Really good article on the four likely 1st rd QBs.

[Gastineau Lives]

I have never advocated for trading up for Bortles. I have advocated that for Manziel (obviously) and Bridgewater, because I am 100% convinced that both are Franchise types.

 

Bortles is interesting but not worth the "mother load", like the other 2. If they had to lets say give up a #2 to move up 3 or 4 spots to get him, fine, BUT never the #1's they would have to move to get the top 2.

 

This is my problem with this: You now have two "maybe" QB's and no second rounder.

[Jetsfan80]

This is my problem with this: You now have two "maybe" QB's and no second rounder.

 

We've never been particularly good with 2nd round picks.  Maybe that will change under Idzik.

[JiFtheOracle]

I like how he presents the data, but his rationale for why the numbers are why they are is strictly hypothetical. He doesn't mention that a large reason why Manziel is able to do well against pressure is that he scrambles about for a few seconds buying time to throw to Evans downfield, something that's not likely to happen in the NFL. Same goes for the accuracy in downfield passing: as a vast majority of his longer completions were on broken plays, it's hard to compare that to someone who is sitting in the pocket and lofting it down the sideline. 

 

I think the articles this guy posts for receivers are a bit better, as there's just too much involved in how a QB goes about getting his stats.

 

Right.  Because no QB's in the NFL extend plays with their legs.  It literally has never happened.  Consequently, no WR's know how to get open down field in the NFL on a broken play or a play extended by a QB because of their ability to scramble.  And, there are no receivers as good as Mike Evans in the NFL...so no chance anyone can get open down field.

 

So you're right.  There is no earthly way that Manziel will do something no QB has ever done before.

[slats]

I have never advocated for trading up for Bortles. I have advocated that for Manziel (obviously) and Bridgewater, because I am 100% convinced that both are Franchise types.

 

Bortles is interesting but not worth the "mother load", like the other 2. If they had to lets say give up a #2 to move up 3 or 4 spots to get him, fine, BUT never the #1's they would have to move to get the top 2.

Moving a few spots up should only cost a third rounder - or maybe even less. The fish moved from #12 to #3 last year for a second rounder. Different pricing when QBs are involved, for sure, but the old draft pick trade chart appears to be out the window.

That said, I still wouldn't make that kind of move for a QB unless they're certain he's their guy. I would advocate such a move for one of the big WRs, though.

[joewillie78]

Moving a few spots up should only cost a third rounder - or maybe even less. The fish moved from #12 to #3 last year for a second rounder. Different pricing when QBs are involved, for sure, but the old draft pick trade chart appears to be out the window.

That said, I still wouldn't make that kind of move for a QB unless they're certain he's their guy. I would advocate such a move for one of the big WRs, though.

We differ in opinions on that, but that being said, I agree that if they do pass on QB, then get a GREAT receiver. I still like EVANS from A+M, over all except Watckins who will be long gone.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Well in this scenario all Manziel has to learn is to give the ball to the RB in the read option plays instead of keep it himself, once the gashing up the middle commences the D will make adjustments, and then the outside runs, and middle routes over the LB's will be wide open.  This is something Manziel will have to learn, take what the D gives you when they have a good game plan to specifically contain him, and not be selfish.

 

I do not want my <6' <200 lb quarterback running the read option as a base of their offense. His best chance of being who he is, is to emulate Tony Romo and even he takes too many shots. Obviously being drafted in the top 5 or 10 won't allow it, but the best thing for this kid might be to sit half a year and adjust to the speed of the offense. The last thing you want to see is him trying to do it all on his own and get injured.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Right.  Because no QB's in the NFL extend plays with their legs.  It literally has never happened.  Consequently, no WR's know how to get open down field in the NFL on a broken play or a play extended by a QB because of their ability to scramble.  And, there are no receivers as good as Mike Evans in the NFL...so no chance anyone can get open down field.

 

So you're right.  There is no earthly way that Manziel will do something no QB has ever done before.

