PSA for Revisionists, Haters, and My Quite fan boys:

[Snell41]

The point is this is the way QBs are developed, not by sitting them for 3 years as they did in the past.

I think your terminology is wrong because the game has changed and the dollars dictated it. Top drafted QB’s are not developed anymore, they’re evaluated, and that evaluation is 2-3 years max sink or swim. The league can’t afford to develop QB’s drafted in the first round, they’re too expensive. Zach’s evaluation after his first year proves he should have been drafted much later and developed on the bench.



Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Hal N of Provo]

28 minutes ago, freestater said:

Billions. 

Seriously though, the case can be made to feel more confident because of his late season improvement. The "magic" from his preseason games went away pretty quick after he played against real defenses using real schemes to take advantage of real young rookies. The good news is that his decision making process got better last quarter of the season. 

That’s how I saw it too.  Preseason wasn’t real but showed he was ready to learn the next level.  Packers players said this would happen for him after their minicamp - Jets coaches probably knew too.
 

(Anonymously Packers players said something like Zach was in for a rough learning curve but that he would be special.)
 

Over this next season I want to see him continue to build on it.     

 

[ZachEY]

This thread is actually a stark reminder of the Jets historic refusal to bring in a QB capable of competing with a highly drafted rookie.

 

[Jet Nut]

6 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Nobody  is advocating that Zach should have sat for 3 years.   It was clear as day that both Zach and Fields weren't ready to start at the begining of last season.  It was clear as day that Burrow(the year before) and Mac were.  

Nobody was advocating for Zach to sit for the entire year or for Fields to sit for the entire year.  Fields wasn't handed the starting job.  Zach was.  

This started as an argument that ZW wouldn't have been handed the job, a viable alternative should have been brought in to compete, one of the posters has been a strong advocate of not handing over the starting job to him.  One said he shouldnt have gotten the job because he played for BYU, lol.  

What exactly made it clear that Zach shouldnt have started, he had as good a preseason as anyone, maybe better than all, including Lawrence

[Hal N of Provo]

4 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

 

I think your terminology is wrong because the game has changed and the dollars dictated it. Top drafted QB’s are not developed anymore, they’re evaluated, and that evaluation is 2-3 years max sink or swim. The league can’t afford to develop QB’s drafted in the first round, they’re too expensive. Zach’s evaluation after his first year proves he should have been drafted much later and developed on the bench.



Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

The TB game was amazing considering who was left at that point.  Zach was a different player than started the season.  I think that was the goal for this last season.
 

[Irish Jet]

He didn't play a single starting defence in the preseason. Was brutally exposed the following weeks.

People can put their fingers in their ears and ignore the red flags all the want, the reality is Zach needs an absolutely transformative offseason if he's to be a viable NFL QB. He was anything but last season. 

[Jet Nut]

32 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

 

I think your terminology is wrong because the game has changed and the dollars dictated it. Top drafted QB’s are not developed anymore, they’re evaluated, and that evaluation is 2-3 years max sink or swim. The league can’t afford to develop QB’s drafted in the first round, they’re too expensive. Zach’s evaluation after his first year proves he should have been drafted much later and developed on the bench.



Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Actually that doesnt pertain to the game today.  It changed for a while because high draft pick QBs were getting monster contracts and teams couldn't afford a 70M dollar rookie deal and a vet.  That went away with the slotted deals.  Wilson or Lawrence dont make more than other positions drafted 1 or 2.

A lot of it is due to the college game now being a passing game like the NFL and college kids playing NFL offense.  Wilsons BYU offense was similar to the Jets offense, Clemson played a pro style offense.  QBs in the past played in a run first college game

Nothing about ZW game can be prove that his development would be different long term if he sat.  As I said, bet none is saying this about Lawrence and he basically had the same year as Wilson, just with more INTs, more TOs and similar QB rating.

[Jet Nut]

19 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

He didn't play a single starting defence in the preseason. Was brutally exposed the following weeks.

