Mock offseason (long)

[maury77]

Current salary cap – 135,000,000

Expected cap for 2016 – 150,000,000

 

CUTS (many thanks to the guys at the Jets Blog for this info)

 

Quinton Coples - Wait, he was already cut, wasn’t he? Yes, but cutting him last year saves the Jets 7.8 million against the 2016 cap. 

 

Breno Giacomini - arguably the worst starter on the OL last year, but fortunately, RT is a relatively easy space to fill through the draft or FA. Saves 3.8 million. 

 

Cro - CB is one of the deepest positions on the team and Cro’s play last year does not justify paying him 8 million next year. Look for the Jets to pick a CB early in the draft. This move saves another 8 million. 

 

Cumberland - no explanation necessary. Saves 1.9 million. 

 

Kerley - See above. Saves 2.5 million. 

 

New cap number is 111,000,000, leaving us about 39,000,000 in cap space

 

RESTRUCTURE (I’m basically plagiarizing the guys at the Jets blog here)

 

Brick - I thought about cutting him, but there is no replacement already on the staff and I am not positive the Jets can do much better with what is projected to be available on the free agent market. At the same time, Brick is not going to have a ton of suitors on the open market and is likely to have an interest in finishing his career with the same team and living in the area he grew up in. Jets save another 4.5 million. 

 

Mangold - He still looks like he has some tread left on his tire, so the Jets can afford to spread his cap hit over the next couple of years. Caps savings of 3 million. 

 

New cap figure is 103,500,000 leaving us with 46,500,000. Let’s assume the rookie salary pool will be about 6,500,000, that leaves the team with 40,000,000 to go shopping. 

 

RESIGN (I’m using Spotrac and Jason @ Over The Cap for my salary projections)

 

Leger Douzable - 1 million

 

Erin Henderson - 1.2 million

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Obviously the Jets should bring him back on a short deal. The speculation on what his contract will be has ranged anywhere from 10 million per year to 7-8. I’ll go with 8 million per for 3 years. 

 

Bilal Powell - The Jets can’t go into the draft with Zach Stacy as their leading returning RB. While Ivory has been a very good player for the Jets (especially for a 4th rounder), he is getting older, constantly gets nicked up and will likely receive a nice contract with the season he is coming off. I’d rather bring Powell back on a modest contract. Powell is not Adrian Peterson, but he is a solid all around 3rd down back who can be the lead RB in a pinch. 1.2 million per year for 2 years. 

 

Damon Harrison - Snacks is a priority re-sign for me. The NT is so important in a 3-4 and Snacks has been as good a 3-4 NT as anyone else in the league the last several years. Yes, he offers almost nothing in the pass rush, but he is arguably the biggest reason why our run defense has been as good as it has over the last couple of years. 6 million per year for Snacks. 

 

money left over is 20,300,000

 

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (again, I’m using Jason’s calculations or Spotorac)

 

The goal is to get younger and faster (isn’t that always the goal?)

 

Lamar Miller (RB) - For reasons I cannot figure out, Miami never really seemed to want to lean on Miller. They drafted Jay Ajayi last year and they have cap problems, so I doubt that Miller is coming back. Miller is a fast player who will add a needed home run element to the Jets. Looking at the average contracts for running backs: http://overthecap.com/position/running-back, I’d say Miller gets Vereen money, so let’s say 4.5 million a year for 5 years

 

Jeff Allen (RT) - I really don’t know sh*t about this player, however he filled in admirably at RT for the Chiefs this year and he is only 26 (http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1/22/10814516/jeff-allen-free-agency-kansas-city-chiefs). Let’s say 4 million per year for 3 years. 

 

John Simon (OLB) - Who? lol. The free agent OLB class isn’t pretty, especially if we are shopping in the bargain bin. I think Miller, Ware, Olivier and Irvin are pipe dreams. I considered Tamba Hali, but he is breaking down and it sounds like he might retire if he does not resign with KC. Things got so bad, I even contemplated Alan Branch. 

