The C*ckpit | Why Clemens needs to start

[rick34125]

Hey Joe, nice QB analysis from last year. You don't get this from just looking at the stats. If Clemens had a better supporting cast around him last year we may not be in the middle of another QB competition this year.

The C*ckpit -

http://mvn.com/nfl-jets

Why Kellen Clemens Needs to Start at Quarterback

Posted By Joe Caporoso On June 12, 2008 @ 12:28 pm

The general consensus is that after OTA’s and mini-camp the quarterback competition was relatively even. Both guys pretty much looked the way we expected them to look, which breaks down like this:

Kellen Clemens - Great arm, has better physical tools than Pennington, including more mobility. However, he holds the ball too long and can be inconsistent with his accuracy from time to time.

Chad Pennington - Very accurate, is a highly experienced NFL starter. However, he has a weak arm and occasionally struggles in the intermediate to deep passing game.

I expect the quarterback competition to remain tight throughout most of training camp and the pre-season with Clemens eventually getting the nod. He outplayed Pennington last pre-season and technically should be better this year with more experience under his belt. In the end, this will turn out to be the right decision for both the short and long term.

Clemens winning is better for the long term for obvious reasons, however he is also the better option for 2008. Why? The Jets are going to be a ball control team that relies on their defense and running game to keep them competitive. This style of football lends itself to close games, which get decided in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Looking back on 2007, Pennington was a nightmare when the game was on the line, while Clemens played his best football. The facts don’t lie:

Pennington:

Week 4 vs. Buffalo - With the score 17-14 late in the fourth quarter, Pennington had drove the Jets into field goal position, however with only 6 seconds left on the clock he was intercepted by Terrence McGee at Buffalo’s 31, denying the Jets a chance to tie.

Week 5 vs. Giants - The Jets were trailing 28-24 with 3 minutes remaining when Pennington threw his third interception of the game, which was returned for a touchdown by Aaron Ross.

Week 6 vs. Eagles - The Jets were trailing 16-9 with 4 chances to score from inside their 5 yard line. However, Pennington got jammed on a quarterback sneak and threw an incompletion of fourth down to Lavernues Coles.

Week 7 vs. Bengals - The Jets were trailing 31-23 with a little over 6 minutes left when Pennington was intercepted by Jonathan Joseph who returned it for a touchdown, and sent the Jets to yet another loss.

Week 16 vs. Titans - The Jets were trailing 10-6 in the final minutes, Pennington drove them inside the 50 yard line but watch the drive stall after he threw 2 straight dump-offs to Leon Washington and then was sacked on 4th down.

Clemens:

Week 2 vs. Baltimore - With the Jets trailing 20-3 in the 4th quarter, Clemens leads the Jets to 10 straight points while running the hurry up offense. He then leads them inside the 10 yard line with a chance to tie but is victimized by 2 Justin McCariens drops, the second of which ends with an interception.

Week 9 vs. Washington - With the Jets down 20-17 in the final minutes of the 4th quarter, Clemens drove them the length of the field to tie the score and send the game into overtime. He then drove them into borderline field goal range but saw the drive end on a Jerricho Cotchery drop.

Week 11 vs. Pittsburgh - The Jets were trailing 16-13 late in the fourth quarter, when Clemens drove them the length of the field to tie the score. He would have won the game in regulation but had Brad Smith drop a wide open touchdown pass, however the Jets went on to win the game in OT.

Week 14 vs. Cleveland - With the Jets trailing 17-6 with a little over three minutes to play, Clemens drove the offense down the field and ran in a touchdown. After a recovered onside kick, he led the offense to cut the score to 17-15. Then after the Jets defense allowed a touchdown, he led them back down the field to cut the score to 24-18, before Cleveland finally recovered an onside kick to end the game.

Week 17 vs. Kansas City - Clemens led the Jets to the game winning field goal in overtime, for a 13-10 victory.

The bottom line is that Pennington can’t lead this team back in the fourth quarter anymore. Defenses allow him to dump the ball underneath and then eventually have one of their cornerbacks jump one of his 6 yard out routes and run it back for a touchdown.

Clemens can fit the ball into tight spots down the field because of his arm strength and can also take off running to create yards, as he did late in the Washington and Pittsburgh games.

The Jets are going to be anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6 this year, depending on whether or not they can pull out close games. If they want any chance to pull out a few late victories, they are going to need Kellen Clemens at quarterback.

