HawkeyeJet Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 So I've debated posting this for awhile, just because I know I'll be accused of defending Macc, and I'm certainly not doing that. I just see the Jaso OTC tweet used all the time as the big "ah ha" stat to drive home how lousy the GM is and I just think it's a bit misleading. That said, I did a bit of research my self to see the washout rate of other players drafted in the same RD of the Same drafts that count towards Macc's league leading "out of NFL" stat. Going from earliest to most recent, here is what I found: Devin Smith: 5 of 31 other 2015 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Mauldin: 10 of 34 other 2015 3rd Rd picks are out of football. Petty: 7 of 36 other 2015 4th Rd picks are out of football Harrison: 14 of 39 other 2015 5th Rd picks are out of football. Hack: 2 of 31 other 2016 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Donahue: Only 1 other 2017 5th Rounder is out of football. So what does all that mean? I don't know. I guess to me it shows that his first draft as a whole was a complete failure, but individually each of those picks aren't so rare in the "wash out" rate compared to peers. As an draft for Macc though? Absolutely awful. As was the Hack pick, absolutely indefensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said: So I've debated posting this for awhile, just because I know I'll be accused of defending Macc, and I'm certainly not doing that. I just see the Jaso OTC tweet used all the time as the big "ah ha" stat to drive home how lousy the GM is and I just think it's a bit misleading. That said, I did a bit of research my self to see the washout rate of other players drafted in the same RD of the Same drafts that count towards Macc's league leading "out of NFL" stat. Going from earliest to most recent, here is what I found: Devin Smith: 5 of 31 other 2015 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Mauldin: 10 of 34 other 2015 3rd Rd picks are out of football. Petty: 7 of 36 other 2015 4th Rd picks are out of football Harrison: 14 of 39 other 2015 5th Rd picks are out of football. Hack: 2 of 31 other 2016 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Donahue: Only 1 other 2017 5th Rounder is out of football. So what does all that mean? I don't know. I guess to me it shows that his first draft as a whole was a complete failure, but individually each of those picks aren't so rare in the "wash out" rate compared to peers. As an draft for Macc though? Absolutely awful. As was the Hack pick, absolutely indefensible. I give you serious credit for putting in the work to get those numbers together, and they're very certainly interesting to see. I wouldn't accuse you at all of defending Macc by providing the stats, but the key, as you alluded to, is that it's a combination of all these failed draft picks being made together which is why it is a failure. I don't think anyone disputes that there are failed picks in every round of every draft, but the key to those picks ever being considered at all acceptable would be if it proves to be an outlier for the GM who made that poor choice. In Macc's case, he's shown quite the opposite to be true. This is a regular occurrence for him. The only point I would dispute with you is the suggestion that these failures should be considered at all common, even individually. With the exception of the Harrison pick, every other of those rounds still has less than one third out of the league. That means a significant majority of the players picked around them are all still in the league. To have ALL of those failures occur together is so unbelievably statistically unlikely, it seems nearly impossible to be that terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 18 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said: So I've debated posting this for awhile, just because I know I'll be accused of defending Macc, and I'm certainly not doing that. I just see the Jaso OTC tweet used all the time as the big "ah ha" stat to drive home how lousy the GM is and I just think it's a bit misleading. That said, I did a bit of research my self to see the washout rate of other players drafted in the same RD of the Same drafts that count towards Macc's league leading "out of NFL" stat. Going from earliest to most recent, here is what I found: Devin Smith: 5 of 31 other 2015 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Mauldin: 10 of 34 other 2015 3rd Rd picks are out of football. Petty: 7 of 36 other 2015 4th Rd picks are out of football Harrison: 14 of 39 other 2015 5th Rd picks are out of football. Hack: 2 of 31 other 2016 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Donahue: Only 1 other 2017 5th Rounder is out of football. So what does all that mean? I don't know. I guess to me it shows that his first draft as a whole was a complete failure, but individually each of those picks aren't so rare in the "wash out" rate compared to peers. As an draft for Macc though? Absolutely awful. As was the Hack pick, absolutely indefensible. Thank you for doing the research on all of that. According to what you've provided, it certainly looks like other GMs have whiffed where Mac has. As someone else pointed out, the bigger picture is all the whiffs as a whole. Of all the other players that are put of football in the rounds identified, I wonder if any of them all belong to the same team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Every team whiffs but whiffs can be balanced by finding really good players. Mac has the whiffs but has found very few good starters considering the volume of his picks. Worse yet the side of the ball he has put almost all of the resources is disgracefully awful and he did almost zero to pre build some offense for the Qb he was trying to get for a years. Poor drafting Poor draft strategy Poor fa signings Poor organizational plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 22 hours ago, bealeb319 said: You guys are ridiculous you act like he makes no good moves and as if other front offices don't make bad ones. We could maybe get a better gm but chances are we get rid of him and end up with someone worse. I don't believe this team is as far from winning as others seem to think if we have a good off-season this year we can be pretty close to contention. Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app No, you’re being ridiculous if you dismiss the fact that after 4 years he’s taken a 4-12 team to 4-12. He’s also gotten the least out of the draft of any team in those 4 years. It doesn’t mean literally every move is a bad one, but is that the benchmark? As long as he’s the worst in the draft but not every pick he’s made has been a bust, he should keep making picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayRay Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 20 hours ago, section314 said: Good chance the kid the Colts took with one of the 2's we gave them is gonna DROY, I think. Darius Leonard was taken with the second round pick they originally owned. They used the first second rounder they got from the Jets for a good offensive lineman on the very next pick, then they traded the other second-rounder they got from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 22 hours ago, JetsFanatic said: I'd be disappointed if we weren't contending for a playoff spot next year. We have our QB, we have a top 5 pick and $100M in cap space. Better coaching and this team could have realistically won 7 games this season with a rookie QB. (Jets blew 4th quarter leads against the Titans, Texans and Packers. Also could have/should have beaten the Browns. Why is it that whenever we do these hypotheticals, we keep all of our wins and only get more. If we played the Colts again, we definitely win again, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 19 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said: So I've debated posting this for awhile, just because I know I'll be accused of defending Macc, and I'm certainly not doing that. I just see the Jaso OTC tweet used all the time as the big "ah ha" stat to drive home how lousy the GM is and I just think it's a bit misleading. That said, I did a bit of research my self to see the washout rate of other players drafted in the same RD of the Same drafts that count towards Macc's league leading "out of NFL" stat. Going from earliest to most recent, here is what I found: Devin Smith: 5 of 31 other 2015 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Mauldin: 10 of 34 other 2015 3rd Rd picks are out of football. Petty: 7 of 36 other 2015 4th Rd picks are out of football Harrison: 14 of 39 other 2015 5th Rd picks are out of football. Hack: 2 of 31 other 2016 2nd Rd picks are out of football. Donahue: Only 1 other 2017 5th Rounder is out of football. So what does all that mean? I don't know. I guess to me it shows that his first draft as a whole was a complete failure, but individually each of those picks aren't so rare in the "wash out" rate compared to peers. As an draft for Macc though? Absolutely awful. As was the Hack pick, absolutely indefensible. Every single example posted puts Macc in a category of well under 50%. These numbers are damning as any other. Jason’s data is just more data. 4-12 to 4-12 over 4 years should really be the focal point. But there’s plenty more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkeyeJet Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, TeddEY said: Every single example posted puts Macc in a category of well under 50%. These numbers are damning as any other. Jason’s data is just more data. 4-12 to 4-12 over 4 years should really be the focal point. But there’s plenty more. I'm not saying I disagree. Any way you slice it, not good. I just happen to like gathering data and was curious on this specific type of data. Like you said, this sample is also not favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, TeddEY said: Every single example posted puts Macc in a category of well under 50%. These numbers are damning as any other. Jason’s data is just more data. 4-12 to 4-12 over 4 years should really be the focal point. But there’s plenty more. Interesting point to go off of that. Over the past 3 years, the Jets have the third worst record in the entire NFL. The only teams with worse? The Browns and 49ers, both of whom have fired both their head coaches and GMs within the past 2 years. Even if you include the Jets' outlier 10-6 season in 2015, that moves them up to 4th worst in that period, moving behind Jacksonville, who have fired a coach during that period, and while actually retaining their GM, brought in Coughlin to run the show, and have also made it to the AFC championship during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 23 hours ago, bealeb319 said: Some of the guys below Lee have done a decent job in the league considering where they were drafted. Breakdown picks from other teams and see how many third and fourth round probowlers you get. I think you will find that most picks outside of the first round end up being depth type players or below average starters with probably a low chance of getting a hit on a guy second round and beyond. Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app Name one. Not a single guy below Lee is even a rotational player. Not a ******* pro bowler, a rotational player. When you are crowing about guys sticking on practice squads you flat out blow. Juston Burris is towards his better picks. People are crowing about Derrick Jones being a "part of a playoff foundation" yet he literally never plays. Nickerson is going to take over at nickel? Maybe, but he hasn't played a snap on D since the Minnesota game. Nobody is asking for every pick to be a pro bowler, we are asking for useful players. There are few to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 23 hours ago, bealeb319 said: You guys are ridiculous you act like he makes no good moves and as if other front offices don't make bad ones. We could maybe get a better gm but chances are we get rid of him and end up with someone worse. I don't believe this team is as far from winning as others seem to think if we have a good off-season this year we can be pretty close to contention. Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app The chances are? I like our odds. IMO they are absolutely not as far from winning as others seem to think. That has literally nothing to do with the pitiful talent level and everything to do with the fact that it only takes 3 years for a complete overhaul of an NFL roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said: Name one. Not a single guy below Lee is even a rotational player. Not a ******* pro bowler, a rotational player. When you are crowing about guys sticking on practice squads you flat out blow. Juston Burris is towards his better picks. People are crowing about Derrick Jones being a "part of a playoff foundation" yet he literally never plays. Nickerson is going to take over at nickel? Maybe, but he hasn't played a snap on D since the Minnesota game. Nobody is asking for every pick to be a pro bowler, we are asking for useful players. There are few to none. One of my favorite arguments. "What do you expect, Pro Bowlers at every pick?" As if the only option is Pro Bowl player and Practice Squad or worse player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varjet Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 56 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said: Name one. Not a single guy below Lee is even a rotational player. Not a ******* pro bowler, a rotational player. When you are crowing about guys sticking on practice squads you flat out blow. Juston Burris is towards his better picks. People are crowing about Derrick Jones being a "part of a playoff foundation" yet he literally never plays. Nickerson is going to take over at nickel? Maybe, but he hasn't played a snap on D since the Minnesota game. Nobody is asking for every pick to be a pro bowler, we are asking for useful players. There are few to none. The entire league was fooled by the 2016 NFL Draft, but if we expect Mac to be at least an average drafter (he has been a way below average drafter), you can't fault him on the Lee pick, particularly if Bowles wanted someone like that for his defense. Lee is basically an immature idiot-I would hope they do more screening for that. The players picked in the second round of that draft proved to be far more useful. That is where Mac picked Hack. After Hack? Deion Jones, Sua Cravens, Cody Whitehair, Kevin Byard, Yannick Ngahuoe. Who is doing any scouting there? I have no doubt that Bowles suppresses the rookies so he can play veterans. The Jets have always been reluctant to play upstarts as opposed to draft picks and/or highly paid veterans. Lee's replacements are playing better than he is. Anderson does a better job than Williams. This is not a meritocracy . I am sure it has something to do with the Johnsons asking why their investments are not being played. I really hope that this team experiences a complete rebuild and replace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, varjet said: The entire league was fooled by the 2016 NFL Draft, but if we expect Mac to be at least an average drafter (he has been a way below average drafter), you can't fault him on the Lee pick, particularly if Bowles wanted someone like that for his defense. Lee is basically an immature idiot-I would hope they do more screening for that. The players picked in the second round of that draft proved to be far more useful. That is where Mac picked Hack. After Hack? Deion Jones, Sua Cravens, Cody Whitehair, Kevin Byard, Yannick Ngahuoe. Who is doing any scouting there? I have no doubt that Bowles suppresses the rookies so he can play veterans. The Jets have always been reluctant to play upstarts as opposed to draft picks and/or highly paid veterans. Lee's replacements are playing better than he is. Anderson does a better job than Williams. This is not a meritocracy . I am sure it has something to do with the Johnsons asking why their investments are not being played. I really hope that this team experiences a complete rebuild and replace. This also isnt particularly true. Robbie Anderson got run over draft picks. That was merit, not being a vet. Henry Anderson started camp behind Shepherd. The reason he plays is merit. IMo Willia.s is better than both but that is irrelevant. They both start and play the bulk of the snaps. IMO if it weren't for the fact that no real DE is under contract for under $14m in 2019 they wouldn't be force feeding the rooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 On 12/27/2018 at 1:28 PM, IndianaJet said: I'd be interested to see a comparison between Macc and other GMs in the league over this time period. @Sperm Edwards get to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, Maxman said: @Sperm Edwards get to work I see what you did here, you sly dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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