HessStation's 1st Round Mock by Team

[HessStation]

This is just how it worked itself out as I went through each team & pick. 

 

1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles QB, UCF

2. St. Louis Rams: Greg Robinson OT, Auburn 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney DE, S. Carolina

4. Cleveland Browns: Teddy Bridgewater QB, Louisville

5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins WR, Clemson

6. Atlanta Falcons: Kahlil Mack OLB, Buffalo 

7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Jake Matthews OT, Texas A&M

8. Minnesota Vikings: Derek Carr QB, Fresno State

9. Buffalo Bills: Eric Ebron TE, North Carolina

10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert CB, Oklahoma State

11. Tennessee Titans: Taylor Lewan OT, Michigan

12. New York Giants: Mike Evans WR, Texas A&M

13. St. Louis Rams: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

14. Chicago Bears: Aaron Donald DT, Pittsburgh

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State

16. Dallas Cowboys: Bradley Roby CB, Ohio State

17. Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Lee, WR, USC 

18. New York Jets: Anthony Barr OLB/DE, UCLA

19. Miami Dolphins: Zack Martin OT, Notre Dame

20. Arizona Cardinals: Johnny Manziel QB, Texas A&M

21. Green Bay Packers: Jace Amaro TE, Texas Tech

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Jason Verrett CB, TCU

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Brandin Cooks WR, Oregon State

24. Cincinnati Bengals: CJ Mosley OLB, Alabama

25. San Diego Chargers: Dee Ford OLB/DE, Clemson

26. Cleveland Browns: Calvin Prior S, Louisville 

27. New Orleans Saints: Jeremiah Attaochu OLB/DE Georgia Tech

28. Carolina Panthers: Odell Beckham Jr. WR, LSU

29. New England Patriots: Ra'Shede Hagaman DT, Minnesota

30. San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Fuller CB, Virginia Tech

31. Denver Broncos: Tim Jernigan DT, FSU

32. Seattle Seahawks: Jordan Matthews WR, Vanderbilt

[nycdan]

I'd be surprised if the Bills went Ebron with Evans still on the board. 

 

And you get +1 for NOT taking Manziel at 18.  Barr is probably BAP there.  I could dig that.

[JustInFudge]

Interesting...is Barr the guy you want for the Jets or is that who you think falls to them and they just cant pass based on the tape and where he lies on their big board?

 

It would be really funny if the Vinkings took Ponder and Carr, they're game is like spitting image. 

[Greenseed4]

Not going to lie.  I hated this mock.  I hated the idea of taking Barr (a "project" player) over a WR like OBJ.  But then I read this:

 

 

 

 

How Quickly Did They Get to the QB?

 

Measured here is the time from snap to sack for each pass rushers. Generally, times greater than 5 seconds are coverage sacks. Times between 3.5 and 5 seconds are the majority of sacks and what you would call “average sacks”. Sacks faster than 3.5 seconds are speed sacks which result from a good jump off the line or just great burst.

 

  

- Technically the fastest time belongs to Clowney at a blistering 3.28 seconds. However, remember that this is only on three sacks and is just for a quick reference on his play this year. His 2012 sacks were definitely slower at an average of 3.93 seconds. Compared to the speed rushers, this is slow – but compares favorably to guys like Tank Carradine and Werner from last year’s class. We can see that 30.8% of his sacks came after 5 seconds, the highest percentage in this group.

 

- On a significant number of sacks, Michael Sam edges out the rest of the field for the fastest sack time at 3.36 seconds. His combine numbers weren’t spectacular, so we have to look to other metrics and the tape for the discrepancy. Sam’s teammate, Kony Ealy is in a virtual tie for the top tie at 3.38 seconds.

 

- Dee Ford registered the slowest time among this group, with a snap to sack time of 4.26 seconds. This isn’t a case of one or two outliers pulling up the average, but the fact that the 73% of his sacks were simply average.

 

- Barr’s high sack time of 3.52 seconds serves as confirmation rather than a revelation. It’d be more surprising, and worrying, if his time getting to the quarterback was in the high 3.0s. He has the highest percentage of speed sacks in the group, racking up hits on the QB under 3.5 seconds on 78% of his sacks.

 

- The biggest revelation in this group is Kareem Martin’s excellent time of 3.61 seconds. That’s not something you usually see for a defensive end pushing 270+ lbs. True defensive ends are usually in the 3.8+ seconds range. In addition, he didn’t have a single coverage sack – getting to the QB under 5 seconds on every sack.

 

 

How Did They Get There?

