Bent's Game Analysis

[SoFlaJets]

BGA – Fitz like a glove

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s solid start to the season continued, as he threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns and marched the Jets down the field for two fourth quarter scoring drives to ice the game.

Last week, I came up with a definition for an NFL quarterback’s equivalent of a “quality start” – 60% completions and more touchdowns than interceptions – and Fitzpatrick has achieved that twice in two games. Geno Smith did it once in 2013 and once in 2014, with a string of 23 consecutive games without one in between. To give some further context to that “Quality Start” stat, Chad Pennington did it approximately once in every three games in his career, Vinny Testaverde did it seven times in the 1998 regular season and Mark Sanchez did it nine times in his Jets career, plus three more in the postseason.

While he might not have Smith’s upside, maybe Fitzpatrick is the ideal quarterback for this team as currently constituted. It’s going to be interesting to see how he’ll handle any adversity, but so far his consistent play has been a settling influence.

[bostonmajet]

What - this guy is off his rocker.  Hasn't he been reading this site?

Fitz is by and far the worst QB we have ever had.  Everyone knows that.

Wait, no, sorry, Mark Sanchez was by and far the worst QB we have ever had, right?

Okay, I am confused, which one is worse? Anyway, clearly Fitz sucks this analysis is crap.

[JetBlue]

BGA – Fitz like a glove

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s solid start to the season continued, as he threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns and marched the Jets down the field for two fourth quarter scoring drives to ice the game.

Last week, I came up with a definition for an NFL quarterback’s equivalent of a “quality start” – 60% completions and more touchdowns than interceptions – and Fitzpatrick has achieved that twice in two games. Geno Smith did it once in 2013 and once in 2014, with a string of 23 consecutive games without one in between. To give some further context to that “Quality Start” stat, Chad Pennington did it approximately once in every three games in his career, Vinny Testaverde did it seven times in the 1998 regular season and Mark Sanchez did it nine times in his Jets career, plus three more in the postseason.

While he might not have Smith’s upside, maybe Fitzpatrick is the ideal quarterback for this team as currently constituted. It’s going to be interesting to see how he’ll handle any adversity, but so far his consistent play has been a settling influence.

I totally agree with you and have been and still am a supporter of Smith to a degree (in the fact that I would have liked to see what he could have down with this offense; water under the bridge now).    Fitz is showing his command of the offense and his ability to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage.  We kept hearing all night about Luck and his hard count, and changing plays at the line of scrimmage, but Fitz showed he was no slouch in that department. 

I also believe that the chain of events that lead to Fitz starting may be a blessing in disguise for Geno as for the first time in his young career, he can actually sit, watch and learn from a true PROFESSIONAL QUARTERBACK.   He can learn to be half as savvy as Fitz, he will have a future in this league, whether it is with the Jets or some other team. 

[prime21]

Fitz puts in the work and handles himself with class. Geno, which I still have a little hope for,  is immature and has been involved in too many stupid incidents.  Geno can learn on and off the field from Fitz.  The way this team is built we need a QB manager which Geno is not.  Hopefully one day he can be but right now I like Fitz at the helm.

[bostonmajet]

I totally agree with you and have been and still am a supporter of Smith to a degree (in the fact that I would have liked to see what he could have down with this offense; water under the bridge now).    Fitz is showing his command of the offense and his ability to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage.  We kept hearing all night about Luck and his hard count, and changing plays at the line of scrimmage, but Fitz showed he was no slouch in that department. 

I also believe that the chain of events that lead to Fitz starting may be a blessing in disguise for Geno as for the first time in his young career, he can actually sit, watch and learn from a true PROFESSIONAL QUARTERBACK.   He can learn to be half as savvy as Fitz, he will have a future in this league, whether it is with the Jets or some other team. 

Sorry, I don't believe in Geno (hey maybe he proves me wrong).  Geno is by far the better athlete with the strong arm.  Geno's two problems IMO is that he doesn't read defenses well and is too slow on his progressions, and he is not a leader/team guy.  It would be nice if he would use this incident and the time to fix both of those, but look at him on the sidelines.

