Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 There is so much noise about the medocrity of this year's qb class; this is an interesting take from Secondroundstats.com on four of them from a stats and film study perspective. http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/01/smith-barkley-glennon-and-wilson-a-metrics-breakdown/ Smith, Barkley, Glennon, and Wilson – A Metrics Breakdown Geno Smith | Matt Barkley | Tyler Wilson | Mike Glennon I am the most excited about this post out of any other I’ll do pre-draft season because I did the exact same thing last year and I get to compare the results. Specifically, I’ll be comparing all of the “tier 1” quarterbacks to see how they stack up. This class is even more interesting than last year’s because no one is sure who is the top quarterback. This leaves far more room for statistical analysis to help us decide our own opinions. Within the analysis, I’ll be referring to an AvgQB which is a composite of data from last year’s QB class (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Wilson, Osweiler, Cousins, and Weeden). These stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, I’m going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it. So let’s delve into the QB class! Targets Both Geno Smith and Matt Barkley throw a high amount of screens at 30% and 22%. These are significantly higher than what the AvgQB throws at 17%(These are the targets, they only mark where the ball was caught) All 4 quarterbacks throw a significant amount of passes within 1-5 yards of the line of scrimmage, but Barkley’s combined 52% screens and 1-5 yard passes are by far the highest among all QBs The quarterbacks are pretty even among the 6-10 yard intermediate range, all hovering around the same 21% we see with the AvgQB. Mike Glennon by far is the most likely to go deep. He’s above average in both the 11-20 range and the 20+ range. The only one of the four quarterbacks to do so. Barkley, Smith and Wilson all hover in the combined 28% range past 20 yards, all are below average compared to last year’s QB class. Accuracy This one requires a bit of explanation. The color coding are comparisons to the AvgQB, thus green is above average, yellow is average, and red is below average. I have also taken out drops, for what I call the Perfect Receiver Rating, thus the completion percentages aren’t what you’d see in the box scores. Both Geno Smith and Mike Glennon are elite in terms of short 1-5 yard passes. Their accuracies at 83% and 82% are better than RGIII’s last year and would have put them behind only Russell Wilson in that zone. The biggest red flag for me when looking at Barkley is the low completion percentage in the 1-5 yard zone. He threw in that area 30% of the time, but wasn’t at average. Rookie QBs in the NFL are asked to throw 1-5 yard routes fairly often, so there’s a bit to be worried about. Geno Smith is excellent in the intermediate zones of 6-10 yards and 11-20 yards. Tyler Wilson is really not. This is what concerns me about Tyler Wilson, he’s pushing average in the 1-5 yard zone but can’t hit average at any other range. I don’t think he’ll be able to push the ball down field in the NFL Barkley and Glennon are really the solid deep threats we see here. Both can hit the 11-20 range solidly and Barkley is excellent at 20+ yards. As a reference, Luck was at 50% on 20+ last year and RGIII was at 62.5%. Adjusted Completion % The last bit of information I have is going to require a bit of explanation. My goal was to take out the variability of systems they all played in. Thus, how would Geno Smith have performed in Mike Glennon’s shoes? This is imperfect, but it gives you a feel for how the systems helped or harmed them. What I’ve done is taken out drops and then used my composite of targets in each zone from last year’s QBs to create an average system. Thus, I took their completion percentages, total passes, and the average system to find out what their overall completion percentage would have been in the average system. The top number is the adjusted completion percentage and the bottom number is the change from their overall completion percentage (with drops already taken out) Thus we see that Geno’s system helped him the most, had he been forced to throw more deep routes and less screens his overall completion percentage would have gone down roughly 2.8% Barkley similarly was harmed due to the high amount of screens and 1-5 yard passes he throws, the “gimme” passes Glennon was actually helped by this. He threw many more deep passes than the others and would have benefitted overall from throwing more screens and shorter passes. One final bit of info, I looked at the average distance that the QB’s passes traveled. This is really only yardage (before YAC) divided by completions. Of course, from this we can see that Mike Glennon by far threw the deepest ball on average. Geno Smith was really hurt by the amount of screens he threw and the fact that many of them were 5 -6 yards behind the LOS really dragged down his overall average I’m going to present a few more charts with no comments. Among them are play result, completion percentage by down, total yardage by quarter, and red zone yardage. Before the stats, if you’ve liked this, you can follow me at . I have approximately one follower right now, since I just started this up. I do work pretty much every day breaking down prospects and I’ll be tweeting out interesting stats that I come across (today I found out Justin Hunter drops ~10% of his passes), future articles/breakdowns (Dysert, Nassib, Manuel post upcoming), or let you know when I post new things (hopefully a WR post soon) . Thanks a lot! Result: *Interceptions were factored out of this chart, thus each column will not add up to 100% **Throw-aways were counted as “Single Coverage” ***Overthrows had to be passes that either were too high or too far in front of the wide receiver By Down: Percentage of Yardage By Quarter: Completion % By Formation: Red Zone Yardage/ Season: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 No Nassib, no Manuel turned this into TL;DR for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I have seen this theory that Geno's stats should be taken with a grain of salt because his offense had him making short controlled throws, but those are the throws he was asked to make. It doesn't change the fact that when asked to make throws to the complete receiver route tree at his pro day, he was the best of anyone coming out this year. The guy can pass. He is going to need to be