It's not like the Revis deal is deceased

[slats]

Revis deal could go down when Bucs are on the clock

Posted by Mike Florio on March 31, 2013, 6:38 PM EDT

It has been several weeks since it became clear that the most serious (and possibly only) suitor for Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who apparently remain willing to pay Revis what he wants on a long-term deal even as the cornerback market has disintegrated.

But a trade bogged down with the Jets wanting a package headlined by the 13th overall pick in the 2013 draft and the Bucs hoping instead to send a 2014 first-rounder that, if the team from Tampa has its way, will be much lower than No. 13.

Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune believes that, as the draft approaches, talk of the trade going down “will heat up again.” Cummings writes that the Bucs continue to refuse to part ways with their 2013 first-round pick “in part because it’s too soon to know how this year’s draft will play out.”

That’s a great point. A player the Bucs would have drafted with a much higher pick could squirt through the first 12 selections, making them more inclined to use it. Conversely, there may be no one Tampa really wants at No. 13, making a trade to the Jets more likely.

That would actually help the Jets, since getting the 13th pick after 12 have been made would ensure that no one would try to leap past New York and take the player the Jets would possibly be targeting at No. 13.

There’s a third path that could get the deal done, giving the Jets the 2013 first-round pick G.M. John Idzik feels compelled to obtain. The Bucs could slide back from No. 13 if they aren’t thrilled with any of the players available at that point, and then offer the lower pick to the Jets.

The fact that the Bucs have yet to sign another cornerback, coupled with the belief in league circles that ownership in Tampa wants Revis, means that this deal isn’t dead, yet. In the end, it could make for some unexpected twists on the night of Thursday, April 25.

[Larz]

so the leaks didn't pan out eh boys ?  who declared him a 9er weeks ago, cimini ?

 

yeah, i read the mayans were REALLY talking about the spring solstice of '13

 

aint holding my breath

[T0mShane]

Could be the right path for Idzik. As the draft gets closer, and teams start falling out of love with this year's crop, other GMs might just say "screw it" and decide that picking up Revis is a better option than gambling on a few draft picks. The fear, of course, is that Tampa falls in love with one of the corners coming out and decides that Revis isn't worth the headache.

[Jolot]

I still don't understand why all the " experts " think the bucs 2014 pick will be lower than 13.. Yes revis would help but I have zero confidence in they're whole program starting with the head coach...I say take next years 1

[bitonti]

I still don't understand why all the " experts " think the bucs 2014 pick will be lower than 13.. Yes revis would help but I have zero confidence in they're whole program starting with the head coach...I say take next years 1

 

 

Revis is worth 2 wins by himself.

[slats]

I still don't understand why all the " experts " think the bucs 2014 pick will be lower than 13.. Yes revis would help but I have zero confidence in they're whole program starting with the head coach...I say take next years 1

The compromise between the deals speculated in the media would be the Bucs' #2 this year, and their #1 next year. I think that would be a pretty fair swap.

I appreciate Idzik trying to get all he possibly can, but he needs to move Revis. The Jets can't be in a position where they need to either pay Revis as a free agent (where his price will go up significantly when teams don't have to forfeit picks before paying him), or lose him for the potential 100th-ish pick in the 2015 draft.

[Jolot]

The compromise between the deals speculated in the media would be the Bucs' #2 this year, and their #1 next year. I think that would be a pretty fair swap.

I appreciate Idzik trying to get all he possibly can, but he needs to move Revis. The Jets can't be in a position where they need to either pay Revis as a free agent (where his price will go up significantly when teams don't have to forfeit picks before paying him), or lose him for the potential 100th-ish pick in the 2015 draft.

Slats I agree,..I know the bucs have some talent on offense and adding revis will obviously help but we're talking the bucs here, with a college coach,..maybe they go 4 and 12 while not likely it isn't totally out of the equation either.