 

Enter John Simon. He was a LEO who got drafted by the Ravens a few years back and spent the last 2 years on the Texans (Macc was part of the organization when the Texans signed him, so I’m confident he has some insight on the player). He played well last year: http://walterfootball.com/freeagents2016OLB.php and https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/11/pro-2016-free-agency-tracker/. Young cheap upside guy who has played well in spurts (just like Chris Ivory did). 

 

With Mercilus and Clowney starting to play well, the Texans may not make much of a tender on Simon. Simon was pretty good last year and racked up 5 sacks in limited action (similar to Mauldin). This should be a relatively cheap deal, say 2 million a year for 3 years. 

 

Marquette Smith - Yes, I’m signing a friggin punter. Special teams kept us out of the playoffs last year and I can’t take another season of Ryan Quigley. 3 years for 2 million per

 

 

 

The Jets would now have about a couple of million left. This money gets left aside to fill in roster depth throughout the year. 

 

TRADES

 

Mo - A lot of you guys are going to write me off at this stage and I understand why. I love Mo and I hate seeing homegrown talent go away. But the more I think about it, the better off I think the club will be in the long run. This topic has been discussed ad nauseum so I won’t get into my rational because I frankly have nothing new to add to the discussion. Jets trade him to KC for their 1st rounder and 3rd rounder. 

 

DRAFT

 

Round 1

 

Paxton Lynch (QB from Tulsa) - I think one of the big 3 QBs is going to fall to the Jets. Lynch has played well and has a lot of physical ability, but sitting a year or two behind Fitz so the former can work out his mechanical issues will do him a world of wonder. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/paxton-lynch-vs-houston-2015/

 

Jack Conklin (Chiefs Pick) (OT from Michigan State) - run game mauler who needs to work on his footwork but should eventually develop into a pretty good LT (think a rich man’s Jason Fabini). Conklin could play his first year inside at guard or at RT. Here is some tape of him going up against Buckner: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jack-conklin-vs-oregon-2015/

 

Round 2

 

Kyler Fackrell (OLB from Utah State) - I really like this kid. He already has experience standing up on the edge in a 3-4. Good athlete who needs to get a little bit stronger, but has the frames and the long arms to do it. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/kyler-fackrell-vs-colorado-state-2015/

 

Round 3

 

Will Redmon (CB from Mississippi State) - The loss of Cro means that we need to start looking to groom a future starter at CB and, sadly, neither Milliner nor McDougle look they will ever be “that guy”. Redmond good size kid who is aggressive and was playing well this season. He tore his ACL in October, so I don’t think he will be able to test much before the draft, causing him to drop in the draft. http://nflmocks.com/2015/11/04/will-redmond-cb-mississippi-state-2016-nfl-draft-scouting-report/, http://draftbreakdown.com/video/will-redmond-vs-lsu-2015/

 

Round 4

 

Cyrus Jones (CB from Alabama) - yes, another CB, but Bowles does like them. Jones needs a lot of work on his technique (he’s got a Kyle Wilson like habit of not turning his head around when the ball is in the air), but he has the ability to develop into a starting nickel back and may replace Skrine in a couple of years. But, more than anything, Jones is a heck of a punt returner and will hopefully fill that position (and KR) for the Jets. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC-GGWdMreI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvXiTJovyX8

 

Round 5

 

Terrance Smith (LB from Florida State) former sprinter who has played well for stretches at FSU, but never became the impact player everyone expected. Good special teams potential with the ability to possibly develop into a starting ILB in the future.. 

 

Round 7

 

Ryan Malleck (TE from VA tech) Blocking TE

 

 

 

[afosomf]

No more Bama Cb's Shane will committ hari kari

[CrazyCarl40]

I think this is a solid effort and I won't pick it all apart, but I think Lamar Miller prices himself out of the Jets range. Same thing with the punter. Other teams will have stupid money to throw around. 