coached up on things, but he is a good prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I usually hate these kind of stat articles. This was a pretty good one. Guy has an interesting site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I have seen this theory that Geno's stats should be taken with a grain of salt because his offense had him making short controlled throws, but those are the throws he was asked to make. It doesn't change the fact that when asked to make throws to the complete receiver route tree at his pro day, he was the best of anyone coming out this year. The guy can pass. He is going to need to be coached up on things, but he is a good prospect. While I get what you're saying, that 33.33% completion percentage on throws from under center is absolutely frightening. That's got to bring some serious questions about his ability to really do all of that when he's on the field with a defense in his face and not in shorts tossing around a ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I have seen this theory that Geno's stats should be taken with a grain of salt because his offense had him making short controlled throws, but those are the throws he was asked to make. It doesn't change the fact that when asked to make throws to the complete receiver route tree at his pro day, he was the best of anyone coming out this year. The guy can pass. He is going to need to be coached up on things, but he is a good prospect. Agreed. While I like the overall breakdown of this article, it tends to paint Geno in a negative picture simply because of the offense he operated in. If people were to look at Drew Brees' stats, you'd see that during his incredible run in Norleans, he's lead the league in passes behind or at the line of scrimmage. All it matters is that a quarterback has the ability to make all the throws when necessary and isn't physically limited to dinking and dunking, something I think Wilson and Barkley may be forced to do, due to their lack of arm-talent. I'd like to preemptively state that I'm not advocating for Geno, just trying to point out how it seems people are trying to go out of their way to discredit some of the things he does. I personally don't even feel this draft is that terrible; looking back at 2008 you had Matt Ryan and Flacco (who wasn't anything special at the time) and other than them you had a bunch of scrubs and following it up was the worst in 2010 with Sam Bradford followed by Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Mike Kafka etc. Every year when there's no elite QB, everyone thinks it's the worst QB year ever'; I'm pretty positive there will be a handful of QBs who make themselves a nice career out of this class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Gangrene. Can you post the article on pass rushers from the same site? i tried to copy and paste it, but it came out like crap. Thought that was also very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 While I get what you're saying, that 33.33% completion percentage on throws from under center is absolutely frightening. That's got to bring some serious questions about his ability to really do all of that when he's on the field with a defense in his face and not in shorts tossing around a ball. I don't know that you can draw that conclusion just from the number itself. The WVU offense was run largely out of the shot gun formation, you would have to see what the play calls were that dictated he be under center before you could draw that conclusion. For example, imagine if he were under center in bad weather games only or when the starting center was on the sideline injured, you could see other factors in those plays that might lead to a lower completion percentage. It is certainly something to research, though. There have been other QB's that ran the bulk of their college players from the pistol or shot gun who have done fine in the pros when forced to adapt. If you want to undersell the value of hitting guys on an open field in shorts with passes, what does it say for the guy that can't manage to even do that well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Nassib, Dysert, and Manuel: A Metrics Breakdown http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/08/nassib-dysert-and-manuel-a-metrics-breakdown/ To see the individual scouting reports Ryan Nassib | EJ Manuel | Zac Dysert After posting the first quarterback breakdown, I had people asking for a 2nd tier including some of the guys that we could see go in the 2nd through 4th rounds. Last year, a study of Cousins and Osweiler just showed sub-par prospects, so I expected the same this year. Not so, the second tier of QBs are simply a study in mystery. Statistically, any of them could be the best quarterback in this class. Now, no one is expecting EJ Manuel to go number 1 overall, but these stats could give you some pause when ranking your quarterbacks. Two of these quarterbacks have the best deep accuracy in this class. One had better deep accuracy than RGIII did. One has the second best 11-20 yard accuracy of any QB in the last two classes. What to make of it? Let’s find out. As always, these stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, I’m going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it. Where Are They Throwing the Ball? Ryan Nassib’s distribution of passes could be Andrew Luck’s from last year. Instead of writing it all out, I’ll just put up a chart to show how similar they are. Aside from a 2.5 point swing in the 6-10/11-20 ranges, they could be the same chart.(These are the targets, they only mark where the ball was caught) Dysert went deep nearly half as often as the AvgQB. Where the AvgQB went deep 14% of the time, Dysert only threw deep 7.88% of the time. The majority of his targets are concentrated in the 1-10 yard range at 59%. EJ Manuel only threw it past ten yards 26% of the time. This ties Barkley for the lowest amount in the last two classes. Was that Jimbo Fisher’s offense or Manuel just deciding to hit the easy passes often? Most likely a combination of both. All three QBs threw in the 1-5 yard range far more than average. All hover in the 32-36% range for 1-5 yard passes, approximately 8-10% more than average. How Accurate Were They? The color coding are comparisons to the AvgQB, thus green is above average, yellow is average, and red is below average. I have also taken out drops, for what I call the Perfect Receiver Rating, thus the completion percentages aren’t what you’d see in the box scores. These numbers are extremely strange. Dysert