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kdels62

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17 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 

I get it, he was never gonna set the measurement boards on fire. I don't know if I could argue for him any earlier than rnd 4... but late 3 if there was a run on WRs... I just feel like you know what you're getting with him. plug and play WR3, who can spot fill in Z in 2-receiver sets. He'll be the Tyler Boyd of the offense.

Pickens resonates to me a lot like Allen Robinson. That's the potential ceiling we're looking at. Bit more meat on Robinson's frame but Pickens isn't far behind. 

Well that’s it right. I think Drummond and David Bell will end up having nice careers but neither will push the envelope but rather stabilize a WR room. 

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58 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Can’t wait for you to purchase a black Zach Wilson jersey in December to gear up for the play off run.

As you know the Bears play the Jets at home this year. I invited my friend who is a psychologist to the game as I think I may need help during the game.

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16 minutes ago, maury77 said:

@kdels62 One guy that popped out to me on London's film was Jaxton Dart. Dart and Caleb Williams both potentially look like high first rounders in 2 years. 

I thought Jaxson Dart sucked but had tools. He was not as bad as Slovis tho. I’ll be curious to see if Dart starts for Kiffen in Mississippi. 

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8 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Oh and I've been going in on some London stuff and I'm a hard pass on London. Do not want at all.  Wild you have him #1 and crazy we could be so drastically different in opinion

I put this in the Baldy breakdown thread, worth posting here;

If London was a TE, I'd love him.  No thanks though in the top 10.  He's not fast, at all and doesnt create separation.  Even plays where he does "get open" down field, like the double move Baldy shared vs. ND.  That wasnt a good move at all, he doesnt have near the route running as the OSU guys.  In fact, it was actually pathetic double move, it was just some of the worst Defense I've ever seen.  It kind of reminds of watching Zach Wilson last year, you see these flashy plays that pop and you see this big appealing target but when you watch it more closely, I just dont see anything that translates as a WR.  So many of these "flashy" plays just will not translate because the defenders we so terribly out of position, anyone could make the play.  I've also noticed for as many underthrown balls that had to go up and get, he also creates contested balls by leaving his feet when it's not necessary.  He's not a nuanced WR like at all.  Lacks the simple stuff that makes WR's great.  He's not late with his hands, he has very bad Footwork, doesnt have wiggle, he doesnt know how to catch the ball at full speed, leaps when unnecessary.  HUGE red flags on London.  HUGE.  The fact that he's a slug makes it worse.  Hard pass on London.  Hard pass.

I agree with all of this, also lets look at the quality of DBs' and defenses he faced last year.......crickets.

He did not play vs the two good Washington cbs last year, he played vs the garbage pac12 dbs and still could not get open.  (look at the draft boards and see how may pac 12 dbs are nicely rated prospects.)

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On 4/19/2022 at 7:16 PM, kdels62 said:

Up next I’m posting my top 10 LBers. It’s a good group that gets dropped because of positional value. 
E6DAE3DF-7B7D-4D74-B495-53A44A5B6131.thumb.jpeg.09987b7469b5082de8cdf47fd582316d.jpeg

one of the deepest groups in a while i feel like.  It's a really good ILB group where you can get some of these guys in round 3 and feel really good about them. 

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On 4/19/2022 at 2:24 PM, kdels62 said:

Well I finally got around to doing my mostly final version of my big board. I will drop the big board by positional rank since I think it helps keep things interesting.
 

First up is Wide Receivers 

C1675D3B-81D6-40F9-BF58-7BCAD39B0870.thumb.jpeg.a240e16240bf98846dccf4ec57c8335b.jpeg

Next to each player is their overall rank on my big board.

no problems with this.  I would have had watson higher personally, and i think robinson is better than austin but thats my personal preference.  

I think had williams been healthy you can have a legit conversation about him wilson or london beign the top guy in this draft. 

