When Big QB Contracts Backfire: Are Teams Paying the Price?

[August]

I’m paying Purdy based on who he is; not because he’s a QB, so no I’m not giving him 60 million a year. 

[nycdan]

Next year is going to be interesting then.  I would be surprised if he took anything less than Dak, especially if they make the playoffs again this year (fairly safe bet at this moment).  I mean, his agent is gonna point to his record, his postseason success, and his stats and say, who else has done this over the last 2.5 years.  It's a pretty short list.

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, jgb said:

I smell a bet. Let’s do it

Honestly I don’t strongly believe he’ll let Purdy walk, only saying if any GM has the caché and the balls to let a QB like him walk it would be Lynch and maybe a couple on his level.  And there would be a few good reasons to do so.

That said I’m always down to donate some losing bets to charity so let’s do it, lol.

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Honestly I don’t strongly believe he’ll let Purdy walk, only saying if any GM has the caché to do so it would be Lynch and maybe a couple others like him.  And there would be a few good reasons to do so.

That said I’m always down to donate some losing bets to charity so let’s do it, lol.

Exactly. Wallet is always smarter than the mouth. Purdy will resign for top 5 QB money. 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jgb said:

Exactly. Wallet is always smarter than the mouth. Purdy will resign for top 5 QB money. 

Probably, I guess what I was arguing was more of a “maybe he should” rather than making a prediction.  

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Probably, I guess what I was arguing was more of a “maybe he should” rather than making a prediction.  

It’s all fun to speculate but you know me I yank people back to reality every chance I can. Forgive me brother, it’s my nature.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

It’s all fun to speculate but you know me I yank people back to reality every chance I can. Forgive me brother, it’s my nature.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Such a breath of fresh air to interact with a non moron 

[Doggin94it]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

You extend him ASAP on a deal that would look cheap in 3 years.

Exactly. But if he looks bad this year, you don't give him the 60M per he'll get off another good year

[Doggin94it]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

I think you’re creating obstacles to prove a point. I do not expect Purdy to demand to set the record for highest paid QB.

I do, actually - assuming he has another great year. He'll have been absurdly underpaid for 3 years as a 7th round pick, no reason at all to take less than top of market money as a FA. 

[slimjasi]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Maybe.  But he also might realize you can get close to a championship but maybe never secure one with a B- QB.  Purdy is right on that borderline where maybe he can only get you so close. 

And when he starts getting the big money, it of course gets much harder.

I think Purdy is good but the 49ers are so loaded that it's tricky. 

I feel like the 49ers will almost definitely pay him, unless he suddenly regresses this year. 

[Blackout]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

Everyone says they love defense but then calls low scoring games “boring.”

Points sell.

Those casuals can go watch the NBA if they want high scoring games

 

We want NFL Football.  Not arena league flag football.

[Anthony Jet]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

Everyone says they love defense but then calls low scoring games “boring.”

Points sell.

Theres a difference between a good defensive game and just a bad game. Both low scoring. One much more entertaining than the other 

[doitny]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It'll be interesting to see what Lynch does, given that he has a lot of job security there.  Whatever he decides to do, ownership will support, so if he opts to let Purdy walk, they'll let him (albeit they may push back a little).

with Darnold and Lance gone there is no body they got to replace Purdy. you would think if that was the plan they would have kept one of them and kept developing them. 

they have no choice but to pay Purdy. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, doitny said:

with Darnold and Lance gone there is no body they got to replace Purdy. you would think if that was the plan they would have kept one of them and kept developing them. 

they have no choice but to pay Purdy. 

[jgb]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Got into it with a certain mod here who said Mahomes’ 10 year contract was going to break the chiefs. I said it actually makes him underpaid for his contribution. 2 rings later with more likely to come….

[jgb]

6 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

I do, actually - assuming he has another great year. He'll have been absurdly underpaid for 3 years as a 7th round pick, no reason at all to take less than top of market money as a FA. 

I just get the sense from him that he’ll accept a little less to help the Niners keep the band together. Could absolutely be wrong.

[jgb]

5 hours ago, Blackout said:

Those casuals can go watch the NBA if they want high scoring games

 

We want NFL Football.  Not arena league flag football.

I hear you but I’ve called it out here even where posters who say they love  low-scoring defensive battles later call the highest scoring games of the year that season’s best games.

I’m not digging on anyone, just suggesting there is some social value to proclaiming a love of defensive battles but when push comes to shove the brain likes the dopamine hit of watching scoring plays.

[Dunnie]

Exactly.  For 3 key reasons:  1) If you don't pay him, someone else will; 2) Starting over at QB is incredibly difficult; and 3) Only a handful of GM's in the league have enough job security to survive multiple failed QB's - thus, its easier to just pay the guy they have and kick that can down the road if he ends up sucking.  Getting rid of the QB and then messing up on his replacement spells doom.  

