SB came down to this

[greenwichjetfan]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this level of concern over paying a player after their second season. He’s going to play on his rookie deal next year and the 49ers will be the favorite to win the NFC again. They don’t even have to extend him next year either. I don’t recall hearing this about Hurts and his advanced metrics were way lower than Purdys. And now the Eagles actually do have a major problem on their hands. 
 

The 49ers are well run and have drafted well for a while now. If we’re going to narrow everything down to one game, then we have to do it for the other QBs too. it seems like we are creating problems for this specific player when all he’s done to date is put up monster numbers and win. 

It's ok for others to have the viewpoint that he's played his role very well till now but that there could be cause for concern if his role were to change dramatically when all of his all-pro teammates are no longer around.

No one is talking about extending him next year or the year after, although it's silly that you think Purdy's management isn't going to hold out for a real contract this offseason.

I actually did raise very similar concerns about Hurts, and Daniel Jones before that. Have a gander, use the search function.

Who's narrowing anything or everything down to 1 game? The ranks below are the full 2023 NFL season.

"Monster numbers" means that either you're incapable of understanding areas of concern in the rankings below, or you're simply turning a blind eye to them. The fact that you didn't address them directly after making (IMO) bogus claims of Purdy having the greatest statistical start in NFL history tells me you're turning that blind eye. So go ahead, have at it! 

1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

• 49ers had the least attempted pass plays, the 8th most attempted run plays, and CMC had the most weighted opportunities in '23
• Purdy had the most attempted play-action plays of '23
• Purdy had the 16th most air yards in the league but had the highest YACs/completion of '23.
• The 49ers had the second fewest drops of all teams in '23, but Purdy threw the 17th most interceptable passes in '23.

 

[greenwichjetfan]

50 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I think this is the key here.

It's not that the other phases of the game/parts of the team don't matter. 

But what's more to the point here is what was the most important contributing factor to the win? It was Mahomes. Having a truly elite quarterback in this league, especially with the rule changes of the last twenty years, is by far the most important variable in any game.

Purdy is good, but if he and Mahomes switched teams, the win/loss record of both would change drastically and the 49ers would have a dynasty.

I've tried not to directly compare Mahomes and Purdy so far in this thread, but screw it:

Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill and Honeybadger amongst others and promptly won back to back SBs.

If the entire team remains intact but CMC pulls an Aaron Rodgers and misses all but 4 plays of next season, is Purdy even a top 15 QB next year? Do the 49ers even make it to the playoffs, let alone the SB?

[Matt39]

17 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

It's ok for others to have the viewpoint that he's played his role very well till now but that there could be cause for concern if his role were to change dramatically when all of his all-pro teammates are no longer around.

No one is talking about extending him next year or the year after, although it's silly that you think Purdy's management isn't going to hold out for a real contract this offseason.

I actually did raise very similar concerns about Hurts, and Daniel Jones before that. Have a gander, use the search function.

Who's narrowing anything or everything down to 1 game? The ranks below are the full 2023 NFL season.

"Monster numbers" means that either you're incapable of understanding areas of concern in the rankings below, or you're simply turning a blind eye to them. The fact that you didn't address them directly after making (IMO) bogus claims of Purdy having the greatest statistical start in NFL history tells me you're turning that blind eye. So go ahead, have at it! 

 

He’s put up monster numbers over his first 21 NFL starts and compares to some of the best starts for quarterbacks in NFL history. Add on a NFC Champ appearance and SB appearance. The overall body of work is excellent. 

i guess, what are the areas of concern? They have McCafrey, giving him the ball is a good thing. Unless you think Purdys efficiency would plummet if he had to throw more, but I don’t see any indication of that. He was first in DVOA and DYAR which attempts to control for these things. 

Play Action? Ok. Not sure the negative there if it works. Unless we are penalizing him for future scenarios that haven’t happened yet. 

Purdy throws a good ball, I don’t see penalizing him for that as a great metric and interceptable passes as a metric has been discussed to death here and it’s extremely subjective. 
 

Lastly, he was 8th overall in completed air yards (good, imo), 2nd in completed air yards per completion (very good) and 1st in completed air yards per pass attempt. He hasn’t struggled throwing the ball down the field. In fact, he’s been good.
 

we can revisit this, but I’d be surprised if he stages a holdout this offseason. And if he doesn’t have the leverage, then I guess we can see how easily the Niners replace him. 