People can put their fingers in their ears and ignore the red flags all the want, the reality is Zach needs an absolutely transformative offseason if he's to be a viable NFL QB. He was anything but last season. 

Sounds good but is wrong.  He played the preseason as the starter, was on the field early when starters were on the field.  Lawrence and Fields came off the bench when the starting D was off the field.  Their were fewer preseason games due to COVID-19, starting defensive players were on the field early.  The exposing they all faced was the starting schemes and game planning was completely different in the regular season

He proved he was after he returned from the knee injury, learned to protect the ball giving him and the team more of a chance

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

And you’re calling for the Jets to do things differently than the way teams are run in 2020.  

How some teams are run (as noted above).

Yes.

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

And just because ZW, TL, JF etc struggled in year one that doesn’t mean it hurt their development or doesn’t shorten the time to develop.  There’s nothing to agree or disagree with.  There’s no proof either way

Yes, it's an opinion, there is no proof because we cannot know what would have happened in an alternate universe.

We only know what did happen.  And what did happen was Zach Wilson was the worst QB in the NFL.

Personally, I would have handled things differently, but I respect some folks think we did everything exactly right.

[Jet Nut]

8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

How some teams are run (as noted above).

Yes.

Yes, it's an opinion, there is no proof because we cannot know what would have happened in an alternate universe.

We only know what did happen.  And what did happen was Zach Wilson was the worst QB in the NFL.

Personally, I would have handled things differently, but I respect some folks think we did everything exactly right.

Except he actually wasnt the worst but thats a different story line sold.  

And the point is his long term development.  Teams that start QBs early believe it will lead to quicker learning period.  Most believe thats the best way to handle QBs.  But no one is starting the kids because they believe that the rookie is the best way to win games his first year IMO.  Its to set things up down the road as quick as possible to take advantage of the rookie deal.

[More Cowbell]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

And I’ll repeat again.  No one who drafts a QB top 5 brings in competition and then whoever plays best wins.  Not TL not Burrow, not ZW etc

Trey Lance says hello. 

[Warfish]

30 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Except he actually wasnt the worst but thats a different story line sold.  

Know what, never mind, not going down this rabbit hole today. 

The stats and metrics, the objective facts, are available for anyone to look it.  There is nothing on this point to debate.

Quote

And the point is his long term development.

See, I think the point is winning games.  I think the point should always be about winning games.  Not theoretically if everything goes right three years from now maybe, but now.

I think most of the "planning for three years from now" talk is just making excuses for why we suck now.

Quote

 Teams that start QBs early believe it will lead to quicker learning period.  Most believe thats the best way to handle QBs.

It is something teams tend to do, I agree.  I don't agree it's the best way to manage young QB's or teams in general.

Quote

 But no one is starting the kids because they believe that the rookie is the best way to win games his first year IMO.

Obviously.

Quote

 Its to set things up down the road as quick as possible to take advantage of the rookie deal.

Down the road, always down the road.....and when we get down the road, it's always down the road some more.  I get it.

[Jet Nut]

34 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Know what, never mind, not going down this rabbit hole today. 

The stats and metrics, the objective facts, are available for anyone to look it.  There is nothing on this point to debate.

See, I think the point is winning games.  I think the point should always be about winning games.  Not theoretically if everything goes right three years from now maybe, but now.

I think most of the "planning for three years from now" talk is just making excuses for why we suck now.

It is something teams tend to do, I agree.  I don't agree it's the best way to manage young QB's or teams in general.

Obviously.

Down the road, always down the road.....and when we get down the road, it's always down the road some more.  I get it.

And stats say that Wilson was ahead of Fields and others.  

The point last year wasn’t to win games.  You want to win but it’s not as important on a team made up of that many rookies and 2nd year types as development into serviceable starters or backup depth.  It’s all about having those groups set up, for everyone to get to the next level and the. Building for wins.  That’s a rebuild.  It’s not always down the road it’s a reality check when rebuilding this way, after a complete blowup 

[Jet Nut]

49 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Trey Lance says hello. 