It's just a weird thing that every QB contract that comes set a new record. They aren't being paid based on their relative skill but more out of fear of loss. You know?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

It's just a weird thing that every QB contract that comes set a new record. They aren't being paid based on their relative skill but more out of fear of loss. You know?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

When only like 12 people on the planet at any given time can play the position at a contending level, you hang on to the one you got if you think he's anything close to that level. 

And even hedging your bets leads to criticism, much like it did when the Packers took Love with Rodgers under contract and most recently the Falcons taking Penix.

No matter what they say in public or to the owner, most GM's are chasing job security, not greatness.  Winning 9-10 games a year is a way to ensure that.

[EM31]

17 hours ago, jgb said:

Such a breath of fresh air to interact with a non moron 

This is getting a bit weird.  Not that there is anything wrong with it mind you.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, EM31 said:

This is getting a bit weird.  Not that there is anything wrong with it mind you.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, EM31 said:

This is getting a bit weird.  Not that there is anything wrong with it mind you.

JF80 has a sexy brain… among other things 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

JF80 has a next brain… among other things 

[EM31]

Given how well Goff has played since he left LA and the resurgent 2nd careers of Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr.... Maybe the trick is to find the right cast-off and spin straw into gold.  Certainly this approach is less costly if you make the wrong bet.

There is always someone floating around.  Fitzmagic played pretty well for several teams.  Just don't ever give him that 2nd deal.  Vinnie was a reclamation project when we got him back in the day and the list goes on.

If this becomes a strategy rather than a hasty plan-B then your team might have an extra $40M per year to make the rest of the roster better.

[jgb]

25 minutes ago, EM31 said:

Given how well Goff has played since he left LA and the resurgent 2nd careers of Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr.... Maybe the trick is to find the right cast-off and spin straw into gold.  Certainly this approach is less costly if you make the wrong bet.

There is always someone floating around.  Fitzmagic played pretty well for several teams.  Just don't ever give him that 2nd deal.  Vinnie was a reclamation project when we got him back in the day and the list goes on.

If this becomes a strategy rather than a hasty plan-B then your team might have an extra $40M per year to make the rest of the roster better.

Teams should pursue all avenues until they find “the guy.” Draft early, dart throw late, FAs, trade. Never stop swinging.

[EM31]

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

Teams should pursue all avenues until they find “the guy.” Draft early, dart throw late, FAs, trade. Never stop swinging.

Drafting is a crapshoot at the top of the draft.  We are not the only ones to come up dry on this and we won't be the last.

The biggest problem for teams who draft a QB at the very top has been the pressure to play that player right away.  Often right away turns out to be too soon.  Fans, media, ownership all want to see the shiny new toy right away.  Stroud was great but for every Stroud there are probably dozens of Sam Darnolds or Zach Wilsons or even Bryce Youngs who might be permanently damaged by throwing them out there too soon.

Sooner or later you might argue Zach Wilson was never going to have the light go on and my argument to that is at least you find out that truth without costing your team games or in our case even seasons worth of terrible QB play.  If we ever get a high draft pick again I think the team should make it clear that he will sit until he is deemed to be ready and that he heeds to win the job in practice first.

With that said I agree you can never have enough developmental guys because the next one just might be the one.  I am100% in favor of drafting one or more of them every year because one of them my end up working out.

In general my post was in favor of adopting with the QB a kind of Denver Broncos RB type approach.  With the rest of the system in place Denver showed that almost any old running back can be enough of a star to get the job done.  What they also showed was that your team does not need to overpay at the RB position.   What if a team consciously did the same thing at QB?   Save maybe $40M per year which can be used elsewhere to put the rest of "the system" in place to succeed.

Alternatively we could follow what everyone else is doing.

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, EM31 said:

Drafting is a crapshoot at the top of the draft.  We are not the only ones to come up dry on this and we won't be the last.

The biggest problem for teams who draft a QB at the very top has been the pressure to play that player right away.  Often right away turns out to be too soon.  Fans, media, ownership all want to see the shiny new toy right away.  Stroud was great but for every Stroud there are probably dozens of Sam Darnolds or Zach Wilsons or even Bryce Youngs who might be permanently damaged by throwing them out there too soon.

Sooner or later you might argue Zach Wilson was never going to have the light go on and my argument to that is at least you find out that truth without costing your team games or in our case even seasons worth of terrible QB play.  If we ever get a high draft pick again I think the team should make it clear that he will sit until he is deemed to be ready and that he heeds to win the job in practice first.

With that said I agree you can never have enough developmental guys because the next one just might be the one.  I am100% in favor of drafting one or more of them every year because one of them my end up working out.

