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2014 Draft order with Projected Compensatory picks


eboozer

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4th and 5th would be great if they got bumped.

What decides that

A combination of playing time, salary, playoffs(how far a team goes) and pro bowl and All-Pro honors.

Landry and DeVito give us a good shot to move to a 3rd and 4th rounder. I would pee myself if that happened!!

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I don't know if he right about Keller not counting at all. He got a significant contact from Miami, whether he got injured early or not. He could be right, but he was (on paper) a significant FA loss for the Jets. He may be 100% correct but it doesn't sound right. He missed playing time due to a serious injury, not skill or performance that led to demotion. The theory is, the Jets would have had this $6M TE had the Dolphins not signed him away from us, causing a loss that the league now compensates us for.

Anyone know of an example where this happened and the original team was denied a pick?

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The 4th sounds good, the two 7's are almost worthless most of the time,

we don't need 3 Mr Irrelivents from the same draft, or do we ?

 

The basic idea behind the late 7th rounders is that it gives teams first crack at what would be the UDFA pool.  It's a guaranteed pickup as opposed to a competition for the player you like (which actually happens surprisingly often with UDFAs, or at least the top ones).  Certainly nothing spectacular, but the idea is it's better having it than not.

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Pretty sure Matt Flynn counted when gb got a compensatory pick this past draft, and I know he didn't play on anywhere near 20% of Seattle's snaps. He got big bucks from Seattle so he counted. Therefore it seems unlikely that we get absolutely nothing for Keller. He got over $4M from Miami and for a TE that would be more than a 7th no matter how many snaps he played (or didn't).

Can anyone confirm or deny a higher priced player who goes on IR in August yields no pick to the team that list him 5 months earlier (or any time before June 1st) in free agency? It's possible but it doesn't sound "right" to me.

This would change one of those 7th rounders into probably a 5th or 6th. Also the money Greene got from Tennessee ($4.25M in 2013) could also be worth more than just a 7th round compensatory pick, though not likely more than a 6th.

I think it also comes down to how much more of a relative loss Greene or Keller was compared to other FA losses around the league, since they only award 32 of them for everyone. If we get 4, as we should, they're worth what they're worth. To replace Greene, who signed for good money, the Jets were "forced" to sign Goodson and trade for Ivory. Formulas aside, since I don't believe this process follows a strict formula 100% and judgment is a factor, this is the supposed purpose of the process. And to re-sign both of these guys we'd have had to shell out about $9M. That's more significant than a pair of 7th rounders.

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Pretty sure Matt Flynn counted when gb got a compensatory pick this past draft, and I know he didn't play on anywhere near 20% of Seattle's snaps. He got big bucks from Seattle so he counted. Therefore it seems unlikely that we get absolutely nothing for Keller. He got over $4M from Miami and for a TE that would be more than a 7th no matter how many snaps he played (or didn't).

Can anyone confirm or deny a higher priced player who goes on IR in August yields no pick to the team that list him 5 months earlier (or any time before June 1st) in free agency? It's possible but it doesn't sound "right" to me.

This would change one of those 7th rounders into probably a 5th or 6th. Also the money Greene got from Tennessee ($4.25M in 2013) could also be worth more than just a 7th round compensatory pick, though not likely more than a 6th.

I think it also comes down to how much more of a relative loss Greene or Keller was compared to other FA losses around the league, since they only award 32 of them for everyone. If we get 4, as we should, they're worth what they're worth. To replace Greene, who signed for good money, the Jets were "forced" to sign Goodson and trade for Ivory. Formulas aside, since I don't believe this process follows a strict formula 100% and judgment is a factor, this is the supposed purpose of the process. And to re-sign both of these guys we'd have had to shell out about $9M. That's more significant than a pair of 7th rounders

getting a 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th would be great. We could get 7 of the top 135 picks. I'd like to think Idzik could get some very good talent with those picks and maybe hit on a couple late rounders

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The 4th sounds good, the two 7's are almost worthless most of the time,

we don't need 3 Mr Irrelivents from the same draft, or do we ?

 

 

The 4th sounds good, the two 7's are almost worthless most of the time,

we don't need 3 Mr Irrelivents from the same draft, or do we ?

