Good explainer on why passing offenses suck now

[T0mShane]

It’s a little verbose, but ties a neat bow on what we’ve seen so far from offenses and why everyone is throwing for 175 yards per game. If you’re not prone to click, the short summary is:

1. Everyone is running with two deep safety defenses, which auto-triggers QBs to dump it off short. The average air yards per target this season is historically low for the modern era, as is success rate (a measure of how well QBs are faring at pursuing and achieving first downs). Immobile QBs are at a steep disadvantage because running two safeties into the back half opens up running lanes for a rushing attempt that the defense can no longer account for. 
 

2. Young, inexperienced QBs are getting squished by having to put together longer scoring drives which they’re not really equipped to do. The more plays an offense has to engineer on any drive obviously raises the likelihood that you’ll get a penalty or a turnover on that drive, which is hard to overcome. 
 

3. His solution is that QBs should throw it deep anyway. Despite the defenses running two safeties deep, that doesn’t mean those safeties are any good. Consider last week’s Bengals—Commanders game where both Burrow and Daniels made a lot of hay throwing it over the top. 

[T0mShane]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/9/27/24255624/nfl-week-4-what-happened-to-passing-offense

[Wit]

Also I guess older immobile but bright superstar QBs with power arms can win time of
Possession and even air it out once in a while to blow open a game


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Jet_Engine1]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s a little verbose, but ties a neat bow on what we’ve seen so far from offenses and why everyone is throwing for 175 yards per game. If you’re not prone to click, the short summary is:

1. Everyone is running with two deep safety defenses, which auto-triggers QBs to dump it off short. The average air yards per target this season is historically low for the modern era, as is success rate (a measure of how well QBs are faring at pursuing and achieving first downs). Immobile QBs are at a steep disadvantage because running two safeties into the back half opens up running lanes for a rushing attempt that the defense can no longer account for. 
 

2. Young, inexperienced QBs are getting squished by having to put together longer scoring drives which they’re not really equipped to do. The more plays an offense has to engineer on any drive obviously raises the likelihood that you’ll get a penalty or a turnover on that drive, which is hard to overcome. 
 

3. His solution is that QBs should throw it deep anyway. Despite the defenses running two safeties deep, that doesn’t mean those safeties are any good. Consider last week’s Bengals—Commanders game where both Burrow and Daniels made a lot of hay throwing it over the top. 

Tldr; Most coaches are playing scared on both sides of the ball

[Augustiniak]

Sounds like chad Pennington was born at the wrong time 

[T0mShane]

It’s not mentioned in the piece, but I also think the officiating is way too overzealous, and plays are getting called back because some TE on the opposite side of the field has to get a ticky tack holding penalty called against him that didn’t even factor into the play. If you see a team pull off a ten, twelve play drive, they usually had to overcome two different penalties on that drive. It feels like they’re allowing more DPI to happen, but are now obsessed with handing out illegal formation and holding calls. Refs have to get their sh*t together. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

It’s not mentioned in the piece, but I also think the officiating is way too overzealous, and plays are getting called back because some TE on the opposite side of the field has to get a ticky tack holding penalty called against him that didn’t even factor into the play. If you see a team pull off a ten, twelve play drive, they usually had to overcome two different penalties on that drive. It feels like they’re allowing more DPI to happen, but are now obsessed with handing out illegal formation and holding calls. Refs have to get their sh*t together. 

I’m beginning to think it’s not so much the refs but all the rules.  There’s too much stuff you can’t do while you’re trying to kill people out there.  I can’t celebrate any play the jets make until i don’t see the yellow afterwards.  

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I’m beginning to think it’s not so much the refs but all the rules.  There’s too much stuff you can’t do while you’re trying to kill people out there.  I can’t celebrate any play the jets make until i don’t see the yellow afterwards.  