So does Garoppollo.

Lance is a longer term project, a QB who played one game his last college season and one in which he totally sucked.  Everything about Lance is a projection and he played behind anQB who two years ago started a SB game and was winning with 4 or so minutes lot go.  Not even close to comparable to TL, ZW or JF

[Biggs]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

This started as an argument that ZW wouldn't have been handed the job, a viable alternative should have been brought in to compete, one of the posters has been a strong advocate of not handing over the starting job to him.  One said he shouldnt have gotten the job because he played for BYU, lol.  

What exactly made it clear that Zach shouldnt have started, he had as good a preseason as anyone, maybe better than all, including Lawrence

I had no problem with handing Zach the starting job.  I had a problem letting him keep it when it was clear he wasn't up to it yet.  It was clearly a break for both the team and Zach's development when he was injured enough to sit on the bench.   Zach showed everyone that he wasn't ready to start in the NFL by his play.  It's not even debatable.  He was overmatched and sucked.  Fields and Lawrence were both awful and they were still slightly better than Zach statistically. 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

7 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Lawrence dominated college football at the highest levels for three seasons and was the unquestioned leader of a championship program. Zach Wilson couldn’t earn the captaincy on a team that got throttled by Coastal Carolina in the Jimmy Jack Bowl. 

And it showed. Lawrence used that major college success and the love of his college teammates to tear up the NFL as a rookie, outplaying Wilson by a long shot.  Oh. Wait.  Scratch that.  And Fields too.  That Big 10 experience and big game experience at OSU made him NFL ready and he showed that as compared to Wilson. Ooops.  Forget that as well.  Josh Allen was similarly terrible coming out Wyoming where he struggled against every single major college opponent.  He never developed and grew into an NFL starter.  Ummm.  Roll that back too please.  

[Hal N of Provo]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:Yes, it's an opinion, there is no proof because we cannot know what would have happened in an alternate universe.

We only know what did happen.  And what did happen was Zach Wilson was the worst QB in the NFL.

Personally, I would have handled things differently, but I respect some folks think we did everything exactly right.

 

[More Cowbell]

58 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

So does Garoppollo.

Lance is a longer term project, a QB who played one game his last college season and one in which he totally sucked.  Everything about Lance is a projection and he played behind anQB who two years ago started a SB game and was winning with 4 or so minutes lot go.  Not even close to comparable to TL, ZW or JF

I never said it was and this isn't even what is being discussed here.

I'm just responding to your claim about top 5 pick QB's don't have to compete for the starting job. Lance was picked 3rd and the 9ers even traded up to get him. If you are going to bring up specifics for each QB's situation, there are no comparisons to made.

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

The point last year wasn’t to win games.

Apparently it hasn't been the point for well over a decade now.

 

[Jet Nut]

16 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Apparently it hasn't been the point for well over a decade now.

 

Sure seems that way.

Unfortunately why we’re here with a roster that needed to be gutted

[maury77]

9 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

And it showed. Lawrence used that major college success and the love of his college teammates to tear up the NFL as a rookie, outplaying Wilson by a long shot.  Oh. Wait.  Scratch that.  And Fields too.  That Big 10 experience and big game experience at OSU made him NFL ready and he showed that as compared to Wilson. Ooops.  Forget that as well.  Josh Allen was similarly terrible coming out Wyoming where he struggled against every single major college opponent.  He never developed and grew into an NFL starter.  Ummm.  Roll that back too please.  

Lawrence and Fields were not good, but both were better than Wilson. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-new-york-jets-2022-offseason-blueprint-response-to-poor-zach-wilson-rookie-year

"Earlier this week, I did an in-depth review of Trevor Lawrence‘s and Justin Fields’ rookie season. And despite their low overall grades for the season, both 2021 first-rounders had plenty of positives to speak of — they both showed growth as the season progressed and should be prime breakout candidates for 2022. 