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[124]

Week 16 vs. Titans - The Jets were trailing 10-6 in the final minutes, Pennington drove them inside the 50 yard line but watch the drive stall after he threw 2 straight dump-offs to Leon Washington and then was sacked on 4th down

.

Typical Pennington at the end of the game.

DUMPOFFS DO NOT LEAD TO TOUCHDOWNS CHADWICK!

[TNJet]

.

Typical Pennington at the end of the game.

DUMPOFFS DO NOT LEAD TO TOUCHDOWNS CHADWICK!

yep,had Clemens started we would have beaten them badly actually. We had 4 chances for Chad to bring us back but he couldnt. Couldve been 24-10 jets with Kellen easily.

[Jetlag]

Can we just stop the bullsh*t already? Not naming Clemens the starter already is going to kill this team. Let the kid know he is the starter so he can build some chemistry up with the first unit.

The competition strategy is fine for every other position, not QB. Once again we're going to get stuck with sh*tty quarterback play regardless of who is back there. This is getting completely asinine.

[Sperm Edwards]

Can we just stop the bullsh*t already? Not naming Clemens the starter already is going to kill this team. Let the kid know he is the starter so he can build some chemistry up with the first unit.

The competition strategy is fine for every other position, not QB. Once again we're going to get stuck with sh*tty quarterback play regardless of who is back there. This is getting completely asinine.

Tell that to the players who might think Pennington should be the QB because they think he's better. All they will see it is benching a "proven" (in their eyes) QB because they'd like to dump his salary by next year.

I don't want Pennington to be the QB, but really - Clemens has to win the job to get the job. What would be asinine is handing the most important job outright to a kid who may not yet have the team behind him, after a mostly-crappy half year in '07.

You can do that maybe if it's obvious the team is full of rookies and temporary talent. But other than the uncertainty at QB, this roster looks very win-now. So that one position is not a decision that you make early just for the sake of making it early.

Better to have the two flip-flop practice reps in June-July than in October-November. Which would be made worse with veterans in Pennington's "corner" grumbling among each other that Clemens never won the job & that it was just simply handed to him because this regime drafted him and Chad's cap # is so much higher. I think Mangini did a good job of putting that fire out in advance by sticking with Chad despite blowing multiple games with his wimpy arm. But you never know when that's going to resurface.

[drago]

Tell that to the players who might think Pennington should be the QB because they think he's better. All they will see it is benching a "proven" (in their eyes) QB because they'd like to dump his salary by next year.

I don't want Pennington to be the QB, but really - Clemens has to win the job to get the job. What would be asinine is handing the most important job outright to a kid who may not yet have the team behind him, after a mostly-crappy half year in '07.

You can do that maybe if it's obvious the team is full of rookies and temporary talent. But other than the uncertainty at QB, this roster looks very win-now. So that one position is not a decision that you make early just for the sake of making it early.

Better to have the two flip-flop practice reps in June-July than in October-November. Which would be made worse with veterans in Pennington's "corner" grumbling among each other that Clemens never won the job & that it was just simply handed to him because this regime drafted him and Chad's cap # is so much higher. I think Mangini did a good job of putting that fire out in advance by sticking with Chad despite blowing multiple games with his wimpy arm. But you never know when that's going to resurface.

No offense Sperm but that is kind of a load of crap. You are assuming that the players on the Jets haven't already given up on Chad. We all watch the games, yet the players are apart of the games. Are you trying to tell me that they have forgotten all those close games Chad has given away in the 4th quarter? Chad and Coles may be good friends but even Coles (maybe chad's #1 supporter) has to see that Penny's career is near the end. He knows what Chad can and cannot do. It's as though we are assuming the players go through the games with their eyes shut and don't actually think for themselves.

Can you imagine what guys like Faneca, Cotchery or Woody are thinking? All of whom have played with legit NFL quaterbacks (cotch in college with rivers) and know what it is like to see that you are in a game even though you are down by 4 with a few minutes left. These guys have to know that Chad is incapable of pulling off any type of comeback.

The players know, the fans know, i even think the coaches know that Chad cannot do it anymore. I love the guy as a person and thought he was going to have a great 07 campaign but it did not work out that way.

This team is in win now mode and unfortunately the only QB on the roster that can win now is Kellen.

