Daniels >> Nabers

[Lupz27]

57 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Are you trolling?  I have to assume so because this an extraordinarily bad take, like foolish, quite frankly and it's not because you've decided Daniels sucks, that's fine, you're constantly wrong about QB play but it's how you got there that is so ridiculous. 

First and foremost, who focuses on a 5 year starters, true freshman and sophomore years while literally throwing away the years of maturity that you're looking for in a QB during their Jr. and Snr. year?  In this case, when said player gets away from Herm Edwards, transferred to the SEC and dominated.  So you're overall approach is flawed and stupid.   And calling him "pedestrian" lol - was it pedestrian when Oregon rolled into Sun Devil stadium led by Justin Herbert and Daniels went bonkers to lead his team to a win over the #6 team in the country? 

Daniels - 68% comp, 400 yards, 3 TD's - no turnovers

Herbert - 55% comp, 300 yards, 2 TD's, 2 INT's

Secondly, he was actually, quite good as a true freshman.  60% comp, 3,000 yards, 17 TDs vs.  2 INT's, 150 QBR, who the **** wouldnt take those numbers from a true freshman? lmfao.  Not only is that is incredible discipline for a QB at that age to have such few turnovers, which stays w/ him his entire career but he also made Brandon Aiyuk a 1st round pick that year, not to mention the individual performance I just pointed out vs. a future top 10 pick/NFL superstar.

Finally, have you taken the time to compare Jayden Daniels freshman and sophomore's years vs. the rest of the class?  lmfao.  No, clearly you didnt because you'd see he not only has the most experience, the most starts, the best level of comp., but also the best stats out of the class that early in his college career.  Maye was redshirted, and has a decline in numbers year over year.  Williams threw for 1900 yards as freshman, are you not concerned w/ his "pedestrian" career before transferring to USC and losing 5 of his last 7 games while painting his finger nails and crying on the field as he finished his college career.  I take it you dont care about those facts, Mr. winning is everything at QB?  We arent going to JJ McCarthy, right?  Because that would be laughable in comparison. 

1 good year?  Me thinks you need to revisit this class, he aint the one w/ 1 good year, buckaroo.  lol  And Daniels resume is 100x better then Justin Fields but I appreciate the nod to come in here and destroy your absolutely moronic take.   That was nice of you.  

(picks up your gauntlet, sh*ts all over it, and hands it back to you for inspection) 

p.s. - if you're coming into this forum w/ the big dogs, you better bring it next time, no half stepping round here.

Preach

[Beerfish]

4 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Are you trolling?  I have to assume so because this an extraordinarily bad take, like foolish, quite frankly and it's not because you've decided Daniels sucks, that's fine, you're constantly wrong about QB play but it's how you got there that is so ridiculous. 

First and foremost, who focuses on a 5 year starters, true freshman and sophomore years while literally throwing away the years of maturity that you're looking for in a QB during their Jr. and Snr. year?  In this case, when said player gets away from Herm Edwards, transferred to the SEC and dominated.  So you're overall approach is flawed and stupid.   And calling him "pedestrian" lol - was it pedestrian when Oregon rolled into Sun Devil stadium led by Justin Herbert and Daniels went bonkers to lead his team to a win over the #6 team in the country? 

Daniels - 68% comp, 400 yards, 3 TD's - no turnovers

Herbert - 55% comp, 300 yards, 2 TD's, 2 INT's

Secondly, he was actually, quite good as a true freshman.  60% comp, 3,000 yards, 17 TDs vs.  2 INT's, 150 QBR, who the **** wouldnt take those numbers from a true freshman? lmfao.  Not only is that is incredible discipline for a QB at that age to have such few turnovers, which stays w/ him his entire career but he also made Brandon Aiyuk a 1st round pick that year, not to mention the individual performance I just pointed out vs. a future top 10 pick/NFL superstar.

Finally, have you taken the time to compare Jayden Daniels freshman and sophomore's years vs. the rest of the class?  lmfao.  No, clearly you didnt because you'd see he not only has the most experience, the most starts, the best level of comp., but also the best stats out of the class that early in his college career.  Maye was redshirted, and has a decline in numbers year over year.  Williams threw for 1900 yards as freshman, are you not concerned w/ his "pedestrian" career before transferring to USC and losing 5 of his last 7 games while painting his finger nails and crying on the field as he finished his college career.  I take it you dont care about those facts, Mr. winning is everything at QB?  We arent going to JJ McCarthy, right?  Because that would be laughable in comparison. 

