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Jets PROBLEMS....Is it the DRAFT?


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20 replies to this topic

#1 raisingthebar

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:31 AM

At this point in the season, many of us realize that the Jets problems go way beyond one player or position. If you were to ask a fan what areas do they need improvement, you would probably get a response that consisted of just about every major unit or position on the team.

I have always heard the following saying when it comes to the NFL:

You build a team through the draft, not through free agency


Curiosity got the best of me and I decided to look at the Jets past drafts and compare them to some of the better teams in the league. The range is from 2008-2012 and includes the total number of draft picks, as well as the total number of picks in rounds 1-4 (since they would be considered the most valuable). Note that the picks below are ones that were actually used to draft a player and not picks that were traded away during free agency or to move up a position on draft day. Here are the results:

Draft Picks From 2008 - 2012


Total # of Picks

NYJ - 27

NYG - 37
NE - 48
HOU - 40
PIT - 42
SF - 38
GB - 42

# of Picks in Rounds 1-4

NYJ - 14

NYG - 22
NE - 27
HOU - 24
PIT - 20
SF - 17
GB - 21



The average number of draft picks for the other 6 teams, from 2008-2012, is 41. On average, the other 6 teams have had approximately 50% more draft picks in the past 4 years than the Jets, as well as 50% more picks in the first 4 rounds.

My general opinion on this Jets team is that the weak links, are very weak. Many can argue that they need better talent or more legit star players. I feel that they would be a much improved team if their weak links got only slightly better. So if you were to give Calvin Pace a grade of D, and another player could bring that OLB position up to a C or a C+, it would positively impact the defense as a unit. This is basic idea of football being the ultimate team game, with all 11 guys on the same page, all handling their responsibilities. I feel that you would find these sort of roster upgrades through the draft. They might not be a top 10 prospect, but they can be a 3rd or 4th rounder with upside, youth, and ability to be coached.

In the end, it has always seemed that the Jets easily give away draft picks in the pursuit of free agent prospects or as draft day leverage. I am not saying that these picks would of make up for all of the problems we see on Sunday, but when the analysis of the team shows needs in so many areas, it makes you wonder how to the other teams in the league go about building their rosters?

Edited by raisingthebar, 15 November 2012 - 11:37 AM.

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#2 bitonti

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:04 PM

yes it's the draft, but not in the way you say. More is not always better. The trade up for Revis was the best pick since Willy.

the big decisions have to be correct. Specifically picking Mark Sanchez at 5 overall. There's no other pick that has as much significance. if you whiff on a franchise QB, this is the result. Having depth at rb or lb... who cares. It's all about Qb in this league.

Edited by bitonti, 15 November 2012 - 02:05 PM.

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#3 HDKostempski

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:31 PM

In evaluating draft stategy, you can't just go by the number of picks in the draft. You have to include who they get for those picks. For example, the Gnats gave up a lot to get Eli Manning, but they aren't complaining because he's been a success. The Bills gave up a lot to trade back into the first round to take JP Losman in that same draft. OUCH!

OTOH, the Bills combo of Russ Brandon and his HC, Dick Jauron, kept most of their draft picks, but they simply picked sucky players, especially high in the draft. Their piece de resistance was taking Aaron Maybin at #11 in 2009 when Brian Orapko and Michael Oher were both still on the board. Now, how dumb is that????

The Jets' problem in the draft is that they traded away picks and got crap in return. The last top-notch player they drafted in the first round was Revis in 2008 (the Bills coulda had him, too!) with Mangini as HC. Almost all of the decent players on the Jets roster were either drafted before the arrival of Rex Ryan or acquired via trade or FA.

The Jets NOT only have a wheeler-dealer at GM, they've got a wheeler-dealer with limited football personnel knowledge who is utterly dependent on the advice of his HC, and frankly, the Tannenbaum-Ryan collaboration has sucked monkey balls big time in the draft. NONE of their first or second rounders have shown themselves to be more than adequate at best.

The Jets simply like to gamble too much IMO. Sanchez was a project. Coples was a gamble because of the serious questions about his work ethic, and so was Hill because of his inexperience in a passing offense as well as his pass catching ability.

