Guess some of you need to hear this: Zach Wilson (and his $23 mil 5th yr option) has no Future in NY

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

.... All the while Zach stands ... Stacking solid practice after solid practice ... Playing better each outing ... Quietly honing the edge of his skills.... Improving under the tutelage of The Master .... To one day be unleashed upon all doubters ... and thus vanquishing them to the bowels of oblivion from the Emerald Throne of Greatness ...

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

If they didn’t believe what would they do? Lock him under the stairs like Harry Potter and send his guaranteed paycheck via owl?

Hmm, hadn't considered literally hiding him away.  What would be the logistics behind something like this, exactly?  What would we tell his Mom and Steve Young?

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

how is 2 years 75MM a big risk from the money side?  it's a middle of the pack QB contract.

if he retires in a year, then it was a bad trade - although from a contract side still the same.

of course the Jets don't believe in Wilson, but that's not what we were discussing

An accelerated dead cap hit would decidedly NOT be "still the same" because the hit would come all at once.  That's all I was saying when you kept trying to compare it to Daniel Jones.  That indeed carries risk.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Too innumerable to list all the QBs that failed to develop behind HOFers.

I already listed those out in a prior thread.  Brb.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Hmm, hadn't considered literally hiding him away.  What would be the logistics behind something like this, exactly?  What would we tell his Mom?

I wanted to Harry Potter him to the practice squad but @Sperm Edwards pointed out that that would technically require an abrogation of his current contract into a practice squad contract with the same terms, thus triggering a cap acceleration.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

How many young struggling QBs played on a team that had the luxury of replacing him with a HOF QB?  
On a team that still believed in the young QB’s talent and fully intend on trying to develop the young guy? 

None? 
 

 

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Too innumerable to list all the QBs that failed to develop behind HOFers.

 

NOTE:  Not all of the guys listed on the right are HOFers but they're all at least BORDERLINE HOF guys:

 

• Marc Wilson (pick 1.15/1980/OAK) - Jim Plunkett
• Mark Malone (1.28/1980/PIT) - Terry Bradshaw 
• Oliver Luck (2.44/1982/HOU) - Warren Moon
• Kelly Stouffer (1.6/1987/STL) - Dave Krieg
• Dan McGwire (1.16/1991/SEA) - Dave Krieg
• Tommy Maddox  (1.25/1992/DEN) - John Elway
• Matt Blundin (2.40/1992/KC) - Joe Montana
• Todd Collins (2.45/1995/BUF) - Jim Kelly/Warren Moon/Rich Gannon
• Jim Druckenmiller (1.26/1997/SF) - Steve Young
• Marques Tuiasosopo (2.59/2001/OAK) - Rich Gannon
• Patrick Ramsey (1.32/2002/WSH) - Mark Brunell  @Warfish
• Byron Leftwich (1.7/2003/JAX) - Mark Brunell
• Kyle Boller (1.19/2003/BAL) - Steve McNair
• Jason Campbell (1.25/2005/WSH) - Mark Brunell
• Matt Leinart (1.10/2006/AZ) - Kurt Warner  @T0mShane
• Brian Brohm (2.56/2008/GB) - Aaron Rodgers
• Jimmy Clausen (2.48/2010/CAR) - Cam Newton
• Christian Ponder (1.12/2011/MIN) - Donovan McNabb
• Brandon Weeden (1.22/2012/CLE) - Tony Romo
• Brock Osweiler (2.57/2012/DEN) - Peyton Manning
• DeShone Kizer (2.52/2017/CLE) - Aaron Rodgers
• Josh Rosen (1.10/2018/AZ) - Tom Brady/Matt Ryan

 

 

 

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

NOTE:  Not all of the guys listed on the right are HOFers but they're all at least BORDERLINE HOF guys:

 