[greenwichjetfan]

22 hours ago, Matt39 said:

He’s put up monster numbers over his first 21 NFL starts and compares to some of the best starts for quarterbacks in NFL history. Add on a NFC Champ appearance and SB appearance. The overall body of work is excellent. 

i guess, what are the areas of concern? They have McCafrey, giving him the ball is a good thing. Unless you think Purdys efficiency would plummet if he had to throw more, but I don’t see any indication of that. He was first in DVOA and DYAR which attempts to control for these things. 

Play Action? Ok. Not sure the negative there if it works. Unless we are penalizing him for future scenarios that haven’t happened yet. 

Purdy throws a good ball, I don’t see penalizing him for that as a great metric and interceptable passes as a metric has been discussed to death here and it’s extremely subjective. 
 

Lastly, he was 8th overall in completed air yards (good, imo), 2nd in completed air yards per completion (very good) and 1st in completed air yards per pass attempt. He hasn’t struggled throwing the ball down the field. In fact, he’s been good.
 

we can revisit this, but I’d be surprised if he stages a holdout this offseason. And if he doesn’t have the leverage, then I guess we can see how easily the Niners replace him. 

Yes, losing both efficiency and productivity are exactly what my concern would be for Purdy if he loses his first ballot HoF RB in his prime.

Read some of those ranking again: Mccaffrey touched the ball more than any other non-QB in the league on important downs. He also produced at ridiculously high levels. Even when CMC wasn't in the game, Brock was handing off to Kjuszczyk or Ayuik or Deebo which explains the 49ers ranking 8th in the league in runs from scrimmage. They also had the second best game script in 2024 meaning Brock wasn't asked to do much because his defense was stellar, and this is further validated by the fact that the 49ers were ranked dead last in the league in pass attempts.

Of course all of this matters when we're talking about how a defense is supposed to prepare to play the 49ers offense. They're going to key in on the run and screen games and their safeties are going to sell out more on play fakes which allows the all-pro talent at WR1, WR2 and TE1 to get wide open against single man or wide zones, and ultimately makes those reads and throws easier for Brock. So while your air yards ranks look good on paper, I would love to see them broken out further into air yards per play-action attempt vs air yards per non-play-action attempt. 

I'm not saying Brock hasn't played great in his role to date, nor am I saying the 49ers need to move on from him. This is not as black and white as you have tried so hard to make it all thread. All I'm saying (just like I did in my first two posts) is that while he's been great in his role, his role will change eventually, and when it does, there is very real cause for concern that he's going to face a hard regression because a big payday for him means less money for his HOF RB, HOF TE, and AP WR1 and AP WR2. 

 

[Matt39]

3 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Yes, losing both efficiency and productivity are exactly what my concern would be for Purdy if he loses his first ballot HoF RB in his prime.

Read some of those ranking again: Mccaffrey touched the ball more than any other non-QB in the league on important downs. He also produced at ridiculously high levels. Even when CMC wasn't in the game, Brock was handing off to Kjuszczyk or Ayuik or Deebo which explains the 49ers ranking 8th in the league in runs from scrimmage. They also had the second best game script in 2024 meaning Brock wasn't asked to do much because his defense was stellar, and this is further validated by the fact that the 49ers were ranked dead last in the league in pass attempts.

Of course all of this matters when we're talking about how a defense is supposed to prepare to play the 49ers offense. They're going to key in on the run and screen games and their safeties are going to sell out more on play fakes which allows the all-pro talent at WR1, WR2 and TE1 to get wide open against single man or wide zones, and ultimately makes those reads and throws easier for Brock. So while your air yards ranks look good on paper, I would love to see them broken out further into air yards per play-action attempt vs air yards per non-play-action attempt. 

I'm not saying Brock hasn't played great in his role to date, nor am I saying the 49ers need to move on from him. This is not as black and white as you have tried so hard to make it all thread. All I'm saying (just like I did in my first two posts) is that while he's been great in his role, his role will change eventually, and when it does, there is very real cause for concern that he's going to face a hard regression because a big payday for him means less money for his HOF RB, HOF TE, and AP WR1 and AP WR2. 