is the most accurate deep passer in the last two classes. However, as we saw above, he only went deep 7.88% of the time. It’s likely an anomaly, but this completion percentage would make him better at the deep ball than RGIII was (62.5%). EJ Manuel is the most accurate 11-20 yard passer in this class. Again, Manuel only went to this zone 13% of the time, but completed his passes an amazing 73% of the time. That would be second best in the last two classes only behind RGIII (81%) EJ also has the worst deep ball in this class. I don’t understand this, he’s super accurate from 11-20 yards but then suddenly drops off when he has to throw past 20 yards. Ryan Nassib is average or above average in every zone. He was extremely accurate at the deep ball, even after throwing there 10% of the time. His 11-20 yard completion percentage of 58.5% is impressive given that he threw to that zone 28% of the time. This would make him and Barkley the only two QBs in this class to not be below average in any zone. Adjusted Completion % The last bit of information I have is going to require a bit of explanation. My goal was to take out the variability of systems they all played in. Thus, how would Zac Dysert have performed in Matt Barkley’s shoes? This is imperfect, but it gives you a feel for how the systems helped or harmed them. What I’ve done is taken out drops and then used my composite of targets in each zone from last year’s QBs to create an average system. Thus, I took their completion percentages, total passes, and the average system to find out what their overall completion percentage would have been in the average system. The top number is the adjusted completion percentage and the bottom number is the change from their overall completion percentage (with drops already taken out) We can see that Manuel would have the second highest adjusted completion percentage in this class. His completion percentage still dropped, due to the high number of ‘gimme’ passes, but only by 1.12% Nassib and Dysert’s numbers didn’t drop much. Neither ran what could be considered an ‘average offense’, but when the high targets on short passes are taken out, it’s balanced by the high completion percentages on deep passes (even though they didn’t throw them often) One final bit of info, I looked at the average distance that the QB’s passes traveled. This is really only yardage (before YAC) divided by completions. Despite throwing to the 11-20 yard range often, the average distance of Nassib’s completions is quite low at 4.94 Dysert’s is second highest in this QB class at 7.43 yards. I’m going to present a few more charts with no comments. Among them are play result, completion percentage by down, total yardage by quarter, and red zone yardage. Before the stats, if you’ve liked this, you can follow me at . I do work pretty much every day breaking down prospects and I’ll be tweeting out interesting stats that I come across , future articles/breakdowns (CBs are most likely next), or let you know when I post new things (Tavon Austin individual breakdown) . Thanks a lot! Result: *Interceptions were factored out of this chart, thus each column will not add up to 100% **Throw-aways were counted as “Single Coverage” ***Overthrows had to be passes that either were too high or too far in front of the wide receiver By Down: *N/D stands for No Data and it was because both Dysert and Manuel did not pass often enough on 4th down to be significant Percentage of Yardage By Quarter: Completion % By Formation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Gangrene. Can you post the article on pass rushers from the same site? i tried to copy and paste it, but it came out like crap. Thought that was also very interesting. http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/27/pass-rushers-pt1/ A Statistical Breakdown of the Top Pass Rushers (Pt. 1, Sacks) Pass rushers are one of the most coveted positions, and thus one of the most scrutinized. We hear about this guy’s stiff hips or that guy’s long arms, I’m not going to talk about that. However, because pass rushers are so important, I’m going to break them into two parts. The first part (this one) is a study on their sacks, just their sacks. Every sack analyzed and broken down into its component parts to see how and why it came about. The next part will break down a sample of their game play and will take into account pressures, holding, QB hits, etc. For now we stick with the sacks to analyze their pass rushing prowess. The goal for this was to analyze each and every sack. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to get game tape on sacks against some of the smaller schools (Murray State). I did get a sufficient sample on most players and I’m happy with the data I got. I’m looking at a large prospect group, so I won’t comment on every player but only the most interesting parts. (Sorry for the small-ish charts, I have too many players and the site isn’t cooperating) How Quickly Did They Get to the QB? I decided to measure the amount of time it took each player to get to the quarterback. With data on ten prospects, I have a good feeling for what these numbers represent. Generally, times greater than 5 seconds are coverage sacks. Times between 3.5 and 5 seconds are the majority of sacks and what you would call “average sacks”. Sacks faster than 3.5 seconds are speed sacks which result from a good jump off the line or just great burst. Mingo, of course, had one of the fastest times in getting to the QB. You could have predicted it by looking at his athleticism on tape or at the combine, but it shows up on his sacks. Even though his number of sacks was limited, none of them were coverage sacks and he got to the QB in 3.63 seconds on average. For the size of Tank Carradine and Bjoern Werner, they got the QB quickly. Both came in at 3.91 seconds and 45% of their sacks would be considered speed sacks. That’s extremely close to Dion Jordan who is considered far more of a “speed” guy than the others. Damontre Moore’s number is disappointing. On average it took him 4.51 seconds to get to the QB and 44.4% of his sacks were from coverage. For a pass-rushing specialist, he wasn’t near the numbers of any other prospects. Don’t read too much into Ansah’s numbers. He had a small sample size and I was even hesitant about putting his numbers up because I think they’re a tad misleading. He did, on average take a long time to get to the QB, you can judge whether you think that’s his rawness or a concern. Okafor’s time is great at 3.56. That time is faster than Mingo who