1. He is moping during every Jets win.  He puts himself before the team and the win.  Marshall said "it isn't about statistics, its about the team winning" (or something like that); maybe that is just the winning (or his 100yd 1TD game), but Geno doesn't even pretend to be happy about the win.

2. When you see him on the sideline, he isn't talking to the OC or Fitz.  When the OC and Fitz are talking, he isn't looking over their shoulders.  It is like Sanchez at Philly - did you see the shot of Brandord on the tablet talking to the OC while Sanchez was sitting next to him, starring into space, listening to his ipod?  Geno isn't going to learn to read defenses and how to prepare for a game from Fitz without talking to him.  Isn't it McDoggle that is always around Revis during practice and the games? that is how you learn.

[SouthernJet]

BGA – Fitz like a glove

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s solid start to the season continued, as he threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns and marched the Jets down the field for two fourth quarter scoring drives to ice the game.

Last week, I came up with a definition for an NFL quarterback’s equivalent of a “quality start” – 60% completions and more touchdowns than interceptions – and Fitzpatrick has achieved that twice in two games. Geno Smith did it once in 2013 and once in 2014, with a string of 23 consecutive games without one in between. To give some further context to that “Quality Start” stat, Chad Pennington did it approximately once in every three games in his career, Vinny Testaverde did it seven times in the 1998 regular season and Mark Sanchez did it nine times in his Jets career, plus three more in the postseason.

While he might not have Smith’s upside, maybe Fitzpatrick is the ideal quarterback for this team as currently constituted. It’s going to be interesting to see how he’ll handle any adversity, but so far his consistent play has been a settling influence.

Nice read, but 'Smith's upside'? Sorry, I see none with his inability to go thru Progression reads past Primary WR. 

[SoFlaJets]

I always talk about the strangeness of how some teams become champions, I have seen it dozens of times over these 50 years of watching this game of football. The interception that happens at the right time from the tipped ball that is caught by your team and leads to a win. A penalty flag thrown that saves you from a big play and a possible momentum changer. The fumbled ball at the goal line after a 9:55 drive that is recovered by the best CB in the game. The TD call on a QB sneak that institutes a change in the way the game is called in Seattle in 1998. The tuck rule, Franco Harris, the millionaire QB who thinks he's a thug and tells the bigger, hungrier guy to stuff it, I ain't paying you the $500 I owe you and then proceeds to get his jaw jacked up and makes a more mature player the starter. To BE a championship team you NEED the weird stuff to happen FOR you and not against you. This 2015 Jets team is playing with the Mojo. I hope it continues.

[JetBlue]

Sorry, I don't believe in Geno (hey maybe he proves me wrong).  Geno is by far the better athlete with the strong arm.  Geno's two problems IMO is that he doesn't read defenses well and is too slow on his progressions, and he is not a leader/team guy.  It would be nice if he would use this incident and the time to fix both of those, but look at him on the sidelines.

1. He is moping during every Jets win.  He puts himself before the team and the win.  Marshall said "it isn't about statistics, its about the team winning" (or something like that); maybe that is just the winning (or his 100yd 1TD game), but Geno doesn't even pretend to be happy about the win.

2. When you see him on the sideline, he isn't talking to the OC or Fitz.  When the OC and Fitz are talking, he isn't looking over their shoulders.  It is like Sanchez at Philly - did you see the shot of Brandord on the tablet talking to the OC while Sanchez was sitting next to him, starring into space, listening to his ipod?  Geno isn't going to learn to read defenses and how to prepare for a game from Fitz without talking to him.  Isn't it McDoggle that is always around Revis during practice and the games? that is how you learn.

Maybe you are right, I really have not been paying that much attention to the sidelines. Than again how much have you really seen of Geno on the sidelines??  30 seconds? Seriously Man, you have no idea what he is saying or not saying to Fitz during the games, in the locker room, in classrooms, at practice etc.  I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are correct in your observations; it that is the case, then Geno is wasting a perfect opportunity.  I guess time will tell.  