 

  

- Earlier I noted Sam’s quick time to the QB, we can see a possible explanation for that here. Every one of his sacks was on an outside rush which likely led to sacks where he only quickly and definitely beat the tackle around the corner.

 

- While Ealy has a similar time to Sam, his variety of pass rush moves doesn’t leave as much to be desired. Of the group, he went to the bull rush – utilizing his strength 50% of the time. The bull rush is typically the slowest way to the QB so his ability to get their quickly while utilizing that rush makes his quick time all the more impressive.

 

- Barr and Mack have been often compared. Both had quality times getting to the QB, and both utilized the outside move more than 60% of the time. That’s not bad in itself, but when you go and watch their entire pass rush repertoire you want to make sure that’s not the only thing working for them.

 

- With arguably the most diverse variety of rushes (outside of Clowney ’13), Dee Ford’s varied attempts may slightly explain his slower time. With equal sacks coming from bull and inside rushes, he displayed an ability to get the QB consistently. However, Kareem Martin had a similarly diverse set of sacks and still had a fast snap to sack time.

 

- Attaochu, who fits more as a rush linebacker garnered his hits on the QB on outside and inside rushes rather than going right at the offensive lineman. This is likely how he’ll have to attack at the next level if his weight or strength doesn’t improve.

 

 

How Did Their Opponents Contribute?

 

I created a really quick and dirty strength of schedule (sack?) for the pass rushers. Part sacks allowed by each team’s offensive line and part Sagarin ratings, it’s not perfect but it should give you a relative feeling for the quality of teams/ offensive lines each pass rusher got their sacks against. The higher number means tougher opponents.

 

  

- The first thing I should note is that this group’s SOS are much more tightly grouped than last year’s class. It’s not the fault of the metric, but rather a group that did well against similar opponents.

 

- Khalil Mack is naturally going to have a low strength of sack playing at Buffalo and indeed comes in lowest of the group with a SOS of 23.09. However, more important is that 37.5% of his sacks were unblocked – the highest in the group. Suddenly that could cast some doubts on his quick sack time – was he beating blockers soundly or just on the receiving end of some good luck?

 

- For all the positive things I’ve written about Kareem Martin so far, his SOS is a paltry 38.57, racking up his sacks against the weaker ACC teams. On the positive side he wasn’t on the receiving end of many unblocked gimmies.

 

- Dee Ford and his sacks against SEC teams garners the highest SOS in the group. However, Trent Murphy did damage against some quality PAC-12 teams that puts his strength of sack in the same realm. Both were similar in the amount of unblocked sacks they got.

 

- Clowney has gotten a bit of special treatment here. He’s got two years of data and I’m selectively choosing data to look at. If you’re going to find one thing interesting about Clowney, is that he didn’t gather a single unblocked sack in his 2012 campaign where he got to the QB often. He had to work for those sacks and did well doing so.

 

 

How Did Their Team Contribute?

 

This chart requires a bit of explaining. Rush+Blitz represents the average number of players rushing the QB on each player’s sacks. The higher the number, the more players a team brought and presumably, the more difficult it was to block the total number of rushers.

 

Percent of Extra Pressure tells the percentage of sacks in which another player (or multiple players) pressured the QB before the pass rusher accrued the sack. It stands to reason that the more pressure on the QB, the easier it is to pick up the sack.

 

  

- Right off the bat, Clowney’s 2012 sack campaign looks like it received the most total help from his teammates. A whopping 69% of his sacks came with pressure from a teammate, notably current NFL player Devin Taylor.

 

- On the other hand, Anthony Barr only saw an average of 3.56 teammates rushing the passer and only received pressure help on 11% of his sacks.

 

- Trent Murphy had a lower number of rushers to aid him, but those fewer rushers still hurried the QB on 40% of Murphy’s total sacks.

 

- Discounting Clowney’s three sacks, Ealy was the only player who didn’t have any pressure applied by teammates. With a close to average 4.13 rushers, you could say Ealy was the player who was most responsible for his own sacks.

 

Like I wrote in the beginning, there’s a wealth of pass rush data that can be gleaned from play on the field. I’ve already written too much here, but you can follow on Twitter @NU_Gap for some of the things that didn’t make it to the piece such as number of steps taken to the QB.

 

 

Barr is an animal with his ticker in the up-direction.  He gets un-assisted sacks (meaning no other pressure from other teammates), faster than anyone in this group, and does so working through blocks on 100% of his sacks. 

[HessStation]

Interesting...is Barr the guy you want for the Jets or is that who you think falls to them and they just cant pass based on the tape and where he lies on their big board?

