Mehta: Fitz reacts to poor QB ranking

[Mike135]

4 minutes ago, cant wait said:

he needs to play with irrational confidence otherwise the jets are screwed 

Sounds like a plan to me.  Go out there and try to raise the level of his play.  We can't afford conservative play, especially with out first 6 opponents.  

Fitz will either succeed and potentially jump to the mid-tier of QBs, or it'll be Geno-Time!  

[JiFtheOracle]

1 minute ago, elgoman said:

I think you need a deep threat to take the top off unless your QB is Brady but maybe Forte or Amaro can ameliorate this problem, we'll see.

Not if your QB cant hit the deep threat.  Which ours cant.  Fitz did pretty well without a deep threat last year.  In fact, any time he tried to hit one, it was picked off or incomplete.  

So I guess what I'm saying is, the absence of a burner like Smith will in turn be the absence of a ton of incompletions and/or interceptions which should increase Fitz's completion percentage. 

[Beerfish]

24 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Good because wagering will get them both suspended.

Bets = debts = punchs to the jaw.

[peebag]

10 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

17 times for me.

you should use bigger letters

[UpstateJetsGuru]

18 minutes ago, JiF said:

In addition to Forte/Powell and hopefully Amaro and Enunwa are giving Fitz some easier looks and not solely relying on the WR's.  I'm also hoping that the lack of a deep threat can help with his completion percentage.  I know the old saying, you need someone to take the top off, but you really dont.  Not in this offense. Not with Fitz.  Just look at the Pats high powered offense predicated on the short passing game.  I cant even count how many times on 3rd down Fitz would just throw the go route to Smith.  It was like ******* deja vu out there each game, each 3rd down....lets throw the go route that hasnt been completed all season long!!!!  It used to drive me crazy.

What's most important, is Fitz needs the run game to be potent.  There were only a few games that Fitz was able to perform well despite no running game.  And Week 17 was a perfect example of what he looks like with zero run support...and It aint good.  I think those factors can help with his accuracy. 

Believe it or it, Fitz was 3rd best in the NFL over the course of the 2013 and 2014 seasons in completion percentage over 20+ yards...

[Integrity28]

59 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

1. Namath

2. Chad

3. Vinny

4. Sanchez

5. O'Brien

6. Todd

7. Ryan

not sure where geno would eventually show up but it would be closer to the bottom.

he did regress but look at what he had?  in 2011 3 of his top 5 weapons entering the season were out of football in 2012 and we had the Holmes issue.  In 2012 he had the worst talent in the league to throw to after Holmes got hurt early and keller was hurt most of the year.  Hard not to regress w/ that.

In all fairness, if we're going to compare all the QBs we've had to Geno and the shoulda, woulda, coulda advanced statistics... sh*t, Geno is the greatest QB we've ever had-not-had.

[Colgateman]

Honestly, I am not the biggest Fitzpatrick fan and I have hated on him all offseason, but it's hard not to root for the guy, and since he is now back in Jet Green, I am going to root for the man to help the Jets REALLY win for the first time since those 09-10 seasons. 

[nyjunc]

10 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

In all fairness, if we're going to compare all the QBs we've had to Geno and the shoulda, woulda, coulda advanced statistics... sh*t, Geno is the greatest QB we've ever had-not-had.

I don't think anyone has called him a good QB, obviously he has mostly struggled for us.  I think some folks want to see him play w/ the talent we have now.  

[Jetsfan80]

19 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

In all fairness, if we're going to compare all the QBs we've had to Geno and the shoulda, woulda, coulda advanced statistics... sh*t, Geno is the greatest QB we've ever had-not-had.

The guy actually has the gall to put Mark Sanchez above Ken O'Brien and then proceed to explain how Geno Smith gets an "incomplete" grade entering his 4th season in the NFL.  QB expert for sure, this one.

[Smashmouth]

2 hours ago, Pac said:

Mark Sanchez' career to this point >>>>>>>>>>> than Fitz'.

you are hilarious

[elgoman]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Not if your QB cant hit the deep threat.  Which ours cant.  Fitz did pretty well without a deep threat last year.  In fact, any time he tried to hit one, it was picked off or incomplete.  

So I guess what I'm saying is, the absence of a burner like Smith will in turn be the absence of a ton of incompletions and/or interceptions which should increase Fitz's completion percentage. 

If our QB can't hit a deep threat and his short/mid passing isn't good enough, the offense becomes anemic. This is essentially why Bradford fails. He isn't good enough in the short to mid area  to overcome his lack of deep passing ability. So either Fitz offsets his deep passing problems in other ways or we should find a new starter.