1 good year?  Me thinks you need to revisit this class, he aint the one w/ 1 good year, buckaroo.  lol  And Daniels resume is 100x better then Justin Fields but I appreciate the nod to come in here and destroy your absolutely moronic take.   That was nice of you.  

(picks up your gauntlet, sh*ts all over it, and hands it back to you for inspection) 

p.s. - if you're coming into this forum w/ the big dogs, you better bring it next time, no half stepping round here.

You fall all over certain types of QBs, (see the guy the Bears are about to dump.)

Daniels is the 3rd best QB in the draft but like Zac Wilson, like Anthony Richardson he has one big year and has flown up the boards

To the right team with the right talent level and the right amount of patience can he do well?  Yes.

If he goes to a team and is treated like Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, or Bryce Young he will fall on his face like the others and get beat down.

vs the legendary Grambling State, Arkansas, Army, Georgia State: 18 tds - 1 int

vs Bama and FSU 3 tds and 2 ints, 219 yards passing vs Bama

like a lot of college guys, major stat padding vs terrible teams.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

You fall all over certain types of QBs, (see the guy the Bears are about to dump.)

Daniels is the 3rd best QB in the draft but like Zac Wilson, like Anthony Richardson he has one big year and has flown up the boards

To the right team with the right talent level and the right amount of patience can he do well?  Yes.

If he goes to a team and is treated like Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, or Bryce Young he will fall on his face like the others and get beat down.

vs the legendary Grambling State, Arkansas, Army, Georgia State: 18 tds - 1 int

vs Bama and FSU 3 tds and 2 ints, 219 yards passing vs Bama

like a lot of college guys, major stat padding vs terrible teams.

I dont fall for anything.  I see players for who and what they are and call like it, like I see it.  I was right about Fields, just like I will be right about Daniels.  If we're going to talk about types, you're the one who clearly doesnt like certain types, see Fields, Lamar Jackson and every other "mobile" QB.  

Further, you came in here sh*tting on Daniels because of his "pedestrian" time at ASU.  I check your ass w/ his stats as a true freshman and showed you he was better then his comp in this draft, early in his career.  I also dropped his 400 yard, 3 TD performance vs. the #6 in the country team led by Justin Herbert as true freshman to drive home my point.  Since you had no retort for your asinine take on Daniels, you moved the goal post, yet, you cherry picked.  You forgot to mention he's faced FSU and Bama twice, leaving out the game vs. FSU where completed 75% of his passes 210, 2 TD's and ran for 114 yards.  Then you let off the Bama game that LSU won, when he went 68% comp 200 yards, 2 TD's and 100 yards and 1 TD on the ground to compliment.  

So tell me the **** more about padding stats vs. terrible teams as you also failed to also mention his games vs. teams like Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, Georgia, Tenn, Texas A&M, Mizzou, you know the ******* SEC,  where padded his stats to the tune of 29 total TD's and 3 turnovers.  lmfao 

What else you got homey?  Or just want to say mercy and step aside? 

[T0mShane]

17 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

vs. FSU where completed 75% of his passes 210, 2 TD's and ran for 114 yards.  Then you let off the Bama game that LSU won, when he went 68% comp 200 yards, 2 TD's and 100 yards and 1 TD on the ground to compliment.  

Meh

[JustInFudge]

13 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Meh

lol, wut?  

I've noticed you're keen on trying to battle me this year w/ this stuff for some reason, you know this doesnt work out well for people, right?  

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

lol, wut?  

I've noticed you're keen on trying to battle me this year w/ this stuff for some reason, you know this doesnt work out well for people, right?  

Hardly! I am not doing my vaunted QB evals this season because I was anti-Richardson last year and he looked ok until he got hurt (injury prone but whatev). Where else have I battled you? 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Hardly! I am not doing my vaunted QB evals this season because I was anti-Richardson last year and he looked ok until he got hurt (injury prone but whatev). Where else have I battled you? 

[Beerfish]

The Bears are going to dump Justin Fields so they can draft......Justin Fields!

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

The Bears are going to dump Justin Fields so they can draft......Justin Fields!

