Interesting article re: charting Geno's throws

[T0mShane]

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2087020-what-we-learned-from-jets-qb-geno-smiths-2013-season

I can't c&p it because of all the graphs and videos, but it's a pretty interesting breakdown of what/where Geno is trying to throw.

[Villain The Foe]

What We Learned from Jets QB Geno Smith's 2013 Season

 

The New York Jets' 2013 season often took on the personality of its quarterback: flashing brilliance at times, mired with inconsistency at other times. 

In the NFL, it's never about what you did last year. It's about what you do this year and in future years; However, players must learn from the past in order to succeed in the future.

Geno Smith showed the ability to lead an offense at times in 2013, and he has warranted continued (if temporary) faith as the future of the franchise. He must build off last year, improving in key areas that held him back as a rookie. 

In order to paint the most accurate picture possible, I reviewed each of Geno Smith's throws from the 2013 season. Here's a link to the raw data. Now, let's get a closer look at where Geno excelled and where he struggled in 2013.

 

Route

Raw statistics measure only the result, providing a context-free, process-free look at completions, attempts and completion percentage. The process is an important factor in the result, and the route being run by the receiver is one of the keys in the process of a pass attempt being completed or falling harmlessly to the turf.

Here's a look at each of Smith's aimed passes, broken down by the route run by Smith's intended target.

 

Geno Smith throws, by route (aimed passes only) Route Comp Att Comp % Yds YPA TD INT Drop Rate Checkdown 5 15 33.3 46 3.07 0 1 3 14.86 Circle 5 9 55.5 34 3.78 0 0 1 64.12 Comeback 9 16 56.3 110 6.88 0 2 0 38.02 Corner 7 20 35 167 8.35 1 0 3 82.71 Cross 12 17 70.6 188 11.06 0 1 2 82.48 Drag 8 10 80 80 8 0 0 1 100 Fade 9 24 37.5 287 11.96 3 2 0 88.02 Flare 25 31 80.6 188 6.06 0 0 2 91.94 Freelance (scramble) 1 2 50 18 9 0 0 1 81.25 Go 7 10 70 166 16.6 2 1 1 112.5 Hitch 25 40 62.5 267 6.68 0 1 4 71.56 In 15 20 75 142 7.1 0 1 1 73.3 Out 17 29 58.6 195 6.72 1 2 3 61.71 Out-and-up 1 4 25 40 10 0 0 1 68.75 Pivot 9 14 64.3 71 5.07 2 0 1 116.37 Post 5 12 41.7 111 9.25 0 2 0 35.76 Screen 34 38 89.5 230 6.05 0 1 1 80.92 Seam 2 6 33.3 38 6.33 1 2 0 56.25 Shovel pass 2 2 100 4 2 0 0 0 79.17 Skinny post 5 15 33.3 155 10.33 1 3 0 55.56 Slant 17 40 42.5 178 4.45 1 2 7 43.54 Sluggo 1 2 50 38 19 0 0 0 95.83 Stick 15 21 71.4 187 8.9 0 0 3 98.71 Swing 10 15 66.6 60 4 0 0 2 74.31 Wheel 2 3 66.6 28 9.33 0 0 0 96.53

Source: Bleacher Report research

 

Screens were a big part of the Jets offense in 2013, and they did a good job of being balanced in the screen game. Smith completed 15 screens to wide receivers, 16 to running backs and three to tight ends.

That's a testament to Marty Mornhinweg for tailoring the offense to Smith without becoming predictable. As a senior at West Virginia, Smith may have padded his stats a bit with screens, completing 112 of them, according to Sharon Katz of ESPN Stats & Information. They also accumulated 2,459 yards after the catch (4,292 total passing yards). 

Of course, the Jets had to scale the screen game back a bit, but they will have to be more effective if they want to continue to implement it—only 10 of their screens gained 10 or more yards. 

They found other ways to give Smith some easy reads.

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

Here is one particular route combination that appeared frequently. The "X" receiver on the far side of the field runs a vertical route and one or two receivers on the inside (sometimes a slot receiver, sometimes a tight end, sometimes one of each and sometimes two slot receivers) run a five-yard out route toward the sideline.