[Raideraholic]

Once you proposed the Chiefs as the team trading for Muhammad Wilkerson, this mock offseason was pure fantasy.   The Chiefs can't afford M Wilkerson contract , as the money you think they have , will go to signing their own free agents.

 There is only one team I can think of that might be willing to do a trade for Wilkerson.   that is the Jaguars. There isn't going to be a big trade market for Wilkerson . ( reducing what the Jets can get back in a trade) .

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Raideraholic said:

Once you proposed the Chiefs as the team trading for Muhammad Wilkerson, this mock offseason was pure fantasy.   The Chiefs can't afford M Wilkerson contract , as the money you think they have , will go to signing their own free agents.

 There is only one team I can think of that might be willing to do a trade for Wilkerson.   that is the Jaguars. There isn't going to be a big trade market for Wilkerson . ( reducing what the Jets can get back in a trade) .

As I told you in the other thread, the Chiefs (with almost 30 million in cap space prior to making any changes on the roster) have almost 30 million in available cap space: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

[Tinstar]

23 hours ago, maury77 said:

Current salary cap – 135,000,000

Expected cap for 2016 – 150,000,000

 

CUTS (many thanks to the guys at the Jets Blog for this info)

 

Quinton Coples - Wait, he was already cut, wasn’t he? Yes, but cutting him last year saves the Jets 7.8 million against the 2016 cap. 

 

Breno Giacomini - arguably the worst starter on the OL last year, but fortunately, RT is a relatively easy space to fill through the draft or FA. Saves 3.8 million. 

 

Cro - CB is one of the deepest positions on the team and Cro’s play last year does not justify paying him 8 million next year. Look for the Jets to pick a CB early in the draft. This move saves another 8 million. 

 

Cumberland - no explanation necessary. Saves 1.9 million. 

 

Kerley - See above. Saves 2.5 million. 

 

New cap number is 111,000,000, leaving us about 39,000,000 in cap space

 

RESTRUCTURE (I’m basically plagiarizing the guys at the Jets blog here)

 

Brick - I thought about cutting him, but there is no replacement already on the staff and I am not positive the Jets can do much better with what is projected to be available on the free agent market. At the same time, Brick is not going to have a ton of suitors on the open market and is likely to have an interest in finishing his career with the same team and living in the area he grew up in. Jets save another 4.5 million. 

 

Mangold - He still looks like he has some tread left on his tire, so the Jets can afford to spread his cap hit over the next couple of years. Caps savings of 3 million. 

 

New cap figure is 103,500,000 leaving us with 46,500,000. Let’s assume the rookie salary pool will be about 6,500,000, that leaves the team with 40,000,000 to go shopping. 

 

RESIGN (I’m using Spotrac and Jason @ Over The Cap for my salary projections)

 

Leger Douzable - 1 million

 

Erin Henderson - 1.2 million

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Obviously the Jets should bring him back on a short deal. The speculation on what his contract will be has ranged anywhere from 10 million per year to 7-8. I’ll go with 8 million per for 3 years. 

 

Bilal Powell - The Jets can’t go into the draft with Zach Stacy as their leading returning RB. While Ivory has been a very good player for the Jets (especially for a 4th rounder), he is getting older, constantly gets nicked up and will likely receive a nice contract with the season he is coming off. I’d rather bring Powell back on a modest contract. Powell is not Adrian Peterson, but he is a solid all around 3rd down back who can be the lead RB in a pinch. 1.2 million per year for 2 years. 

 

Damon Harrison - Snacks is a priority re-sign for me. The NT is so important in a 3-4 and Snacks has been as good a 3-4 NT as anyone else in the league the last several years. Yes, he offers almost nothing in the pass rush, but he is arguably the biggest reason why our run defense has been as good as it has over the last couple of years. 6 million per year for Snacks. 

 

money left over is 20,300,000

 

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (again, I’m using Jason’s calculations or Spotorac)

 

The goal is to get younger and faster (isn’t that always the goal?)