You do have a point. You look at the game logs and Daniels has a lot of stat padding. And no wonder @JustInFudge likes him—he had his big game against that moribund, gutless UF team that opted against playing defense.

[derp]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The Bears are going to dump Justin Fields so they can draft......Justin Fields!

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You do have a point. You look at the game logs and Daniels has a lot of stat padding. And no wonder @JustInFudge likes him—he had his big game against that moribund, gutless UF team that opted against playing defense.

I think it is one thing to make the case against Daniels and another entirely to make the case for another QB in this class while making the case against Daniels in the fashion that’s been done in this thread.

[T0mShane]

18 minutes ago, derp said:

I think it is one thing to make the case against Daniels and another entirely to make the case for another QB in this class while making the case against Daniels in the fashion that’s been done in this thread.

Daniels is a fine prospect and should be an electric pro. I will not, however, let @JustInFudge bully us into agreeing with him. 😂

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The Bears are going to dump Justin Fields so they can draft......Justin Fields!

You're calling Caleb Williams, Justin Fields now?  

[JustInFudge]

48 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You do have a point. You look at the game logs and Daniels has a lot of stat padding. And no wonder @JustInFudge likes him—he had his big game against that moribund, gutless UF team that opted against playing defense.

No, he doesnt have a point.  Have you read anything I've posted?  He went for 400 and 3 TD's as true freshman vs. the #6 team in the country.  After 2 years of playing in the very best conference/division in Football, the SECW, vs. SEC competition exclusively, he had 52 total TD's.  Those teams include, Bama, Georgia, Tenn., Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, Miss St.  You know, the ******* SEC?  

Like, wtf are we doing here.  A Heisman winning LSU QB didnt play good competition?  That's what what we're doing now? 

[T0mShane]

16 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

No, he doesnt have a point.  Have you read anything I've posted?  He went for 400 and 3 TD's as true freshman vs. the #6 team in the country.  After 2 years of playing in the very best conference/division in Football, the SECW, vs. SEC competition exclusively, he had 52 total TD's.  Those teams include, Bama, Georgia, Tenn., Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, Miss St.  You know, the ******* SEC?  

Like, wtf are we doing here.  A Heisman winning LSU QB didnt play good competition?  That's what what we're doing now? 

The ONLY REASON I even dipped my toe into this was to push back against the idea Daniels was going to get to QB1, which is too much

[JustInFudge]

40 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Daniels is a fine prospect and should be an electric pro. I will not, however, let @JustInFudge bully us into agreeing with him. 😂

I'm not trying to bully, lol, Beerfish came in all passive aggressive, dropping Justin Fields bombs, clearly baiting me, which I'm game for because I destroy and I'm really not sure what else you can ask for in a prospect then Daniels.  He checks all the boxes, except maybe his frame.

That said, I'm great if you dont agree that Daniels is the best QB in the draft.  I disagree obviously but that's fine if that's how you feel, just have a valid reason to present and dont create false bogus narratives.  I wont lie, its a pet peeve that truly irks me because I hate what the draft has become over the past decade.  It's incubator for lazy hot takes where the so called experts who get it wrong every year spend more time tearing prospects down and trying to identify the next so and so too say I told you so vs. looking at the true indicators or accepting a prospect for what they are and doing what's right for them if you draft them.

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

The ONLY REASON I even dipped my toe into this was to push back against the idea Daniels was going to get to QB1, which is too much

I honestly dont think he does because the league is dumb and for some reason people are putting the generational label on Williams w/out actually doing it because they've recently been burned by that label so they're reluctant to go all out now.  Instead, they're saying things like, his "arm is generational", his "off script is generational", or "if he was 6'3 he'd be generational".  So I got a feeling he's still #1 overall.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

I'm not trying to bully, lol, Beerfish came in all passive aggressive, dropping Justin Fields bombs, clearly baiting me, which I'm game for because I destroy and I'm really not sure what else you can ask for in a prospect then Daniels.  He checks all the boxes, except maybe his frame.

That said, I'm great if you dont agree that Daniels is the best QB in the draft.  I disagree obviously but that's fine if that's how you feel, just have a valid reason to present and dont create false bogus narratives.  I wont lie, its a pet peeve that truly irks me because I hate what the draft has become over the past decade.  It's incubator for lazy hot takes where the so called experts who get it wrong every year spend more time tearing prospects down and trying to identify the next so and so too say I told you so vs. looking at the true indicators or accepting a prospect for what they are and doing what's right for them if you draft them.