Maybe y'all could hire Eric Mangini back as a draft consultant for Tannenbaum.
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#4 gEYno

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:42 PM

yes it's the draft, but not in the way you say. More is not always better. The trade up for Revis was the best pick since Willy.

the big decisions have to be correct. Specifically picking Mark Sanchez at 5 overall. There's no other pick that has as much significance. if you whiff on a franchise QB, this is the result. Having depth at rb or lb... who cares. It's all about Qb in this league.


Yes and No. More isn't always better, but not to go all math on JN, but you should be within a standard deviation of the mean. The Jets aren't really close. The trade up for Revis cost us what, 1 pick? The average of the teams the OP listed is 41. The Jets are 14 picks below that average. Again, Revis only cost us one extra pick. What about the other 13?
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#5 THE ILK

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:44 PM

The entire coaching staff needs to go!

Rex is the biggest problem we have, and he has more say in the players acquire than Tanny does.
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#6 gEYno

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:45 PM

Rex is the biggest problem we have, and he has more say in the players acquire than Tanny does.


Proof?
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#7 THE ILK

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:48 PM

Proof?


It's what I believe.
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#8 Stonehands

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:48 PM

The drafts come down to how many impact players you can get. Can you imagine what our team would look like if we had selected the two Seattle draftees that we have been rumored to have really liked....Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson? Wilson would probably still be on the bench, but at least he would provide a viable option to Sanchez at an affordable salary. And before I get flamed, I understand that Irvin went before we selected...I am playing "what if".
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#9 HDKostempski

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:55 PM

The entire coaching staff needs to go!

Rex is the biggest problem we have, and he has more say in the players acquire than Tanny does.

Proof?


I don't know that Ryan has more "say" but certainly Tannenbaum relies a lot on his HCs for their input on players as the drop in quality in draft picks from Mangini to Ryan indicates. Tannenbaum simply got better advice on players from Mangini than he has gotten from Ryan. It's NOT been a single year or even 2 out of 4 years, but every year since Ryan replaced Mangini. If it quacks like a duck, and it swims like a duck, and it looks like a duck, it's probably a duck and NOT a heron.
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#10 THE ILK

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:57 PM

Tanny needs to go too, I am sick of them both!
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#11 JiF

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 04:07 PM

I don't know that Ryan has more "say" but certainly Tannenbaum relies a lot on his HCs for their input on players as the drop in quality in draft picks from Mangini to Ryan indicates. Tannenbaum simply got better advice on players from Mangini than he has gotten from Ryan. It's NOT been a single year or even 2 out of 4 years, but every year since Ryan replaced Mangini. If it quacks like a duck, and it swims like a duck, and it looks like a duck, it's probably a duck and NOT a heron.


You sure know a lot about the inner works of the Jets front office and the relationships they share with their HC's for a Bills fan.

Explain Gholston to me while you are at it.

Edited by JiF, 15 November 2012 - 04:07 PM.

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#12 GATA

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 04:22 PM

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How have we progressed in the last two years ...
It's like we hit a peek in 2010 and thus far it's all need downhill from there.
What SOLID WR talent do we have ... The one guy we had that was any good is hurt
and even he was a poisonous factor in the locker room.
We keep investing so much on Def. and yet we fall short on this "GROUND AND POUND" philosophy.
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#13 HessStation

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 04:27 PM

At this point in the season, many of us realize that the Jets problems go way beyond one player or position. If you were to ask a fan what areas do they need improvement, you would probably get a response that consisted of just about every major unit or position on the team.

I have always heard the following saying when it comes to the NFL:

You build a team through the draft, not through free agency


Curiosity got the best of me and I decided to look at the Jets past drafts and compare them to some of the better teams in the league. The range is from 2008-2012 and includes the total number of draft picks, as well as the total number of picks in rounds 1-4 (since they would be considered the most valuable). Note that the picks below are ones that were actually used to draft a player and not picks that were traded away during free agency or to move up a position on draft day. Here are the results:

Draft Picks From 2008 - 2012


Total # of Picks

NYJ - 27

NYG - 37
NE - 48
HOU - 40
PIT - 42
SF - 38
GB - 42

# of Picks in Rounds 1-4

NYJ - 14

NYG - 22
NE - 27
HOU - 24
PIT - 20
SF - 17
GB - 21



The average number of draft picks for the other 6 teams, from 2008-2012, is 41. On average, the other 6 teams have had approximately 50% more draft picks in the past 4 years than the Jets, as well as 50% more picks in the first 4 rounds.

