Bugg Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 My plays-Cowboys, Chiefs and Falcons all under. Browns over. http://www.vegasinsider.com/u/futures/NFL_1462.cfm IND COLTS11.5 SEA SEAHAWKS10.5 NE PATRIOTS10.5 PIT STEELERS10.5 DEN BRONCOS10 CAR PANTHERS10 JAC JAGUARS9.5 DAL COWBOYS9.5 CIN BENGALS9.5 KC CHIEFS9.5 MIA DOLPHINS9 CHI BEARS9 WAS REDSKINSXX NY GIANTS8.5 PHI EAGLES8.5 ATL FALCONS8.5 SD CHARGERS8.5 BAL RAVENS8 ARZ CARDINALS8 TB BUCCANEERS8 MIN VIKINGS8 STL RAMS7.5 GB PACKERS7 CLE BROWNS7 BUF BILLS6.5 OAK RAIDERS6.5 NO SAINTS6.5 DET LIONS6.5 NY JETS6 HOU TEXANS5.5 TEN TITANS5.5 SF 49ERS5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
124 Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 I'm guessing this is for games that each team will win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PFSIKH Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 I will place all my VCash and take the Jets for under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
124 Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 They're only giving the Bears 9 wins? I'd place A LOT on over. Loved what I saw in the 1st half last night (screw the 2nd half with the 3rd stringers, few back-ups and guys who won't make the team). Once again they're going to do it with D & Special Teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bugg Posted August 19, 2006 Author Share Posted August 19, 2006 This would make for a fine v-cash thread, thoguh if v-cash was real there would be bankruptcy declared on the Chiefs under around Thankgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionelRichie Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 tampa bay over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 KC under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 this is a piece I am working on for DD.com - inspired by this thread Every season a popular wager with sports betting fans of the game are the win totals of NFL teams prior to the season outset. Draft Daddy would like to take this opportunity to isolate particular Vegas lines and give our picks for how their season will fare, plus an explanation. Note that this is purely for entertainment purposes, for every case we make the opposite could also end up being true – it’s that unpredictability why the NFL is the greatest league in the world.. NY Jets: Vegas predicts 6 wins. Our pick: OVER The national media has underrated their talent level due to quarterback injury woes of 2005 that would make any team look horrible. The Jets have servicable QB talent three deep this year and an extremely favorable schedule, 5th weakest in the league, with opponents winning less than 46% of their 2005 games. Detroit Lions: Vegas predicts 6.5 wins. Our pick: OVER Detroit doesn’t look likely to take the Lombardi trophy anytime soon, but with a new coaching staff boasting Mike Martz and Donnie Henderson as coordinators and the league’s 8th easiest strength of schedule this team only has to be a little better to beat Vegas’ prediction. New Orleans Saints: Vegas predicts 6.5 wins. Our pick: UNDER The Saints may have made a serious miscalculation when they moved career right tackle Jammal Brown to the left side of the line in a justification for why they weren’t going to pick D’Brickashaw Ferguson. Some players just can’t switch sides and this transition has been a rocky one so far. Oh yeah did we mention they have the league’s toughest opposition strength of schedule? Numero Uno and it's not close - rut roh. Baltimore Ravens: Vegas predicts 8 wins. Our pick: OVER Despite 9th toughest strength of schedule, the addition of QB Steve McNair will change the dynamic of the offense and inspire a team that has always been focused on winning with defense. McNair doesn’t have to be amazing, all he has to be is serviceable and the Ravens could challenge for the division. Arizona Cardinals: Vegas predicts 8 wins. Our pick: UNDER This year sees the Cards open a new stadium, the high priced addition of RB Edgerrin James and a swagger to match their angrier bird logo; still this team lacks a defensive identity and has serious offensive line woes. Middle of the pack in terms of schedule strength. KC Chiefs: Vegas predicts 9.5 wins. Our pick UNDER The loss of All-pro LT William Roaf (replaced by infamous OT Kyle Turley) coupled with new coach Herman Edwards “slowing” of the previously dynamic Al Saunders-led offense could spell trouble for a Chiefs team that comes into the season with high expectations and the 7th toughest strength of schedule. Cincinnati Bengals: Vegas predicts 9.5 wins. Our pick UNDER The Bengals have had a tough offseason, with several of their players running into legal problems, which could provide distraction. QB Carson Palmer should be physically ready to start the season but will he be ready mentally? With the 4th most difficult strength of schedule and the Super Bowl champions in the division there is no room for happy feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 I bet $2500 on the Chiefs under 9.5 this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 I bet $2500 on the Chiefs under 9.5 this week. out of all the picks i just made that's the one i am the most comfortable with by far it's