Vegas Has the Script

[Barry McCockinner]

[jgb]

All Vegas is is a giant crowd sourcing machine. They want money to flow equally to both outcomes. Professional handicappers set the initial line (not based on what they think will happen but how they think the public will bet) and then it moves based on the money flow. It’s amazing how this still needs to be explained to serious sports fans who spend tons of time on a message board.

 

[RoadFan]

Ridiculous.  Jets favorite over Houston?

[PS17]

3 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Ridiculous.  Jets favorite over Houston?

I make good money every season betting against the Jets. The 4-2 Steelers getting points at home against this mediocre team was laughable. 

[jgb]

51 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Ridiculous.  Jets favorite over Houston?

Stroud looking iffy to play 

edit: my bad was confusing stroud with Daniels 

[jgb]

48 minutes ago, PS17 said:

I make good money every season betting against the Jets. The 4-2 Steelers getting points against this mediocre team at home was laughable. 

Correct. I always dare the Jets to buy the win from me and they almost never do.

 

 

[Bobby816]

For being at home that's roughly 3 points right there. So it's saying we're even roster wise.

But this line will change 100%. Even if we win this weekend and HOU loses... you can guarantee this line will switch to HOU be favored.

 

Let's also not forget that we did beat HOU with Stroud last year. Yes he's a year older and we aren't as good record wise.... but we did beat them last year. And it was the worst game of his career.

 

And yes Stroud is playing this week. So him not playing next week is far fetched unless something unfortunate happens for him this week.

 

Want to make money? Put money on HOU now.

[PS17]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

Correct. I always dare the Jets to buy the win from me and they almost never do.

edit: my bad was confusing stroud with Daniels 

It’s also a hedge. Thrilled to have my bet lose and the Jets win but that only happens 20-25% of the time. The Jets play like the Jets and at least I get some money out of it. 

[Barry McCockinner]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Stroud looking iffy to play 

ah - I missed that detail.

[Bobby816]

1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

ah - I missed that detail.

He's playing this week. So unless something happens this weekend.... he's playing vs us.

[slimjasi]

19 minutes ago, jgb said:

Correct. I always dare the Jets to buy the win from me and they almost never do.

edit: my bad was confusing stroud with Daniels 

 

13 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

ah - I missed that detail.

I was gonna say - what did I miss!?!?!

A couple of notes on the jets and Vegas:

 

1) the sharps have been on the Jets the last 3 weeks and lost all 3 weeks. The jets have underachieved in the eyes of most. 

2) the jets have lost 2 games at home by a combined 4 points to 2 winning teams and lost a 3rd game in London by 6 points to a 5-2 team. Expecting them to compete against Houston at home is not far fetched at all, especially on a short week. 

3) there are two types of bad teams - teams that get blown out and teams that break hearts. The Jets are the latter. On the other hand, close games are somewhat random and tend to even out over time. Maybe the jets catch a little luck at some point soon? 
 

all things being equal, I expect another close loss, but a win would not totally shock me. 

[jgb]

17 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

ah - I missed that detail.

I was confused, my bad. I edited that post 

[jgb]

20 minutes ago, PS17 said:

It’s also a hedge. Thrilled to have my bet lose and the Jets win but that only happens 20-25% of the time. The Jets play like the Jets and at least I get some money out of it. 

Yes, I was describing an emotional hedge.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Bet the ranch on the Jets Texans money line

[TuscanyTile2]

40 minutes ago, PS17 said:

It’s also a hedge. Thrilled to have my bet lose and the Jets win but that only happens 20-25% of the time. The Jets play like the Jets and at least I get some money out of it. 

If you can regularly make money betting against the Jets that would be a terrific reason to be a Jet fan.

[Joey Gilbert]

59 minutes ago, jgb said:

All Vegas is is a giant crowd sourcing machine. They want money to flow equally to both outcomes. Professional handicappers set the initial line (not based on what they think will happen but how they think the public will bet) and then it moves based on the money flow. It’s amazing how this still needs to be explained to serious sports fans who spend tons of time on a message board.

 

While I personally agree with you and this is what has been pounded into my head for decades

I saw something the other night on a betting show that basically said this theory was fed to us and is not true.

but who knows. It’s all bs other than… always bet against the Jets and your results will be good in the long run! lol 

[rangerous]

idk.  i know nothing about sports betting.  i think it's just wrong to be a fan of a team and bet against them.  but whatever.  i also don't like the proliferation of gambling sites, especially those that are being touted by these so called sports experts on espn and elsewhere.  just when are the players themselves going to get involved? (as if they haven't already done so.).

[Beerfish]

I mean the jets destroyed stroud last year so maybe that plays into it.   10/23 for 93 yards sacked 4 times and a QBR of 8.4

Zach wilson was 27-36 310 yards and 2 tds

[Jack Straw]

4 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I mean the jets destroyed stroud last year so maybe that plays into it.   10/23 for 93 yards sacked 4 times and a QBR of 8.4

Zach wilson was 27-36 310 yards and 2 tds

Yes but that was with defensive mastermind robert saleh at the helm

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Joey Gilbert said:

While I personally agree with you and this is what has been pounded into my head for decades

I saw something the other night on a betting show that basically said this theory was fed to us and is not true.

but who knows. It’s all bs other than… always bet against the Jets and your results will be good in the long run! lol 

Vegas doesn’t gamble. Their customers do. I don’t know what show you heard but don’t throw away an entire lifetime of logic based on it.

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

All Vegas is is a giant crowd sourcing machine. They want money to flow equally to both outcomes. Professional handicappers set the initial line (not based on what they think will happen but how they think the public will bet) and then it moves based on the money flow. It’s amazing how this still needs to be explained to serious sports fans who spend tons of time on a message board.

 

Serious and spends lots of time on a message board are mutually exclusive.

[gastineau_intestinal_tract]

that's because the nfl is still a 9-7 - 7-9 league.  in the course of a season every team is likely going to win or lose 1/2 games that they weren't suppose to.   couple the final record with a hard schedule, close games, TO, a bad call or just a poor QB + coaching and you have league where a 6 win team is equally as good as a 10 win team

 

i don't ever like to bet against streaks.  (winning or losing)  teams usually become "who they are" trough winning or losing regardless of perceived or paper value.

 

right now imo  the jets still have a perceived higher value than they should be.