I feel deep into a draft media podcast wormhole last year and what you got from it is that there are like two guys who can watch a QB and tell you whether they’re good or not and the rest of them are just aping Kiper or whoever. I’m of the belief that 85% of it depends on the team they get drafted by. I think Daniels would be cool as hell on the Giants in that Daboll offense, for instance, and I hope Caleb avoids the Bears, because that situation blows with Eberflus on his last legs. 

[JustInFudge]

12 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I feel deep into a draft media podcast wormhole last year and what you got from it is that there are like two guys who can watch a QB and tell you whether they’re good or not and the rest of them are just aping Kiper or whoever. I’m of the belief that 85% of it depends on the team they get drafted by. I think Daniels would be cool as hell on the Giants in that Daboll offense, for instance, and I hope Caleb avoids the Bears, because that situation blows with Eberflus on his last legs. 

I've considered myself a draftnik since the early 2000's, it was still kind of a little insulated area of the NFL that actually required some thought and elicited solid content on the boards, an area where it seemed die hard fans were attracted too vs. the mainstream NFL. JI had a sub forum and then we created this one here and the posts/discussion were thoughtful.  It then became trendy, and everyone jumped in and started a blog or podcast and became a self proclaimed expert and the sheeple just bowed to their every word and caved to the idea that they for some reason, see things the common fan cant see, which is ridiculous. 

Personally I started to become very exhausted w/ the draft process during the Watson/Mahomes draft.  The idea that Mitch Trubisky was heads and shoulders a better prospect then these 2 absolute ******* studs, was infuriating.  The commonly shared idea that the Jets should pass on these prospects for an inferior prospect in Sam Darnold the following year, was also, infuriating.  When "Ourlads Scouting" brought a radar gun to the combine and acted like they could actually give you an accurate reading on something that nobody was even trying to test for and then sold it as gold that Watson would never make it in the NFL because his lack of MPH and people actually ran w/ that bogus nonsense and then the narrative that Mahomes, w/ an actual cannon attached to his arm, couldnt hit NFL windows, I wanted to rip my head off. 

Fast forward to the Zach Wilson draft w/ the nonsense being sold on why he was really the QB1 in the draft but yet, Lawrence was generational for no reason and the best player of the bunch, was actually a slow processing something or another despite being one of the most intelligent players in the history of the league, and oh wow look, Wilson was a mega bust, Lawrence sucks and Fields is in the record books.  lmfao.  I legit was going to stop even caring/or giving my input but when push came to shove, I still love thinking I'm the greatest scout the world has ever known and when I do get these takes right, which is often, it helps w/ my debilitating insecurities. 

 

[Beerfish]

22 hours ago, derp said:

I think it is one thing to make the case against Daniels and another entirely to make the case for another QB in this class while making the case against Daniels in the fashion that’s been done in this thread.

Which QBs?   How do you rank them?

Williams 1

Maye 2

Daniels 3

Or you swap Maye and Daniels if you prefer.

I think the Fields Daniels comparison is a good one.  I think they are going to be similar QBs

[Beerfish]

21 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

You're calling Caleb Williams, Justin Fields now?  

People are wanting to force Daniels into the #1 spot it seems.  If he is that totally awesome he should be in play at #1 no?

[Beerfish]

20 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

I'm not trying to bully, lol, Beerfish came in all passive aggressive, dropping Justin Fields bombs, clearly baiting me, which I'm game for because I destroy and I'm really not sure what else you can ask for in a prospect then Daniels.  He checks all the boxes, except maybe his frame.

That said, I'm great if you dont agree that Daniels is the best QB in the draft.  I disagree obviously but that's fine if that's how you feel, just have a valid reason to present and dont create false bogus narratives.  I wont lie, its a pet peeve that truly irks me because I hate what the draft has become over the past decade.  It's incubator for lazy hot takes where the so called experts who get it wrong every year spend more time tearing prospects down and trying to identify the next so and so too say I told you so vs. looking at the true indicators or accepting a prospect for what they are and doing what's right for them if you draft them.

You destroy me?   According to you Fields is an mvp Candidate and one of the top QBs in the leauge.....and the Bears are dumping him for probably like a 2nd rounder.

