FO QB rankings: Sanchez moves up to 13th

[JetsFanInDenver]

I mean to say the QB has the freedom to call audibles. It has nothing to do with holmes comments.

We cannot really say he has the freedom to call audibles or what latitude he has in doing so? We cannot know for sure ? But one thing we do know is that the playcalling is handled by the OC.

[RutgersJetFan]

Potentially.

They're OK, the 11.6% puts the DYAR into perspective, but all of this doesn't factor in any sort of regression whatsoever. Standard error on FO numbers through 3 weeks is astronomical.

[Larz]

these kinds of things seem to be more accurate after about 8 weeks, when you get a feel for which defense is legit, etc

[Vicious89x]

They're OK, the 11.6% puts the DYAR into perspective, but all of this doesn't factor in any sort of regression whatsoever. Standard error on FO numbers through 3 weeks is astronomical.

You missed it like Santonio Holmes on an out route.

[RutgersJetFan]

You missed it like Santonio Holmes on an out route.

[Vicious89x]

I feel a mixture of LOLZ and rage with this picture.

[JiFtheOracle]

I honestly think the problem is that Burress is a Trojan horse that isn't actually fooling anybody. The book is out on Sanchez. Everybody knows perfectly well that if his primary receiver is covered he's either going to check it down or double-clutch and chuck the ball right into traffic, so if we're ever going to get Holmes the ball we need a credible threat opposite him and it's pretty clear nobody is taking Burress all that seriously as such. Nobody is going to give Holmes a chance to kill them, so he's just gonna have to do like the rest of us and hope Keller can get it done.

Hmmm, Rex said that the Jags were rolling a safety Plax's way the whole game which is why he didnt catch a pass.

[Jetsfan80]

They're OK, the 11.6% puts the DYAR into perspective, but all of this doesn't factor in any sort of regression whatsoever. Standard error on FO numbers through 3 weeks is astronomical.

Wouldn't every QB be subjected to regression? I mean, there's just no way Tom Brady keeps up a 625 DYAR and 57.4 % DVOA, right?

[SenorGato]

Hmmm, Rex said that the Jags were rolling a safety Plax's way the whole game which is why he didnt catch a pass.

Well consider that those are the Jags, who are lacking in secondary talent as it is.

Overall I agree with Aten on that point. Plaxico is not scaring anyone, and teams know who this team's best WR is (by faaaaaaaaaaaar at this point in everyone's career).

[RutgersJetFan]

Wouldn't every QB be subjected to regression? I mean, there's just no way Tom Brady keeps up a 625 DYAR and 57.4 % DVOA, right?

Yes and no. Brady is a bad example because he's been ungodly in both categories for the past several years. Particularly in the latter category where he's blown the rest of the league away by such a large margin. I think he was at 55% the year they went undefeated or something around there.

DYAR is a cumulative stat, but there's no way he doesn't level off unless he has undoubtedly the greatest season a QB has ever had, which still probably wouldn't hold up at this rate. Even the year he went undefeated with 50 TD's he didn't sniff what that's projecting to.

Regression isn't so much the issue at this point as standard error is. The sample size is so small that if you even bothered to take the time to construct a confidence interval, (a measurement of how accurately the sample will represent the population, which would be pointless because it's that obvious), it would be fairly low. Ranking these at this point in the season and publishing as FO does really misconstrues them to the naked eye. At this point these numbers are just measurements of how each QB has performed for 3 games, and that's really only about as far as they go. They can't display improvement or atavism for any player yet, and they serve little as to any sort of comparative analysis. Maybe through 8 games, but even at that point there's so many variables still in play that you're better off just waiting until the season is over if you want to interpret these statistics in that regard.

[jason423]

Well consider that those are the Jags, who are lacking in secondary talent as it is.

Overall I agree with Aten on that point. Plaxico is not scaring anyone, and teams know who this team's best WR is (by faaaaaaaaaaaar at this point in everyone's career).

Burress isnt signed to scare other teams. Holmes is signed to scare teams. Burress is signed to as someone who makes a team pay by paying too much attention to Holmes. He was signed for two reasons over Edwards. One was that the Jets didnt want to tie up a bunch of money in a WR2 spot, especially if they are not sold on the QB. Secondly, though, they needed a guy with good hands that actually plays big to haul in some of the less accurate passes from Sanchez. Holmes is supposed to open things up for the other two and once Sanchez starts throwing to them it should open things up for Santonio. The trick to getting it to work is for Sanchez to actually spread the targets around during the course of the game and right now he hasnt done that. He basically goes Holmes, Holmes, Holmes, Keller, Keller, Keller, Mason, Mason, Keller, Keller, Burress, Burress, Burress, Holmes, Holmes, etc...with some checks to LT thrown in. Right now he just locks in on the flavor of the moment and I think the Jets need to drill it into his head that spreading the ball around within a drive is going to make things much easier as the game goes on. He makes it harder on himself with his decision making

[Sperm Edwards]

Of course you can't BUT he has been better in every statistical category this year than last except INTs and QBR. His completion % is better, his yards per attempt better, and his total yards. He's the same in TDs.