This combination is designed to free up the sideline to complete one of the two out routes. 

One surprising area of struggle for Smith was on slants. It is supposed to be a high-percentage throw, but Smith completed only 17 of 40 attempted slants (42.5 percent). If Jets receivers had hung onto their seven drops (the most of any route), Smith would have completed 24 of 40 slants (60 percent). Some of those could have been put in a better spot (two were ahead of the receiver, one was behind) but four of the seven drops were perfectly placed passes.

 

Formations

Another interesting tidbit to come from the ESPN Stats & Info article linked above:

"Smith attempted over 96 percent of his passes out of a shotgun or pistol formation in his career [at West Virginia]. The NFL is trending towards more spread tendencies, but the average NFL quarterback still attempted over a third of his passes after taking a snap from under center."

 

Geno Smith throws, by alignment QB alignment Comp Att Comp % Yds YPA TD INT Drop Rate Center 34 68 50 224 3.29 1 2 4 50.1 Shotgun 204 358 56.9 2605 7.27 11 19 31 68 Pistol 9 16 56.25 112 7 0 0 1 78.1 Wide receiver (Wildcat) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 39.6

Source: Bleacher Report research

 

As a rookie, only 68 of Smith's 443 pass attempts (15.3 percent) came from under center. The rest were from either a shotgun or pistol formation (with one exception, on a reverse to Smith, who lined up at receiver before taking a handoff from Bilal Powell in the Wildcat).

One concern with Smith coming out of West Virginia was his lack of experience taking snaps from center. As a result, he does not have a lot of practice with his footwork, which is sloppy at times.

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

Notice here, he doesn't take steps so much as he bounces back in the pocket. 

Shotgun and pistol formations can mask some footwork issues, since the quarterback can simply take the snap and already be in position to read the defense. In order for the Jets to open up the whole offense, Smith will have to improve his footwork and his ability to read a defense while dropping back to throw. That being said, the Jets can't expect Smith to get better in those areas unless he has real-time practice in games.

 

Under Pressure

Sometimes, Smith's poor footwork was a result of pressure around him. It negatively impacted his performance.

 

Geno Smith under pressure Pressure Comp Att Comp % Yds YPA TD INT Drop Rate Yes 95 207 45.9 1172 5.66 3 7 16 54.7 No 152 235 64.7 1856 7.9 9 14 20 76.8

Source: Bleacher Report research

 

It can be difficult to get a pass in the right place when there's a defender standing in your way when trying to step into a throw.

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

That's what happened here against the Miami Dolphins. 

Right guard Willie Colon got bull rushed back into Smith's lap, diminishing his ability to step into the throw. Notice how Smith's front foot takes a short step before he can release the pass. That results in him getting less than the ideal amount of arm behind the throw. 

He was still able to complete the pass, but the effects are clear.

Sometimes, it's a matter of holding onto the ball too long.

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

If he had gotten the ball out quicker on this play, the pressure may have not had a chance to close in on him and bring him down for the sack. 

When he held the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, he was under pressure 196 of 281 times he dropped back to throw (69.8 percent), and he completed 52.6 percent of his passes when holding the ball that long. When he held the ball for 2.5 seconds or fewer, he was pressured 80 of 234 drop-backs (34.1 percent), completing 59.1 percent of his passes.

When Smith can throw in rhythm, he is very effective. When things start to break down, that's where he needs to improve. 

 

Play action

One theme I kept noticing was Geno Smith's play-action. It's not very misleading—that is to say, he has to work on being more convincing with the fake in order for it to be effective.

Here's an example of one of Smith's early-season play-action fakes. 

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

Notice that the ball doesn't stay extended very long, and he's holding it out with both hands. The play-action fake should look identical to a hand-off until the very moment at which the ball is supposed to be nestled in the arms of the running back.

For comparison, here's an example of a handoff from the same game.

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

To be fair, Smith's play-action fakes got better over the course of the season. Here's an example of an effective play-action.

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

Notice how the linebackers are frozen, forced to come up to defend the run in case the running back gets the ball. They are caught out of position by the apparent run, and Smith buys himself some room to make the throw.

