S2 Score says Stroud, Hooker are going to be epic busts

[Doggin94it]

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-3-qb-bryce-young-has-the-s2

Part 3, QB: Bryce Young has the 'S2' advantage

Today, NFL teams value the "S2" test. Multiple sources tell Bob McGinn that Young scored 98%, while C.J. Stroud scored 18%. What does this all mean? The draft series continues...

 

 

 

 

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This is the 39^th year that Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-’91), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-’17), BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-’19), The Athletic (2020-’21) and GoLongTD.com (2022-’23). Until 2014, personnel people often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. The 12-minute, 50-question Wonderlic test no longer is administered at the NFL combine. Players generally took the test at spring 2022 timing days, all-star games and at pro days in March and April. The NFL average is about 19.

Today, Part 3: Quarterbacks.

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The standard scouting form for executives in personnel evaluating college quarterbacks includes arm strength and touch, release, accuracy, pocket awareness, the ability to escape the rush, competitiveness, mental awareness and personal character.

But NFL teams always have sought a better mousetrap to reduce the number of debilitating, job-costing mistakes prevalent at the game’s most vital position.

Two Hall of Fame inductees, Giants GM George Young and Cowboys coach Tom Landry, are said to have introduced the Wonderlic Personnel Test to the NFL more than 50 years ago as a low-cost, low-fuss way to measure intelligence and predict performance in any job. It remains an active element in the evaluation process.

As an alternative for players with reading difficulties, teams would administer so-called matrices tests, which substituted shape recognition and were supposed to achieve comparable results.

In the 1980s, pioneers such as Joel Goldberg of the New York Giants used his psychology background to write a lengthy test given to players. Team after team followed suit with their own creations, and the so-called HRT exam (Human Resource Tactics) remains popular as a measurement of leadership, coachability, self-efficacy, focus and social maturity, among other results.

The newest thing in judging athletes is S2 Cognition, a business based in Nashville that has been marketing its product to NFL teams for about seven years. And, in interviews with several football executives this month, S2 testing has developed a reputation so strong in the industry that it undoubtedly will affect to some degree how quarterbacks are drafted.

Suffice it to say, the candidacy for Alabama’s Bryce Young as the top quarterback only was strengthened by his preeminent performance on the S2 whereas the draft stock of Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, possibly the No. 2 prospect, took a hit.

“The S2 people will say, ‘Hey, guys that graded high on this test don’t always play well,’” one club executive said, “’But, we’ve never had somebody grade low and play well.’”

The S2 website showcases the results of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who was the No. 1 pick in 2020. His total score of 97% was broken down into four sections: 94% on visual learning, 97% in instinctive learning, 97% in impulse control and 93% in improvisation.

According to S2, the 30-to-45 minute exercise is conducted on what The Athletic’s Matt Barrows in February described as a “specially designed gaming laptop and response pad that can record reactions in two milliseconds.” It measures how players process and make split-second decisions. “Anticipating, reading, reacting and adapting to the game are measurable skills,” the website offers.

Multiple sources said Young’s total score was 98% whereas Stroud’s total score was 18%.

Some other total scores in the class of quarterbacks this year were 96% for Fresno State’s Jake Haener, 93% for Kentucky’s Will Levis and Brigham Young’s Jaren Hall, 84% for Houston’s Clayton Tune, 79% for Florida’s Anthony Richardson and 46% for Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker.

“Stroud scored 18,” an executive said. “That is like red alert, red alert, you can’t take a guy like that. That is why I have Stroud as a bust. That in conjunction with the fact, name one Ohio State quarterback that’s ever done it in the league.”

Justin Fields has started two seasons for Chicago, and among Buckeye retirees the ex-Bear Mike Tomczak might be next. It certainly wouldn’t be first-round busts Dwayne Haskins (2019) and Art Schlichter (1982).

Haener, during a recent appearance at the 49ers’ visit day for local prospects in Santa Clara, Calif., admitted being told he did well on the S2. “I try to show people how I can process, how I can see things,” he told reporters.

Young’s extraordinary score was in keeping with the anticipatory type of play that evaluators often cite as one of his greatest assets.

“The only guy play-style-wise I can compare him to is Joe Burrow in his LSU year,” said an executive with extensive NFL experience. “Bryce is the best combination of poise, processing, instincts, toughness. This kid feels and sees so much.”

When another executive was informed that Stroud scored extremely low, he said that it confirmed what he had seen on tape.

“That was my concern with him,” the scout said. “His personality is just sort of calm and mellow and laidback, and that’s the way he plays. You look at how Bryce Young plays and how Stroud plays, I don’t see how anyone can look at those two play football and you’d want that guy (Stroud) over Young. Bryce’s mind is so quick and he processes so fast. Whereas with Stroud, everything is much, much more programmed.”

One NFC executive described the S2 as a “great test.” Said an AFC executive: “For quarterbacks, it’s been pretty good,”

Another executive said S2 made inroads early in its existence testing hitters for major league baseball clubs.

“Then they started doing it in football,” the executive said. “If you get a high score as a quarterback it’s not saying you’re going to be a great player. But if you get a low score, it’s 100% — none of the quarterbacks that got a low score became good players.

“The benchmark is 80. Eighty and above is good. Stroud was 18. It’s incredibly terrible. He’s going to be off (some team’s) boards. He will not be picked by those teams.”

