When Big QB Contracts Backfire: Are Teams Paying the Price?

[jgb]

27 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

It's close.  4th rounders Dak and Kirk Cousins (not a franchise QB) are the only current starting QBs in the league who came from that range.  Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder and he's currently riding the bench, but yes, he was of course a one-time FQB.  Jacoby Brissett was a 3rd rounder but is not a FQB.  Even sh*tty Will Levis came from round 2.  

22 current starters came from Rd 1:  Mahomes, Josh Allen, Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert, Stroud, Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Richardson, Love, Stafford, Goff, Mayfield, Fields, Tua, Lawrence, Watson, Daniel Jones, Darnold and rookies Caleb Williams Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.  Darnold's eventual replacement, JJ McCarthy, was of course a 1st as well.  As was Brissett's eventual replacement, Drake Maye.

Hurts, Derek Carr, Geno Smith and Dalton were 2nd rounders.  Minshew and Purdy 7th rounders.

So that's 5 current starters from Rd 2, three from the 3-5 range.  Four if you want to count Jacoby Brissett.

If we're only counting FQB's, Dak is the only one in the 3-5 range.  Cousins is a stretch.  Hurts and maybe Carr are the 2nd rounders.  

So to summarize:

• Round 1:  22 starting QBs (includes ~ 8-10 franchise QBs)
• Round 2:  5 starting QBs (2 franchise QBs)
• Rounds 3-5:  3 starting QBs (1 franchise QB)
• Rounds 6-7:  2 starting QBs (1 potential franchise QB)

Should've tagged you

Again, the way to find a FQB is to pull every available lever until it happens.

[NYJCAP2]

22 hours ago, PS17 said:

I don’t see anything changing. It’s a simple matter of supply and demand. The demand for a franchise QB far outweighs the supply, so you’ll continue to see teams pay the going rate for anyone who’s shown half a glimpse of being legit. 

Also, Percent of Cap.

Teams will continually pay between 15-20% of the cap on QBs for their second contracts. The only thing going up is the dollar amounts.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

Should've tagged you

Again, the way to find a FQB is to pull every available lever until it happens.

No need, I was drawn to this thread via spidey senses.

[HighPitch]

The other side of the coin is if you have a bad qb, you are almost surely not winning games.

qb is the #1 position. The straw that stirs the drink.

Its not surprising that they are overpaid and I see no scenario where they suddenly wont get the big $$$$

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No need, I was drawn to this thread via spidey senses.

You are not the hero we deserve, but the one we need

[jgb]

Just now, HighPitch said:

The other side of the coin is if you have a bad qb, you are almost surely not winning games.

qb is the #1 position. The straw that stirs the drink.

Its not surprising that they are overpaid and I see no scenario where they suddenly wont get the big $$$$

The elite ones are actually underpaid, IMHO.

[HighPitch]

Just now, jgb said:

The elite ones are actually underpaid, IMHO.

Yes its funny how that works

[jgb]

Just now, HighPitch said:

Yes its funny how that works

I mean when I say elite I mean.... Mahomes and.... I guess Mahomes lol.

[HighPitch]

Just now, jgb said:

I mean when I say elite I mean.... Mahomes and.... I guess Mahomes lol.

Tom brady during his tenure

aaron rogers also seems like a good deal in retrospect 

[jgb]

Just now, HighPitch said:

Tom brady during his tenure

aaron rogers also seems like a good deal in retrospect 

Lamar is probably also underpaid; that team is utterly different (worse) without him.

[HighPitch]

The problem is the concept of guaranteed money. Get injured while the ink is still wet? Too bad so sad pay up sucker

Also there needs to be incentives/benchmarks to justify the cost. 
 

Im sure the players and the union will disagree but if all teams simply stop offering guaranteed $ what then? CFL?

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

The problem is the concept of guaranteed money. Get injured while the ink is still wet? Too bad so sad pay up sucker

Also there needs to be incentives/benchmarks to justify the cost. 
 

Im sure the players and the union will disagree but if all teams simply stop offering guaranteed $ what then? CFL?

I'd love to see some form of cap relief for FQB injuries (player still gets their money, but team gets addition money to spend). But it probably creates too much moral hazard -- like the Browns would IR Watson with a hangnail, if such a rule existed. Would probably need a panel of independent doctors to confirm the player is truly hurt.

[JKlecko]

17 hours ago, Blackout said:

Those casuals can go watch the NBA if they want high scoring games

 

We want NFL Football.  Not arena league flag football.