• Marc Wilson (pick 1.15/1980/OAK) - Jim Plunkett
• Mark Malone (1.28/1980/PIT) - Terry Bradshaw 
• Oliver Luck (2.44/1982/HOU) - Warren Moon
• Kelly Stouffer (1.6/1987/STL) - Dave Krieg
• Dan McGwire (1.16/1991/SEA) - Dave Krieg
• Tommy Maddox  (1.25/1992/DEN) - John Elway
• Matt Blundin (2.40/1992/KC) - Joe Montana
• Todd Collins (2.45/1995/BUF) - Jim Kelly/Warren Moon/Rich Gannon
• Jim Druckenmiller (1.26/1997/SF) - Steve Young
• Marques Tuiasosopo (2.59/2001/OAK) - Rich Gannon
• Patrick Ramsey (1.32/2002/WSH) - Mark Brunell  @Warfish
• Byron Leftwich (1.7/2003/JAX) - Mark Brunell
• Kyle Boller (1.19/2003/BAL) - Steve McNair
• Jason Campbell (1.25/2005/WSH) - Mark Brunell
• Matt Leinart (1.10/2006/AZ) - Kurt Warner  @T0mShane
• Brian Brohm (2.56/2008/GB) - Aaron Rodgers
• Jimmy Clausen (2.48/2010/CAR) - Cam Newton
• Christian Ponder (1.12/2011/MIN) - Donovan McNabb
• Brandon Weeden (1.22/2012/CLE) - Tony Romo
• Brock Osweiler (2.57/2012/DEN) - Peyton Manning
• DeShone Kizer (2.52/2017/CLE) - Aaron Rodgers
• Josh Rosen (1.10/2018/AZ) - Tom Brady/Matt Ryan

 

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

I wanted to Harry Potter him to the practice squad but @Sperm Edwards pointed out that that would technically require an abrogation of his current contract into a practice squad contract with the same terms, thus triggering a cap acceleration.

 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jgb said:

 

Can't wait for Jet Nut to try to pick it apart!

Had to laugh seeing that Todd Collins sat behind not one but TWO Hall of Fame QBs (Jim Kelly/Warren Moon) plus a bonus borderline HOFer (Gannon).

Guess they didn't believe in Collins enough huh.

[Dunnie]

 
NOTE:  Not all of the guys listed on the right are HOFers but they're all at least BORDERLINE HOF guys:
 

• Marc Wilson (pick 1.15/1980/OAK) - Jim Plunkett
• Mark Malone (1.28/1980/PIT) - Terry Bradshaw 
• Oliver Luck (2.44/1982/HOU) - Warren Moon
• Kelly Stouffer (1.6/1987/STL) - Dave Krieg
• Dan McGwire (1.16/1991/SEA) - Dave Krieg
• Tommy Maddox  (1.25/1992/DEN) - John Elway
• Matt Blundin (2.40/1992/KC) - Joe Montana
• Todd Collins (2.45/1995/BUF) - Jim Kelly/Warren Moon/Rich Gannon
• Jim Druckenmiller (1.26/1997/SF) - Steve Young
• Marques Tuiasosopo (2.59/2001/OAK) - Rich Gannon
• Patrick Ramsey (1.32/2002/WSH) - Mark Brunell  [mention=5413]Warfish[/mention]
• Byron Leftwich (1.7/2003/JAX) - Mark Brunell
• Kyle Boller (1.19/2003/BAL) - Steve McNair
• Jason Campbell (1.25/2005/WSH) - Mark Brunell
• Matt Leinart (1.10/2006/AZ) - Kurt Warner  [mention=9582]T0mShane[/mention]
• Brian Brohm (2.56/2008/GB) - Aaron Rodgers
• Jimmy Clausen (2.48/2010/CAR) - Cam Newton
• Christian Ponder (1.12/2011/MIN) - Donovan McNabb
• Brandon Weeden (1.22/2012/CLE) - Tony Romo
• Brock Osweiler (2.57/2012/DEN) - Peyton Manning
• DeShone Kizer (2.52/2017/CLE) - Aaron Rodgers
• Josh Rosen (1.10/2018/AZ) - Tom Brady/Matt Ryan

 
 
 

How did you miss

Rodger / Favre ?
Or
Young/Montana
Or
Brady/Bledsoe ?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Can't wait for Jet Nut to try to pick it apart!

Had to laugh seeing that Todd Collins sat behind not one but TWO Hall of Fame QBs (Jim Kelly/Warren Moon) plus a bonus borderline HOFer (Gannon).

Guess they didn't believe in Collins enough huh.

"But how many of those HOF QBs had a first name starting with the letter 'A'????"

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Dunnie said:

How did you miss

Rodger / Favre ?
Or
Young/Montana
Or
Brady/Bledsoe ?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

 

Go read the thread.  Guys like those were already brought up (as you'll notice, the thread is about Terry Bradshaw).  I was countering it with examples of my own.