Antonio Allen was a 7th rd pick and he's been a solid player so far and I think he will continue to improve. It's very possible to find contributors there. 

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Antonio Allen was a 7th rd pick and he's been a solid player so far and I think he will continue to improve. It's very possible to find contributors there. 

Austin  Howard and "Snacks"..... 'nuff said.

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Austin  Howard and "Snacks"..... 'nuff said.

They were UDFA i think, but I understand your point. Those picks aren't garbage picks. They generally take some time to contribute outside of ST's, but developmental guys are paramount to fielding a competitive team for the long haul. Tanny didn't know about that. 

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Antonio Allen was a 7th rd pick and he's been a solid player so far and I think he will continue to improve. It's very possible to find contributors there. 

 

Agreed.  That is the object of the draft game. In addition to finding impact players in early rounds, the ability to identify a few hidden gems and guys who can stick and contribute as special teams/depth players is what separates good and bad teams.  The more picks we keep, instead of bartering them to trade up, the greater the chance that we strike gold in the mid and late rounds.

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Agreed.  That is the object of the draft game. In addition to finding impact players in early rounds, the ability to identify a few hidden gems and guys who can stick and contribute as special teams/depth players is what separates good and bad teams.  The more picks we keep, instead of bartering them to trade up, the greater the chance that we strike gold in the mid and late rounds.

You mean not building the depth of the team through other teams scrap heaps? What a magical concept. :D

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You mean not building the depth of the team through other teams scrap heaps? What a magical concept. :biggrin:

 

 

Crazy stuff, isn't it?  It blows my mind how so-called professionals just phuck up on the basics.  And then still get jobs in other organizations or with the traveling minstral shows on TV.

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Pretty sure Matt Flynn counted when gb got a compensatory pick this past draft, and I know he didn't play on anywhere near 20% of Seattle's snaps. He got big bucks from Seattle so he counted. Therefore it seems unlikely that we get absolutely nothing for Keller. He got over $4M from Miami and for a TE that would be more than a 7th no matter how many snaps he played (or didn't).

Can anyone confirm or deny a higher priced player who goes on IR in August yields no pick to the team that list him 5 months earlier (or any time before June 1st) in free agency? It's possible but it doesn't sound "right" to me.

This would change one of those 7th rounders into probably a 5th or 6th. Also the money Greene got from Tennessee ($4.25M in 2013) could also be worth more than just a 7th round compensatory pick, though not likely more than a 6th.

I think it also comes down to how much more of a relative loss Greene or Keller was compared to other FA losses around the league, since they only award 32 of them for everyone. If we get 4, as we should, they're worth what they're worth. To replace Greene, who signed for good money, the Jets were "forced" to sign Goodson and trade for Ivory. Formulas aside, since I don't believe this process follows a strict formula 100% and judgment is a factor, this is the supposed purpose of the process. And to re-sign both of these guys we'd have had to shell out about $9M. That's more significant than a pair of 7th rounders.

and our left guard last year did he not sign with bears or with other team we lost 3 players that were starters i think we should get a 3rd i hope we do get a 3 ,4 or 5 ,7,7

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Antonio Allen was a 7th rd pick and he's been a solid player so far and I think he will continue to improve. It's very possible to find contributors there. 

and i loved that pick the kid had 4th round grade  when we got him with a 7th thats just butter loved it

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The basic idea behind the late 7th rounders is that it gives teams first crack at what would be the UDFA pool.  It's a guaranteed pickup as opposed to a competition for the player you like (which actually happens surprisingly often with UDFAs, or at least the top ones).  Certainly nothing spectacular, but the idea is it's better having it than not.

Exactly.

Those late picks are when it's good to start drafting for need, too. Try to fill the holes you missed over the rest of the draft & free agency. Better shot of one of those late guys making an impact if there's a need for them to.

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and our left guard last year did he not sign with bears or with other team we lost 3 players that were starters i think we should get a 3rd i hope we do get a 3 ,4 or 5 ,7,7

 

True, but Slauson would be a 7th rounder because Chicago paid him like a nickel over the veteran minimum.  So he would count, but only the 4 most valuable count.  Slauson would be the 5th-most valuable.  So he counts in terms of counting # of UFAs lost vs gained, but he's not one of our 4 biggest.  