a smart play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 I will place all my VCash and take the Jets for under. PFSIKH, that looks like the lock of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 F-it. I'm doubling it. This is too good. They are assuming that Oakland is two automatic wins, as are Arizona, Cleveland, StL, and Baltimore - before the season's even begun. Time to take advantage of the rest of the country not knowing what a boob Edwards is. KC may not win 5 games this year; no way they win 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PFSIKH Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 PFSIKH, that looks like the lock of the year. I know. Bit What seven games do you see the Jets winning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 I know. Bit What seven games do you see the Jets winning? Ten cle gb hou oak det all they need is 1 div win or other upset and thats 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Ten cle gb hou oak det all they need is 1 div win or other upset and thats 7 The Jets will lose 2 out of 3 games to Tenn, Cleveland and Houston. All 3 of those teams have more talent than the Jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 The Jets will lose 2 out of 3 games to Tenn, Cleveland and Houston. All 3 of those teams have more talent than the Jets. With Domanick Davis rubbing salve on his vagina as often as he takes handoffs, the Texans running game is actually worse than the Jets. Carr, for all his talent (and he's got more than enough), holds the ball longer than Ramsey. Their defense is just flat-out worse than the Jets. Cleveland was scarier when they had a center. I think their defense will be REALLY good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 The Jets will lose 2 out of 3 games to Tenn, Cleveland and Houston. All 3 of those teams have more talent than the Jets. people don't realize the true talent level of the Jets b/c of the Qb woes last season if the Patriots lost Tom Brady they'd look alot like the 2005 Jets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cant Hackett Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 people don't realize the true talent level of the Jets b/c of the Qb woes last season if the Patriots lost Tom Brady they'd look alot like the 2005 Jets I agree Bit. Even if Jay F stayed healthy, the Jets would have won a lot more then four games. With decent QB play, they will have a good season. The OL looks like they are coming together already. Take the over to the vbank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cant Hackett Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 PFSIKH, that looks like the lock of the year. If PKSIKH so smart, how come he only has 25 in vcash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 if the Patriots lost Tom Brady they'd look alot like the 2005 Jets Please. If the Pats lost Brady, Cassel would step in and the Pats offense wouldn't miss a beat. No way in hell would the Pats be as pathetic as the Jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Please. If the Pats lost Brady, Cassel would step in and the Pats offense wouldn't miss a beat. No way in hell would the Pats be as pathetic as the Jets. yeah dude - because we all know Matt Cassel is just as good as Tom Brady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cant Hackett Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Please. If the Pats lost Brady, Cassel would step in and the Pats offense wouldn't miss a beat. No way in hell would the Pats be as pathetic as the Jets. As long as Cassel plays against 2nd and 3rd team defenses, he will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 As long as Cassel plays against 2nd and 3rd team defenses, he will be fine. So you agree that Cassel would light up the Jets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cant Hackett Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 So you agree that Cassel would light up the Jets? If the Jets is a 2nd or 3rd team defense, that must make the Pats a practice squad defense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raffyD Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Please. If the Pats lost Brady, Cassel would step in and the Pats offense wouldn't miss a beat. No way in hell would the Pats be as pathetic as the Jets. Confirmation that Brady is a system qb and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 people don't realize the true talent level of the Jets b/c of the Qb woes last season if the Patriots lost Tom Brady they'd look alot like the 2005 Jets I agree Bit-I would love to see the Pats with Matt Cassell at QB for 16 games-I'D LOVE IT-and just think if they had to endure losing 2 more AFTER Mr Future HOFer-3-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny green balls Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 something struck me looking at these numbers, seems at first glance like the average wins-per-team is much higher than 8. by definition, there can be no more than 256 wins in a football season (the number of games in a season). i tallied up the o/u over for each team at bodog and they come to 262.5 total wins (not sure if those numbers are the same as those posted here but they