Sonny Werblin Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The proof is in the numbers. Just look at the draft for the past 20 or so years. Taking a QB with a top 9 pick is a total crapshoot with the odds stacked against you. Is it because the player sucks, the team he was drafted to sucks, he was thrust into the starting lineup from day 1, did not get coached well --- yeah it is probably some or all of those things. The fact is that it is difficult to evaluate QBs in the draft and taking one with a top 9 pick only fulfills the prophecy because you throw a speculative franchise QB into a terrible situation. Now, look back at the QBs taken with pick 10 and after. Suddenly, the team that drafts the player is not so sh*tty, and sometimes they are even a real good team. So, the QB is surrounded by good coaching and talented and knowledgeable veterans. There is no pressure to play the QB from day 1 because a guy taken at 10 or after is, for whatever reason, not viewed as a "savior". Who fits this description: Jackson, Purdy, Prescott, Flacco, Hurts, and Mahomes. Notably, these QBs suit up for the teams with 6 of the 8 best records in the NFL. When with these GM get a clue. Build the team, wait for the QB, and NEVER reach for a QB in the draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtina Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hahaha jets all by their lonesome at the left. This football perspective really hates us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Creepy Lurker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said: The proof is in the numbers. Just look at the draft for the past 20 or so years. Taking a QB with a top 9 pick is a total crapshoot with the odds stacked against you. Is it because the player sucks, the team he was drafted to sucks, he was thrust into the starting lineup from day 1, did not get coached well --- yeah it is probably some or all of those things. The fact is that it is difficult to evaluate QBs in the draft and taking one with a top 9 pick only fulfills the prophecy because you throw a speculative franchise QB into a terrible situation. Now, look back at the QBs taken with pick 10 and after. Suddenly, the team that drafts the player is not so sh*tty, and sometimes they are even a real good team. So, the QB is surrounded by good coaching and talented and knowledgeable veterans. There is no pressure to play the QB from day 1 because a guy taken at 10 or after is, for whatever reason, not viewed as a "savior". Who fits this description: Jackson, Purdy, Prescott, Flacco, Hurts, and Mahomes. Notably, these QBs suit up for the teams with 6 of the 8 best records in the NFL. When with these GM get a clue. Build the team, wait for the QB, and NEVER reach for a QB in the draft. My motto is now “ATD”. Always Trade Down. Draft capital is literally the most important thing and increases odds of hitting on picks or being able to trade for players. No falling in love with any player. Just trade down consistently and the rest will take care of it self. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 47 minutes ago, Creepy Lurker said: My motto is now “ATD”. Always Trade Down. Draft capital is literally the most important thing and increases odds of hitting on picks or being able to trade for players. No falling in love with any player. Just trade down consistently and the rest will take care of it self. I generally agree with trading down, but I don't agree at all with not falling in love with any player. That is how you get guys you know will work. The trade down theory landed us Mims, Morgan and Clark, while trading up got us Revis and Harris and more recently Breece Hall and AVT. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Creepy Lurker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said: I generally agree with trading down, but I don't agree at all with not falling in love with any player. That is how you get guys you know will work. The trade down theory landed us Mims, Morgan and Clark, while trading up got us Revis and Harris and more recently Breece Hall and AVT. I hear you but many busts at the top of the drop were due to falling in love with. I’m just not ready for that type of commitment in a relationship with a player. Only one night stands. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 33 minutes ago, Creepy Lurker said: I hear you but many busts at the top of the drop were due to falling in love with. I’m just not ready for that type of commitment in a relationship with a player. Only one night stands. I think you have to take kind of a "each year is its own thing" approach. Some draft classes are really deep and trading down makes sense. Some are really weak and it makes sense to move up for a guy you really like. And you also don't want to constantly take 75/50 cents on the dollar in a trade down just for the sake of trading down. It ends up a poor allocation of resources. If you stockpile picks in EVERY class, then you end up with a lot of middle/bottom of the roster guys but rarely get any stars. You also run into issues where you have to cut loose some bottom of the roster guys who end up studs but took a bit too long to develop, just in order to sign your draft picks. Stockpiling one year usually means you should look to trade up in the next draft class or the one after. It's an ebb and flow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said: The proof is in the numbers. Just look at the draft for the past 20 or so