came in roughly 20 lbs lighter than him at the Combine and is largely considered the “speed” specialist. None of Okafor’s 11 sacks were from coverage. This isn’t a fluke of small sample size, Okafor simply got to the QB quickly. How Did They Get There? This is a breakdown of what moves they used to get to the QB. I simplified it down to three categories instead of having a million different moves and counters. Damontre Moore had a wide variety of ways to get to the QB, the majority of his sacks came off going to the inside, but he also used bull and outside rushes to the tune of 22% and 44% respectively. Whether this variety was a detriment to his speed as noted above or he used these moves because he didn’t have a quick outside rush, the rush flexibility is interesting. Both Jordan and Werner were strictly outside rush guys. Neither rusher tallied a sack from an initial inside move. Tank Carradine went outside a majority of the time, but showed a range of versatility going with the inside rush 27% of the time. If you watched Ziggy Ansah, you’re pretty well versed in his utilization of the bull rush to attempt to get to the QB. He doesn’t disappoint here, 50% of his sacks (2) came from the bull rush Okafor was extremely versatile, garnering 11 sacks on an excellent mixture of strength and speed. 36% of his sacks came off bull rushes which shows excellent power. When combined with his speed of getting to the QB, Okafor was often able to overpower his opponent. How Did Their Opponents Contribute? I created a really quick and dirty strength of schedule for the pass rushers. Part sacks allowed by each team’s offensive line and part Sagarin ratings, it’s not perfect but it should give you a relative feeling for the quality of teams/ offensive lines each pass rusher got their sacks against. Thus, the higher number means tougher opponents. Again, don’t pay much mind to Ansah’s numbers, they’re from an extremely small sample size. Use them as a guideline but not gospel. Aside from Ansah, Moore tallied his sacks against the toughest teams. With sacks against Alabama, LSU, and Mississippi State – Moore beat a difficult assortment of O-lines for his sacks. Mingo, with a similar SEC schedule as Moore, got his sacks against a difficult schedule. Is this the reason for his lack of production, is it an excuse, or does it have absolutely nothing to do with it? I’m leaning towards little to do with his lack of production, but the fact that he was able to produce good speed rushes against that schedule is impressive. Both Carradine and Werner’s strength of sacks were in the bottom three in this group. Sacks against lowly Maryland and Wake Forest really dragged down their numbers. By this metric, Werner’s best sacks were against Miami then Florida (UF didn’t get a lot of love due to the 39 sacks they surrendered). Outside of Ansah’s fluky SOS, Okafor tallied his sacks against the strongest opponents on average. Many of the QBs he sacked were not sacked particularly often, making his sacks more “difficult”. How Did Their Team Contribute? I’m not going to comment on this, just explain and post. These are the average amount of rushers and blitzers their teams sent against opposing offensive lines. The idea being, the higher the total rushers and blitzers, the more each rusher was helped by their teammates. Sacks By Down Remember this is part 1 of 2, the second part will be focusing on giving a broader perspective of these pass rushers. That means analyzing their overall effectiveness by snap of rushing the QB, looking at pressures, among other factors. Sacks are certainly not the most important thing when it comes to QBs, but that’s where this analysis is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O23 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Did anyone else become very interested in Gleenon after reading this? I knew he was a kid with a strong arm but going by some of these metrics he stacks up very nicely (better in many respects) with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Did anyone else become very interested in Gleenon after reading this? I knew he was a kid with a strong arm but going by some of these metrics he stacks up very nicely (better in many respects) with the others. Dysert also became interesting considerating he is going in the 4-5th. Wouldn't touch a QB before the 3rd round in this draft. The guys in the mid rounds have just as good a chance as the 1-2 rounders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/27/pass-rushers-pt1/ A Statistical Breakdown of the Top Pass Rushers (Pt. 1, Sacks) Pass rushers are one of the most coveted positions, and thus one of the most scrutinized. We hear about this guy’s stiff hips or that guy’s long arms, I’m not going to talk about that. However, because pass rushers are so important, I’m going to break them into two parts. The first part (this one) is a study on their sacks, just their sacks. Every sack analyzed and broken down into its component parts to see how and why it came about. The next part will break down a sample of their game play and will take into account pressures, holding, QB hits, etc. For now we stick with the sacks to analyze their pass rushing prowess. The goal for this was to analyze each and every sack. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to get game tape on sacks against some of the smaller schools (Murray State). I did get a sufficient sample on most players and I’m happy with the data I got. I’m looking at a large prospect group, so I won’t comment on every player but only the most interesting parts. (Sorry for the small-ish charts, I have too many players and the site isn’t cooperating) How Quickly Did They Get to the QB? I decided to measure the amount of time it took each player to get to the quarterback. With data on ten prospects, I have a good feeling for what these numbers represent. Generally, times greater than 5 seconds are coverage sacks. Times between 3.5 and 5 seconds are the majority of sacks and what you would call “average sacks”. Sacks faster than 3.5 seconds are speed sacks which result from a good jump off the line or just great burst. Mingo, of course, had one of the fastest times in getting to the QB. You could have predicted it by looking at his athleticism on tape or at the combine, but it shows up on his sacks. Even though his number of sacks was limited, none of them were coverage sacks and he got to the QB in 3.63 seconds on average. For the size of Tank Carradine and Bjoern Werner, they got the QB quickly. Both came in at 3.91 seconds