 

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On 4/19/2022 at 3:09 PM, derp said:

Can you sell me on Garrett Wilson? I see a guy with flashy stop start who played at a big school but never was the guy and is just an above average size adjusted athlete. I tend to be down on the skinny guys I guess.

I feel like he’s ranked (by most, not just you) as if he produced significantly better than he did and/or he’s a significantly better athlete than he is. And I think he benefits from the newer era of wide receivers and what they look like.

He's not a top 10 pick (although i think he will be), but he's maybe the most well rounded wr in this draft.  People who are knocking his route running dont know what theyre looking at.  Sure it needs some refinement but what he's doing shows such a good understanding of leverage and tying moves together that you just dont always see from guys coming out.  He's not as refined as Jefferson was coming out, but he's definitely got a similar understanding of leverage of defenders, when to use certain moves, and how to set them all up.  I think sometimes he bites off a little more than he can chew currently. 

The thing is theres a lot of creativity in route running.  Its legit an art form with how its taught now, so if youre evaluating WRs sometimes people are like "well his routes all over the place, its not crisp" well thats because he's stemming, working into blind spots, then working back to the break point.  His break points are really good, not always perfect because again sometimes he tries to really snap one off in a step fewer than he can, but for the most part he's pretty on point footwork wise.  Add in body control, YAC, contested catch ability, and legit speed.. He's probably the most well rounded in this class.  

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One more not re WR's and I havent really come out and said this on the board.  

 

Keep an eye on Michael Woods III in the mid rounds.  I really do think he's slept on because his production was not that good in college, but he's really coming along as a player in private workouts and I do think he'll be a contributor for a team in the mid to late rounds.  Ive talked about him to a few people privately.  I think i mentioned him to @paradis 2 years ago.  Just a very under the radar name to keep an eye on. 

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41 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

He's not a top 10 pick (although i think he will be), but he's maybe the most well rounded wr in this draft.  People who are knocking his route running dont know what theyre looking at.  Sure it needs some refinement but what he's doing shows such a good understanding of leverage and tying moves together that you just dont always see from guys coming out.  He's not as refined as Jefferson was coming out, but he's definitely got a similar understanding of leverage of defenders, when to use certain moves, and how to set them all up.  I think sometimes he bites off a little more than he can chew currently. 

The thing is theres a lot of creativity in route running.  Its legit an art form with how its taught now, so if youre evaluating WRs sometimes people are like "well his routes all over the place, its not crisp" well thats because he's stemming, working into blind spots, then working back to the break point.  His break points are really good, not always perfect because again sometimes he tries to really snap one off in a step fewer than he can, but for the most part he's pretty on point footwork wise.  Add in body control, YAC, contested catch ability, and legit speed.. He's probably the most well rounded in this class.  

I absolutely buy that he’s the most well rounded in the class. Just to me, I’m having trouble comparing across years. I would’ve taken Jefferson mid first that draft no problem - would’ve been excited if the Jets took him at 11 - but he went what, 22? Wilson is smaller, moderately faster, less polished, less production - I think Jefferson had a better vert too. 

I guess it’s at least partially a function of how weak the draft class is overall but I see a borderline first round guy with traits but a very risky profile analytics wise and top ten is just wild to me. I think you can make a compelling argument he and Elijah Moore would be in a comparable tier of prospect. The most positive case production wise among recent first round prospects I can think of is a slower Waddle and again Waddle is a much better athlete.

I get it’s a function of the overall draft class and he’s still a fun prospect I’d be excited about it’s just hard to wrap my head around taking Wilson at ten after the last couple WR classes.

38 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

One more not re WR's and I havent really come out and said this on the board.  

 

Keep an eye on Michael Woods III in the mid rounds.  I really do think he's slept on because his production was not that good in college, but he's really coming along as a player in private workouts and I do think he'll be a contributor for a team in the mid to late rounds.  Ive talked about him to a few people privately.  I think i mentioned him to @paradis 2 years ago.  Just a very under the radar name to keep an eye on. 