In general my post was in favor of adopting with the QB a kind of Denver Broncos RB type approach.  With the rest of the system in place Denver showed that almost any old running back can be enough of a star to get the job done.  What they also showed was that your team does not need to overpay at the RB position.   What if a team consciously did the same thing at QB?   Save maybe $40M per year which can be used elsewhere to put the rest of "the system" in place to succeed.

Alternatively we could follow what everyone else is doing.

All of this is true yet you still have dramatically better odds to hit a FQB in first 2 rounds. What SF did was perfect. Drafted one early (Lance), one late (Purdy), and kept bringing in FAs each year (Garraopolo, Darnold) until they hit a FQB.

[funaz]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

It's just a weird thing that every QB contract that comes set a new record. They aren't being paid based on their relative skill but more out of fear of loss. You know?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Contracts always will go up as long as the salary cap continues to go up. If you want to see an increase in contracts look at the % of the cap allocated to QBs now vs 10 years ago.

[funaz]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

All of this is true yet you still have dramatically better odds to hit a FQB in first 2 rounds. What SF did was perfect. Drafted one early (Lance), one late (Purdy), and kept bringing in FAs each year (Garraopolo, Darnold) until they hit a FQB.

Actually, I believe more FQBs come from rounds 3-5 than they do from round 2. 

If you want a FQB you get it in round 1, or develop/luck into one from the later rounds.

[jgb]

21 minutes ago, funaz said:

Actually, I believe more FQBs come from rounds 3-5 than they do from round 2. 

If you want a FQB you get it in round 1, or develop/luck into one from the later rounds.

Not disputing and would love to see the data, although it's not apples to apples to compare 1 round to 3. It's kind of like when people say (correctly) that more starters are UDFAs than round 7 picks. Yeah, well every team brings in like 8 UDFAs every year.

But the second sentence I think is airtight.

[Bobby816]

It's the most important position in the sport. When you find a good one you keep them. QBs can also have up and down times in there career and even within a year.

I live here in DAL at Dak was hated by fans here for awhile, but after last year were totally good paying him. Now they regret it. It's 2 games RELAX.

 

If you want to learn anything... is don't just pay the QB and don't care about the rest of the offense. You have to still invest there, Whether it be money or draft picks. The QB is just 1 player, but if you don't have an OL and weapons for the. They aren't the same.

[Jetsfan80]

43 minutes ago, funaz said:

Actually, I believe more FQBs come from rounds 3-5 than they do from round 2. 

42 minutes ago, jgb said:

Not disputing and would love to see the data, although it's not apples to apples to compare 1 round to 3. It's kind of like when people say (correctly) that more starters are UDFAs than round 7 picks. Yeah, well every team brings in like 8 UDFAs every year.

But the second sentence I think is airtight.

 

It's close.  4th rounders Dak and Kirk Cousins (not a franchise QB) are the only current starting QBs in the league who came from that range.  Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder and he's currently riding the bench, but yes, he was of course a one-time FQB.  Jacoby Brissett was a 3rd rounder but is not a FQB.  Even sh*tty Will Levis came from round 2.  

22 current starters came from Rd 1:  Mahomes, Josh Allen, Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert, Stroud, Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Richardson, Love, Stafford, Goff, Mayfield, Fields, Tua, Lawrence, Watson, Daniel Jones, Darnold and rookies Caleb Williams Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.  Darnold's eventual replacement, JJ McCarthy, was of course a 1st as well.  As was Brissett's eventual replacement, Drake Maye.

Hurts, Derek Carr, Geno Smith and Dalton were 2nd rounders.  Minshew and Purdy 7th rounders.

So that's 5 current starters from Rd 2, three from the 3-5 range.  Four if you want to count Jacoby Brissett.

If we're only counting FQB's, Dak is the only one in the 3-5 range.  Cousins is a stretch.  Hurts and maybe Carr are the 2nd rounders.  

So to summarize:

• Round 1:  22 starting QBs (includes ~ 8-10 franchise QBs)
• Round 2:  5 starting QBs (2 franchise QBs)
• Rounds 3-5:  3 starting QBs (1 franchise QB)
• Rounds 6-7:  2 starting QBs (1 potential franchise QB)

[batman10023]

20 hours ago, jgb said:

I mean you’re pulling 60 million out of nowhere. I counter with 45 million and say “yes absolutely.”

everyone would sign up for 45mm a year - expect Purdy.

that being said, for some reason i think he will do a team friendly deal.

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

everyone would sign up for 45mm a year - expect Purdy.

that being said, for some reason i think he will do a team friendly deal.

I was being ridiculous with the 45 million; but I agree, this guy has the feel of being a guy who would do team-friendly.