Sitting a rookie QB down a few weeks doesn't matter.

[TheAustrian]

19 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Cool....

So your point is, what exactly?  That it is a crap shoot whether to start them or not as a rookie?  I don't think we need Peyton Manning telling us that.  What if you had competent coaching that would determine whether someone should start right away, and while they are getting ready, you have a competent back-up who can win you some games, help create a winning mentality, and all build success within the franchise?  I bet that could work. 

cool story bro - so Jetsfan80 is the gm now? i dont think he would be against having a competent qb in the locker room

[bicketybam]

cool story bro - so Jetsfan80 is the gm now? i dont think he would be against having a competent qb in the locker room

If the GM was picked by the sheer number of posts on JN, then yes....he's the GM!

[CanadaSteve]

1 hour ago, TheAustrian said:

cool story bro - so Jetsfan80 is the gm now? i dont think he would be against having a competent qb in the locker room

Thanks Austrian....I appreciate it.  I guess when he said Peyton Manning agrees with him, I thought he was having delusions of grandeur.  Thanks for letting me know he is, in fact, not our GM.  I am sure he will apply though, like half this board will, next year when the inevitable happens (like it always does).

[greenwichjetfan]

On 2/21/2024 at 5:18 AM, Dunnie said:

... Posted this in another thread ... But it's apropot here ..

"
....
But ... Maholmes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Colin Kapernick, Michael Vick, Phillip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Chad Henne, Jacoby Brisset.., did not start as rookies.

The list is impressive to say the least ... But ... Maholmes, Rogers, Brees, Brady .. Mt Rusmore

Montana did not start until his sophomore year either .. he didn't suck.

"

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk


 

Wait, so everyone's just gonna slide right past "Maholmes" like it's not a thing? 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Cool....

So your point is, what exactly?  That it is a crap shoot whether to start them or not as a rookie? 

My point is the people yelling for the Jets to sit rookie QBs and who think that actually matters are horribly mistaken.  Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold and Mark Sanchez would have sucked sh*t even if they sat 3 years.  Hell, Hackenberg sat 2 years here and still sucked not at the NFL level, but the AAF level.

Moreover:  The issue for the Jets has been primarily a QB prospect evaluation problem, not a QB development problem.

Sanchez didn't play enough in college.  Darnold didn't play QB at all in HS and was a boogie boarding mush.  Zach Wilson had 25-year old men protecting him at BYU and the few games he played against tough competition who forced him to speed his game up...he looked as lost as he does as a 3-year pro.  He was a mid-round prospect being masqueraded as an elite prospect.  Hackenberg, meanwhile, was a 6th round prospect who Macc took at pick 40.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

YOU BET!  Can we do the dozens and dozens of QB's who sucked starting right away too!  This game is F-U-N!

60-70 % of 1st/2nd round QBs bust no matter how long they sit.  So obviously there's a larger quantity of QBs who sucked playing right away.  But the rate doesn't change so clearly sitting or not is pretty meaningless.

[TheAustrian]

JetsFan80 for JetNationBoard Captain next season

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, TheAustrian said:

JetsFan80 for JetNationBoard Captain next season

[Plen T]

Categorically wrong

you clearly never put pads on in your life

arnchair quarterback 😆

[Jetsfan80]

42 minutes ago, Plen T said:

Categorically wrong

you clearly never put pads on in your life

arnchair quarterback 😆

Here comes Mr Jock to tell us how his HS JV team was just like the NFL huh.

There’s always one of those.

Btw you can’t argue that a point is “categorically wrong” if you have no data to support it beyond anecdotal evidence.  Just saying.

[Chewy and the Jets]

Gotta hand it to the Jets though.  Through all of the booms and busts of young NFL quarterbacks I cannot ever recall a redshirt season for a player going into his third year.  We are really special when it comes to sucking at developing at this position. 

[greenwichjetfan]

This was a mostly fun thread to read through. Don't get very many threads where real debate is front and center without the petty sh*t.