By the numbers, Smith was not very good on play-action passes.

 

Geno Smith throws, by play action Play action? Comp Att Comp % Yds YPA TD INT Drop Rate Yes 51 95 53.7 631 6.64 1 4 5 60.5 No 196 348 56.3 2404 6.91 11 17 31 67.9

Source: Bleacher Report research

 

In fact, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Smith's passer rating ranked 39th out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks. His completion percentage ranked 37th.

As a team, the Jets had the league's fifth-most rush attempts. Some of those were Wildcat runs, some were read-option runs by Smith, but as a running football team, the Jets should have been much more effective in the play-action passing game.

This is easily correctable. Smith just has to concentrate on "selling" the fake in a more convincing manner—by making it look like an actualhandoff, instead of just something he's doing instead of handing it off—and he could improve dramatically in this area.

 

Distance

 

Geno Smith throws, by distance traveled Yards downfield Comp Att Comp % Yds YPA TD INT Drop Rate Behind LOS 42 53 79.2 260 4.9 0 0 6 87.1 0-9 130 213 61 1118 5.2 6 9 23 66.6 10-19 48 91 52.7 798 8.8 2 5 5 67 20+ 27 58 46.6 852 14.7 4 7 2 76.4

Source: Bleacher Report research

 

Smith helped pad his stats with good numbers throwing short and behind the line of scrimmage. 

However, some of his most impressive work came on deep passes. 

We've mentioned play action passing and footwork as areas where Smith needs work. It all came together on this play against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11.

 

Source: NFL Game Rewind 

 

Smith drives the ball to Santonio Holmes on the sluggo (slant-and-go) route, hitting the receiver in stride despite a little pressure in his face.

A subtle play action, solid footwork to get back in the pocket and a beautiful throw downfield.

These are the kinds of flashes we saw from Smith on a semi-regular basis. With an increased attention to detail, better chemistry with his receivers and a better understanding of the offense, Smith could soar in 2014. 

[Larz]

15 attempted checkdowns......

 

3 drops, 1 pick and 5 completions for 46 yards

 

 

**** it, go deep geno !!!!!

[Villain The Foe]

15 attempted checkdowns......

 

3 drops, 1 pick and 5 completions for 46 yards

 

 

**** it, go deep geno !!!!!

True. Geno is pretty impressive deep. The line just has to hold up for those 3 seconds. Im really hoping that Brian Winters steps up and Dakota Dozier becomes a stud because our G position is suspect. The last time that we can say that D'Brick had an outstanding season he had a credible guard next to him. 

[Larz]

yeah villian, the OG situation is a worry, heck the o-line depth overall is a concern. 

 

7/10 on go routes for 166 yards and a rating of 112 with 2 TD's.   more of this please, lol

[jgb]

So... He stinks?

[Bugg]

So... He stinks?

Yup.

His play action fake fools nobody. So the idea an improved running attack will solve everything is a pipe dream. On the Pats play action that did work, wonder what the score was, such the LBs didn't bite because the Jets were so far behind why bother worrying about another crappy running play that goes nowhere. The one thing this kind of breakdown (which is still a great job) doesn't account for is the game situation, score, time, down and distance.Whcih is not a criticism, merely noting incorporating more variables is hard to do and might warp some of the trends and tendencies the Jets had. Nobody is scared of this offense, and that will be the case in 2014. Oh, he's gonna throw a pass-big deal, he's terrible anyway.

[pointman]

All I know is that I enjoyed that last gif of Holmes getting knocked 7 yards out of bounds. Love it.

[Larz]

All I know is that I enjoyed that last gif of Holmes getting knocked 7 yards out of bounds. Love it.

 

and if geno doesn't stare the rte down, the safety never gets there.  that dude covered a lot of ground

[pointman]

and if geno doesn't stare the rte down, the safety never gets there.  that dude covered a lot of ground

What can we learn from this? Holmes sucks and he is slow.