 

Your hyperbolic sarcasm aside, the point was that when it was taken away form him, he couldn't function. At all. That was disarming to see. You don't allow Roders or Brees to run around for four or five seconds, they still are uber functional in the pocket, I haven't seen that from Manziel. That's my assessment and has been for the last two years, no amount of your sarcasm is going to change that until the kid proves it in the NFL.

[JiFtheOracle]

Your hyperbolic sarcasm aside, the point was that when it was taken away form him, he couldn't function. At all. That was disarming to see. You don't allow Roders or Brees to run around for four or five seconds, they still are uber functional in the pocket, I haven't seen that from Manziel. That's my assessment and has been for the last two years, no amount of your sarcasm is going to change that until the kid proves it in the NFL.

 

You're point is ridiculous...you literally said, he wont be able to extend plays in the NFL...like its something that never happens.

[Lupz27]

Right.  Because no QB's in the NFL extend plays with their legs.  It literally has never happened.  Consequently, no WR's know how to get open down field in the NFL on a broken play or a play extended by a QB because of their ability to scramble.  And, there are no receivers as good as Mike Evans in the NFL...so no chance anyone can get open down field.

 

So you're right.  There is no earthly way that Manziel will do something no QB has ever done before.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns took Manziel at #4, and then traded up with their 2nd 1st round from the Colts to try, and grab Manziel Evans, could you imagine, Manzie with Evans, Gordon, and Cameron!  Just run around until 1 of the 3 is one on one down field, and throw it up for them to get it.  Sounds like a good plan if you ask me, and if Evans is the goods, who do you double team of the 3?  If you double all 3 that leaves Manziel with 2 other targets, and 5 OL man to kill you with his legs, or a Wide open Brian Hartline, or whoever their starting RB is.  Man I wish I had the GM job over in Cleveland, they are in prime position to become a serious threat if they don't botch this draft!

[BroadwayJoe12]

You're point is ridiculous...you literally said, he wont be able to extend plays in the NFL...like its something that never happens.

 

You're not taking it in the context that I said it. Will he be able to extend plays? Of course. But he won't be able to do so at the level that he did in college, that's fact. The NFL defenses are simply too good, too disciplined and too fast to let his style of play be exactly the same as it was in college, he will have to adapt. Is he capable of being more of a pocket passer who also happens to have the ability to scramble and run? Possibly, but I have yet to see him be able to do that when the latter is taken away, but it's possible. I've made it clear for almost two straight years that while he's one hell of a college quarterback, I don't think his game will translate at all to the NFL and the only thing that will change my mind is seeing him do it on the pro level, that's it. 

[HessStation]

Poor man? In term of running he is more like a homeless mans Cam Newton! Other than the bowl game, Bortles rarely if ever ran read option plays, and it was a great game plan by CFU for 2 reasons, 1. confused the hell out of Baylor as they did not prepare for it, and 2. The HC did right by Bortles knowing it was his last game, and wanted to do whatever he thought would help the kids draft stock, but Bortles won't even be as good as Luck running with the ball in the NFL.

Someone mentioned Locker who's probably a better comparison but a bigger version.

On Cam, Bortles has the same big build and frame, big arm who struggles with accuracy on the deep ball. Probably at his best creating when a play breaks down. Needs to work on footwork. Doesn't shy away from pressure. Wasn't a perfect comparison but they never are. And better than a Luck comparison IMO.

I was thinking what kind of NFL QB he'd be similar too, not what what they did in college. But well said.

[HessStation]

the best Bortles comparison I saw was "Blaine Gabbert 2: Electric Boogaloo"

Full disclosure I have thought to myself, there's no way with a first name like Blake.

[HessStation]

it's interesting to look at this article, which highlights how Derek does poorly under pressure (blitz). Meanwhile that's exactly what David is so poor at, dealing with pressure. Maybe it's a recessive gene.