Wilson is not in that same boat.

The Jets quarterback finished his first year in the NFL ranks with a 54.8 passing grade — the lowest among rookies and third-lowest in the NFL ahead of only Sam Darnold and Ben Roethlisberger. He finished with a negatively graded throw rate above 20%, joining Brian Hoyer in 2013 and Terrelle Pryor in 2014 as the only quarterbacks to do so in the last decade. And the young passer didn’t offset that with a high rate of positives, either, as his 2.5% big-time throw rate ranked last among rookies and 28th in the NFL. 

The arm talent didn’t leave him, the easy situation did. 

 

While the BYU product made some difficult throws from different arm angles and out of the structure of the offense, the result was bad more often than it was good. He ended the year with a 34.5 passing grade on those dropbacks overall to pair with an 18th-ranked big-time throw rate. 

Wilson struggled with sloppy footwork and leaned on his arm talent too much in college, which has remained in the NFL. His upper and lower body doesn't often work in unison. Wilson’s core and throwing hip are not being used as they should, and he’s not setting the “hallway,” as legendary biomechanics expert Tom House would say.

All of this is severely impacting his accuracy. Wilson’s accuracy rate over expectation stood at -14.2% for the 2021 season — the worst in the NFL by over four percentage points.

 

As recently noted by PFF lead draft analyst Mike Renner, Wilson lacked confidence in the rhythm of the offense, and that’s a massive concern when projecting his future growth. The Jets passer turned in a 1.8% big-time throw rate when in rhythm this past season, the lowest in the NFL in 2021 and the second-lowest since PFF started tracking that data in 2017.

Wilson simply made things harder than they needed to be, and nowhere was this more apparent than in his pocket presence. He struggled to see things develop and held onto the ball far too long, with his 3.05-second average time to throw finishing among the five slowest marks in the league.

Despite not starting a full season, he led the NFL in QB-fault sacks with 17. Wilson also converted 26.3% of his pressures into a sack, the third-worst rate in the NFL.

Take this first-and-10 against Philadelphia, where he saw and passed up multiple open receivers and instead took a sack.

 

This isn’t writing Wilson off by any means. Rather, it is to say he has so much more to work on than the other members of his class, specifically Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. He still has the same arm talent that made him the No. 2 overall pick, and he's not lost the athletic ability that helped him to an 86.8 rushing grade in college. He also dealt with a pass-blocking unit that ranked 21st league-wide in PFF grade and a receiving room that ranked 29th. Then, the entire defensive side of the ball was a struggle, as they finished 31st in team defense grade."

https://heavy.com/sports/new-york-jets/wilson-jets-losses-cut/

 

"According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric, Wilson compared favorably to the likes of Blake Bortles, Dwayne Haskins, DeShone Kizer, and Geno Smith.

That data suggests that it is “unusual” for a quarterback to start there as a rookie and develop into an above-average starter later in their career.

In other words, Spratt is suggesting that the Jets simply bite the bullet and admit to their mistake this offseason and that might “shorten their rebuild.”

Look, Wilson can theoretically turn it around and you can't declare him a bust after one season. History, however, seems to indicate that there is a very strong likelihood he's not going to work out. 

[Hal N of Provo]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Lawrence and Fields were not good, but both were better than Wilson. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-new-york-jets-2022-offseason-blueprint-response-to-poor-zach-wilson-rookie-year

"Earlier this week, I did an in-depth review of Trevor Lawrence‘s and Justin Fields’ rookie season. And despite their low overall grades for the season, both 2021 first-rounders had plenty of positives to speak of — they both showed growth as the season progressed and should be prime breakout candidates for 2022. 

Wilson is not in that same boat.

The Jets quarterback finished his first year in the NFL ranks with a 54.8 passing grade — the lowest among rookies and third-lowest in the NFL ahead of only Sam Darnold and Ben Roethlisberger. He finished with a negatively graded throw rate above 20%, joining Brian Hoyer in 2013 and Terrelle Pryor in 2014 as the only quarterbacks to do so in the last decade. And the young passer didn’t offset that with a high rate of positives, either, as his 2.5% big-time throw rate ranked last among rookies and 28th in the NFL. 