I think greats will be great and busts will be busts, regardless of circumstances. I also think mids will be the most sensitive to external factors such as roster talent, playcalling, and coaching - as well as consistency or lack of consistency in the FO. What I think is a critical issue is when that determination is made.

Scouting/talent evals/interviews all play a part in helping to select the QB. There are certain parameters that help the evals - such as # of college starts, contextualized productivity and efficiency scores, etc.  However, when the QB is drafted, no one knows whether they're drafting a GOAT, mid, or bust - regardless of who's picking. We can get into anecdotes like the rest of this thread, but there is no data out there that proves any type of persistent success by a static team of evaluators/scouts and their GM.

When talking about first round QBs - they have 4 years locked with an expensive 5th year option. Whether you play that first round QB in year 1 or sit him year 1, you're still going to give him year 2 and probably year 3 to show what he has. There are very few exceptions to this.

Given the above, I believe it makes sense to sit the QB for year 1 and let him learn. There's more to it than just learning the schemes or language. It's understanding concepts and getting reps during practices over the first year. It's getting acclimated to the way life changes when your bank account blows up for the first time. It's figuring out your day to day operations and schedules. It's assimilating to the new team and new NFL culture.

If a young guy gets to absorb all of that behind the scenes, it very well may impact his trajectory in a positive way whereas playing from day 1 might impact his trajectory in a negative way. Maybe more importantly, it provides the front office with better data to make long term decisions: 

1. Busts will bust. He's still going to set the franchise back, and there will probably be FO/coaching changes that go along with letting go of the 1st round QB after just one season of starts. Whether it's year 1 or year 2 of the rookie contract isn't going to matter. 
2. Mids will clearly indicated through the first contract year of practices and in the QB room whether they belong in the NFL. In year 2, how they perform relative to the rest of the team will inform how the FO should move forward with the QB. The critical element here is that the FO/coaching staff can effectively remove any concerns about whether the QB was not prepared mentally or couldn't handle the grind - and focus simply on whether he's able to translate what he's learned onto the field and execute in a reasonable manner.  
3. Greats will be great starting in year 2 of their contract and will be even more prepared mentally to play. This QB will still play 15+ years.

In my opinion, if this route had been taken with Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson, I think our recent past would look very different right now. In my eyes, Sam had the potential to be mid-to-great, whereas I wanted no part of Zach because he screamed bust to me from the moment I started looking at him while he was at BYU. I think both players came out raw with not enough college starts and required time to sit and learn. I think if Sam had the time to sit, he may be a mid-level starter in the league somewhere like Baker or Kirk. I think if Zach had the time to sit, the coaching staff/FO could have seen early on that he wasn't getting it in the classroom, so when he would have gotten his shot in year 2, he would have proved their doubts correct, and they would have looked to move on from him in a significant way (as opposed to going backwards and letting him sit in year 3 of his contract). 

[Dunnie]

1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

This was a mostly fun thread to read through. Don't get very many threads where real debate is front and center without the petty sh*t.

I think greats will b....

The problem here is that the Jets rookie environment is crap for QBs .. they cannot develop them - there hasn't been a clear adhered to developmental plan in place for any of these guys. From what I have seen on Hard Knocks or whatever .. the entire organization is pretty lax and clueless.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

The problem here is that the Jets rookie environment is crap for QBs .. they cannot develop them - there hasn't been a clear adhered to developmental plan in place for any of these guys. From what I have seen on Hard Knocks or whatever .. the entire organization is pretty lax and clueless.

Then why have no young Jets QBs gone on to success elsewhere outside of Geno Smith, who also failed to move the needle much with the Giants and Chargers until finally becoming about an average or a little above average QB in Seattle 9+ years later?

Darnold went to the perfect place to develop in your eyes - SF, and looked just as clueless and turnover prone as he did as a Jet despite having all those SF weppinz at his disposal and an offensive genius coaching him.  He was supposed to supplant Brock Purdy and become somewhere between a capable starter and a star and he hasn't come even close.  This after failing in his prior spot in Carolina, too.  Dude has had Christian McCaffrey at TWO stops and couldn't capitalize.  