An executive said that Iowa State’s Brock Purdy, the 262^nd and final player selected, had the highest S2 score among rookies in 2022.

Despite the S2 results, a survey of 16 evaluators asking them for their choice as the quarterback with the best chance to bust showed Stroud behind Richardson and Levis. The bust vote count was eight for Richardson, five for Levis, two for Stroud and one for Young. In addition, the panel was asked to rank their top quarterbacks on a 1-2-3-4-5 basis, with a first-place vote worth 5 points, a second-place vote worth 4 and so on.

Young, with 10 firsts and 72 points, led the way. He was followed by Stroud (56, two), Levis (46, three), Richardson (40, one), Hooker (20), Max Duggan (two), Haener (two), Tanner McKee (one) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (one).

Here’s a sampling how some scouts summed up this collection of quarterbacks.

AFC evaluator: “I would say a bit above average. There’s not a bonafide guy. There’s no Andrew Luck. Comparing it to Joe Burrow, Tua (Tagovailoa), Justin Herbert, that class was way better coming out. You can poke holes in all these guys.”

AFC evaluator: “It’s the most overhyped, and understandably so, group that I can recall. Every one of them is flawed, and some with major flaws. So I think they all get overdrafted and, unfortunately, they all underperform. Even if they become starters they’re bottom-half-of-the-league starters.”

AFC evaluator: “Teams have gone to better athletes at quarterback, but they’re shorter.”

NFC evaluator: “None of these guys are Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence.”

AFC evaluator: “History tells us probably four of the (top) five will be busts. It’s crazy.”

Full scouting reports on Bryce Young. C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis and all quarterbacks — packed with the scouts’ extensive analysis — are below…

[Doggin94it]

And Richardson is just below the "80" benchmark.

For reference, Zach got an 84

[T0mShane]

Iirc, those aren’t the scores, but the percentiles in which they scored. That said, it’s weighed against a population of other football players so it’s still scary to see the lower numbers

[Doggin94it]

11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Iirc, those aren’t the scores, but the percentiles in which they scored. That said, it’s weighed against a population of other football players so it’s still scary to see the lower numbers

Yep

[Matt39]

How do you let your client sit for that test? You’d think he took some practice exams.

[Sammybighead]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

How do you let your client sit for that test? You’d think he took some practice exams.

Read the details of the test. Doesn't seem like something you can study for. 

A prospect can skip it, but that also doesn't look good

[football guy]

3 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

And Richardson is just below the "80" benchmark.

For reference, Zach got an 84

Pretty sure Zach's highest score was an 88- at least according to people that rep him 

[maury77]

2 minutes ago, football guy said:

Pretty sure Zach's highest score was an 88- at least according to people that rep him 

On a curve?

[football guy]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

On a curve?

Good question not sure whether it’s percentile or raw score

[T0mShane]

12 minutes ago, football guy said:

Good question not sure whether it’s percentile or raw score

Percentile.

[Larz]

The S2 founder came out a few days ago and said these leaks are BS 

[Larz]

The day that those leaks happened, my phone was blowing up from general managers and our attorney. We can't speak on specifics. What I will say is the list of scores that I have seen, two of those scores are not accurate. They're not accurate at all. Some of the reason could be for narrative purposes. The other reason is that they don't have context, so somebody could have gotten a list of very early scores. One of the particular athletes on that list I know had a difficult time making his way to the all-star game, things were delayed. He was in high demand. He was hungry, tired, it was 11 p.m., didn't want to do it. He was frustrated. We administered the test because we're asked to. We knew at that point in time, hey, we're going to get you again. We'll get you at your Pro Day, your 30 visit. We did that and his score is significantly higher than what it was being reported 

[Beerfish]

This is where tape just has to tell you something.  You can;t be a total dumbass and still perform as well as some of these guys have.  Sure you take a look at the type of offense they run like Tennesses effective but whack a doodle offense but if a guy reads the play and delivers the ball and has pocket presence, f'ck the intelligence tests.

All time greats like Marino, Bradshaw and Favre never came across as brilliant minds.

[chirorob]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

The day that those leaks happened, my phone was blowing up from general managers and our attorney. We can't speak on specifics. What I will say is the list of scores that I have seen, two of those scores are not accurate. They're not accurate at all. Some of the reason could be for narrative purposes. The other reason is that they don't have context, so somebody could have gotten a list of very early scores. One of the particular athletes on that list I know had a difficult time making his way to the all-star game, things were delayed. He was in high demand. He was hungry, tired, it was 11 p.m., didn't want to do it. He was frustrated. We administered the test because we're asked to. We knew at that point in time, hey, we're going to get you again. We'll get you at your Pro Day, your 30 visit. We did that and his score is significantly higher than what it was being reported 

Hell, a team could be leaking that, hoping Stroud falls so they can take him without trading up as far.

[Larz]

8 minutes ago, chirorob said:

Hell, a team could be leaking that, hoping Stroud falls so they can take him without trading up as far.

The teans have access to the real scores. 

[Kelly to Allen no huddle]

The leaks are allegedly fake...

He did say all the big names scored well ... Who knows what that means. I really wish they didn't stop the wonderlic. I remember when the Buffalo Bills drafted Marcellus Wiley out of Columbia in 1997 2nd rd, and I think he had a wonderlic score in the 40s. When you have a great athlete like that combined with high intelligence that's usually a very high marker for success or at least something you want to bet on in an evaluation...