Just because someone likes a lot of offense and high-scoring games doesn't make them a "casual."

[Jetsfan80]

25 minutes ago, jgb said:

I'd love to see some form of cap relief for FQB injuries (player still gets their money, but team gets addition money to spend). But it probably creates too much moral hazard -- like the Browns would IR Watson with a hangnail, if such a rule existed. Would probably need a panel of independent doctors to confirm the player is truly hurt.

Separate cap for QBs.  Boom, done, problem solved for everyone.  

[EM31]

30 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Tom brady during his tenure

aaron rogers also seems like a good deal in retrospect 

There are more than a few reasons to suspect that Brady was being compensated via some kind of back door (almost no pun intended there)

[nycdan]

29 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Also, Percent of Cap.

Teams will continually pay between 15-20% of the cap on QBs for their second contracts. The only thing going up is the dollar amounts.

Dak's cap number next season is just shy of $90M.

The projected cap is $272M.

That puts him at almost 33% of the cap.  For one player.  Who is not Patrick Mahomes.

They also have $22M in void year cap hits that year and $9M in dead money.  That's roughly $120M before they have paid for the 2nd player on their roster.  The 2nd player will be Lamb at $35M in cap hit.  Now they're up to $155M, leaving them less than $120M to pay the other 49 guys in their top-51.  They'll get it done.  Teams always do.  But they are WAY over 15-20% for the QB next year.

[jgb]

33 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Separate cap for QBs.  Boom, done, problem solved for everyone.  

I like it but that may actually increase the gap between the haves and have-nots

[nycdan]

Just now, jgb said:

I like it but that way actually increase the gap between the haves and have-nots

Yep.  Mahomes would be pulling down $100M right now if that was the case.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

I like it but that may actually increase the gap between the haves and have-nots

 

2 hours ago, nycdan said:

Yep.  Mahomes would be pulling down $100M right now if that was the case.

Not really.  You’d cap QB contracts still.  Like, you can only spend x amount on your QB room, and that number goes up as the “other cap” (rest of the roster) does based on revenue.  

Regulations would need to be added to define which cap a guy like Taysom Hill belongs to but that would be fairly easy to do.  If placed in the QB bucket he must play X % of his snap count at QB or you get docked a pick, or something like that. 

[rbstern]

On 9/16/2024 at 3:50 PM, Joe W. Namath said:

Of course you pay good qbs.  What are we talking about here?

Not paying good QBs.

[Sperm Edwards]

15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Not really.  You’d cap QB contracts still.  Like, you can only spend x amount on your QB room, and that number goes up as the “other cap” does based on revenue.  

The problem with that is it favors teams with the best of the best QBs even more because the QBs won't have nearly the same contract leverage over them when their money is capped.

That's just in theory, though. On paper, the way it's been playing out whichever FQB with at least 4 prime seasons left - good or not - is the next one whose contract is due ends up meeting or exceeding the previous highest-paid guy anyway. The thing is there's at least the opportunity that this trend reverses for all but the very best of the very best (like Mahomes) after so many of these mega-deal QB contracts blow up in teams' faces.

What's so crazy about the 10-year $450MM Mahomes deal is how quickly (and effectively) the agents for the next guys up said, "OK the bar's been set at $45MM per season," without their teams' GMs saying in response, "Yeah, no. That's the bar if you're literally the single best young QB the league has ever seen AND it requires several years of fluff amounts at the end of a decade-long contract to create that average -- a decade-long contract that binds the player to the team for most of it, but not in reverse, since the guaranteed money will be long over by then." 

A blink of an eye later Watson, out of football for a year and with his name in total disgrace, gets more than that in a fully-guaranteed 5 year deal, and 10 minutes after that scrub Daniel Jones is getting $40MM per on just a 4-year deal because he once QB'd his team to the playoffs while averaging 1 TD/game. 