So he's better in (1) comp%, (2) YPA, (3) YDs

Same in (1) TDs

Worse in (1) QBR, and (2) INTs.

So he's better in more categories than he's worse. See how it's easy to claim you're cherry picking and focusing solely on the negative?

So because 2 of his dumpoffs to LT went for 106 yards, drastically skewing his hundred pass attempts, that makes Sanchez a better QB now? Tell you what: by the end of the season, after having played at least 1 team that can stop an aerial attack, if 2% of all passes he attempts still average out to 50-yard plays to a RB, then I'll attribute that to better QB'ing.

Until then you're basing this increase in competence, skill, and accomplishment by averaging in a couple of rare, long pass plays into a decidedly-small sample size. But if you'd looked a similar window last year through the first 3-4 games, you'd think we were looking at one of the NFL's 5 best QB's just from a statistical standpoint alone. Now we all know that isn't the case but this is the argument that is being made now in swearing by some great awakening in his play over a whopping 3 football games in 2011 when he was playing better just last year at this point. (I certainly don't credit him for playing well vs Baltimore last year but it's a bit tough anyway when the OC effectively decrees, "Thou shalt not attempt a pass that travels more than 3-7 yards from the line of scrimmage.")

Or is it your position that LT - now at age 32 - has finally reached the prime of his career due to Sanchez, and that is why he's averaging over 16 yards per reception?

I've never even hinted that Sanchez is some bust of a QB who we'd be better off without (though I did think there were a couple of games he should have been pulled from). What I'm saying is I don't see this supposedly-obvious improvement. I see an increase in a couple of stats over a very small window of time, but I'm sure we all know that a healthy amount of plays that boosted those stats came either on freak plays that had little to do with Sanchez (like 32-yard and 74-yard dumpoffs to LT) or from playing catch-up against already-soft secondaries playing prevent defense.

I see the same types of boneheaded plays as last year that are symptoms of the same causes, which is staring down his primary target. He misses coverage help when it slides over and misses other open receivers as a result of this tunnel-vision. And while I've also repeatedly said growing out of this frequently comes with time for many and comes with experience, it is no less infuriating to watch in real-time during the game. And this gets me a labeled by you, and others, as hating Sanchez. Lovely.

[Sperm Edwards]

Ahhh, got it.

QBR & INTs are more important than completion %, YPA, and total yds. Got it. I'm going to hold you to that.

Actually that is not my point, hence the "duh" sarcasm. The point is that you cannot point to statistics over a 3-game span and extrapolate from any of these numbers that someone has now improved as a football player.

[SMC]

So because 2 of his dumpoffs to LT went for 106 yards, drastically skewing his hundred pass attempts, that makes Sanchez a better QB now? Tell you what: by the end of the season, after having played at least 1 team that can stop an aerial attack, if 2% of all passes he attempts still average out to 50-yard plays to a RB, then I'll attribute that to better QB'ing.

Until then you're basing this increase in competence, skill, and accomplishment by averaging in a couple of rare, long pass plays into a decidedly-small sample size. But if you'd looked a similar window last year through the first 3-4 games, you'd think we were looking at one of the NFL's 5 best QB's just from a statistical standpoint alone. Now we all know that isn't the case but this is the argument that is being made now in swearing by some great awakening in his play over a whopping 3 football games in 2011 when he was playing better just last year at this point. (I certainly don't credit him for playing well vs Baltimore last year but it's a bit tough anyway when the OC effectively decrees, "Thou shalt not attempt a pass that travels more than 3-7 yards from the line of scrimmage.")

Or is it your position that LT - now at age 32 - has finally reached the prime of his career due to Sanchez, and that is why he's averaging over 16 yards per reception?

I've never even hinted that Sanchez is some bust of a QB who we'd be better off without (though I did think there were a couple of games he should have been pulled from). What I'm saying is I don't see this supposedly-obvious improvement. I see an increase in a couple of stats over a very small window of time, but I'm sure we all know that a healthy amount of plays that boosted those stats came either on freak plays that had little to do with Sanchez (like 32-yard and 74-yard dumpoffs to LT) or from playing catch-up against already-soft secondaries playing prevent defense.