The arm talent didn’t leave him, the easy situation did. 

 

While the BYU product made some difficult throws from different arm angles and out of the structure of the offense, the result was bad more often than it was good. He ended the year with a 34.5 passing grade on those dropbacks overall to pair with an 18th-ranked big-time throw rate. 

Wilson struggled with sloppy footwork and leaned on his arm talent too much in college, which has remained in the NFL. His upper and lower body doesn't often work in unison. Wilson’s core and throwing hip are not being used as they should, and he’s not setting the “hallway,” as legendary biomechanics expert Tom House would say.

All of this is severely impacting his accuracy. Wilson’s accuracy rate over expectation stood at -14.2% for the 2021 season — the worst in the NFL by over four percentage points.

 

As recently noted by PFF lead draft analyst Mike Renner, Wilson lacked confidence in the rhythm of the offense, and that’s a massive concern when projecting his future growth. The Jets passer turned in a 1.8% big-time throw rate when in rhythm this past season, the lowest in the NFL in 2021 and the second-lowest since PFF started tracking that data in 2017.

Wilson simply made things harder than they needed to be, and nowhere was this more apparent than in his pocket presence. He struggled to see things develop and held onto the ball far too long, with his 3.05-second average time to throw finishing among the five slowest marks in the league.

Despite not starting a full season, he led the NFL in QB-fault sacks with 17. Wilson also converted 26.3% of his pressures into a sack, the third-worst rate in the NFL.

Take this first-and-10 against Philadelphia, where he saw and passed up multiple open receivers and instead took a sack.

 

This isn’t writing Wilson off by any means. Rather, it is to say he has so much more to work on than the other members of his class, specifically Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. He still has the same arm talent that made him the No. 2 overall pick, and he's not lost the athletic ability that helped him to an 86.8 rushing grade in college. He also dealt with a pass-blocking unit that ranked 21st league-wide in PFF grade and a receiving room that ranked 29th. Then, the entire defensive side of the ball was a struggle, as they finished 31st in team defense grade."

https://heavy.com/sports/new-york-jets/wilson-jets-losses-cut/

 

"According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric, Wilson compared favorably to the likes of Blake Bortles, Dwayne Haskins, DeShone Kizer, and Geno Smith.

That data suggests that it is “unusual” for a quarterback to start there as a rookie and develop into an above-average starter later in their career.

In other words, Spratt is suggesting that the Jets simply bite the bullet and admit to their mistake this offseason and that might “shorten their rebuild.”

Look, Wilson can theoretically turn it around and you can't declare him a bust after one season. History, however, seems to indicate that there is a very strong likelihood he's not going to work out. 

I’m right and they are wrong. 
 

Hope this clears things up and makes you feel good going into next season!  
 

Go Jets.  
 

(And for real, they don’t seem great at what they do.  I bet their data and grades are weakly correlated with internal NFL grading.   Up arrow for a good find  and post.) 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Lawrence and Fields were not good, but both were better than Wilson. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-new-york-jets-2022-offseason-blueprint-response-to-poor-zach-wilson-rookie-year

"Earlier this week, I did an in-depth review of Trevor Lawrence‘s and Justin Fields’ rookie season. And despite their low overall grades for the season, both 2021 first-rounders had plenty of positives to speak of — they both showed growth as the season progressed and should be prime breakout candidates for 2022. 

Wilson is not in that same boat.

The Jets quarterback finished his first year in the NFL ranks with a 54.8 passing grade — the lowest among rookies and third-lowest in the NFL ahead of only Sam Darnold and Ben Roethlisberger. He finished with a negatively graded throw rate above 20%, joining Brian Hoyer in 2013 and Terrelle Pryor in 2014 as the only quarterbacks to do so in the last decade. And the young passer didn’t offset that with a high rate of positives, either, as his 2.5% big-time throw rate ranked last among rookies and 28th in the NFL. 