[funaz]

 
It's close.  4th rounders Dak and Kirk Cousins (not a franchise QB) are the only current starting QBs in the league who came from that range.  Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder and he's currently riding the bench, but yes, he was of course a one-time FQB.  Jacoby Brissett was a 3rd rounder but is not a FQB.  Even sh*tty Will Levis came from round 2.  
22 current starters came from Rd 1:  Mahomes, Josh Allen, Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert, Stroud, Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Richardson, Love, Stafford, Goff, Mayfield, Fields, Tua, Lawrence, Watson, Daniel Jones, Darnold and rookies Caleb Williams Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.  Darnold's eventual replacement, JJ McCarthy, was of course a 1st as well.  As was Brissett's eventual replacement, Drake Maye.
Hurts, Derek Carr, Geno Smith and Dalton were 2nd rounders.  Minshew and Purdy 7th rounders.
So that's 5 current starters from Rd 2, three from the 3-5 range.  Four if you want to count Jacoby Brissett.
If we're only counting FQB's, Dak is the only one in the 3-5 range.  Cousins is a stretch.  Hurts and maybe Carr are the 2nd rounders.  
So to summarize:

• Round 1:  22 starting QBs (includes ~ 8-10 franchise QBs)
• Round 2:  5 starting QBs (2 franchise QBs)
• Rounds 3-5:  3 starting QBs (1 franchise QB)
• Rounds 6-7:  2 starting QBs (1 potential franchise QB)

Thanks for doing the work I was too lazy to do.

My point main point is still valid, get one in round 1, or get lucky with a later one (you have just as good of odds 3-7 as you do in round 2).


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app

[peebag]

15 hours ago, jgb said:

I just get the sense from him that he’ll accept a little less to help the Niners keep the band together. Could absolutely be wrong.

You're absolutely right - what other environment is he going to where he's set up to succeed like he has with SF?

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Not really.  You’d cap QB contracts still.  Like, you can only spend x amount on your QB room, and that number goes up as the “other cap” (rest of the roster) does based on revenue.  

Regulations would need to be added to define which cap a guy like Taysom Hill belongs to but that would be fairly easy to do.  If placed in the QB bucket he must play X % of his snap count at QB or you get docked a pick, or something like that. 

Yeah, I dunno. Don't think it would change much if it's fungible and moves to the "other" cap if you don't spent it on QB.

[Jetsfan80]

49 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yeah, I dunno. Don't think it would change much if it's fungible and moves to the "other" cap if you don't spent it on QB.

Nah, I would think it becomes use it or lose it on both caps.  No more reason for rollover and such.

[Rich Thornburgh]

Problem with not paying the QB is you risk ending up like the 2024 Broncos or the Jets 2000-2023

[Rich Thornburgh]

6 hours ago, HighPitch said:

The other side of the coin is if you have a bad qb, you are almost surely not winning games.

qb is the #1 position. The straw that stirs the drink.

Its not surprising that they are overpaid and I see no scenario where they suddenly wont get the big $$$$

And good GMs know how to use the draft and sign cheap mid-tier free agents to reload.  
 

If you got an overrated non-QB on your roster that the media is screaming for you to pay $100 million to like Jamal Adams the smart move is to trade him for draft picks.  That’s why we need to trade Sauce next offseason 

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nah, I would think it becomes use it or lose it on both caps.  No more reason for rollover and such.

Just seems if you implement separate cap for QBs, you just widen the gap even further between the 12 teams with good QBs and the 20 without. At least now the teams with good QBs have to suffer elsewhere because they pay the QB so much. But if the chiefs, for example, were able to pay Mahomes from an entirely separate bucket of money? They’d go 17-0 ever year.

[jgb]

10 hours ago, funaz said:

 

Thanks for doing the work I was too lazy to do.

My point main point is still valid, get one in round 1, or get lucky with a later one (you have just as good of odds 3-7 as you do in round 2).


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Again, you’re comparing 5 rounds to 1 round; a population 5x as large. The hit rate for round 2 QBs is much higher than for any individual round thereafter. (Thanks @Jetsfan80)

[Jet Nut]

11 hours ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

And good GMs know how to use the draft and sign cheap mid-tier free agents to reload.  
 

If you got an overrated non-QB on your roster that the media is screaming for you to pay $100 million to like Jamal Adams the smart move is to trade him for draft picks.  That’s why we need to trade Sauce next offseason 

Sauce is not Jamal Adams.  
A horrible analogy.  Adams came wrapped with lots of issues that screamed trade him.
This is just trading one of your best players away so you don’t have to negotiate a new contract and pay the man.  
 

[Rich Thornburgh]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Sauce is not Jamal Adams.  
A horrible analogy.  Adams came wrapped with lots of issues that screamed trade him.
This is just trading one of your best players away so you don’t have to negotiate a new contract and pay the man.  
 