probably are taken from the same vegas lines). of course, if there are any ties, there will be even less than 256 wins. my point is that one could arbitrage this by betting the same amount on the under for each team. unfortunately, the juice would eliminate any profits but it's interesting that the numbers would come out this way. my guess is that vegas knows that the public is more likely to bet on the OVER for their favorite team than on the UNDER for other teams (imagine a whole bunch of BZs) and will do so regardless of the number there ("dude, we're going all the way this year baby!"). therefore, if they inject a win-bias into the numbers, they will add a little extra to their juice when more than 50% of the betters lose when there are the inevitable 256 (or slightly less with a couple ties) wins. worst case scenario for vegas is they make a little less if people catch on and make a lot of under bets and like 52% of people win their bets (because they've still got the juice). of course vegas would correct itself fairly quickly if this were to suddenly start happening. another interesting thing is the weird disconnect between the odds for teams over multiple bets. the titans and the texans are a good example. check this out: odds to win superbowl: titans: 100/1 texans: 110/1 but then it flips when it's odds to win the AFC: titans: 55/1 texans: 50/1 even stranger, odds to win the AFC-South: titans: 15/1 texans: 9/1 pretty crazy that between the two, the texans are considered much more likely to win the division than the titans (by a margin of nearly 2 to 1) but then LESS likely to win the superbowl than the titans. and then the titans are LESS likely to win the AFC championship than the texans but MORE likely to win the SB! of course, it matters little since neither team will do any of these things and the reason the numbers are skewed is probably because there is relatively little action on these outcomes. there are others, this one was just the most obvious. i once found a surefire arbitrage bet though and... oh wait, that was just on vbookie (who will start for the jets). man i can't wait until the season starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PFSIKH Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 If PKSIKH so smart, how come he only has 25 in vcash? Because I bet on th Sox. bit You are saying those are locks? The Jets will be luck to win half of those and split with Buffalo. 4 wins would be a good season. --------------------------------- Here is the thing. If Brady goes down, the rest of talent is not 4-12 talent. Cassell is no Brady, but when Belichick simplifies the offense and is more concious of running the clock and where the Patriots are on the field, circa. 2001, the Patriots remaining talent will guide them to a winning record. It might not be pretty week-tpweek, but this team will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 our starting defense has looked a lot better in pre season than anybody thought they would-me?I'm one of the"delusional" who are saying 9 or 10 wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cant Hackett Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Here is the thing. If Brady goes down, the rest of talent is not 4-12 talent. Cassell is no Brady, but when Belichick simplifies the offense and is more concious of running the clock and where the Patriots are on the field, circa. 2001, the Patriots remaining talent will guide them to a winning record. It might not be pretty week-tpweek, but this team will win. Jets lost both Chad & Jay. Pats are weak at LB & DB. Where would that leave the Pats, Doug F out of retirement? 6-10 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cant Hackett Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 our starting defense has looked a lot better in pre season than anybody thought they would-me?I'm one of the"delusional" who are saying 9 or 10 wins Add me to that list. 10 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Preston Howley III Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 KC under Parlay that with the Jets over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Parlay that with the Jets over. I'm not a gambling man (maybe the only vice I've never had-ahem) but if I WERE I'd take them both too JM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Preston Howley III Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 PFSIKH, that looks like the lock of the year. Not going to touch the Pats 10 and a half over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Other ones I liked weren't so much because of a gut feeling, but b/c of the better-than-1:1-odds: GB under 6.0; bet $100 to win $150 Det under 6.5; bet $100 to win $140 I don't bet much at all. Just no way the Chiefs win 10 games. The O/U line being at 9.5 is purely based on the country thinking Herm has a clue about anything. Still thinks that b/c LJ was successful with a dominant OL and a legit passing attack, that he'll be equally successful with two scrub OT's and no passing over 9 yds. I just doubled my money. Waiting for the results is only a formality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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