Sanchez failed at FOUR spots post-Jets, including a QB-friendly stint with Philly.  He couldn't win the job over Trevor Siemian in Denver (laughable when you see how bad Siemian is these days).  Hackenberg was picked up by the Raiders, was dumped quickly, then ended up out of the league in short order after a disastrous stint in the AAF.

If it was a development problem more than an evaluation problem, then we'd see all these supposedly talented young QBs go on to success elsewhere with better programs.  They don't.

When Zach Wilson is out of the league by the age of 28, this will be a fun take of yours to revisit.

[bicketybam]

Then why have no young Jets QBs gone on to success elsewhere outside of Geno Smith, who also failed to move the needle much with the Giants and Chargers until finally becoming about an average or a little above average QB in Seattle 9+ years later?
Darnold went to the perfect place to develop in your eyes - SF, and looked just as clueless and turnover prone as he did as a Jet despite having all those SF weppinz at his disposal and an offensive genius coaching him.  He was supposed to supplant Brock Purdy and become somewhere between a capable starter and a star and he hasn't come even close.  This after failing in his prior spot in Carolina, too.  Dude has had Christian McCaffrey at TWO stops and couldn't capitalize.  
Sanchez failed at FOUR spots post-Jets, including a QB-friendly stint with Philly.  He couldn't win the job over Trevor Siemian in Denver (laughable when you see how bad Siemian is these days).  Hackenberg was picked up by the Raiders, was dumped quickly, then ended up out of the league in short order after a disastrous stint in the AAF.
If it was a development problem more than an evaluation problem, then we'd see all these supposedly talented young QBs go on to success elsewhere with better programs.  They don't.
When Zach Wilson is out of the league by the age of 28, this will be a fun take of yours to revisit.

The book isn't closed yet on Zach Wilson or so I've been told

[Dunnie]

Then why have no young Jets QBs gone on to success elsewhere outside of Geno Smith, who also failed to move the needle much with the Giants and Chargers until finally becoming about an average or a little above average QB in Seattle 9+ years later?
Darnold went to the perfect place to develop in your eyes - SF, and looked just as clueless and turnover prone as he did as a Jet despite having all those SF weppinz at his disposal and an offensive genius coaching him.  He was supposed to supplant Brock Purdy and become somewhere between a capable starter and a star and he hasn't come even close.  This after failing in his prior spot in Carolina, too.  Dude has had Christian McCaffrey at TWO stops and couldn't capitalize.  
Sanchez failed at FOUR spots post-Jets, including a QB-friendly stint with Philly.  He couldn't win the job over Trevor Siemian in Denver (laughable when you see how bad Siemian is these days).  Hackenberg was picked up by the Raiders, was dumped quickly, then ended up out of the league in short order after a disastrous stint in the AAF.
If it was a development problem more than an evaluation problem, then we'd see all these supposedly talented young QBs go on to success elsewhere with better programs.  They don't.
When Zach Wilson is out of the league by the age of 28, this will be a fun take of yours to revisit.

Don't put words in my mouth ... I absolutely agree and think the evaluations and scouting have been terrible as well.... But the sad truth is that we will never really know if the Jets ruined these guys back to Sanchez.

The episode of HK that showed the scout team presenting evaluations opened my eyes a bit. Not every scout is terrible I am sure ... But I didn't leave that viewing with a ton of confidence ... It just felt a bit second tier to me. I have to watch it again... Fully realizing it's HBO entertainment.

Regarding Zach's future ... Who knows ... Maybe it depends where he lands ... He sits for a year in KC ... Might mean something... I expect him out by 28 as well at this point.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Jetsfan80]

9 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Don't put words in my mouth ... I absolutely agree and think the evaluations and scouting have been terrible as well.... But the sad truth is that we will never really know if the Jets ruined these guys back to Sanchez.

The episode of HK that showed the scout team presenting evaluations opened my eyes a bit. Not every scout is terrible I am sure ... But I didn't leave that viewing with a ton of confidence ... It just felt a bit second tier to me. I have to watch it again... Fully realizing it's HBO entertainment.