The # of failures who sat behind HOFers/borderline HOFers far exceed the list of successes, as you can see.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

How did you miss

Rodger / Favre ?
Or
Young/Montana
Or
Brady/Bledsoe ?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

So you're arguing for at best a 10% chance? Seems that you're on the wrong side of the debate.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

So you're arguing for at best a 10% chance? Seems that you're on the wrong side of the debate.

Gotta go back at least 15 years to find all the "success stories" too.  

I only had to go as far back as Josh Rosen to find one.  And he sat behind TWO Hall of Fame/borderline guys.

Wonder how many Cardinals fans are arguing they gave up on Rosen too quickly.

[PFSIKH]

9 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Problem is isn’t a 5 year pro.  He hasn’t played 2 full seasons.  Trevor Lawrence wasn’t much better than ZW after his rookie season and didn’t turn it around to become the next big thing until mid season of year 2.  Pretty much the same 20 or so games Zach is at.  Think the Jets look at Zach as a developmental project, not a bust who’s career is over like fans who forgot when QBs took 3+ seasons to develop.

Lots of QBs in the history of the NFL start off slow, take years to develop.  Will he?  Have no idea but do know all the posters who state as fact he never will are as funny as all those who claimed Q would never amount to anything, was a dumb lazy pick and should be traded for a 3rd round, if we’re lucky.  

He likes it here, Zach and his family trust the organization to now do right by him.  He idolizes AR and wants to learn from him, believes it’s the best scenario for his development.  I’ve said it before but he’s dating my wife’s niece, she lives in NJ, the families are close, I’m betting they get married.  There’s plenty of reason to believe he’d want to stay.  He’s not getting a better offer elsewhere 
 

So after they eff him in the A by getting Rodgers, Zach still trusts the FO?  "Hey Zach, we know trading for A-A-Ron essentially guarantees you will not be QB1 until 2026 at the earliest...would you mind hanging around for three years?  BTW we are not going to pick up the 5th year option, but feel a QB2 contract at half that rate in the 12-15m/year range is fair.  After all, we want to keep A-A-Ron happy with all these weapons. "  You honestly can see that happening?

The major difference with Trevor is the HC of the Jax is a proven coach.  He won the Superbowl and he is known for being a real good offensive innovator.  Maybe, Hackett can push the needle on Zach, but it gets to the economics of the situation.    Zach has value even if it is very little now.  It servers the Jets better to trade Zach next year, draft a QB in the hopes he is ready by 2026 and save cap space for all the people you will eventually need to pay.  Zac is a luxury that the Jets cannot afford.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Gotta go back at least 20 years to find all the "success stories" too.  

I only had to go as far back as Josh Rosen to find one.  And he sat behind TWO Hall of Fame/borderline guys.

Wonder how many Cardinals fans are arguing they gave up on Rosen too quickly.

[Jetsfan80]

On 8/14/2023 at 1:48 PM, Paradis said:

Yea yea yea. But for real.

7 pages later and only two ppl have offered anything resembling sensible deliberation on how bringing in Aaron for 2-3 yrs isn’t the kiss of death for Zach’s rookie contract with NYJ.  Notice I said Zach’s rookie contract. 

The other 147 objections have been emotionally charged musings about his ability to salvage his career. 

"Paradis was slightly mean with his post so his opinion is WRONG"

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

"Paradis was slightly mean with his post so his opinion is WRONG"

Emotion is by definition unreasonable (in that it operates independent of reason).

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jgb said:

Emotion is by definition unreasonable (in that it operates independent of reason).

Take some notes @Reasonable Jets Fan

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Take some notes @Reasonable Jets Fan

I do appreciate irony. I'm going to request that my username be changed to "Johnny Sunshine."

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

I do appreciate irony. I'm going to request that my username be changed to "Johnny Sunshine."

"Johnny bad young QBs can often be salvaged after 3 years of being bad"

Too long?

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

"Johnny bad young QBs can often be salvaged after 3 years of being bad"

Too long?

Maybe I'll just go with "Giorgio Tsoukalos."

 

[Dunnie]

 
Go read the thread.  Guys like those were already brought up (as you'll notice, the thread is about Terry Bradshaw).  I was countering it with examples of my own.
The # of failures who sat behind HOFers/borderline HOFers far exceed the list of successes, as you can see.

