Football Outsiders on Kayvon Thibodeaux

[maury77]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/draft-film-room/2022/kayvon-thibodeauxs-drop-draft-boards-makes-no-sense

 

I can't copy and paste because the article has videos, but it is a good report with video evidence. I think Thibodeaux is becoming a victim of prospect fartigue at this point. He's not Chase Young, Bosa, etc., but the tools are there and while his sack numbers were mediocre, his pass rush win % was very high and that tends to translate. I hope the Jets get lucky and draft him at 4. 

[Integrity28]

I think the teams with late picks like to amplify anything negative in hopes that it will help a great prospect slip in the draft. I am not saying that that’s exactly what’s happening here, but it could be

[kdels62]

KT and Karlaftis have fallen for entirely artificial reasons. 

[Rhg1084]

Agreed.. you got guys putting Jermaine Johnson or Walker above him is absurd at this point .

[Guest Yankees Pride]

At some point Jets fans have to feel confident this management team will get it right. If Thibs is the choice, the Jets know he should be. 

[HawkeyeJet]

KT seems like the kind of player to me that in 6 years people look back and wonder how he wasn’t picked 1 or 2.  

The Jets are usually on the ass end of that scenario.  Maybe our fortunes could change and be the beneficiary for a change.

[Rhg1084]

Also, for everyone saying “he’s selfish, he’s only interested in building his brand” …. In NYC there’s only one way for an athlete to build a “brand”. And that’s to be an elite player. So if he wants to build his brand here I’m all for it 

[Guest Yankees Pride]

Wonder if anyone saw Thibs interview with CBS Sports??  Ray Lewis was part of the cast and Thibs was speaking glowingly about Lewis and how he patterns his on field preparation and game after Lewis. Man, what a bs artist this guy has to be if that weren’t the truth. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

23 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

KT and Karlaftis have fallen for entirely artificial reasons. 

Every year guys don’t get picked on and others get overly criticized. Among the national media side, Kyle Hamilton and Evan Neal have very few criticisms and Kayvon because he rubs people the wrong way is getting overcorrected. 

Karlaftis if those numbers are legit, is a top ten pick. He might be a guy that is undervalued or picks up steam closer to the draft as teams digest more tape and have prospect visits. 

[sec101row23]

27 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

KT and Karlaftis have fallen for entirely artificial reasons. 

Karlaftis is the forgotten man.   His testing has been great and his tape is sold.  I think he’ll be bargain come draft night.  

[maury77]

46 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Also, for everyone saying “he’s selfish, he’s only interested in building his brand” …. In NYC there’s only one way for an athlete to build a “brand”. And that’s to be an elite player. So if he wants to build his brand here I’m all for it 

Honestly? Every guy in this draft is interested in "building his brand", this is the age of Instagram and social media. Just because KT had the audacity to articulate his interest in an interview does not mena he should be punished for it. 

[maury77]

Football outsiders has a couple of good prospect articles with videos, I'll post one every couple of days so we can discuss same (I know, I can't help myself). 

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

Karlaftis is the forgotten man.   His testing has been great and his tape is sold.  I think he’ll be bargain come draft night.  

Didn't Karlaftis skip a lot of the drills at the Combine, similar to Kayvon?  I know he skipped the 40 which was a little concerning.  Not concerning because a DE's 40 time is important but I like to get those 10-yard splits.

My biggest concern about Karlaftis is that he's almost tapped out and is much closer to his ceiling than other guys who haven't worked as hard as George has, who haven't had the type of strict diet he's followed, who didn't choose their campus apartment locations so that they could be right near the gym, etc.  I just feel like NFL coaches and trainers will be able to help Karlaftis improve but nowhere near as much as they'll be able to help other guys who haven't yet taken a more professional approach to football the way Karlaftis has.

EDIT:  I do recognize that my criticism can actually be looked at as a strength for Karlaftis.  I'm essentially saying this guy is a smart, hardworking athlete who has shown commitment to football and wanting to be the best he can be.  Those are great attributes.  My point is simply that he's probably closer to his ceiling than many other guys in this class.

 

 

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

My biggest concern about Karlaftis is that he's almost tapped out and is much closer to his ceiling than other guys who haven't worked as hard as George has, who haven't had the type of strict diet he's followed, who didn't choose their campus apartment locations so that they could be right near the gym, etc.  I just feel like NFL coaches and trainers will be able to help Karlaftis improve but nowhere near as much as they'll be able to help other guys who haven't yet taken a more professional approach to football the way Karlaftis has.

This is a strange take.  lol  You dont like the guy because he's insanely dedicated to getting better?  He's 20 years old.  I doubt he's tapped out.  I'm actually more interested in him now that you share this. lol

 

[kdels62]

12 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Didn't Karlaftis skip a lot of the drills at the Combine, similar to Kayvon?  I know he skipped the 40 which was a little concerning.  Not concerning because a DE's 40 time is important but I like to get those 10-yard splits.

