Daniels >> Nabers

[T0mShane]

22 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Yeah, no, he's not, and I'm not going to unpack it here like I've done numerous times before but what Justin Fields has done in the NFL, is unprecedented and his improvement has been remarkable and as predicted, was the best QB in that draft. 

He will have a better career then any of the dudes coming out (maybe not Daniels) and lets just pray he doesnt end up New England.  Personally, I hope he goes to the Steelers, he'll get Tomlin back to the Super Bowl.

No dude. Bad QB. Should switch to a receiving back/slot role. 

[T0mShane]

6 hours ago, Paradis said:

hands, but my lord. the number of targets he sees running 8 yard INs out of the slot uncovered, is practically 50% of yardage. Miles of cushion

Dude averaged 18 ypc and had 40 of those go over 20 yards. The “8 yard in” vs off coverage is also how Tyreek Hill lives his life.

[maury77]

@JustInFudge and @Paradis, I can't hold it against Nabers that defenses are constantly giving him that much cushion. They are respecting his speed ..... and frankly they should because there are numerous examples of him smoking SEC defenders even with the cushion. 

The 5th year explosion Daniels had does not concern me. Burrow had a similar career arc in college and, ironically enough, had a historic senior season at LSU where he won the Heisman. My greater concern for Daniels is his build. He seems thin and I'm worried that he is going to get hurt in the NFL given the way he likes to run. 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

No dude. Bad QB. Should switch to a receiving back/slot role. 

Did you know, that Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields have both played 28 games in the last 2 seasons, and MVP Lamar Jackson has 48 total TD's playing for the the second best team in the AFC and Justin Fields has 45 TD's playing for the worst team in the entire NFL, I found this interesting because Fields also has roughly 100 less pass attempts and equal rush attempts.  

You may not be aware of this because you watch the NY Jets but TD's are actually what the offense is trying to do and when they do get into what they refer to as the "end zone", it's worth 6pts.  

[JustInFudge]

7 minutes ago, maury77 said:

@JustInFudge and @Paradis, I can't hold it against Nabers that defenses are constantly giving him that much cushion. They are respecting his speed ..... and frankly they should because there are numerous examples of him smoking SEC defenders even with the cushion. 

The 5th year explosion Daniels had does not concern me. Burrow had a similar career arc in college and, ironically enough, had a historic senior season at LSU where he won the Heisman. My greater concern for Daniels is his build. He seems thin and I'm worried that he is going to get hurt in the NFL given the way he likes to run. 

As I mentioned in my post, there were numerous examples of him still blowing by guys giving huge cushions and seemingly playing cover 2/3 to take away the big play.  Still made it.  Its impressive for sure.  And again, I'm not saying Nabers isnt a good prospect, he's exciting, I just dont see this top 5 prospect in the entire draft hype. 

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, maury77 said:

The 5th year explosion Daniels had does not concern me. Burrow had a similar career arc in college and, ironically enough, had a historic senior season at LSU where he won the Heisman. My greater concern for Daniels is his build. He seems thin and I'm worried that he is going to get hurt in the NFL given the way he likes to run. 

Burrow really didnt have a similar career arc though.  He was redshirted, only started 1 game at OSU and then transferred going into his JR year.  Jayden Daniels has been starting since a true freshman where he produced similar results as he did as freshman.  He's had 55 starts.  Burrow had 29 and 28 at the same program as an upperclassman. 

[T0mShane]

41 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Did you know, that Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields have both played 28 games in the last 2 seasons, and MVP Lamar Jackson has 48 total TD's playing for the the second best team in the AFC and Justin Fields has 45 TD's playing for the worst team in the entire NFL, I found this interesting because Fields also has roughly 100 less pass attempts and equal rush attempts.  

You may not be aware of this because you watch the NY Jets but TD's are actually what the offense is trying to do and when they do get into what they refer to as the "end zone", it's worth 6pts.  