Daniels is very similar to Fieldis many ways and will have the same career arc if he goes to a bad team.

[Adoni Beast]

26 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You destroy me?   According to you Fields is an mvp Candidate and one of the top QBs in the leauge.....and the Bears are dumping him for probably like a 2nd rounder.

Daniels is very similar to Fieldis many ways and will have the same career arc if he goes to a bad team.

Daniels has much more touch on his passes. Fields was always a brute THROWER and Daniels is more of a PASSER.

But clearly there are similarities in the run-option style that have.

[derp]

59 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Which QBs?   How do you rank them?

Williams 1

Maye 2

Daniels 3

Or you swap Maye and Daniels if you prefer.

I think the Fields Daniels comparison is a good one.  I think they are going to be similar QBs

I haven’t watched them enough to rank them, honestly. It’s been a busy year.

That said, I am familiar with their statistics and general profiles. Enough that I think if you rag on Daniels’ track record of production over his career and stat padding against bad teams it’s worth considering that those arguments can easily be made against every quarterback in this class.

That being the case I don’t know how they really move the needle when it comes to evaluating him. That’s all.

[Beerfish]

6 minutes ago, derp said:

I haven’t watched them enough to rank them, honestly. It’s been a busy year.

That said, I am familiar with their statistics and general profiles. Enough that I think if you rag on Daniels’ track record of production over his career and stat padding against bad teams it’s worth considering that those arguments can easily be made against every quarterback in this class.

That being the case I don’t know how they really move the needle when it comes to evaluating him. That’s all.

Well I actually said they all stat pad when I made that comment.  With Daniels his numbers shot through the roof this year after 4 previous years that were okay but not great.

I like all of the top 3 QBs including Daniels but I get uncomfy with meteoric rise QBs up the draft board.

The bigger issue for me is those teams outside the top 3 QBs that convince themselves that bo nix or JJ McCarthy are franc hie QBs

They guy to me who might be set up for good success is Penix if he goes were he is being projected to go as in later 1st round , 2nd round.

[derp]

13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Well I actually said they all stat pad when I made that comment.  With Daniels his numbers shot through the roof this year after 4 previous years that were okay but not great.

I like all of the top 3 QBs including Daniels but I get uncomfy with meteoric rise QBs up the draft board.

The bigger issue for me is those teams outside the top 3 QBs that convince themselves that bo nix or JJ McCarthy are franc hie QBs

They guy to me who might be set up for good success is Penix if he goes were he is being projected to go as in later 1st round , 2nd round.

Not comparing them, but the last quarterback to have a meteoric rise up the draft board as a fifth year senior was probably Burrow. I don’t know how bad it is to have things start to click while you’re still in college.

[Adoni Beast]

18 minutes ago, derp said:

Not comparing them, but the last quarterback to have a meteoric rise up the draft board as a fifth year senior was probably Burrow. I don’t know how bad it is to have things start to click while you’re still in college.

I remember the "Burrow will bust because he has a weak arm and just lobbed it up for Chase like Pennington did with Moss in college" crowd.

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

People are wanting to force Daniels into the #1 spot it seems.  If he is that totally awesome he should be in play at #1 no?

Did Pat Mahomes go #1?  You're just continually making really bad points.  lol

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

You destroy me?   According to you Fields is an mvp Candidate and one of the top QBs in the leauge.....and the Bears are dumping him for probably like a 2nd rounder.

Daniels is very similar to Fieldis many ways and will have the same career arc if he goes to a bad team.

Yes destroyed you. So you've resorted to moving the goal posts and deflecting to a player that has absolutely nothing to do w/ this draft but for the record, who you once said was worse than Zach Wilson moments before he threw for 4 TD's in the first half of a prime time NFL game. 

 

[Lurker89]

I really like Nabers feel like he's being underbilled here quite a bit. That being said I love the top 3 in this class more any recent class prior to them  being in the NFL. Jefferson and Lamb in 2020 will be tough to beat on actual results though.

The underlying metrics love Nabers. ..

YPRR VS  MAN: 2.82

YPRR VS ZONE: 3.13

20% Dominator Rating 

26% Target Share in 2023

84% catch rate in 2023

17.6 Yards per reception in 2023

89 catches on 106 targets for 1569 yards on the year.

2nd 1000+ yard season in a row.