[bitonti]

also Keep in mind the Bucs high priced OL was decimated this year, they lost both Nicks and Joseph, two all-pros. Just getting those guys back is worth a couple wins.  that team could easily go 10-6 with a healthy Revis. 

[jetsjetsjetss]

also Keep in mind the Bucs high priced OL was decimated this year, they lost both Nicks and Joseph, two all-pros. Just getting those guys back is worth a couple wins.  that team could easily go 10-6 with a healthy Revis. 

 

yea i think so too. They are spending and looking to make the next step. they could potentially make the playoffs (ive seen crazier stuff happen just last year)

[BroadwayJoe12]

What i've learned from this thread: Revis is worth two wins by himself and two all-pro OGs are worth two wins just by themselves.  So by acquiring Revis and keeping Nicks and Joseph healthy, the bucs just got four wins better.  Never knew it was so simplistic. Not sure why other teams aren't in the market for just buying wins.

[stoicsentry]

Remember when the media was telling us that a deal was "imminent" and they "couldn't wait" to get rid of Revis?

 

Look, these guys were saying that idzik wanted Revis gone before he even found his office in Florham Park. I don't buy it, it's not a given.

[Scott Dierking]

Revis is worth 2 wins by himself.

There is not any way anyone could quantify that. 

[kelticwizard]

Obviously the two wins are not automatic.  What they are saying is that if everyone else on the team performs at approximately the same level they did last year, the addition of Revis playing like he normally does will significantly improve the defense, and the return of two solid lineman instead of the substitutes they had to go to last year will significantly increase the things they can accomplish on offense.

 

Putting it in terms of wins is kind of crude, but there might not be a better way to state it.  Of course, you can add Revis and improve the defense, and the linemen and improve the offense, and have everyone else on the team play at the same level next year as they did this past year, and still end up with the same record as last year because in several games the ball just didn't bounce your way in numerous crucial situations.  Every team has entire years like that sometimes.

[Scott Dierking]

Obviously the two wins are not automatic.  What they are saying is that if everyone else on the team performs at approximately the same level they did last year, the addition of Revis playing like he normally does will significantly improve the defense, and the return of two solid lineman instead of the substitutes they had to go to last year will significantly increase the things they can accomplish on offense.

 

Putting it in terms of wins is kind of crude, but there might not be a better way to state it.  Of course, you can add Revis and improve the defense, and the linemen and improve the offense, and have everyone else on the team play at the same level next year as they did this past year, and still end up with the same record as last year because in several games the ball just didn't bounce your way in numerous crucial situations.  Every team has entire years like that sometimes.

Problem with this is-Most people are not returning to this team. They are starting over. 

 

The true question becomes, what does Revis add to a team that is in the midst of a "re-build"? That is the true dilemma the Jets are facing because it is the realistic one.

 

It is a hard pressed statement to make that the best CB in the game gives you 2 wins automatically.

[Bleedin Green]

Problem with this is-Most people are not returning to this team. They are starting over. 

 

The true question becomes, what does Revis add to a team that is in the midst of a "re-build"? That is the true dilemma the Jets are facing because it is the realistic one.

 

It is a hard pressed statement to make that the best CB in the game gives you 2 wins automatically.

 

Especially when you consider that the difference between the 2011 and 2012 Jets was only 2 wins.  You would be hard pressed to find a single person, outside of perhaps bitonti, who would cite the loss of Revis as the sole reason for the difference in the records of those 2 seasons.  Simply consider that the biggest problem was the Jets' offense, which saw the loss of their #1 WR and #1 TE while their QB produced 19 less TDs but still had 26 turnovers.  Someone would have to argue that none of those things had any impact on the Jets' performance in order to give sole credit to Revis' for 2 wins.

[Sperm Edwards]

Problem with this is-Most people are not returning to this team. They are starting over. 

 

The true question becomes, what does Revis add to a team that is in the midst of a "re-build"? That is the true dilemma the Jets are facing because it is the realistic one.

 

It is a hard pressed statement to make that the best CB in the game gives you 2 wins automatically.

