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Matt39

Texans releasing Ed Reed

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If the Jets were as bad as they were projected to be, I'd agree with you but not while they are in the hunt at this point.

 

The Jets will certainly check out his injury, but if that's not an issue why not? He most likely will only play this season (unless he shows he's got a lot left in the tank) for the playoff push/run. The safety play has been awful, so he can only help and the young players can learn from him as well.

The more I think about what you said the more I think you're right and I was wrong. The fact that we are in the playoff run shouldnt be overlooked which is something I was guilty of.

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Handicapping Ed Reed’s next team

November 14th, 2013 10:38 am

 

Brian Bassett, TheJetsBlog.com

 

Reed would have nothing to learn and he could fit nicely in a number of roles. 

 

Initially to allow Reed to get used to the scheme, it might make sense to use Reed as a Big Nickel and then consider expanding his role.

 

 

No contradiction there.   :confused0082:

 

If it is true that Reed is leaning towards the Pats, what does that say about his great love for Rex?  Could the Pats be offering a lot more money?  Does Reed think he has a better chance of making the SB with the Pats?  Does he even care about the latter?  It will be interesting to see what happens.

 

If Reed has anything left in his tank, there's no doubt he could help this team defensively on the field.  Is he the type to "mentor" younger players?  I don't know.  I've never heard anything said one way or the other about that aspect of his personality/character.

 

My question is this, is it really worth bringing Reed in?  Will what he gives to the Jets this season outweight what they might lose in the draft and next season?  If Reed can still play, I can see where he definitely might help the Jets win another game or possibly two this season.  Let's say that without him the Jets finish 9-7 or 8-8 and with him, they finish 10-6.  There's a big difference draft position-wise between 8-8 or 9-7 and 10-6, enough so that it might cause the Jets to miss out on that stud WR the team covets in every round if Idzik refuses or is unable to trade up.  Not to be overlooked either is the fact that with less playing time (potentially a lot less) it could hinder Allen's development, particularly if Reed isn't the "mentoring" kind.

 

Just a week or so ago, most of us were content to say that this is a "rebuilding" season and not only did we not expect to make the playoffs, but many were saying that wasn't that important.  The important things were finding out who could help the team going forward and developing the young players, especially Geno.  Now I see a number of posters who are all in on signing Reed and making the playoffs.  Even though the team has been exciting and played surprisingly well, I still don't think they have the horses to go anywhere in the playoffs.  They just have too many weaknesses and 

"iffy" parts of the team where poor play or another injury to a key starter would doom the team.  Is going one and done in the playoffs really worth missing out on a Watkins, Ebron, Lee, Matthews, or even worse, one of the better QB prospects should Geno keeping turning the ball over and not prove to be the definite QB of the future?

 

I'm not saying that I'm against signing Reed, just wondering what might be best for the team in the long run.  We've already seen what the overachieving  teams in 2009 and 2010 resulted in.  While Idzik isn't Tanny and won't overestimate the team's talent, there will be little he can do if even with all the cap space the Jets will have, there aren't the players available in FA that can upgrade the key positions where upgrades are needed,and/or if the Jets aren't in position to draft the players they need, either due to their record or other teams refusing to allow the Jets to trade up to try to get some of those players.  There are consequences or we pay a price for every thing we do in life. Many teams stay mired in mediocrity because they finish at 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 year in and year out, because they don't have the high draft picks they need to get the talent they need to take them to the next level.

 

 

Overachieving is bad?  They should not try to make the playoffs because they might drop several slots if they go 9-7 instead of 8-8?  WTF? If only we could go 2-14!

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No contradiction there.   :confused0082:

 

 

 

Overachieving is bad?  They should not try to make the playoffs because they might drop several slots if they go 9-7 instead of 8-8?  WTF? If only we could go 2-14!

