Trade Reddick Tonight

[jgb]

32 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

Douglas doesn't have to do a thing and Reddick will eventually show up and play before he ends up losing the season. And if he holds out for the year, we will be back here next year. No way Douglas lets Reddick dictate what he wants. 

Douglas doesn’t look great here. He’s a guy who got caught with his schwanse in a bee hive and is trying to figure out how to pull it out with a minimum of bee stings.

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

Just now, jgb said:

Douglas doesn’t look great here. He’s a guy who got caught with his schwanse in a bee hive and is trying to figure out how to pull it out with a minimum of bee stings.

He got it put into his contract that he didn’t have to win for five years, then to start off year six he trades for a guy who won’t play and Woody is just supposed to buy him out of it. This is Kendall Roy sh*t.

[bicketybam]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Douglas doesn’t look great here. He’s a guy who got caught with his schwanse in a bee hive and is trying to figure out how to pull it out with a minimum of bee stings.

I still see a worst case scenario of Douglas trading a 3rd round draft pick 3 drafts from the time of the trade for 10 games of Hasaan Reddick at a bargain price. It may not look great but I don't see it as looking bad. 

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

I still see a worst case scenario of Douglas trading a 3rd round draft pick 3 drafts from the time of the trade for 10 games of Hasaan Reddick at a bargain price. It may not look great but I don't see it as looking bad. 

If that’s your worst case, reasonable minds can certainly disagree whether that isn’t embarrassing for Joe. But — what if your worst case scenario proves to be overly-optimistic?

[bicketybam]

Just now, jgb said:

If that’s your worst case, reasonable minds can certainly disagree whether that isn’t embarrassing for Joe. But — what if your worst case scenario proves to be overly-optimistic?

He has to report with 10 games left to get credit for the year. If you want to tell me he will report with 5 games left and not get credit for the year, then ok. That's worse but man that would be nuts for Reddick.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

He has to report with 10 games left to get credit for the year. If you want to tell me he will report with 5 games left and not get credit for the year, then ok. That's worse but man that would be nuts for Reddick.

I do not believe any of those scenarios occur. I still think JD caves. He’s fighting for his job. And will give greater concessions to Reddick than he would have had to if he did the smart thing and negotiated a short term bandaid extension as a condition of the trade.

[bicketybam]

Just now, jgb said:

I do not believe any of those scenarios occur. I still think JD caves. He’s fighting for his job. And will give greater concessions to Reddick than he would have had to if he did the smart thing and negotiated a short term bandaid extension as a condition of the trade.

I guess time will tell. How much do you think Douglas will end up giving him for this year?

[Mr. Rogers]

6 hours ago, slats said:

Reddick has not behaved logically with this holdout, which is why I find it hard to predict what he’ll do next. If I’m JD, I offer some inexpensive, face-saving gesture to get him into camp, and that’s about it. Holding out for the whole year, imho, would be amazingly stupid for Reddick. He’d earn nothing this year and owe a ton in fines. He’ll never get that $14.2M back, and he’ll reduce his own value on the open market if/when he finally gets there. 
 
If he chooses that stupidity, I don’t believe his trade value will be any lower next March than it might be now. In fact, I’d argue that it would be higher as there would now be a number of teams with the cap room and draft capital available to make a deal, unlike this time of year. So again, from my perspective, absolutely no downside to waiting him out. 
 
He sits out opening day, he loses about $840K. Every game he misses after that is another $840K. Despite the irrationality from his camp thus far, I do think he’ll report before he loses too much. 

Interesting to argue that he lowers his contract value by holding out, yet not his trade value? Surely if teams had the same opinion of him next off season as they do now trade-value-wise, they'd be willing to offer similar money as well... Unless you think the Jets overpaid to begin with, which I hope we agree they really didn't. 

Truthfully I'd lean more toward the value holding both ways. Yes, Reddick would be a year older and possibly out of shape, but that's what physicals are for. Now, I would agree there'll be more interest next year at at a time when teams have open cap and resources again, but I think at team that really wants him could make it work now. We see back-loaded contracts (see: Bryce Huff) all the time. The bigger issue may just be that the Jets haven't afforded other teams negotiating time before week 1, that we know of.

I do doubt a team will give the Jets equal value to what they paid before week 1, so we're in agreement that the jets should sit on him. My original point was just that if we could recoup full value before week 1, I'd (kinda) rather do that than deal with trading Reddick down the road... If nothing else, it would give JD peace of mind on utilizing that open cap space elsewhere. I wouldn't be upset if they sat on Reddick anyway to see if any nice mid season offers come in. Or just let him rot until next year. 

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

I guess time will tell. How much do you think Douglas will end up giving him for this year?

