decline would be a bad sign for this regime.

[varjet]

2 minutes ago, PrincetonJetsFan said:

I don't post much (if ever), but I do read this board religiously. I don't think the OP is suggesting that we "draft with the Patriots in mind" ... just that we discuss each of our opponents in the upcoming season, figure out how we match up & maybe (since it's the pre-draft silly season) consider which draft picks would be especially helpful in the context of that particular opponent.

I'm actually looking forward to this series of threads ... it's something different, and hopefully draws out some more interesting & thoughtful posts. (But not from me ... I've nothing to add, I've got lots to learn ... and I'm easily amused.)

Thank you.  That was my point.  

I think after 12 or so threads we will see a trend in terms of what type of players the Jets will need to win more than 4 games next season.

But although you do not draft with one team in mind, I don't think it is any secret that teams do construct themselves to beat their rivals.  I think will touch upon the problem with all of the Jet GMs since Tannenbaum-they seem to be playing a game other than "build a winning team."  Maccagnan was obviously drafting players not to bust, not drafting players that would improve the record.  JD in 2020 swung for fences with high upside/high downside prospects.  It did not work.  Last year he found safe players at lower value positions that would make the roster and play decently.  Relatively victory.  What does he do this year?

Next up?  Dolphins.