 

🤷‍♂️

[Jethead]

Mahomes is, imo, the best to ever do it. Will he keep it up for 15 more years? I doubt it but time will tell. How you can give him points is beyond my understanding. 

Purdy played better vs KC than any other playoff QB this year. I was surprised 

SF got outclassed. Shanny spit the bit. Spags made the hall of fame on Sunday.

[greenwichjetfan]

13 hours ago, Matt39 said:

🤷‍♂️

Weak reply. I've stated in all of my posts that Brock has been good great. No one is arguing that, and you know it.

Just so we're clear - the hill you're willing to die on is: it makes no difference that Brock Purdy gets to play with HOF RB, HOF TE, AP WR1, AP WR2, AP FB1; and that he should be paid as a top 5 QB and will continue to be a top 5/MVP candidate QB even after his payday when he loses talent around him. 

[JohnnyLV]

On 2/12/2024 at 5:52 AM, More Cowbell said:

Pass protection and offensive scheme. Purdy had open recievers all day. The 9ers OL couldn't  handle the KC pass rush. They also didn't  adjust to the pass rush calling plays like screens and quick passes. 

SB mostly came down to a missed extra point.

[Matt39]

30 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Weak reply. I've stated in all of my posts that Brock has been good great. No one is arguing that, and you know it.

Just so we're clear - the hill you're willing to die on is: it makes no difference that Brock Purdy gets to play with HOF RB, HOF TE, AP WR1, AP WR2, AP FB1; and that he should be paid as a top 5 QB and will continue to be a top 5/MVP candidate QB even after his payday when he loses talent around him. 

I expect Brock Purdy to be really good regardless of who his teammates are. Same thing with Joe Burrow. 

[bicketybam]

If I had a choice of Burrow or Purdy, I'm not even thinking twice. Burrow all the way, even with the injury history. I don't even think it's close.

[PFSIKH]

11 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

I expect Brock Purdy to be really good regardless of who his teammates are. Same thing with Joe Burrow. 

I was generally surprised by his performance.

With that being said, can he be great? I agree he will be good.  I just think he is closer to his ceiling than he has room to grow.

Is he ultimately, a Drew Brees fringe Top 5 guy that is a really good QB.  Or is he Dak which is still a good QB and nice to have, but more of a fringe Top 10 guy.  The latter which was better when he was not getting paid.

 

 

[Warfish]

@greenwichjetfan is really hitting everything I've been thinking, nice work.  Nothing really to add at this point, but +1 to him.

[greenwichjetfan]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

I expect Brock Purdy to be really good regardless of who his teammates are. Same thing with Joe Burrow. 

Fair enough. I think there's reason for concern and backed it up with analysis. I don't understand at all why you feel it's so out of bounds to have that concern even if you have confidence in your viewpoint.

[Matt39]

4 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Fair enough. I think there's reason for concern and backed it up with analysis. I don't understand at all why you feel it's so out of bounds to have that concern even if you have confidence in your viewpoint.

I don’t think it was out of bounds. I have backed my points up with analysis too. All we can do is see how it plays out. I will say though, I’d be shocked if he holds out this offseason. 

[Matt39]

15 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

I was generally surprised by his performance.

With that being said, can he be great? I agree he will be good.  I just think he is closer to his ceiling than he has room to grow.

Is he ultimately, a Drew Brees fringe Top 5 guy that is a really good QB.  Or is he Dak which is still a good QB and nice to have, but more of a fringe Top 10 guy.  The latter which was better when he was not getting paid.

 

 

 I think he can be great and sustain what he’s doing. I was blown away watching him last year in a short sample and the fact he’s continued this leads me to believe he’s the real deal. His ability to spot coverages, innate pocket movement, and his arm ability on those chunk throws down the field I think the Brees comparison is a good one. He’s a top 5 borderline top 5 guy for me going into next season.

[Green Ghost]

16 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

I was generally surprised by his performance.

With that being said, can he be great? I agree he will be good.  I just think he is closer to his ceiling than he has room to grow.

Is he ultimately, a Drew Brees fringe Top 5 guy that is a really good QB.  Or is he Dak which is still a good QB and nice to have, but more of a fringe Top 10 guy.  The latter which was better when he was not getting paid.

 

 

????
Is either of those two options (top 5 or top 10) a bad thing?

[greenwichjetfan]

8 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

I was generally surprised by his performance.