 

Why the hyperbole?  The playoffs is exciting, sure, but it's short term gratification, because there's little possibility that they would play more than one game and then be out.  If you knew for certain that the Jets would make the playoffs and then be one and done, and as a result, know for certain that they would not get a stud WR or TE in next year's draft, and the FAs that are listed now don't change, would you do it?  I wouldn't.  Of course there are no certainties, but the odds would definitely be against the Jets getting a topflight WR or TE prospect in next year's draft if they make the playoffs.  We all know that the offense needs playmakers.  If they can't add any of consequence during either the draft or FA and the team is stuck with the same "weapons" as this year, would you be happy?  I wouldn't, and things would be little different or better than this year.  Their prospects for getting to and winning a SB would be even less, because other teams will get the players that could have helped put the Jets over the top.  So in effect, you're trading an extra game, maybe two this year with no realistic chance at winning the Lombardi Trophy for what could be a very real shot at getting to and winning the SB in 2014 or 2015.  IMO, that's not a good trade.

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Why the hyperbole?  The playoffs is exciting, sure, but it's short term gratification, because there's little possibility that they would play more than one game and then be out.  If you knew for certain that the Jets would make the playoffs and then be one and done, and as a result, know for certain that they would not get a stud WR or TE in next year's draft, and the FAs that are listed now don't change, would you do it?  I wouldn't.  Of course there are no certainties, but the odds would definitely be against the Jets getting a topflight WR or TE prospect in next year's draft if they make the playoffs.  We all know that the offense needs playmakers.  If they can't add any of consequence during either the draft or FA and the team is stuck with the same "weapons" as this year, would you be happy?  I wouldn't, and things would be little different or better than this year.  Their prospects for getting to and winning a SB would be even less, because other teams will get the players that could have helped put the Jets over the top.  So in effect, you're trading an extra game, maybe two this year with no realistic chance at winning the Lombardi Trophy for what could be a very real shot at getting to and winning the SB in 2014 or 2015.  IMO, that's not a good trade.

 

Giants were what 9-7 when they won the Super Bowl?

 

In order to win a Lombardi you have to get in the play offs first.   Willing to bet quit a bit that signing Reed isn't going to cost the Jets a Super Bowl next year

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Giants were what 9-7 when they won the Super Bowl?

 

In order to win a Lombardi you have to get in the play offs first.   Willing to bet quit a bit that signing Reed isn't going to cost the Jets a Super Bowl next year

 

Do you seriously think the Jets have a realistic chance to win the SB this year?  I don't.  I don't think they have a snowball's chance in hell of even getting to the AFC Championship Game, much less to or winning the SB this year.   Their OLBs stink.  Their WRs and TEs are below average. Their CB play has been pretty dreadful.  Even with Reed, their Safety play will still probably be below average.  Geno hasn't shown that he can cut down on the TOs.  Rex hasn't shown that he won't go into an ultra-conservative "Ground and Pound" mode to play it safe the rest of the season.  If he does, they won't truly find out what they need to learn about Geno and it will curtail/hinder Geno's development, and that could definitely hurt their chances of winning big in 2014.  I'm not saying that I think the Jets can win the SB next year if they get a stud WR prospect in the draft, but it sure won't hurt their chances unless he winds up being a bust.  We all know that they need a major upgrade at WR before their chances of getting to and winning the SB are realistic.  I just don't think it's realistic at all to think if they can sneak into the playoffs this year that they can go on some kind of miraculous hot streak.  It's just wishful thinking.  IMO winning another game or two this season isn't worth the risk of missing out on the players they might be able to add in next year's draft. It's been an exciting year, a better than expected year, and a lot of the young players have given us a lot of reason for realistic hope for the future.

 

Besides, the playoff expectations could dramatically change the way Rex has the team play from here on out that could have a negative impact on the way the youngsters continue to develop. 

Edited by JoeKlecko

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Do you seriously think the Jets have a realistic chance to win the SB this year?  I don't.  I don't think they have a snowball's chance in hell of even getting to the AFC Championship Game, much less to or winning the SB this year.   Their OLBs stink.  Their WRs and TEs are below average. Their CB play has been pretty dreadful.  Even with Reed, their Safety play will still probably be below average.  Geno hasn't shown that he can cut down on the TOs.  Rex hasn't shown that he won't go into an ultra-conservative "Ground and Pound" mode to play it safe the rest of the season.  If he does, they won't truly find out what they need to learn about Geno and it will curtail/hinder Geno's development, and that could definitely hurt their chances of winning big in 2014.  i just don't think it's realistic at all to think if they can sneak into the playoffs this year that they can go on some kind of miraculous hot streak.  It's just wishful thinking.

