Giants "Not in love" with Rosen

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

So you actually believed Todd Bowles when he said with a strait face “ we are looking at about 6 players at the 3rd pick”??

Not getting what Bowles has to do with this, especially since he's not a GM.  Or that I said I don't believe the Giants.

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, jgb said:

Don’t get the Eli hate. He had a good season last year.

Statistically yes. In actually, not so much

[Jetsplayer21]

19 hours ago, J_Smith said:

I think it’s more Mara family in love with Eli, and Gettleman just trying to not directly undermine his boss. Gettleman has been around, and has been part of enough successful teams to know what works. I highly doubt he believes riding it out with Eli is the best choice

Best choice for number 1 overall pick ?May be a smart plan, next yrs qb class is obviously better 

[Jetsplayer21]

11 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Giants fans still think Eli has it. They want to organization to let Eli go out in pride. Wtf. The dude is pretty done. It’s cruel to let the man play.

Cruel ? Eli wants to play. He is selfish and doesn’t care what is best for team. Gettleman said he approached Eli about contract revision and Eli said no, so he was like ok ?‍♂️ Peyton was same way, didn’t want to take a pay cut until he was threatened to be cut.. and did a million poppy John commercials to make up for lost $ ha

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Statistically yes. In actually, not so much

Yeah I Guess I’m not sophisticated enough. Stats show Eli wasn’t the problem last year IMHO

[Sammybighead]

By the time gettleman does fall in love with a prospect, they'll be a dozen teams drafting ahead of them all targeting the same guy

[Jet Nut]

38 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yeah I Guess I’m not sophisticated enough. Stats show Eli wasn’t the problem last year IMHO

Proving how stats can be misleading. 

[jgb]

24 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Proving how stats can be misleading. 

Proving how people can discount anything that challenges their preconceived notions.

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

Proving how people can discount anything that challenges their preconceived notions.

Challenges?

The challenge is attempting to  make the case had a good season and wasnt a problem.  Anyone who watched the Giants knows this but you're going to get touchy about it.

He put up bloated numbers an bogged down the offense all at the same time. 

Come on.

 

[jgb]

17 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Challenges?

The challenge is attempting to  make the case had a good season and wasnt a problem.  Anyone who watched the Giants knows this but you're going to get touchy about it.

He put up bloated numbers an bogged down the offense all at the same time. 

Come on.

 

I’m touchy. Let’s touch. 

[Thai Jet]

On 4/5/2019 at 12:43 PM, Jet Nut said:

Agree.

Cant believe his entire body of work in college and his status coming into the draft was wiped out because of one season on a horrible team, under a horrible coaching staff.  

All because a unproven HC, who ran a gimmick offense in college to little if any success, may feel more comfortable with an undersized running QB who if Rosen was in this draft would be ranked behind.

I remember when the Bills started Doug Flute with their "gimmick" offense. He was doing great till the Jet's game when Beliprick came up with "the spy" who just fixed on what Flutie moves were. Sooner or later the D will counter measure Murray and his value will diminish.

[nyjunc]

On 4/6/2019 at 12:31 AM, jgb said:

Don’t get the Eli hate. He had a good season last year.

He was awful most of last year, you are just looking at his garbage time stats.

[varjet]

I am not feeling the Giants and Rosen.  They can get one of Lock or Jones at 17.  

I don't think the Maras do West Coast smart alleck well.  

[BurnleyJet]

All teams playing it cagey about Rosen at the moment. We won’t know till closer to the draft when they tip their hand.

[jgb]

10 hours ago, nyjunc said:

He was awful most of last year, you are just looking at his garbage time stats.

Sorry but that doesn't hold water. He had his highest QB rating, completion percentage, and YPA in the 1st quarter (101/74%/8.2) and when leading (120/75%/9.0) last year. I.e. the exact opposite of garbage time.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannEl00/splits/2018/

One interesting thing is that he took over 40 sacks for the first time in his career (47). Seems once giants fell behind and defenses could pin their ears back, his play suffered. Looks like a passpro issue to me--no surprise there, it is well-known Giants OL is poor in this area. Older pocket passer QBs need better protection than younger or more escapable players--again, no surprise.