With that being said, can he be great? I agree he will be good.  I just think he is closer to his ceiling than he has room to grow.

Is he ultimately, a Drew Brees fringe Top 5 guy that is a really good QB.  Or is he Dak which is still a good QB and nice to have, but more of a fringe Top 10 guy.  The latter which was better when he was not getting paid.

 

 

I'm not even concerned with ceiling at this point. I think it's clear Brock has reached his ceiling. His 2024 season was not just great, it was all-time great from a Y/A, AY/A, DVOA standpoint. The only player in the SB era to post a higher Y/A was Kurt Warner in 2020.

My issue is that I don't see repeatability. I see a 2018 Case Keenum regression in Brock way more than I see a Brady/Mahomes consistency in him. The way Matt's talking with "monster numbers" and "greatest start to NFL career", I guess he's seeing the Brady/Mahomes consistency, and we're all wrong for questioning it.

 

[Green Ghost]

13 hours ago, Jethead said:

Mahomes is, imo, the best to ever do it. Will he keep it up for 15 more years? I doubt it but time will tell. How you can give him points is beyond my understanding. 

Purdy played better vs KC than any other playoff QB this year. I was surprised 

SF got outclassed. Shanny spit the bit. Spags made the hall of fame on Sunday.

It’s not just you, but I’m amazed by some of the post game analysis here.

The game came down to two things, a missed extra point, and KC holding the 49ers to a FG inside the 10 on their OT possession.

Neither team “outclassed” the other. In fact, the game was nip and tuck throughout the second half with both teams exchanging the lead.

[WeCantDraftGoodQBs]

I think Greenlaw getting hurt changed how SF's defense played. Before Greenlaw got hurt their LBs were swarming to the ball on every play and effectively shutting down KC's offensive.

Deebo was already playing hurt coming into the game and then he got hurt again during the game which made him a non-factor. When Deebo has been healthy he has made a big difference in their offensive production.

 

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, Green Ghost said:

????
Is either of those two options (top 5 or top 10) a bad thing?

Yeah I mean unless we’re just conceding that no one is ever going to beat Mahomes I think it’s pretty apparent you can win a Super Bowl with Purdy, Goff and those in the 5-10 range. Lamar would be the one outlier just because we have a fairly large sample of him not playing well in the playoffs. 

[PFSIKH]

4 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I'm not even concerned with ceiling at this point. I think it's clear Brock has reached his ceiling. His 2024 season was not just great, it was all-time great from a Y/A, AY/A, DVOA standpoint. The only player in the SB era to post a higher Y/A was Kurt Warner in 2020.

My issue is that I don't see repeatability. I see a 2018 Case Keenum regression in Brock way more than I see a Brady/Mahomes consistency in him. The way Matt's talking with "monster numbers" and "greatest start to NFL career", I guess he's seeing the Brady/Mahomes consistency, and we're all wrong for questioning it.

 

I do not necessarily disagree.  

I am like 95% there.  I am just giving him some room to grow.  He played five games and was injured.  Reportedly, did not have too much training this past offseason due to his elbow injury.  I am giving him the benefit of the doubt with a full offseason to train.

He is not going to grow any taller.  Ultimately, I think he will be in the 5-10 range.  

 

4 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

????
Is either of those two options (top 5 or top 10) a bad thing?

When Zach or Mac Jones is your QB...no.    😢

Seriously, I think there is an inverse scale of things you need to go right for a team to win a Superbowl.  The Dak's need a lot.  The Mahomes can carry their team.  

 

4 hours ago, Matt39 said:

 I think he can be great and sustain what he’s doing. I was blown away watching him last year in a short sample and the fact he’s continued this leads me to believe he’s the real deal. His ability to spot coverages, innate pocket movement, and his arm ability on those chunk throws down the field I think the Brees comparison is a good one. He’s a top 5 borderline top 5 guy for me going into next season.

I see him in the 5-10 range.  I was impressed with his Superbowl.  I did not think he would play as well.

It will be interesting to see how high he can ascend.  

 

[Warfish]

4 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I was blown away watching him last year in a short sample and the fact he’s continued this leads me to believe he’s the real deal.

Honest question:  Were you "blown away" by his personal play in the Super Bowl?

[Matt39]

8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Honest question:  Were you "blown away" by his personal play in the Super Bowl?