Texans OL= screw job

[Lupz27]

I do not want my <6' <200 lb quarterback running the read option as a base of their offense. His best chance of being who he is, is to emulate Tony Romo and even he takes too many shots. Obviously being drafted in the top 5 or 10 won't allow it, but the best thing for this kid might be to sit half a year and adjust to the speed of the offense. The last thing you want to see is him trying to do it all on his own and get injured.

 

I just think you severely underestimate Manziel's talent, kid is special, he has that "IT" factor, he knows when, and where to move, and makes everyone around him better.  His passion, and Leadership skills are unquestioned IMO to, something all NFL QB's need.

[Stonehands]

In my mind, there are only 3 QB's in this draft that excite me more than just sticking with Geno.  They are Bridgewater, Manziel and McCarron.  If I can't get one of those three, I wait and draft a Mettenberger or Murray later to have some competition and I use my first 3 picks on offensive skilled players.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Full disclosure I have thought to myself, there's no way with a first name like Blake.

 

 

the best Bortles comparison I saw was "Blaine Gabbert 2: Electric Boogaloo"

 

From a size speed ration, I think it's a decent comparison. Blaine might be a bit taller, 6'4 to Blake's 6'3, but both weighed 230+ and ran/will run in the 4.6s, but Blake's last two years definitely were far superior to Blaine's.  I know Jacksonville was hard-up for a QB, but never knew how he was so touted after just one decent year in college.

[BroadwayJoe12]

I just think you severely underestimate Manziel's talent, kid is special, he has that "IT" factor, he knows when, and where to move, and makes everyone around him better.  His passion, and Leadership skills are unquestioned IMO to, something all NFL QB's need.

 

That post wasn't to diminish Manziel's skills, it was to say that I don't want any of my QBs continuously running the read option when they are small of stature, as he is. I think he has plenty of talent, I just don't like how his current game translates to the NFL,which is why I think he should sit for a bit and get used to the speed of the game, but because of who he is he will be thrust into the starting job right away. Listen, once Brady retires, I'm going to need someone new to despise, I wouldn't mind it being this kid.

[Lupz27]

You're not taking it in the context that I said it. Will he be able to extend plays? Of course. But he won't be able to do so at the level that he did in college, that's fact. The NFL defenses are simply too good, too disciplined and too fast to let his style of play be exactly the same as it was in college, he will have to adapt. Is he capable of being more of a pocket passer who also happens to have the ability to scramble and run? Possibly, but I have yet to see him be able to do that when the latter is taken away, but it's possible. I've made it clear for almost two straight years that while he's one hell of a college quarterback, I don't think his game will translate at all to the NFL and the only thing that will change my mind is seeing him do it on the pro level, that's it. 

 

I think your missing the potential that Manziel has that awareness like a Roethlisberger, I mean there is NOBODY better than Ben in the NFL at extending plays, and Manziel would run 80 yards before Ben ran 40, and Manziel can make someone miss him untouched inside a phone booth, so to say he can't do what he did in college in the pros is not really fair.  I am very curious to see what Manziel runs in the 40, if its in the high 4.5's to 4.6's your talking a cieling of R Wilson, but if its in the 4.4's he could become his own player with no comparisons to what his cieling may be!

[Lupz27]

That post wasn't to diminish Manziel's skills, it was to say that I don't want any of my QBs continuously running the read option when they are small of stature, as he is. I think he has plenty of talent, I just don't like how his current game translates to the NFL,which is why I think he should sit for a bit and get used to the speed of the game, but because of who he is he will be thrust into the starting job right away. Listen, once Brady retires, I'm going to need someone new to despise, I wouldn't mind it being this kid.

 

I don't think anybody is condoning any NFL team to run a read option only offense, but every single team including the Pats run some version of the read option on occasions, just in different ways.  For example Brady has a read run, or throw screen pass plays incorporated into the offense, if the box is stacked Brady pulls the ball out, and hits the (plug in the weekly shifty quick white guy WR) on a bubble screen that nets 5+ yards almost every time, when they take 2 men out of the box Brady will give it to whatever RB is standing next to him.  Almost every NFL team runs some version of the read option at least a few times a game, and some games it's A LOT if they know it's working, and the D hasn't been able to stop it, or adjust.