Gettlemen loves his "hog mollies" and tried to fix the line last year with Solder. He is probably sticking with Eli because his plan is to reinforce the line. He probably sees it the same way I do--Eli did not rack up garbage stats in garbage time. To the contrary, he played well when the team had a balanced attack (early in games and when holding a lead). When they fell behind and had to air it out, defenses stepped up the pass rush and the line couldn't protect Eli and thus his numbers went in the can. That's a better problem to have and shows Eli can still succeed in this league.

[nyjunc]

9 hours ago, jgb said:

Sorry but that doesn't hold water. He had his highest QB rating, completion percentage, and YPA in the 1st quarter (101/74%/8.2) and when leading (120/75%/9.0) last year. I.e. the exact opposite of garbage time.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannEl00/splits/2018/

One interesting thing is that he took over 40 sacks for the first time in his career (47). Seems once giants fell behind and defenses could pin their ears back, his play suffered. Looks like a passpro issue to me--no surprise there, it is well-known Giants OL is poor in this area. Older pocket passer QBs need better protection than younger or more escapable players--again, no surprise.

Gettlemen loves his "hog mollies" and tried to fix the line last year with Solder. He is probably sticking with Eli because his plan is to reinforce the line. He probably sees it the same way I do--Eli did not rack up garbage stats in garbage time. To the contrary, he played well when the team had a balanced attack (early in games and when holding a lead). When they fell behind and had to air it out, defenses stepped up the pass rush and the line couldn't protect Eli and thus his numbers went in the can. That's a better problem to have and shows Eli can still succeed in this league.

You are looking up blind numbers. The team was 1-7 and the season was over and Eli had a good second half thanks to Barkley having a great second half.  Eli's numbers have been pretty similar since 2014 and he's been mostly bad.  

McAdoo was hired in 2014, he changed Eli's approach.  Prior to 2014 he'd throw balls up for grabs, sometimes he'd get lucky and other times it would get picked.  Since 2014 his ints have gone way down and the sacks way up because he now takes sacks instead of throwing the ball up for grabs which makes the numbers look better than they actually are.

2018:

Game 1 vs Jax: led O to 3 1sr qtr pts, 6 1st half pts, 15 for the game.  Had the ball at JAC 40 work 2 minutes down by 5, failed.

Game 2 at Dal: 0 1st half points, trailed 13-0 and 20-3.  Lost 20-13, had an great 98 rating though.

Game 3 at Hou: good game, they won 27-22, hou scored last second TD to make score look closer.

Game 4 vs NO:  7 1st half pts while NYG D held no O to 4 FGs.  Eli added some garbage time pts to lose 33-18.  99 rating!

Game 5 at Car:  did play well late to put them in position to win and D blew it.  This was NYGs 1st 30 pt game from O since 2015.  Of course they needed a trick play Beckham TD pass to do it.

Game 6 vs Phi: 2 1st half FGs, trailed 24-6. Lost 34-13.

Game 7: at Atl: 3 1st half pts. Added TD with 5 secs left to lost just 23-20. 114 rating!

Game 8 vs Was:  3 1st half pts. Huge TD in final seconds to lose 20-13. 

Anything that happened after this was meaningless, this was not a young QB developing.  This was a longtime vet that has seen it all.  The Giants seasons have been mostly over by October the last 5-6 years and he has put up decent numbers that are completely meaningless just like last year.  Now he loses a top 2 weapon in this game, he's almost 40, hasn't been good since around 2011, was never great but they are going to build around him.  

You can blame the OL all you want, the sacks are mostly a result of slow, poor decision making from the QB or not taking chances like he used to.  By the the way.