[Snell41]

Smith goes nowhere near this team unless Fitz significantly regresses. I wanted to see what Geno could do with this talent, but he blew that over $600 and a whole lot of immaturity. The offense clearly likes Fitz. Unless there's an injury or a major regression there's just no way Geno plays another down as a Jet.

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[JetBlue]

Fitz puts in the work and handles himself with class. Geno, which I still have a little hope for,  is immature and has been involved in too many stupid incidents.  Geno can learn on and off the field from Fitz.  The way this team is built we need a QB manager which Geno is not.  Hopefully one day he can be but right now I like Fitz at the helm.

If you believe people can grow, mature and get better, then you can hope that Geno gets it and has been humbled by this experience. If you don't, then Geno is a lost cause to you.  

[SoFlaJets]

Nice read, but 'Smith's upside'? Sorry, I see none with his inability to go thru Progression reads past Primary WR. 

I hope we never have to suffer through watching Geno Smith taking another snap from Nick Mangold with real bullets flying EVER again. I don't care what ANYBODY says about how he was "taking control, and making strides" to me, he will always be the worst QB in the game the 2 years he was the starter here.

[bostonmajet]

Maybe you are right, I really have not been paying that much attention to the sidelines. Than again how much have you really seen of Geno on the sidelines??  30 seconds? Seriously Man, you have no idea what he is saying or not saying to Fitz during the games, in the locker room, in classrooms, at practice etc.  I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are correct in your observations; it that is the case, then Geno is wasting a perfect opportunity.  I guess time will tell.  

It is just a feeling I have.  Could easily be wrong.  And, if something happens to Fitz, I hope I am wrong.  I hear all the time about the DBs hanging around Revis and the receivers hanging around Marshall and Decker; never hear anything positive about Geno; of course, with some of the worst media - that could just be them hating too.

Here is to hoping that you are right and I am wrong...

[rick34125]

I wouldn't necessarily call a "quality start" 60% completion and 2/1 touchdown/interception ratio. This is the expectation for every nfl starter. If he's not playing at this level, the team will be looking for another QB.

[bostonmajet]

I wouldn't necessarily call a "quality start" 60% completion and 2/1 touchdown/interception ratio. This is the expectation for every nfl starter. If he's not playing at this level, the team will be looking for another QB.

I don't think anyone in the FO, media, or even fans (even the pro Fitz ones) think that Fitz is our future.  We need to get/grow a franchise QB.

I think the point is that this is was is expected from (at a minimum) an NFL QB.  A team can win a lot of games (especially without D) with a QB playing at that pace.

[JetBlue]

I wouldn't necessarily call a "quality start" 60% completion and 2/1 touchdown/interception ratio. This is the expectation for every nfl starter. If he's not playing at this level, the team will be looking for another QB.

If we get 32 TDs and 16 Int (with most not being the back breaking kind) along with 60% completion and an average of about 220-240 yards a game, I think everyone here will take that. 

[AFJF]

BGA – Fitz like a glove

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s solid start to the season continued, as he threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns and marched the Jets down the field for two fourth quarter scoring drives to ice the game.

Last week, I came up with a definition for an NFL quarterback’s equivalent of a “quality start” – 60% completions and more touchdowns than interceptions – and Fitzpatrick has achieved that twice in two games. Geno Smith did it once in 2013 and once in 2014, with a string of 23 consecutive games without one in between. To give some further context to that “Quality Start” stat, Chad Pennington did it approximately once in every three games in his career, Vinny Testaverde did it seven times in the 1998 regular season and Mark Sanchez did it nine times in his Jets career, plus three more in the postseason.

While he might not have Smith’s upside, maybe Fitzpatrick is the ideal quarterback for this team as currently constituted. It’s going to be interesting to see how he’ll handle any adversity, but so far his consistent play has been a settling influence.

