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Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead previews 2014 Jets, (hints at discord between Rex and Idzik).

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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http://thebiglead.com/2014/09/05/new-york-jets-2014-preview/

 

 

 

New York Jets 2014 Season Preview & Predictions

by Jason McIntyre

 

When you go to the playoffs in your first two years as a head coach, then win four road games and get to two AFC Title Championships, expectations don’t just rise, they soar. Especially for a franchise that has struggled over the last four decades like the New York Jets.
 
Rex Ryan blew into New York, blubbery and mouthy, a corpulent tornado who found quick success on the strength of a havoc-wreaking defense and a fierce ground-and-pound offensive attack.
 
But as quickly as Rex turned into a quote machine that fans and media couldn’t get enough of, he flopped. Yes, GM Mike Tanenbaum deserved much of the blame for botching the 2008 and 2010 drafts, and absolutely butchering free agency to the point they fired him. And offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was a disaster as well. He was jettisoned, too.
 
Then QB Mark Sanchez, above average in those four playoff wins, never got his act together during the regular season, crumbled when Santonio Holmes chewed him out in the huddle, and never recovered.

1077967501.jpg?w=1000

 

Rex appeared to be a dead man coaching last year after he inexplicably put Sanchez back into apreseason game … only to have Sanchez suffer a shoulder injury and miss the entire season. Hiscareer with the Jets was over. Was Rex’s too?

Ryan survived, though a pessimist could call it a stay of execution. He beat the Falcons (fresh off an NFC Championship game appearance), the Patriots and the Saints, and the Jets won three of four to finish the season with not only a modicum of dignity – but in the playoff mix.

But make no mistake – this team now belongs to John Idzik, the GM who says all the right things about Rex Ryan in public, but is battling him behind closed doors while struggling mightily in his first run as an NFL Decision Maker.

Sheldon Richardson was the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2013. Who can take credit for that, Idzik, or defensive mastermind Ryan? Geno Smith was a bust in his rookie year, arguably the worst QB in the NFL. Who takes credit for that? And on, and on, and on. Ultimately, Ryan’s going to have to get to the playoffs this year, or he’s almost certainly going to get canned.

Offense

decker-trip-10-15-12.gif?w=1000

 

Finally, for the first time in the Rex Ryan era, the Jets added significant offensive weapons. Of course, there’s concern over both of them. First: Eric Decker. With over 2,300 yards and 24 touchdowns over the last two years, he’s been one of the most prolific receivers in the NFL. But was he a Peyton Manning creation? Can he make the leap from being a productive No. 2 receiver to a stand-out No. 1? It’s impossible for Jets fans not to think back to the Super Bowl, and what happened when Decker went up against an elite cornerback, like he will all season: 1 catch, six yards,targeted just five times. Denver clearly didn’t think that highly of Decker – they let him walk without even making an offer and then signed Emmanuel Sanders from Pittsburgh.

Then there’s running back Chris Johnson, who only turns 29 this month, and has had over 1,000 yards in his last six seasons in the NFL, but lacks … something. Sure, he still has game-breaking speed, but if he were still an elite runner, wouldn’t the NFL have been lining up for his services? Let’s face it – in the last couple years, he’s turned into a back who will break a huge run, do nothing for 14 more carries, then peel off a 20-yarder and he’s hit the 100-yard mark, as if that means something. Last year, CJ hit rock bottom – a career-low 3.9 yards per carry. The reason to be optimistic? The last couple years, he’s been the No. 1 guy in Tennessee, and now, he’ll likely split carries with thumper Chris Ivory.

If all that sounded negative, here’s why I’m optimistic: Ground-and-Pound could return – the offensive line, with the addition of Breno Giacomini from Seattle, can return to its halcyon days of 2009 and 2010 – with CJ/Ivory/Bilal Powell, and the Jets could keep Geno Smith’s passes nice and easy with sure-handed Decker and rookie tight end Jace Amaro. Smith can’t play any worse (21 interceptions, 55 percent completions) and if he’s terrible, they finally have a capable backup for the first time in the Rex Ryan era (Mike Vick).