My biggest concern about Karlaftis is that he's almost tapped out and is much closer to his ceiling than other guys who haven't worked as hard as George has, who haven't had the type of strict diet he's followed, who didn't choose their campus apartment locations so that they could be right near the gym, etc.  I just feel like NFL coaches and trainers will be able to help Karlaftis improve but nowhere near as much as they'll be able to help other guys who haven't yet taken a more professional approach to football the way Karlaftis has.

 

 

He’s 2 years younger than JJ so he might actually get faster and stronger. Also he ran a sub 4.8 40 and possibly a sub 7 three cone. His profile is borderline elite and he had an elite win rate in pass rush. He’s still developing physically and technically.

[jetstream23]

Just now, JiFapono said:

This is a strange take.  lol  You dont like the guy because he's insanely dedicated to getting better?  He's 20 years old.  I doubt he's tapped out.  I'm actually more interested in him now that you share this. lol

 

Ha!  I edited my post as you were typing this.  I recognize the irony.

[jetstream23]

Just now, kdels62 said:

He’s 2 years younger than JJ so he might actually get fast and stronger. Also he ran a sub 4.8 40 and possibly a sub 7 three cone. His profile is borderline elite and he had an elite win rate in pass rush. He’s still developing physically and technically.

That's helpful.  Wasn't aware of that.

Why do we think he's falling?  If anything I'd expect him to move up a bit now that Ojabo is likely out of the picture in the 1st round with the injury.

[section314]

2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I think the teams with late picks like to amplify anything negative in hopes that it will help a great prospect slip in the draft. I am not saying that that’s exactly what’s happening here, but it could be

Damn, wish they had done that to Gholston, Pryor, Wilson.....you get my drift.?

[derp]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

That's helpful.  Wasn't aware of that.

Why do we think he's falling?  If anything I'd expect him to move up a bit now that Ojabo is likely out of the picture in the 1st round with the injury.

I don’t think Karlaftis is falling as much as he was in the top 10 preseason with expectations he’d put up a double digit sack year, mock draft machines left him up there for a while, and Jets fans kept talking about him at 4 when when everyone else had moved him to the teens.

[TuscanyTile2]

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/draft-film-room/2022/kayvon-thibodeauxs-drop-draft-boards-makes-no-sense

I can't copy and paste because the article has videos, but it is a good report with video evidence. I think Thibodeaux is becoming a victim of prospect fartigue at this point. He's not Chase Young, Bosa, etc., but the tools are there and while his sack numbers were mediocre, his pass rush win % was very high and that tends to translate. I hope the Jets get lucky and draft him at 4. 

We should pass on that gas

[HawkeyeJet]

I’ll say this about Karlaftis.  This isn’t a new take from me and I could certainly be wrong.  I legitimately believe that if you switched Karlaftis and Hutchinson and Karlaftis played with that Michigan D the last two years, he’d be every bit the hot prospect Hutchinson is.

[jetstream23]

3 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I’ll say this about Karlaftis.  This isn’t a new take from me and I could certainly be wrong.  I legitimately believe that if you switched Karlaftis and Hutchinson and Karlaftis played with that Michigan D the last two years, he’d be every bit the hot prospect Hutchinson is.

 

 

So he's a complete no-brainer pick for you at #10?  

[HawkeyeJet]

3 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

 

So he's a complete no-brainer pick for you at #10?  

If there were a WR worth drafting at 4, yes.

[jetstream23]

7 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

If there were a WR worth drafting at 4, yes.

That seems to be the problem.  We like a LOT of guys at #10 that we don't like at #4.

The challenge (if the Jets can't trade back) will be assessing which of the guys the Jets think could still be there at #10 if they leave him on the board at #4.

[nycdan]

9 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

That seems to be the problem.  We like a LOT of guys at #10 that we don't like at #4.

The challenge (if the Jets can't trade back) will be assessing which of the guys the Jets think could still be there at #10 if they leave him on the board at #4.

Exactly this.  No matter who we take at #4, unless Hutch miraculously slips through, he's going to feel over-drafted.  That's pretty much set.  Unless we want to sit on our hands for the next few picks while other teams jump to the podium, we have to take someone and not worry about that.  And, echoing Jetstream, JD needs to pick at #4 with an eye towards what he thinks will still be there at #10.  If he likes Karlaftis and Johnson about as much as Thibs, but he really likes one WR more than the others, than WR at 4 makes more sense.  If he wants to come away with a CB and a WR and he likes London, Williams, and Wilson all similarly, then Sauce at 4 it is.

All the wailing, whining, lamentations and chest-beating will be from people who don't understand that the draft is all about game theory.  They just see shiny things on mock drafts.  And sadly, many of them write for national media organizations.