 

Change that to the beginning of a rebuild.  I'll call it the midst of a rebuild when more empty cap space and ridiculous contracts are off the books (Sanchez, Holmes, Harris, Revis if he's dealt, etc.).

 

Entering the draft, we have hold-the-fort or at least semi-unknown 16-game starters at QB, RB, FB, TE, WR1, maybe WR2, LG, RG, RT, NT, ROLB, LOLB, ILB(Davis), CB2?(Wilson), FS, SS.  Did I miss anything?

 

Next year we will be faced with the possibility of losing Cromartie if he doesn't agree to a pay cut, Holmes if he doesn't play like even 80% of the player we paid for, maybe Harris if he continues to decline, as well as a bunch of the stopgap players we've penciled in for 2013 (contracts expiring after 2013 for Garrard, Ducasse, Colon, Howard, Cumberland, McKnight, and I forget who else).

 

Doesn't seem like paying QB money to a CB - even the best CB - should be the team's #1 interest.

[bitonti]

There is not any way anyone could quantify that. 

 

how about the 2 wins they lost when he went down? 8-8 vs 6-10? how about the fact that the jets were 2-1 when he was injured? 

[Bleedin Green]

how about the 2 wins they lost when he went down? 8-8 vs 6-10? how about the fact that the jets were 2-1 when he was injured? 

 

 

Especially when you consider that the difference between the 2011 and 2012 Jets was only 2 wins.  You would be hard pressed to find a single person, outside of perhaps bitonti, who would cite the loss of Revis as the sole reason for the difference in the records of those 2 seasons.  Simply consider that the biggest problem was the Jets' offense, which saw the loss of their #1 WR and #1 TE while their QB produced 19 less TDs but still had 26 turnovers.  Someone would have to argue that none of those things had any impact on the Jets' performance in order to give sole credit to Revis' for 2 wins.

 

Yay!  What do I win?

[Sperm Edwards]

how about the 2 wins they lost when he went down? 8-8 vs 6-10? how about the fact that the jets were 2-1 when he was injured? 

 

That is just silly.  Correlation is not causation.

 

Teams don't generally carry a 3rd starting CB just in case Revis goes down with an ACL injury.  If Revis was no longer here, the Jets would find two other starting corners instead of promoting the next-best guy who isn't hurt.

 

So even though you can't isolate Revis as the reason for win total changes, whatever change there would theoretically be would be lessened by planning for a season without him during the offseason, as opposed to dealing with not having him unexpectedly after the season has started.

[Bleedin Green]

That is just silly.  Correlation is not causation.

 

Teams don't generally carry a 3rd starting CB just in case Revis goes down with an ACL injury.  If Revis was no longer here, the Jets would find two other starting corners instead of promoting the next-best guy who isn't hurt.

 

So even though you can't isolate Revis as the reason for win total changes, whatever change there would theoretically be would be lessened by planning for a season without him during the offseason, as opposed to dealing with not having him unexpectedly after the season has started.

 

Are you sure about that?  Because I was just about to start a thread about the vast impact on a team's record the presence of Wayne Hunter has.  After all, the Jets trade him away and their record drops by 2 wins.  Meanwhile, the Rams trade for him and their record improves by 5.5 wins.  BOOM! SCIENCE!

[Larz]

have the jets let revis talk to anyone about an extension ?  I wonder if that is idziks plan.  let someone else tell him he isn't worth 16 mill

 

yes, I read the rumors about tampa meeting his price, but does anyone have good source that tampa actually spoke to uncle sean ?

[Sperm Edwards]

Are you sure about that?  Because I was just about to start a thread about the vast impact on a team's record the presence of Wayne Hunter has.  After all, the Jets trade him away and their record drops by 2 wins.  Meanwhile, the Rams trade for him and their record improves by 5.5 wins.  BOOM! SCIENCE!

 

Wayne Hunter is therefore more valuable than Revis.