 

Who cares?  We were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league.  If we get to the playoffs and get blown out in the 1st round I still consider the season a success.  It'll be the 2nd time in 5 years we make the postseason with a rookie QB, and this one doesn't look like he's a borderline retard.

 

Then we enter the 2014 offseason with about $50 million in cap space and 10 or so draft picks.  With a team already stocked with some good young talent after one Idzik draft.

Edited by Jetsfan80

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Do you seriously think the Jets have a realistic chance to win the SB this year?  I don't.  I don't think they have a snowball's chance in hell of even getting to the AFC Championship Game, much less to or winning the SB this year.   Their OLBs stink.  Their WRs and TEs are below average. Their CB play has been pretty dreadful.  Even with Reed, their Safety play will still probably be below average.  Geno hasn't shown that he can cut down on the TOs.  Rex hasn't shown that he won't go into an ultra-conservative "Ground and Pound" mode to play it safe the rest of the season.  If he does, they won't truly find out what they need to learn about Geno and it will curtail/hinder Geno's development, and that could definitely hurt their chances of winning big in 2014.  i just don't think it's realistic at all to think if they can sneak into the playoffs this year that they can go on some kind of miraculous hot streak.  It's just wishful thinking.

I'll bet you would have made the same post in August if somebody suggested  the Jets were going to be a play off candidate  at the bye.

 

Once your in the tournament, team gets hot, anything can happen.   Yes, it is possible the Jets' win the Super Bowl this year.  Not very probable, but possible.

 

Perhaps you should text Herm to let him know he was wrong about why football games are played

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I'll bet you would have made the same post in August if somebody suggested  the Jets were going to be a play off candidate  at the bye.

 

Once your in the tournament, team gets hot, anything can happen.   Yes, it is possible the Jets' win the Super Bowl this year.  Not very probable, but possible.

 

Perhaps you should text Herm to let him know he was wrong about why football games are played

 

All it takes is having a QB who gets hot and a pass-rush that can get to the QB.  The Giants followed that formula to a pair of Super Bowls after sneaking in as a Wild Card.  We KNOW our DL can get to the passer.  Can Geno get hot? 

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Who cares?  We were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league.  If we get to the playoffs and get blown out in the 1st round I still consider the season a success.  It'll be the 2nd time in 5 years we make the postseason with a rookie QB, and this one doesn't look like he's a borderline retard.

 

Then we enter the 2014 offseason with about $50 million in cap space and 10 or so draft picks.  With a team already stocked with some good young talent after one Idzik draft.

 

We've already seen that unless the available FAs at WR and TE don't change dramatically that there are no real difference makers there that the Jets are probably able to sign.  You won't care if making the playoffs prevents the Jets from being able to upgrade the WR or TE positions?

 

Even if the team doesn't make the playoffs, it still has been a very successful season.  It won't take away one bit from the accomplishments that Rex and the team have earned.

 

Obviously, I have nothing against the Jets making the playoffs.  It will be fun and exciting if they do.  I just don't want that to hurt or distract them from their plan for building the team long term.  I want to see the Jets have a realistic chance of winning the SB by 2015 or 2016.  In order to do that, they have to get a real #1 WR and upgrade their "weapons" on offense, plus address some of their other holes.  If they can do both, great.  I'm just worried because I've seen the Jets and too many other teams get mired in mediocrity because they win just enough to prevent them from getting the players they need to go to the next level, and teams with worse records wind up leap-frogging those mediocre teams because they are able to get that great talent in the draft that elevates them.

