Larz Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Thought this was interesting #5 to #3 DVOA The New York Jets’ defense reached new heights in 2023 due to one player’s improvement The linchpin of the New York Jets is their defense. Even with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the team’s core philosophy is to stop the opponent as much as possible. As Jermaine Johnson put it on NFL Network, “I mean, [the] goal every single game is to pitch a shutout… So regardless of what the offense was going through, we know as a unit on defense that we had a standard we had to uphold that we set for ourselves, and that’s zero points on the board.” After a rough first year under Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich, the Jets’ defense broke out in 2022. They ranked fifth in defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, an efficiency metric adjusted for opponent and game context) at -9.5%. In 2023, though, the Jets’ defense was even better. Their DVOA rank rose to third at -14.2%. Given their historically terrible offensive output, the defensive aptitude was that much more remarkable. One interesting change the Jets made with their defense in 2023 was a steep increase in man coverage usage. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, in 2022, they ranked 23rd in the NFL in man coverage rate (24.6%). In 2023, that rate rose to 33.3%, tied for the 10th-highest in the league. Statistically, it’s easy to trace the origins of that change. The Jets’ defense was well below average in man coverage in 2022, while they were superior in 2023. 2022: 99.0 targeted passer rating (22nd), 2.3% completion percentage over expected (26th), 7.1 yards per attempt (24th), 50.6% blitz rate (12th), 34.6% pressure rate (21st), 0.07 EPA per dropback (24th), 59% defensive success rate (14th), 16% explosive play rate (16+ yards, 27th) 2023: 80.4 targeted passer rating (2nd), -3.9% CPOE (7th), 5.7 yards per attempt (T-4th), 39.3% blitz rate (30th), 49.8% pressure rate (1st), -0.19 EPA per dropback (5th), 65.2% defensive success rate (2nd), 10.4% explosive play rate (5th) The Jets improved significantly in every single area of man coverage. Part of this can certainly be attributed to heavily increased pressure despite a significantly decreased blitz rate. Clearly, the Jets were playing man coverage not just on third down, which is when they normally blitz. This stat certainly shows how pressure impacts coverage statistics. Still, from a player perspective, it’s interesting to explore which Jets defenders may have been the drivers of this improvement. From 2022 to 2023, the Jets’ main personnel changes in coverage were from Kwon Alexander to Jamien Sherwood at linebacker and from Lamarcus Joyner to Tony Adams at safety. Neither of those adjustments caused a significant change in man coverage statistics, though. Therefore, the main force behind this improvement had to be a player with the Jets in both seasons. D.J. Reed had a better season in man coverage in 2023 than 2022. He improved his EPA per target from 0.10 to -0.14 and his coverage success rate from 50% to 58.1%. Surprisingly, Quincy Williams was not any better in man coverage in 2023 than in 2022. The biggest improvement in man coverage, though, came from nickel cornerback Michael Carter II. From Year 2 to Year 3, Carter II took a monumental leap. While Jets fans know that he is one of the most underrated players in the NFL, this jump in his man coverage production largely escaped the eye test. 2022: 11-for-18 (61.1%), 200 yards, 1:0 TD:INT, 117.8 rating, 5.8% CPOE, 0.83 EPA per target, 50% tight window %, 44.4% coverage success rate, 2.0 yards per cover snap 2023: 10-for-28 (35.7%), 86 yards, 1:0 TD:INT, 56.5 rating, -8.4% CPOE, -0.47 EPA per target, 60.7% tight window %, 75% coverage success rate, 0.7 yards per cover snap Across the board, Carter’s numbers improved tremendously. This directly correlates with the Jets’ overall success in man coverage in 2023. As teams shied away from Sauce Gardner in man coverage, they turned toward targeting Carter, and he delivered. This is yet another reason that the Jets should extend Carter this offseason. He is entering the final year of his deal and has shown clear ascension as a player. He is even more important to the Jets’ defense than initially meets the eye. In many ways, Carter is the best draft pick Joe Douglas has made. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32EBoozer Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 What do folks think an extension for MCII would look like? Kenny Moore is 28 yo $30 million ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Colts and Moore have agreed on a three-year, $30 million extension. The deal makes Moore the 19th-highest-paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual value – first among slot corners – and keeps him in Indy through the 2026 season.Mar 12, 2024 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbia Jet Fan Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 16 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said: What do folks think an extension for MCII would look like? Kenny Moore is 28 yo $30 million ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Colts and Moore have agreed on a three-year, $30 million extension. The deal makes Moore the 19th-highest-paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual value – first among slot corners – and keeps him in Indy through the 2026 season.Mar 12, 2024 This happened this offseason as well: https://www.nfl.com/news/bills-taron-johnson-extension-through-2027-season MCII should be in this range. This is like Quinnen again (albeit with smaller dollars). The market is defined - MCII is good enough to want to break it - just give him his 3 year $30-$32mm and move on. The more we wait the higher the cost will be... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claymation Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 They drafted Stiggers and Key to replace some of these players. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Sauce will get paid eventually and we won’t be able to have all 3 once his cap hit increases significantly. But that wont be until 2027. Until then, I think the best way to allocate resources is to extend DJ Reed and MC2. If McD hits, then we likely do not extend Hassan Reddick. We can get a 3rd edge high in the draft in 2025. How much cap space we can allocate to corner depends on how much we wont need to allocate edge if McD hits. Having all 3 corners and an expensive edge rusher doesn't work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe W. Namath Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 MC 2 is a beast. A great later round pick by the master. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARodJetsFan Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 11 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said: MC 2 is a beast. A great later round pick by the master. I think the Jets would be smart to extend him THIS off-season or at worst, during the 2024 season. You don't want all your home-grown talent, to walk in free-agency ala Bryce Huff. This is one guy we need to keep home. Get her done JD. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lith Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 I am wondering if part of the reason we have not heard much about an extension for DJ Reed is because of Carter. They are going to have to pay Sauce someday. Probably can't afford to give big $ extensions to all 3 guys so play the comp pick game with Reed and sign Carter who is younger and probably going to be cheaper. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rangerous Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Good reason to try and keep reed, sauce, and carter together beyond this season. The downside is a whole lot of cap space will be needed for these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenFish Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 1 hour ago, Claymation said: They drafted Stiggers and Key to replace some of these players. In his first 4 drafts, Joe Douglas has drafted 19 day 3 prospects. Of those 19, only 1 has become a starter for the Jets (MC2). JD has done a decent job on day 3 and udfa. But that success has typically come from getting good depth players and quality special teamers. I would not be planning for Stiggers or Key to be starters. Key might not even make the 53 man roster this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 You wanna pay the slot corner or Breece Hall? I’d gamble on them finding and developing another slot CB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varjet Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Michael Carter will be worth $10+mm/year starting in 2025. He makes $3.3mm this year. Do that is $33mm over 4 years. The Jets can basically restructure him this year to pay him $8mm year for the next years, with a bunch guaranteed. But, without doing the deep math, I don’t know they do that without increasing the salary cap. I guess over way would be to restructure DJ Reed, so that the sum of their cap spaces for 2024 is lower. I think that is doable. We all love Sauce, but he is not getting paid until 2025, at the earliest, He is under contract for 2 more years, plus an option. The AR8 bill will become due, that will be a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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