He has gotten progressively better every year 

Top 3 WR prospects this year are amazing:

 

 

 

[JustInFudge]

12 hours ago, Lurker89 said:

I really like Nabers feel like he's being underbilled here quite a bit. That being said I love the top 3 in this class more any recent class prior to them  being in the NFL. Jefferson and Lamb in 2020 will be tough to beat on actual results though.

 

I dont think people are underselling Nabers, well maybe we are but I think the conversation went the way of why are people underselling Daniels?  Nabers is a fine prospect and an obvious 1st round talent, I'm just not like blown away by him and I dont see these numbers when I watch him, like, Ive never seen him really beat press coverage.  Seems like he always has a free release and his routes are limited.  Lots of double moves and catching the ball in space. Like, I dont see any of the route tree, catches in traffic, toe tapper, incredible finger tip catch etc. you saw from Garrett Wilson.  Kinda of more like a Jameson Williams and I could be wrong, I havent done a deep dive because I've watched a ton of LSU so this is really just on what I've seen live but just my take and why I'm not keen on him at 10.  Granted, if they did take him at 10, fine, he's easy to be excited about because he's an explosive guy but idk, wouldnt be my preference.

[T0mShane]

On 2/19/2024 at 9:49 AM, JustInFudge said:

I've considered myself a draftnik since the early 2000's, it was still kind of a little insulated area of the NFL that actually required some thought and elicited solid content on the boards, an area where it seemed die hard fans were attracted too vs. the mainstream NFL. JI had a sub forum and then we created this one here and the posts/discussion were thoughtful.  It then became trendy, and everyone jumped in and started a blog or podcast and became a self proclaimed expert and the sheeple just bowed to their every word and caved to the idea that they for some reason, see things the common fan cant see, which is ridiculous. 

Personally I started to become very exhausted w/ the draft process during the Watson/Mahomes draft.  The idea that Mitch Trubisky was heads and shoulders a better prospect then these 2 absolute ******* studs, was infuriating.  The commonly shared idea that the Jets should pass on these prospects for an inferior prospect in Sam Darnold the following year, was also, infuriating.  When "Ourlads Scouting" brought a radar gun to the combine and acted like they could actually give you an accurate reading on something that nobody was even trying to test for and then sold it as gold that Watson would never make it in the NFL because his lack of MPH and people actually ran w/ that bogus nonsense and then the narrative that Mahomes, w/ an actual cannon attached to his arm, couldnt hit NFL windows, I wanted to rip my head off. 

Fast forward to the Zach Wilson draft w/ the nonsense being sold on why he was really the QB1 in the draft but yet, Lawrence was generational for no reason and the best player of the bunch, was actually a slow processing something or another despite being one of the most intelligent players in the history of the league, and oh wow look, Wilson was a mega bust, Lawrence sucks and Fields is in the record books.  lmfao.  I legit was going to stop even caring/or giving my input but when push came to shove, I still love thinking I'm the greatest scout the world has ever known and when I do get these takes right, which is often, it helps w/ my debilitating insecurities. 

 

Agree with the vast majority of this, but dude Justin Fields is bad.

[JustInFudge]

Coudnt sleep, so I was up trying to consume time...watched a bunch of "film" on Nabers.  Not like all-22 or like every individual snap but there are some youtube videos of just his targets and here is what I noticed and maybe things I missed in him as a prospect.  I'll start w/ the positive;

- his run after catch is ridiculous.  Didnt realize that it was that good.  It's almost like he finds another gear w/ the ball in hand, physical runner, breaks tackles, fight for the extra yards.

- has more boundary body control grabs then I thought he did, there are quite a few examples of some sick toe tapers on the sidelines, in the endzone, etc.  College "in" but still impressive and his general ability to stay in an attacking position upon reception is impressive, Garrett Wilson like from that perspective. 

- LSU used him in a ton of ways.  Although I really only saw him play from the slot, they got very creative getting the ball in his hands...jet sweeps,  behind the LOS swing passes, screens, etc.  A little more versatile from that perspective that I thought, reminded me of how the Cowboys use Lamb. 

concerns or lack of a better term:

- I wasnt sure why this was happening on every single play I watched from him but no joke, he gets a 8-10 yard cushion on every single play.  It's wild, I kept wondering why nobody challenges him at all at the LOS and then I saw him burn soft coverage seemingly trying to take away the deep threat numerous times.  Maybe it was bad D, maybe it was a bad corner/safety he was facing but numerous big time down field plays where he's beating what looks like a soft cover 2/3 but still flies past the secondary anyway.