and 45% of their sacks would be considered speed sacks. That’s extremely close to Dion Jordan who is considered far more of a “speed” guy than the others. Damontre Moore’s number is disappointing. On average it took him 4.51 seconds to get to the QB and 44.4% of his sacks were from coverage. For a pass-rushing specialist, he wasn’t near the numbers of any other prospects. Don’t read too much into Ansah’s numbers. He had a small sample size and I was even hesitant about putting his numbers up because I think they’re a tad misleading. He did, on average take a long time to get to the QB, you can judge whether you think that’s his rawness or a concern. Okafor’s time is great at 3.56. That time is faster than Mingo who came in roughly 20 lbs lighter than him at the Combine and is largely considered the “speed” specialist. None of Okafor’s 11 sacks were from coverage. This isn’t a fluke of small sample size, Okafor simply got to the QB quickly. How Did They Get There? This is a breakdown of what moves they used to get to the QB. I simplified it down to three categories instead of having a million different moves and counters. Damontre Moore had a wide variety of ways to get to the QB, the majority of his sacks came off going to the inside, but he also used bull and outside rushes to the tune of 22% and 44% respectively. Whether this variety was a detriment to his speed as noted above or he used these moves because he didn’t have a quick outside rush, the rush flexibility is interesting. Both Jordan and Werner were strictly outside rush guys. Neither rusher tallied a sack from an initial inside move. Tank Carradine went outside a majority of the time, but showed a range of versatility going with the inside rush 27% of the time. If you watched Ziggy Ansah, you’re pretty well versed in his utilization of the bull rush to attempt to get to the QB. He doesn’t disappoint here, 50% of his sacks (2) came from the bull rush Okafor was extremely versatile, garnering 11 sacks on an excellent mixture of strength and speed. 36% of his sacks came off bull rushes which shows excellent power. When combined with his speed of getting to the QB, Okafor was often able to overpower his opponent. How Did Their Opponents Contribute? I created a really quick and dirty strength of schedule for the pass rushers. Part sacks allowed by each team’s offensive line and part Sagarin ratings, it’s not perfect but it should give you a relative feeling for the quality of teams/ offensive lines each pass rusher got their sacks against. Thus, the higher number means tougher opponents. Again, don’t pay much mind to Ansah’s numbers, they’re from an extremely small sample size. Use them as a guideline but not gospel. Aside from Ansah, Moore tallied his sacks against the toughest teams. With sacks against Alabama, LSU, and Mississippi State – Moore beat a difficult assortment of O-lines for his sacks. Mingo, with a similar SEC schedule as Moore, got his sacks against a difficult schedule. Is this the reason for his lack of production, is it an excuse, or does it have absolutely nothing to do with it? I’m leaning towards little to do with his lack of production, but the fact that he was able to produce good speed rushes against that schedule is impressive. Both Carradine and Werner’s strength of sacks were in the bottom three in this group. Sacks against lowly Maryland and Wake Forest really dragged down their numbers. By this metric, Werner’s best sacks were against Miami then Florida (UF didn’t get a lot of love due to the 39 sacks they surrendered). Outside of Ansah’s fluky SOS, Okafor tallied his sacks against the strongest opponents on average. Many of the QBs he sacked were not sacked particularly often, making his sacks more “difficult”. How Did Their Team Contribute? I’m not going to comment on this, just explain and post. These are the average amount of rushers and blitzers their teams sent against opposing offensive lines. The idea being, the higher the total rushers and blitzers, the more each rusher was helped by their teammates. Sacks By Down Remember this is part 1 of 2, the second part will be focusing on giving a broader perspective of these pass rushers. That means analyzing their overall effectiveness by snap of rushing the QB, looking at pressures, among other factors. Sacks are certainly not the most important thing when it comes to QBs, but that’s where this analysis is starting. Thanks. Okafor and Carradine just got very interesting Do you have anything to do with this site. Guys put some serious work in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 This was realy impressive research props to the people that put it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 This was realy impressive research props to the people that put it together. Site also has a great stat breakdown on Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Did anyone else become very interested in Gleenon after reading this? I knew he was a kid with a strong arm but going by some of these metrics he stacks up very nicely (better in many respects) with the others. I have to say I was skeptical of Glennon, because I am wary of the Jets taking a qb post-Sanchez where the scouts say "has difficultly in reading defenses" or "makes bad decisions with the pocket collapsing". However I would prefer to sacrafice mobility for arm strength. Glennon appears to have a genuine upside, there are big QB's who succeed in the NFL despite negligible mobility. If you don't have the arm strength you have to be off the charts in other areas to compensate for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Thanks. Okafor and Carradine just got very interesting Do you have anything to do with this site. Guys put some serious work in You're welcome flg ...I have nothing to do with this site but I like how they take the stats past pure analytics and argue the case for each player beyond numbers. I concur on Okafor, I will be very interested to see how he grades out in the coming years. There has been no chatter about him connected to the Jets so I am expecting to see hm in another teams uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I've begun to like Geno less an less. I think I'd rather Barkley out of that group of four QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 I I've begun to like Geno less an less. I think I'd rather Barkley out of that group of four QBs. I don't like Geno or Barkley to me at this point I'm thinking Glennon has the most upside. Nassib has a lot going for him but I think arm strength prevents