And Sauce is not Revis (who we also traded btw)
 

You don’t pay a good not great DB. I know you are super anxious to give Sauce $160 million guaranteed but thats really how you get into cap hell

[NYJCAP2]

22 hours ago, nycdan said:

Dak's cap number next season is just shy of $90M.

The projected cap is $272M.

That puts him at almost 33% of the cap.  For one player.  Who is not Patrick Mahomes.

They also have $22M in void year cap hits that year and $9M in dead money.  That's roughly $120M before they have paid for the 2nd player on their roster.  The 2nd player will be Lamb at $35M in cap hit.  Now they're up to $155M, leaving them less than $120M to pay the other 49 guys in their top-51.  They'll get it done.  Teams always do.  But they are WAY over 15-20% for the QB next year.

Wow, that is an absurd amount! He must be eligible for restructures but they seem to want to front load it as much as possible.

For the Jag QBs getting $50M a year, mostly all fall into the 15-20% principle. 

[Jet Nut]

On 9/18/2024 at 11:12 AM, Rich Thornburgh said:

And Sauce is not Revis (who we also traded btw)
 

You don’t pay a good not great DB. I know you are super anxious to give Sauce $160 million guaranteed but thats really how you get into cap hell

Jets traded Revis over money and the fear of a holdout.  
Sauce is one of the best CBs in the league, a 2X all pro in 2 seasons of play.  His first 2 NFL seasons are better than Revis’.  Not just good but great, especially given today’s rules.  
Some of you people just don’t want to pay your best players and then bitch about the GM over a lack of players.  You’re a shining example

[JetNation]

This is an interesting topic, and there has been discussion in our NY Jets message board about QB contracts. NYC Dan brings up a good point: When is enough enough regarding the pay at the QB position? Some bad decisions have been made, as Dan outlines below. Check the thread to see what other fans are saying about this issue.

Will this be the season where GMs finally realize that paying QBs a quarter of their salary cap is bad business?

Here is a list of all the $200M guys in the last few years that one could argue were bad outcomes (so far):

• Tua: Gets paid – plays 1 game and gets career threatening concussion that was clearly only a matter of time.  $167M guaranteed.
• Love: Gets paid after 8 good games.  Get injured in week 1.  Out 3-6 weeks at least.
• Dak:  Gets paid.  Plays poorly week 1.  Lays egg week 2.  Not even going to wait until the playoffs to be mediocre this year.
• Lawrence:  Gets paid.  Plays below average at best first two weeks.  Jags 0-2.
• Burrow:  Gets paid.  misses 7 games in 2023.  CIN misses playoffs.  Starts 2024 0-2.
• Jackson: Gets paid.  Has great season.  Melts in 2nd playoff game.  It happens.  Starts 2024 0-2.
• Deshaun Watson:  Needs no commentary
• Kyler Murray:  Gets paid after so many warning signs.  Goes 3-8 and injues out.  Next season misses first 9 games, goes 3-5.
• Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones:  Only $160M but why would they pay him that?!

The ones that seem to have been good value were Mahomes (duh!), Allen, Herbert (great QB, but awful team and coaching staff until now), Hurts (great team around him but they still sucked in the playoff game last season), and Goff.   Love might still work out.

Mahomes was a no-brainer.  That kind of guy only comes around once or twice a decade.  I understood Herbert, Allen, and Hurts.  But most of the teams above are looking at 3-4 years of NFL purgatory with a weakened roster at the other end of it.  Somehow, no matter how much evidence piles up, teams just keep upping the QB money.  MIA is cooked (not sad about it).  CLE, DAL, JAX, CIN, ARI are probably all doomed to hoping to squeak out one playoff win every season.  So many of these guys cash monster deals based on less than one season of good play and then *BAMF* they turn into Ryan Tannehill or they get injured and miss parts of multiple seasons.  The risk just doesn’t seem worth it.

On the other hand, you see a few teams making serious runs with Baker Mayfield and now maybe Sam Darnold or Derek Carr (it’s still early).

So every year you see teams squaring off with their QBs and feeling like they have no choice but to overpay.  I wonder how many BAL fans wish they went a different way with that cap money.  Or DAL fans.  Or certainly NYG and CLE fans (now joined by MIA fans).

The cost/risk of QB deals going bad seems too high right now.  Feels like something has to change but I the league seems to be content to just shuffle along as long as the KC Swifts keep on winning (with a little help from their striped friends).

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[Rich Thornburgh]

14 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Jets traded Revis over money and the fear of a holdout.  

And that’s what the jets will do with Sauce if they are smart