 

Lamar Miller (RB) - For reasons I cannot figure out, Miami never really seemed to want to lean on Miller. They drafted Jay Ajayi last year and they have cap problems, so I doubt that Miller is coming back. Miller is a fast player who will add a needed home run element to the Jets. Looking at the average contracts for running backs: http://overthecap.com/position/running-back, I’d say Miller gets Vereen money, so let’s say 4.5 million a year for 5 years

 

Jeff Allen (RT) - I really don’t know sh*t about this player, however he filled in admirably at RT for the Chiefs this year and he is only 26 (http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1/22/10814516/jeff-allen-free-agency-kansas-city-chiefs). Let’s say 4 million per year for 3 years. 

 

John Simon (OLB) - Who? lol. The free agent OLB class isn’t pretty, especially if we are shopping in the bargain bin. I think Miller, Ware, Olivier and Irvin are pipe dreams. I considered Tamba Hali, but he is breaking down and it sounds like he might retire if he does not resign with KC. Things got so bad, I even contemplated Alan Branch. 

 

Enter John Simon. He was a LEO who got drafted by the Ravens a few years back and spent the last 2 years on the Texans (Macc was part of the organization when the Texans signed him, so I’m confident he has some insight on the player). He played well last year: http://walterfootball.com/freeagents2016OLB.php and https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/11/pro-2016-free-agency-tracker/. Young cheap upside guy who has played well in spurts (just like Chris Ivory did). 

 

With Mercilus and Clowney starting to play well, the Texans may not make much of a tender on Simon. Simon was pretty good last year and racked up 5 sacks in limited action (similar to Mauldin). This should be a relatively cheap deal, say 2 million a year for 3 years. 

 

Marquette Smith - Yes, I’m signing a friggin punter. Special teams kept us out of the playoffs last year and I can’t take another season of Ryan Quigley. 3 years for 2 million per

 

 

 

The Jets would now have about a couple of million left. This money gets left aside to fill in roster depth throughout the year. 

 

TRADES

 

Mo - A lot of you guys are going to write me off at this stage and I understand why. I love Mo and I hate seeing homegrown talent go away. But the more I think about it, the better off I think the club will be in the long run. This topic has been discussed ad nauseum so I won’t get into my rational because I frankly have nothing new to add to the discussion. Jets trade him to KC for their 1st rounder and 3rd rounder. 

 

DRAFT

 

Round 1

 

Paxton Lynch (QB from Tulsa) - I think one of the big 3 QBs is going to fall to the Jets. Lynch has played well and has a lot of physical ability, but sitting a year or two behind Fitz so the former can work out his mechanical issues will do him a world of wonder. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/paxton-lynch-vs-houston-2015/

 

Jack Conklin (Chiefs Pick) (OT from Michigan State) - run game mauler who needs to work on his footwork but should eventually develop into a pretty good LT (think a rich man’s Jason Fabini). Conklin could play his first year inside at guard or at RT. Here is some tape of him going up against Buckner: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jack-conklin-vs-oregon-2015/

 

Round 2

 

Kyler Fackrell (OLB from Utah State) - I really like this kid. He already has experience standing up on the edge in a 3-4. Good athlete who needs to get a little bit stronger, but has the frames and the long arms to do it. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/kyler-fackrell-vs-colorado-state-2015/

 

Round 3

 

Will Redmon (CB from Mississippi State) - The loss of Cro means that we need to start looking to groom a future starter at CB and, sadly, neither Milliner nor McDougle look they will ever be “that guy”. Redmond good size kid who is aggressive and was playing well this season. He tore his ACL in October, so I don’t think he will be able to test much before the draft, causing him to drop in the draft. http://nflmocks.com/2015/11/04/will-redmond-cb-mississippi-state-2016-nfl-draft-scouting-report/, http://draftbreakdown.com/video/will-redmond-vs-lsu-2015/

 