 

Also it means Slauson was better in his first year starting than Faneca was the year prior.  Faneca = 9 wins; Slauson = 11 wins.  Therefore Slauson is good for 2 wins per year.

[JetNation]

With all the media attention given towards a potential trade involving Darrelle Revis and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, nationally and within New York, it is surprising that little if any information has been reported by the Tampa Bay media.

Had an opportunity to interview Tampa Tribune Buccaneers beat reporter Roy Cummings to get his view on what is going on with the Darrelle Revis trade situation from a Buccaneers insider’s perspective and go over his recent article titled: “Bucs-Revis talks to heat up again soon.”

The entire interview will be played live Tuesday April 2^nd at 8pm on JetNation Radio and can be heard later on-demand or at Jetnation.com soon after the show airs.

Cummings expressed the dire situation Tampa’s in at the cornerback position saying, “The Buccaneers have a massive need at cornerback.  Coach Greg Schiano said at the owners meetings this year … we don’t have enough corners right now to go practice so obviously it’s a need.”

When asked about whether or not Revis could be a good fit with the organization Cummings said, “Does he fit as a Buccaneer-Man, which is one thing Greg Schiano is big on, does he go through the character filter.  That’s a question I’m not so sure about, I don’t know Darrelle Revis that well I know he’s had some holdout issues, the Bucs are not big fans of that.”

Revis will be looking for a significant amount of guaranteed money in any new contract and is known to holdout or threaten to holdout when his guaranteed money dwindles.  “Darrelle Revis is going to have to realize coming off a knee injury his value isn’t what it was two years ago, he’s going to have to prove himself and that is why it is going to be hard to do a deal for him,” Cummings said.

“Since Mark Dominik took over as the Bucs GM (general manager) in 2009 he’s been very consistent with the way he’s handed out guaranteed money, I won’t say signing bonus, because they don’t give very many of those in their deals.  Guaranteed money is usually paid out within the first two years of any contract no matter the length,” Cummings explained.  When asked about reported contract figures being offered by the Buccaneers he replied, “Some of the numbers we’re hearing are just not factual they don’t make sense for the way Mark Dominik does contracts.”

What are the chances a trade between the Jets and Buccaneers for Revis occurs before/during the 2013 draft?  “Today … the chances of a Revis deal getting done with the Buccaneers are no better than 50/50 at best they are 50/50,” Cummings said, but did go on to point out that things could change as the draft approaches.  The Buccaneers will be getting a clearer picture of who’ll be available at the #13 overall pick and if they would part with it in order to obtain Revis.

 

 

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[Scott Dierking]

how about the 2 wins they lost when he went down? 8-8 vs 6-10? how about the fact that the jets were 2-1 when he was injured? 

Your credibility takes a massive hit with statements like this. I hope you are just kidding.

[Il Mostro]

Wayne Hunter is therefore more valuable than Revis.

 

Also it means Slauson was better in his first year starting than Faneca was the year prior.  Faneca = 9 wins; Slauson = 11 wins.  Therefore Slauson is good for 2 wins per year.

 

 

This is empirical proof that logic never works.

[kelticwizard]

Hunter and Slauson don't change the whole scheme of the defense the way that Revis, (especially in combo with Cro), does. 

 

The usual NFL defense is zone most of the time, and zone takes more players than man-to-man.  With Revis taking the best WR alone and usually shutting him down, and with Cro taking the #2 receiver alone and usually shutting him down as well, that frees up an extra player for extra duty who would normally be playing the zone.  That is a huge difference, and while assigning number of wins is imperfect, the effectiveness of the defense goes up a couple of notches with the Revis/Cro combo.

[T0mShane]

With all the media attention given towards a potential trade involving Darrelle Revis and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, nationally and within New York, it is surprising that little if any information has been reported by the Tampa Bay media.