Sacks per game, ints per game:

2004-2013(151 games):  

252 sacks, 1.67 per game

171 INTs, 1.1 per game

 

2014-2018(79 games)

154 sacks, 1.95 per game

68 ints, .86 per game

 

Per attempt:

2004-2013(5008 attempts)

252 sacks, 1 every 19.9 attempts

171 INTs, 1 every 29 attempts

2014-2018(2964 attempts)

154 sacks, 1 every 19.2 attempts

68 ints, 1 every 43.6 attempts

 

Record 2004-2013: 

85-66, 5 PO apps

Record 2014-2018:

31-48, 1 PO app(when he left an O with Beckham to just 17 PPG).

 

It's nice that the stats look better on paper but he was actually a good QB earlier in his career despite lesser numbers.  Who cares if a guy is putting up decent numbers when the team is out of it by October?

I'm glad you are impressed with Eli, I'm much more glad Dave Gettleman is impressed. I love watching this same movie on repeat and when Sam is a big time QB while Eli is still putting up meaningless numbers on bad teams it will be even more fun.

 

[Jet Nut]

11 hours ago, jgb said:

One interesting thing is that he took over 40 sacks for the first time in his career (47). Seems once giants fell behind and defenses could pin their ears back, his play suffered. Looks like a passpro issue to me--no surprise there, it is well-known Giants OL is poor in this area. Older pocket passer QBs need better protection than younger or more escapable players--again, no surprise.

Funny thing is they were in most games, score wise, most of the season.  So while this sounds good, I don't see how their games were any different than what any team that has a down year experiences.

And while we're using the score hurt him you can make the case it helped him.  More garbage time leads to more passing while trailing and trying to catch up with defenses playing soft defense.

Once again showing how numbers can be twisted to say what we want.  In everyone's eyes he struggled, was a huge reason why the offense struggled and why everyone believes he needs to be replaced. 

[Jet Nut]

Football Outsiders, USA Today

Biggest Hole: Quarterback

It is time to move on from Eli Manning. If we’re honest, it was time to move on from Eli Manning before the 2018 season started, and the time to start at least casually looking for a replacement was after the 2014 season, the last time Manning had a positive passing DVOA. Manning will be 38 years old in September, so he’s not exactly going to get better. His raw stats actually improved last season, but that came from throwing the ball in garbage time against soft defenders (third-most garbage time attempts in the league, per ESPN) and from throwing dink-and-dunk passes and letting Saquon Barkley or Odell Beckham make plays after the catch (5.6 air yards per completion, 25th in the league). The Giants have made no significant moves to find Manning’s heir apparent, resulting in a four-year stretch of middling-to-bad results in the passing game despite the talent at the skill positions.

Part of the Giants’ problem is that Manning has never really been terrible for an extended period of time. He has more or less gradually declined from his peak as a good quarterback, down through various flavors of average to the subpar passer he’s been over the past couple seasons. Had Manning ever fallen off a cliff and stayed there, it would have been easy to make the move away from him and start planning for the future. Instead, Manning has coasted down from his peak so gradually that it has been easy for the franchise to believe that it would just take the right spark to get him going again — a better coach, more skill position players, a new offensive line. The truth of the matter is that for all Manning has meant to the franchise, he is an anchor for the passing attack at this point in his career.

 

 

[14 in Green]

I gave up discussing other teams QB's on this board the night of the Super Bowl.

If you listen to 80% of the people who post here, that game proved Goff is a horrible QB and our QB is so much better. Foles a game manager, Wentz, Watson, are meh, Allen should be a RB, Manning is the reason the Giants only won 5 games, and of course Brady is a cheater who survives on "magic potions" from a trainer. Go down a list of QB's and it will be more of the same.

Of course there is one QB who can do no wrong, and for whom stats don't matter. Most people here have seen enough to decide he will become a MVP caliber QB who will lead his team to multiple Super Bowls. It's simply amazing to me how every other QB in the league gets criticized here, but you become a troll of the highest order if you claim our QB didn't have the phenomenal year people here want to think he did.

It's best to just go along with them or say nothing when it comes to QB play..

[jgb]

3 hours ago, nyjunc said:

You are looking up blind numbers.

