Has Joe Douglas Learned from Previous Draft Busts?

[JetNation]

New York Jets GM Joe Douglas has had his fair share of hits and misses when picking players out of the college ranks. But has he learned a valuable lesson from two of his biggest gaffes?

Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson, Mekhi Becton and Zach Wilson represent the very definition of mixed results. Listen in, or watch the video, as Glenn Naughton talks about Joe Douglas and his history when it comes to the NY Jets Draft.

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The post Has Joe Douglas Learned from Previous Draft Busts? appeared first on JetNation.com - New York Jets Blog & Forum.

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[jago]

mekhi and zach were HR swings early in his contract.
smaller schools, physically gifted to the eye, weaknesses overlooked.
not giving him a free pass but understand the m.o.

[varjet]

The 2022 Draft was great and he appeared to get it.

Reaching for a 230 lb DE in the 2023 Draft was probably not a great move.  

The 2024 Draft feels more Ravens/Eagles like.  

I think when you are a good team with a .500+ record, you can reach in the bottom of the first round for players with high upside.

When you are a below .500 team that needs to feel holes with capable players, you take the safe picks at the top of the round. 

[Jack Straw]

31 minutes ago, jago said:

mekhi and zach were HR swings early in his contract.
smaller schools, physically gifted to the eye, weaknesses overlooked.
not giving him a free pass but understand the m.o.

Louisville has produced OL studs like Breno Giacomini. 

[FootballLove]

I think early on Joe was attracted to prospects with huge upside (but also huge downside as well). He'd fall in love with the upside, and kinda sweep possible downside under the rug. I know it's not easy sweeping 400+ pounds under the rug, but Joe managed.

 

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[rangerous]

18 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

Louisville has produced OL studs like Breno Giacomini. 

what about the hitman?

[rangerous]

i think i'd be more concerned about the picks like polite or zuniga or mims or moore.  those four guys, if they were good, would have had a team impact as good as becton or even zach.

[Warfish]

After five years, his decisions at WR have been so poor, he had to sign a hurt Mike Williams to be his #2 WR.

After five years, his decisions at OL have been so poor, he had to sign several old, and some fragile, veteran O-linemen,

After five years, his decisions at QB have been so poor he had to trade the house to get an old Aaron Rodgers.

As of today:

JD Pro:  Traded Adams and Darnold.  Drafted Sauce/Wilson/Hall.  Built a solid Defense.  Improved the roster overall.

JD Cons:  Never fielded a team than had a winning record.  Offenses ranked at the bottom of the league every year of his tenure.  Mostly bad drafts outside the "big three" above.  Horrible busts for us in Wilson, Becton, Mims, AVT (till he stays healthy and proved otherwise), Moore (bust for US the way it played out), still questionable picks in JJ and McDonald (very low impact for #1 picks so far).  Mostly low0impact role players later in drafts (replacement-level guys).  Mostly misses in FA with several big misses.  

JD's legacy is all-in on his decisions that built the 2024 Jets roster.  If we win, he saves himself and his legacy.  If we lose or fail to make the playoffs, JD is likely to be canned and leave with a questionable legacy for his time here at best.

[bicketybam]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

After five years, his decisions at WR have been so poor, he had to sign a hurt Mike Williams to be his #2 WR.

After five years, his decisions at OL have been so poor, he had to sign several old, and some fragile, veteran O-linemen,

After five years, his decisions at QB have been so poor he had to trade the house to get an old Aaron Rodgers.

As of today:

JD Pro:  Traded Adams and Darnold.  Drafted Sauce/Wilson/Hall.  Built a solid Defense.  Improved the roster overall.

JD Cons:  Never fielded a team than had a winning record.  Offenses ranked at the bottom of the league every year of his tenure.  Mostly bad drafts outside the "big three" above.  Horrible busts for us in Wilson, Becton, Mims, AVT (till he stays healthy and proved otherwise), Moore (bust for US the way it played out), still questionable picks in JJ and McDonald (very low impact for #1 picks so far).  Mostly low0impact role players later in drafts (replacement-level guys).  Mostly misses in FA with several big misses.  

JD's legacy is all-in on his decisions that built the 2024 Jets roster.  If we win, he saves himself and his legacy.  If we lose or fail to make the playoffs, JD is likely to be canned and leave with a questionable legacy for his time here at best.

Did AVT have an injury history in college? If he did, then it's a bad job by Douglas. If he didn't, I can't call him a bust for getting injured. He's been mostly good when he plays, and his work ethic has never been questioned (unlike Becton.) I think at the very least the jury is still out on him and I wouldn't label him a bust.