him from being elite. With the way the league protects quarterbacks today, I think a superbowl win is highly unlikely without a top ten qb unless their mobility puts them over the top. The difficult question is figuring out who much of a draftee's current flaws can be corrected. I'm thinking the ability to read defenses is inate, related to vision and intelligence. Qualitites like footwork and throwing motion may be somewhat more coachable but those who have spent years in the game through high school and some college can maybe shed light on this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 A Metrics Breakdown of Top Pass Rushers: Part 2 By Greg Peshek Is Barkevious Mingo the best pass rusher available in the draft? Photo: williamdavis331 The post I wrote on Second Round Stats (read the original post for refrence) analyzing each top pass rushers’ sacks was met with a chorus of people telling me that sacks are limited in nature and thus not telling of much. In response to that, I’ve analyzed hurries, knockdowns, and sacks. This time though, the data comes from Stats ICE, which has every game involving a BCS team charted for more factors than imaginable. Thus, you can be completely confident that the data you’re looking at is full and not just a sample. Working with the data and at The Sideline View gives me more time to analyze the data and less time charting. Without further delay, here’s my breakdown of the top 5 pass rushers in this class. How Often Did They Get to the QB? A little explanation here. Pressures are considered hurries + knockdowns to give the total effect on the QB. The first stat in the chart is labeled “SPP” and that stands for Snaps Per Pressure. What that tells us is how many snaps it takes for each player to get to the QB. That is, a lower number means that the pass rusher affects the QB more often and is more efficient. SPP combines sacks and pressures, but isn’t weighted towards one or the other. Editor's Note: Updated to reflect correct acronym. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor SPP 9.63 8.50 10.64 7.31 6.49 Pressures 28 31 17 31 29 Sacks 4.5 13 5 11 13.5 Snaps 313 374 234 307 276 One of the most notable things is Alex Okafor’s extremely efficient SPP. That means, on average he affects the quarterback every 6.5 snaps. The average for the entire class, including tier 2, is a PPS of 10. Many scouting reports and pundits have remarked on Okafor’s lack of explosiveness, that may be true, but clearly he’s doing something to get to the QB more often than any other pass rusher. Although many have commented on it, the statistics show that Tank Carradine may have been the most complete pass rusher had he not been injured during the season. His efficiency at getting to the QB was very close to Okafor’s and is extremely impressive given the attention he received. Many may argue he was more efficient due to the presence of Bjorn Werner on the other side, but we’ll get to that a little bit later. Dion Jordan clearly took the fewest snaps rushing the passer, but his lack of pressures is noticeable when compared to Barkevious Mingo. Both have roughly 5 sacks this year, but Mingo managed 28 pressures for a PPS of 9.63. You do have to wonder why Mingo wasn’t able to convert more of his pressures into sacks. He was clearly getting to the quarterback, but wasn’t able to bring him down. It’s not as if the majority of his opponents were slippery dual-threat types, so why was this a problem for him? How Much Help Did They Get? The stat below, EPG stands for Extra Pressures Per Game. It incorporates how often each pass rushers’ teammate’s affected the QB, the number of average rushers on their pressures, and a few other minor factors. The goal is to describe how much help each player got from their teammates. A lower number means their teammate’s provided less pressure and that the pass rusher did more on their own. Avg Rush is the number of rushers each team brought on each play. The number in the bottom row “%Blitz” tells how many of each rusher’s pressures came when their team blitzed. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor EPG 4.41 3.22 2.93 2.99 2.37 Avg Rush 4.08 4.07 3.91 4.28 4.28 % Blitz 25.00% 6.50% 35.00% 22.60% 34.50% Once again Okafor comes out on top. On average he received 2.37 extra pressures per game from his teammates, which means he did more of his work with less help. This is partly due to the fact that Jackson Jeffcoat went down with an injury in the middle of the season and that Texas’ DTs and LBs didn’t provide much push on the QB. Werner, Jordan and Carradine are all hovering in the 2.9-3.2 range, which is just about negligible in comparison. In all 11 pass rushers I analyzed, Carradine’s EPG was ranked 6th. Thus, he received help from an excellent FSU defense but no more or less than any other pass rusher. The reason Werner and Carradine’s EPGs are different is because it takes the other player into account. The fact that Werner got 93.5% of his pressures on four man rushes is interesting to be sure. The amount of help Mingo received was the second most out the entire class. Between Sam Montgomery, Kevin Minter, and LSU’s excellent defense, he received a good amount of help. He obviously has the athletic ability for the NFL, but given his size and abilities, is he going to need to be on a strong defense to truly capitalize on his gifts? How Good Were Their Opponents? Listening to pundits and perusing blogs, you always hear that this guy went up against the best competition or that guy had an easy time. I’ve created a strength of schedule that combines Sagarin ratings and sacks allowed by opposing offensive lines to quantify this. A higher number means they gained their pressures against stronger competition. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor SOS 47.95 38.28 37.94 42.62 55.58 Okafor’s strength of schedule was not only at the top of tier 1, but of all 11 pass rushers I looked at. This may seem counter-intuitive because people would expect SEC pass rushers to have the highest SOS, but many of their pressures came from cupcake FCS schools. The majority of Okafor’s pressures and sacks came against legitimate Big 12 competition. Both Werner and Jordan’s SOS are extremely weak. Jordan’s works out like this due to garnering pressures against bad Washington State and Tennessee Tech teams. While Werner had some quality opposition in Miami, Florida and UNC, games against Boston College, Murray State, and Savannah State really inflated some of his pressure numbers. In total 25% of his total pressures and sacks came against those three teams. Mingo’s SEC credentials garners him the 5th highest strength of schedule among all pass rushers, and the second highest of the 1st tier. Notable offensive lineman he beat for pressures include DJ Fluker of Alabama and Jake Matthews of Texas A&M. When Did They Get Their Pressures? I tried to develop a “clutch” stat to find out which player was a better rusher in important moments in the game. I tried using scoring margins, quarters, and downs, but every combination came out to be relatively similar for every player. So I’m just going to put this chart down that shows what percentage of pressures and sacks came on 3rd and 4th down without comment. You can form your own opinion and if it means anything to you. Percentage of sacks on 3rd and 4th down. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor % Pressures 32.31% 52.27% 68.18% 50.00% 40.00% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I don't like Geno or Barkley to me at this point I'm thinking Glennon has the most upside. Nassib has a lot going for him but I think arm strength prevents him from being elite. With the way the league protects quarterbacks today, I think a superbowl win is highly unlikely without a top ten qb unless their mobility puts them over the top. The difficult question is figuring out who much of a draftee's current flaws can be corrected. I'm thinking the ability to read defenses is inate, related to vision and intelligence. Qualitites like footwork and throwing motion may be somewhat more coachable but those who have spent years in the game through high school and some college can maybe shed light on this ... I can agree with this b/c I've been thinking along the same lines. For over the last 3-4 months I've had in my mind, Geno at 1, Manuel 2 and Bray 3. My reasoning was, well, with Geno, he's kind of the consensus, so he's almost in there by default. But honestly, given that all these guys are long shots anyway....but hypothetically, there will probably be at least one, maybe two that surprise people and turn into good pros...well then I'm going with that "upside" and "potential" thing. So at this point, for me, it would probably be something like this (IMO): 1. Manuel 2. Bray 3. Glennon ...and what's funny is I've been hating on Glennon for 3 months now. But at least there's that huge upside and potential thing. All these guys are going to need at least a year to sit and learn. But at least they have the most impressive physical tools. With that said though, I have to admit how impressive Barkley comes off in all these interviews and sideshows. I also think if there is one guy who could handle the job from Day 1, it's him. He's the only one out of this group imo. The growing pit in my stomach for Geno has continued to grow and grow. I dunno, I can just see this kid totally imploding at the next level. I can see him try real hard, not getting the immediate gratification and then going into a shell. IMO, he doesn't seem (to me...from my outsiders perspective) to have the mental makeup...at all. Plus his build scares me. He has this slight frame and skinny legs. Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Alex Okafor it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 A Metrics Breakdown of Top Pass Rushers: Part 2 By Greg Peshek Is Barkevious Mingo the best pass rusher available in the draft? Photo: williamdavis331 The post I wrote on Second Round Stats (read the original post for refrence) analyzing each top pass rushers’ sacks was met with a chorus of people telling me that sacks are limited in nature and thus not telling of much. In response to that, I’ve analyzed hurries, knockdowns, and sacks. This time though, the data comes from Stats ICE, which has every game involving a BCS team charted for more factors than imaginable. Thus, you can be completely confident that the data you’re looking at is full and not just a sample. Working with the data and at The Sideline View gives me more time to analyze the data and less time charting. Without further delay, here’s my breakdown of the top 5 pass rushers in this class. How Often Did They Get to the QB? A little explanation here. Pressures are considered hurries + knockdowns to give the total effect on the QB. The first stat in the chart is labeled “SPP” and that stands for Snaps Per Pressure. What that tells us is how many snaps it takes for each player to get to the QB. That is, a lower number means that the pass rusher affects the QB more often and is more efficient. SPP combines sacks and pressures, but isn’t weighted towards one or the other. Editor's Note: Updated to reflect correct acronym. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor SPP 9.63 8.50 10.64 7.31 6.49 Pressures 28 31 17 31 29 Sacks 4.5 13 5 11 13.5 Snaps 313 374 234 307 276 One of the most notable things is Alex Okafor’s extremely efficient SPP. That means, on average he affects the quarterback every 6.5 snaps. The average for the entire class, including tier 2, is a PPS of 10. Many scouting reports and pundits have remarked on Okafor’s lack of explosiveness, that may be true, but clearly he’s doing something to get to the QB more often than any other pass rusher. Although many have commented on it, the statistics show that Tank Carradine may have been the most complete pass rusher had he not been injured during the season. His efficiency at getting to the QB was very close to Okafor’s and is extremely impressive given the attention he received. Many may argue he was more efficient due to the presence of Bjorn Werner on the other side, but we’ll get to that a little bit later. Dion Jordan clearly took the fewest snaps rushing the passer, but his lack of pressures is noticeable when compared to Barkevious Mingo. Both have roughly 5 sacks this year, but Mingo managed 28 pressures for a PPS of 9.63. You do have to wonder why Mingo wasn’t able to convert more of his pressures into sacks. He was clearly getting to the quarterback, but wasn’t able to bring him down. It’s not as if the majority of his opponents were slippery dual-threat types, so why was this a problem for him? How Much Help Did They Get? The stat below, EPG stands for Extra Pressures Per Game. It incorporates how often each pass rushers’ teammate’s affected the QB, the number of average rushers on their pressures, and a few other minor factors. The goal is to describe how much help each player got from their teammates. A lower number means their teammate’s provided less pressure and that the pass rusher did more on their own. Avg Rush is the number of rushers each team brought on each play. The number in the bottom row “%Blitz” tells how many of each rusher’s pressures came when their team blitzed. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor EPG 4.41 3.22 2.93 2.99 2.37 Avg Rush 4.08 4.07 3.91 4.28 4.28 % Blitz 25.00% 6.50% 35.00% 22.60% 34.50% Once again Okafor comes out on top. On average he received 2.37 extra pressures per game from his teammates, which means he did more of his work with less help. This is partly due to the fact that Jackson Jeffcoat went down with an injury in the middle of the season and that Texas’ DTs and LBs didn’t provide much push on the QB. Werner, Jordan and Carradine are all hovering in the 2.9-3.2 range, which is just about negligible in comparison. In all 11 pass rushers I analyzed, Carradine’s EPG was ranked 6th. Thus, he received help from an excellent FSU defense but no more or less than any other pass rusher. The reason Werner and Carradine’s EPGs are different is because it takes the other player into account. The fact that Werner got 93.5% of his pressures on four man rushes is interesting to be sure. The amount of help Mingo received was the second most out the entire class. Between Sam Montgomery, Kevin Minter, and LSU’s excellent defense, he received a good amount of help. He obviously has the athletic ability for the NFL, but given his size and abilities, is he going to need to be on a strong defense to truly capitalize on his gifts? How Good Were Their Opponents? Listening to pundits and perusing blogs, you always hear that this guy went up against the best competition or that guy had an easy time. I’ve created a strength of schedule that combines Sagarin ratings and sacks allowed by opposing offensive lines to quantify this. A higher number means they gained their pressures against stronger competition. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor SOS 47.95 38.28 37.94 42.62 55.58 Okafor’s strength of schedule was not only at the top of tier 1, but of all 11 pass rushers I looked at. This may seem counter-intuitive because people would expect SEC pass rushers to have the highest SOS, but many of their pressures came from cupcake FCS schools. The majority of Okafor’s pressures and sacks came against legitimate Big 12 competition. Both Werner and Jordan’s SOS are extremely weak. Jordan’s works out like this due to garnering pressures against bad Washington State and Tennessee Tech teams. While Werner had some quality opposition in Miami, Florida and UNC, games against Boston College, Murray State, and Savannah State really inflated some of his pressure numbers. In total 25% of his total pressures and sacks came against those three teams. Mingo’s SEC credentials garners him the 5th highest strength of schedule among all pass rushers, and the second highest of the 1st tier. Notable offensive lineman he beat for pressures include DJ Fluker of Alabama and Jake Matthews of Texas A&M. When Did They Get Their Pressures? I tried to develop a “clutch” stat to find out which player was a better rusher in important moments in the game. I tried using scoring margins, quarters, and downs, but every combination came out to be relatively similar for every player. So I’m just going to put this chart down that shows what percentage of pressures and sacks came on 3rd and 4th down without comment. You can form your own opinion and if it means anything to you. Percentage of sacks on 3rd and 4th down. Mingo Werner Jordan Carradine Okafor % Pressures 32.31% 52.27% 68.18% 50.00% 40.00% Wow It sure looks like whoever takes Okafor in the 2nd, maybe even the 3rd, is going to get a hell of a pass rusher cheap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 I can agree with this b/c I've been thinking along the same lines. For over the last 3-4 months I've had in my mind, Geno at 1, Manuel 2 and Bray 3. My reasoning was, well, with Geno, he's kind of the consensus, so he's almost in there by default. But honestly, given that all these guys are long shots anyway....but hypothetically, there will probably be at least one, maybe two that surprise people and turn into good pros...well then I'm going with that "upside" and "potential" thing. So at this point, for me, it would probably be something like this (IMO): 1. Manuel 2. Bray 3. Glennon ...and what's funny is I've been hating on Glennon for 3 months now. But at least there's that huge upside and potential thing. All these guys are going to need at least a year to sit and learn. But at least they have the most impressive physical tools. With that said though, I have to admit how impressive Barkley comes off in all these interviews and sideshows. I also think if there is one guy who could handle the job from Day 1, it's him. He's the only one out of this group imo. The growing pit in my stomach for Geno has continued to grow and grow. I dunno, I can just see this kid totally imploding at the next level. I can see him try real hard, not getting the immediate gratification and then going into a shell. IMO, he doesn't seem (to me...from my outsiders perspective) to have the mental makeup...at all. Plus his build scares me. He has this slight frame and skinny legs. Meh... It's fasinating trying to figure this out ... isn't it ? I was always on the fence about Geno but like you I was quite skeptical of Glennon. Glennon's upside is maybe Ben Roethlisberger his down side is Dave Brown. I suspect they all may lack the tools to make it but Glennon is worth a third round pick if you believe the need to overdraft qb's ... Playing armchair GM, I would likely draft one mid round qb and one late round qb .. Sean Renfree comes to mind for a late round qb ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Alex Okafor it is. I agree, damn exciting when you look at in detail ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j4jets Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Too long. I can be very productive for my company if I skip this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangrene Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Too long. I can be very productive for my company if I skip this thread. Me too and I'm self employed : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickJetFan Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Too long. I can be very productive for my company if I skip this thread. are you freakin kidding me. what the hell is this happy math club horse sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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