My general opinion on this Jets team is that the weak links, are very weak. Many can argue that they need better talent or more legit star players. I feel that they would be a much improved team if their weak links got only slightly better. So if you were to give Calvin Pace a grade of D, and another player could bring that OLB position up to a C or a C+, it would positively impact the defense as a unit. This is basic idea of football being the ultimate team game, with all 11 guys on the same page, all handling their responsibilities. I feel that you would find these sort of roster upgrades through the draft. They might not be a top 10 prospect, but they can be a 3rd or 4th rounder with upside, youth, and ability to be coached.

In the end, it has always seemed that the Jets easily give away draft picks in the pursuit of free agent prospects or as draft day leverage. I am not saying that these picks would of make up for all of the problems we see on Sunday, but when the analysis of the team shows needs in so many areas, it makes you wonder how to the other teams in the league go about building their rosters?

or you could just cut through all the bullsh*t and look at who the QB is, SF being the exception having to make up for this by having a Top defense, running game and head coach...with multiple 1st round and HOF receivers to boot.
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#14 SMC

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 04:43 PM

Yes, it's the draft. And it isn't about the number of picks because I believe trading up is a valid tactic to target what a team needs. Quality always trumps quantity.

The problem is the misses. The Jets missed on Sanchez, Keller, Greene, and Wilson, and busted on Gholston and Vlad. Just imagine where the Jets would be if these 6 players were each above average players at their respective positions.

The Jets wouldn't be 3-6 right now, I tell you that. They'd have a good QB, a good No. 1 target at TE, a good No. 1 CB (which would save the Jets extra money to use elsewhere) a genuine pass rusher, and a mauler at RT to complement Brick and Mangold.
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#15 jack48

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 06:48 PM

At this point in the season, many of us realize that the Jets problems go way beyond one player or position. If you were to ask a fan what areas do they need improvement, you would probably get a response that consisted of just about every major unit or position on the team.

I have always heard the following saying when it comes to the NFL:

You build a team through the draft, not through free agency


Curiosity got the best of me and I decided to look at the Jets past drafts and compare them to some of the better teams in the league. The range is from 2008-2012 and includes the total number of draft picks, as well as the total number of picks in rounds 1-4 (since they would be considered the most valuable). Note that the picks below are ones that were actually used to draft a player and not picks that were traded away during free agency or to move up a position on draft day. Here are the results:

Draft Picks From 2008 - 2012


Total # of Picks

NYJ - 27

NYG - 37
NE - 48
HOU - 40
PIT - 42
SF - 38
GB - 42

# of Picks in Rounds 1-4

NYJ - 14

NYG - 22
NE - 27
HOU - 24
PIT - 20
SF - 17
GB - 21



The average number of draft picks for the other 6 teams, from 2008-2012, is 41. On average, the other 6 teams have had approximately 50% more draft picks in the past 4 years than the Jets, as well as 50% more picks in the first 4 rounds.

My general opinion on this Jets team is that the weak links, are very weak. Many can argue that they need better talent or more legit star players. I feel that they would be a much improved team if their weak links got only slightly better. So if you were to give Calvin Pace a grade of D, and another player could bring that OLB position up to a C or a C+, it would positively impact the defense as a unit. This is basic idea of football being the ultimate team game, with all 11 guys on the same page, all handling their responsibilities. I feel that you would find these sort of roster upgrades through the draft. They might not be a top 10 prospect, but they can be a 3rd or 4th rounder with upside, youth, and ability to be coached.

In the end, it has always seemed that the Jets easily give away draft picks in the pursuit of free agent prospects or as draft day leverage. I am not saying that these picks would of make up for all of the problems we see on Sunday, but when the analysis of the team shows needs in so many areas, it makes you wonder how to the other teams in the league go about building their rosters?



I think the NE total should be corrected--to 148.

Edited by jack48, 15 November 2012 - 06:49 PM.

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#16 HDKostempski

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 07:07 PM

You sure know a lot about the inner works of the Jets front office and the relationships they share with their HC's for a Bills fan.

Explain Gholston to me while you are at it.


You don't need to know anything about the "inner works of the Jets front office and the relationships they share with their HC's" to see the evidence in front of your face and draw your own conclusions from it. Tannenbaum has been the same through both HCs' regimes. The scouting departments haven't changed significantly, either. The only big changes have been in the HCs and in the quality of the top draft picks.

