Football Outsiders on Kayvon Thibodeaux

[IndianaJet]

On 3/30/2022 at 3:29 PM, maury77 said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/draft-film-room/2022/kayvon-thibodeauxs-drop-draft-boards-makes-no-sense

 

I can't copy and paste because the article has videos, but it is a good report with video evidence. I think Thibodeaux is becoming a victim of prospect fartigue at this point. He's not Chase Young, Bosa, etc., but the tools are there and while his sack numbers were mediocre, his pass rush win % was very high and that tends to translate. I hope the Jets get lucky and draft him at 4. 

I would not be shocked at all if KT was the pick at #4.

Recall, when the Jets signed Lawson, they talked ALOT about his pass rush win % rather than his actual sack numbers.

JD and Saleh will project those numbers to a DL that has Lawson and Williams on it and expect much better production.

[kdels62]

9 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

I would not be shocked at all if KT was the pick at #4.

Recall, when the Jets signed Lawson, they talked ALOT about his pass rush win % rather than his actual sack numbers.

JD and Saleh will project those numbers to a DL that has Lawson and Williams on it and expect much better production.

Hutchinson, KT, Karlaftis, Ojabo and Nik Bonitto are the top pass rush win % guys in the draft. They’re pretty clear of everyone else. 

[Doggin94it]

3 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Thibodeaux went from overrated to underrated almost overnight.

I think he's the best prospect who'll realistically be there at #4 by some way. Even amid all the concerns about his effort and taking plays off his pass rush win rate was consistently elite. He's tested superbly as an athlete and his play was great. The concerns are somewhat legitimate but he seems a good guy and it's not like he's acted unprofessionally - people may be reading too much into things he's said.

I'd take him at 4 in a heartbeat. 

Yep. 

[derp]

13 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Hutchinson, KT, Karlaftis, Ojabo and Nik Bonitto are the top pass rush win % guys in the draft. They’re pretty clear of everyone else. 

Ebiketie is up there too, right? Looks like Enagbare as well and based on other stats I’d guess Myjai Sanders and Cameron Thomas are up there too.

Bonitto would’ve been perfect for the role they signed Martin for. Feel like he’s going to be a steal.

[kdels62]

40 minutes ago, derp said:

Ebiketie is up there too, right? Looks like Enagbare as well and based on other stats I’d guess Myjai Sanders and Cameron Thomas are up there too.

Bonitto would’ve been perfect for the role they signed Martin for. Feel like he’s going to be a steal.

Correct. In actual order and not just off memory it’s:

Bonitto: 29%
Enagbare: 25.9%
Hutch: 25%
Karlaftis: 23.6%
KT: 23.2%
Ebiketie: 22.9%
Cam Thomas: 21.1%
Sanders: 20.2%
Tyreke Smith: 20.2%
Drake Jackson: 19.9%
Mafe: 19.2%
Ojabo: 19%
Sam Williams: 18.1%
Jermaine Johnson: 14.1%
Travon Walker: 10.1%

All stats are from PFF.
 

[derp]

5 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Correct. In actual order and not just off memory it’s:

Bonitto: 29%
Enagbare: 25.9%
Hutch: 25%
Karlaftis: 23.6%
KT: 23.2%
Ebiketie: 22.9%
Cam Thomas: 21.1%
Sanders: 20.2%
Tyreke Smith: 20.2%
Drake Jackson: 19.9%
Mafe: 19.2%
Ojabo: 19%
Sam Williams: 18.1%
Jermaine Johnson: 14.1%
Travon Walker: 10.1%

All stats are from PFF.


 

 

It’s something I want addressed early and often but they could eat on day two if they chose to. 

[maury77]

12 hours ago, BurntDice said:

He didn’t mean Beasley was his comp. Just that teams viewed them in the same prospect tier coming out aka top 10, but not top 5. 
 