[UpstateJetsGuru]

7 minutes ago, elgoman said:

If our QB can't hit a deep threat and his short/mid passing isn't good enough, the offense becomes anemic. This is essentially why Bradford isn't good. He isn't good enough in the short to mid area of the fields to overcome his lack of deep passing ability. So either Fitz offsets his deep passing problems in other ways or we should find a new starter.

Fitz is 12-5 in his last 17 starts with over 4300 yards with 40 total TD's  (37 passing) to 15 INT's. In his combined previous 2 seasons (prior to 2016) he was 3rd best in the NFL in completions 20+ yards.  I think maybe his injury and lack of a skilled deep threat may have hindered his deep game a bit. Pretty lofty production for a guy without an arm, huh?

[elgoman]

Just now, UpstateJetsGuru said:

Fitz is 12-5 in his last 17 starts with over 4300 yards with 40 total TD's  (37 passing) to 15 INT's. In his combined previous 2 seasons (prior to 2016) he was 3rd best in the NFL in completions 20+ yards.  I think maybe his injury and lack of a skilled deep threat may have hindered his deep game a bit. Pretty lofty production for a guy without an arm, huh?

That record isn't contextualized and sounds convenient when you only factor in 17 games. The more pertinent question is what Fitz's record is against good teams. The answer: bad. The only reason Fitz is at 12-5 over his last 17 games is because we played a slate of bad defenses and teams last year. Thus your whole "12-5" record statistic is meaningless when we talk about playoffs and championship aaspirations. So again, if Fitz cannot improve or otherwise supplement his  deep passing ability, we should be looking for a new starter (and we will soon).

[UpstateJetsGuru]

2 minutes ago, elgoman said:

That record isn't contextualized and sounds convenient when you only factor in 17 games. The more pertinent question is what Fitz's record is against good teams. The answer: bad. The only reason Fitz is at 12-5 over his last 17 games is because we played a slate of bad defenses and teams last year. Thus your whole "12-5" record statistic is meaningless when we talk about playoffs and championship aaspirations. So again, if Fitz cannot improve or otherwise supplement his  deep passing ability, we should be looking for a new starter (and we will soon).

17 games is a pretty hefty sample size and no one plays seventeen bad defenses in a row. 40 to 15 is a very good ratio and Fitz played most of the last six games of the season without the benefit of a running game, so essentially he performed on a one dimensional offense. He also broke the franchise record for TD's. I also recall how some people were predicting the Jets to start 0-4, yet they came out of the gate strong, and all of a sudden their schedule is easy. It is beyond absurd to say that a 4 win team with a new coach and a last minute replacement at QB had an easy schedule, as probably 80 percent of the teams they faced were favored when the schedule was first released.  

[slats]

19 minutes ago, elgoman said:

That record isn't contextualized and sounds convenient when you only factor in 17 games. The more pertinent question is what Fitz's record is against good teams. The answer: bad. The only reason Fitz is at 12-5 over his last 17 games is because we played a slate of bad defenses and teams last year. Thus your whole "12-5" record statistic is meaningless when we talk about playoffs and championship aaspirations. So again, if Fitz cannot improve or otherwise supplement his  deep passing ability, we should be looking for a new starter (and we will soon).

He actually played against an easier schedule the year before with the Texans than he did when playing the easiest schedule in the league last year with the Jets. He's a lucky guy. 

[cant wait]

10 minutes ago, UpstateJetsGuru said:

17 games is a pretty hefty sample size and no one plays seventeen bad defenses in a row. 40 to 15 is a very good ratio and Fitz played most of the last six games of the season without the benefit of a running game, so essentially he performed on a one dimensional offense. He also broke the franchise record for TD's. I also recall how some people were predicting the Jets to start 0-4, yet they came out of the gate strong, and all of a sudden their schedule is easy. It is beyond absurd to say that a 4 win team with a new coach and a last minute replacement at QB had an easy schedule, as probably 80 percent of the teams they faced were favored when the schedule was first released.  

Why are you using 17 games here? did you just want to make sure you were including the 6TD game fitz had against the god awful titans? If we're cherry picking here, it's notable that 10 of the 37 passing TD's fitz had over that stretch came from those two games against arguably the worst team in the NFL

[JiFtheOracle]

1 hour ago, UpstateJetsGuru said:

Believe it or it, Fitz was 3rd best in the NFL over the course of the 2013 and 2014 seasons in completion percentage over 20+ yards...

I could dunk a basketball in High School...

[JiFtheOracle]

43 minutes ago, elgoman said:

If our QB can't hit a deep threat and his short/mid passing isn't good enough, the offense becomes anemic. This is essentially why Bradford fails. He isn't good enough in the short to mid area  to overcome his lack of deep passing ability. So either Fitz offsets his deep passing problems in other ways or we should find a new starter.

Yeah but he didnt hit a deep ball at all last year and the Jets had the best offense in decades.  