[jgb]

Yup.His play action fake fools nobody. So the idea an improved running attack will solve everything is a pipe dream. On the Pats play action that did work, wonder what the score was, such the LBs didn't bite because the Jets were so far behind why bother worrying about another crappy running play that goes nowhere. The one thing this kind of breakdown (which is still a great job) doesn't account for is the game situation, score, time, down and distance.Whcih is not a criticism, merely noting incorporating more variables is hard to do and might warp some of the trends and tendencies the Jets had. Nobody is scared of this offense, and that will be the case in 2014. Oh, he's gonna throw a pass-big deal, he's terrible anyway.

Complete failure.. Vick gonna destroy him so badly they will hsve to start him.

[Gastineau Lives]

Listen to JetNation radio and see how a guy who's only body of work is a year in which he finished 39th out of 41 qualified QB's in passer rating is so much better than Michael Vick as to be ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

[T0mShane]

Listen to JetNation radio and see how a guy who's only body of work is a year in which he finished 39th out of 41 qualified QB's in passer rating is so much better than Michael Vick as to be ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

Vick sucks

[T0mShane]

:blows conch:

[Larz]

Complete failure.. Vick gonna destroy him so badly they will hsve to start him.

 

poopy all better now ?

[Bugg]

This could be a companion piece. Basic idea-the Jets winning 8 games was an anomaly.

"At the top of the list to decline are the New York Jets."

http://grantland.com

/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/

Numbers Rarely Lie

Predicting the 2014 NFL season — with the help of a few key stats.

by Bill Barnwell on May 30, 2014

An essential part of preparing for the 2014 NFL season is looking back at what just happened. About all I remember at this point from 2013 is the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl and Ron Rivera acting out that fan fiction I wrote about the coach who always goes for it. There’s a lot more to take away from 2013, but that’s hard to do with any sort of perspective while free agency and the draft are sucking up all the oxygen. But now that we’re past the Sturm und Drang of Johnny in Vegas and Teddy’s pro day, it’s time to take a look at the bigger picture of 2013 to understand how it will influence 2014.

That can mean only one thing … nerdy stats! There are several underlying numbers that serve a useful role in measuring how a team will play. But — and let’s repeat this all together again, because it only makes us stronger — the NFL’s 16-game season is a teeny-tiny sample, and there are myriad aspects of the game that have no predictive value for the future. (Think about how the 2012 Packers were affected by their run-in with the replacement officials.) There’s also the human factor. You know: We can be pretty sure the Giants are likely to avoid suffering the most injuries in the league next year, but if Eli Manning decides to retire and they’re stuck with Ryan Nassib, their performance is likely to be terrible anyway.

That said, there are a lot of really useful statistics that can help us successfully gamb— er, predict what will happen in the NFL next season. Let’s meet them, shall we?1

Point Differential

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1. You can read more about many of these stats and how they’re derived in our primer from 2012.

It’s true in just about every sport: Point differential is a better predictor of a team’s win-loss record than its previous win-loss record. Wins aren’t created equal. A three-point victory over the Jaguars at home isn’t the same as blowing out the 49ers by 28 points at Candlestick. (Side note: It’s going to be really weird to have to start saying “Levi’s” next year.) Win-loss record gives us only 16 observations to project 2014 performance. If you make the case that a team can give up a touchdown or score one on every single play, point differential allows for thousands of observations in a single season.

How did it project 2013? Reasonably well, with one notable exception: the Colts. The 2012 Indianapolis squad went 11-5 while being outscored by 30 points, a performance that history suggested was virtually unrepeatable. But with Andrew Luck taking a step forward and the AFC South collapsing into a smoldering tire fire, the Colts went 11-5 again in 2013, this time outscoring their opposition by 55.

Besides Indianapolis, the teams with wacky point differentials mostly behaved as we expected. The four other clubs that outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by more than one win in 2012 were the Falcons, Texans, Titans, and Vikings. Those teams were 41-23 during their glorious 2012 campaigns; last year, their combined record was a dismal 18-45-1. Seven teams underperformed their Pythagorean expectation by at least one win in 2012, and while the Browns and Giants declined, the Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Chargers, and Seahawks improved. Those seven improved by an average of 1.4 wins over their previous record in 2012.

What teams should this affect in 2014?

