stoicsentry Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 in the past 5 years top 5 in total offense and top 5 in passing offense both made the playoffs at a 65% clip In other words, top offenses aren't any more valuable than top defenses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 That just might be the post we are all referring to when we jump on Shane about his projection for the team at the start of the year. They do share an agenda, don't they. Of course they are going to be better than 5-11, this offense has been a revelation! What are we blaming me for now, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 What are we blaming me for now, exactly? Global warming, male pattern baldness, the Kennedy assassination. What have you got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 In other words, top offenses aren't any more valuable than top defenses? that seems to be the case. but i didnt look at top defenses over the past 5 years only. 10 years back defense was still more valuable maybe.........the last 5 years only might be a better indicator of how they both stack up. i will check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 ok so over the past 5 years only top 5 ranked defensive teams have gone to the playoffs about 76% of the time. highest number yet. wasn't incredibly scientific but it seems defense can possibly be more valuable still as far as making th eplayoffs go. i'm gonna look to see where these teams average offensive ranking was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Maybe it's that winning or making the playoffs causes a team's defense to finish (statistically) in the top 10 70% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 If you want to play that game, there are 4 teams in that top 10, that are possibly one game from being removed from the playoff hunt. Too early to start playing these games. just sayin'. Um, aren't you the same guy who just finished telling everyone how half of a football season proved beyond doubt how the entire landscape of the NFL has changed (and even then, having to discount about 1/8th of the league as outliers in the process)? Now suddenly 20 years of evidence isn't enough because there's a chance that this season might not hold up to those numbers exactly, despite it currently being on pace to do so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Um, aren't you the same guy who just finished telling everyone how half of a football season proved beyond doubt how the entire landscape of the NFL has changed (and even then, having to discount about 1/8th of the league as outliers in the process)? Now suddenly 20 years of evidence isn't enough because there's a chance that this season might not hold up to those numbers exactly, despite it currently being on pace to do so? Rankings are meaningless, BG. Parity makes all teams the same. There is no difference between the Jaguars and Broncos. There's no point in watching football, working a job, or loving others. All life as we know it is pointless and we will eventually become dust and sent out into the void. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Maybe it's that winning or making the playoffs causes a team's defense to finish (statistically) in the top 10 70% of the time. well since i'm home from work with 2 sick children and am absolutely bored out of my mind i am going to do a little statistical analysis, just for the past 5 years, as it relates to playoff teams conference champions and the eventual superbowl champions. lets see what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 well since i'm home from work with 2 sick children and am absolutely bored out of my mind i am going to do a little statistical analysis, just for the past 5 years, as it relates to playoff teams conference champions and the eventual superbowl champions. lets see what it looks like. Therefore staying home from work makes (or keeps) your children sick. You should go into work so they get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Therefore staying home from work makes (or keeps) your children sick. You should go into work so they get better. ?? anyway i'm done looking over a bunch of stats. the data is interesting. i will type it up so you guys can check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 ok, so i looked at some of the stats of playoff teams from the last 5 years. namely, total offense, total defense, scoring offense and scoring defense. i also included some general information about their standing from the previous year (since it possibly made their schedule a bit weaker). i also included the wining pct. of the other teams in their divisions just as a reference to how weak their division appeared to be. this isn't a terribly thorough scientific analysis, but i didn't want to get too crazy because it likely would have become too long. i calculated some percentages, but there are alot more that can probably be done for analysis. TOTAL OFFENSE SCORING OFFENSE TOTAL DEFENSE SCORING DEFENSE 2012 - total points scored:11,651 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 11.2 8.4 14.1 9.8 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 9.6 6.6 11.6 6.6 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 9.0 7.0 17.3 7.0 2011 - total points scored: 10,788 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 11.5 10.6 15.5 13.0 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 11.3 9.6 17.9 13.1 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 12.8 8.8 16.3 11.3 2010 - total points scored: 11,283 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 13.5 11.1 12.3 9.7 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 17.3 12.6 12.1 6.8 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 16.0 14.0 4.8 3.3 2009 - total points scored: 10,991 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 9.8 7.9 10.6 8.8 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 9.3 8.1 12.3 8.6 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 8.8 6.8 12.5 9.8 2008 - total points scored: 11,279 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 12.2 9.3 9.3 8.3 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 12.8 8.3 10.0 8.8 Average Rank of Conference Chamionship Game Teams 13.3 10.0 6.0 9.0 TOTAL OFFENSE SCORING OFFENSE TOTAL DEFENSE SCORING DEFENSE Average of All Conference Championship Game Teams 2008-2012 12.0 9.4 11.4 8.1 Average of All Conference Championship Winners 2008-2012 9.6 8.6 14.8 11.4 Average of All Conference Championship Losers 2008-2012 14.3 10.1 8.0 4.7 Average of All Superbowl Champions 2008-2012 11.2 10.0 15.0 12.0 Average of All Superbowl Game Losers 2008-2012 8.0 7.2 14.6 10.8 % of Teams Who Made Play-offs After Being 3rd or 4th in Division Previous Year: 38% % of Play-off Teams With Total Off and Def Rankings in Top Half Of League: 43% % of Play-off Teams With Scoring Off and Scoring Def Ranks in Top Half Of League: 57% % of Play-off Teams With Total Off Rank in Bottom 1/3 of League (22nd or Higher): 13% % of Play-off Teams With Total Def Rank in Bottom 1/3 of league (22nd or Higher): 22% % of Play-off Teams With Top 8 (top 25% of league) Scoring Offense: 45% % of Play-off Teams With Top 8 (top 25% of league) Scoring Defense: 48% to me the most telling stat here is that the winners of the championship games favored a strong offensive team by a pretty wide margin. overall it would appear that a stronger offense favors a stronger defense. 