Conspiracy Theory Over Conventional Wisdom Invloving The Ducasse Pick

[bitonti]

I saw this player first hand, so take it FWIW but ducasse doesn't have true NFL LT upside.

He might be able to play it and do a servicable job like Jason Fabini, but it would be far from ideal.

He's a guard first, a right tackle second. an emergency Left tackle? ok maybe in an emergency but not a real starter.

[RutgersJetFan]

The problem with this entire theory is that it's based on complete misevaluation of Brick as a player. Which, at this point is borderline insane even for Jet fans. By the end of last season, even the most fervent "he wasn't worth a top 5 pick" people had come around. Dude ran Johnny Triznaine on the entire NFL last season. Enough already.

And if the guy had LT potential, he would have gone a lot earlier.

[Aten]

The problem with this entire theory is that it's based on complete misevaluation of Brick as a player.

This obv. Wake me up when one of Thomas or Long or Clady returns to his rookie form and best left tackle in the NFL becomes an actual debate. He's entitled to and will get a bump on the going rate, but it's not going to be 40% over the Peters extension and Smith's slot deal so I dunno where this 14M nonsense is coming from.

[SenorGato]

The problem with this entire theory is that it's based on complete misevaluation of Brick as a player. Which, at this point is borderline insane even for Jet fans. By the end of last season, even the most fervent "he wasn't worth a top 5 pick" people had come around. Dude ran Johnny Triznaine on the entire NFL last season. Enough already.

And if the guy had LT potential, he would have gone a lot earlier.

Seriously...it's not about how many Pro Bowls he's started.

[SMC]

You don't let a starting LT go so you can re-sign a MLB or a WR or a No. 2 CB.

Seriously. I don't get the money argument at all. There's (arguably) only 2 players on the Jets getting contract priority over Brick (Revis and Mangold).

If the choice is to re-sign Brick or Harris, Harris is gone. The same with Edwards, Cromartie, Edwards, and Holmes. All of them would be gone before Brick.

In other words, Tannenbaum is not going to let his day-1 starting LT walk in order to re-sign 3 guys on 1 year rentals or a MLB taken in the 2nd round.

I don't get it at all. Brick has lived up to his contract and gotten better every year. He's a starting LT. Tannenbaum is going to say buhbye so he can re-sign a No. 3 WR in Holmes? Or Edwards? Or the No. 2 CB in Cromartie after just taking a CB in the 1st round?

[SMC]

We'll see what Brick does with Slauson or Ducasse next to him this year, and we'll see where the Jets offense decides it wants to go this season. They picked up weapons to be more of a passing team, and if they keep moving in that direction, they'll have to think long and hard about holding onto Ferguson.

But if they decide that they want to stick to being a power running team, and D'Brick is looking for elite LT pay, he may have to find it elsewhere. The Jets could use a bigger LT for those purposes - and Ducasse has about 30 pounds on him already.

Vlad's upside--best case scenario--is RT.

It doesn't make sense to believe that a guy who is at best projected in a few years to be a RT, is here to replace the guy whose been a DAY 1 starter and is one of the best young LTs in the NFL.

Further, Vlad's contract will expire at the end of the 2013 season while Brick's contract expires at the end of 2011.

Why is that significant? Because under the OP scenario the Jets would have to give Vlad a big contract soon after Brick leaves, but in doing so, the Jets would have been forced to give a big contract to a 2 year starter at LT over giving one to a 6 year starter in Brick.

You hate Bradway, Slats, but letting Brick go is Bradwayesque in creating a revolving door at LT where the Jets let the starter walk and every 2 years have to replace them/

Me? I pay Brick as why the Jets drafted him. They drafted him to be their LT for the next 12 years and I see absolutely ZERO reason not to follow through on that plan.

[Sperm Edwards]

You know perfectly well that nobody can answer that.

What I know is that most are not willing to answer that.

Go to Jason's awesome cap page, see what everyone is making for 2011 and beyond, and know that upcoming we have:

Revis under contract but wants a new deal (likely getting one at ~$15M per)

Ferguson due $10M in 2011 and wants a new deal

Mangold a free agent

Harris a free agent

Edwards a free agent

Cromartie a free agent

Holmes a free agent

Ellis a free agent

Pool is a free agent

ESmith is a free agent

BSmith is a free agent

Pouha a free agent

Turner is a free agent

BThomas entering the final year of his deal

Leonhard entering the final year of his deal

Sanchez cap number bumped up to $16.5M through rookie incentives met

Take a look at that list of starters (and some of our more key backups) whose contacts are up after this season. Go re-read it again so it sinks in.