I see the same types of boneheaded plays as last year that are symptoms of the same causes, which is staring down his primary target. He misses coverage help when it slides over and misses other open receivers as a result of this tunnel-vision. And while I've also repeatedly said growing out of this frequently comes with time for many and comes with experience, it is no less infuriating to watch in real-time during the game. And this gets me a labeled by you, and others, as hating Sanchez. Lovely.

This is why it can be seen as hating. You're criticizing or discounting "dumpoffs" to LT when Brees & Rivers did the same thing because that's LT's game.

You had also made the claim that Sanchez was better last year in the first 3 games, which I disagree and supported that. Sample size doesn't matter because its the same sample size for each.

In any event, I'll wait for the end of the season because when he has better production across the board the "he hasn't improved" argument will look silly.

[Matt39]

This is why it can be seen as hating. You're criticizing or discounting "dumpoffs" to LT when Brees & Rivers did the same thing because that's LT's game.

You had also made the claim that Sanchez was better last year in the first 3 games, which I disagree and supported that. Sample size doesn't matter because its the same sample size for each.

In any event, I'll wait for the end of the season because when he has better production across the board the "he hasn't improved" argument will look silly.

Watch the Chargers...that's all Rivers does is dump offs.

[Sperm Edwards]

This is why it can be seen as hating. You're criticizing or discounting "dumpoffs" to LT when Brees & Rivers did the same thing because that's LT's game.

You had also made the claim that Sanchez was better last year in the first 3 games, which I disagree and supported that. Sample size doesn't matter because its the same sample size for each.

In any event, I'll wait for the end of the season because when he has better production across the board the "he hasn't improved" argument will look silly.

Oh please. LT didn't average 16-17 yards per reception with San Diego and by year's end he won't here either.

You're taking a small, inflated average and extrapolating it over 16 games, and taking the results of that extrapolation and attributing it to Sanchez as proof of something more.

[JiFtheOracle]

Watch the Chargers...that's all Rivers does is dump offs.

The 21 receptions and 170 yards that Brees has to Sproles dont count either.

[Matt39]

The 21 receptions and 170 yards that Brees has to Sproles dont count either.

And Bush the years prior. Brees is awesome though, but then again so is Payton.. and that offense is fun and innovative. And in a dome.

When we play the "these yards dont count" game then we have to look at everyone. Hell Brady this year(who's getting blown by everyone) has thrown the least amount of passes over 20 yards.

[THE ILK]

So 13th is good?

No, it's GREAT!

[Sperm Edwards]

But against the Ravens last year, he only put up a QB rating of 56.4 going 10/21, 74 yards, completion % of 47.6% and 0 TD's/0 INT's. We lost that game because of Sanchez. We may have been 2-1 after 3 games last year, as we are after 3 games this year... But Sanchez has yet to "lose" us a game this season. He blew that game against the Ravens last year, but I'm willing to bet that he has a MUCH better performance this Sunday against that Ravens defense when compared to last year. Just more signs of Sanchez improving.

After 3 games last year: 46/79, 550 yards, completion % of 57.0, 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 6 TD's/0 INT's.

Keep in mind... Our offensive line and rushing attack were much better after 3 games last season when compared to this year thus far. It's actually been horrible this year, which makes the overall stats of Sanchez "that much more impressive".

After 3 games this year: 70/111, 886 yards, completion % of 63.1, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 6 TD's/4 INT's.

It's obvious that Sanchez is a much better QB as of right now, when compared to last year.

You can look at his 4 INT's and QB rating as a way to harp all over Sanchez all you like, but anyone who knows anything about Jets football will look at the facts that Sanchez has played behind an AWFUL offensive line this year, has had no rushing attack what so ever, three new WR's in Plaxico, Mason and Kerley and once again... An awful offensive line.

Sanchez has improved. The offensive line hasn't. It's as simple as that.

I don't agree with a single opinion you've written here. Nothing is "obvious" except to those who want to state it as such.

What is obvious is that some of the numbers he's enjoying is due to 2 dumpoff passes accounting for over 10% of his cumulative yardage numbers.

I could point to equivalent 3-game stretches by other young QBs who were far worse than Sanchez. It would just be a 3-game snapshot, but if I could go back in time bet I could find a point where I'd have been able to rationalize Joey Harrington had turned the corner and improved greatly. Just like I started to think last season through September. Then for the remainder of the regular season his numbers were eerily similar to when he was as a rookie (9 TD's, 13 picks).