[Warfish]

47 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

Did AVT have an injury history in college? If he did, then it's a bad job by Douglas. If he didn't, I can't call him a bust for getting injured. He's been mostly good when he plays, and his work ethic has never been questioned (unlike Becton.) I think at the very least the jury is still out on him and I wouldn't label him a bust.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  In evaluation of a pick (and a GM), the results are all that matters at the end of the day. 

If a GM drafts a guy who sucks, it's a bust.  If he drafts a guy who is hurt all the time, it's a bust.  If he drafts a guy who is a head case and mental health's his way out of the league, it's a bust.  The "why" may be different in each case, and how predictable each case was or wasn't may be different, but the result is (generally) the same:  a pick who fails to produce or to play up to his draft slot.  Not every bust is obvious, not every reason a guy busts can be predicted.

As for AVT specifically, again, any ultimate evaluation of him will depends on his future, but so far, having missed the majority of the past 2 seasons, he (just like Becton, who similarly missed even more, almost all of his 2nd and 3rd seasons) must be considered a bust as a 14th overall pick.  Of course, unlike Becton the Eagle, AVT did play mostly good when healthy, and AVT still has a year with us (at minimum) to change that perception by playing all 17 in 2024, and playing great doing so. 

And we all hope he does, we need him if we're to be a playoff team in 2024.

[THE BARON]

21 hours ago, jago said:

mekhi and zach were HR swings early in his contract.
smaller schools, physically gifted to the eye, weaknesses overlooked.
not giving him a free pass but understand the m.o.

and I had both on my do not draft list.  both screamed bust.  a new gm should always go for the safest picks especially when a roster is one big hole.  if  you are stacked, by all means, swing for the fence once in a while, but never start out going all in on a long-shot,

to put it in jd's language...

dont look for "freaks" look for football players. 

[Bobby816]

Some of you are still on several years ago. With a bad pick in Wilson.

 

3 drafts ago he had one of the best drafts ever for us with 4 incredible players chosen for us in the 1st 35 picks of the draft. Has hit on all 4 of them. 3 guys arguably already top 10 at there respected positions. That's incredible.

Last years draft is still rather unknown. Mac should see more snaps this year so he's not a bust. We just haven't seen enough from him. Tippman will start this year and we've heard nothing but good things about him.

And this year we have to really like our 1st few picks. Olu likely wont start this year unless an injury occurs. But he absolutely was worthy of the draft spot we got him and there's no reason to think he wont be at minimum, An above average LT for us for years. Corley fits in great to this WR room. And furthermore we look to have a good #2 back in Allen already. If nothing else will help us in short yardage and goal line type situations.

[slimjasi]

21 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Some of you are still on several years ago. With a bad pick in Wilson.

 

3 drafts ago he had one of the best drafts ever for us with 4 incredible players chosen for us in the 1st 35 picks of the draft. Has hit on all 4 of them. 3 guys arguably already top 10 at there respected positions. That's incredible.

Last years draft is still rather unknown. Mac should see more snaps this year so he's not a bust. We just haven't seen enough from him. Tippman will start this year and we've heard nothing but good things about him.

And this year we have to really like our 1st few picks. Olu likely wont start this year unless an injury occurs. But he absolutely was worthy of the draft spot we got him and there's no reason to think he wont be at minimum, An above average LT for us for years. Corley fits in great to this WR room. And furthermore we look to have a good #2 back in Allen already. If nothing else will help us in short yardage and goal line type situations.

I've been a Douglas defender and think he's the best GM we've had in a long time, but to be fair, whiffing on the #2 overall pick as badly as he did is usually a job ender. He's very fortunate to still be employed. It's time to WIN

[rangerous]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

After five years, his decisions at WR have been so poor, he had to sign a hurt Mike Williams to be his #2 WR.

After five years, his decisions at OL have been so poor, he had to sign several old, and some fragile, veteran O-linemen,

After five years, his decisions at QB have been so poor he had to trade the house to get an old Aaron Rodgers.

As of today:

JD Pro:  Traded Adams and Darnold.  Drafted Sauce/Wilson/Hall.  Built a solid Defense.  Improved the roster overall.