 

Position 1: Eli amassed his numbers in garbage time.

Counter: Actually, untrue. He played his best ball by far before the game was decided. And here is the objective data to demonstrate that.

Position 2: Yeah but who cares about the numbers anyway!

Argue all you want he struggled or his numbers didn't tell the true story but the "garbage time" narrative just don't hunt in this case. The story is obviously more nuanced than that, and yes, statistics do help tell the story.

 

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Funny thing is they were in most games, score wise, most of the season.  So while this sounds good, I don't see how their games were any different than what any team that has a down year experiences.

And while we're using the score hurt him you can make the case it helped him.  More garbage time leads to more passing while trailing and trying to catch up with defenses playing soft defense.

Once again showing how numbers can be twisted to say what we want.  In everyone's eyes he struggled, was a huge reason why the offense struggled and why everyone believes he needs to be replaced. 

Definitely not the case that everyone believes he needs to be replaced.

Sad thing is Eli's 2018 would be a top 4 all time Jets QB season behind Namath, Vinny and arguably Fitzmagic. We'd all be talking about how the GM failed to protect him with a professional calibre OL, the defense let him down, the coaching sucked, etc etc and we "expected him to do it all himself" and put him in an impossible situation. Remember, this is a fanbase of which a substantial minority still makes excuses from Sanchez and Geno.

[nyjunc]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

Position 1: Eli amassed his numbers in garbage time.

Counter: Actually, untrue. He played his best ball by far before the game was decided. And here is the objective data to demonstrate that.

Position 2: Yeah but who cares about the numbers anyway!

Argue all you want he struggled or his numbers didn't tell the true story but the "garbage time" narrative just don't hunt in this case. The story is obviously more nuanced than that, and yes, statistics do help tell the story.

 

You can keep looking at out of context numbers all you want, you clearly didn't watch him play.  He had 2 dynamic playmakers making him look better than he was and he still couldn't win.  I showed you the 1-7 start that ended their season and how well he did in first halves and the games.  You can choose to ignore that for blind stats.  

Remember 2017? The Giants were loading up for another SB run behind Eli.  The season was over by October and they went 3-13.  Last year a new GM came in, thought he could as weapon like Barkley, beef up the OL and Eli could lead them on a deep run.  The season was over by October and they won 5 games.  Now they are going to try again this time with Beckham.  It should work out?? the one time they made the playoffs post 2011 he led an offense with Odell Beckham to just 17 PPG.  That's all we really need to know but please go on with the meaningless numbers

[JohnnyLV]

LOL, do teams really believe that this will work? All it does is confirm that the Giants do indeed want Rosen. Cant see negotiating through the press working./

[nyjunc]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

Definitely not the case that everyone believes he needs to be replaced.

Sad thing is Eli's 2018 would be a top 4 all time Jets QB season behind Namath, Vinny and arguably Fitzmagic. We'd all be talking about how the GM failed to protect him with a professional calibre OL, the defense let him down, the coaching sucked, etc etc and we "expected him to do it all himself" and put him in an impossible situation. Remember, this is a fanbase of which a substantial minority still makes excuses from Sanchez and Geno.

Eli's 2018 wasn't as good as Sanchez 2010 let alone some of those other seasons.  What do you think Vinny '98 could have done with those weapons that Eli had?  Vinny was 12-1 as a starter, Eli led NYG to 5 wins. 

[jgb]

34 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

You can keep looking at out of context numbers all you want, you clearly didn't watch him play.  He had 2 dynamic playmakers making him look better than he was and he still couldn't win.  I showed you the 1-7 start that ended their season and how well he did in first halves and the games.  You can choose to ignore that for blind stats.  

