How awful was the 2009 First Round? Pretty f'ing awful. (PFF re-drafts it)

[T0mShane]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/27/pffs-2009-first-round-re-draft/

(On mobile and their display is un-copyable because of ads. If someone can cut-and-paste, thanks).

Anyway, the moral of the story is that the scouting community is dead full of sh*t. Also worth noting that this year's first round could easily be like this one--the QBs are spotty, the pass rushers all have major question marks, and none of the OL are on the level of a Orlando Pace or Steve Hutchinson.

1. Lions: Matt Stafford (re-draft: Matt Stafford)

2. Rams: Jason Smith (re-draft: Hakeem Nicks)

3. Chiefs: Tyson Jackson (re-draft: Clay Matthews)

4. Seahawks: Aaron Curry (re-draft: Arian Foster)

5. Jets: Mark Sanchez (re-draft: Percy Harvin)

6. Bengals: Andre Smith (re-draft: Brian Orakpo)

7. Raiders: Darius Heyward-Bey (re-draft Mike Wallace)

8. Jaguars: Eugene Monroe (re-draft: Monroe)

9 Packers: BJ Raji (re-draft: Sebastian Vollmer)

10. Niners: Michael Crabtree (re-draft: Crabtree)

11. Bills: Aaron Maybin (re-draft: Brian Cushing)

12: Broncos: Knowshon Moreno (re-draft: LeSean McCoy)

[JADEDGREEN]

re-draft = Idzik take

[Stonehands]

Probably a lesson to be learned from this draft and the Robertson draft about moving up for a specific target in a weak draft.  At the time, I thought it was prudent, in both cases, to go up and get the "sure thing", but maybe the better move is to try and overcome the weak draft by sticking with numbers and hoping a couple of guys hit.

 

I would think Josh Freeman would come of the board shortly after McCoy in a re-draft, too.

[JiFtheOracle]

Its an interesting article and its reminds me of what I've been saying for years when people knock the Jets drafting and trading away picks.  Every team in the NFL, save 2 or 3 in a 2-3 year span, sucks at drafting.  Find a pick you hate by the Jets, go back and look at who was taken in or around that pick and you can see...every team sucks and that pick was just as bad as a dozen other teams in the league.

 

You could argue Ozzie Newsome is really the only consistently strong GM when it comes to the draft.  The rest are as hit as miss as the next guy.

 

And then when you factor in the entire percentages of players that are still in the league from that draft and its 30% (and I think less actually), yeah, the draft is a crap shoot and LUCK is a huge factor. 

[sirlancemehlot]

Its an interesting article and its reminds me of what I've been saying for years when people knock the Jets drafting and trading away picks.  Every team in the NFL, save 2 or 3 in a 2-3 year span, sucks at drafting.  Find a pick you hate by the Jets, go back and look at who was taken in or around that pick and you can see...every team sucks and that pick was just as bad as a dozen other teams in the league.

 

You could argue Ozzie Newsome is really the only consistently strong GM when it comes to the draft.  The rest are as hit as miss as the next guy.

 

And then when you factor in the entire percentages of players that are still in the league from that draft and its 30% (and I think less actually), yeah, the draft is a crap shoot and LUCK is a huge factor. 

All the more reason to stockpile picks in hopes of getting a few players that can help you. When draftees are so randomly hit or miss, what's the logic in having only three or four draft picks?

[T0mShane]

All the more reason to stockpile picks in hopes of getting a few players that can help you. When draftees are so randomly hit or miss, what's the logic in having only three or four draft picks?

[JiFtheOracle]

All the more reason to stockpile picks in hopes of getting a few players that can help you. When draftees are so randomly hit or miss, what's the logic in having only three or four draft picks?

 

I'm all about stock piling picks...but its not the silver bullet answer to all problems.  The Jets had plenty of picks last season - how many will contribute to the Jets success in the future?  2.  Maybe 3?

[SenorGato]

How did Raji get kicked out of the top ten? Guy is really good.

If 30% of the draft is sticking around then why would you want more picks? Wouldn't you want more guys from that 30%? Does more picks make that more likely? Depends on where the picks are, but overall I would say no. After the second "more picks" is pretty unappealling to me in most contexts.

[j4jets]

Probably a lesson to be learned from this draft and the Robertson draft about moving up for a specific target in a weak draft.  At the time, I thought it was prudent, in both cases, to go up and get the "sure thing", but maybe the better move is to try and overcome the weak draft by sticking with numbers and hoping a couple of guys hit.

 

I would think Josh Freeman would come of the board shortly after McCoy in a re-draft, too.

 

Jets moved up to grab All-world Revis, and all-pro David Harris.

[j4jets]

How did Raji get kicked out of the top ten? Guy is really good.

If 30% of the draft is sticking around then why would you want more picks? Wouldn't you want more guys from that 30%? Does more picks make that more likely? Depends on where the picks are, but overall I would say no. After the second "more picks" is pretty unappealling to me in most contexts.

 

Vollmer, Wallace, and Crabtree are ranked too high for my liking. Wallace is so overrated. He had his worst year in his contract year. He's good, but nowhere near the top 10 of that year.

[bitonti]

How did Raji get kicked out of the top ten? Guy is really good.

 

 

yeah I was just about the post the same question. He made impact plays during their 2011 super bowl run. 

[SenorGato]

Vollmer, Wallace, and Crabtree are ranked too high for my liking. Wallace is so overrated. He had his worst year in his contract year. He's good, but nowhere near the top 10 of that year.

Vollmer is a beeeeeeast when healthy. Love Wallace too, he's an awesome playmaker. Crabtree is a solid starting WR for a good team so no real issue with him either.

[SenorGato]

yeah I was just about the post the same question. He made impact plays during their 2011 super bowl run.