Round 4

 

Cyrus Jones (CB from Alabama) - yes, another CB, but Bowles does like them. Jones needs a lot of work on his technique (he’s got a Kyle Wilson like habit of not turning his head around when the ball is in the air), but he has the ability to develop into a starting nickel back and may replace Skrine in a couple of years. But, more than anything, Jones is a heck of a punt returner and will hopefully fill that position (and KR) for the Jets. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC-GGWdMreI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvXiTJovyX8

 

Round 5

 

Terrance Smith (LB from Florida State) former sprinter who has played well for stretches at FSU, but never became the impact player everyone expected. Good special teams potential with the ability to possibly develop into a starting ILB in the future.. 

 

Round 7

 

Ryan Malleck (TE from VA tech) Blocking TE

 

 

 

I can deal with all this , with one exception .  I want Brick Ferguson gone, and I want a new starting LT . All I keep reading and hearing is how we don't have anyone to replace him .  As long as we keep this mind set, we will never get better along the OL . Ferguson has been a good LT for the Jets, and maybe deserving of his Number in the Ring of Honor, but it's time to move on, not extend his lease and pour more money into a leaky bucket .

Sometimes you have to take a step back so you can take 2 or even 10 steps forward.

 

[Colgateman]

No way the Raiders let King walk, he's one of the best punters in the NFL.

[Raideraholic]

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

As I told you in the other thread, the Chiefs (with almost 30 million in cap space prior to making any changes on the roster) have almost 30 million in available cap space: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

You know who there free agents are( Eric Berry, D Johnson Tamba  Hali, and Sean Harris etc.. And how much they need for their draft picks.  Not to mention have to have money for Dontai Poe- going to cost a bundle to re-sign.  30 million might see like a lot but doesn't go quite as far as you think with salary cap going up.( more money teams have = more player salaries goes  up.     Jets will have 30 million too, and they don't want to give it to M Wilkerson either.( it isn't enough as you would have to make cuts to other  areas.  

The Chiefs aren't trading for M Wilkerson . You honestly look at every team, and you figure out there isn't going to be a big trade market for him.  Just takes one.  But there is also a good chance you are forced to keep him at 16 million dollars too- than it cut a lot of areas to pay for it.

[SenorGato]

Much appreciate the effort but hard pass. 

To poke at one thing instead of tearing it all down...Frackell will be a 25 year old rookie. Unless he blows up the combine, no thanks on a second. 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Tinstar said:

I can deal with all this , with one exception .  I want Brick Ferguson gone, and I want a new starting LT . All I keep reading and hearing is how we don't have anyone to replace him .  As long as we keep this mind set, we will never get better along the OL . Ferguson has been a good LT for the Jets, and maybe deserving of his Number in the Ring of Honor, but it's time to move on, not extend his lease and pour more money into a leaky bucket .

Sometimes you have to take a step back so you can take 2 or even 10 steps forward.

 

I hear you Tin and I'm tempted to just cut ties with Brick, but I'd rather give his replacement (who should be drafted this year) one season to grow into the position. 

[Tinstar]

7 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I hear you Tin and I'm tempted to just cut ties with Brick, but I'd rather give his replacement (who should be drafted this year) one season to grow into the position. 

You don't grow as an OT in the NFL by sitting on the bench . I love what this coaching staff did with Brent Qvale last year in Camp when so many thought he was heading for a starting assignment including myself.  Giving him those reps allows him to focus on what he needs to work on heading into this off season giving him a better shot at earning that starting spot .

If we keep this guy around, we will never find his replacement, out of fear of his replacement failing .  It's not like Ferguson is playing so much better that he can't be replaced. 

[Tinstar]

Compare this 7 round draft Tek mock to all ours mocks and what is your take away .