JD Cons:  Never fielded a team than had a winning record.  Offenses ranked at the bottom of the league every year of his tenure.  Mostly bad drafts outside the "big three" above.  Horrible busts for us in Wilson, Becton, Mims, AVT (till he stays healthy and proved otherwise), Moore (bust for US the way it played out), still questionable picks in JJ and McDonald (very low impact for #1 picks so far).  Mostly low0impact role players later in drafts (replacement-level guys).  Mostly misses in FA with several big misses.  

JD's legacy is all-in on his decisions that built the 2024 Jets roster.  If we win, he saves himself and his legacy.  If we lose or fail to make the playoffs, JD is likely to be canned and leave with a questionable legacy for his time here at best.

Some good points but I think you left out his biggest mistake in hiring saleh.  I’m not sure you can put JJ in the questionable category since he did pretty well last season.

[Jack Straw]

One of Joe D's better qualities is that he is not Mike Maccagnan or John Idzik. These are the types of guys who will replace Joe D, if and when that day comes.

Let's keep that in mind.

[#27TheDominator]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

After five years, his decisions at WR have been so poor, he had to sign a hurt Mike Williams to be his #2 WR.

After five years, his decisions at OL have been so poor, he had to sign several old, and some fragile, veteran O-linemen,

After five years, his decisions at QB have been so poor he had to trade the house to get an old Aaron Rodgers.

As of today:

JD Pro:  Traded Adams and Darnold.  Drafted Sauce/Wilson/Hall.  Built a solid Defense.  Improved the roster overall.

JD Cons:  Never fielded a team than had a winning record.  Offenses ranked at the bottom of the league every year of his tenure.  Mostly bad drafts outside the "big three" above.  Horrible busts for us in Wilson, Becton, Mims, AVT (till he stays healthy and proved otherwise), Moore (bust for US the way it played out), still questionable picks in JJ and McDonald (very low impact for #1 picks so far).  Mostly low0impact role players later in drafts (replacement-level guys).  Mostly misses in FA with several big misses.  

JD's legacy is all-in on his decisions that built the 2024 Jets roster.  If we win, he saves himself and his legacy.  If we lose or fail to make the playoffs, JD is likely to be canned and leave with a questionable legacy for his time here at best.

Horrible busts?  I get saying the jury is still out on AVT, JJ and McDonald, but horrible busts?  Moore was not a horrible bust.  What did they get for him?  A 3rd?  After using up half his contract.  It's the same kind of hyperbole you are railing against that acts like every good draft pick is a franchise player.  There are great picks, good picks, bad picks, sh*tty picks and "horrible busts."   Wilson and Mims were horrible busts.  I can see putting Becton in that camp, but generally I'd just term him a bad pick.  It's not like all these guys were Hackenberg.

The thing that bothers me about him most is exactly the same issue that I had with Mangini.  They build the team with an emphasis on effort and competition.  Then they hand the reigns over to a maniacal win now vet QB.  After all the talk, not exactly walking the walk.  

[Claymation]

32 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Horrible busts?  I get saying the jury is still out on AVT, JJ and McDonald, but horrible busts?  Moore was not a horrible bust.  What did they get for him?  A 3rd?  After using up half his contract.  It's the same kind of hyperbole you are railing against that acts like every good draft pick is a franchise player.  There are great picks, good picks, bad picks, sh*tty picks and "horrible busts."   Wilson and Mims were horrible busts.  I can see putting Becton in that camp, but generally I'd just term him a bad pick.  It's not like all these guys were Hackenberg.

The thing that bothers me about him most is exactly the same issue that I had with Mangini.  They build the team with an emphasis on effort and competition.  Then they hand the reigns over to a maniacal win now vet QB.  After all the talk, not exactly walking the walk.  

They tried developing a young QB, but used a MiLF that him breathing through the wrong eye lid.

[Rich Thornburgh]

21 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

One of Joe D's better qualities is that he is not Mike Maccagnan or John Idzik. These are the types of guys who will replace Joe D, if and when that day comes.

Let's keep that in mind.

Macagnan was the worst GM we have ever had.  Idzik now in retrospect got very little time.  He had a horrible 2013 draft but that draft overall was bad for the entire league.  It really was probably the most talent deprived nfl draft of my lifetime.  Idzik also created $50 million in cap room for Macagnan and the decision to not sign Revis looks like it was a Woody call

[Rich Thornburgh]

19 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Horrible busts?  I get saying the jury is still out on AVT, JJ and McDonald, but horrible busts?  Moore was not a horrible bust.  What did they get for him?  A 3rd?  After using up half his contract.  It's the same kind of hyperbole you are railing against that acts like every good draft pick is a franchise player.  There are great picks, good picks, bad picks, sh*tty picks and "horrible busts."   Wilson and Mims were horrible busts.  I can see putting Becton in that camp, but generally I'd just term him a bad pick.  It's not like all these guys were Hackenberg.