[HessStation]

From a size speed ration, I think it's a decent comparison. Blaine might be a bit taller, 6'4 to Blake's 6'3, but both weighed 230+ and ran/will run in the 4.6s, but Blake's last two years definitely were far superior to Blaine's. I know Jacksonville was hard-up for a QB, but never knew how he was so touted after just one decent year in college.

I thought Bortles was more around 6'5 but says he's 6'4 230. His frame looks like he'll probably add another 10-15 lbs in the NFL. Gonna guess he runs in the 4.6 range.

[Lupz27]

I thought Bortles was more around 6'5 but says he's 6'4 230. His frame looks like he'll probably add another 10-15 lbs in the NFL. Gonna guess he runs in the 4.6 range.

 

Don't know his exact sizes, but he has the best NFL QB frame in the draft, and is a HUGE reason why he is jumping up draft boards.

[BroadwayJoe12]

I think your missing the potential that Manziel has that awareness like a Roethlisberger, I mean there is NOBODY better than Ben in the NFL at extending plays, and Manziel would run 80 yards before Ben ran 40, and Manziel can make someone miss him untouched inside a phone booth, so to say he can't do what he did in college in the pros is not really fair.  I am very curious to see what Manziel runs in the 40, if its in the high 4.5's to 4.6's your talking a cieling of R Wilson, but if its in the 4.4's he could become his own player with no comparisons to what his cieling may be!

 

 

One of the reasons Big Ben can extend plays is due to his massive size, he can literally shrug defenders off of him. Roethlisberger measured in at 6'5 240 lbs, which is a half foot and forty pounds larger than Manziel. If Johnny is going to extend plays, it's going to be like Romo does, not Roethlisberger. 

[BroadwayJoe12]

I thought Bortles was more around 6'5 but says he's 6'4 230. His frame looks like he'll probably add another 10-15 lbs in the NFL. Gonna guess he runs in the 4.6 range.

 

I'm gonna guess he measures in more around 6'3.5 230, which is large enough. His build looks a lot like Luck to me and apparently according to Tony Pauline, he's the odds on favorite to be drafted by the Texans first overall, not Teddy. 

[HessStation]

I'm gonna guess he measures in more around 6'3.5 230, which is large enough. His build looks a lot like Luck to me and apparently according to Tony Pauline, he's the odds on favorite to be drafted by the Texans first overall, not Teddy.

FYI that's not Tony's mock, it's another scouts from the site.

[pedro55]

I think your missing the potential that Manziel has that awareness like a Roethlisberger, I mean there is NOBODY better than Ben in the NFL at extending plays, and Manziel would run 80 yards before Ben ran 40, and Manziel can make someone miss him untouched inside a phone booth, so to say he can't do what he did in college in the pros is not really fair.  I am very curious to see what Manziel runs in the 40, if its in the high 4.5's to 4.6's your talking a cieling of R Wilson, but if its in the 4.4's he could become his own player with no comparisons to what his cieling may be!

 

  Vick was fast and so is RG3 and both can't stay healthy.   Big Ben was big and couldn't be brought down.  It's a huge difference.  Many of the plays Manziel does now wouldn't work in the NFL or he'd wind up on a stretcher.  I mean he's had some college games where he's been beaten up.   Small kids who need to run to be dangerous don't work so well in the NFL.   So instead of 80 yards, he runs out of bounds after 10.  It's still a dangerous challenge for a defense, but we saw RG3 suck when he couldn't run much this year.   Sometimes there will be games where he needs to pass for 400 yards and have 0 yards rushing.  And he won't be able to run from one sideline to the other.   It's nice to be dangerous, but small QBs can't put their bodies in danger all the time.  Otherwise they wind up missing half the season.