Remember 2017? The Giants were loading up for another SB run behind Eli.  The season was over by October and they went 3-13.  Last year a new GM came in, thought he could as weapon like Barkley, beef up the OL and Eli could lead them on a deep run.  The season was over by October and they won 5 games.  Now they are going to try again this time with Beckham.  It should work out?? the one time they made the playoffs post 2011 he led an offense with Odell Beckham to just 17 PPG.  That's all we really need to know but please go on with the meaningless numbers

Out of context? You're dying on the "garbage time" hill when the guy played his best ball in the first quarter and when holding a lead. Why not just say "Okay, the garbage time comment maybe was not accurate but he still sucked and here's why." Then we can actually have an enjoyable discussion rather than picking apart what the meaning of "is" is.

[CTM]

6 hours ago, nyjunc said:

You are looking up blind numbers. The team was 1-7 and the season was over and Eli had a good second half thanks to Barkley having a great second half.  Eli's numbers have been pretty similar since 2014 and he's been mostly bad.  

McAdoo was hired in 2014, he changed Eli's approach.  Prior to 2014 he'd throw balls up for grabs, sometimes he'd get lucky and other times it would get picked.  Since 2014 his ints have gone way down and the sacks way up because he now takes sacks instead of throwing the ball up for grabs which makes the numbers look better than they actually are.

2018:

Game 1 vs Jax: led O to 3 1sr qtr pts, 6 1st half pts, 15 for the game.  Had the ball at JAC 40 work 2 minutes down by 5, failed.

Game 2 at Dal: 0 1st half points, trailed 13-0 and 20-3.  Lost 20-13, had an great 98 rating though.

Game 3 at Hou: good game, they won 27-22, hou scored last second TD to make score look closer.

Game 4 vs NO:  7 1st half pts while NYG D held no O to 4 FGs.  Eli added some garbage time pts to lose 33-18.  99 rating!

Game 5 at Car:  did play well late to put them in position to win and D blew it.  This was NYGs 1st 30 pt game from O since 2015.  Of course they needed a trick play Beckham TD pass to do it.

Game 6 vs Phi: 2 1st half FGs, trailed 24-6. Lost 34-13.

Game 7: at Atl: 3 1st half pts. Added TD with 5 secs left to lost just 23-20. 114 rating!

Game 8 vs Was:  3 1st half pts. Huge TD in final seconds to lose 20-13. 

Anything that happened after this was meaningless, this was not a young QB developing.  This was a longtime vet that has seen it all.  The Giants seasons have been mostly over by October the last 5-6 years and he has put up decent numbers that are completely meaningless just like last year.  Now he loses a top 2 weapon in this game, he's almost 40, hasn't been good since around 2011, was never great but they are going to build around him.  

You can blame the OL all you want, the sacks are mostly a result of slow, poor decision making from the QB or not taking chances like he used to.  By the the way.

Sacks per game, ints per game:

2004-2013(151 games):  

252 sacks, 1.67 per game

171 INTs, 1.1 per game

 

2014-2018(79 games)

154 sacks, 1.95 per game

68 ints, .86 per game

 

Per attempt:

2004-2013(5008 attempts)

252 sacks, 1 every 19.9 attempts

171 INTs, 1 every 29 attempts

2014-2018(2964 attempts)

154 sacks, 1 every 19.2 attempts

68 ints, 1 every 43.6 attempts

 

Record 2004-2013: 

85-66, 5 PO apps

Record 2014-2018:

31-48, 1 PO app(when he left an O with Beckham to just 17 PPG).

 

It's nice that the stats look better on paper but he was actually a good QB earlier in his career despite lesser numbers.  Who cares if a guy is putting up decent numbers when the team is out of it by October?

I'm glad you are impressed with Eli, I'm much more glad Dave Gettleman is impressed. I love watching this same movie on repeat and when Sam is a big time QB while Eli is still putting up meaningless numbers on bad teams it will be even more fun.

 

That's a lot of words to say eli was bottom third by dvoa

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, jgb said:

Position 1: Eli amassed his numbers in garbage time.

Counter: Actually, untrue. He played his best ball by far before the game was decided. And here is the objective data to demonstrate that.

Position 2: Yeah but who cares about the numbers anyway!

Argue all you want he struggled or his numbers didn't tell the true story but the "garbage time" narrative just don't hunt in this case. The story is obviously more nuanced than that, and yes, statistics do help tell the story.