You’ve talked about Woods!

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1 hour ago, derp said:

I absolutely buy that he’s the most well rounded in the class. Just to me, I’m having trouble comparing across years. I would’ve taken Jefferson mid first that draft no problem - would’ve been excited if the Jets took him at 11 - but he went what, 22? Wilson is smaller, moderately faster, less polished, less production - I think Jefferson had a better vert too. 

I guess it’s at least partially a function of how weak the draft class is overall but I see a borderline first round guy with traits but a very risky profile analytics wise and top ten is just wild to me. I think you can make a compelling argument he and Elijah Moore would be in a comparable tier of prospect. The most positive case production wise among recent first round prospects I can think of is a slower Waddle and again Waddle is a much better athlete.

I get it’s a function of the overall draft class and he’s still a fun prospect I’d be excited about it’s just hard to wrap my head around taking Wilson at ten after the last couple WR classes.

You’ve talked about Woods!

its hard to compare years draft wise, i actually hate doing it.  This class is not as loaded with High end players like previous WR classes.  No doubt that historic year of jeudy, lamb, jefferson will be one of the better in a while, and due to that this class gets really knocked down.  It's really a disservice because there are some good WR's in this draft, just maybe not in that class of draft prospect. ideally, Douglas engineers a trade down and you can grab one of these guys in the teens where they probably should go. 

I think Wilson ends up being the first guy off the board, and I think he goes to ATL at 8 if i had to guess right now which to me is high.  I would hesitant to take anyone even at 10 personally. ideal scenario is you get your guy at 4 and trade back at 10 but I just dont know what the deal will be.  Giants have already received calls for both 5 and 7 so teams are wiling to move up, whether 10 is too late or 4 too early I dont know. 

I do think we'll see alot of movement on draft day because of the lack of high end talent, i can see teams moving up for their guy especially at the WR position.  After the first few guys theres a stable group of pretty good role players to choose from but very few of the wrs in this draft have a higher ceiling.  It's a relatively deep WR class in the sense you'll get viable players in the mid rounds, youre just not getting really high end ceilings past the first few guys. 

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17 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I agree with all of this, also lets look at the quality of DBs' and defenses he faced last year.......crickets.

He did not play vs the two good Washington cbs last year, he played vs the garbage pac12 dbs and still could not get open.  (look at the draft boards and see how may pac 12 dbs are nicely rated prospects.)

I really think we all have vastly different definitions of what constitutes 'getting open'.  

Here's a tweet that sums it up as well as the 5 times I tried:

I have seen plenty of snaps where he had lots of separation.  yes, plenty also where he had to beat the DB up close, but his use of his body to take the DB out of position to contest the catch is really good.  So many time he is catching the ball and the DB is behind him, with no options other than drawing a flag or waving as London catches the ball.  Most analysts measure separation by horizontal distance on the field but I think there's more to London than that.  Any 5'10" CB who tries to single cover him up the sideline is going to lose more than a few times.

I have no idea if he can do that successfully in the NFL, but there are plenty of 'slow' WRs who have/had great careers.  Boldin.  Keenan Allen.  Fitz.  I can't definitively put him as the top WR in this group, but I like him and would be very excited to see what he could do here next season.

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22 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

its hard to compare years draft wise, i actually hate doing it.  This class is not as loaded with High end players like previous WR classes.  No doubt that historic year of jeudy, lamb, jefferson will be one of the better in a while, and due to that this class gets really knocked down.  It's really a disservice because there are some good WR's in this draft, just maybe not in that class of draft prospect. ideally, Douglas engineers a trade down and you can grab one of these guys in the teens where they probably should go. 

I think Wilson ends up being the first guy off the board, and I think he goes to ATL at 8 if i had to guess right now which to me is high.  I would hesitant to take anyone even at 10 personally. ideal scenario is you get your guy at 4 and trade back at 10 but I just dont know what the deal will be.  Giants have already received calls for both 5 and 7 so teams are wiling to move up, whether 10 is too late or 4 too early I dont know. 