- didnt see a ton of contested catches, like, very little where he's got anyone around him, I actually saw a quite a few where he just got out physical by the defenders, which is odd because he's so mean w/ the ball in hands.

- lots of broken down coverage, extended plays, which is fine but when you couple that w/ the fact he gets a free release on every single play, he seems almost destined to play the big slot and not someone you can use on the outside and there is nothing out there showing him beating man/press coverage, which makes those stats Lurker and Shane shared on him odd.  

So after watching a bit more, still not convinced this is a top 10 pick type player.  Lamb went 17, Justin Jefferson went 22.  Malik Nabers is going to go top 10?   Idk man...I mean, just look at that draft; Ruggs 12, Jeudy 14, Lamb 17, Reagor 21, Jefferson 22, Brandon Aiyuk 25, Tee Higgins 33, Michael Pittman 34.  That said, it would be easy to get excited about him at 10 as well because he could be a beautiful compliment to Wilson/Lazard or a potential FA but I think there is better value at 10 and this a deep draft for WR.  I certainly do not trust Hackett's ability to use him correctly and or Rodgers doing the needful  w/ a rookie WR, especially because I think he's going to go out of his way to prove Lazard wasnt a wasted FA signing, so yeah, there would be some mixed feelings but I think my overall opinion would be, "I get it and this could be exciting" if the Jets did take him but I highly doubt they will. 

[JustInFudge]

29 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Agree with the vast majority of this, but dude Justin Fields is bad.

Yeah, no, he's not, and I'm not going to unpack it here like I've done numerous times before but what Justin Fields has done in the NFL, is unprecedented and his improvement has been remarkable and as predicted, was the best QB in that draft. 

He will have a better career then any of the dudes coming out (maybe not Daniels) and lets just pray he doesnt end up New England.  Personally, I hope he goes to the Steelers, he'll get Tomlin back to the Super Bowl.

[Paradis]

16 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

• -  he gets a 8-10 yard cushion on every single play.  It's wild, I kept wondering why nobody challenges him at all at the LOS 
• - didnt see a ton of contested catches, like, very little where he's got anyone around him
• - lots of broken down coverage, extended plays, which is fine but couple that w/ the fact he gets a free release on every single play, 

So after watching a bit more, still not convinced this is a top 10 pick type player.

Hi, did we just become best friends? 

kidding, but pretty much exactly what i said in my OP... sure he's makes Lamb-like plays with ball in his hands, but my lord. the number of targets he sees running 8 yard INs out of the slot uncovered, is practically 50% of yardage. Miles of cushion. Add in the 1/2 hour he has to pass through 3 zones... 

Does that mean he's not a good prospect? No, of course not... but this "TOP 5" prospects declaration are laying on a lot of laurels.

[Paradis]

On 2/19/2024 at 4:57 PM, Lurker89 said:

IThe underlying metrics love Nabers. ..

YPRR VS  MAN: 2.82

YPRR VS ZONE: 3.13

20% Dominator Rating 

26% Target Share in 2023

84% catch rate in 2023

17.6 Yards per reception in 2023

89 catches on 106 targets for 1569 yards on the year.

2nd 1000+ yard season in a row.

He has gotten progressively better every year 

Top 3 WR prospects this year are amazing:

 

As a general take on all things NFL/Scouting/Soapboxing 

I find the use of Metrics/%s/Stats in these assessments/pudding proof to be wildly curious. From a pure statistical analysis standpoint having an 84% catch rate is almost meaningless. Contrasted against other players with high catch rates, this ability to correlated anything is nonsensical. 

You couldn't find a better example for when stats don't provide anything meaningful

Quote

The correlation coefficient is the specific measure that quantifies the strength of the linear relationship between two variables in a correlation analysis.

When you factor in sample pool, reliability, probability, consistency of applying these numbers across all players, in all offenses, in all conferences, against all competition, with consideration of the other players in the offense, and the defenses, down and distance, scheme of the defense, etc etc. This information is pretty much meaningless, other than to say the player wasn't awful at football in college. That's it..

But how it translated to the NFL, and the way it's thrown around -- is obtuse.