That doesn't mean he isn't or won't be better this year. All it means is I haven't seen some fantastic growth watching him, and using stats to rationalize any improvement (or regression) after 3 games is beyond silly given the amount that 2-3 plays can skew someone's cumulative season stats.

[SMC]

Oh please. LT didn't average 16-17 yards per reception with San Diego and by year's end he won't here either.

You're taking a small, inflated average and extrapolating it over 16 games, and taking the results of that extrapolation and attributing it to Sanchez as proof of something more.

No sweat, Sperm. I don't like projection and extrapolation either. I just used it because an earlier "hater" talking point was Sanchez' number of INTs and what he is projected to have. If we extrapolate INTs then we have to extrapolate other numbers.

Regardless, there will be a reckoning at the end of the season for both sides of the debate. I prefer to wait to then because a season-long debate based on cumulated stats and projection gets tiring.

[Sperm Edwards]

No sweat, Sperm. I don't like projection and extrapolation either. I just used it because an earlier "hater" talking point was Sanchez' number of INTs and what he is projected to have. If we extrapolate INTs then we have to extrapolate other numbers.

Regardless, there will be a reckoning at the end of the season for both sides of the debate. I prefer to wait to then because a season-long debate based on cumulated stats and projection gets tiring.

No fooling.

But it isn't just tiring. It is a total waste of time. You cannot look at the first 2 or 3 or 4 games and make an assumption that the remaining 12-14 games are going to mirror those. I mean you can, but it doesn't hold any water.

[SMC]

No fooling.

But it isn't just tiring. It is a total waste of time. You cannot look at the first 2 or 3 or 4 games and make an assumption that the remaining 12-14 games are going to mirror those. I mean you can, but it doesn't hold any water.

I COMPLETELY agree with you. Again, I only projected because early on in the argument only the negative was projected. I say don't extrapolate anything. But if we do, we have to extrapolate EVERYTHING.

[RutgersJetFan]

No fooling.

But it isn't just tiring. It is a total waste of time. You cannot look at the first 2 or 3 or 4 games and make an assumption that the remaining 12-14 games are going to mirror those. I mean you can, but it doesn't hold any water.

It holds way more water if you're projecting conventional stuff. TD/INT ratios, total yardage...etc. Even though that's a stretch it's still a logical extrapolation. Whatever times whatever. Projecting multivariate numbers with a sample of this size by the same method is beyond useless.

[Obrien2Toon]

Doesn't hurt to have Megatron to throw to, either.

off topic, but megatron has to be the worst nickname in all of sports.

I refuse to call him that. Who came up with that? Some sci fi geek.

As far as Sanchez goes, I'm far from a big backer of the guy. But I think he looks much better this year, but it's really hard to judge him on these first couple of games. The Oline has been brutal. But I stick with my original opinion is that he will top out at a top 10-15 qb. Some years he will have very good seasons and be a top qb. But he'll never be a perennial top QB. He just doesn't have the talent to do it.

[JetsFanFromQueens]

What is obvious is that some of the numbers he's enjoying is due to 2 dumpoff passes accounting for over 10% of his cumulative yardage numbers.

UGH!

Keller, Holmes, Burress, Mason, Cumberland and Mulligan have combined for 48 receptions, 630 yards and 5 TD's after only 3 weeks. What "dumpoffs" are you talking about? You mean, the plays where Sanchez has read the defense, seen nothing was open, and hit LT for plays that have turned into success? Stop acting as if Sanchez is some type of "dumpoff passer", all because he's made the right read in situations where LT has been open coming out of the backfield. That's what great quarterbacks do... They find the open man. Without Sanchez making the right read, LT wouldn't have 12 receptions for 196 yards as of right now.

And what's obvious, is that you'd become the first person to BASH Sanchez left and right if he would have thrown INT's, instead of making the RIGHT read with a "dumpoff". But yet, now you're trying to label Sanchez as some type of "dumpoff" passer. 48 completions, 630 yards and 5 TD' say otherwise. And not all of LT's catches have been "dumpoffs" either.

On a side note, in case you've forgot to mention (or just refuse to), but Sanchez has a QB rating of 90+... With an offensive line that's played AWFUL thus far. Which makes the production of Sanchez 'that much more' impressive.

[SMC]

It holds way more water if you're projecting conventional stuff. TD/INT ratios, total yardage...etc. Even though that's a stretch it's still a logical extrapolation. Whatever times whatever. Projecting multivariate numbers with a sample of this size by the same method is beyond useless.