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Why the hyperbole?  The playoffs is exciting, sure, but it's short term gratification, because there's little possibility that they would play more than one game and then be out.  If you knew for certain that the Jets would make the playoffs and then be one and done, and as a result, know for certain that they would not get a stud WR or TE in next year's draft, and the FAs that are listed now don't change, would you do it?  I wouldn't.  Of course there are no certainties, but the odds would definitely be against the Jets getting a topflight WR or TE prospect in next year's draft if they make the playoffs.  We all know that the offense needs playmakers.  If they can't add any of consequence during either the draft or FA and the team is stuck with the same "weapons" as this year, would you be happy?  I wouldn't, and things would be little different or better than this year.  Their prospects for getting to and winning a SB would be even less, because other teams will get the players that could have helped put the Jets over the top.  So in effect, you're trading an extra game, maybe two this year with no realistic chance at winning the Lombardi Trophy for what could be a very real shot at getting to and winning the SB in 2014 or 2015.  IMO, that's not a good trade.

 

 

The Giants won the super bowl twice while "mired in mediocrity" by your standards.  That is why.  Try to win every ******* game.  The draft and playoffs are both crap shoots.  Get in and you can win.  I could not possibly disagree with your philosophy of not making the playoffs being better because you could get a slightly better player.  Even the thought of it bothers me. 

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I'll bet you would have made the same post in August if somebody suggested  the Jets were going to be a play off candidate  at the bye.

 

Once your in the tournament, team gets hot, anything can happen.   Yes, it is possible the Jets' win the Super Bowl this year.  Not very probable, but possible.

 

Perhaps you should text Herm to let him know he was wrong about why football games are played

 

I probably would have, because we all knew that the team was severely flawed and we saw what happened when Tanny went "all in" to try to win.  I'm not saying that by this signing that Idzik went "all in", but as I said earlier I'm just worried that this might cause them to miss out on the WR we all want in the draft.

 

Yes, it's possible the Jets could win the SB, but about as likely as my being able to make love to any one of a myriad of beautiful models or actresses tonight.

 

I understand and respect your position, and when I was younger, would probably have thought the same way myself.

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We've already seen that unless the available FAs at WR and TE don't change dramatically that there are no real difference makers there that the Jets are probably able to sign.  You won't care if making the playoffs prevents the Jets from being able to upgrade the WR or TE positions?

 

Even if the team doesn't make the playoffs, it still has been a very successful season.  It won't take away one bit from the accomplishments that Rex and the team have earned.

 

Obviously, I have nothing against the Jets making the playoffs.  It will be fun and exciting if they do.  I just don't want that to hurt or distract them from their plan for building the team long term.  I want to see the Jets have a realistic chance of winning the SB by 2015 or 2016.  In order to do that, they have to get a real #1 WR and upgrade their "weapons" on offense, plus address some of their other holes.  If they can do both, great.  I'm just worried because I've seen the Jets and too many other teams get mired in mediocrity because they win just enough to prevent them from getting the players they need to go to the next level, and teams with worse records wind up leap-frogging those mediocre teams because they are able to get that great talent in the draft that elevates them.

 

So why do teams like Baltimore, and Pittsburgh continually draft good talent even though they quite often make the playoffs and are picking at the back end of the draft? How many suppossedly can't miss play makers drafted at the top end of the draft bust out each year? Good to great WR's and TE's can be found at the back end of the 1st round and else where. It's not where you draft, but who you draft and how may picks you hit on.

 

I'm sure that Idz is not thinking like you are. He, Rex, and the players don't care about where their draft position is going to be next year, they just want to win and that's the way it should be. On top of all that, if there is a player Idz really wants before they pick I have the confidence in him to make a reasonable trade up to get that player. 

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Reed is such a minor investment it's a no-brainer.  If he sucks, he didn't cost much.  If he doesn't suck, we got someone who is productive for cheap.

 

As far as the save the future by not winning now, I don't like that philosophy.  Or more to the point, I don't like that philosophy while we're 5-4, presently occupying the 6th and final playoff spot, with an upcoming matchup against the lowly Bills.