Improve

Pyth Diff

Decline

Pyth Diff

Texans -2.2 Jets +2.6

Falcons -1.9 Colts +1.6

Washington -1.8 Patriots +1.5

Browns -1.5 Giants +1.4

Lions -1.5 Broncos +1.3

One obvious candidate for improvement is Houston. The Texans’ season collapsed after a 2-0 start, but they were competitive in many of their 14 losses. They’ll benefit from a new head coach and better quarterback play, but they also weren’t as bad as their record suggests. The same is true for Atlanta, which shockingly fell to a 4-12 season. The numbers suggested that the Falcons would decline after a 13-3 season in which they had the point differential of an 11-win team, but nobody could have seen that kind of season coming.

On the flip side, there are those dang Colts. Indianapolis went from being the “luckiest” team in the league in 2012 to the second-luckiest last year. Denver and New England, helmed by legendary quarterbacks, got more wins out of their point differentials than you might expect. It’s entirely possible that having a superstar quarterback who comes up with big plays when you need them can make it easier to outperform your point differential year after year — then again, you could have said that about Matt Ryan and the Falcons until last year. At the top of the list to decline are the New York Jets. More on them in a little bit.

Record in One-Touchdown Games

It’s almost impossible to win a large percentage of close games in the NFL. Even if there was something unique about your team that gave it a late competitive edge, the attrition rate in football is so high as to render many of those advantages moot over a time frame of any significance. Great teams stay great by avoiding close games altogether — they just blow out the competition. Teams with a gap between their point differential and their win-loss record often have that gap come down to their performance in close games, so you’ll see some familiar faces from the last list here.

How did it project 2013? How does “great … except for the Colts” sound again? This stat successfully predicted that the records of teams like Atlanta (7-2 in one-touchdown games in 2012, 3-7 in 2013), Houston (5-0 in 2012, 2-9 in 2013), and Minnesota (5-1 in 2012, 4-4-1 in 2013) were unsustainable, but the 9-1 Colts went 5-1 in one-score games in 2013. Including the playoffs, Andrew Luck is now 15-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer during his pro career.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Well, I mean, Coby Fleener is 13-2 in those games (he missed four games his rookie season) but it seems like that has more to do with Luck (and luck) than Fleener.

The close-games metric also highlighted some major pending improvements; the Panthers, who went 2-12 (1-7 in 2012) during Ron Rivera and Cam Newton’s first two years with the team in those games, lost their first two games in 2013 by a combined six points before Rivera decided to make his run for TYFNC MVP. Carolina went 5-0 in one-score games the rest of the way. The Chargers, 1-5 in one-score games during the final year of Norvitude, improved to 4-5 in those games last year. That’s not incredible, but even regression toward the mean was enough to push them into the playoffs. The Lions and the Jaguars needed more help than simple close-game luck, but after going a combined 5-13 in one-touchdown games in 2012, they did manage to go 7-8 in 2013.

What teams should this affect in 2014?

Improve

W-L Record

Decline

W-L Record

Texans 2-9 Jets 5-1

Steelers 2-5 Colts 5-1

Washington 2-6 Panthers 5-2

Falcons 3-7 Patriots 7-4

Lions 3-6 Eagles 3-1

Our poor friends in Houston head this list, too. Remember: The Texans had second-half leads on the Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts, and Patriots last year. They blew them all, of course, but that they were able to stay competitive with teams of that caliber is a good omen for their future performance. Maybe things are better with a healthy Arian Foster running out the clock instead of trolling cat owners. We’ll see. Atlanta, Detroit, and Pittsburgh are all teams without effective running games that struggled to finish deep into the fourth quarter, too.

You might believe that Andrew Luck is some kind of witch in close games. After that fumble recovery at the goal line against the Chiefs in the wild-card round, I wouldn’t argue with you. But Geno Smith and the Jets? Noooope. Their close wins included games that were extended by a pair of questionable personal foul calls on Lavonte David (Bucs, Week 1) and Chris Jones (Patriots, Week 7); wipe those two incredibly unlikely calls off the books and the Jets are 3-3 in close games. Carolina’s performance in one-score contests is probably going to settle somewhere between the 2-14 start to the Rivera era and the 5-0 finish from last year. And the Eagles went 3-1 in close games during the regular season, only to lose a two-point squeaker to the Saints in the wild-card round.