I think it’s a disservice to Lamar to compare the two guys, especially as passers. Fields threw 16 TDs last year, 17 the year before. Barely scratching past 60% completions. Abysmal on third downs. I watched a bunch of Fields last year because the Packers were on the #EnemiesList and every time he completed a pass, it looked like a mistake that worked out. 

 

[Augustiniak]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I think it’s a disservice to Lamar to compare the two guys, especially as passers. Fields threw 16 TDs last year, 17 the year before. Barely scratching past 60% completions. Abysmal on third downs. I watched a bunch of Fields last year because the Packers were on the #EnemiesList and every time he completed a pass, it looked like a mistake that worked out. 

 

Style may be similar but here’s a great illustration of why you have to watch them play and not rely on stats.  Watching fields isn’t fun if you’re a bears fan.  Gives you a heart attack in a different way than wilson did.  When wilson went back to pass i was relieved when it wasn’t a sack or turnover, but fields you have higher expectations and it just doesn’t seem to click enough of the time. 

[Adoni Beast]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Style may be similar but here’s a great illustration of why you have to watch them play and not rely on stats.  Watching fields isn’t fun if you’re a bears fan.  Gives you a heart attack in a different way than wilson did.  When wilson went back to pass i was relieved when it wasn’t a sack or turnover, but fields you have higher expectations and it just doesn’t seem to click enough of the time. 

Yeah Fields certainly isn't bad at all but he is nowhere near not only the player but the passer that Lamar Jackson is. Lamar has great timing and touch when he throws and is a passer. Fields seemingly just rifles every throw and has no touch and is more of a thrower.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Adoni Beast said:

Yeah Fields certainly isn't bad at all but he is nowhere near not only the player but the passer that Lamar Jackson is. Lamar has great timing and touch when he throws and is a passer. Fields seemingly just rifles every throw and has no touch and is more of a thrower.

I can imagine the debates if we had fields instead of wilson and the different camps.  As it stands we’re now debating which backup qb we can get and if we’ll acquire more picks to draft Michael pratt.  

[Adoni Beast]

11 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I can imagine the debates if we had fields instead of wilson and the different camps.  As it stands we’re now debating which backup qb we can get and if we’ll acquire more picks to draft Michael pratt.  

Well considering how bad Wilson has been we would be in a better situation if we had Fields the last few years but he would not have done enough to cement his status at the THE GUY, which is clearly the case in Chicago.

[Augustiniak]

6 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Well considering how bad Wilson has been we would be in a better situation if we had Fields the last few years but he would not have done enough to cement his status at the THE GUY, which is clearly the case in Chicago.

Right, we’d be in limbo where you’d have a qb who doesn’t suck but can’t get you over the hump.  

[Adoni Beast]

5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Right, we’d be in limbo where you’d have a qb who doesn’t suck but can’t get you over the hump.  

The debate this offseason would be:

• Trade Fields

• Sign Kirk Cousins

• Draft successor to Cousins

[JustInFudge]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I think it’s a disservice to Lamar to compare the two guys, especially as passers. Fields threw 16 TDs last year, 17 the year before. Barely scratching past 60% completions. Abysmal on third downs. I watched a bunch of Fields last year because the Packers were on the #EnemiesList and every time he completed a pass, it looked like a mistake that worked out. 

 

Well, I wasnt actually comparing Lamar to Justin, Lamar is obviously a superior player.  My point was to illustrate what Justin is doing is unprecedented.  You would have also seen over his last 18 games, he's accounted for 4200 yards and 34 TD's but yeah, tell me more about how bad he is.  No QB has overcome situation more than Justin Fields in the last 20 years, you'd know this if you actually did watch the Bears this year.  lol

 

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

Well, I wasnt actually comparing Lamar to Justin, Lamar is obviously a superior player.  My point was to illustrate what Justin is doing is unprecedented.  You would have also seen over his last 18 games, he's accounted for 4200 yards and 34 TD's but yeah, tell me more about how bad he is.  No QB has overcome situation more than Justin Fields in the last 20 years, you'd know this if you actually did watch the Bears this year.  lol

 

I see you keep returning to total offense, which is fine, but if you want to parse those numbers, it shows he’s an electric rushing threat and a bottom of the league passer. No offense is going to function with a QB who holds the ball for four seconds, waits for the defense to drift back into their coverages, then takes off like he’s returning a punt ten times per game. 