 

He would serve to offset a similarly-priced UFA we did add so that a low-priced UFA we added won't cancel out one of our top 4 losses.  This happened to the team almost 10 years ago.  We lost McKenzie and Jordan as UFAs, and both of them signed big enough contracts (McKenzie like $7M/year and Jordan $5M per) for us to get 3rd-4th rounders for each.  We only got one 3rd rounder in the '06 draft (which we used on Eric Smith) because some ~$1M useless sack of garbage - I think it was Barry Gardner - canceled out one of those two high compensatory picks we'd have otherwise gotten.  Another reason why sometimes it isn't the move you make but rather the move you don't make that reaps benefits.

 

Depending on how they weight the UFAs as individuals, since it isn't an exact formula, Slauson may cancel out Goodson.  We don't see anything there, but what it does is it prevents Goodson from canceling out Greene.  (Those may not be the players who cancel out each other in actuality, but you get my drift).

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getting a 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th would be great. We could get 7 of the top 135 picks. I'd like to think Idzik could get some very good talent with those picks and maybe hit on a couple late rounders

 

Yes, it would be great.  I don't know if I'm right or dead-wrong, which is why I asked the board if anyone knew better.

 

It doesn't make sense that losing a pair of UFAs, each of whom was paid >$4M for 2013, could net zero compensatory picks due to playing time.  Playing time should maybe tweak the pick a little bit, but we still lost significant players (on paper) as UFAs.

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True, but Slauson would be a 7th rounder because Chicago paid him like a nickel over the veteran minimum.  So he would count, but only the 4 most valuable count.  Slauson would be the 5th-most valuable.  So he counts in terms of counting # of UFAs lost vs gained, but he's not one of our 4 biggest.  

 

He would serve to offset a similarly-priced UFA we did add so that a low-priced UFA we added won't cancel out one of our top 4 losses.  This happened to the team almost 10 years ago.  We lost McKenzie and Jordan as UFAs, and both of them signed big enough contracts (McKenzie like $7M/year and Jordan $5M per) for us to get 3rd-4th rounders for each.  We only got one 3rd rounder in the '06 draft (which we used on Eric Smith) because some ~$1M useless sack of garbage - I think it was Barry Gardner - canceled out one of those two high compensatory picks we'd have otherwise gotten.  Another reason why sometimes it isn't the move you make but rather the move you don't make that reaps benefits.

 

Depending on how they weight the UFAs as individuals, since it isn't an exact formula, Slauson may cancel out Goodson.  We don't see anything there, but what it does is it prevents Goodson from canceling out Greene.  (Those may not be the players who cancel out each other in actuality, but you get my drift).

Good summation! It's gonna be a long 3 months waiting for the draft. I don't think we'll be big players in FA, maybe picking up a few mid tier players. S, TE and maybe a 2nd tier WR(Macklin, Nicks, Tate). Idzik seems very patient.... which is good for the team, but bad for the hyped up fans like myself.

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True, but Slauson would be a 7th rounder because Chicago paid him like a nickel over the veteran minimum.  So he would count, but only the 4 most valuable count.  Slauson would be the 5th-most valuable.  So he counts in terms of counting # of UFAs lost vs gained, but he's not one of our 4 biggest.  

 

He would serve to offset a similarly-priced UFA we did add so that a low-priced UFA we added won't cancel out one of our top 4 losses.  This happened to the team almost 10 years ago.  We lost McKenzie and Jordan as UFAs, and both of them signed big enough contracts (McKenzie like $7M/year and Jordan $5M per) for us to get 3rd-4th rounders for each.  We only got one 3rd rounder in the '06 draft (which we used on Eric Smith) because some ~$1M useless sack of garbage - I think it was Barry Gardner - canceled out one of those two high compensatory picks we'd have otherwise gotten.  Another reason why sometimes it isn't the move you make but rather the move you don't make that reaps benefits.

 

Depending on how they weight the UFAs as individuals, since it isn't an exact formula, Slauson may cancel out Goodson.  We don't see anything there, but what it does is it prevents Goodson from canceling out Greene.  (Those may not be the players who cancel out each other in actuality, but you get my drift).

that sucks!! so iguess is a 4th for us

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