I do think we'll see alot of movement on draft day because of the lack of high end talent, i can see teams moving up for their guy especially at the WR position.  After the first few guys theres a stable group of pretty good role players to choose from but very few of the wrs in this draft have a higher ceiling.  It's a relatively deep WR class in the sense you'll get viable players in the mid rounds, youre just not getting really high end ceilings past the first few guys. 

Yeah, I do get that it's difficult to compare classes to an extent and I guess the WR market has made it more premium. This class is obviously not up there with 2020 or 2021.

Really where I actually get hung up is I think the 2019 draft was a better WR class than this one production and tools wise coming out and you had two guys in the first and seven in the second that year. AJ Brown was basically Burks production wise with better tools and got knocked down to the second round because he played too much in the slot. Put him in this draft and I think there's a legitimate argument he's the best prospect.

I think this class is getting pushed up partially due to talent, but I can't shake the idea that it's also because the last three have been so good that teams think they can hit - but this group of players just isn't the same caliber. So I think while you see it getting knocked down because 2020 was so good, I see it as one that should have a couple first rounders and a bunch of dart throws but is getting pushed up because teams have had so much success with early WR's recently

To me, as much as the Jets need to improve the WR room, the best use of capital is to wait and hit it multiple times. As you said, the class doesn't lack depth, it just lacks the high end college guys. To me bowing to how the league is valuing these guys in this particular class is a mistake and it's better to zig where others zag if there's a poor overall valuation of the group. That's also why trading for a veteran would be so, so huge in my opinion. Duck this class early, still take your mid round shot, and get an immediate impact guy.

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8 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I really think we all have vastly different definitions of what constitutes 'getting open'.  

Here's a tweet that sums it up as well as the 5 times I tried:

I have seen plenty of snaps where he had lots of separation.  yes, plenty also where he had to beat the DB up close, but his use of his body to take the DB out of position to contest the catch is really good.  So many time he is catching the ball and the DB is behind him, with no options other than drawing a flag or waving as London catches the ball.  Most analysts measure separation by horizontal distance on the field but I think there's more to London than that.  Any 5'10" CB who tries to single cover him up the sideline is going to lose more than a few times.

I have no idea if he can do that successfully in the NFL, but there are plenty of 'slow' WRs who have/had great careers.  Boldin.  Keenan Allen.  Fitz.  I can't definitively put him as the top WR in this group, but I like him and would be very excited to see what he could do here next season.

I get uncomfortable comparing him to possible outlier players as for every boldin who is big and slower and then is great there are many who have those attributes and do not.  Boldin was a bully receiver.

As for not getting open all I know is that 4 out of every 5 highlights i have seen of him it is him being well covered and out leaping the other guy.

If he is not getting open vs lousy dbs from the pac 12 how is he going to do vs guys way way better.

Hey the guy might be great, I just have a lot of other guys ahead of him in this draft.

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9 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, I do get that it's difficult to compare classes to an extent and I guess the WR market has made it more premium. This class is obviously not up there with 2020 or 2021.

Really where I actually get hung up is I think the 2019 draft was a better WR class than this one production and tools wise coming out and you had two guys in the first and seven in the second that year. AJ Brown was basically Burks production wise with better tools and got knocked down to the second round because he played too much in the slot. Put him in this draft and I think there's a legitimate argument he's the best prospect.

I think this class is getting pushed up partially due to talent, but I can't shake the idea that it's also because the last three have been so good that teams think they can hit - but this group of players just isn't the same caliber. So I think while you see it getting knocked down because 2020 was so good, I see it as one that should have a couple first rounders and a bunch of dart throws but is getting pushed up because teams have had so much success with early WR's recently

To me, as much as the Jets need to improve the WR room, the best use of capital is to wait and hit it multiple times. As you said, the class doesn't lack depth, it just lacks the high end college guys. To me bowing to how the league is valuing these guys in this particular class is a mistake and it's better to zig where others zag if there's a poor overall valuation of the group. That's also why trading for a veteran would be so, so huge in my opinion. Duck this class early, still take your mid round shot, and get an immediate impact guy.