 

dee-milliner-picks-off-ryan-tannehill.gi

 

Defense

The gap between the skill level of the secondary and the defensive line has to be the biggest chasm in the league. One could argue the Jets have a top-3 defensive line in the NFL: Mo Wilkerson is an All-Pro, Richardson was the DROY, and nose tackle Damon “Snacks” Harrison was a golden undrafted free agent find. I really like the backup nose tackle, Kenrick Ellis, who has shown flashes in his first three seasons despite modest stats (41 tackles).

The secondary, however, is in shambles. They didn’t want to pay to keep Antonio Cromartie (I had no problem with that), and then Idzik misjudged the free agent market, only signing Dimitri Patterson, who played in Miami last year. Idzik must be all-in on Dee Milliner, the 2013 rookie who was benched last year, because all they did was draft Dexter McDougle in the 3rd round (injured for most of his 2013 season at Maryland) and Brandon Dixon in the 6th round.

Here’s how it worked out: Patterson went AWOL in the preseason, failed to show up for a game, and they cut him; McDougal suffered a season-ending injury in preseason, and Dixon was cut (he’s currently on the Bucs practice squad). So basically Idzik went 0-for-3. Oh, and it gets better! Milliner suffered a high-ankle sprain and it looks like he won’t play for possibly the first two weeks, though it could be more.

Their week one starters against Oakland rookie QB Derek Carr: Antonio Allen (7th round draft pick from South Carolina who has shown promise and had a solid rookie year and a better sophomore campaign) and Darrin Walls. Allen was a safety in college and played safety last year; Walls has four career starts and was undrafted. Remember when the Jets had Revis and Cromartie a few years ago?

mo-wilkerson-hula-dance-after-sacking-dr

 

If you can assume the secondary will struggle, I believe the success of the defense falls on the shoulders of the linebackers, who are mediocre, but have potential. Likes: End rushers Quinton Coples and Antwan Barnes (whenever he returns from injury). Inside Demario Davis fills a need (literally, he fills holes) and David Harris probably has one more good year left at a high level. The big question: Can these guys defend tight ends and running backs in the flat? The last couple years it has been a struggle.

The other massive question is whether or not the Jets defense can actually create turnovers. They were 2nd-to-last in takeaways last year (15; Houston was last with 11, Detroit was third-to-last with 22). In 2012, they were tied for 26th in takeaways. A defense that wasn’t creating turnovers and an offense that couldn’t move the ball … how did this team win eight games last year?

If the edge rushers (toss in Jason Babin, assuming he’s not cut when Barnes returns) can pressure the QB so he doesn’t have time to pick apart the patchwork secondary, then the Jets will be in great shape. If not … well, rookie safety Calvin Pryor could lead the defense in tackles, and that’s never a good thing.

Schedule Projections

vs Oakland – WIN
@ Green Bay – LOSS
vs Chicago – LOSS
vs Detroit – WIN
@ San Diego – WIN
vs Denver – LOSS
@ New England – LOSS
vs Buffalo – WIN
@ Kansas City – WIN
vs Pittsburgh – LOSS
@ Buffalo – LOSS
vs Miami – WIN
@ Minnesota – WIN
@ Tennessee – WIN
vs New England – LOSS
@ Miami – WIN

9-7. Playoffs. Sixth seed.