Finding a new starter is duh but they dont have that luxury at this point.  

[UpstateJetsGuru]

1 minute ago, cant wait said:

Why are you using 17 games here? did you just want to make sure you were including the 6TD game fitz had against the god awful titans? If we're cherry picking here, it's notable that 10 of the 37 passing TD's fitz had over that stretch came from those two games against arguably the worst team in the NFL

Actually Titans defense was ranked pretty highly last year and all QB's in that division play them twice a year. Do we throw out Brady's and Rogers big TD games against teams when they are running up the score against weak opponents. Of course not, yet you want to get rid of a career game for Fitz. Sure ok. Should we then get rid of the last quarter against the Bills. I kept that in! I think I began with the Titans game because that's when Fitz began to turn it around. Ok. Let's get rid of that game. He still had 34 TD's to 15 INT's  in his previous 16 games. And you know why the Titans became the worst team in football? Largely because they got rid of Fitz for Jake Locker and Zack Mettenberger. They weren't great with Fitz, but they were unquestionably a hell of a lot more competitive!

[UpstateJetsGuru]

12 minutes ago, JiF said:

I could dunk a basketball in High School...

Yeah because 2013-14 were SO long ago! 

[Smashmouth]

What makes a QB have a high completion percentage ? RB's and TE's.... If you look at the history of the game its quite obvious. Look at Drew Brees when he had 4 RB's all receiving threats his % was pushing or eclipsing 70 % he was throwing to his backs to the tune of 150 to 190 completions a year that will raise any QB's percentage. If you go back to the 70's when QB's rarely threw to backs you saw comp percentages in the 50's and 60 was rare. Joe Montana and the WC offense changed the game and the QB position forever.

Today the big thing is the short passing ball control offense of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Which equals high pass percentage .

If you look at Fitz air stats (that's how far the ball travels in the air per reception) Fits has high numbers and is ranked High in the league. Why is that ? Because Fitz had no RB's and no TE's to throw too. When you throw a lot of intermediate routes you will have a lower comp percentage but in reality for what Fitz did last year constantly having to target WR's since he had little other options his numbers were actually pretty good and if you look at the last 6 games his comp percentage went up because he finally had a healthy Bilal Powell to throw to and he went on a streak of 13 TD's and 1 Int before the Buffalo game where he lost Powell and had cement shoes Ridley to throw too as basically his only back. Buffalo blanketed our WR's .

With Matt Forte and Powell in the line-up (both Duel threat RB's) you should see Fitz comp percentage go up and hopefully mistakes go down since he wont have to force the ball as much. This offense should be clicking on all cylinders this year and look more like the team we saw in the 5 games before the buffalo game.

Edit: Fitz comp percentage was 64% over the 5 games mentioned with a healthy Bilial Powell.

[Matt39]

55 minutes ago, elgoman said:

That record isn't contextualized and sounds convenient when you only factor in 17 games. The more pertinent question is what Fitz's record is against good teams. The answer: bad. The only reason Fitz is at 12-5 over his last 17 games is because we played a slate of bad defenses and teams last year. Thus your whole "12-5" record statistic is meaningless when we talk about playoffs and championship aaspirations. So again, if Fitz cannot improve or otherwise supplement his  deep passing ability, we should be looking for a new starter (and we will soon).

You're not saying anything earth shattering here. Fitzpatrick's limitations cause him to struggle against good secondary's that can press. In these games we need the defense and special teams to play extremely well. Last year the specials were abysmal. This  was basically Denver's model/luck last year.

[Smashmouth]

2 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

You're not saying anything earth shattering here. Fitzpatrick's limitations cause him to struggle against good secondary's that can press. In these games we need the defense and special teams to play extremely well. Last year the specials were abysmal. Which was basically Denver's model/luck last year.

Matt its easy to press a one dimensional offense with no check downs.

[Matt39]

Just now, Smashmouth said:

Matt its easy to press a one dimensional offense with no check downs.

moat likely. Should also note the Jets were atrocious on short yardage running plays last year as well. There are a bunch of areas of improvement the team can make that can offset Fitz's inconsistent play.

[Smashmouth]

6 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

moat likely. Should also note the Jets were atrocious on short yardage running plays last year as well. There are a bunch of areas of improvement the team can make that can offset Fitz's inconsistent play.

you can call Fitz play inconsistent but I say the team was inconsistent. The 5 games before Buffalo Fitz was fantastic with the addition of Powell. 13 TD's 1 Int 64 % comp and over 105 rating. Remember this team was in the offense for the first time and they finally started to click. When Fitz lost Powell vs Buffalo they simply locked down our WR's and made it difficult to do anything. They played a good game and had a good scheme we didn't adapt we didn't adjust and we LOST. With Forte and Powell going into this season we should platoon and go with the hot hand therefore keeping the backs fresh and giving Fitz an Option he rarely had last year other than the 5 games mentioned. The numbers say you have to look at this optimistically as a Jet fan .