Well zoom out and think about this. If the Jets suffer a D-line injury, does that strengthen or weaken Reddick’s position? If I’m JD, working on a short contract with my ass on the line, I do not risk the nightmare scenario where he has to beg Reddick back. I bite the bullet and give him a 1 year extension, with some portion guaranteed, right before week 1. Which is what I both think and hope he does. Pro negotiators don’t let emotions play into it.

Telling Reddick to “pound sand” is easy to type and feels good to say, but JD knows he won’t get another do-over like last year. It’s all-in time.

JD’s leverage is at maximum right now — it can only go down with injuries or if the Jets are looking like true contenders. Now is the time to get it done.

[bicketybam]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Well zoom out and think about this. If the Jets suffer a D-line injury, does that strengthen or weaken Reddick’s position? If I’m JD, working on a short contract with my ass on the line, I do not risk the nightmare scenario where he has to beg Reddick back. I bite the bullet and give him a 1 year extension, with some portion guaranteed, right before week 1. Which is what I both think and hope he does. Pro negotiators don’t let emotion play into it.

From what I've seen, the DL looks pretty deep. And I do believe he offered him a short extension, which he turned down.

 

[JetsFanatic]

I don’t trade him, he will report at some point. 

[Doggin94it]

1 minute ago, bicketybam said:

He has to report with 10 games left to get credit for the year. If you want to tell me he will report with 5 games left and not get credit for the year, then ok. That's worse but man that would be nuts for Reddick.

Especially since this isn't the Lev Bell situation, where the tag was keeping him from signing a long-term deal with another team and they had loaded him with carries the prior year, so his theory was that avoiding another year of wear and tear would let him make up the money in his next contract, and not showing up for the year would let him go hit the market the next offseason.

For Reddick, not showing up at all means giving up 14M and also not being able to hit the market next offseason. It's not going to happen

[Doggin94it]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

Well zoom out and think about this. If the Jets suffer a D-line injury, does that strengthen or weaken Reddick’s position? If I’m JD, working on a short contract with my ass on the line, I do not risk the nightmare scenario where he has to beg Reddick back. I bite the bullet and give him a 1 year extension, with some portion guaranteed, right before week 1. Which is what I both think and hope he does. Pro negotiators don’t let emotions play into it.

Telling Reddick to “pound sand” is easy to type and feels good to say, but JD knows he won’t get another do-over like last year. It’s all-in time.

JD’s leverage is at maximum right now — it can only go down with injuries or if the Jets are looking like true contenders. Now is the time to get it done.

Hard disagree. JD's leverage goes up with every week Reddick is out, because Week 6 is a hard deadline for Reddick to show up

[bicketybam]

Just now, Doggin94it said:

Hard disagree. JD's leverage goes up with every week Reddick is out, because Week 6 is a hard deadline for Reddick to show up

What happens if JJ stubs his toe??

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

From what I've seen, the DL looks pretty deep. And I do believe he offered him a short extension, which he turned down.

 

Well I don’t know about that. But JD’s leverage is at max right now. An injury or Jets looking like Super Bowl contenders only strengthens Reddick’s hand. The time for JD to act is now. I only wish he hadn’t made the prideful demand that Reddick be personally present to even negotiate. That’s adding an ego condition. It’s like when you tell your wife you won’t take her to dinner until she apologies with a curtesy. Emotionally-satisfying, but ultimately, non-value-adding. Rookie negotiation blunder.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Hard disagree. JD's leverage goes up with every week Reddick is out, because Week 6 is a hard deadline for Reddick to show up

Then you disagree with reality. You are forgetting the crucial factor — the Jets are without Reddick’s services during that time and JD’s fate depends on Ws and Ls.

[Jetsplayer21]

18 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I mean, the Jets clearly have enough juice at EDGE to the point where they might just prefer to have the $14 mil in cap and be rid of the Reddick headache. Trade him to Detroit for Hendon Hooker or something. Use the cap savings to bring in another receiver. 

When raiders 💩 the bed as usual, they will be begging teams to take Adams. But that will be October before they raise their annual white flag.. If Reddick does not report by then, can definitely see them making room for Adams, or another trade target.

[bicketybam]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Then you disagree with reality. You are forgetting the crucial factor — the Jets are without Reddick’s services during that time and JD’s fate depends on Ws and Ls.

If the Jets are winning games without Reddick, what do they gain by caving in to Reddick's demands? A win is a win.

We clearly see it differently. As I said previously, time will tell. 

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

What happens if JJ stubs his toe??

JD will have to crawl over broken glass to get Reddick in the building. It’s a bad risk for JD to take.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, bicketybam said:

If the Jets are winning games without Reddick, what do they gain by caving in to Reddick's demands? A win is a win.