Regarding Zach's future ... Who knows ... Maybe it depends where he lands ... He sits for a year in KC ... Might mean something... I expect him out by 28 as well at this point.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk


 

Lmao Sanchez entered an awesome situation dude.  Terrific OL, RBs, decent receivers, elite D.  Sanchez ruined the Jets FAR more than the other way around.

The “we’ll never know” argument is BS.  Yes, we know.  All 4 of those QBs sucked, 2 were  tossed out of the league in short order and the other 2 are headed in that direction.  You can’t suck at every subsequent stop in your career then blame the mean old Jets for it.  

[Dunnie]

Lmao Sanchez entered an awesome situation dude.  Terrific OL, RBs, decent receivers, elite D.  Sanchez ruined the Jets FAR more than the other way around.
The “we’ll never know” argument is BS.  Yes, we know.  All 4 of those QBs sucked, 2 were  tossed out of the league in short order and the other 2 are headed in that direction.  You can’t suck at every subsequent stop in your career then blame the mean old Jets for it.  

So your saying the Jets are 0-3 selecting QBs in the top 6 ... FML

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[doitny]

On 2/23/2024 at 3:58 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

When Zach Wilson is out of the league by the age of 28, this will be a fun take of yours to revisit.

28? i think your being generous. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

So your saying the Jets are 0-3 selecting QBs in the top 6 ... FML

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Exactly.  And why is that surprising?  Bad orgs who evaluate talent poorly across the board don’t tend to draft secretly good QBs, lol.  

[Dunnie]

Exactly.  And why is that surprising?  Bad orgs who evaluate talent poorly across the board don’t tend to draft secretly good QBs, lol.  

I think that's a reasonable and certainly a more palatable assessment of the situation at 1JD ... I think issues are far more widespread and pervasive.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

On 2/20/2024 at 8:16 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

I've previously started topics on this.  It's still a prevailing thought on JN and I do not understand it.

For every good/great QB out there who sat for a while there are just as many who played right away (somewhere in the Week 1-4 range of their rookie years):  Peyton, Donovan McNabb, Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Tannehill, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, Stroud just to name a few.  

There’s also plenty of highly drafted QBs who sat for a while and still sucked.  Cade McNown, Marques Tuiasosopo, J.P. Losman, Jason Campbell, JaMarcus Russell, Kevin Kolb, Brian Brohm, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock and Trey Lance are on that list.

I think we can all agree that, while there’s no way to prove it, bust QBs would still have sucked a$$ even if they sat a year and a half.  There's no fixing a slow processing brain.

Peyton Manning agrees with me on this.  The data agrees with me on this.  Sitting is basically meaningless.  And no one outside of the Packers goes a full season without starting a guy.  It just doesn't happen.

These young guys need to arrive in the league mostly ready out of the box.  And it's not exactly an unreasonable ask when nearly every rule change since 2005 has been made to benefit QB's.  

Want to sit a guy 3-4 weeks his rookie year?  Fine.  Just don't expect it to make much difference.  

If you DO plan to sit a QB for a full year, he had better not be a guy for which you're using a 1st or early 2nd round pick.

the pussification of the NFL

[83Kelly2Allen18]

On 2/23/2024 at 3:58 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

Then why have no young Jets QBs gone on to success elsewhere outside of Geno Smith, who also failed to move the needle much with the Giants and Chargers until finally becoming about an average or a little above average QB in Seattle 9+ years later?

Darnold went to the perfect place to develop in your eyes - SF, and looked just as clueless and turnover prone as he did as a Jet despite having all those SF weppinz at his disposal and an offensive genius coaching him.  He was supposed to supplant Brock Purdy and become somewhere between a capable starter and a star and he hasn't come even close.  This after failing in his prior spot in Carolina, too.  Dude has had Christian McCaffrey at TWO stops and couldn't capitalize.  

Sanchez failed at FOUR spots post-Jets, including a QB-friendly stint with Philly.  He couldn't win the job over Trevor Siemian in Denver (laughable when you see how bad Siemian is these days).  Hackenberg was picked up by the Raiders, was dumped quickly, then ended up out of the league in short order after a disastrous stint in the AAF.