[Matt39]

8 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

you can call Fitz play inconsistent but I say the team was inconsistent. The 5 games before Buffalo Fitz was fantastic with the addition of Powell. 13 TD's 1 Int 64 % comp and over 100 rating. Remember this team was in the offense for the first time and they finally started to click. When Fitz lost Powell vs Buffalo they simply locked down our WR's and made it difficult to do anything. They played a good game and had a good scheme we didn't adapt we didn't adjust and we LOST. With Forte and Powell going into this season we should platoon and go with the hot hand therefore keeping the backs fresh and giving Fitz an Option he rarely had last year other than the 5 games mentioned. The numbers say you have to look at this optimistically as a Jet fan .

Sure. Considering Fitz overall had a good season last year and we want to nitpick there are certainly a handful of negative non Fitz plays we can point to that directly contributed to 6 losses. 

Sproles 90 yard punt TD

marhsall lateral

marshall alligator arming to end the Eagles game

Yates to Hopkins bomb

Devin Smith kickoff fumble for TD

dozens of punts that went nowhere along with the worst punt coverage in football

If the Jets clean these types of disaster plays up it can offset Fitz's regression.

[nyjunc]

Just now, Matt39 said:

Sure. Considering Fitz overall had a good season last year and we want to nitpick there are certainly a handful of negative non Fitz plays we can point to that directly contributed to 6 losses. 

Sproles 90 yard punt TD

marhsall lateral

marshall alligator arming to end the Eagles game

Yates to Hopkins bomb

Devin Smith kickoff fumble for TD

dozens of punts that went nowhere along with the worst punt coverage in football

If the Jets clean here types of disaster plays up it can offset Fitz's regression.

but in each of those games he made big mistakes to help us lose as well.

[Matt39]

Just now, nyjunc said:

but in each of those games he made big mistakes to help us lose as well.

Yes. I've said that. But I'd rather bet on the Jets cleaning up the special teams rather than Geno suddenly becoming average.

[nyjunc]

Just now, Matt39 said:

Yes. I've said that. But I'd rather bet on the Jets cleaning up the special teams rather than Geno suddenly becoming average.

I think our STs will be much better(they have to be, right?) and I think our D will be better, if Fitz and the O can be close to what they were last year we should be in good shape.

[Smashmouth]

Just now, nyjunc said:

but in each of those games he made big mistakes to help us lose as well.

So did every other QB in the league.

Its a well know fact that northern teams particulary North East teams need a good defense and running game due to weather especially in the playoffs. No QB plays good in bad weather NONE especially in high winds but in the world of the Jets fan playing bad in those games is on the QB.

[Smashmouth]

1 minute ago, nyjunc said:

I think our STs will be much better(they have to be, right?) and I think our D will be better, if Fitz and the O can be close to what they were last year we should be in good shape.

the O should be better, much better

[nyjunc]

Just now, Smashmouth said:

So did every other QB in the league.

Its a well know fact that northern teams particulary North East teams need a good defense and running game due to weather especially in the playoffs. No QB plays good in bad weather NONE especially in high winds but in the world of the Jets fan playing bad in those games is on the QB.

None?  huh? that's odd to say especially since a QB everyone bashes played really well in cold weather games the last couple of times we made the playoffs and plenty of QBs play well in cold weather.

by the way, the Bills QB had no problems w/ the wind in that game in week 17.

[nyjunc]

1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

the O should be better, much better

I want to see how the OL shapes up.  Can Clady stay healthy?  that will be huge.

[slats]

12 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

So did every other QB in the league.

Its a well know fact that northern teams particulary North East teams need a good defense and running game due to weather especially in the playoffs. No QB plays good in bad weather NONE especially in high winds but in the world of the Jets fan playing bad in those games is on the QB.

In the season finale last year, Tyrod Taylor completed 64% of his passes and threw zero interceptions, while at the same time Ryan Fitzpatrick connected on 43% of his passes and threw three interceptions. I know you're in complete denial -even if Fitz, himself, isn't- but this goes directly to (the lack of) arm strength. 

[Smashmouth]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

In the season finale last year, Tyrod Taylor completed 64% of his passes and threw zero interceptions, while at the same time Ryan Fitzpatrick connected on 43% of his passes and threw three interceptions. I know you're in complete denial -even if Fitz, himself, isn't- but this goes directly to (the lack of) arm strength. 

ok so we can look at one game that makes total sense. Buffalo locked down our WR's wind or no wind Fitz didn't have many options in that game along with no running game and no check downs .