The arm talent didn’t leave him, the easy situation did. 

 

While the BYU product made some difficult throws from different arm angles and out of the structure of the offense, the result was bad more often than it was good. He ended the year with a 34.5 passing grade on those dropbacks overall to pair with an 18th-ranked big-time throw rate. 

Wilson struggled with sloppy footwork and leaned on his arm talent too much in college, which has remained in the NFL. His upper and lower body doesn't often work in unison. Wilson’s core and throwing hip are not being used as they should, and he’s not setting the “hallway,” as legendary biomechanics expert Tom House would say.

All of this is severely impacting his accuracy. Wilson’s accuracy rate over expectation stood at -14.2% for the 2021 season — the worst in the NFL by over four percentage points.

 

As recently noted by PFF lead draft analyst Mike Renner, Wilson lacked confidence in the rhythm of the offense, and that’s a massive concern when projecting his future growth. The Jets passer turned in a 1.8% big-time throw rate when in rhythm this past season, the lowest in the NFL in 2021 and the second-lowest since PFF started tracking that data in 2017.

Wilson simply made things harder than they needed to be, and nowhere was this more apparent than in his pocket presence. He struggled to see things develop and held onto the ball far too long, with his 3.05-second average time to throw finishing among the five slowest marks in the league.

Despite not starting a full season, he led the NFL in QB-fault sacks with 17. Wilson also converted 26.3% of his pressures into a sack, the third-worst rate in the NFL.

Take this first-and-10 against Philadelphia, where he saw and passed up multiple open receivers and instead took a sack.

 

This isn’t writing Wilson off by any means. Rather, it is to say he has so much more to work on than the other members of his class, specifically Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. He still has the same arm talent that made him the No. 2 overall pick, and he's not lost the athletic ability that helped him to an 86.8 rushing grade in college. He also dealt with a pass-blocking unit that ranked 21st league-wide in PFF grade and a receiving room that ranked 29th. Then, the entire defensive side of the ball was a struggle, as they finished 31st in team defense grade."

https://heavy.com/sports/new-york-jets/wilson-jets-losses-cut/

 

"According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric, Wilson compared favorably to the likes of Blake Bortles, Dwayne Haskins, DeShone Kizer, and Geno Smith.

That data suggests that it is “unusual” for a quarterback to start there as a rookie and develop into an above-average starter later in their career.

In other words, Spratt is suggesting that the Jets simply bite the bullet and admit to their mistake this offseason and that might “shorten their rebuild.”

Look, Wilson can theoretically turn it around and you can't declare him a bust after one season. History, however, seems to indicate that there is a very strong likelihood he's not going to work out. 

All three struggled equally, which is not surprising considering they were on bad teams.  Your analysis contains too much analytics, many of which are far too subjective for a sport such as football where there are numerous variables. Plus, it's a team sport.  QB stats can be influenced by so many other factors besides the QB - drops, route running, the OL.  These things really can't be accurately measured.  I don't see how anyone can argue that Lawrence or Fields played better than Wilson.  Next year will be telling for all three. I would not be surprised if all or most ended up as better QBs than Mac Jones.  

[Hal N of Provo]

2 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

All three struggled equally, which is not surprising considering they were on bad teams.  Your analysis contains too much analytics, many of which are far too subjective for a sport such as football where there are numerous variables. Plus, it's a team sport.  QB stats can be influenced by so many other factors besides the QB - drops, route running, the OL.  These things really can't be accurately measured.  I don't see how anyone can argue that Lawrence or Fields played better than Wilson.  Next year will be telling for all three. I would not be surprised if all or most ended up as better QBs than Mac Jones.  

I liked the rules in low level chemistry classes about not being allowed to have more decimal places than you can actually measure.  
 

These guys pretend to rate at a fine detail level but they are probably +/- 15 points - enough to ruin the whole system.