 

If we unexpectedly drop 4 straight, and get to 5-8 (or whatever record mathematically eliminates us), then Idzik should bring in snipers to "punish" anyone successfully converting a first down for the Jets.  At THAT point, there is nothing to gain and only serves the purpose of gaining a lower draft pick (the zeal for winning a KNOWN meaningless game is the reason the Jets ended up with Vernon Gholston and Mark Sanchez instead of Matt Ryan and keeping both our 1st and 2nd round picks in 2009).  

 

But at 5-4 nothing is known, so you try to win every game. However unlikely for all to occur, each of the following is possible:

  • Santonio Holmes plays at an above-average level and behaves himself for 2 months, because he'll be a FA in March.
  • Stephen Hill, Donald Brown, Cumberland, and/or Winslow play useful complementary roles as large targets or even solely in a burner role (obviously not Winslow).
  • Kerley comes back and is productive as well.
  • Ground attack continues to be productive (and perhaps better than it's been with more consistent line play).
  • After the bye, Geno Smith is much more careful with the ball than he was in his first 8 career games.
  • Cromartie plays more like the 2012 Cromartie than the first half of 2013 Cromartie.
  • Milliner starts to "get" the defense and plays like a talented CB (even if he still makes rookie mistakes here & there).
  • Reed rotates in & out, or is just now better - or better-utilized here - than he was in Houston.

Now I'm realistic and know the odds of every item on this checklist panning out are puny.  But one at a time, there is nothing totally impossible listed above.  If most of these items occur as above, we really could make some noise in a season I'd personally written off in March (and then April and then August...).  If all of the above occur - unlikely as that is - we will be a dangerous team no one will want to face.

 

And even if we don't win a SB it won't be for nothing.  Good situations do help attract FAs.  Not as much as top dollar does, but we're going to have that as well.  And a giant stable of some 12 draft picks.  And I won't give a rat's ass if we pick at #25 or #16.  If someone is THAT much of a must-have, we have enough draft pick ammunition to reasonably move up as needed without gutting our whole draft.

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I probably would have, because we all knew that the team was severely flawed and we saw what happened when Tanny went "all in" to try to win.  I'm not saying that by this signing that Idzik went "all in", but as I said earlier I'm just worried that this might cause them to miss out on the WR we all want in the draft.

 

Yes, it's possible the Jets could win the SB, but about as likely as my being able to make love to any one of a myriad of beautiful models or actresses tonight.

 

I understand and respect your position, and when I was younger, would probably have thought the same way myself.

 

The Jets have already improbably  beaten two of the top contenders for the Super Bowl.  They should have swept the Pats, except Smith had a 4th quarter melt down.     The odds are considerably longer of you getting laid by a young attractive  woman then   the Jets winning the SB

 

I guess we watch football games for different reasons.  i always want the Jets to win, and add players that will improve the team even slightly.  Your concerned that if the Jets add a player that might change their record from 7-9 to 9-7 and get them into the play offs NOW, and give them a slight chance at winning a Super Bowl, this year, because they might miss out on that super HOF player that for sure will be taken 3 spots in front of them in April, and cause them to miss out on the guaranteed 2016 Super Bowl.

 

Sorry, that logic just doesn't  make any sense to me.

 

It's all a moot point, Reed is a Jet

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We've already seen that unless the available FAs at WR and TE don't change dramatically that there are no real difference makers there that the Jets are probably able to sign.  You won't care if making the playoffs prevents the Jets from being able to upgrade the WR or TE positions?

 

Even if the team doesn't make the playoffs, it still has been a very successful season.  It won't take away one bit from the accomplishments that Rex and the team have earned.

 

Obviously, I have nothing against the Jets making the playoffs.  It will be fun and exciting if they do.  I just don't want that to hurt or distract them from their plan for building the team long term.  I want to see the Jets have a realistic chance of winning the SB by 2015 or 2016.  In order to do that, they have to get a real #1 WR and upgrade their "weapons" on offense, plus address some of their other holes.  If they can do both, great.  I'm just worried because I've seen the Jets and too many other teams get mired in mediocrity because they win just enough to prevent them from getting the players they need to go to the next level, and teams with worse records wind up leap-frogging those mediocre teams because they are able to get that great talent in the draft that elevates them.