[JustInFudge]

57 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I see you keep returning to total offense, which is fine, but if you want to parse those numbers, it shows he’s an electric rushing threat and a bottom of the league passer. No offense is going to function with a QB who holds the ball for four seconds, waits for the defense to drift back into their coverages, then takes off like he’s returning a punt ten times per game. 

Parsed" numbers 62% 3600, 26 Td's 12 Td's

 

[Lurker89]

14 hours ago, Paradis said:

As a general take on all things NFL/Scouting/Soapboxing 

I find the use of Metrics/%s/Stats in these assessments/pudding proof to be wildly curious. From a pure statistical analysis standpoint having an 84% catch rate is almost meaningless. Contrasted against other players with high catch rates, this ability to correlated anything is nonsensical. 

You couldn't find a better example for when stats don't provide anything meaningful

When you factor in sample pool, reliability, probability, consistency of applying these numbers across all players, in all offenses, in all conferences, against all competition, with consideration of the other players in the offense, and the defenses, down and distance, scheme of the defense, etc etc. This information is pretty much meaningless, other than to say the player wasn't awful at football in college. That's it..

But how it translated to the NFL, and the way it's thrown around -- is obtuse.  

Is your stance is metrics are meaningless? That would be as foolish as relying solely on them.

 

There is nuance to actully using any numbers. I'm going to weight Nabers catch rate in the SEC against SEC defenses more than say a reciever playing in the ACC... I'm going to look at the offense and accuracy of the QB on percentage throws etc. I'm also going to use raw numbers to help paint a picture of the overall profile of the prospect and weight that profile on the level of competition they faced.

If a reciever is coming out of a lesser program or conference I'm going to expect better numbers a higher dominator rating etc. when comparing them to top players in top conferences. 

You can compare player to player  situation to situation. Don't need to use the amorphous blob of every player at the position that you postulate above to compare a handful of recievers. Yes situation affects the data, that doesn't mean you throw the baby out with the bath water, it means you assess the situation in tandem. Catch rate could be poor for one prospect because they had the most inaccurate QB in CFB... take that into account.... we know thats not the case when comparing Nabers and Odunze both played with QBs about to enter the NFL on their own merit.

We then need to determine for ourselves how to use and weight the data.

 

All data is useless if you dont use it properly. 

One should be using metrics film and a nuanced approach to meshing them.

 

Side note taking the metrics discussion out of it you don't like that I like Corley... I think the bright spots in his film speak for themselves as a mid round WR target....kid runs hard and  does good work after the catch it's not like I said he's a top WR prospect in the class. He's in the wr 20ish range of prospects this year but there are recievers ahead of him I don't like much at all like Legette and Walker.

As far as Corley goes I'm a bigger Fan Javon Baker better on his routes and attacks / high points the ball well.

 

 

[#27TheDominator]

3 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Well, I wasnt actually comparing Lamar to Justin, Lamar is obviously a superior player.  My point was to illustrate what Justin is doing is unprecedented.  You would have also seen over his last 18 games, he's accounted for 4200 yards and 34 TD's but yeah, tell me more about how bad he is.  No QB has overcome situation more than Justin Fields in the last 20 years, you'd know this if you actually did watch the Bears this year.  lol

 

@JustInFudge says Justin Fields overcomes the Chicago situation more than anyone.  DJ Moore and his agent say no one has overcome the Justin Fields situation more.