Everyone would say keep him if he only wanted $4M per year. So simply saying "keep him" and listing why he's good is a cop-out answer.

How much do you think he's worth?

[Aten]

What I know is that most are not willing to answer that.

It has nothing to do with willing. It's more that I read your demand for a number with the 2011 cap unknown as conceding the point.

[Aten]

Everyone would say keep him if he only wanted $4M per year. So simply saying "keep him" and listing why he's good is a cop-out answer.

Demanding a number in a vacuum is a cop-out. Saying 'just keep him' is merely insufficiently specific.

[Sperm Edwards]

It has nothing to do with willing. It's more that I read your demand for a number with the 2011 cap unknown as conceding the point.

No fooling. Yet here people are demanding that we re-sign him (quite possibly for top-3 OL money) without knowing what the cap situation is.

My point is simple: I want to keep him here for the next 8+ seasons just like everyone else. But every player has a price, above which the team is better off looking in another direction. To take an extreme example, if Ferguson wants $28M per season that is too much no matter how good anyone thinks he is.

That was (I believe) the premise behind the thread starter. If Brick's demands are out of line with what we can pay, and still stay under the cap without ripping multiple holes in the team elsewhere, then he's not worth it. That number may be $8M per season, $10M per, $12M per, or whatever. But above a certain number, whatever that number is, you're better off looking elsewhere. It has nothing to do with a desire to replace Ferguson with Ducasse at LT.

Demanding a number in a vacuum is a cop-out. Saying 'just keep him' is merely insufficiently specific.

I'll rephrase the situation then. Assume a fictional situation where the future of the salary cap is a known quantity, it is roughly the same $120M-ish that it is today, and goes up about 5% a year - AND Woody sells all his PSL's for people worried about that being a reason. Now, what is D'Brickashaw Ferguson worth?

[Aten]

I'll rephrase the situation then. Assume a fictional situation where the future of the salary cap is a known quantity, it is roughly the same $120M-ish that it is today, and goes up about 5% a year - AND Woody sells all his PSL's for people worried about that being a reason. Now, what is D'Brickashaw Ferguson worth?

7 years, 80M, 35M in the first three.

[Sperm Edwards]

7 years, 80M, 35M in the first three.

Guaranteed money is one of the things that doesn't concern me with him as it might with others. The guy never misses a start.

But thank you for at least a fair answer. Agreeing or disagreeing on the compensation is the only issue. I sure as hell don't want to delve into the unknown with the LT position. But if his demands are $14-15M per season there are other people who we can find to play the position.

[Aten]

But if his demands are $14-15M per season there are other people who we can find to play the position.

Those are just crazy made-up numbers, though. Is there an actual reason to think that he'd demand a 40-50% increase over the existing market that he's not going to get from anybody?

[Jetsfan80]

Those are just crazy made-up numbers, though. Is there an actual reason to think that he'd demand a 40-50% increase over the existing market that he's not going to get from anybody?

If he thinks he's an elite LT he probably thinks he can command that type of salary.

[SenorGato]

If he thinks he's an elite LT he probably thinks he can command that type of salary.

Once again...D'Brick is a helluvalot closer to being an elite LT than anyone seems to want to give him credit for. And lets not ignore that the only position that gets paid better than LTs are the QBs he protects....it's for a reason...they're not going to be cheap about the position.

It's possible he hits 13-14 a season, but for the most part I don't think D'Brick is that ridiculous about money.

[aec4]

Once again...D'Brick is a helluvalot closer to being an elite LT than anyone seems to want to give him credit for. And lets not ignore that the only position that gets paid better than LTs are the QBs he protects....it's for a reason...they're not going to be cheap about the position.

It's possible he hits 13-14 a season, but for the most part I don't think D'Brick is that ridiculous about money.

Using the 2010 Franchise #s, defensive end is #2

QUARTERBACK: $16.405m, $14.546m

DEFENSIVE END: $12.398m, $10.193m

OFFENSIVE LINE: $10.731m, $9.142m

LINEBACKER: $9.680m, $8.373m

CORNERBACK: $9.566 million (franchise), $8.056 million (transition)

WIDE RECEIVER: $9.521m, $8.651m

RUNNING BACK: $8.156m, $7.151m

DEFENSIVE TACKLE: $7.003m, $6.353m

SAFETY: $6.455m, $6.011m

TIGHT END: $5.908m, $5.248m

PUNTER/KICKER: $2.814m, $2.629m

I know LT, G and C are all merged together in the OL#s.