The thing that bothers me about him most is exactly the same issue that I had with Mangini.  They build the team with an emphasis on effort and competition.  Then they hand the reigns over to a maniacal win now vet QB.  After all the talk, not exactly walking the walk.  

Moore was definitely a bust but to be fair, Zach 

[Jack Straw]

7 minutes ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Macagnan was the worst GM we have ever had.  Idzik now in retrospect got very little time.  He had a horrible 2013 draft but that draft overall was bad for the entire league.  It really was probably the most talent deprived nfl draft of my lifetime.  Idzik also created $50 million in cap room for Macagnan and the decision to not sign Revis looks like it was a Woody call

Idzik was effectively a private-equity guy who stripped the organization down so that it could be re-built. The Jets were effectively bankrupt during his time there. His job was to sell off assets to get the team ready for the rebuild. He did that.

But he was still an awful general manager. 

[Rich Thornburgh]

1 minute ago, Jack Straw said:

Idzik was effectively a private-equity guy who stripped the organization down so that it could be re-built. The Jets were effectively bankrupt during his time there. His job was to sell off assets to get the team ready for the rebuild. He did that.

But he was still an awful general manager. 

Again I think in retrospect he got very little time and he’s being judged based on a draft that overall was bad for everyone.  The 2013 draft was a landfill

 I remember Chance Warmack was the guy we were supposed to draft and he sucked

[#27TheDominator]

14 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Idzik was effectively a private-equity guy who stripped the organization down so that it could be re-built. The Jets were effectively bankrupt during his time there. His job was to sell off assets to get the team ready for the rebuild. He did that.

But he was still an awful general manager. 

I think this is the theory Shane tries to fly.

You don't "get ready" to rebuild.  You rebuild.  NFL teams are turned over in 3 years ALL THE TIME.  Idzik was canned because he took what he got selling off assets and added very little of value.  After two years he had an atrocity with some cap space.  Douglas has not had a winning season despite his completely turning over the roster, but it is obvious that the team he built has some talent.  That's why he hasn't been fired.  The issue is he has to win eventually and that eventuality is now.  This is pretty tiresome.  Also, by hitching his wagon to Rodgers his roster management won't matter much since we will be forced to have a full re-set whether that nutbag rides off into the sunset or immolates himself in the towering inferno that is the New York Jets.

[AFJF]

On 6/26/2024 at 4:39 PM, bicketybam said:

Did AVT have an injury history in college? If he did, then it's a bad job by Douglas. If he didn't, I can't call him a bust for getting injured. He's been mostly good when he plays, and his work ethic has never been questioned (unlike Becton.) I think at the very least the jury is still out on him and I wouldn't label him a bust.

No injury histories for Becton or AVT.  If they stay healthy, Douglas is responsible for building one of the best young OL in the NFL.  But because a handful of fans dislike the guy so much they want all context removed and the guy who has built one of the best rosters in the NFL to be fired.

[AFJF]

On 6/26/2024 at 5:26 PM, Warfish said:

We'll have to agree to disagree.  In evaluation of a pick (and a GM), the results are all that matters at the end of the day. 

If a GM drafts a guy who sucks, it's a bust.  If he drafts a guy who is hurt all the time, it's a bust.  If he drafts a guy who is a head case and mental health's his way out of the league, it's a bust.  The "why" may be different in each case, and how predictable each case was or wasn't may be different, but the result is (generally) the same:  a pick who fails to produce or to play up to his draft slot.  Not every bust is obvious, not every reason a guy busts can be predicted.

As for AVT specifically, again, any ultimate evaluation of him will depends on his future, but so far, having missed the majority of the past 2 seasons, he (just like Becton, who similarly missed even more, almost all of his 2nd and 3rd seasons) must be considered a bust as a 14th overall pick.  Of course, unlike Becton the Eagle, AVT did play mostly good when healthy, and AVT still has a year with us (at minimum) to change that perception by playing all 17 in 2024, and playing great doing so. 

And we all hope he does, we need him if we're to be a playoff team in 2024.

Ozzie Newsome would have been out on his ass in Baltimore if some of you guys were able to make the call.

Lucky for Ravens fans they had ownership that was able to see the big picture.