Turnover Margin

Sit through five insufferable minutes of NFL coverage and you’ll hear somebody harp on the value of turnovers at least once. They’re important, and good teams do tend to win the turnover battle, but there’s also a certain amount of randomness and variance from year to year. Most notably, teams at the extreme ends of the turnover spectrum are unable to sustain that level in consecutive campaigns.

How did it project 2013? Very well. The two teams that stood out like a sore thumb at the bottom of the turnover rankings were the Chiefs and Eagles; they were each at minus-24 in 2012, and nobody else was worse than minus-16. In 2013, much of their success was driven by a dramatic shift in this metric. The Chiefs had the second-best turnover margin in football at plus-18, while the Eagles were fourth with a plus-12 figure. Kansas City’s improvement of 42 turnovers is the most anybody’s improved in a single season since the strike year of 1987. The Jets (minus-14) and Lions (minus-12) stayed roughly the same, but the Cowboys and even those absurdly lucky Colts — granted, in the one category where simple regression might have expected them to improve — saw their turnover margin improve by 16 or more from 2012 to 2013.

The five teams at the top of the turnover charts were unable to repeat in 2013, each falling off by at least 15. That included the Patriots, Bears, Giants, and Falcons — but the most interesting case was Washington. A huge chunk of its 2012 success came by avoiding turnovers on offense; Washington turned the ball over a league-low 14 times in 2012. It hit that figure by Week 8 of 2013, and by the time Kirk Cousins had inflated his trade value in December, the D.C. team had turned the ball over 34 times, tied with the Lions for the second-worst rate in football.

What teams should this affect in 2014?

Improve

TO Margin

Decline

TO Margin

Texans -20 Seahawks +20

Giants -15 Chiefs +18

Jets -14 Colts +13

Vikings -12 Eagles +12

Lions -12 49ers +11

I broke down how 2012’s top five teams in turnover margin did in 2013. The sixth team was Seattle, which improved to plus-20 and won the Super Bowl. The seventh? Houston, which went from a plus-12 figure in 2012 to the bottom of the table in 2013. You’re probably thinking about all those Matt Schaub pick-sixes right now (and more on them in a second), but the defense was actually worse; Houston was 26th in the league in giveaways, but their 11 takeaways were dead last. A healthier secondary and the arrival of Jadeveon Clowney should create more turnovers for Houston in 2014.

The Jets are also going to be a fascinating study. For as much as I went on about their lucky performance in close games, they were incredibly unlucky in terms of fumble recoveries, as Gang Green picked up just 30.3 percent of the fumbles in their games last year, the league’s lowest rate by a comfortable margin. (The Cowboys, who don’t exactly need more bad news right now, paced the league by recovering 67.6 percent of loose balls in their games.)

There are some very good teams on the “decline” side of the ledger, and I expect most of them to be good again in 2014, but they probably won’t be quite as good as they were a year ago. Take the 49ers, for example: They posted a ridiculous plus-28 turnover margin in 2011. With much of the same personnel the following year, their margin was plus-nine; still good, but not stratospheric.3 The Seahawks will still probably post another good number next year, but it almost surely won’t be in the plus-20 range.

Defensive Touchdowns Allowed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Before you go nuts, it was plus-four that season with Alex Smith and plus-five with Colin Kaepernick.

There’s virtually no consistency in terms of the number of points your offense gives up on defensive touchdowns. The year-to-year correlation in points “allowed” by an offense from 1999 to 2013 is 0.008. In other words: What happened last year is of no predictive value whatsoever. It can also have a pretty large impact on the way your defense looks, too. The ’99 Dolphins are the best example. They allowed 336 points, the 19th-best total in the league. But their offense allowed a staggering nine touchdowns that season, including seven pick-sixes from Dan Marino and Damon Huard. Strip out those 54 points and they were a great defense; Miami was actually fifth in DVOA that year, and when its offense allowed only a single touchdown return the following season, the Dolphins returned to third in the league in scoring defense.