[SenorGato]

Using the 2010 Franchise #s, defensive end is #2

QUARTERBACK: $16.405m, $14.546m

DEFENSIVE END: $12.398m, $10.193m

OFFENSIVE LINE: $10.731m, $9.142m

LINEBACKER: $9.680m, $8.373m

CORNERBACK: $9.566 million (franchise), $8.056 million (transition)

WIDE RECEIVER: $9.521m, $8.651m

RUNNING BACK: $8.156m, $7.151m

DEFENSIVE TACKLE: $7.003m, $6.353m

SAFETY: $6.455m, $6.011m

TIGHT END: $5.908m, $5.248m

PUNTER/KICKER: $2.814m, $2.629m

I know LT, G and C are all merged together in the OL#s.

That's probably significant in this discussion. But yea...9-10 a year wouldn't kill us.

[Jetsfan80]

It's possible he hits 13-14 a season, but for the most part I don't think D'Brick is that ridiculous about money.

Yeah, he's smart enough to have a nice career after he's done with football, so I'm inclined to believe that he's not looking for an over-the-top salary.

[Sperm Edwards]

Those are just crazy made-up numbers, though. Is there an actual reason to think that he'd demand a 40-50% increase over the existing market that he's not going to get from anybody?

Jared Allen got $12M/season from Minnesota 2 years ago with 2 strikes against him and Julius Peppers $14M 2 months ago. Plus Ferguson may feel he got short-changed a little bit on his rookie deal (which, compared to other top 5 picks, he did). Then he can point to other left tackles who aren't necessarily better than he is and add in salary inflation since their deals were inked (Jason Peters getting $10M per, Jake Long as a rookie getting $11.5M per, Jordan Gross $10M per). The reality is those three are the only LT's in the NFL I could find whose deals crossed the $7-8M per year mark and you're ok with giving him $11M.

I just hope it isn't a choice we're faced with, as he is a damn fine left tackle and the less turnover we have from year to year the better, but it's not that crazy to imagine.

Using the 2010 Franchise #s, defensive end is #2

I know LT, G and C are all merged together in the OL#s.

Correct, but there isn't nearly the discrepancy there used to be between LT and the other 4 OL positions.

[jason423]

Im actually working on something for my site on Bricks numbers. Not sure if I will have it up anytime soon or not, but hes likely going to end up (assuming all things stay the same right now) with a salary somewhat close to what Jordan Gross ended up with. Using just some cold stats (sacks allowed, holding calls, etc...) he grades out poorer than Gross and Roos. Roos signed his deal right before the Jake Long contract made the market go nuts, but if you adjust it for that raise and then the Jason Smith raise Roos would come in around 10.3 million per year. If you adjust Gross for the Smith raise (and Im not sure if that one should be included or not) Gross would jump from 9.4 to 10. My guess is the market value for Brick is between 9 and 9.5 with a 3 year total of 30ish (which as Sperm said is unimportant since he plays every game).

If the Jets wait until the next draft (assuming a LT goes top 2) and next group of free agents hit (NcNeill is the prime guy I guess) the price could go way up or way down.

[Darth Vader]

It has been a good discussion on this board. Thanks guys and thanks sperm for paring my points down and making sense.

The point about Ducasse may be exaggerated or seem far fetched, but theres no doubt that we are talking about opportunity cost when talking about Bricks potential payday.

This isn't a question of whther he is underrated, or even good. Such an argument only plays into my larger point.

Woody's purse is just as important here. Brick's next contract is the elephant in the room of all of these other next contracts.

[Aten]

Jared Allen got $12M/season from Minnesota 2 years ago with 2 strikes against him and Julius Peppers $14M 2 months ago.

Yeah, and those deals didn't blow away the existing market the way you suggest Ferguson's might.

The reality is those three are the only LT's in the NFL I could find whose deals crossed the $7-8M per year mark and you're ok with giving him $11M.

True, but this ignores the fact that the better part of the elite tier of tackles has retired over the last year or so and that their contracts, adjusted for time, are going to play into D'Brick's deal irrespective of the fact that they're no longer in the NFL and especially given that every other comparable is playing under a rookie deal based on a slotting system that from all indications is about to get blown up.

Also, I'm more than okay with it. If 11M per for Ferguson leaves us without room to maneuver then Mangold can stick Jahri Evans money right up his ass.