2010 was a year where strong defenses dominated the play-off field though. if you guys have any other comparisons you'd like to see let me know. i was going to do more but i got tired of math, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I am impressed at how neckdemon got his columns to line up. Lord knows how long that must have taken him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I am impressed at how neckdemon got his columns to line up. Lord knows how long that must have taken him. told you i was bored. i needed something to occupy my time yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 told you i was bored. i needed something to occupy my time yesterday Very well done. I am not surprised by your findings in the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 jets scoring offense rank: 31st jets scoring defense rank: 25th chances of making playoffs without a significant turnaround in one of these categories? likely <1% edit: i originally wrote 0% because it would be unprecedented....but since it's mathematically possible that we cintinue this crappy play and still make it if we win enough games somehow i changed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bugg Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 ok, so i looked at some of the stats of playoff teams from the last 5 years. namely, total offense, total defense, scoring offense and scoring defense. i also included some general information about their standing from the previous year (since it possibly made their schedule a bit weaker). i also included the wining pct. of the other teams in their divisions just as a reference to how weak their division appeared to be. this isn't a terribly thorough scientific analysis, but i didn't want to get too crazy because it likely would have become too long. i calculated some percentages, but there are alot more that can probably be done for analysis. TOTAL OFFENSE SCORING OFFENSE TOTAL DEFENSE SCORING DEFENSE 2012 - total points scored:11,651 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 11.2 8.4 14.1 9.8 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 9.6 6.6 11.6 6.6 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 9.0 7.0 17.3 7.0 2011 - total points scored: 10,788 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 11.5 10.6 15.5 13.0 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 11.3 9.6 17.9 13.1 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 12.8 8.8 16.3 11.3 2010 - total points scored: 11,283 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 13.5 11.1 12.3 9.7 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 17.3 12.6 12.1 6.8 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 16.0 14.0 4.8 3.3 2009 - total points scored: 10,991 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 9.8 7.9 10.6 8.8 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 9.3 8.1 12.3 8.6 Average Rank of Conference Championship Game Teams 8.8 6.8 12.5 9.8 2008 - total points scored: 11,279 All Play-off Teams Average Rank 12.2 9.3 9.3 8.3 Average Rank of Divisional Rd. Teams 12.8 8.3 10.0 8.8 Average Rank of Conference Chamionship Game Teams 13.3 10.0 6.0 9.0 TOTAL OFFENSE SCORING OFFENSE TOTAL DEFENSE SCORING DEFENSE Average of All Conference Championship Game Teams 2008-2012 12.0 9.4 11.4 8.1 Average of All Conference Championship Winners 2008-2012 9.6 8.6 14.8 11.4 Average of All Conference Championship Losers 2008-2012 14.3 10.1 8.0 4.7 Average of All Superbowl Champions 2008-2012 11.2 10.0 15.0 12.0 Average of All Superbowl Game Losers 2008-2012 8.0 7.2 14.6 10.8 % of Teams Who Made Play-offs After Being 3rd or 4th in Division Previous Year: 38% % of Play-off Teams With Total Off and Def Rankings in Top Half Of League: 43% % of Play-off Teams With Scoring Off and Scoring Def Ranks in Top Half Of League: 57% % of Play-off Teams With Total Off Rank in Bottom 1/3 of League (22nd or Higher): 13% % of Play-off Teams With Total Def Rank in Bottom 1/3 of league (22nd or Higher): 22% % of Play-off Teams With Top 8 (top 25% of league) Scoring Offense: 45% % of Play-off Teams With Top 8 (top 25% of league) Scoring Defense: 48% to me the most telling stat here is that the winners of the championship games favored a strong offensive team by a pretty wide margin. overall it would appear that a stronger offense favors a stronger defense. 2010 was a year where strong defenses dominated the play-off field though. if you guys have any other comparisons you'd like to see let me know. i was going to do more but i got tired of math, lol I'm very impressed. Good work. Again, you have to change some variable to change the equation. To bring it home the only real move left is seeing if Simms might be a player. No 31st ranked offense is getting in the playoffs. Simms might suck but it's a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CobraVerde Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 fielding a top ten anything is pointless if youre not winning. We can have a historical defense but no one is going to care cause they are only talking about how bad our offense is. Defense may win championships but offenses win games... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaJetsFan Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Friggin Texans are AWESOME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Friggin Texans are AWESOME! LOL You don't read. That's cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 This whole concept reminds me of that Rodney Dangerfield line in Caddyshack....."That hat should come with a free bowl of soup, oh but Judge it looks good on you though!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 like i said,,,,chances of making the play-offs with the terrible level of play? close to 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Teams with a historically bad offense to make the playoffs - 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Teams with a historically bad offense to make the playoffs - 0? lol, pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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