 

It would be really funny if the Vinkings took Ponder and Carr, they're game is like spitting image. 

 

No I really had no agenda in mind to get Barr. I just tried to look at team needs and give that team who I thought might be the BPA and Barr kind of slid along the board. It just happened that the top half had two edge rushers in front of him (Clowney and Mack) then when I got to the Vikings (where I almost put him) I ran into a lot of 43 teams. I was thinking Barr's kind of a tweener, really too small to play conventional DE....15 reps was in the back of my mind.....The only 34 teams from Vikings to Jets were Steelers and Ravens who sorta put toughness as a premium and maybe some other, bigger needs. He kind of just fell to the Jets and I figured had to pull the trigger there.

[JustInFudge]

No I really had no agenda in mind to get Barr. I just tried to look at team needs and give that team who I thought might be the BPA and Barr kind of slid along the board. It just happened that the top half had two edge rushers in front of him (Clowney and Mack) then when I got to the Vikings (where I almost put him) I ran into a lot of 43 teams. I was thinking Barr's kind of a tweener, really too small to play conventional DE....15 reps was in the back of my mind.....The only 34 teams from Vikings to Jets were Steelers and Ravens who sorta put toughness as a premium and maybe some other, bigger needs. He kind of just fell to the Jets and I figured had to pull the trigger there.

 

Fair enough...I thought you were big on Cooks so I found that to be surprising.  But Barr would be a beast in this defense.

[nycdan]

Looking again, you have one minor error.  CJ Mosley is an ILB.  I think he would be a good fit on the Jets but I don't think it's a position of need as much as others so I don't see us looking there.  But there are so many guys in the 2nd half of the round that I think could be nice picks that I could really dig trading down a bit.

 

Ford, Cooks, Beckham, Pryor.  Heck, Martin - a solid OG who could slide over to LT in a pinch wouldn't be so bad either although we'd probably have to take him at 18 and piss the Fins off in the process. 

[Jetlife33]

Props for not taking Manziel at 18. Barr could be a real possibility for gang green come May.

[fishing92070]

Anyone who thinks the Jets would not take Manziel at 18 is nuts. Woody Johnson would bust a nut if he was there. All about selling tickets.

[T0mShane]

How is Blake Bortles any different than Blaine Gabbert?

The entire and only reason he's being mocked to the Texans is because everyone thinks Bill O'Brien wants a tall white QB.

[HessStation]

How is Blake Bortles any different than Blaine Gabbert?

The entire and only reason he's being mocked to the Texans is because everyone thinks Bill O'Brien wants a tall white QB.

Thanks for your support Tom.  I honestly tried to remain as objective as possible with every pick. 

 

Looking it all over, I could really see St. Louis in a position to trade back if the Texans go QB. Or they may just take Clowney, knowing they could fill need at 13. But I don't like doing trades bc then it just gets stupid.  

[T0mShane]

Thanks for your support Tom. I honestly tried to remain as objective as possible with every pick.

Looking it all over, I could really see St. Louis in a position to trade back if the Texans go QB. Or they may just take Clowney, knowing they could fill need at 13. But I don't like doing trades bc then it just gets stupid.

I'm not sh*tting on your mock. I like it. I'm just wondering where all the Bortles love is coming from.

[NYJetsVets91]

Honestly I'd be happy with Barr, I think he'll land somewhere in the 11-20 slot.

[LionelRichie]

How is Blake Bortles any different than Blaine Gabbert?

The entire and only reason he's being mocked to the Texans is because everyone thinks Bill O'Brien wants a tall white QB.

 

Bortles is a great pick for Houston....in Rd 2.  

[HessStation]

I'm not sh*tting on your mock. I like it. I'm just wondering where all the Bortles love is coming from.

 

 

Bortles is a great pick for Houston....in Rd 2.  

 

Honestly I said the same thing back in like, December. That I liked Bortles a lot...in the second round. But I have a feeling it'll be either him or Bridgewater. 

[T0mShane]

Honestly I said the same thing back in like, December. That I liked Bortles a lot...in the second round. But I have a feeling it'll be either him or Bridgewater.

What they should do:

Pats receive: Andre Johnson

Texans receive: Ryan Mallet and Pats third round pick

[SenorGato]

What they should do:

Pats receive: Andre Johnson

Texans receive: Ryan Mallet and Pats third round pick

 

This actually makes alot of sense for both teams. I think Mallett is going to be a quality QB. 