No not really. Chiefs D peaked at the right time. I thought he was better than all of the other AFC QBs in the playoffs though

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

No not really.

Ok, great.  Common ground.  I like it.

[Green Ghost]

Jet fans: 2nd year RB Breece Hall coming off an ACL, “he got robbed!should’ve been CBPOY!”
 

Also Jet fans:  2nd year QB Brock Purdy loses the Super Bowl in OT (to Mahomes no less) coming off elbow surgery. “He sucks! Low ceiling!”

[section314]

8 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

No not really. Chiefs D peaked at the right time. I thought he was better than all of the other AFC QBs in the playoffs though

Purdy did fine but he will take missing that guy wide open in the end zone by 20 ft to his grave.

[Green Ghost]

9 minutes ago, section314 said:

Purdy did fine but he will take missing that guy wide open in the end zone by 20 ft to his grave.

Happens to all of them. Rodgers last pass as a Packer? Int to kill their chance for the playoffs.

Brady… pick 6 on his last pass.

The great ones have no conscience, and a selective memory.

[Hex]

On 2/13/2024 at 3:10 PM, greenwichjetfan said:

I've tried not to directly compare Mahomes and Purdy so far in this thread, but screw it:

Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill and Honeybadger amongst others and promptly won back to back SBs.

If the entire team remains intact but CMC pulls an Aaron Rodgers and misses all but 4 plays of next season, is Purdy even a top 15 QB next year? Do the 49ers even make it to the playoffs, let alone the SB?

Niners make the playoffs, but don't do much. Their defense is good enough and the rest of the offense is still pretty good. CMC takes them to another level.

[greenwichjetfan]

21 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Jet fans: 2nd year RB Breece Hall coming off an ACL, “he got robbed!should’ve been CBPOY!”
 

Also Jet fans:  2nd year QB Brock Purdy loses the Super Bowl in OT (to Mahomes no less) coming off elbow surgery. “He sucks! Low ceiling!”

Find me this post or anything inferring that in this thread. Quote it, tag me in it, whatever. I want to see it.

And what does an RB or cbpoty have to do with anything being discussed here? 

[Hex]

24 minutes ago, section314 said:

Purdy did fine but he will take missing that guy wide open in the end zone by 20 ft to his grave.

Eh missing players by 20 feet happens in every super bowl the Niners play against the Chiefs. Remember when Jimmy G overthrew Emmanuel Sanders?

[Matt39]

13 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Happens to all of them. Rodgers last pass as a Packer? Int to kill their chance for the playoffs.

Brady… pick 6 on his last pass.

The great ones have no conscience, and a selective memory.

Jordan Love is that guy too imo 

[T0mShane]

5 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

It’s not just you, but I’m amazed by some of the post game analysis here.

The game came down to two things, a missed extra point, and KC holding the 49ers to a FG inside the 10 on their OT possession.

Neither team “outclassed” the other. In fact, the game was nip and tuck throughout the second half with both teams exchanging the lead.

The game came down to the Niners getting pressure on Mahomes late and Mahomes overcoming it with his legs and his brain vs when the Chiefs pressured Purdy late, he mostly couldn’t overcome it because there just aren’t a lot of tools in that toolbox. Those two passes he sailed to wide open guys are passes the elite guys drop in there, and when Spagnuolo sent the blitz on third and four in OT, the corner batted it down because Purdy is 6’1” standing on his tip toes. 3 for 12 on third down in the game, all told. Purdy is Tua, and both guys are going to leave you wanting despite the gaudy stats.

[Larz]

Reid and spags are basically the best in the business.  Normally spags would leave for a HC gig at this point, but he’s been there done that and seems happy to be winning with the chiefs. 
 

Very rare dynamic having 2 guys on a staff that good. Success almost always breaks up a staff. 

[Green Ghost]

3 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Find me this post or anything inferring that in this thread. Quote it, tag me in it, whatever. I want to see it.

 

[Hex]

52 minutes ago, Larz said:

Reid and spags are basically the best in the business.  Normally spags would leave for a HC gig at this point, but he’s been there done that and seems happy to be winning with the chiefs. 
 

Very rare dynamic having 2 guys on a staff that good. Success almost always breaks up a staff. 

If the offense keeps up even in the regular season the Chiefs could easily win a 3rd in a row