I think they would like to trade down and grab london or Williams in the teens, but if they cannot then things get interesting.. Everything hinges on 4 in my mind.  Depending what they are able to get at 4 it obviously will effect where they look to go at 10.  

For arguments sake say they get Thibs at 4. Well then 10 is open to anything and the convo becomes if you cant trade 10, who do you have higher on your board. Stingley, London or Penning? Probably London in that case. 

If Thibs is gone and we go Ekwonu, then 10 likely becomes best available EDGE player there and they wing it or trade up. 

If we take Sauce at 4, then 10 is likely edge as well and then they wing it or trade up.

thats my feeling at least. 

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15 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I think they would like to trade down and grab london or Williams in the teens, but if they cannot then things get interesting.. Everything hinges on 4 in my mind.  Depending what they are able to get at 4 it obviously will effect where they look to go at 10.  

For arguments sake say they get Thibs at 4. Well then 10 is open to anything and the convo becomes if you cant trade 10, who do you have higher on your board. Stingley, London or Penning? Probably London in that case. 

If Thibs is gone and we go Ekwonu, then 10 likely becomes best available EDGE player there and they wing it or trade up. 

If we take Sauce at 4, then 10 is likely edge as well and then they wing it or trade up.

thats my feeling at least. 

I still think Jordan Davis is a sneaky option at 10 and imagine they'd love to move down from there. But I'd also think there's a real chance Stingley is higher on the board than London. But I also struggle to see London as a tenth overall pick.

I guess part of my perspective on this comes from what they did at the tight end position in free agency. They didn't like the cost of wide receivers in free agency so rather than force it, they attacked the need in a different way that they thought was a better use of capital. To me, you do the same thing in the draft.

But there are also folks who view these receivers as top ten players in this class, including Jeremiah who generally seems to be pretty aligned with Douglas valuation wise, so it's possible to likely I'm way off on that.

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31 minutes ago, derp said:

I still think Jordan Davis is a sneaky option at 10 and imagine they'd love to move down from there. But I'd also think there's a real chance Stingley is higher on the board than London. But I also struggle to see London as a tenth overall pick.

I guess part of my perspective on this comes from what they did at the tight end position in free agency. They didn't like the cost of wide receivers in free agency so rather than force it, they attacked the need in a different way that they thought was a better use of capital. To me, you do the same thing in the draft.

But there are also folks who view these receivers as top ten players in this class, including Jeremiah who generally seems to be pretty aligned with Douglas valuation wise, so it's possible to likely I'm way off on that.

its coming down to the fact that if you view the WR's in comparison to other WR years you dont think they are top 10 players.  But when you view their talent in comparison to the talent of other positions in this draft, that valuation creeps higher to actuality.  To certain teams, London will present better value and be higher than a Stingley or Davis.  Stingley is a tough evaluation due to the film being lackluster the last two years and him just being healthy now.  He did time well and I know that gave people a better feel to push him up boards but im still leary.  

Same can be said for london i suppose though as well. 

Bottom line, while these wrs are not top 10 wrs compared to years we've seen, in this draft where the top end talent overall is lackluster, a combination of that and positional proclivity will push them into that sector. 

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1 hour ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I think they would like to trade down and grab london or Williams in the teens, but if they cannot then things get interesting.. Everything hinges on 4 in my mind.  Depending what they are able to get at 4 it obviously will effect where they look to go at 10.  

For arguments sake say they get Thibs at 4. Well then 10 is open to anything and the convo becomes if you cant trade 10, who do you have higher on your board. Stingley, London or Penning? Probably London in that case. 