With Mangini as HC, the Jets drafted Mangold, D'Brick, and Revis, all Pro Bowlers. They missed on Gholston. It happens.

With Ryan as HC, the Jets drafted Sanchez, Wilson, Keller, DuCasse, and Wilkerson, 2 outright busts and 2 mediocre players in the first and second rounds. None of them is being touted for the Pro Bowl. Coples hasn't been getting on the field all that much despite the lack of a pass rush. Hill is green as grass and probably shouldn't even be out there except that the Jets have such a putrid WR corps that he's a starter. Other teams' rookies are starting and getting good reviews.

Again, if it walks like a duck, and it swims like a duck, and it looks like a duck, it's likely a duck and NOT a heron. No special expertise in avian biology needed, just knowing what ducks generally look like and what herons generally look like.

Edited by HDKostempski, 15 November 2012 - 07:09 PM.

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#17 JiF

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:55 PM

You don't need to know anything about the "inner works of the Jets front office and the relationships they share with their HC's" to see the evidence in front of your face and draw your own conclusions from it. Tannenbaum has been the same through both HCs' regimes. The scouting departments haven't changed significantly, either. The only big changes have been in the HCs and in the quality of the top draft picks.

With Mangini as HC, the Jets drafted Mangold, D'Brick, and Revis, all Pro Bowlers. They missed on Gholston. It happens.

With Ryan as HC, the Jets drafted Sanchez, Wilson, Keller, DuCasse, and Wilkerson, 2 outright busts and 2 mediocre players in the first and second rounds. None of them is being touted for the Pro Bowl. Coples hasn't been getting on the field all that much despite the lack of a pass rush. Hill is green as grass and probably shouldn't even be out there except that the Jets have such a putrid WR corps that he's a starter. Other teams' rookies are starting and getting good reviews.

Again, if it walks like a duck, and it swims like a duck, and it looks like a duck, it's likely a duck and NOT a heron. No special expertise in avian biology needed, just knowing what ducks generally look like and what herons generally look like.


Its ok, it happens, when you draft a colossal bust in Gholston but Rex Ryan doesnt get the same no big deal treament?

The drafts really shouldnt even be compared. Mangini had early picks and had more picks. Plus, he had 2 first round picks his first year. Ryan has never had a pick as high as Mangini. Mangini had two picks in the top 6; DBrick who was an obvious sure shot prospect at his position and the colossal bust Gholston, who was a much worse pick than Sanchez in terms of production.

The last 2 drafts have been good with some possible upside. Mo Wilk and Kendrick Ellis are going to be players. Kerley is going to be a very good slot receiver in this league for a long time. Maybe even everyone's favorite....McElroy! lol And its extremely hard and unfair to assess this years draft with this disaster of a season but Coples and Davis look to have some upside and if Hill could learn to catch might be a good receiver.
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#18 pointman

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:58 PM

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How have we progressed in the last two years ...
It's like we hit a peek in 2010 and thus far it's all need downhill from there.
What SOLID WR talent do we have ... The one guy we had that was any good is hurt
and even he was a poisonous factor in the locker room.
We keep investing so much on Def. and yet we fall short on this "GROUND AND POUND" philosophy.

2010 was our year. And now, its a major drop off. I completely agree. We are always defense defense defense.. and our offense is horrible. Makes zero sense.
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#19 neckdemon

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:50 AM

the biggest problem is sanchez. we won in spite of him in 2010 and now we are not winning in spite of him. a good qb will make the skill players around him just a little bit better. sanchez makes them all worse.
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#20 JetsFanInDenver

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:50 AM

Duplicate post. Delete!

Edited by JetsFanInDenver, 16 November 2012 - 07:52 AM.

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#21 JetsFanInDenver

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:52 AM

Its not just the draft. Its how we have mismanaged every facet of the team the past few seasons since that that handicaps our ability to cme out of this funk realy soon. The extension of Sanchez, the resigning of Holmes and too for a oversized contract, the Harris deal, the infatuation with Aso, and neglect of addressing the OL.

Sanchez, Holmes and Harris contracts alone that will ensure if some really super negotiating is not done in the off season the JETS will suck next season as well!

Edited by JetsFanInDenver, 16 November 2012 - 07:52 AM.

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