In the olden days, refs had more discretion as to what penalties got called based on whether those infractions impacted the actual play. Like, if the backside tackle holds a little bit on a running play that went for 20 on the opposite side of the field, that used to never get called. Now, refs know that the league office is going to see that non-call in HD so they drop the flag. 

[FidelioJet]

Is it me or hasn't this been going on forever? 

What's new about two deep safeties and a bend don't break defense?

Seems to me that this is just reaching for an answer to the obvious.  QB play is bad.

[Bleedin Green]

The NFL has forever gone in cycles. Teams wildly over-commit to the newest fad concept until others go out of their way to plan to defend against that and only that. Then there are adjustments to wildly exploit that commitment, tearing apart the opposing defense and starting the cycle all over again.

The cover 2 was a killer defense in the early 2000s and it wasn't that teams randomly decided to stop playing it, but rather it's weaknesses were exploited and we were suddenly watching TD records getting beat left and right even before the current era of rule changes. Everyone's favorite D was then quickly deemed as the "cover who"

The truth is for the millions they all get paid, the overwhelming majority of NFL execs are far more reactive than proactive, so this is what we get.

[FidelioJet]

21 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s not mentioned in the piece, but I also think the officiating is way too overzealous, and plays are getting called back because some TE on the opposite side of the field has to get a ticky tack holding penalty called against him that didn’t even factor into the play. If you see a team pull off a ten, twelve play drive, they usually had to overcome two different penalties on that drive. It feels like they’re allowing more DPI to happen, but are now obsessed with handing out illegal formation and holding calls. Refs have to get their sh*t together. 

This, to me, seems to be a pretty major issue. 

Putting together long sustained drives isn't easy but a good disciplined offense will have a field day with it.  Problem is a 10 yard penalty is a killer.

We need to let them play a bit.

[Bleedin Green]

8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

In the olden days, refs had more discretion as to what penalties got called based on whether those infractions impacted the actual play. Like, if the backside tackle holds a little bit on a running play that went for 20 on the opposite side of the field, that used to never get called. Now, refs know that the league office is going to see that non-call in HD so they drop the flag. 

True, but part of why that changed is because of the uproar over how wildly biased officiating was on nearly every play. That's still true today of course, but now they're simply forced to be more blatant about it than they used to be, so really have to commit to it.

I said it at the time, the refs strike was one of the greatest things in football, because the only real difference was even the darling teams were now also getting screwed by the same horrific calls, and just incessantly crying at a record rate.

[Bobby816]

So QBs are being 🐱s

[Joe W. Namath]

Theres not many good qbs.  Thats the reason.

The days of brady, manning, brees, big ben, prime rodgers etc are over.

 

[Larz]

week 3

[T0mShane]

I find it interesting that the two teams who have actually moved the ball through the air are the two teams that still feature a fullback: Cowboys and Niners. A little more difficult to sit back in two-high if the QB can simply audible into a power run set. 

[T0mShane]

8 minutes ago, Bleedin Green said:

True, but part of why that changed is because of the uproar over how wildly biased officiating was on nearly every play. That's still true today of course, but now they're simply forced to be more blatant about it than they used to be, so really have to commit to it.

I said it at the time, the refs strike was one of the greatest things in football, because the only real difference was even the darling teams were now also getting screwed by the same horrific calls, and just incessantly crying at a record rate.

Yeah, but seeing flags on what feels like any successful offensive play makes me wistful for the days when openly corrupt refs were swallowing whistles. 

[Joe W. Namath]

Also qbs run more now.  Josh allen, lamar, jalen hurts, now daniels etc.

So qbs who run more plus lack of HOF passing qbs in the league now is y passing is down.

Has nothing to do w/ the refs or defenses.

[Joe W. Namath]

And even mahomes is hitting that 30 year old drop in play for a qb.  Its testosterone, HGH, EPO and adderral time for him very soon.

[RutgersJetFan]

Good AND verbose? Oh boy

[T0mShane]

13 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

now is y passing

Are you typing this on a Motorola Razr?