If Thibs is gone and we go Ekwonu, then 10 likely becomes best available EDGE player there and they wing it or trade up. 

If we take Sauce at 4, then 10 is likely edge as well and then they wing it or trade up.

thats my feeling at least. 

I’ve been starting to feel that the Jets see value in waiting on the Edge defender. They have a deep group at the position and it doesn’t feel like they’re gearing up for an immediate starter at the position. In my mind I’m foreseeing Sauce at 4, Wilson/London at 10 and then a trade up into the low 20s/ high teens for any of Karlaftis/ Mafe/ Johnson/ Ebiketie. 

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1 hour ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

its coming down to the fact that if you view the WR's in comparison to other WR years you dont think they are top 10 players.  But when you view their talent in comparison to the talent of other positions in this draft, that valuation creeps higher to actuality.  To certain teams, London will present better value and be higher than a Stingley or Davis.  Stingley is a tough evaluation due to the film being lackluster the last two years and him just being healthy now.  He did time well and I know that gave people a better feel to push him up boards but im still leary.  

Same can be said for london i suppose though as well. 

Bottom line, while these wrs are not top 10 wrs compared to years we've seen, in this draft where the top end talent overall is lackluster, a combination of that and positional proclivity will push them into that sector. 

To an extent, yes, and I've acknowledged that. I still think there's a gap, the way I'm seeing it - and maybe that's why you said higher to actuality than in actuality. I'd be different if it was like, Lamb or Jefferson or DJ Moore or Ridley being talked about as possible top ten picks. Maybe this class only has like ten guys who are legitimate first round players in other years, but I think it's closer to 20 and so the WR's should slot into the back half. But that's just my perspective, we'll see how this class shakes out. Hopefully the Jets hit on a receiver or two.

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On 4/20/2022 at 7:55 AM, JiFapono said:

Wan'Dale being rated as the 15th best receiver is criminal, CRIMINAL!!!!!!!!!!!    He's going to ball so hard and I'm going to be so obnoxious about it.  I havent even been obnoxious about my Deebo call the day declared, I'm going to be so obnoxious about Wan'Dale.  Might even change my name again JiFapono'Dale.

I wish I could give this post 3 responses. Because it’s funny, it’s an upvote and post of the week material. I have been targeting this kid in almost every mock I do.  

On 4/20/2022 at 10:49 AM, kdels62 said:

Can’t wait for you to purchase a black Zach Wilson jersey in December to gear up for the play off run.

We can only hope. If that happens I’ll buy a black and a white. F the green jersey lol

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On 4/20/2022 at 12:17 PM, kdels62 said:

So the WRs were always gonna be fun to talk about but here’s my Safeties 

CB94486A-2F3C-414D-85C9-529BA48797B2.thumb.jpeg.1f0f40b7113a760c74fee49bef5bcc2a.jpeg

for some reason JT Woods isn’t a player I can pick on the Draft Network site so I manually added him in. The safety position is deep with talent. 

S and LB born deep - great lists.

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2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Based on positional value/ how teams draft. If I was only going by how I feel about the players he’s top 10.

Recent history of first round off ball LB’s is bad. Listened to a great podcast where they talked about how much linebackers are asked to do, how hard it is to do all of it, how much what guys have upstairs matters, and how teams draft traits early and that doesn’t correlate well. Lloyd is a really good player but if I’m drafting, kind of like you said, I’m kicking linebacker down the list.

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2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

It’s how I imagine a generic team might put together a board after I gave them all my scouting notes.

Got it.  I thought this was your personal, top prosects, no factors to consider.  I'd be surprised if the NFL agrees w/ Dean > Lloyd.  NFL is a copy cat league, teams are going to think he's the next Micah Persons, Isiah Simmons, Devin White, etc.  That said, he might not go top 10 likes those guys just because of the way the draft is set up this year...but I'd be surprised if Dean goes before him, Lloyd's tape is ridiculous.  He's a monster.

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