We clearly see it differently. As I said previously, time will tell. 

If if if. JD basically needs playoffs or he’s done here. Do you bet putting food on your kids’ tables on “ifs?”

[Doggin94it]

18 minutes ago, jgb said:

Then you disagree with reality. You are forgetting the crucial factor — the Jets are without Reddick’s services during that time and JD’s fate depends on Ws and Ls.

We'll see. But also, I think you and I would have a lot of fun sitting across the table from each other (sincerely)

[Doggin94it]

17 minutes ago, jgb said:

If if if. JD basically needs playoffs or he’s done here. Do you bet putting food on your kids’ tables on “ifs?”

Douglas earned more than 18M over his contract. I think his kids will be fine. And he's also sure to get another NFL job if the Jets don't want to extend him (maybe not as a GM, but more likely than not as a GM). His BATNA is way way way better than Reddick's

[bicketybam]

27 minutes ago, jgb said:

If if if. JD basically needs playoffs or he’s done here. Do you bet putting food on your kids’ tables on “ifs?”

Poor JD. He better get this done!

 

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

It’s possible that another team told Reddick’s people that they’d give Reddick his new deal but as a concession they wouldn’t meet the Eagles price for the trade. Possible Douglas was the highest bidder in draft compensation and the Eagles simply took that deal. 

True.  Under that scenario is there another team that is now going to match what the Jets paid?  If so, why?

[jgb]

16 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

Poor JD. He better get this done!

 

Precisely! Your argument isn’t that it’s a bad move by JD not to get a deal done, only that he won’t starve if he gets fired.

I pass the witness, Your Honor.

[mfmartin]

Even if he shows up, he will not be in shape. He will get injured and out for the season. Trade him tonight and live with the consequences.

I can’t


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[jgb]

20 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

True.  Under that scenario is there another team that is now going to match what the Jets paid?  If so, why?

JD is stuck: make a deal now, wait him out (with an outrageous risk that an injury bends the Jets over a barrel), or sell for garage sale prices.

His only available upside is that Jets win (or lose by so much) that Reddick is irrelevant, then wait for him to (probably) saunter in by week 10, unneeded.

Lot of downside exposure for very minimal upside. 

[bicketybam]

8 minutes ago, jgb said:

Precisely! Your argument isn’t that it’s a bad move by JD not to get a deal done, only that he won’t starve if he gets fired.

I pass the witness, Your Honor.

[jgb]

Just now, bicketybam said:

No take backs. You stepped into the punji pit set for you. To the rear for medical treatment.

[bicketybam]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

No take backs. You stepped into the punji pit set for you. To the rear for medical treatment.

How's the weather in the reality that you live in? Nice? Sunny?

[jgb]

42 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Douglas earned more than 18M over his contract. I think his kids will be fine. And he's also sure to get another NFL job if the Jets don't want to extend him (maybe not as a GM, but more likely than not as a GM). His BATNA is way way way better than Reddick's

So again, he should not make a deal not because it’s the smart thing to do but because he’s rich. With defenders like you, he doesn’t need enemies.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, bicketybam said:

How's the weather in the reality that you live in? Nice? Sunny?

Ah, in reality it’s not always sunny. PM me and I’ll give you more factoids about the real world, Neo.

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, bicketybam said:

I still see a worst case scenario of Douglas trading a 3rd round draft pick 3 drafts from the time of the trade for 10 games of Hasaan Reddick at a bargain price. It may not look great but I don't see it as looking bad. 

Good to see some here get it. 

[Jet Nut]

4 hours ago, JKlecko said:

I don't remember specifics. I just know that over the years, quite a few players who held out, were either not in shape or not in football shape, and when they started getting hit, they wound up getting injured.  I thinks some wound up tearing knee ligaments, and pulled/torn muscles. 

It's not just about injuries either, as it can affect their level of play.  Those who rely on speed, can get really sore for those first few weeks, and it can affect their speed until their body gets acclimated to the hitting, and their play suffers.

Again, I’m sure players who’ve held out suffered injured.  So do many who went through camp.  Question is, do those who don’t go through a training camp have a higher chance of injury.  I’m guessing there’s no negligible difference.  And there’s no basis for thinking that not getting hit in camp would lead to injuries the first time an opponent hits you in a real game.  
Regardless, camps gone, if he’s playing for anyone it will be without the benefit of camp

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Good to see some here get it. 

If you believe that’s the worst case scenario, sure.

The actual, real life worst case scenario is the Jets suffer 1 or more key injuries on the D-line and stack up a couple losses and then are in a desperate need of Reddick’s services.