[SenorGato]

Barr would be fine by me. Not really sold on any one player now except Clowney, Lewan, Watkins, Mack, and Bridgewater. There's a bunch of players outside of that group that are probably fine to settle on. 

[Lizard King]

Props on this mock. Barr would play to his strengths here

[LionelRichie]

this is a really nice job with the mock.    couple of thoughts: 

 

1 - I don't see bortles going #1.   he just doesn't look like a can't miss prospect to me.  

 

2 - what do you think about Cleveland picking Watkins to pair with Gordon (and they already have cameron at TE)?   They could go into '14 with Hoyer and possibly Vick or Sanchez and have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.  

 

3 - Minnesota may be able to get Carr in rd 2 - not sure why they'd use a top 10 pick on him.  

 

4 - love him or hate him, johnny football is going in the top 20

 

5 - I don't see Amaro going in rd 1.    I don't know all that much about him but i saw a little at the combine and he looked like he didn't want to be there.  

 

6 - Jets:  with all of the wr in this draft I hope the Jets take 2-3 that have a chance to start.   Beckham, Landry, Matthews, cooks - I don't even care which one they get but they need to use their first pick on one of the top 5 or 6 wr's.   If the 'value' isn't there at 18 then move down a handful of picks and grab on of the above.     Unless Barr is the next Derrick Thomas this team needs WR help in the worst way.  

[HessStation]

this is a really nice job with the mock.    couple of thoughts: 

 

1 - I don't see bortles going #1.   he just doesn't look like a can't miss prospect to me.  

 

2 - what do you think about Cleveland picking Watkins to pair with Gordon (and they already have cameron at TE)?   They could go into '14 with Hoyer and possibly Vick or Sanchez and have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.  

 

3 - Minnesota may be able to get Carr in rd 2 - not sure why they'd use a top 10 pick on him.  

 

4 - love him or hate him, johnny football is going in the top 20

 

5 - I don't see Amaro going in rd 1.    I don't know all that much about him but i saw a little at the combine and he looked like he didn't want to be there.  

 

6 - Jets:  with all of the wr in this draft I hope the Jets take 2-3 that have a chance to start.   Beckham, Landry, Matthews, cooks - I don't even care which one they get but they need to use their first pick on one of the top 5 or 6 wr's.   If the 'value' isn't there at 18 then move down a handful of picks and grab on of the above.     Unless Barr is the next Derrick Thomas this team needs WR help in the worst way.  

 

I agree on Bortles. Actually, looking at Tom's mock on the main board, I realized I would probably be least excited about Bortles at 18, out of the 3-4 first round graded QBs. But I wanted to remain objective and not go too much on personal feelings. I also tried to throw in a typical reach like Carr and, to me, Ebron, going a little earlier than maybe expected. Funny you say that about Amaro, bc, even though I think he'll probably turn out the best TE in the class, his Combine was solid but a little bit meh (4.74 40). I could totally see him late first to mid-late second. Agree on WRs, hoping the pick two good ones early.

[T0mShane]

I agree on Bortles. Actually, looking at Tom's mock on the main board, I realized I would probably be least excited about Bortles at 18, out of the 3-4 first round graded QBs. But I wanted to remain objective and not go too much on personal feelings. I also tried to throw in a typical reach like Carr and, to me, Ebron, going a little earlier than maybe expected. Funny you say that about Amaro, bc, even though I think he'll probably turn out the best TE in the class, his Combine was solid but a little bit meh (4.74 40). I could totally see him late first to mid-late second. Agree on WRs, hoping the pick two good ones early.

IMO, I think Ebron can be very good, but I think Amaro is going to be the more consistent of the two. Ebron's attitude scares me a little bit, like he's entitled a a bit of a diva. It's hard to do the dirty work of a TE if you think you're a star wideout.

[Jetknowledge]

No I really had no agenda in mind to get Barr. I just tried to look at team needs and give that team who I thought might be the BPA and Barr kind of slid along the board. It just happened that the top half had two edge rushers in front of him (Clowney and Mack) then when I got to the Vikings (where I almost put him) I ran into a lot of 43 teams. I was thinking Barr's kind of a tweener, really too small to play conventional DE....15 reps was in the back of my mind.....The only 34 teams from Vikings to Jets were Steelers and Ravens who sorta put toughness as a premium and maybe some other, bigger needs. He kind of just fell to the Jets and I figured had to pull the trigger there.

I think the steelers would leap at barr seeing they're aiming for a younger defense but if we take him can he cover? We do see teams that like to use tight ends especially if the bills take ebron, which I hate to say they should.