[shawn306]

This is exactly the reason why Mangini should have named either Clemens or Pennington the #1 QB going into camp.

QB controversies split teams. It doesn't matter if it is Chad or Clemens, Todd or Robinson, Montana vs Young. When you have this kind of situation players are going to choose sides and that can fracture a team real quick.

Mangini is leaving himself open to a huge second guess by having this QB competition because the New York media is going to be all over it and the first time that someone even hints at who they think it should be it WILL be all over the backpage of the News or Post.

[#27TheDominator]

If we have ****ty quarterback play on the Jets this year it won't be because Mangini failed to name a starter in June. It will be for one simple reason: We have ****ty quarterbacks.

[#27TheDominator]

This is exactly the reason why Mangini should have named either Clemens or Pennington the #1 QB going into camp.

QB controversies split teams. It doesn't matter if it is Chad or Clemens, Todd or Robinson, Montana vs Young. When you have this kind of situation players are going to choose sides and that can fracture a team real quick.

Mangini is leaving himself open to a huge second guess by having this QB competition because the New York media is going to be all over it and the first time that someone even hints at who they think it should be it WILL be all over the backpage of the News or Post.

So, you are saying that if Mangini picks a QB now, no matter who it is or how they perform, the News and Post will consider the Jets QB situation a dead issue?

[drago]

So, you are saying that if Mangini picks a QB now, no matter who it is or how they perform, the News and Post will consider the Jets QB situation a dead issue?

It's a dead issue if Penny gets cut or traded for scraps and we replace him with a different vet back up. I wish we had pursued Josh McCown this offseason, he's no stud, but he can win games and/or be a good backup.

[#27TheDominator]

It's a dead issue if Penny gets cut or traded for scraps and we replace him with a different vet back up. I wish we had pursued Josh McCown this offseason, he's no stud, but he can win games and/or be a good backup.

So, you are in favor of reducing the talent level in favor of team unity?

[shawn306]

So, you are saying that if Mangini picks a QB now, no matter who it is or how they perform, the News and Post will consider the Jets QB situation a dead issue?

The Post or News will never consider it a dead issue until one of them are gone.

If the Jets start the year 0-3 (very possible) then the papers will be screaming that they should have went with the other guy.

Mangini though having this "open competition" is just a distraction that this team just does not need come TC.

This is a team that really needs as little distraction as possible. the players are going to get very tired of hearing the same "Which QB had a better day" or "Who do you think is going to be the QB" asked to them 12 different ways and I think it is just a recipe for disaster.

I don't care who the QB is anymore. Neither guy showed me jack last season but I'm a fan so I don't see the that a CS would see in film. All I see are int's or badly thrown passes so what do I or anyone else know. Mangini and the CS though should have by now gathered enough info to at least make a decision going into TC of who "should" be the starter. Doesn't have to be the same guy when TC breaks, but leaving it open to speculation to me is just asking for trouble for the outside.

[drago]

So, you are in favor of reducing the talent level in favor of team unity?

wait? are you implying that Chad is increasing the teams talent level?

Even if that were the case, he's not good enough to even care about losing. In this case, i am more than willing to 'reduce' the talent level and appoint a starter. Chad simply cannot throw anymore. Higher him as a coach if you want but he is no quaterback.

[#27TheDominator]

The Post or News will never consider it a dead issue until one of them are gone.

If the Jets start the year 0-3 (very possible) then the papers will be screaming that they should have went with the other guy.

Mangini though having this "open competition" is just a distraction that this team just does not need come TC.

This is a team that really needs as little distraction as possible. the players are going to get very tired of hearing the same "Which QB had a better day" or "Who do you think is going to be the QB" asked to them 12 different ways and I think it is just a recipe for disaster.

I don't care who the QB is anymore. Neither guy showed me jack last season but I'm a fan so I don't see the that a CS would see in film. All I see are int's or badly thrown passes so what do I or anyone else know. Mangini and the CS though should have by now gathered enough info to at least make a decision going into TC of who "should" be the starter. Doesn't have to be the same guy when TC breaks, but leaving it open to speculation to me is just asking for trouble for the outside.

It makes no difference who the #2 is. If the Jets do not get better play out of the starter, the press will be all over it. Film and last season don't mean ****. If Pennington played as well in '07 as he did in '06 and Clemens played that badly I think Pennington is the starter. There wasn't much reason Pennington played worse in '07 than '06, but he did. Film study got them thinking Adrien Clarke was a viable LG.