I don't know who Brent is, but apparently he and I were somewhat on the same page regarding 60% comp and more TD's than INT's..just posted this to the front page.

http://www.jetnation.com/2015/09/22/fitzpatricks-efficiency-best-for-jets-since-favre/

[rick34125]

If we get 32 TDs and 16 Int (with most not being the back breaking kind) along with 60% completion and an average of about 220-240 yards a game, I think everyone here will take that. 

For sure. I'm not complaining. Just don't see fitzpatrick as a "quality starter".

[JetBlue]

For sure. I'm not complaining. Just don't see fitzpatrick as a "quality starter".

Well if he puts up those numbers what would you call him?  

[AFJF]

For sure. I'm not complaining. Just don't see fitzpatrick as a "quality starter".

I guess it all just boils down to each person's definition of quality.  I think in this offense, Fitz could be what I would consider to be quality.  Making good decisions for the most part, even the INT was a ball he heaved up to give Marshall  a shot at a 50/50 ball which I can't complain about.  He's been good...I'll take it.

[JetBlue]

Smith goes nowhere near this team unless Fitz significantly regresses. I wanted to see what Geno could do with this talent, but he blew that over $600 and a whole lot of immaturity. The offense clearly likes Fitz. Unless there's an injury or a major regression there's just no way Geno plays another down as a Jet.

 

 

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Hopefully he won't have to, but if he does, I hope he uses his time on the sidelines productively and actually watch how a professional qb goes about his business. 

[rick34125]

Well if he puts up those numbers what would you call him?  

just playing good enough to start.

[SoFlaJets]

I wouldn't necessarily call a "quality start" 60% completion and 2/1 touchdown/interception ratio. This is the expectation for every nfl starter. If he's not playing at this level, the team will be looking for another QB.

You tell me what's wrong with 32 TDs and 16 INTs and a 63%-when was the last time a Jets QB actually DID that? You know when? NEVER.

The best Jets QBing years and you'll be surprised to NOT find Joe Namath's stats on any listing here were:

1981 Richard Todd  25 TDs 13 INTs 56.1%

1985 Ken O'Brien    25 TDs 8 INTs 60.9%

1986 Ken O'Brien    25 TDs 20 INTs 62.2%

1993 B. Esiason      16 TDs 11 INTS 60.9%

1998 Vinny T            29 TDs 7 INTs  61.5%

2002 The Chadster   22 TDs 6 INTs 68.9%

I'd have to say 98 was the Jets best

[JetBlue]

just playing good enough to start.

Then alot of quarterbacks should not be starting. 

[SoFlaJets]

I don't know who Brent is, but apparently he and I were somewhat on the same page regarding 60% comp and more TD's than INT's..just posted this to the front page.

http://www.jetnation.com/2015/09/22/fitzpatricks-efficiency-best-for-jets-since-favre/

Brent is one of the guys from The Jets Blog and I just went back and did the research Glen, and you would be shocked to learn that the best year a Jets QB ever has had (statistically speaking) was Vinny Testaverde in 1998 with 29 TDs only 7 picks and a 61.5%

[AFJF]

Brent is one of the guys from The Jets Blog and I just went back and did the research Glen, and you would be shocked to learn that the best year a Jets QB ever has had (statistically speaking) was Vinny Testaverde in 1998 with 29 TDs only 7 picks and a 61.5%

Sadly I'm not shocked at all...quality Jets QB play is so infrequent that remembering the few good ones in my lifetime is pretty easy.  So sad.

[rick34125]

Then alot of quarterbacks should not be starting. 

no not really. check the stats. there are only a handful below 60%. and among them there a few, like luck and manning, that will bounce back.

[SoFlaJets]

Sadly I'm not shocked at all...quality Jets QB play is so infrequent that remembering the few good ones in my lifetime is pretty easy.  So sad.

Even during the Championship season Namath threw for 15 TDs and had 17 INTs and a 49.2% some of his subsequent seasons were shockingly horrible like oh say 1975 15 TDs and 28 INTs 48.2% had it not been for January 12th 1969 that guy would only be known for Suzie Kolber and he was my frigging IDOL growing up.