[Sperm Edwards]

Yeah, and those deals didn't blow away the existing market the way you suggest Ferguson's might.

True, but this ignores the fact that the better part of the elite tier of tackles has retired over the last year or so and that their contracts, adjusted for time, are going to play into D'Brick's deal irrespective of the fact that they're no longer in the NFL and especially given that every other comparable is playing under a rookie deal based on a slotting system that from all indications is about to get blown up.

Also, I'm more than okay with it. If 11M per for Ferguson leaves us without room to maneuver then Mangold can stick Jahri Evans money right up his ass.

If Brick gets even close to $11M per year the new player I'm rooting for surprise greatness the most this year is Kyle Wilson because then Cromartie (and his likely $6-7M new contract) becomes expendable.

Hopefully they can keep him at lower per-season averages by upping the guaranteed money.

[Aten]

If Brick gets even close to $11M per year the new player I'm rooting for surprise greatness the most this year is Kyle Wilson because then Cromartie (and his likely $6-7M new contract) becomes expendable.

Hopefully they can keep him at lower per-season averages by upping the guaranteed money.

Yeah. Have to just hope for the best with Wilson and Holmes because those acquisitions basically squeezed out Cromartie and Edwards.

[bitonti]

then Cromartie (and his likely $6-7M new contract) becomes expendable.

The last time we saw Cromartie playing football he was mailing it in for his teams only playoff game. The dude might not be better than Lito... as sad as that sounds.

We are all making assumptions about the new guys that are based in imagination. Could Cromartie recapture his all-pro greatness? Yes but he could also suck hard. Could Jason taylor get 10 sacks? yes but he could also get none.

Revis, Brick and Mangold are known quantities and all should be resigned... at the cost of almost all the new additions. Even some of the more recent additions, like Braylon. The dude had 1 good catch he's not a core player.

They can tag Harris that would be fine too.

[Sperm Edwards]

The last time we saw Cromartie playing football he was mailing it in for his teams only playoff game. The dude might not be better than Lito... as sad as that sounds.

We are all making assumptions about the new guys that are based in imagination. Could Cromartie recapture his all-pro greatness? Yes but he could also suck hard. Could Jason taylor get 10 sacks? yes but he could also get none.

Revis, Brick and Mangold are known quantities and all should be resigned... at the cost of almost all the new additions. Even some of the more recent additions, like Braylon. The dude had 1 good catch he's not a core player.

They can tag Harris that would be fine too.

Well I'm with you on all of the above. I just don't think Ferguson is worth being paid as the #1-compensated left tackle in football if it comes to that. You may feel otherwise. That's fair.

Personally I think they're playing this right. Revis is the only one who is impossible to replace. Beyond that they kind of have to wait and see what the cap is going to be. Plenty of other teams are doing the exact same thing with their elite and near-elite (or at worst, highly valued + young) players.

Did some looking around to see if I was right in guessing this is how other teams were playing it also. Got all this from one website so there might be an error in here, but it appears none of these players have contracts past the 2010 season:

Peyton Manning

Tom Brady

Donovan McNabb

Steven Jackson

Randy Moss

Sidney Rice

Steve Smith (NYG)

Vernon Davis

Antonio Gates

Kellen Winslow

Justin Blalock

Matt Light

Mathias Kiwanuka

Brandon Mebane

Haloti Ngata

Chad Greenway

Paul Posluszny

Manny Lawson

LaMarr Woodley

Eric Weddle

and others a notch below them like

Tamba Hali

Kevin Boss

Zach Miller

Josh Beekman

Davin Joseph

Josh Wilson

Ahmad Bradshaw

Michael Bush

Among others that I probably missed.

So a lot of teams are playing wait & see with a lot of players.

[bitonti]

Well I'm with you on all of the above. I just don't think Ferguson is worth being paid as the #1-compensated left tackle in football if it comes to that.

I dont know he's the best but he's near the best. For what he does, protect the QB and draw the top rushers from every team, it's worth the money.

I also agree that it's tough for the Jets to operate without knowing all the rules of the situation.

If it were my operation I would start with Mangold. then Tag Harris. Then move on to the 2011 guys.

But something seems fishy down in florham. without getting into it again, my gut tells me at least 1 big deal should be done by now.

[Jetsfan80]

But something seems fishy down in florham. without getting into it again, my gut tells me at least 1 big deal should be done by now.

Nothing fishy about waiting. We don't know what the salary cap is going to be next season.