The press will rant and rave no matter what. If one of them plays well it's a dead issue. If not then the issue is "why didn't they get a better QB?" If the team and coaches are going to roll over for the NY press we are ****ed off the bat. There is an advantage to have a team full of choirboy, former team captain, Rhodes scholars, they should be above folding to the whims of the NY Post.

wait? are you implying that Chad is increasing the teams talent level?

Even if that were the case, he's not good enough to even care about losing. In this case, i am more than willing to 'reduce' the talent level and appoint a starter. Chad simply cannot throw anymore. Higher him as a coach if you want but he is no quaterback.

If Josh McCown is an improvement over Chad then we will be in the same situation with a different cast of characters. So that doesn't solve anything other than letting you annoint Clemens starter. I don't know about you, but from what I've seen of Clemens he doesn't deserve ****. He has to earn it. Let him show something on the field and I'll make him starter, until then, IMO, nobody has the right to beef that there is a QB competition.

[scionce]

a few of you mentioned that the team is built to win now. well, usually win-now means, "we're playing the proven vets." and without marked improvement from clemens, pennington will most likely win the QB comp. the hopefully improved O-line should make the ground game more potent and, having that behind him, pennington can be beastly, relatively speaking. i actually believe his sleight-of-hand, play action is better than peyton's, but that's a different argument.

while i do agree clemens should be the starter - if only to really gauge his ability by seeing what he can do behind this revamped line and an expectedly better running game - i also think outright naming him the starter going in to TC isn't the wisest of decisions. and it's even more foolish to name him the starter, but still leave it "open." the CS would look ridiculous telling everyone, "this guy is our guy." then at the end of camp they turn around and say, "you know what we change our minds, this is our guy." actions such as these show short-sightedness and poor decision making. but i do agree with most of you, he most certainly has to earn it.

[Flashlite80]

This comes down to what kind of offense you want to watch. Chad will manage an efficient offense that runs many 15 play drives that end in a field goal. The average offensive output will be 10 -14 points. If you think we can win like the bear or ravens, with special teams and defense, then Chad's your guy. If you think we need 20 points a game to have a chance at 9 wins, then you know Chad can't get you there. The Chad led Jet offense, in each of his last two years playing, has been woefully short of that. The obvious inability to get down the field at the end of the game in two minutes is an ironclad argument. I like Chad but we lost every one of his starts that we had a chance to win in the final minutes???

The difference between 9-7 and 6-10 is usually your record in the 7 or so games decided by 5 or less points. If Chad was 0-5 or 0-6 in those games, last year, it should tell you something. I am a season ticket holder. I was at several of those games bewildered at watching us takes 45 seconds, in a two minute drill, to get a first down. Watching 3 and 5 yard dump-offs to guys who were double covered in the middle of the field. Forget the stats. Did you watch the games. Do you really believe a 32 year old QB, two years removed from surgery, will get better?????

Finally, let's assume the best. If the playoffs are on the line against a team with a top defense that can shut down the run, who do you think gives us our only chance to win????

That's why!!! So we have a chance.

[Irish Jet]

wait? are you implying that Chad is increasing the teams talent level?

Are you seriously trying to imply that Brett Ratliff and Erik Ainge would be better backups than Pennington?

[TNJet]

Are you seriously trying to imply that Brett Ratliff and Erik Ainge would be better backups than Pennington?

physically yes,but not mentally.

[Irish Jet]

physically yes,but not mentally.

Overall the answer is no. I will be very worried if Ainge and Ratliff are the backups behind Clemens. Very worried.

[Irish Jet]

physically yes,but not mentally.

Overall, they are not, simply put.

I would be incredibly worried of we entered the season with 3 unproven QB's to make up the depth chart.

[TNJet]

Overall, they are not, simply put.

I would be incredibly worried of we entered the season with 3 unproven QB's to make up the depth chart.

simply put,Chad is a walking wound that hurts himself wiping his own @ss...therefore should be a 3rd stringer at best.

[drago]

Are you seriously trying to imply that Brett Ratliff and Erik Ainge would be better backups than Pennington?