[thshadow]

Then alot of quarterbacks should not be starting. 

And the ones who should be starting are quality quarterbacks...  

 

[rick34125]

You tell me what's wrong with 32 TDs and 16 INTs and a 63%-when was the last time a Jets QB actually DID that? You know when? NEVER.

The best Jets QBing years and you'll be surprised to NOT find Joe Namath's stats on any listing here were:

1981 Richard Todd  25 TDs 13 INTs 56.1%

1985 Ken O'Brien    25 TDs 8 INTs 60.9%

1986 Ken O'Brien    25 TDs 20 INTs 62.2%

1993 B. Esiason      16 TDs 11 INTS 60.9%

1998 Vinny T            29 TDs 7 INTs  61.5%

2002 The Chadster   22 TDs 6 INTs 68.9%

I'd have to say 98 was the Jets best

chad was pretty accurate. i wonder what his numbers would be like if he played with brandon marshall.

[thshadow]

no not really. check the stats. there are only a handful below 60%. and among them there a few, like luck and manning, that will bounce back.

What fraction of games do you think the QB throws for 60+% completions and more TDs than INTs?  My guess is it would be around 33%.  Maybe a little higher.  Regardless, "quality" start seems to be a perfectly good adjective to use for it.

[SoFlaJets]

no not really. check the stats. there are only a handful below 60%. and among them there a few, like luck and manning, that will bounce back.

surprisingly, Rick is correct of the 32 teams last year only 7 had an under 60% completion percentage-if you happen to peruse that list scroll all the way down to the bottom where sits Rex Ryan's pitiful excuse for an offense and a pitiful starting QB who had perhaps the worst game a pro QB can ever have a nd a feew weeks later THE BEST...who needs that kind of inconsistency?

[rick34125]

What fraction of games do you think the QB throws for 60+% completions and more TDs than INTs?  My guess is it would be around 33%.  Maybe a little higher.  Regardless, "quality" start seems to be a perfectly good adjective to use for it.

i don't know what this means. but if quality=somewhere around average, that's what we have.

[thshadow]

What fraction of games do you think the QB throws for 60+% completions and more TDs than INTs?  My guess is it would be around 33%.  Maybe a little higher.  Regardless, "quality" start seems to be a perfectly good adjective to use for it.

Just to do some research, from this week, here are the "quality" starts by QBs:

Den/KC: 0/2
NE/Buf: 1/2
Ari/Chi: 1/2
SD/Cin: 2/2
Ten/Cle: 0/2
Det/Min: 2/2
TB/NO: 1/2
Atl/NYG: 2/2
SF/Pitt: 2/2
STL/Was: 1/2
Hou/Car: 0/2
Bal/Oak: 2/2
Mia/Jax: 1/2
Dal/Phi: 0/2 (if you use Romo)
Sea/GB: 2/2
NYJ/Ind: 1/2

So that comes out to 18/32, which is 56% - higher than I guessed...

 

[Snell41]

You tell me what's wrong with 32 TDs and 16 INTs and a 63%-when was the last time a Jets QB actually DID that? You know when? NEVER.

The best Jets QBing years and you'll be surprised to NOT find Joe Namath's stats on any listing here were:

1981 Richard Todd  25 TDs 13 INTs 56.1%

1985 Ken O'Brien    25 TDs 8 INTs 60.9%

1986 Ken O'Brien    25 TDs 20 INTs 62.2%

1993 B. Esiason      16 TDs 11 INTS 60.9%

1998 Vinny T            29 TDs 7 INTs  61.5%

2002 The Chadster   22 TDs 6 INTs 68.9%

I'd have to say 98 was the Jets best

98 was the only time I ever recall having that feeling I so disgustedly now get when I see Tom Brady rears back to throw. That feeling that every single time he threw was going to be a completion. It was the best feeling in the world. Someday before I die, I hope.

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[ylekram]

Nice read, but 'Smith's upside'? Sorry, I see none with his inability to go thru Progression reads past Primary WR. 

people tend to confuse upside with athletic ability.