A few things to keep in mind:

* Yes, there’s a murderer’s row of QBs in weeks 2-7 (Rodgers, Cutler, Stafford, Rivers, P Manning, Brady)

* It’s worth noting that last year, four of those teams had bad defenses that were among the worst in the NFL in yards per play allow (Packers 28th, Bears 32nd, Lions 24th, Chargers 29th), which is why I have the Jets going 2-2 in those four. They’ll have to win at least two heading into Peyton/Brady (the latter on a short week)

* Yes, I have the Jets sweeping the Dolphins (hasn’t happened since 2007)

* It’s maybe a little nutty to have the Jets winning on the road against 2013 playoff teams (Chargers, Chiefs)

* You can see my full NFL picks here, but I’ve got the Jets as a Wild Card team, with the following playoff teams in the AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Broncos (division winners) and … Chargers

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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What proof does he have that Idzik and Rex are battling behind closed doors?

Why continue to work this angle?

He was asked about it on Twitter and he replied that it was something he's been hearing. He is pretty plugged in with NFL media types. It makes sense--if you're Rex, and you're on a one-year deal, and the GM sits on $21 mil in cap space for future investment, you should be upset about it. There's a conflict of interest there.

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Jet Nut

Jet Nut

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He was asked about it on Twitter and he replied that it was something he's been hearing. He is pretty plugged in with NFL media types. It makes sense--if you're Rex, and you're on a one-year deal, and the GM sits on $21 mil in cap space for future investment, you should be upset about it. There's a conflict of interest there.

I get Rex not being happy about the corner situation, but battling is a different story.

I don't think Rex is on a one year deal and/or if the Jets tank because of the D and Idzik blames Rex, Idzik might be gone.

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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I get Rex not being happy about the corner situation, but battling is a different story.

I don't think Rex is on a one year deal and/or if the Jets tank because of the D and Idzik blames Rex, Idzik might be gone.

It's de facto one-year.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/story?storyId=10303937&city=newyork&src=desktop

Ryan won't be a lame-duck coach next season. He signed a multiyear extension through at least 2016, league and team sources told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter. However, it's a complex deal that doesn't offer as much security as it appears.

The contract is based heavily on incentives for postseason victories. There's a wrinkle in that the deal isn't fully guaranteed after 2015, according to a league source, meaning the Jets could fire Ryan without having to eat a huge amount of money.

Agree that "battling" is strong. Idzik better watch his ass, too. Woody loved Tannenbaum like a son and he still shanked him. If the team nosedives this year, and Jon Gruden decides he wants to be coach/GM, Woody will have a heart attack.

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Jet Nut

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It's de facto one-year.

Agree that "battling" is strong. Idzik better watch his ass, too. Woody loved Tannenbaum like a son and he still shanked him. If the team nosedives this year, and Jon Gruden decides he wants to be coach/GM, Woody will have a heart attack.

Maybe but think Woodys going to be more loyal to Rex over Idzik, he seems firmly in his corner.

Unless, as you said a Gruden type emerges

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Matt39

Matt39

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It's de facto one-year.

Agree that "battling" is strong. Idzik better watch his ass, too. Woody loved Tannenbaum like a son and he still shanked him. If the team nosedives this year, and Jon Gruden decides he wants to be coach/GM, Woody will have a heart attack.

I think Woody would fall for Billick over Gruden.

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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I think Woody would fall for Billick over Gruden.

Woody: "Hey, uh, Roger. I, uh, I'm having trouble selling tickets and I, uh, well. Do you have any names for a new..."

Roger Goodell: "Tony Dungy. I'll pull him out of NBC in a second if you give me Rex for NFLN. We're dumping Mariucci. He's not the demo."

Woody: "Well uhhhh."

Roger: "Woody...I wasn't asking."

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Matt39

Matt39

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Woody: "Hey, uh, Roger. I, uh, I'm having trouble selling tickets and I, uh, well. Do you have any names for a new..."

Roger Goodell: "Tony Dungy. I'll pull him out of NBC in a second if you give me Rex for NFLN. We're dumping Mariucci. He's not the demo."

Woody: "Well uhhhh."

Roger: "Woody...I wasn't asking."

Ha. I actually wouldn't hate Dungy. The guy won a lot of games both places. Don't think he coaches again. Don't think Gruden does either though.