[sourceworx]

One of the reasons Big Ben can extend plays is due to his massive size, he can literally shrug defenders off of him. Roethlisberger measured in at 6'5 240 lbs, which is a half foot and forty pounds larger than Manziel. If Johnny is going to extend plays, it's going to be like Romo does, not Roethlisberger. 

 

Exactly. Ben extends plays because he's hard to bring down.  The guy is bigger than some linebackers.

[SayNoToDMC]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns took Manziel at #4, and then traded up with their 2nd 1st round from the Colts to try, and grab Manziel Evans, could you imagine, Manzie with Evans, Gordon, and Cameron! Just run around until 1 of the 3 is one on one down field, and throw it up for them to get it. Sounds like a good plan if you ask me, and if Evans is the goods, who do you double team of the 3? If you double all 3 that leaves Manziel with 2 other targets, and 5 OL man to kill you with his legs, or a Wide open Brian Hartline, or whoever their starting RB is. Man I wish I had the GM job over in Cleveland, they are in prime position to become a serious threat if they don't botch this draft!

I wish you had the GM job down in Miami

[BroadwayJoe12]

FYI that's not Tony's mock, it's another scouts from the site.

 

I was under the impression that Sanchez was quoting Pauline when he was discussing how O'Brien prefers Bortles as a passer to Teddy and Manziel, even though McNair favors Manziel?

[bitonti]

 O'Brien prefers Bortles as a passer to Teddy and Manziel, even though McNair favors Manziel?

 

if we assume all of this is true, for the sake of discussion, the pick will be Manziel. The owner doesn't let the new mercenary coach pick the franchise QB. 

[HessStation]

I was under the impression that Sanchez was quoting Pauline when he was discussing how O'Brien prefers Bortles as a passer to Teddy and Manziel, even though McNair favors Manziel?

could be, I don't know the inner workings over there but there are a couple different guys with good intel.

Not saying it's wrong just didn't have Tony's name on it.

[BroadwayJoe12]

if we assume all of this is true, for the sake of discussion, the pick will be Manziel. The owner doesn't let the new mercenary coach pick the franchise QB. 

 

I'd have to respectfully disagree there. There's no way McNair hires O'Brien without the discussion of the type of system he wants to run, the personnel he thinks he needs and who's in play with the #1 overall pick. I don't think McNair signs on for O'Brien and then hamstrings him with the first big decision. 

[HessStation]

I'd have to respectfully disagree there. There's no way McNair hires O'Brien without the discussion of the type of system he wants to run, the personnel he thinks he needs and who's in play with the #1 overall pick. I don't think McNair signs on for O'Brien and then hamstrings him with the first big decision.

common sense agrees.

[T0mShane]

I was under the impression that Sanchez was quoting Pauline when he was discussing how O'Brien prefers Bortles as a passer to Teddy and Manziel, even though McNair favors Manziel?

People are assuming that O'Brien wants a big, tall, white QB.

[T0mShane]

I'd have to respectfully disagree there. There's no way McNair hires O'Brien without the discussion of the type of system he wants to run, the personnel he thinks he needs and who's in play with the #1 overall pick. I don't think McNair signs on for O'Brien and then hamstrings him with the first big decision.

I think the Texans take Clowney anyway.

[JiFtheOracle]

You're not taking it in the context that I said it. Will he be able to extend plays? Of course. But he won't be able to do so at the level that he did in college, that's fact. The NFL defenses are simply too good, too disciplined and too fast to let his style of play be exactly the same as it was in college, he will have to adapt. Is he capable of being more of a pocket passer who also happens to have the ability to scramble and run? Possibly, but I have yet to see him be able to do that when the latter is taken away, but it's possible. I've made it clear for almost two straight years that while he's one hell of a college quarterback, I don't think his game will translate at all to the NFL and the only thing that will change my mind is seeing him do it on the pro level, that's it. 

 

Agreed, he will have to adapt and become more of a pocket passer but his ability to extend plays and make throws down the field is what makes him special and I dont see any reason why he wouldnt be able to at the next level.  If other players can, why cant he?