Ah I see ... Yeah ... Good examples to counter the obvious success stories ... Goes to show you ... Can turn out in any number of ways.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Dunnie]

So you're arguing for at best a 10% chance? Seems that you're on the wrong side of the debate.

We are talking HOF in these three examples. Not mere success.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Warfish]

The best thing coming soon is that this debate will die off for a while, as we (hopefully) watch Aaron Rodgers show us, as a fanbase, what quality QB play realy looks like.  We've all said our peace hundreds of times over on Zach Wilson.  Nothing new is here at all.  Just the same homers homering and the same doubters doubting.

Bring on Week 1.

[jgb]

8 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Ah I see ... Yeah ... Good examples to counter the obvious success stories ... Goes to show you ... Can turn out in any number of ways.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

[jgb]

10 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

We are talking HOF in these three examples. Not mere success.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Ok so <10% chance Zach becomes a HOFer and >90% chance he sucks forever with nothing in between.

I think you need to hand off to someone else who advances arguments that support your position.

[Doggin94it]

Zach is progressing decently this camp. That doesn't make him not a bust. It does, I think, make it likely that the Jets will sign him to a two year extension at medium-end backup money plus incentives in the 2025 offseason, on the theory that Rodgers will likely retire after 2025 and Zach would get the first shot at the starter's job in 2026. That would be a win-win; Zach would get to stay in a context he's comfortable in, the Jets would get to take 2026 - the year they'll be eating a ton of dead Rodgers cap anyway - to see whether Zach can be a functional NFL starter after all that work they put into him. If he can, then he gets his third contract the next offseason. If he can't, they'll be picking high enough in the draft to  bring in somebody new and have reset their cap to begin building around that guy.

[Sperm Edwards]

11 hours ago, Maxman said:

This is what I was saying the other day. The 5th year option seems like a tough pill to swallow. So an extension for years 5 and 6 seems to be the best way to protect both parties.

I know people don't believe that the Jets still believe in this kid.  Saleh wants to be here for the long haul. This is all new to us because it has been fire the staff and repeat. Yet the same people that built the roster that is the talk of the league are in favor of this plan with Zach. I support them.

The 5th year option makes no sense unless they think someone else would offer him more than that as a FA following the 2024 season after watching him hold AR’s water for the prior two seasons, which itself followed so many on-field fails.

Like the joke about not having to outrun the bear, and just have to outrun the friend also running from it, they don’t have to offer something competitive with the 5th year option amount; just enough to make their offer more than another team’s offer, if they even want to.

Further, they’d get another full year to evaluate before committing to that decision, instead of locking into such a high amount early. That’s if they even decide they still want him after two more years. Right now there’s no decision, since his contract is fully guaranteed, so all they’re giving up is a roster spot they’re currently comfortable using on Tim Boyle.

[nycdan]

4 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Zach is progressing decently this camp. That doesn't make him not a bust. It does, I think, make it likely that the Jets will sign him to a two year extension at medium-end backup money plus incentives in the 2025 offseason, on the theory that Rodgers will likely retire after 2025 and Zach would get the first shot at the starter's job in 2026. That would be a win-win; Zach would get to stay in a context he's comfortable in, the Jets would get to take 2026 - the year they'll be eating a ton of dead Rodgers cap anyway - to see whether Zach can be a functional NFL starter after all that work they put into him. If he can, then he gets his third contract the next offseason. If he can't, they'll be picking high enough in the draft to  bring in somebody new and have reset their cap to begin building around that guy.

2026 season.  Zach Wilson starting at QB with Becton at LT.  Jets make playoffs.

Also the year that use of crystal meth among JN users skyrockets.

[Sperm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Zach is progressing decently this camp. That doesn't make him not a bust. It does, I think, make it likely that the Jets will sign him to a two year extension at medium-end backup money plus incentives in the 2025 offseason, on the theory that Rodgers will likely retire after 2025 and Zach would get the first shot at the starter's job in 2026. That would be a win-win; Zach would get to stay in a context he's comfortable in, the Jets would get to take 2026 - the year they'll be eating a ton of dead Rodgers cap anyway - to see whether Zach can be a functional NFL starter after all that work they put into him. If he can, then he gets his third contract the next offseason. If he can't, they'll be picking high enough in the draft to  bring in somebody new and have reset their cap to begin building around that guy.