 

Except that the numbers say he put up those bloated members in garbage time.  More than any other QB.  And benefited from Barkley and OBJ.  The same numbers you're using to praise him say don't be fooled

[jgb]

Double post

[jgb]

12 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Except that the numbers say he put up those bloated members in garbage time.  More than any other QB.  And benefited from Barkley and OBJ.  The same numbers you're using to praise him say don't be fooled

Actually the more accurate statement is he played like garbage in garbage time and quite a bit better when the outcome of the games was still in doubt.

Now, the Giants lost a lot of games and were playing from behind often so Eli did a lot of things during “garbage time.” Some were good, many were bad. The definition of a garbage time compiler is a QB who plays like anus during the important parts of the game and is only able to make good things happen when the game is already lost.  Simply playing during a lot of garbage time is not enough. If it were, every QB on a losing team would automatically be a garbage time compiler.

Eli does not fit the definition. He played better before garbage time and then the wheels fell off when they got behind. He’s a garbage garbage time player.

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

Actually the more accurate statement is he played like garbage in garbage time and a bit better when the outcome of the games was still in doubt.

Now, the Giants lost a lot of games and were playing from behind often so Eli did a lot of things during “garbage time.” Precious few were good, the vast majority, bad. The definition of a garbage time compiler is a QB who plays like anus during the important parts of the game and is only able to make good things happen when the game is already lost.  Simply doing things during garbage time is not enough. If it were, every QB on a losing team would automatically be a garbage time compiler.

Eli does not fit the definition. He played better before garbage time and then the wheels fell off when they got behind. He’s a garbage garbage time player.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  The games I watched I saw someone who didn't play well when it counted and saw him salvage numbers in garbage time.  

[jgb]

37 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

We'll have to agree to disagree.  The games I watched I saw someone who didn't play well when it counted and saw him salvage numbers in garbage time.  

I'm sure there was at least one game that he played better later in the game. But over the course of the season, he played significantly better (outside of a standard deviation) earlier in games and when the Giants were leading. But hey, I get how the internet works. Facts can't compete with feelings, and everyone is entitled to those.

I think the Eli critics are missing the easier criticism: that he gave up once his team fell behind and his lousy attitude resulted in terrible performance. I think this too is overly simplistic but at least it has an evidentiary basis.

But good idea to agree to disagree.

[nyjunc]

17 hours ago, jgb said:

Out of context? You're dying on the "garbage time" hill when the guy played his best ball in the first quarter and when holding a lead. Why not just say "Okay, the garbage time comment maybe was not accurate but he still sucked and here's why." Then we can actually have an enjoyable discussion rather than picking apart what the meaning of "is" is.

In the 1-7 start where their season was determined he led his offense to a total of 23 1st qtr pts.  You can keep the completion %, yards or whatever stat you want.  He led them to 23 1st qtr pts in 8 games. By the way, only 48 1st half points.  I wonder why they were always losing?

 

 

[nyjunc]

Eli threw 21 TDs, here are the majority:

Down 20-3

Up 13-3

Tied 0-0 3 times

Down 23-12 with 5 seconds left

Down 20-6 work 17 secs left

Lead 24-14

3 TDs at Washington- leading 17-0, 24-0, 34-0

Up 7-0

Down 14-0

Down 21-10

[Kleckineau]

7 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

Eli threw 21 TDs, here are the majority:

Down 20-3

Up 13-3

Tied 0-0 3 times

Down 23-12 with 5 seconds left

Down 20-6 work 17 secs left

Lead 24-14

3 TDs at Washington- leading 17-0, 24-0, 34-0

Up 7-0

Down 14-0

Down 21-10

Nice work.

Eagles, Cowboys and Redskin fans are preparing your poster of the year trophy.

[nyjunc]

2 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

Nice work.

Eagles, Cowboys and Redskin fans are preparing your poster of the year trophy.

Eagles, cowboys and Redskins fans love Dave Gettleman even more than I do