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I see you keep returning to total offense, which is fine, but if you want to parse those numbers, it shows he’s an electric rushing threat and a bottom of the league passer. No offense is going to function with a QB who holds the ball for four seconds, waits for the defense to drift back into their coverages, then takes off like he’s returning a punt ten times per game. 

10 solid punt returns per game would have gotten us to the post season!

[Paradis]

10 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Dude averaged 18 ypc and had 40 of those go over 20 yards. The “8 yard in” vs off coverage is also how Tyreek Hill lives his life.

Stop with the tyreek name drops. I’m saying this as a friend. 

[slimjasi]

I always respect your takes on WRs, but I disagree. I think Nabers is going to be the goods. 

[Paradis]

9 hours ago, maury77 said:

@JustInFudge and @Paradis, I can't hold it against Nabers that defenses are constantly giving him that much cushion. They are respecting his speed. 

I appreciate and respect this point. I don’t hold it against him. I just don’t prop him up as result of those plays - entirely. I’m only pushing back on him as a top 5 talent in ALL of the draft. Which is where he popularly lives atm.  

[slimjasi]

9 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Did you know, that Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields have both played 28 games in the last 2 seasons, and MVP Lamar Jackson has 48 total TD's playing for the the second best team in the AFC and Justin Fields has 45 TD's playing for the worst team in the entire NFL, I found this interesting because Fields also has roughly 100 less pass attempts and equal rush attempts.  

You may not be aware of this because you watch the NY Jets but TD's are actually what the offense is trying to do and when they do get into what they refer to as the "end zone", it's worth 6pts.  

Total TDs are cool, but the big efficiency stats are more telling: Namely, completion percentage, yards/attempt, and QB rating (or QBR). Lamar thoroughly outperformed Fields in all three of those. 

[#27TheDominator]

3 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I appreciate and respect this point. I don’t hold it against him. I just don’t prop him up as result of those plays - entirely. I’m only pushing back on him as a top 5 talent in ALL of the draft. Which is where he popularly lives atm.  

I feel you.  Something about Nabers seems safe.  I think that he is the kind of guy that would not have been rated that highly (compared to all prospects) a few years ago, but now he seems very clean and I think that pushes him up.

[T0mShane]

13 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Stop with the tyreek name drops. I’m saying this as a friend. 

OBJ without the coke problem

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Parsed" numbers 62% 3600, 26 Td's 12 Td's

 

I hate to do this to you, but I found this killer graphic on Twitter and boom BOOM

 

[slimjasi]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I see you keep returning to total offense, which is fine, but if you want to parse those numbers, it shows he’s an electric rushing threat and a bottom of the league passer. No offense is going to function with a QB who holds the ball for four seconds, waits for the defense to drift back into their coverages, then takes off like he’s returning a punt ten times per game. 

Yep. this

 

He's also not very efficient. Since @JustInFudge brought up Lamar:

Fields completed 61% of his passes last year. Lamar completed 67%. Fields had a QB rating of 86. Lamar had a QB rating of 103. Fields had 6.9 yards/attempt (which is pretty bad). Lamar had 8.0 yards per attempt (which is very good). It's not particularly close. 

[JustInFudge]

16 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I hate to do this to you, but I found this killer graphic on Twitter and boom BOOM

 

Again, you're taking zero context into this and not looking at his unprecedented improvement.  It's ok.  As always, I'll be proved right again, just like I did when I predicted Lamar would win another MVP and everyone said yeah yeah but peep this savvy stat I found

[JustInFudge]

22 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Total TDs are cool, but the big efficiency stats are more telling: Namely, completion percentage, yards/attempt, and QB rating (or QBR). Lamar thoroughly outperformed Fields in all three of those. 

Keep reading, never said Fields was as good as Lamar.  I was showing how he's not that far off in 100000x worse situation.  One of the worst ever for a young QB.  And yet, Fields is improving drastically and is in the records books. 

And just fyi, over that time he's 6# in TD passing percentage, pretty good efficiency right there.