Brugler  has been spot on with this draft all year. He was the first to have hutch as edge 1, first to have Ickey top 5, first to have walker as top 10 now those are all the consensus pretty much  

I can argue that outside of maybe Gardner and Neal, there isn’t a “top 5” caliber pick in this draft. I wouldn’t take Hutchinson over either Bosa, Chase, Garrett, Von, or even Chubb if I’m being honest.

[HighPitch]

On 3/30/2022 at 3:56 PM, Rhg1084 said:

Agreed.. you got guys putting Jermaine Johnson or Walker above him is absurd at this point .

jj has double the sacks and a great motor and a good attitude so idk

[JohnnyLV]

On 3/30/2022 at 1:29 PM, maury77 said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/draft-film-room/2022/kayvon-thibodeauxs-drop-draft-boards-makes-no-sense

 

I can't copy and paste because the article has videos, but it is a good report with video evidence. I think Thibodeaux is becoming a victim of prospect fartigue at this point. He's not Chase Young, Bosa, etc., but the tools are there and while his sack numbers were mediocre, his pass rush win % was very high and that tends to translate. I hope the Jets get lucky and draft him at 4. 

Bryce Huff is Top 10 in the NFL in PBWR. We should not forget him.

[kdels62]

4 hours ago, derp said:

It’s something I want addressed early and often but they could eat on day two if they chose to. 

So I figured I'd look back at the pass rush win rates of notable players (in their final seasons) over the past few years. 

Chase Young: 27.2%,                                 Josh Uche: 27%,

Kwity Paye: 26.5% (in 4 games),           Casey Toohill: 24.7% (Redshirt Senior),

Azeez Ojulari: 24.6%,                                  Trey Hendrickson: 24.5%,

Josh Allen: 23.4%,                                       Julian Okwara: 23%,

Curtis Weaver: 22.9%,                                Malcom Koonce: 21.9%,

Alex Highsmith:  21.7%,                             Anfernee Jennings: 20.7%,

Jaelan Phillips: 20.4%,                               TJ Watt: 20%, 

Nick Bosa: 20%,                                            Terrell Lewis: 19.8%, 

Darrell Taylor: 19%,                                      Yetur Gross Matos: 18.9%, 

Jason Oweh: 18.4% (With 0 sacks),    Carl Lawson: 18.4%, 

Maxx Crosby: 18.4%,                                  Jonathon Greenard: 17.5%, 

Greg Rousseau: 17.6%,                              Haason Reddick: 17.3%, 

Clelin Ferrell: 17.2%,                                     AJ Epenesa: 17%,

Payton Turner: 16.9%,                                Brian Burns: 16.6%,

Arden Key: 16.4%,                                         Jachai Polite: 16.4%, 

LJ Collier: 16.4%,                                           Myles Garrett: 16.2%, 

Sam Hubbard: 16.2%,                                 Joe Tryon: 15.9%

Boogie Bashem: 15.4%,                             Patrick Jones 14.9% 

Kenny Willekes: 14.6%,                                Ben Banogu: 14%,                                         

Dayo Odeyingbo: 13.9%                              Rashon Gary: 13.8%, 

K'lavon Chaisson: 13.1%,                           Harold Landry: 12.4% (senior year but 20.2% Junion year) which is interesting, 

Solomon Thomas: 10.5%

 

[BurntDice]

7 hours ago, maury77 said:

I can argue that outside of maybe Gardner and Neal, there isn’t a “top 5” caliber pick in this draft. I wouldn’t take Hutchinson over either Bosa, Chase, Garrett, Von, or even Chubb if I’m being honest.

I mean yea that’s pretty obvious that those guys are better prospects than hutch, but you can only work with what you’ve got 

[Dwight Englewood]

On 3/30/2022 at 9:03 PM, Rhg1084 said:

Also, for everyone saying “he’s selfish, he’s only interested in building his brand” …. In NYC there’s only one way for an athlete to build a “brand”. And that’s to be an elite player. So if he wants to build his brand here I’m all for it 

I know. I love the media ripping Thibs “oh he’s sounding too confident in interviews”

 

 

like what is he supposed to say