years. Taking a QB with a top 9 pick is a total crapshoot with the odds stacked against you. Is it because the player sucks, the team he was drafted to sucks, he was thrust into the starting lineup from day 1, did not get coached well --- yeah it is probably some or all of those things. The fact is that it is difficult to evaluate QBs in the draft and taking one with a top 9 pick only fulfills the prophecy because you throw a speculative franchise QB into a terrible situation. Now, look back at the QBs taken with pick 10 and after. Suddenly, the team that drafts the player is not so sh*tty, and sometimes they are even a real good team. So, the QB is surrounded by good coaching and talented and knowledgeable veterans. There is no pressure to play the QB from day 1 because a guy taken at 10 or after is, for whatever reason, not viewed as a "savior". Who fits this description: Jackson, Purdy, Prescott, Flacco, Hurts, and Mahomes. Notably, these QBs suit up for the teams with 6 of the 8 best records in the NFL. When with these GM get a clue. Build the team, wait for the QB, and NEVER reach for a QB in the draft. The thing is, with the Jets the reason they're picking at or around 10 or later is because of the defense. So while they may have been a better team on balance than one picking #s 1-3, the offense - and those charged with protecting the QB - was bad enough to be dead-last, so it's no more comforting of a situation to a young QB. Jets should stay away from a round 1 QB this year. There is no holding a clipboard behind Rodgers for 1-2 years because, with this OL, the rookie will be starting before September ends anyway. Then there'll be another QB failing under Hackett, who only works as an OC when he's had the game's most elite, experienced passer calling his own shots. Then he'll look like another bust QB pick, behind a twice-injured Rodgers, as the team then goes to search for GM/HC/OC replacements after this season. At least with a GM search anyone incoming would get a y1 mulligan, but good luck finding a HC thinking the best opportunity is getting a mulligan out of the gate. Draft a day 3 QB, pray he's the next Dak/Purdy, and accept in advance the odds are it's supremely unlikely and instead his upside is probably as the next Siemian. There will be other drafts with other QBs, and they may be in a better position to wait until next year (or the year after) before pulling a trigger earlier. No matter how much fans on a message board conveniently wish it so, they're not benching Aaron Rodgers for two years, let alone cutting him before then. As such, around top 10 overall in round 1 is way overkill for clipboard holding for that long, unless you literally draft the next Aaron Rodgers and have a HC-OC-QBC in place who's capable of overhauling so much of what he's doing wrong, never getting thrown in too early because there's an ironman at QB who never missed a game. But even back then, GB didn't draft Rodgers way up inside the top 10 and bench him for 2 seasons; tbh a good amount of inspiration was Favre already talking retirement, before agreeing last minute in March that he'd return. The plan wasn't to draft Rodgers and sit him and not let him start a game until his 4th season. Never mind the nature/nurture part of it, like there was no cliboard-holding/nurturing that turns the Jets' post-Pennington QB selections - from Kellen Clemens to Zach Wilson - into Aaron Rodgers, no matter how hard those guys threw. The other part of the nature/nurture is it seems unlikely Rodgers would've looked like HOF Rodgers as a rookie playing behind this sorry excuse for an OL with an OC who needs the QB to actually be the OC, and a HC who just signs off on it all because he can't help anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootballLove Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/1/2024 at 5:15 PM, FidelioJet said: The hits keep coming. Somewhere far above, 'Ol Leon is smiling ang giggling just a little too much. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/1/2024 at 5:22 PM, Anthony Jet said: If I’m reading that right Darnold was head and shoulders better than the others He was definitely the best of the Sanchez/Geno/Darnold/Wilson quadrafecta. But again, that's like saying which flavor or poop was the best tasting. It's all bad, but two (Sanchez and Darnold) at least has something to recommend them. Wilson is head and shoulders the worst of the four, even Geno looked better when he played here, and that's saying something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Creepy Lurker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said: I think you have to take kind of a "each year is its own thing" approach. Some draft classes are really deep and trading down makes sense. Some are really weak and it makes sense to move up for a guy you really like. And you also don't want to constantly take 75/50 cents on the dollar in a trade down just for the sake of trading down. It ends up a poor allocation of resources. If you stockpile picks in EVERY class, then you end up with a lot of middle/bottom of the roster guys but rarely get any stars. You also run into issues where you have to cut loose some bottom of the roster guys who end up studs but took a bit too long to develop, just in order to sign your draft picks. Stockpiling one year usually means you should look to trade up in the next draft class or the one after. It's an ebb and flow. You are 100% correct and I already know this but I’m just swinging the pendulum the complete opposite direction since no Jet GMs know how to do this AT ALL. I’d rather do it too much than not at all. You won’t have issues with signing draft picks if they are packaged together for moving up and/or trading for already established talent since you’ll have the cap space. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Jet Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Warfish said: He was definitely the best of the Sanchez/Geno/Darnold/Wilson quadrafecta. But again, that's like saying which flavor or poop was the best tasting. It's all bad, but two (Sanchez and Darnold) at least has something to recommend them. Wilson is head and shoulders the worst of the four, even Geno looked better when he played here, and that's saying something. Who wants to taste poop? Amazing how wrong we get the picks. I am not a geno fan by any measure but he wasn’t even a first rounder, not really fair he gets lumped in with two top 5 picks and a top 10 pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Anthony Jet said: Who wants to taste poop? Woody, apparently. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18 minutes ago, Creepy Lurker said: You are 100% correct and I already know this but I’m just swinging the pendulum the complete opposite direction since no Jet GMs know how to do this AT ALL. I’d rather do it too much than not at all. You won’t have issues with signing draft picks if they are packaged together for moving up and/or trading for already established talent since you’ll have the cap space. You’re describing the Parcells/Belichick approach so it HAS been done before… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chirorob Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 hours ago, #27TheDominator said: I generally agree with trading down, but I don't agree at all with not falling in love with any player. That is how you get guys you know will work. The trade down theory landed us Mims, Morgan and Clark, while trading up got us Revis and Harris and more recently Breece Hall and AVT. Trading up got AVT, if you had said before the draft we are using a 1st and 2 3rds for a guard, I would not have been thrilled. Trading up also got Shonn Greene back in the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said: You’re describing the Parcells/Belichick approach so it HAS been done before… Yay! Let's pass on two HOF LTs for an inside LB that we can misuse for 4 1/2 years and then watch walk to a very successful career! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 38 minutes ago, chirorob said: Trading up got AVT, if you had said before the draft we are using a 1st and 2 3rds for a guard, I would not have been thrilled. Trading up also got Shonn Greene back in the day. Yes. I was not in love with the move. Darrisaw seems like he would have been fine and we would have had the two thirds. I guess we wouldn't want Mond, but Nico Collins would have been nice. A bunch of the guys from around there were not particularly good though - Mayfield, Ben Cleveland. I question the move for Breece as well. The player seems great, but IMO they probably should have rolled the dice and not moved up, or not moved up for Johnson in which case they have already had that pick. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 hours ago, Anthony Jet said: Who wants to taste poop? Amazing how wrong we get the picks. I am not a geno fan by any measure but he wasn’t even a first rounder, not really fair he gets lumped in with two top 5 picks and a top 10 pick They were all top 5 picks. Sanchez was 5. Darnold 3. Wilson 2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Jet Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 hours ago, #27TheDominator said: They were all top 5 picks. Sanchez was 5. Darnold 3. Wilson 2. For some reason I thought Sanchez was a 7th pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neckdemon Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/1/2024 at 5:15 PM, FidelioJet said: The hits keep coming. oh yes we will. just wait till we draft our next qb in the first next year. he will suck ass also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSOJ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/1/2024 at 3:45 PM, Jetsfan80 said: 16 TDs, 16 INTs and 15 fumbles in his 2 years in Carolina. Benched twice for PJ Walker. So, ya know, he was stellar. Just stellar. Their OL was worst then ours... the CS was as bad as this one so there is that also. BTW, he is the Bup QB on the 49ners so there is that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, AZSOJ said: Their OL was worst then ours... the CS was as bad as this one so there is that also. BTW, he is the Bup QB on the 49ners so there is that. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Thornburgh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/2/2024 at 7:18 PM, derp said: This doesn't even include Hackenberg in the middle who was so bad he couldn't even make his way on the field. There’s also Petty who actually started and was brutal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Thornburgh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 hours ago, AZSOJ said: Their OL was worst then ours... the CS was as bad as this one so there is that also. BTW, he is the Bup QB on the 49ners so there is that. The panthers are having a ton of success just ask Bryce Young and their owner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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