[bitonti]

Nothing fishy about waiting. We don't know what the salary cap is going to be next season.

serious question does a player like Mangold remain under contract if there's no football in 2011?

my guess is no, if there's gonna be a draft in Apr there's free agency in March... there will be waiters and gamblers.

[Sperm Edwards]

But something seems fishy down in florham. without getting into it again, my gut tells me at least 1 big deal should be done by now.

I don't think anything's fishy. Take a look at the players I listed above. Is something fishy in each one of their situations?

serious question does a player like Mangold remain under contract if there's no football in 2011?

my guess is no, if there's gonna be a draft in Apr there's free agency in March... there will be waiters and gamblers.

A player like Mangold? No, because he's not under contract. Brick would be a better question since he's under contract for 2011 but not for 2012.

Great question, though.

Fictional player A's contract:

2011: $7M roster bonus due on March 15th, $4M base salary

2012: $0 bonus money, $2M base salary

Fictional player B's contract:

2011: $1M base salary. No roster/signing bonus.

2012: $5M roster bonus and $5M base salary

Clearly these two players are not going to agree on whether they want 2011 to count or be skipped over contract-wise.

[bitonti]

so when it comes to Mangold and Harris, because their contracts will be up long before the 2011 lockout, the lockout itself is not an excuse against them being signed long term.

I agree we can say Revis and Brick are affected by the lockout. But Mangold should be shown the money, like yesterday.

the rules are unclear for what happens after 2011 but If the JEts don't sign em long term someone else will. This also goes for Harris but I think he will be a relatively cheap player to tag.

Mangold should be a Jets for life, he's been a first team all pro. There isn't even any activity on his contract, it's worrysome.

[SenorGato]

Yeah. Have to just hope for the best with Wilson and Holmes because those acquisitions basically squeezed out Cromartie and Edwards.

Wilson yeah...Cromartie will have to play his ass off, but I think Edwards vs. Holmes should be fun.

[Sperm Edwards]

so when it comes to Mangold and Harris, because their contracts will be up long before the 2011 lockout, the lockout itself is not an excuse against them being signed long term.

I agree we can say Revis and Brick are affected by the lockout. But Mangold should be shown the money, like yesterday.

the rules are unclear for what happens after 2011 but If the JEts don't sign em long term someone else will. This also goes for Harris but I think he will be a relatively cheap player to tag.

Mangold should be a Jets for life, he's been a first team all pro. There isn't even any activity on his contract, it's worrysome.

All I'd say is there isn't any announced activity on his contract, which isn't the same. But I haven't read anything about activity on contracts for Elvis Dumervil either. Nor have the Redskins even begun discussing an extension with McNabb, who they just gave up a high pick to get and whose contract is up after this season.

A lot of teams are waiting on a lot of players because they're somewhat flying blind with what to offer. I agree it's preferable that these deals are done already without any question-marks, but since almost every other team with name-players with expiring contracts is doing the same, it's not cause for panic.

Friggin' Peyton Manning and Tom Brady aren't under contract past this season either.

[Thai Jet]

Among others that I probably missed.

So a lot of teams are playing wait & see with a lot of players.

With the CBA up in the air and not knowing if there is even going to BE a 2011 season has teams hesitating. They're all waiting to see how everything shakes out.

[jason423]

so when it comes to Mangold and Harris, because their contracts will be up long before the 2011 lockout, the lockout itself is not an excuse against them being signed long term.

I agree we can say Revis and Brick are affected by the lockout. But Mangold should be shown the money, like yesterday.

the rules are unclear for what happens after 2011 but If the JEts don't sign em long term someone else will. This also goes for Harris but I think he will be a relatively cheap player to tag.

Mangold should be a Jets for life, he's been a first team all pro. There isn't even any activity on his contract, it's worrysome.

I think there have been some discussions with Mangold. He stated that he expected a new deal before camp which tells me that at least his agent had been contacted. If it wasnt the case he never would have mentioned that. I think Mangold is a bit hampered by the 30% rule. How much money do you pay up front on a 5 year contract when the 2nd year may be totally wiped out? The 30% rule means a big bonus in year 1 and 2 and there could be no football in year 2. The Jets are not going to want to pay a guy to not play.

As for Harris I think there is a good chance that 4 years will no longer be long enough to be considered unrestricted. Free agency status is determined by being active so a lockout would not change the Jets ability to hold onto his rights in 2012 if there was no football in 2011. Someone told me that there is going to be very little activity on the 4 year guys until a new CBA is hammered out.