It's because they gayed up football so much that people only know the players who produce for their fantasy teams. Guys who are way better in real life than fantasy always seem to get hurt in the mainstream. If you play defense and don't rack up sacks just forget it...no one will know who you are no matter how strong a player.

[Stonehands]

Jets moved up to grab All-world Revis, and all-pro David Harris.

 

Those guys were both in the 2007 draft which was a stronger draft, though.

[j4jets]

Those guys were both in the 2007 draft which was a stronger draft, though.

 

Theres no telling when a draft is strong or weak until a few years after.

 

Im fine with us targeting specific players in a draft thats considered weak, and adding extra picks in a draft thats considered strong.

[Greenseed4]

If 30% of the draft is sticking around then why would you want more picks? Wouldn't you want more guys from that 30%? Does more picks make that more likely?

 

 

According to extremely basic math, yes.  

[SenorGato]

According to extremely basic math, yes.  

 

Meh, all it's doing is diluting the total talent of your draft in the end. If I knew only 30% of a draft would be around in 4 years then I'm looking to land the best of that 30% rather than all the 30%. One is more likely to happen than the other if the focus goes there. 

[slats]

Jets moved up to grab All-world Revis, and all-pro David Harris.

And Sanchez, and DRob, and Keller, and Shonn Greene, and Kellen Clemens....

And the draft status/mechanics probably had a lot to do with the horrible extensions given to Sanchez and Harris, too.

[bitonti]

And Sanchez, and DRob, and Keller, and Shonn Greene, and Kellen Clemens....

 

 

 

they actually moved down for Clemens. but generally you are right... 

[slats]

they actually moved down for Clemens. but generally you are right... 

I thought they moved down, and then back up.... ?

These memories are too painful (cue Sperm to post Bradway/Tanny's greatest hits in 3, 2, ... )

[Greenseed4]

Meh, all it's doing is diluting the total talent of your draft in the end. If I knew only 30% of a draft would be around in 4 years then I'm looking to land the best of that 30% rather than all the 30%. One is more likely to happen than the other if the focus goes there. 

 

Whaaat?   

[Cyberjet]

All those guys in the new top 10 would be considered a reach by the draft gurus back then and would have been a "terrible" pick. I always wonder how does a top 3 pick become a top 3 pick - based on whose eval? Couldn't it be possible that the top 10 board for the Jets is completely different than the 49ers and the Mel Kipers of this world. if you picked scouts from 3 separate teams without any outside influence would be interesting to see their top 10 picks and how different they would be.

[sirlancemehlot]

Meh, all it's doing is diluting the total talent of your draft in the end. If I knew only 30% of a draft would be around in 4 years then I'm looking to land the best of that 30% rather than all the 30%. One is more likely to happen than the other if the focus goes there. 

I think we went to way different schools. My math teacher taught me that 30 percent of 3 picks is fewer than 30 percent of 12 picks. Since 30 percent of all picks are viable, productive players, it makes more sense to keep as many picks at your disposal as possible. Of course I could be wrong. I was a lit major.

[SenorGato]

I think we went to way different schools. My math teacher taught me that 30 percent of 3 picks is fewer than 30 percent of 12 picks. Since 30 percent of all picks are viable, productive players, it makes more sense to keep as many picks at your disposal as possible. Of course I could be wrong. I was a lit major.

 

You're assuming that that whole 30% is of equal talent level, a terrible assumption to make. 

[j4jets]

And Sanchez, and DRob, and Keller, and Shonn Greene, and Kellen Clemens....

And the draft status/mechanics probably had a lot to do with the horrible extensions given to Sanchez and Harris, too.

 

Sanchez extension was plauded by many cap experts as it only guaranteed a couple of years by Sanchez after his 32TD, 18 int season. Harris was coming off an All-Pro season the year before and signed a $9mil a yr deal, not really a horrible extension.

 

I do agree, a lot of the extensions in the NFL have a lot to do where a player was drafted. DRob and Clemens were drafted by a couple of FOs earlier and Im not defending them. Sanchez took us to two AFCCG appearances and has been really good in playoffs. Keller gave us some good years but it was hardly a jump to draft him (Giants pick was next and they were going to draft him). Greene was a 3rd rounder and still gave us a couple of 1k seasons.

 

We stayed put in 2008 and drafted Ghost. We didn't target him but he fell to us.

 

Point is, each situation is uniqe and there's no way telling if you're right or wrong. Hindsight is always 20/20.

[Integrity28]

Its an interesting article and its reminds me of what I've been saying for years when people knock the Jets drafting and trading away picks.  Every team in the NFL, save 2 or 3 in a 2-3 year span, sucks at drafting.  Find a pick you hate by the Jets, go back and look at who was taken in or around that pick and you can see...every team sucks and that pick was just as bad as a dozen other teams in the league.

 

You could argue Ozzie Newsome is really the only consistently strong GM when it comes to the draft.  The rest are as hit as miss as the next guy.

 

And then when you factor in the entire percentages of players that are still in the league from that draft and its 30% (and I think less actually), yeah, the draft is a crap shoot and LUCK is a huge factor. 

 

 

Ozzie is very good at his job. 

 

Loses Ellerbe and old Ed Reed, gets Dumerville and Huff. Wow.

[Stonehands]

Theres no telling when a draft is strong or weak until a few years after.

 

Im fine with us targeting specific players in a draft thats considered weak, and adding extra picks in a draft thats considered strong.

 

Sure there is.  I remember the D Rob draft, everyone was saying there were only 8 first round grades in the draft.  The grading system used by scouts doesn't grade on a curve, it uses absolute numbers.  You can absolutely tell a strong draft from a weak draft before it takes place.

[#27TheDominator]

IIRC, a large portion of the move- up for Keller was that at that spot in the draft you locked the guy up for an additional year.