Not at all. That doesn't excuse the Jets from allowing Chad on their roster as a viable number 1 or number 2. There were a few QB's available this past offseason, i have already mentioned Josh McCown. If they really wanted they could have gone after the guy that beat him out in Detriot in Kitna, whom the lions don't seem too keen on since getting rid of Martz.

There were some QB's available, i can't think of any that could be worse than Chad at this point.

[#27TheDominator]

Not at all. That doesn't excuse the Jets from allowing Chad on their roster as a viable number 1 or number 2. There were a few QB's available this past offseason, i have already mentioned Josh McCown. If they really wanted they could have gone after the guy that beat him out in Detriot in Kitna, whom the lions don't seem too keen on since getting rid of Martz.

There were some QB's available, i can't think of any that could be worse than Chad at this point.

Your statements seem contradictory. You are saying the Jets are making a mistake keeping Chad around because it is leading to an (undesireable) QB controversy, but that the Jets should have gotten a better QB than Chad to back up Clemens. If (a pretty big if in my eyes) McCown is better than Chad, please explain how he will not cause a QB controversy with Clemens.

[drago]

Your statements seem contradictory. You are saying the Jets are making a mistake keeping Chad around because it is leading to an (undesireable) QB controversy, but that the Jets should have gotten a better QB than Chad to back up Clemens. If (a pretty big if in my eyes) McCown is better than Chad, please explain how he will not cause a QB controversy with Clemens.

I'm not against a QB competition, I'm against a QB competition where you no the one QB cannot get it doen (chad) and the other is an unknown quantity (clemens). Brining in a different QB would at least give the jets an out. As it stands if kellen cannot get it done, the jest lose an entire season.

This situation reminds me a lot of the Kendall situation of a year ago (minus the hold out). We are walking into a season blind at a certain position hoping to god that kellen can hold up.

[#27TheDominator]

I'm not against a QB competition, I'm against a QB competition where you no the one QB cannot get it doen (chad) and the other is an unknown quantity (clemens). Brining in a different QB would at least give the jets an out. As it stands if kellen cannot get it done, the jest lose an entire season.

This situation reminds me a lot of the Kendall situation of a year ago (minus the hold out). We are walking into a season blind at a certain position hoping to god that kellen can hold up.

Ah, so you are on this side of the fence regarding the QB competition. I understand the way you feel, but it doesn't seem anything like the Kendall situation to me. With Kendall the Jets dumped a decent starter and went with a nobody. They knew they were going to get a worse performance at LG in '07 than '06. It is almost inconceivable that the Jets will not have improved QB play in '08. Clemens should improve with experience, even if he sucks. No matter what you think of Pennington, IMO, he performed worse in '07 than any other season and I believe that was a result of Pennington being unable to cope with the poor line. With a better line either one should be an improvement over '07. Doesn't mean we'll be satisfied, but I doubt it'll be any worse.

[drago]

Ah, so you are on this side of the fence regarding the QB competition. I understand the way you feel, but it doesn't seem anything like the Kendall situation to me. With Kendall the Jets dumped a decent starter and went with a nobody. They knew they were going to get a worse performance at LG in '07 than '06. It is almost inconceivable that the Jets will not have improved QB play in '08. Clemens should improve with experience, even if he sucks. No matter what you think of Pennington, IMO, he performed worse in '07 than any other season and I believe that was a result of Pennington being unable to cope with the poor line. With a better line either one should be an improvement over '07. Doesn't mean we'll be satisfied, but I doubt it'll be any worse.

I hope you are right about the QB play not being any worse but Chad looked terrible out there. If we were evaluating both QBs on 2007's sample size everyone would be calling for a new guy. The only reason chad is still here is that he knows the system and had success with average teams in the past.

I have a good feeling about what KC can do for this club, so i'm not too concerend but i have seen more than enough Chad Pennington for one life time.

[#27TheDominator]

I hope you are right about the QB play not being any worse but Chad looked terrible out there. If we were evaluating both QBs on 2007's sample size everyone would be calling for a new guy. The only reason chad is still here is that he knows the system and had success with average teams in the past.

I have a good feeling about what KC can do for this club, so i'm not too concerend but i have seen more than enough Chad Pennington for one life time.

I'm not a Chad hater, but I've probably had enough him too. If Clemens can't beat him out he doesn't deserve to start. I would be calling for a new guy, but I guess I'm just not in love with the options.