[JustInFudge]

18 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Yep. this

 

He's also not very efficient. Since @JustInFudge brought up Lamar:

Fields completed 61% of his passes last year. Lamar completed 67%. Fields had a QB rating of 86. Lamar had a QB rating of 103. Fields had 6.9 yards/attempt (which is pretty bad). Lamar had 8.0 yards per attempt (which is very good). It's not particularly close. 

Again, I never compared the two, was just showing, if you have the ability to use nuance, to see what Fields is doing and overcoming.  Pretty simple but thanks for this! 

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

@JustInFudge says Justin Fields overcomes the Chicago situation more than anyone.  DJ Moore and his agent say no one has overcome the Justin Fields situation more.

4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

DJ Moore said the Bears should keep Fields and build around him.  

[slimjasi]

Just now, JustInFudge said:

Again, I never compared the two, was just showing, if you have the ability to use nuance, to see what Fields is doing and overcoming.  Pretty simple but thanks for this! 

Wouldn't the "ability to use nuance" encompass looking at stats beyond total TDs, and in particular, focusing on stats that weight total production by attempts? 
 

As I see it, the problem with your argument is that total TDs as a metric is no where near as useful as things like yards/attempt, completion %, or QBR/QB rating

4 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Keep reading, never said Fields was as good as Lamar.  I was showing how he's not that far off

But he is pretty far off. Lamar blows him away in some of those stats.  6% points in completion percentage is pretty huge over hundreds of passes. So is over a full yard in yards/attempt. And almost 20 points in QB rating? Those are large gaps. 

7 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

And just fyi, over that time he's 6# in TD passing percentage, pretty good efficiency right there.

His best stat, IMO. 

9 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

I was showing how he's not that far off in 100000x worse situation.  One of the worst ever for a young QB.  And yet, Fields is improving drastically and is in the records books. 

The bolded feels like hyperbole to me 

[JustInFudge]

9 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Wouldn't the "ability to use nuance" encompass looking at stats beyond total TDs, and in particular, focusing on stats that weight total production by attempts? 
 

As I see it, the problem with your argument is that total TDs as a metric is no where near as useful as things like yards/attempt, completion %, or QBR/QB rating

But he is pretty far off. Lamar blows him away in some of those stats.  6% points in completion percentage is pretty huge over hundreds of passes. So is over a full yard in yards/attempt. And almost 20 points in QB rating? Those are large gaps. 

His best stat, IMO. 

The bolded feels like hyperbole to me 

I dont have anything else to add.  I'm bored and done this too many times but the idea that made up stats are more important then actually scoring TD's is bonkers, but you do you.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

I dont have anything else to add.  I'm bored and done this too many times but the idea that made up stats are more important then actually scoring TD's is bonkers, but you do you.

completion %, yards/attempt, and QB rating are "made up" stats now. Wow. Interesting!

I'll let that doozy speak for itself

 

 

[derp]

10 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

As I mentioned in my post, there were numerous examples of him still blowing by guys giving huge cushions and seemingly playing cover 2/3 to take away the big play.  Still made it.  Its impressive for sure.  And again, I'm not saying Nabers isnt a good prospect, he's exciting, I just dont see this top 5 prospect in the entire draft hype. 

 

53 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I appreciate and respect this point. I don’t hold it against him. I just don’t prop him up as result of those plays - entirely. I’m only pushing back on him as a top 5 talent in ALL of the draft. Which is where he popularly lives atm.  

I think in general many guys who go in the top five when it comes to the top of the draft don’t have that top five prospect type feel. Somebody has to go high though. Not saying it should be Nabers necessarily, though I think there’s a chance he will go that high.

I think @JustInFudge made the point last page that guys like Lamb and Jefferson have gone lower recently - but they certainly would go much higher if teams got do overs on those drafts. And NFL teams love to overcorrect.

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

OBJ without the coke problem

I’m pro blow