If it was a development problem more than an evaluation problem, then we'd see all these supposedly talented young QBs go on to success elsewhere with better programs.  They don't.

When Zach Wilson is out of the league by the age of 28, this will be a fun take of yours to revisit.

Its not mutually exclusive

 

The jets can be bad at both but overall it could still be better to sit the QB for a year depending on said QB 

[83Kelly2Allen18]

Darnold is interesting because he has flashed enough at least in my opinion, and has enough skills to possibly rebound like Testaverde did later on

 

Darnold is still pretty young too. 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, 83Kelly2Allen18 said:

Its not mutually exclusive

 

The jets can be bad at both but overall it could still be better to sit the QB for a year depending on said QB 

If a QB needs to sit for an entire year to be any good, then you don’t draft him # 2 overall.  

[Jetsfan80]

7 hours ago, Dunnie said:

I think that's a reasonable and certainly a more palatable assessment of the situation at 1JD ... I think issues are far more widespread and pervasive.

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, 83Kelly2Allen18 said:

Darnold is interesting because he has flashed enough at least in my opinion, and has enough skills to possibly rebound like Testaverde did later on

 

Darnold is still pretty young too. 

He’ll never stop fumbling away the ball even if he ever corrects some of his other issues.  He led all of FBS in turnovers his final year at USC so no surprise there, either.

If you fail in SF you’ll fail anywhere.  He sucks.  

[83Kelly2Allen18]

42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If a QB needs to sit for an entire year to be any good, then you don’t draft him # 2 overall.  

We have discussed this. We disagree bro

[Jetsfan80]

28 minutes ago, 83Kelly2Allen18 said:

We have discussed this. We disagree bro

The eternal struggle.

[83Kelly2Allen18]

I'm locked in on JJ McCarthy bro. I know you don't want to go QB rd 1. I'm praying Douglas can have the guts to take him

 

The only real player I'll still be really excited about is Bowers at te

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, 83Kelly2Allen18 said:

I'm locked in on JJ McCarthy bro. I know you don't want to go QB rd 1. I'm praying Douglas can have the guts to take him

 

The only real player I'll still be really excited about is Bowers at te

I want nothing to do with Joe Douglas drafting another 1st round QB.  He’s about to be fired…why should he get to draft the QB for the next regime?

[83Kelly2Allen18]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I want nothing to do with Joe Douglas drafting another 1st round QB.  He’s about to be fired…why should he get to draft the QB for the next regime?

That is a solid point. If he messed up so bad can we really trust his judgement on QBs. 

 

I get what you're saying 

[FootballLove]

Patty Mahomes sat a year.

Maybe some of these dudes who didn't sit but played well may have been even gooder if they sat a bit and learned the NFL version of the game? We all expect a 2nd yr QB to be better than their rookie year, so there's certainly truth to learning the NFL. But what's better? Learning on the fly, or learning on the bench.

To me, learning on the fly is always better in the end. But the system and the locker-room makes a big difference. Johhny Manzel was saying his rookie year in Cleavland was horrible...no support from the Vet QB who was supposed to be guiding him. In the QB Room, Manzel was ridiculed and laughed at for asking questions. 

[83Kelly2Allen18]

35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I want nothing to do with Joe Douglas drafting another 1st round QB.  He’s about to be fired…why should he get to draft the QB for the next regime?

Do you think Bowers will be there? Him and Rodgers would be awesome. 

[NYJCAP2]

On 2/20/2024 at 2:33 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

QB is going to be an enormously stressful position no matter what you do.  Some guys can handle it.  Some can't.  You're never going to be able to simulate the speed of the NFL pass rush by sitting.  Except maybe via new VR tech.  

Speed adjustment is going to be evident as soon as that QB steps on an NFL practice field.

The problem with a young QB is asking them to multi task while learning and adjusting on the fly. It is extremely hard to do at the highest level of the sport and can be detrimental.

If it’s my team, there is zero risk from sitting them a half year or an entire year.