IMO the best evidence they still have some belief in Wilson is that this whole offseason they haven’t seen fit to sign another QB and relegate Wilson to QB3 (nor even give him legitimate competition for the QB2 duties).

Boyle was an unserious acquisition and is/was unserious QB2 competition. I think he was signed in case the Rodgers trade negotiations pushed well past the draft, so there’d at least be a camp arm who already knew the offense cold while it was being installed new for everyone else who wasn’t an ex-Packer.

Once the Rodgers trade went through, Boyle’s value to the team plummeted, and they still saw fit to sign no one else. Say someone like Bridgewater (just to pick a name): since Boyle’s scheduled salary isn’t literally zero, and his signing bonus isn’t even a rounding error at $75K, Bridgewater or someone similar would have been about a $2MM cost upgrade.

Making no effort to sign such an additional backup QB is the action that matches the team’s words.

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The 5th year option makes no sense unless they think someone else would offer him more than that as a FA following the 2024 season after watching him hold AR’s water for the prior two seasons, which itself followed so many on-field fails.

Like the joke about not having to outrun the bear, and just have to outrun the friend also running from it, they don’t have to offer something competitive with the 5th year option amount; just enough to make their offer more than a other team’s offer.

Further, they’d get another full year to evaluate before committing to that decision, instead of locking into such a high amount early. That’s if they even decide they still want him after two more years. Right now there’s no decision, since his contract is fully guaranteed, so all they’re giving up is a roster spot they’re currently comfortable using on Tim Boyle.

The only way the Jets pick up that option is if Zach demonstrates material and sustainable starter qualities in live play this season. Based on @Jetsfan80 immense data set (giddity), roughly 1-in-20 highly drafted QB busts become a starting-level player at some point in their careers. Being very generous to Zach let's say he has a 5% chance to develop into that this year (even though such turnarounds, when they occur, tend to occur many years later). Historically 35% of starting QBs miss at least one game due to injury. So multiply the two figures by each other to approximate the odds that Rodgers misses at least a game giving Zach the opportunity to demonstrate to the league (creating possible competition for his services) that he has developed sufficiently and that he indeed has developed sufficiently.

5% x 35% = 1.75% chance that the Jets pick up Zach's 5th year option.

[Warfish]

42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

"Paradis was slightly mean with his post so his opinion is WRONG"

Not mean, he was too "definitive".  He stated his opinion as a fact. 

Clearly, that's something only Zach-true-believers are permitted to do here at JN.

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Not mean, he was too "definitive".  He stated his opinion as a fact. 

Clearly, that's something only Zach-true-believers are permitted to do here at JN.

Every post about a subject must contain your entire thesis about said subject with all attendant qualifiers, caveats and conditions lest you be semantic'd to death.

[Warfish]

7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

IMO the best evidence they still have some belief in Wilson is that this whole offseason they haven’t seen fit to sign another QB and relegate Wilson to QB3 (nor even give him legitimate competition for the QB2 duties).

Making no effort to sign such an additional backup QB is the action that matches the team’s words.

I think this touches on two separate, but related, items:

1. The Jets are "stuck" with Zach Wilson in 2023.  There was no scenario where it made financial sense to cut him for this season.  And if we're keeping him, we may as well try and see if he can be anything at this point.  That, and (IMO) JD still believes in the guy HE picked, or at least needs to show Ownership he does as part of earning his contract extension this year.  Rodgers is a well known Iron Man, who rarely misses time, and even a slightly hurt Rodgers is a huge upgrade over Wilson or some other Journeyman backup a la Bridgewater and his ilk.  So the risk is minimal, frankly.

2. Item 1. above does not in any way imply that the Jets or JD see Zach as "the future" here.  Anything beyond the scope of his current rookie contract, sans the 5th year option, or (IMO) anything after JD gets his multi-year contract extension, is purely TBD.  If Wilson shows he is massively better than his 2 years as worst starting QB in the NFL, the Jets may have interest in keeping in, depending on what other options exist for them at that time.  I don't think we can read long-term intent from short-term necessity.

The first moment we'll get a real idea of where JD stands is the start of 2024, and/or when the team has to decide on taking his fifth year option.