How did this metric project 2013? Very well, although I don’t think this has quite as large of an impact on team performance as the measures we’ve just run through. There were six teams that allowed five defensive return touchdowns or more in 2012; the Cardinals, Lions, Jaguars, Chiefs, Eagles, and Titans cut that figure by more than half, down to an average of 14.7 points per offense. There were five offenses in 2012 that allowed fewer than 10 points on returns; they combined to allow an average of 21.2 points on returns last year.

The stingiest offense in terms of giving away points in 2012 belonged to the Houston Texans, who gave up just a single safety while not allowing a single fumble or interception return for a touchdown all regular season. That’s two points. How did they do in avoiding pick-sixes in 2013 … oh dear.

What teams should this affect in 2014?

Improve

TO Pts Allowed

Decline

TO Pts Allowed

Bears 44 Chiefs 2

Texans 38 49ers 2

Giants 38 Panthers 4

Jets 36 Seahawks 6

Rams 32 Cardinals 8

Bet you thought the Texans would be at the top of that list, too! Well, so did I, but we remember that Houston’s pick-sixes were clumped together. They came in five consecutive games from Week 2 through Week 6; perhaps out of sheer terror, Houston’s quarterbacks didn’t throw a single pick-six the rest of the way, and the Texans allowed only a fumble recovery for a touchdown and a lone safety after their bye. Chicago instead wins the dubious prize, with three pick-sixes and a whopping four fumble returns for touchdowns on the way to 44 points allowed. Houston’s quarterbacks ended up tied with the Jets, Giants, and Rams as league leaders with five pick-sixes. It’s no surprise that the league leaders in fewest defensive touchdowns allowed are run-heavy teams like the Chiefs and 49ers, and those teams are unlikely to be touchdown-friendly in 2014, but all it takes is one or two lapses of concentration to fall to the middle of the pack in this category.

The Bottom Line

I could easily go on with another half-dozen statistics — defensive touchdowns scored, strength of schedule, fumble-recovery rates, injury totals, and team age all come to mind — but you get the picture. There’s still plenty of time to run through the numbers, and I’ll highlight plenty more findings as we get closer to the 2014 campaign. But, in looking at the underlying performances and luck from last season, we can draw a couple of conclusions.

First, the Texans are primed for an immediate comeback toward the middle of the NFL pack, even if the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Savage they’ll run out at quarterback might preclude them from being a playoff contender. Virtually every metric I can find suggests they were an underrated and unlucky team last year, and that’s without considering how they repeatedly juggled quarterbacks and quit on their coach. With even average luck next year, Houston should be a 7-9 or 8-8 team. And if it has a few bounces break its way — picture Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt wishboning Andrew Luck — the Texans could very well be next year’s surprise playoff team. Washington and Atlanta were also among 2013’s more unlucky teams.

Some teams will also fall. The Chiefs are likely to take a step backward after their remarkable sprint to the playoffs. Indianapolis would be on that list again, albeit not as notably as it was a year ago. Even the defending champs should slip a bit; the Seahawks will still be a very good team in 2014, but 13-3 for a second consecutive season might be tough, especially given how arduous the rest of the NFC West has become.

Oh, and the Jets? As usual, nobody knows what’s happening there. My only suggestion is that it’s better to be pleasantly surprised than it is to be wildly disappointed

[#27TheDominator]

They like to run screens and got no YAC.  The went out and got Johnson and Amaro.  That should help.

 

It's no surprise his play action fake sucked, especially at the start of the season.  As discussed, Geno has trouble starting under center.  For PA he has to concentrate on taking the snap under center and dropping back.  Being deceptive has to take a back seat.

[Larz]

Oh, and the Jets? As usual, nobody knows what’s happening there. My only suggestion is that it’s better to be pleasantly surprised than it is to be wildly disappointed

 

nerdy stats indeed, lol

 

NFL teams average 20% turnover from year to year, using last years numbers is just silly

[Lizard King]

Tldr. Bottom line is that it says Geno sucks, right?

[SickJetFan]

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2087020-what-we-learned-from-jets-qb-geno-smiths-2013-season

I can't c&p it because of all the graphs and videos, but it's a pretty interesting breakdown of what/where Geno is trying to throw.

super gay... he sucks....embrace the horror.