Had an opportunity to interview Tampa Tribune Buccaneers beat reporter Roy Cummings to get his view on what is going on with the Darrelle Revis trade situation from a Buccaneers insider’s perspective and go over his recent article titled: “Bucs-Revis talks to heat up again soon.”

The entire interview will be played live Tuesday April 2^nd at 8pm on JetNation Radio and can be heard later on-demand or at Jetnation.com soon after the show airs.

Cummings expressed the dire situation Tampa’s in at the cornerback position saying, “The Buccaneers have a massive need at cornerback.  Coach Greg Schiano said at the owners meetings this year … we don’t have enough corners right now to go practice so obviously it’s a need.”

When asked about whether or not Revis could be a good fit with the organization Cummings said, “Does he fit as a Buccaneer-Man, which is one thing Greg Schiano is big on, does he go through the character filter.  That’s a question I’m not so sure about, I don’t know Darrelle Revis that well I know he’s had some holdout issues, the Bucs are not big fans of that.”

Revis will be looking for a significant amount of guaranteed money in any new contract and is known to holdout or threaten to holdout when his guaranteed money dwindles.  “Darrelle Revis is going to have to realize coming off a knee injury his value isn’t what it was two years ago, he’s going to have to prove himself and that is why it is going to be hard to do a deal for him,” Cummings said.

“Since Mark Dominik took over as the Bucs GM (general manager) in 2009 he’s been very consistent with the way he’s handed out guaranteed money, I won’t say signing bonus, because they don’t give very many of those in their deals. 

 

Guaranteed money is usually paid out within the first two years of any contract no matter the length,” Cummings explained.  When asked about reported contract figures being offered by the Buccaneers he replied, “Some of the numbers we’re hearing are just not factual they don’t make sense for the way Mark Dominik does contracts.”

 

What are the chances a trade between the Jets and Buccaneers for Revis occurs before/during the 2013 draft?  “Today … the chances of a Revis deal getting done with the Buccaneers are no better than 50/50 at best they are 50/50,” Cummings said, but did go on to point out that things could change as the draft approaches.  The Buccaneers will be getting a clearer picture of who’ll be available at the #13 overall pick and if they would part with it in order to obtain Revis.

 

 

 

The bolded is curious. The first part of the statement, "Some of the numbers we're hearing are just not factual" implies that the reporter, in fact, has absolute knowledge of what Revis' demands are. But the second part of the statement, "they don't make sense for the way Mark Dominik does contracts" makes it seem like the reporter is simply hypothesizing that, because Dominik hasn't given out large guarantees in the past, that he wouldn't do so with Revis. So, is it a "fact" that the numbers "we're hearing" aren't factual, or is that simply the reporter's conclusion based on what he feels Dominik's M.O. normally is?

 

FWIW, Tampa newspapers are essentially the size and quality of that piece of toilet paper "Metro" garbage they hand you when you get on the subway in NY.

[Sperm Edwards]

Hunter and Slauson don't change the whole scheme of the defense the way that Revis, (especially in combo with Cro), does. 

 

The usual NFL defense is zone most of the time, and zone takes more players than man-to-man.  With Revis taking the best WR alone and usually shutting him down, and with Cro taking the #2 receiver alone and usually shutting him down as well, that frees up an extra player for extra duty who would normally be playing the zone.  That is a huge difference, and while assigning number of wins is imperfect, the effectiveness of the defense goes up a couple of notches with the Revis/Cro combo.

 

We were being facetious with Hunter or Slauson being the cause of 2 wins.  But assigning to wins to either of them is as valid as assigning 2 wins to Revis when given the methodology used to assign them to Revis.  

 

Furthermore, a bad OLineman - to say nothing of 2 bad ones - being replaced by 2 good ones is at least as likely to add up to 2 more wins as a CB.  2 awful linemen in there you can't run and you can't pass.  Especially when our offense doesn't exactly have Aaron Rodgers or Adrian Peterson lining up behind them.  And while no one's saying either of those 2 are good linemen, they were each brought up to illustrate how silly the methodology was.