 1st  : 

Jaylon Smith  -  OLB  -  Notre Dame

2nd :

Shon Coleman  -  OT  -  Auburn

3rd :

Kyle Murphy  -  OT  -  Stanford

4th :

Jordan Howard  -  RB  -  Indiana 

5th :

Cardale Jones  -  QB  -  OSU

7th :

Joe Thuney   -  OG  -   N C State

 

I think someone realizes that this just might be an offensive Draft for the NYJets.

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Tinstar said:

Compare this 7 round draft Tek mock to all ours mocks and what is your take away .

 1st  : 

Jaylon Smith  -  OLB  -  Notre Dame

2nd :

Shon Coleman  -  OT  -  Auburn

3rd :

Kyle Murphy  -  OT  -  Stanford

4th :

Jordan Howard  -  RB  -  Indiana 

5th :

Cardale Jones  -  QB  -  OSU

7th :

Joe Thuney   -  OG  -   N C State

 

I think someone realizes that this just might be an offensive Draft for the NYJets.

I'm cool with that. 

[Larz]

so mo for lamar miller and a crap shoot pick to fill a different hole  basically ?

 

lol

[SenorGato]

3 hours ago, Larz said:

so mo for lamar miller and a crap shoot pick to fill a different hole  basically ?

lol

It's just economics, bruh. Jets are free to do basically whatever they will ever need to do without Wilkeson. By losing him the team is now set up to one day find a QB, an upgrade at pass rusher (only allowed one unless any others play for free), and a brand new OL. With him can they even make a move this offseason? Thought so

[afosomf]

If the plan is to take Jaylon and sit him entire yr and have the team suck and go 4-12 so they can move up to get Deshaun Watson, it may make sense

The plan would dictate to keep Fitzy playing vs Brutal schedule to help insure such, trading Mo or sheldon for a 2017 pick as well may also make sense. 

 

 

[Beerfish]

20 hours ago, Tinstar said:

Compare this 7 round draft Tek mock to all ours mocks and what is your take away .

 1st  : 

Jaylon Smith  -  OLB  -  Notre Dame

2nd :

Shon Coleman  -  OT  -  Auburn

3rd :

Kyle Murphy  -  OT  -  Stanford

4th :

Jordan Howard  -  RB  -  Indiana 

5th :

Cardale Jones  -  QB  -  OSU

7th :

Joe Thuney   -  OG  -   N C State

 

I think someone realizes that this just might be an offensive Draft for the NYJets.

Oh for gods sake, 3 olineman?

[Tinstar]

24 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Oh for gods sake, 3 olineman?

I had nothing to do with this Fishy, LOL .   I do like it thou.

[Tinstar]

3 hours ago, afosomf said:

If the plan is to take Jaylon and sit him entire yr and have the team suck and go 4-12 so they can move up to get Deshaun Watson, it may make sense

The plan would dictate to keep Fitzy playing vs Brutal schedule to help insure such, trading Mo or sheldon for a 2017 pick as well may also make sense. 

 

 

This is a plan to get someone fired. 

[Beerfish]

17 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

This is a plan to get someone fired. 

Except this regime is imo secure for at least 3 or 4 years minimum.  One of the few times a front office can perhaps do what they really want re players and contracts as well.  I do not think we are in the win or you are out mode finally which often forces bad decisions.  (This is why I expect the bills to make some dumb moves this off season they have been given an ultiamtum)

[maury77]

21 hours ago, Larz said:

so mo for lamar miller and a crap shoot pick to fill a different hole  basically ?

 

lol

Or you can bring back Mo and essentially field the same team we did this year, except without Ivory or Snacks, and pray that Fitzpatrick plays just as well as he did last year so we can have a 50/50 shot of eeking into the playoffs. BTW, every draft pick is a crap shoot. 

[maury77]

18 hours ago, SenorGato said:

It's just economics, bruh. Jets are free to do basically whatever they will ever need to do without Wilkeson. By losing him the team is now set up to one day find a QB, an upgrade at pass rusher (only allowed one unless any others play for free), and a brand new OL. With him can they even make a move this offseason? Thought so

What he said.