[flgreen]

and if geno doesn't stare the rte down, the safety never gets there.  that dude covered a lot of ground

 

Yeah.  In all the video's it is obvious what Smith's problems are.  One as pointed out, he has horrible footwork.  Two, in all of them he never looks off the receiver he is throwing to.

 

The good news is both of these problems are fixable.  If he hired a QB coach in the off season and worked hard on the flaws we might be seeing a new Geno Smith this year.  If he didn't, we'll probably be seeing Vick this year  

[slats]

Yeah. In all the video's it is obvious what Smith's problems are. One as pointed out, he has horrible footwork. Two, in all of them he never looks off the receiver he is throwing to.

The good news is both of these problems are fixable. If he hired a QB coach in the off season and worked hard on the flaws we might be seeing a new Geno Smith this year. If he didn't, we'll probably be seeing Vick this year

Geno heads to Florida, works with QB guru

February, 18, 2014

FEB 18 3:55PM ET

By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com

Geno Smith prepared for the NFL scouting combine by working out with quarterback guru Chris Weinke at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla. A year later, Smith is taking the same approach to his offseason.

The New York Jets' quarterback was seen Monday at IMG, working in a private session with Weinke, IMG's director of football operations. You probably remember Weinke as the former Heisman Trophy winner from Florida State. Smith has been working with Weinke in recent days, trying to stay sharp and fine-tuning his throwing mechanics. Weinke also is tutoring Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, one of the top prospects in the upcoming draft.

If you're a Jets fan, it's always encouraging to hear your quarterback is working on his own in an effort to improve. Smith "has come a million miles" from the start of his rookie season, Rex Ryan said recently, but it's obvious that he still has a ways to go. The Jets' offseason program doesn't begin until early April, so Smith is taking a proactive approach as he prepares for his second season.

At least he's not in New Jersey, stuck inside because of the winter weather.

A year ago, Smith went into the combine thinking he had a chance to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. In an interview at IMG last February, he told USA Today, "I feel like I am the best" quarterback in the draft "and [given] what I've done up until this point, I do have a case for being the No. 1 overall pick."

Obviously, it didn't turn out that way. Smith fell to 39th, but he ended up starting every game. Now he waits as the Jets embark on an offseason in which they're likely to add a quarterback.

[flgreen]

Geno heads to Florida, works with QB guru

February, 18, 2014

FEB 18 3:55PM ET

By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com

Geno Smith prepared for the NFL scouting combine by working out with quarterback guru Chris Weinke at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla. A year later, Smith is taking the same approach to his offseason.

The New York Jets' quarterback was seen Monday at IMG, working in a private session with Weinke, IMG's director of football operations. You probably remember Weinke as the former Heisman Trophy winner from Florida State. Smith has been working with Weinke in recent days, trying to stay sharp and fine-tuning his throwing mechanics. Weinke also is tutoring Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, one of the top prospects in the upcoming draft.

If you're a Jets fan, it's always encouraging to hear your quarterback is working on his own in an effort to improve. Smith "has come a million miles" from the start of his rookie season, Rex Ryan said recently, but it's obvious that he still has a ways to go. The Jets' offseason program doesn't begin until early April, so Smith is taking a proactive approach as he prepares for his second season.

At least he's not in New Jersey, stuck inside because of the winter weather.

A year ago, Smith went into the combine thinking he had a chance to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. In an interview at IMG last February, he told USA Today, "I feel like I am the best" quarterback in the draft "and [given] what I've done up until this point, I do have a case for being the No. 1 overall pick."

Obviously, it didn't turn out that way. Smith fell to 39th, but he ended up starting every game. Now he waits as the Jets embark on an offseason in which they're likely to add a quarterback.

 

That's very good to hear.  At least we know he is trying to improve his game.  From the very brief info we have gotten out of the OTA's he seems to have improved somewhat.  

 

I don't particularly like Smith as a QB, but it is certainly in the best interest of the Jets, and for their fans, for him to come out  this summer and take command of the starting job.  

 

We'll see what happens