 

 

1.  Making the playoffs ensures Rex Ryan will be back.  This is good news for Jets fans.

 

2.  There's no chance Idzik looks at this roster and thinks that resting on our laurels is a good thing.  Making the playoffs and getting blown out, as you expect will happen, will galvanize Idzik to improve the team so we get to the next level.

 

3.  Winning attracts better free agents, perhaps for less money.  Idzik doesn't strike me as a "overpay a guy just because" like Tannenbaum.  He strikes me as the type that will go after Tier 2 free agents who want to win.

 

4.  Make the postseason and anything can happen.  There are zero negatives to winning more games. 

 

5.  Idzik found Richardson with the 13th pick and landed Geno with the 39th.  If he continues to show an ability to find talent I'm not worried about having a later draft pick.

Edited by Jetsfan80

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So why do teams like Baltimore, and Pittsburgh continually draft good talent even though they quite often make the playoffs and are picking at the back end of the draft? How many suppossedly can't miss play makers drafted at the top end of the draft bust out each year? Good to great WR's and TE's can be found at the back end of the 1st round and else where. It's not where you draft, but who you draft and how may picks you hit on.

 

I'm sure that Idz is not thinking like you are. He, Rex, and the players don't care about where their draft position is going to be next year, they just want to win and that's the way it should be. On top of all that, if there is a player Idz really wants before they pick I have the confidence in him to make a reasonable trade up to get that player. 

 

How are the two teams you cite, Baltimore and PIttsburgh doing this year, and why are they doing so poorly?  They have major holes in their rosters and key positions because they have done so well for so long and missed out on players.  I could be mistaken, but I don't think they've drafted a lot of busts.

 

Yes, talent can be found in all rounds and even as UDFAs and high picks do bust, but the chances of finding the right players are much better drafting high than drafting lower.  Teams have a lot more players to choose from.  I think that's one reason why some teams wind up reaching or paying to much to trade up.  They get desperate.  How many years has it been since the Jets were in the position to get a true franchise QB or stud pass-rushing OLB because their teams won just enough games to move them out of position to get those types?  They've also had some bad luck and made some bad choices to be sure.

 

I'm not convinced that Idzik will trade up often if at all.  He seems a more conservative, stay put and take the BPA type to me.

Edited by JoeKlecko

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Rex Ryan on Ed Reed: "We believe it'll be a great signing for us." #nyj
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Rex on Ed Reed signing: "This had nothing to do with sentiment. ...I'll let u guys make up ur mind up when u see him on Sunday."
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No meetings and no walkthrough, put him in practice with Landry "It was like he hadn't missed a beat," Ryan said. #NFL #Jets
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Reed hasn't "missed a beat" practicing with his old partner, Dawan Landry, Rex said.
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Rex said it looked like Reed hasn't missed a beat in terms of remembering the defense #nyj
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Rex on Reed: "There's different fits for different people. I think Ed will fit in just fine here." #nyj
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Rex says "there's different fits for different teams" -- and naturally, he and the #Jets believe Ed Reed will be a perfect fit here
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Rex says it's only a rumor he pulled a hamstring on his way to Idzik's office when he heard Reed was cut. #nyj
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Ryan heard about Reed being released and jokes he pulled a hamstring running to tell Idzik, who was already on it. #Jets #NFL
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Rex joked "It's only rumored that i pulled a hamstring" when he heard of Reed's release. "I immediately did go up top + talked to John."
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Rex says it's "only a rumor" that he pulled a hamstring when he first heard Reed was released and ran up to see Idzik. #Jets
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Rex said Ed Reed still moves well and #Jets HC expects the safety's transition to be very smooth
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Rex says Reed still moves well, and u factor in knowledge of system, etc. He wanted to see how he was moving, and he looked good to him.
26m
Beat Writer / Columnist
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Ryan said Reed's knowledge of the Jets system was a big factor. #Jets #NFL
26m
Beat Writer / Columnist

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