Would gauge Carroll's interest with a blank check though. Triumphant return to his beginnings and get some revenge with the Pats.

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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Ha. I actually wouldn't hate Dungy. The guy won a lot of games both places. Don't think he coaches again. Don't think Gruden does either though.

Would gauge Carroll's interest with a blank check though. Triumphant return to his beginnings and get some revenge with the Pats.

Leave Paul Allen and two Seattle beat reporters to come work for Woody and deal with Manish? Hell no.

Dungy as an overseer/VP type would work, though. I think he could do a good job protecting the football ops from Woody's clown car full of Wharton grads.

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PatsFanTX

PatsFanTX

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Woody wants a lightning rod whether it be coach or QB.

I wouldn't doubt Kraft is much different tbh

Kraft and Woody are are complete opposite owners of a NF L franchise.

Kraft is a self-made billionaire who had season tickets in the 60's and 70's when the Pats sucked.

Woody pulled the silver spoon out of ass and used 5% to buy the Jets.

Gotta give Woody credit though, he made a ton of money with his Jets investment.

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FloridaJetsFan

FloridaJetsFan

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Kraft and Woody are are complete opposite owners of a NF L franchise.

Kraft is a self-made billionaire who had season tickets in the 60's and 70's when the Pats sucked.

Woody pulled the silver spoon out of ass and used 5% to buy the Jets.

Gotta give Woody credit though, he made a ton of money with his Jets investment.

 

Oh yeah - Kraft isn't a douche Indian Giver that gave his Super Bowl ring to Putin and then cried that he stole it two years later. No, he's all Integrity and sh*t. I think Putin invaded Ukraine because of it.

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Matt39

Matt39

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Kraft and Woody are are complete opposite owners of a NF L franchise.

Kraft is a self-made billionaire who had season tickets in the 60's and 70's when the Pats sucked.

Woody pulled the silver spoon out of ass and used 5% to buy the Jets.

Gotta give Woody credit though, he made a ton of money with his Jets investment.

 

Kraft is just as attention starved as Woody is. Dont kid yourself.

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Savage69

Savage69

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Kraft and Woody are are complete opposite owners of a NF L franchise.

Kraft is a self-made billionaire who had season tickets in the 60's and 70's when the Pats sucked.

Woody pulled the silver spoon out of ass and used 5% to buy the Jets.

Gotta give Woody credit though, he made a ton of money with his Jets investment.

Not quite Tex do you know who Jacob Hiatt was?? Kraft married into the family of the chairman of  Rand-Whitney who hired him.

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BP

BP

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Not quite Tex do you know who Jacob Hiatt was?? Kraft married into the family of the chairman of  Rand-Whitney who hired him.

Wait a second, are you saying Robert Kraft didn't invent macaroni and cheese like TX said he did?

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PatsFanTX

PatsFanTX

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Not quite Tex do you know who Jacob Hiatt was?? Kraft married into the family of the chairman of  Rand-Whitney who hired him.

Damn Savage, I miss our conversations.

Jacob Hiatt was Myra's father who owned a business that was ready to go into bankruptcy.

Robert Kraft turned it around into a $1billion industry today.

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Integrity28

Integrity28

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Kraft and Woody are are complete opposite owners of a NF L franchise.

Kraft is a self-made billionaire who had season tickets in the 60's and 70's when the Pats sucked.

Woody pulled the silver spoon out of ass and used 5% to buy the Jets.

Gotta give Woody credit though, he made a ton of money with his Jets investment.

 

Interesting stuff. Really.

 

Kraft only looks like a good owner because the franchise won the lotto with Brady. Otherwise, he's a nose-picking, muttering idiot who fired Bill after 4 years and they are still moaning up here about never winning anything.

 

Woody looks like a bad owner because he tries too hard to win the headlines and the Lombardi, and since he's not good at the latter it looks as if he only cares about the former.

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