I completely agree.

[Vicious89x]

off topic, but megatron has to be the worst nickname in all of sports.

I refuse to call him that. Who came up with that? Some sci fi geek.

As far as Sanchez goes, I'm far from a big backer of the guy. But I think he looks much better this year, but it's really hard to judge him on these first couple of games. The Oline has been brutal. But I stick with my original opinion is that he will top out at a top 10-15 qb. Some years he will have very good seasons and be a top qb. But he'll never be a perennial top QB. He just doesn't have the talent to do it.

Incorrect.

[Jetsfan80]

I refuse to call him that. Who came up with that? Some sci fi geek.

Transformers are awesome. And I'm not talking about the Michael Bay-Shia Lebouf abomination.

[Obrien2Toon]

Transformers are awesome. And I'm not talking about the Michael Bay-Shia Lebouf abomination.

yeah, my 4 year old loves them.

[Sperm Edwards]

It holds way more water if you're projecting conventional stuff. TD/INT ratios, total yardage...etc. Even though that's a stretch it's still a logical extrapolation. Whatever times whatever. Projecting multivariate numbers with a sample of this size by the same method is beyond useless.

Projecting any of it is useless. Any one game that is an anomaly, whether it's a good game or a bad one, has undue influence on the extrapolated numbers.

All you can say about the first 3 games is how he did in each game. It cannot be extrapolated beyond the 3 game sample.

[CTM]

Projecting any of it is useless. Any one game that is an anomaly, whether it's a good game or a bad one, has undue influence on the extrapolated numbers.

All you can say about the first 3 games is how he did in each game. It cannot be extrapolated beyond the 3 game sample.

sure it can... if the data is good, the pollyanna's do the extrapolation and then debbie downers point out why it's flawed.. If the numbers were bad, it'd be reversed.

[Sperm Edwards]

UGH!

Keller, Holmes, Burress, Mason, Cumberland and Mulligan have combined for 48 receptions, 630 yards and 5 TD's after only 3 weeks. What "dumpoffs" are you talking about? You mean, the plays where Sanchez has read the defense, seen nothing was open, and hit LT for plays that have turned into success? Stop acting as if Sanchez is some type of "dumpoff passer", all because he's made the right read in situations where LT has been open coming out of the backfield. That's what great quarterbacks do... They find the open man. Without Sanchez making the right read, LT wouldn't have 12 receptions for 196 yards as of right now.

And what's obvious, is that you'd become the first person to BASH Sanchez left and right if he would have thrown INT's, instead of making the RIGHT read with a "dumpoff". But yet, now you're trying to label Sanchez as some type of "dumpoff" passer. 48 completions, 630 yards and 5 TD' say otherwise. And not all of LT's catches have been "dumpoffs" either.

On a side note, in case you've forgot to mention (or just refuse to), but Sanchez has a QB rating of 90+... With an offensive line that's played AWFUL thus far. Which makes the production of Sanchez 'that much more' impressive.

So you believe that Sanchez is likely to amass 500-600 yards on 10 dumpoff passes over the course of 16 games?

You're making it out as though Sanchez saw that there was a way for LT to run 30+ and then 70+ yards with his pass, and based on that split-second assessment, he threw that pass. Is that what you believe? I wouldn't credit any QB in history with what you're attributing to him. He dumped it off and LT made guys miss and ran a long way. How that is a reflection on Sanchez's accomplishment (and therefore, suggest extrapolating those plays as being sensible), where if LT got tripped up it would make Sanchez less of a passer?

You cannot suggest a 3-game performance is indicative of anything other than how he did in those 3 games. Particularly if you're using this puny sample to try to prove how much better he is than his prior 35+ games.

[Sperm Edwards]

sure it can... if the data is good, the pollyanna's do the extrapolation and then debbie downers point out why it's flawed.. If the numbers were bad, it'd be reversed.

Well I'm being looked upon as one of the latter and I certainly don't go around babbling about how I seriously believe Sanchez is likely to finish the season with about 30 interceptions+fumbles, and furthermore that is an indication he's worse than he's ever been at protecting the football.

Is Cam Newton going to pass for 5400 yards this year? Hey, he's on pace to do just that.

It's absurd from either angle.

[RutgersJetFan]

Projecting any of it is useless. Any one game that is an anomaly, whether it's a good game or a bad one, has undue influence on the extrapolated numbers.

All you can say about the first 3 games is how he did in each game. It cannot be extrapolated beyond the 3 game sample.

I feel like you've been trying to disagree with me a lot lately, yet we're practically saying the same thing.