[maury77]

Regarding KT, has he run the 3 cone yet? I'd like to see his score. I think the biggest things he has to work on are his hand usage (the article mentions this) and his ability to chain moves. Right now, if you stop KT's initial move, its pretty much endgame for him. He has to learn how to counter what the blocker is doing to him. 

[jetstream23]

5 hours ago, nycdan said:

Exactly this.  No matter who we take at #4, unless Hutch miraculously slips through, he's going to feel over-drafted.  That's pretty much set.  Unless we want to sit on our hands for the next few picks while other teams jump to the podium, we have to take someone and not worry about that.  And, echoing Jetstream, JD needs to pick at #4 with an eye towards what he thinks will still be there at #10.  If he likes Karlaftis and Johnson about as much as Thibs, but he really likes one WR more than the others, than WR at 4 makes more sense.  If he wants to come away with a CB and a WR and he likes London, Williams, and Wilson all similarly, then Sauce at 4 it is.

All the wailing, whining, lamentations and chest-beating will be from people who don't understand that the draft is all about game theory.  They just see shiny things on mock drafts.  And sadly, many of them write for national media organizations.

Bingo!  Let's assume that the Jets really want to come out the 4 and 10 picks with an Edge and WR (not a certainty but a pretty reasonable assumption given Jets needs and the Edge/WR value in the Top 15).  I would suggest they need to evaluate these two possibilities....

1. You take an Edge at Pick 4 (likely the Edge#3 on your board) and you are okay if the WRs on the board at #10 are your 2nd or 3rd choice.

2. You take WR at Pick 4 (likely the WR#1 on your board) and you are okay if the Edge rushers on the board at #10 are your 5th or 6th choice.

What's a practical scenario here?

- A Travon Walker or Jermaine Johnson at #4 (assuming Hutch and Thibs are gone) and potentially a WR like Olave or Burks (if Wilson and/or London have been taken).

- A Wilson at #4 (assuming he's the Jets WR1) and probably someone like Karlaftis at #10 (assuming Hutch, Thibs, Walker and Johnson are gone).

The above two are just guesses but that's kind of the way I'm thinking about this.

The "game theory" here really comes down to two things:  What positions do the Jets believe the teams between #5 and #9 will take with their picks?  And, depending upon what position the Jets take at #4 will another team behind them (#11 and later) try to jump ahead knowing what the Jets are likely looking for at #10?

Final thought - If the Jets "miss out" on Edge or WR for whatever reason at 4, 10, do they then use the 35 and/or 38 to get back into the middle/late 1st round for something like their 4th or 5th WR target or their 6th, 7th Edge target?

 

[BurntDice]

I was listening to the Brugler podcast and he said nfl teams view him in the same light as “Vic Beasley” tier coming out. This is concerning 

[maury77]

46 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I was listening to the Brugler podcast and he said nfl teams view him in the same light as “Vic Beasley” tier coming out. This is concerning 

I don't see that comparison at all, but then again its Brugler, so ....

[Untouchable]

On 3/30/2022 at 2:22 PM, sec101row23 said:

Karlaftis is the forgotten man.   His testing has been great and his tape is sold.  I think he’ll be bargain come draft night.  

He’ll go to Baltimore at #14 and end up being Ryan Kerrigan 2.0

But that’s not good enough for Jets fans for some reason…

[CotcheryifyouCan]

id take him but dion jordan vibes gives me hesitation. i could be totally wrong i dont watch a lot of pac 12 games. Karlaftis i think is the best of the bunch behind hutchinson

[Vader]

On 3/30/2022 at 4:22 PM, sec101row23 said:

Karlaftis is the forgotten man.   His testing has been great and his tape is sold.  I think he’ll be bargain come draft night.  

Seems destined for Pittsburgh or New England 

[BurntDice]

3 hours ago, maury77 said:

I don't see that comparison at all, but then again its Brugler, so ....

He didn’t mean Beasley was his comp. Just that teams viewed them in the same prospect tier coming out aka top 10, but not top 5. 
 

Brugler  has been spot on with this draft all year. He was the first to have hutch as edge 1, first to have Ickey top 5, first to have walker as top 10 now those are all the consensus pretty much  

[Irish Jet]

Thibodeaux went from overrated to underrated almost overnight.

I think he's the best prospect who'll realistically be there at #4 by some way. Even amid all the concerns about his effort and taking plays off his pass rush win rate was consistently elite. He's tested superbly as an athlete and his play was great. The concerns are somewhat legitimate but he seems a good guy and it's not like he's acted unprofessionally - people may be reading too much into things he's said.

I'd take him at 4 in a heartbeat. 

[Adoni Beast]

On 3/30/2022 at 3:53 PM, kdels62 said:

KT and Karlaftis have fallen for entirely artificial reasons. 

Teams picking after 10 Spreading nonsense so they drop...